Devedesete godine svakako predstavljaju najburniji period u istoriji Evrope druge polovine dvades... more Devedesete godine svakako predstavljaju najburniji period u istoriji Evrope druge polovine dvadesetog veka. To je vreme propasti tzv. komunističkih režima i raspada nekoliko federalnih država (Sovjetskog saveza, Čehoslovačke, SFR Jugoslavije), što je u slučaju Jugoslavije i delimično SSSR-a bilo praćeno dugogodišnjim lokalnim ratovima. Devedesete su posebno značajne za SR Jugoslaviju, pre svega kao godine u kojima je ona konstituisana kao federalna državna zajednica Srbije i Crne Gore. Za novoformiranu SR Jugoslaviju to su i godine pod teškim ekonomskim i političkim sankcijama medjunarodne zajednice koje su bile praćene stalnim, više ili manje, otvorenim pretnjama vojnom intervencijom, koje su 1999. prerasle u otvorenu agresiju. Pored gubitka suveriniteta nad delom državne teritorije, kao jedna od glavnih posledica takvih unutrašnjih i spoljnih prilika je i duboka ekonomska kriza koja se u posmatranom periodu manifestovala enormnim padom proizvodnje, visokim rastom cena, ogromnom otvorenom i još izrazitijom prikrivenom nezaposlenošću, i naglim osiromašenjem najširih slojeva stanovništva. Specifični uslovi tokom 1990-ih godina u kojima se nalazila Evropa, pre svega bivše socijalističke zemlje i naročito prostor bivše SFR Jugoslavije, značajno su uticali na njihov najnoviji demografski razvitak. Brojni nepovoljni demografski trendovi su nastavljeni i još više zaoštreni, neke demografske pojave su ponovo postale aktuelne, ali su istovremeno mnoge ranije prisutne tendencije usporene, a njihovo snažnije manifestovanje verovatno odloženo za 21. vek. U ovom statističkom prilogu Goran Penev je prikupio podatke o osnovnim demografskim pokazateljima za sve zemlje Evrope. Autor je zemlje svrstao u četiri velika regiona-severnu, zapadnu i južnu Evropu i grupu bivših socijalističkih država. Radi lakšeg i potpunijeg medjunarodnog poredjenja Napomena 1: Razliku do ukupno predstavlja stanovništvo Andore, Lihtenštajna i San Marina. Napomena 2: Primenjen je pravni koncept (stanovništvo de jure) osim kod zemalja označenih zvezdicom (stanovništvo de facto).
Les Balkans sont une région hétérogène, typique au sens ethnique, confessionnel, linguistique et ... more Les Balkans sont une région hétérogène, typique au sens ethnique, confessionnel, linguistique et culturel. Cette diversité est sans doute une source de richesse, mais elle constitue souvent aussi une pierre d'achoppement, une des principales causes directes de conflits quand le processus de formation de la nation n'est pas complètement abouti. L'hétérogénéité ethnique de l'espace balkanique est manifeste ; il n'en est pas moins très difficile d'en préciser les contours réels, pour les périodes passées comme pour la période actuelle. En attestent, par exemple, pour le passé, les estimations fort divergentes selon la source, de la structure ethnique de la Macédoine figurant dans le rapport sur les causes des guerres balkaniques (1912-1913) du Comité de la Fondation Carnegie pour la paix dans le monde (1) , les dates d'observation différentes et les délimitations variables du territoire considéré n'expliquant qu'une partie des écarts (tableau 1). Une centaine d'années plus tard, la situation est souvent très similaire et, en ce début de xxi e siècle, il est toujours très délicat d'analyser les derniers changements et de se prononcer sur la structure ethnique de la population des Balkans, les nombreux * Institut des sciences sociales, Centre de recherches démographiques, Belgrade, Serbie. Au strict plan formel, ce texte a été révisé par Alain Parant, seul responsable des offenses résiduelles à la langue française. (1) Carnegie Endowment for International peace, Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars, Published by the Endowment Washington, D.C. 1914 Tableau 1. Structure ethnique de la population de la Macédoine vers 1900, selon trois sources statistiques Groupe ethnique Source bulgare (1900) Source serbe (1889) Source grecque* (1904) Population totale
Population trends in the Yugoslav republic of Serbia are analyzed for the period 1948-1991 using ... more Population trends in the Yugoslav republic of Serbia are analyzed for the period 1948-1991 using census data. The author notes that the population continued to grow over this period, primarily through natural increase rather than migration. The rate of growth, however, has declined over time. There are also significant differences among Serbia's three main regions: although the population of Vojvodina and central Serbia has begun to decline, the populations of Kosovo and Metohija have grown faster over time. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Changes in the age and sex distribution of what is now Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) are ana... more Changes in the age and sex distribution of what is now Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) are analyzed over the period from 1921 to 1991 using census data.
