Papers by Basri Kastrati
Today's complicated security environment increasingly initiates new security risks and threats gl... more Today's complicated security environment increasingly initiates new security risks and threats globally, which on the one hand, very easily cross the national borders of states, and on the other hand, also easily overcome traditional security capacities and responses of the states aimed at achieving and strengthening their security. In this context, we are witnessing that states, including state and private entities within national frameworks, are increasingly exposed to the so-called cyber threats, which, if not effectively prevented, seriously threaten the normal functioning of the state. Moreover, we face a constantly evolving and expanding landscape of threats, and increasingly sophisticated attacks that blur the lines between cyberattacks and cyber espionage. As a result, cyber security is increasingly emerging as a new, serious issue in the contemporary security agenda as well as in security studies, which are faced with the challenge of its proper conception within national, regional and international security approaches and practices. In this context, the paper analyzes the so far attempts, as well as the opportunities and challenges in offering a clear definition and a clear conceptualization of cyber security as a significant object and matter of the contemporary security agenda.
Contemporary security risks and threats initiate a new thinking about security and a new thinking... more Contemporary security risks and threats initiate a new thinking about security and a new thinking about the content of the security agenda. The world is confronting both, by traditional (military) and contemporary (nonmilitary) threats today, which must be prevented and defeated collectively, by applying a mutual set of traditional and new approaches and methods. Such a situation directly raises the dilemma about the essential thinking of security in today's modern world. Therefore, the paper analysis about these security aspects is divided into two main directions. Regarding the first one, the focus is on the evolutionary nature of the security and its changing perceptions and theoretic understandings in different contexts, while in the second one, the focus is on the contemporary understanding of security in today's modern world, especially through the prism of increasingly promoted concepts of the environmental security, food security, and energy security.
30 YEARS OF INDEPENDENT MACEDONIAN STATE
The Euro-Atlantic perspective and regional cooperation can be listed as the key ingredients of st... more The Euro-Atlantic perspective and regional cooperation can be listed as the key ingredients of stability in the Western Balkans countries. In fact, the regional cooperation has not only tied together all Western Balkans under a shared purpose, but it has also been the most essential tool of stabilization and association - a process that is effectively paving the way of EU integration for the six Western Balkan countries. Regional cooperation covers a wide range of sectors, among which security cooperation is one of the top priorities. Manifesting many challenges, security cooperation among the Western Balkan countries is a project heavily promoted by the EU, especially some EU member states that have a strong interest in the region. The enhanced cooperation in the security sector is indeed driven by the overall EU objectives in the framework of the EU criteria on good neighborly relations, but also on the resilience and preparedness of the region to respond to security challenges wi...
45 YEARS HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE AREA OF SECURITY – EDUCATIONAL CHALLENGES AND SECURITY PERSPECTIVES
Contemporary security risks and threats initiate a new thinking about security and a new thinking... more Contemporary security risks and threats initiate a new thinking about security and a new thinking about the content of the security agenda. The world is confronting both, by traditional (military) and contemporary (nonmilitary) threats today, which must be prevented and defeated collectively, by applying a mutual set of traditional and new approaches and methods. Such a situation directly raises the dilemma about the essential thinking of security in today's modern world. Therefore, the paper analysis about these security aspects is divided into two main directions. Regarding the first one, the focus is on the evolutionary nature of the security and its changing perceptions and theoretic understandings in different contexts, while in the second one, the focus is on the contemporary understanding of security in today's modern world, especially through the prism of increasingly promoted concepts of the environmental security, food security, and energy security. Key words: risk...
Counterfeiting money is a specific form of financial and organized crime that has its own crimina... more Counterfeiting money is a specific form of financial and organized crime that has its own criminal characteristics related to the motive, the method, the means, the time, the place of execution and the organization of the perpetrators in the process of planning and realization of the criminal activity. The motives of the perpetrators, depending on the space and the method of execution, can be political, economic, but the prevailing motive is the acquisition of illegal property benefits. The knowledge and skills for recognizing criminal activities with elements of counterfeiting of money by operational officials enable operational action to obtain knowledge about this crime, and especially knowledge about criminal activities of criminal groups and organizations and taking appropriate legal measures and actions for uncovering, elucidating and providing evidence for committed crimes, crimes that are being prepared for the capture of the perpetrators and enabling quality criminal proceedings and appropriate sanctioning. The subject of study is the criminal characteristics of money counterfeiting and their recognition by the criminal police for timely response and detection of criminal cases and enabling the initiation of criminal proceedings against suspects. The normative method and the case analysis method were applied in order to obtain indicators for the significant criminal characteristics of this crime.
