Book Reviews by Svetlana Nikoloska
THE EFFECT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE ON GLOBAL ACTIVITY AND INFLATION, 2022
Abstract
Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. Investors, ma... more Abstract
Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war." Some economic effects are already materializing. The economies of Russia and Ukraine are contracting sharply as a direct result of the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Commodity markets are in turmoil and financial markets have been highly volatile since the start of the conflict. In light of these developments, a key question is: How much will geopolitical tensions weigh on economic activity in 2022 and beyond? To answer this question, we first quantify the recent rise in geopolitical risks using two measures based on textual analysis: one focusing on newspapers articles, and another constructed from transcripts of firms' earnings calls.
Armed with these numerical measures, we use an econometric model and
recent data to provide empirical evidence on the global macroeconomic
effects of movements in geopolitical risk. Our main result suggests that the rise in geopolitical risks seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have non-negligible macroeconomic effects in 2022. Relative to a no-war counterfactual, the model sees the war as reducing the level of global GDP by about 1.5 percent and leading to a rise in global inflation of about 1.3 percentage points. The adverse effects of geopolitical risks in the model operate through lower consumer sentiment, higher commodity prices, and tighter financial conditions. Additionally, firm-level indicators suggest that a hit to the European economies will likely be greatest, especially in goodsproducing industries.
Keywords: War, Inflation, geopolitical, GDP
Papers by Svetlana Nikoloska
The criminal offenses "Abuse of official position or authority" and "Money laundering and other p... more The criminal offenses "Abuse of official position or authority" and "Money laundering and other proceeds of crime" are in the group of economic-financial crimes and they have their criminalistics characteristics and may be related to each other in a criminalistics situation in cases where the illegal property gains, gained from abuses, are legalized through money laundering. These are complex criminalistics situations in which it is important to distinguish the criminal behavior of the previous crime from the criminal behavior of money laundering, especially because the Macedonian legislator provides for the crime of abuse of officials in financial institutions involved in the process of money laundering or disclosing information about a secret financial investigation. This paper will analyze the criminal-legal characteristics of the two crimes, analyzing the criminalistics characteristics especially from the aspect of their connection. The study of these two crimes is important because the crime "Abuse of official position and authority" is the most committed economic-financial crime, with which the perpetrators gain high criminal proceeds that are subject to money laundering, and it will be analyzed through a case from the Macedonian criminal practice. The purpose of the paper is to obtain indicators for real connection of the mentioned crimes, indicators for the status of perpetrators, the manner of execution, and the used money laundering schemes, but also indicators for actions taken to secure and confiscate illegally acquired property.
Horizonti. Serija A. Opštestveni i humanistički nauki, Nov 20, 2018
Cyber crime is a specific form of criminality with a number of emergent forms where the computer ... more Cyber crime is a specific form of criminality with a number of emergent forms where the computer appears as a means or object of a criminal attack. The quality of the provided evidence depends on the initiation of a criminal procedure against perpetrators of criminal offenses in the area of cyber crime. Cyber crime constitutes crimes that have a digital dimension, which means that the evidence pointing to a specific crime and its perpetrator are in digital form. The entire process of criminal investigation or investigation is followed by a system of measures and actions for providing electronic evidence, their correlation with other material evidence and connection with suspected perpetrators as a prerequisite for complete clarification and initiation of criminal proceedings. The subject of this paper is the study of electronic evidence, the process of their provision through the application of legal measures and actions and the rules of digital forensics and case analysis from the Macedonian criminal practice.
Zbornik sažetaka, May 15, 2015
Ekonomsko-financijski kriminalitet je specifičan oblik kriminalne aktivnosti prestupnika koji zlo... more Ekonomsko-financijski kriminalitet je specifičan oblik kriminalne aktivnosti prestupnika koji zloupotrebljavaju službena ovlašćenja, status i profesionalnu stručnost i iskustvo za sticanje lične imovine i nezakonito bogaćenje. Ovo je criminal koji prema kriminalističkim karakteristikama, nije vidljiv, ali je uočljiv, uočljivo je "bogatstvo", ili "bogatstvo odaje" prestupnike. Baš zbog toga ovaj criminal je teško otkriti, obezbediti indicije, a za sam procesu razjašnjenja potrebne su profesionalno, stručno znanje, iskustvo i veština službenih lica koji rade u organima progona. Pošto se radi o kriminalitetu gde treba da se istraži i nezakonito bogatstvo, neophodna su profesionalna znanja, vještine i iskustvo u finansijskom istraživanju. Pronalaženje, obezbeđenje kriminalnih prinosa omogućava konfiskaciju svega što je kriminalac stekano nezanonskim radom i zloupotrebama. U ovom se proučava potreba o permanentnoj edukaciji službenih lica u organima progona u Republici Makedoniji.