Ciklične varijacije suicida, a naročito njihova sezonalnost davno je utvrđena, i to u svim delovi... more Ciklične varijacije suicida, a naročito njihova sezonalnost davno je utvrđena, i to u svim delovima sveta. Može se reći da se Srbija u tom pogledu ne izdvaja, mada je u dosadašnjim istraživanjima samoubistva, posebno onim demografskim, temporalnim karakteristikama posvećena mala pažnja. Cilj rada je da se za Srbiju ocene sezonske varijacije u periodu 1990-2012 (evidentirano je ukupno 32.855 suicida), kakvi su trendovi prisutni i sagleda koliko je ta pojava u skladu sa ustanovljenim obrascima u drugim zemljama. U radu su primenjeni "klasični" statistički metodi ocene cikličnih varijacija (2-test, Edwardsova procedura), zatim neki skorašnji metodi (peak-low ratio), a uveden je i jedan novi pokazatelj intenziteta mesečnih varijacija suicida (indeks MtMV). Istraživanjem je utvrđena unimodalna distribucija suicida, s maksimumom u proleće i leto i minimumom u zimu. Po mesecima, najviše samoubistava je u maju, dok je maksimalan prosečan broj samoubistava po danu izračunat za jun (21 % veći od proseka za 1990-2012). Decembar se izdvaja kao mesec s najmanjim brojem i najmanjim dnevnim prosekom samoubistava (25 % manje od proseka). Sezonalnost suicida je jasno izražena tokom čitavog posmatranog perioda, i nisu primećena bitnija kolebanja odnosno smanjenje intenziteta varijacije. Temporalne karakteristike su razmatrane i po polu, i nisu utvrđene bitnije razlike u cikličnosti suicida kod muškaraca i žena.
U Srbiji se 2020. godina, s demografske tačke gledišta, svakako izdvaja kao jedna od najmarkantni... more U Srbiji se 2020. godina, s demografske tačke gledišta, svakako izdvaja kao jedna od najmarkantnijih u 21. veku, a s aspekta smrtnosti stanovništva i u čitavom periodu nakon završetka Drugog svetskog rata. To je prvenstveno povezano s pojavom pandemije COVID-19 koja se do sada nezabeleženom brzinom proširila planetom. Cilj rada je da se da analiza osnovnih demografskih karakteristika Srbije prve godine pandemije i da se ukaže na najvažnije demografske posledice epidemije tog koronavirusnog oboljenja.
In Serbia, from a demographic point of view, 2020 certainly stands out as one of the most signifi... more In Serbia, from a demographic point of view, 2020 certainly stands out as one of the most significant years of the twenty-first century and, with respect to mortality, of the period after the end of the Second World War. This is mainly linked to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has spread across the planet at an unprecedented rate. The aim of this paper is to present the analysis of Serbia's basic demographic data during the first year of the pandemic and to highlight the most important demographic consequences of the epidemic of the current coronavirus disease. As of 31 December 2020, according to the official SORS estimates, Serbia had 6,871,500 inhabitants, 55,000 fewer than in 2019. The decline is 74% higher than the 20-year average. As the estimates do not include net migration, the real population size is significantly smaller and, according to the author's opinion, it reaches a maximum of 6.7 million (as in 1961). The death toll was 116,850 and it is 15.2%...
The social, economic, and cultural changes that have taken place in Europe in the past few decade... more The social, economic, and cultural changes that have taken place in Europe in the past few decades in the field of fertility have been accompanied by an increase in permanent childlessness. The childlessness level among women born in 1968 is 12% in Serbia, slightly below the European average (14%). The aim of this paper is to explore in more detail the level of childlessness in Serbia and the characteristics of women aged 15-49 without live births. Changes in childlessness over a 60-year period (1961-2020) by five-year age groups were analysed. The basic characteristics of childless women of reproductive age by education, marital status, and age were observed from 1991 to 2011. The paper is based on census and vital statistics data. The authors introduce two new indicators of childlessness: the general childlessness rate (GChR) as the share of women without live births in the total female population aged 15-49, and the age-specific childlessness rate (ASChR) as the percentage of chi...