Conference Presentations by Basri Kastrati
Third International Scientific Conference on Social and Legal Sciences (ISCSLS '22):, 2022
RULE OF LAW, GOVERNANCE AND SOCIETY IN THE WESTERN BALKANS
-CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE FUTURE OF EUROP... more RULE OF LAW, GOVERNANCE AND SOCIETY IN THE WESTERN BALKANS
-CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE FUTURE OF EUROPE
Human rights and the role of the ombudsman in Kosovo
Ph.D. candidate: Basri Kastrati
Southeast European University - Administrative-constitutional direction
[email protected]
The field of human rights is an interest even in countries with highly developed democracies, let alone in emerging countries such as Kosovo. Therefore, human rights in Kosovo can not only be a problem of the domestic legal system for a while, but with Kosovo's membership in international and European mechanisms, the implementation of international and European instruments on human rights will be a problem for a long time. I consider that the Ombudsman in Kosovo will be in the spotlight for a while due to human rights violations and as a kind of balanced mechanism between the judicial system and other constitutional institutions such as the Assembly and the Government.
The establishment of the Ombudsman as an institution is a choice that reflects the degree of knowledge between the relationship: protection of human rights and extrajudicial means of control. In the absence of a developed political and administrative culture, especially from the post-war period onwards, the protection of fundamental human rights encounters difficulties, therefore the existence of the Ombudsman designed to cover legal and practical gaps and insufficient functioning of this justice system. Moreover, the constitutional provision of this institution as independent, is decisive on the process of consolidation of the fragile new democracy, especially in the Republic of Kosovo, and the substantial realization of the rule of law. Due to the undeniable role that is recognized worldwide in the field of protection of fundamental rights and freedoms, this institution today can be found in the vast majority of constitutional legal systems compared to the rest of the world.
For the development of a democratic society, the basic principles are respect for fundamental rights and freedoms and strengthening the rule of law. Therefore, the ombudsman institution directly helps to strengthen the country's democracy as a mechanism of parliamentary control of nature constitutional and administrative.
Keywords: Human rights, rule of law and ombudsman.
The Second Online International Scientific Conference on Social and Legal Sciences (OISCSLS '20): RULE OF LAW, GOVERNANCE AND SOCIETY IN THE TIME OF PANDEMIC, 2021
Title of the Paper
Domestic Violence in Pandemonium and the positive obligations of the State reg... more Title of the Paper
Domestic Violence in Pandemonium and the positive obligations of the State regarding the protection from domestic violence for the right to life!
Author Basri Kastrati -phd-candidat
University of South East Europe , Law Faculty-Administrative –Constitutional , North Macedonia
[email protected]
Domestic violence has been considered an old scourge of society, often still unresolved, which has resisted the development that society has made around the world, not leaving behind the democratic development of society in general.
Domestic violence is not specific to just one ethnicity or community, it is pervasive and only causes make it different. Aggression in a society is always directed towards the weakest. The burden of problems outside the family affects the atmosphere within families. Poverty is the umbrella of many other problems. Domestic violence is a sharp social problem, because it undermines the foundations of society at its deepest foundation such as the family. It does not always have causes in internal family, moral or psychological factors, but also in other social causes.
The study of this violence is quite complicated because it is a phenomenon that occurs behind the doors of houses and the authorities find it difficult to take preventive measures, collect data or act with the classical methods and tools of preventing and combating violence.
Studies on domestic violence are few in Kosovo, the biggest problem for the study of this phenomenon lies, because Kosovar society is still acting somewhere based on moral norms, and most of the cases that occur in our society, ( which are not few) remain closed within the family.
Therefore, given these facts which were mentioned above, we can say that this problem is quite present in our society, and has not been well studied by the relevant institutions.