Bezbednosni dijalozi, 2017
Horizonti. Serija A. Opštestveni i humanistički nauki, Dec 15, 2017
THE EURO-ATLANTIC VALUES IN THE BALKAN COUNTRIES
Computer forensics is increasingly finding its place in the criminal investigation of criminal of... more Computer forensics is increasingly finding its place in the criminal investigation of criminal offenses in order to shed light on and provide the evidence necessary to initiate criminal proceedings against the perpetrators of crimes that have misused computer technology in criminal activities. Criminal investigation is a procedure of using tactics, techniques and methods aimed at detecting, clarifying and providing evidence through legally prescribed operational-tactical measures and actions, investigative actions and special investigative measures. The Macedonian legislator in the criminal procedural legislation envisages measures and actions for providing electronic evidence which is relevant in computer crimes, but also in specific criminal situations electronic evidence has its meaning in the process of clarification of other classic and economic crimes. This paper analyzes the steps and procedures for extracting, processing and presenting electronic evidence that represent data...
30 YEARS OF INDEPENDENT MACEDONIAN STATE
Money laundering is incriminated in the criminal legislation of the Republic of Bulgaria and the ... more Money laundering is incriminated in the criminal legislation of the Republic of Bulgaria and the Republic of North Macedonia as a separate criminal offense. The subject of this paper is the analysis of criminal acts with elements of money laundering to the two criminal legislations in order to obtain information about which criminal acts are incriminated, and the status of possible perpetrators. The evaluation of criminal acts based on the harmonization according to the Recommendations of international conventions and other legal documents will be thoroughly analyzed. Criminalistic characteristics will be analyzed from the aspect of the used techniques and money laundering schemes, which are detected in the two countries based on the analysis of the criminalistic practice. The normative method and the method of content analysis as well as case analysis of criminalistics practice will be used. Keywords: money laundering, criminal acts, criminal legal characteristics, criminalistic ch...
45 YEARS HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE AREA OF SECURITY – EDUCATIONAL CHALLENGES AND SECURITY PERSPECTIVES
Economic-financial crime is a special group of crimes for which legal measures and actions are ap... more Economic-financial crime is a special group of crimes for which legal measures and actions are applied for detection, clarification and provision of evidence, but in order to achieve appropriate results for provision of relevant evidentiary material, appropriate tactics are needed in the criminal investigation. The detection of this crime is related to obtaining information of a certain category of perpetrators who commit crimes related to their jobs, performing certain functions or duties; the crime is related to abusement in the performance of the crime, and the motives are abuse of powers and acquisition of unlawful property benefit. The process of detection is followed by tactics for obtaining operational information, a process of branching out with tactics of applying legal measures and actions. The subject of this paper is an analysis of the tactics related to the application of legal measures and actions, and the most important ones related to the insight into business docume...
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), Jun 1, 2019
Cyber-crime is distinguished from classical and economic crime as a separate group of crimes that... more Cyber-crime is distinguished from classical and economic crime as a separate group of crimes that have their own specific criminal characteristics, which are emphasized in the very definition of this crime, which is the means of committing the crime and the object of the criminal attack. It is precisely the criminal characteristics of cyber-crime that necessitate the need for appropriate criminal investigation and the provision of relevant evidence through the application of legal measures and actions and the application of appropriate techniques to provide electronic evidence which is crucial to fully illuminate a criminal forensic event, prosecution of perpetrators of specific crimes. The purpose of this paper is the theoretical study of forensic research, by analyzing a practical example following the case studies method, in order to derive indicators of the specificity of the procedure for the elucidation of computer crimes and the specific approach to securing electronic eviden...
Since its independence until today the Republic of Macedonia aims to reforms aimed at building a ... more Since its independence until today the Republic of Macedonia aims to reforms aimed at building a democratic society based on the principles of rule of law and market economy. In that plan the Republic of Macedonia has made a series of reforms in 2005 resulted in obtaining candidate status for EU membership, without setting a date for starting negotiations. Not setting a date for talks indicates that Macedonia still has not reached the level to fully meet the Copenhagen criteria. In this context speak European reports published by the European Commission which particularly highlight the problem of corruption. This paper will focus on the effectiveness of the institutions of the system in the fight against corruption with emphasis on corrupt offenses provided in chapter 30 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Macedonia
Republika Makedonija je multikulturalno, multinacionalno, multikonfesionalno i pluralisticko drus... more Republika Makedonija je multikulturalno, multinacionalno, multikonfesionalno i pluralisticko drustvo, cija europska perspektiva i ukupni razvoj izravno ovise o postojanju visokog stupnja drustvene stabilnosti, tolerancije, nediskriminacije i postivanja ljudskih sloboda i prava i njihove jednakosti. Proteklih godina pažnja je posvecena prihvacanju preporuka međunarodnih pravnih akata za inkriminiranje zlocina s elementima govora mržnje. Govor mržnje je fenomen koji je posebno zastupljen koristenjem racunalnih mreža i sustava, sto omogucuje brzo sirenje i ukljucivanje sireg kruga ljudi koji podržavaju govor mržnje, ali i organiziranje i izazivanje drugih oblika kriminalnog ponasanja s elementima nasilja. U radu se razmatraju kazneno-pravni aspekti kaznenih djela s elementima govora mržnje, osobito djela pocinjenih putem racunalnih mreža i sustava. Kazneno-pravosudni aspekti važan su preduvjet za uspjesno planiranje kaznene istrage kao proces davanja dokaza o pocinjenom kaznenom djelu ...