Povećanje udela obudovelih uobičajeni je pratilac odmaklog starenja stanovništva. Srbija se sa st... more Povećanje udela obudovelih uobičajeni je pratilac odmaklog starenja stanovništva. Srbija se sa stopom obudovelosti od 11,7% 2011. godine nalazi pri samom evropskom vrhu, a stopa obudovelosti muškaraca (5,2%) najveća je u Evropi. U radu se istražuje obudovelost u Srbiji u periodu 1980-2016. Osnovni cilj rada je deskripcija trendova i karakteristika udovištva u posmatranom razdoblju. Rad je prvenstveno zasnovan na analizi do sada neobjavljenih podataka popisa stanovništva (između 1981. i 2011) i vitalne statistike (1980-2016). U posmatranom periodu je utvrđeno kontinuirano povećanje broja udovaca i udovica i njihovog udela u ukupnom stanovništvu. Uočene su specifičnosti u starosnoj i polnoj strukturi obudovelih. Više od 4/5 obudovelih je starije od 60 godina, a vrednosti svih pokazatelja obudovelosti su tri ili četiri puta veće kod žena. Sagledan je i nupcijalitet obudovelih u smislu sve ređeg sklapanja ponovnog braka i smanjenja rodnih razlika. Analizirana je obrazovna struktura obud...
Način izvršenja samoubistva je važna determinanta ishoda suicidnog ponašanja, a smanjenje dostupn... more Način izvršenja samoubistva je važna determinanta ishoda suicidnog ponašanja, a smanjenje dostupnosti najčešće korišćenih metoda ima značajan preventivni potencijal. U radu je analizirano kretanje ukupnog broja samoubistava u Srbiji prema načinu izvršenja u periodu 1990-2014, s naglaskom na strukturne razlike po polu i starosti. Relativna zastupljenost pojedinih starosnih grupa kod najčešće primenjivanih metoda suicida utvrđena je na osnovu dobijenih vrednosti pokazatelja relativnog rizika nazvanog starosni indeksi metoda suicida (SIMS). Korišćeni su podaci Republičkog zavoda za statistiku, i to uglavnom neobjavljeni. Rezultati analize pokazuju da je u Srbiji u periodu 1990-2014. vešanje izrazito najzastupljeniji metod samoubistva (61%). Sledeća po brojnosti, ali sa značajno manjim udelom, su samoubistva vatrenim oružjem (13%) i trovanjem (8%). Najveće promene su registrovane u pogledu povećanja samoubistava vatrenim oružjem, vremenski jasno povezane s početkom ratova na prostoru bi...
Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour La Documentation française. Distribution électronique C... more Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour La Documentation française. Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour La Documentation française. La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit. Article disponible en ligne à l'adresse Article disponible en ligne à l'adresse https://www.cairn.info/revue-le-courrier-des-pays-de-lest -2003-5-page-43.htm Découvrir le sommaire de ce numéro, suivre la revue par email, s'abonner... Flashez ce QR Code pour accéder à la page de ce numéro sur Cairn.info.
By the first preliminary results, Serbia had a population of 7.1 million, which, according to the... more By the first preliminary results, Serbia had a population of 7.1 million, which, according to the Serbian Statistical Office, constitutes a decrease of 377 thousand persons compared to the size of the population at the time of 2002 Census. However, given the different definitions of total population (with or without persons abroad who have been outside of the country for less than a year, and further, with or without the internally displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija), this comparison of the initial results of 2011 Census and the final results of 2002 Census is methodologically unsound, leading to incorrect conclusions about the change of the population size between the two censuses. In this paper, we analyze the changes in population size for the intercensal period 2002-2011 based on comparable data from the 2002 and 2011 Censuses, which allows for more accurate understanding of depopulation of Serbia and the immediate demographic causes of this depopulation. According to th...
The method of suicide is an important determinant of the outcome of suicidal behavior, and the re... more The method of suicide is an important determinant of the outcome of suicidal behavior, and the reduction of the availability of the most frequently used methods has significant preventive potential. This paper analyzes the dynamics of the total number of suicides in Serbia according to method used in the period of 1990-2014, with an emphasis on structural differences by sex and age. The relative participation of certain age groups in the most commonly used suicide methods is indicated based on the calculated values of the relative risk referred to as the age ratio of method of suicide (ARMS). The analysis is based on the data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, mostly unpublished. The results of the analysis show that in Serbia, in the period of 1990-2014, hanging was the most commonly used suicide method (61%). The next in number, but with a significantly smaller share, were suicides by a firearm (13%) and poisoning (8%).The biggest changes were registered with reg...