But in the wake of the global-19-global pandemic, domestic violence has plummeted across the globe, and the pandemic is growing, and the pandemic suggests that it is still assumed to be a safe haven for all. However, for people who experience domestic violence, including domestic violence, distancing them may mean being trapped within with an abuse. Domestic violence is already a deadly epidemic;
In China, more than a million cases of domestic violence have been isolated and quarantined. Police dispatch received three times as many reports of domestic violence cases in February, compared to a year earlier. Similar trends have also appeared in the US. Cases in several countries have doubled since isolation measures were taken.
These tendencies are also expected in Kosovo. While social distance and isolation use strategies to prevent the spread of the virus, these strategies can be manipulated by abusers to isolate victims from their families and social networks. These strategies may result in an increase in domestic violence, which predominantly affects women.
In all courts of Kosovo, domestic violence cases were treated with priority compared to other cases as a result of this office that I lead at the national level had handled a total of 527 cases of domestic violence, but there were fatal consequences during this time.
Therefore, the treatment of this topic will be at the level of human rights and the role of the ombudsperson in the protection of human rights and freedoms in cases of domestic violence and end in fatality.
Keywords: Domestic violence, ombudsman pandemic.
Book Reviews by Basri Kastrati
CYBER-SECURITY AS AN ISSUE OF THE CONTEMPORARY SECURITY AGENDA, 2023
Abstract
Today's complicated security environment increasingly initiates new security risks
and ... more Abstract
Today's complicated security environment increasingly initiates new security risks
and threats globally, which on the one hand, very easily cross the national borders of
states, and on the other hand, also easily overcome traditional security capacities and
responses of the states aimed at achieving and strengthening their security. In this context,
we are witnessing that states, including state and private entities within national
frameworks, are increasingly exposed to the so-called cyber threats, which, if not
effectively prevented, seriously threaten the normal functioning of the state. Moreover, we
face a constantly evolving and expanding landscape of threats, and increasingly
sophisticated attacks that blur the lines between cyberattacks and cyber espionage. As a
result, cyber security is increasingly emerging as a new, serious issue in the contemporary
security agenda as well as in security studies, which are faced with the challenge of its
proper conception within national, regional and international security approaches and
practices. In this context, the paper analyzes the so far attempts, as well as the
opportunities and challenges in offering a clear definition and a clear conceptualization of
cyber security as a significant object and matter of the contemporary security agenda.
Keywords: security agenda, cyber-security, cyber-threats, critical infrastructure
THE EFFECT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE ON GLOBAL ACTIVITY AND INFLATION, 2022
Abstract
Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. Investors, ma... more Abstract
Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war." Some economic effects are already materializing. The economies of Russia and Ukraine are contracting sharply as a direct result of the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Commodity markets are in turmoil and financial markets have been highly volatile since the start of the conflict. In light of these developments, a key question is: How much will geopolitical tensions weigh on economic activity in 2022 and beyond? To answer this question, we first quantify the recent rise in geopolitical risks using two measures based on textual analysis: one focusing on newspapers articles, and another constructed from transcripts of firms' earnings calls.
Armed with these numerical measures, we use an econometric model and
recent data to provide empirical evidence on the global macroeconomic
effects of movements in geopolitical risk. Our main result suggests that the rise in geopolitical risks seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have non-negligible macroeconomic effects in 2022. Relative to a no-war counterfactual, the model sees the war as reducing the level of global GDP by about 1.5 percent and leading to a rise in global inflation of about 1.3 percentage points. The adverse effects of geopolitical risks in the model operate through lower consumer sentiment, higher commodity prices, and tighter financial conditions. Additionally, firm-level indicators suggest that a hit to the European economies will likely be greatest, especially in goodsproducing industries.
Keywords: War, Inflation, geopolitical, GDP
Uploads
Papers by Basri Kastrati
Conference Presentations by Basri Kastrati
-CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE FUTURE OF EUROPE
Human rights and the role of the ombudsman in Kosovo
Ph.D. candidate: Basri Kastrati
Southeast European University - Administrative-constitutional direction
[email protected]
The field of human rights is an interest even in countries with highly developed democracies, let alone in emerging countries such as Kosovo. Therefore, human rights in Kosovo can not only be a problem of the domestic legal system for a while, but with Kosovo's membership in international and European mechanisms, the implementation of international and European instruments on human rights will be a problem for a long time. I consider that the Ombudsman in Kosovo will be in the spotlight for a while due to human rights violations and as a kind of balanced mechanism between the judicial system and other constitutional institutions such as the Assembly and the Government.