The International Scientific Conference Ohrid 2014 through scientific articles should contribute ... more The International Scientific Conference Ohrid 2014 through scientific articles should contribute to the 100th anniversary from the World War I, through a debate to offer answers to the questions that were current a century ago and to make the intersection of what and how changes are made in this part of Europe. Therefore the Faculty of Security-Skopje determined to organize an International Scientific Conference from the 3rd of June till 5th of June 2014 in Ohrid by the theme Macedonia and the Balkans 100 years from the World War I – Safety and Euro-Atlantic integrations. Thuscontinuing the orientation with organizing international conferences in the field of security so it can contribute to the development of scientific thought and for the decision makers of the regional, national and local level helps using the knowledge and research results for faster, simpler and timely overcome the practical problems that they are facing.This scientific meeting will be attended by over 100 scie...
The International Scientific Conference Ohrid 2014 through scientific articles should contribute ... more The International Scientific Conference Ohrid 2014 through scientific articles should contribute to the 100th anniversary from the World War I, through a debate to offer answers to the questions that were current a century ago and to make the intersection of what and how changes are made in this part of Europe. Therefore the Faculty of Security-Skopje determined to organize an International Scientific Conference from the 3rd of June till 5th of June 2014 in Ohrid by the theme Macedonia and the Balkans 100 years from the World War I – Safety and Euro-Atlantic integrations. Thuscontinuing the orientation with organizing international conferences in the field of security so it can contribute to the development of scientific thought and for the decision makers of the regional, national and local level helps using the knowledge and research results for faster, simpler and timely overcome the practical problems that they are facing.This scientific meeting will be attended by over 100 scie...
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Book Reviews by Svetlana Nikoloska
Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war." Some economic effects are already materializing. The economies of Russia and Ukraine are contracting sharply as a direct result of the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Commodity markets are in turmoil and financial markets have been highly volatile since the start of the conflict. In light of these developments, a key question is: How much will geopolitical tensions weigh on economic activity in 2022 and beyond? To answer this question, we first quantify the recent rise in geopolitical risks using two measures based on textual analysis: one focusing on newspapers articles, and another constructed from transcripts of firms' earnings calls.
Armed with these numerical measures, we use an econometric model and
recent data to provide empirical evidence on the global macroeconomic
effects of movements in geopolitical risk. Our main result suggests that the rise in geopolitical risks seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have non-negligible macroeconomic effects in 2022. Relative to a no-war counterfactual, the model sees the war as reducing the level of global GDP by about 1.5 percent and leading to a rise in global inflation of about 1.3 percentage points. The adverse effects of geopolitical risks in the model operate through lower consumer sentiment, higher commodity prices, and tighter financial conditions. Additionally, firm-level indicators suggest that a hit to the European economies will likely be greatest, especially in goodsproducing industries.
Keywords: War, Inflation, geopolitical, GDP
Papers by Svetlana Nikoloska
Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war." Some economic effects are already materializing. The economies of Russia and Ukraine are contracting sharply as a direct result of the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Commodity markets are in turmoil and financial markets have been highly volatile since the start of the conflict. In light of these developments, a key question is: How much will geopolitical tensions weigh on economic activity in 2022 and beyond? To answer this question, we first quantify the recent rise in geopolitical risks using two measures based on textual analysis: one focusing on newspapers articles, and another constructed from transcripts of firms' earnings calls.
Armed with these numerical measures, we use an econometric model and
recent data to provide empirical evidence on the global macroeconomic
effects of movements in geopolitical risk. Our main result suggests that the rise in geopolitical risks seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have non-negligible macroeconomic effects in 2022. Relative to a no-war counterfactual, the model sees the war as reducing the level of global GDP by about 1.5 percent and leading to a rise in global inflation of about 1.3 percentage points. The adverse effects of geopolitical risks in the model operate through lower consumer sentiment, higher commodity prices, and tighter financial conditions. Additionally, firm-level indicators suggest that a hit to the European economies will likely be greatest, especially in goodsproducing industries.
Keywords: War, Inflation, geopolitical, GDP