The establishment of the Ombudsman as an institution is a choice that reflects the degree of knowledge between the relationship: protection of human rights and extrajudicial means of control. In the absence of a developed political and administrative culture, especially from the post-war period onwards, the protection of fundamental human rights encounters difficulties, therefore the existence of the Ombudsman designed to cover legal and practical gaps and insufficient functioning of this justice system. Moreover, the constitutional provision of this institution as independent, is decisive on the process of consolidation of the fragile new democracy, especially in the Republic of Kosovo, and the substantial realization of the rule of law. Due to the undeniable role that is recognized worldwide in the field of protection of fundamental rights and freedoms, this institution today can be found in the vast majority of constitutional legal systems compared to the rest of the world.
For the development of a democratic society, the basic principles are respect for fundamental rights and freedoms and strengthening the rule of law. Therefore, the ombudsman institution directly helps to strengthen the country's democracy as a mechanism of parliamentary control of nature constitutional and administrative.
Keywords: Human rights, rule of law and ombudsman.
Domestic Violence in Pandemonium and the positive obligations of the State regarding the protection from domestic violence for the right to life!
Author Basri Kastrati -phd-candidat
University of South East Europe , Law Faculty-Administrative –Constitutional , North Macedonia
[email protected]
Domestic violence has been considered an old scourge of society, often still unresolved, which has resisted the development that society has made around the world, not leaving behind the democratic development of society in general.
Domestic violence is not specific to just one ethnicity or community, it is pervasive and only causes make it different. Aggression in a society is always directed towards the weakest. The burden of problems outside the family affects the atmosphere within families. Poverty is the umbrella of many other problems. Domestic violence is a sharp social problem, because it undermines the foundations of society at its deepest foundation such as the family. It does not always have causes in internal family, moral or psychological factors, but also in other social causes.
The study of this violence is quite complicated because it is a phenomenon that occurs behind the doors of houses and the authorities find it difficult to take preventive measures, collect data or act with the classical methods and tools of preventing and combating violence.
Studies on domestic violence are few in Kosovo, the biggest problem for the study of this phenomenon lies, because Kosovar society is still acting somewhere based on moral norms, and most of the cases that occur in our society, ( which are not few) remain closed within the family.
Therefore, given these facts which were mentioned above, we can say that this problem is quite present in our society, and has not been well studied by the relevant institutions.
But in the wake of the global-19-global pandemic, domestic violence has plummeted across the globe, and the pandemic is growing, and the pandemic suggests that it is still assumed to be a safe haven for all. However, for people who experience domestic violence, including domestic violence, distancing them may mean being trapped within with an abuse. Domestic violence is already a deadly epidemic;
In China, more than a million cases of domestic violence have been isolated and quarantined. Police dispatch received three times as many reports of domestic violence cases in February, compared to a year earlier. Similar trends have also appeared in the US. Cases in several countries have doubled since isolation measures were taken.
These tendencies are also expected in Kosovo. While social distance and isolation use strategies to prevent the spread of the virus, these strategies can be manipulated by abusers to isolate victims from their families and social networks. These strategies may result in an increase in domestic violence, which predominantly affects women.
In all courts of Kosovo, domestic violence cases were treated with priority compared to other cases as a result of this office that I lead at the national level had handled a total of 527 cases of domestic violence, but there were fatal consequences during this time.
Therefore, the treatment of this topic will be at the level of human rights and the role of the ombudsperson in the protection of human rights and freedoms in cases of domestic violence and end in fatality.
Keywords: Domestic violence, ombudsman pandemic.
Book Reviews by Basri Kastrati
Today's complicated security environment increasingly initiates new security risks
and threats globally, which on the one hand, very easily cross the national borders of
states, and on the other hand, also easily overcome traditional security capacities and
responses of the states aimed at achieving and strengthening their security. In this context,
we are witnessing that states, including state and private entities within national
frameworks, are increasingly exposed to the so-called cyber threats, which, if not
effectively prevented, seriously threaten the normal functioning of the state. Moreover, we
face a constantly evolving and expanding landscape of threats, and increasingly
sophisticated attacks that blur the lines between cyberattacks and cyber espionage. As a
result, cyber security is increasingly emerging as a new, serious issue in the contemporary
security agenda as well as in security studies, which are faced with the challenge of its
proper conception within national, regional and international security approaches and
practices. In this context, the paper analyzes the so far attempts, as well as the
opportunities and challenges in offering a clear definition and a clear conceptualization of
cyber security as a significant object and matter of the contemporary security agenda.
Keywords: security agenda, cyber-security, cyber-threats, critical infrastructure
Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war." Some economic effects are already materializing. The economies of Russia and Ukraine are contracting sharply as a direct result of the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Commodity markets are in turmoil and financial markets have been highly volatile since the start of the conflict. In light of these developments, a key question is: How much will geopolitical tensions weigh on economic activity in 2022 and beyond? To answer this question, we first quantify the recent rise in geopolitical risks using two measures based on textual analysis: one focusing on newspapers articles, and another constructed from transcripts of firms' earnings calls.
Armed with these numerical measures, we use an econometric model and
recent data to provide empirical evidence on the global macroeconomic
effects of movements in geopolitical risk. Our main result suggests that the rise in geopolitical risks seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have non-negligible macroeconomic effects in 2022. Relative to a no-war counterfactual, the model sees the war as reducing the level of global GDP by about 1.5 percent and leading to a rise in global inflation of about 1.3 percentage points. The adverse effects of geopolitical risks in the model operate through lower consumer sentiment, higher commodity prices, and tighter financial conditions. Additionally, firm-level indicators suggest that a hit to the European economies will likely be greatest, especially in goodsproducing industries.
Keywords: War, Inflation, geopolitical, GDP
-CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE FUTURE OF EUROPE
Human rights and the role of the ombudsman in Kosovo
Ph.D. candidate: Basri Kastrati
Southeast European University - Administrative-constitutional direction
[email protected]
The field of human rights is an interest even in countries with highly developed democracies, let alone in emerging countries such as Kosovo. Therefore, human rights in Kosovo can not only be a problem of the domestic legal system for a while, but with Kosovo's membership in international and European mechanisms, the implementation of international and European instruments on human rights will be a problem for a long time. I consider that the Ombudsman in Kosovo will be in the spotlight for a while due to human rights violations and as a kind of balanced mechanism between the judicial system and other constitutional institutions such as the Assembly and the Government.
The establishment of the Ombudsman as an institution is a choice that reflects the degree of knowledge between the relationship: protection of human rights and extrajudicial means of control. In the absence of a developed political and administrative culture, especially from the post-war period onwards, the protection of fundamental human rights encounters difficulties, therefore the existence of the Ombudsman designed to cover legal and practical gaps and insufficient functioning of this justice system. Moreover, the constitutional provision of this institution as independent, is decisive on the process of consolidation of the fragile new democracy, especially in the Republic of Kosovo, and the substantial realization of the rule of law. Due to the undeniable role that is recognized worldwide in the field of protection of fundamental rights and freedoms, this institution today can be found in the vast majority of constitutional legal systems compared to the rest of the world.
For the development of a democratic society, the basic principles are respect for fundamental rights and freedoms and strengthening the rule of law. Therefore, the ombudsman institution directly helps to strengthen the country's democracy as a mechanism of parliamentary control of nature constitutional and administrative.
Keywords: Human rights, rule of law and ombudsman.
Domestic Violence in Pandemonium and the positive obligations of the State regarding the protection from domestic violence for the right to life!
Author Basri Kastrati -phd-candidat
University of South East Europe , Law Faculty-Administrative –Constitutional , North Macedonia
[email protected]
Domestic violence has been considered an old scourge of society, often still unresolved, which has resisted the development that society has made around the world, not leaving behind the democratic development of society in general.
Domestic violence is not specific to just one ethnicity or community, it is pervasive and only causes make it different. Aggression in a society is always directed towards the weakest. The burden of problems outside the family affects the atmosphere within families. Poverty is the umbrella of many other problems. Domestic violence is a sharp social problem, because it undermines the foundations of society at its deepest foundation such as the family. It does not always have causes in internal family, moral or psychological factors, but also in other social causes.
The study of this violence is quite complicated because it is a phenomenon that occurs behind the doors of houses and the authorities find it difficult to take preventive measures, collect data or act with the classical methods and tools of preventing and combating violence.
Studies on domestic violence are few in Kosovo, the biggest problem for the study of this phenomenon lies, because Kosovar society is still acting somewhere based on moral norms, and most of the cases that occur in our society, ( which are not few) remain closed within the family.
Therefore, given these facts which were mentioned above, we can say that this problem is quite present in our society, and has not been well studied by the relevant institutions.
But in the wake of the global-19-global pandemic, domestic violence has plummeted across the globe, and the pandemic is growing, and the pandemic suggests that it is still assumed to be a safe haven for all. However, for people who experience domestic violence, including domestic violence, distancing them may mean being trapped within with an abuse. Domestic violence is already a deadly epidemic;
In China, more than a million cases of domestic violence have been isolated and quarantined. Police dispatch received three times as many reports of domestic violence cases in February, compared to a year earlier. Similar trends have also appeared in the US. Cases in several countries have doubled since isolation measures were taken.
These tendencies are also expected in Kosovo. While social distance and isolation use strategies to prevent the spread of the virus, these strategies can be manipulated by abusers to isolate victims from their families and social networks. These strategies may result in an increase in domestic violence, which predominantly affects women.
In all courts of Kosovo, domestic violence cases were treated with priority compared to other cases as a result of this office that I lead at the national level had handled a total of 527 cases of domestic violence, but there were fatal consequences during this time.
Therefore, the treatment of this topic will be at the level of human rights and the role of the ombudsperson in the protection of human rights and freedoms in cases of domestic violence and end in fatality.
Keywords: Domestic violence, ombudsman pandemic.
Today's complicated security environment increasingly initiates new security risks
and threats globally, which on the one hand, very easily cross the national borders of
states, and on the other hand, also easily overcome traditional security capacities and
responses of the states aimed at achieving and strengthening their security. In this context,
we are witnessing that states, including state and private entities within national
frameworks, are increasingly exposed to the so-called cyber threats, which, if not
effectively prevented, seriously threaten the normal functioning of the state. Moreover, we
face a constantly evolving and expanding landscape of threats, and increasingly
sophisticated attacks that blur the lines between cyberattacks and cyber espionage. As a
result, cyber security is increasingly emerging as a new, serious issue in the contemporary
security agenda as well as in security studies, which are faced with the challenge of its
proper conception within national, regional and international security approaches and
practices. In this context, the paper analyzes the so far attempts, as well as the
opportunities and challenges in offering a clear definition and a clear conceptualization of
cyber security as a significant object and matter of the contemporary security agenda.
Keywords: security agenda, cyber-security, cyber-threats, critical infrastructure
Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war." Some economic effects are already materializing. The economies of Russia and Ukraine are contracting sharply as a direct result of the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Commodity markets are in turmoil and financial markets have been highly volatile since the start of the conflict. In light of these developments, a key question is: How much will geopolitical tensions weigh on economic activity in 2022 and beyond? To answer this question, we first quantify the recent rise in geopolitical risks using two measures based on textual analysis: one focusing on newspapers articles, and another constructed from transcripts of firms' earnings calls.
Armed with these numerical measures, we use an econometric model and
recent data to provide empirical evidence on the global macroeconomic
effects of movements in geopolitical risk. Our main result suggests that the rise in geopolitical risks seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have non-negligible macroeconomic effects in 2022. Relative to a no-war counterfactual, the model sees the war as reducing the level of global GDP by about 1.5 percent and leading to a rise in global inflation of about 1.3 percentage points. The adverse effects of geopolitical risks in the model operate through lower consumer sentiment, higher commodity prices, and tighter financial conditions. Additionally, firm-level indicators suggest that a hit to the European economies will likely be greatest, especially in goodsproducing industries.
Keywords: War, Inflation, geopolitical, GDP