Devedesete godine svakako predstavljaju najburniji period u istoriji Evrope druge polovine dvades... more Devedesete godine svakako predstavljaju najburniji period u istoriji Evrope druge polovine dvadesetog veka. To je vreme propasti tzv. komunističkih režima i raspada nekoliko federalnih država (Sovjetskog saveza, Čehoslovačke, SFR Jugoslavije), što je u slučaju Jugoslavije i delimično SSSR-a bilo praćeno dugogodišnjim lokalnim ratovima. Devedesete su posebno značajne za SR Jugoslaviju, pre svega kao godine u kojima je ona konstituisana kao federalna državna zajednica Srbije i Crne Gore. Za novoformiranu SR Jugoslaviju to su i godine pod teškim ekonomskim i političkim sankcijama medjunarodne zajednice koje su bile praćene stalnim, više ili manje, otvorenim pretnjama vojnom intervencijom, koje su 1999. prerasle u otvorenu agresiju. Pored gubitka suveriniteta nad delom državne teritorije, kao jedna od glavnih posledica takvih unutrašnjih i spoljnih prilika je i duboka ekonomska kriza koja se u posmatranom periodu manifestovala enormnim padom proizvodnje, visokim rastom cena, ogromnom otvorenom i još izrazitijom prikrivenom nezaposlenošću, i naglim osiromašenjem najširih slojeva stanovništva. Specifični uslovi tokom 1990-ih godina u kojima se nalazila Evropa, pre svega bivše socijalističke zemlje i naročito prostor bivše SFR Jugoslavije, značajno su uticali na njihov najnoviji demografski razvitak. Brojni nepovoljni demografski trendovi su nastavljeni i još više zaoštreni, neke demografske pojave su ponovo postale aktuelne, ali su istovremeno mnoge ranije prisutne tendencije usporene, a njihovo snažnije manifestovanje verovatno odloženo za 21. vek. U ovom statističkom prilogu Goran Penev je prikupio podatke o osnovnim demografskim pokazateljima za sve zemlje Evrope. Autor je zemlje svrstao u četiri velika regiona-severnu, zapadnu i južnu Evropu i grupu bivših socijalističkih država. Radi lakšeg i potpunijeg medjunarodnog poredjenja Napomena 1: Razliku do ukupno predstavlja stanovništvo Andore, Lihtenštajna i San Marina. Napomena 2: Primenjen je pravni koncept (stanovništvo de jure) osim kod zemalja označenih zvezdicom (stanovništvo de facto).
Les Balkans sont une région hétérogène, typique au sens ethnique, confessionnel, linguistique et ... more Les Balkans sont une région hétérogène, typique au sens ethnique, confessionnel, linguistique et culturel. Cette diversité est sans doute une source de richesse, mais elle constitue souvent aussi une pierre d'achoppement, une des principales causes directes de conflits quand le processus de formation de la nation n'est pas complètement abouti. L'hétérogénéité ethnique de l'espace balkanique est manifeste ; il n'en est pas moins très difficile d'en préciser les contours réels, pour les périodes passées comme pour la période actuelle. En attestent, par exemple, pour le passé, les estimations fort divergentes selon la source, de la structure ethnique de la Macédoine figurant dans le rapport sur les causes des guerres balkaniques (1912-1913) du Comité de la Fondation Carnegie pour la paix dans le monde (1) , les dates d'observation différentes et les délimitations variables du territoire considéré n'expliquant qu'une partie des écarts (tableau 1). Une centaine d'années plus tard, la situation est souvent très similaire et, en ce début de xxi e siècle, il est toujours très délicat d'analyser les derniers changements et de se prononcer sur la structure ethnique de la population des Balkans, les nombreux * Institut des sciences sociales, Centre de recherches démographiques, Belgrade, Serbie. Au strict plan formel, ce texte a été révisé par Alain Parant, seul responsable des offenses résiduelles à la langue française. (1) Carnegie Endowment for International peace, Report of the International Commission to Inquire into the Causes and Conduct of the Balkan Wars, Published by the Endowment Washington, D.C. 1914 Tableau 1. Structure ethnique de la population de la Macédoine vers 1900, selon trois sources statistiques Groupe ethnique Source bulgare (1900) Source serbe (1889) Source grecque* (1904) Population totale
Population trends in the Yugoslav republic of Serbia are analyzed for the period 1948-1991 using ... more Population trends in the Yugoslav republic of Serbia are analyzed for the period 1948-1991 using census data. The author notes that the population continued to grow over this period, primarily through natural increase rather than migration. The rate of growth, however, has declined over time. There are also significant differences among Serbia's three main regions: although the population of Vojvodina and central Serbia has begun to decline, the populations of Kosovo and Metohija have grown faster over time. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Changes in the age and sex distribution of what is now Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) are ana... more Changes in the age and sex distribution of what is now Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) are analyzed over the period from 1921 to 1991 using census data.
Ciklične varijacije suicida, a naročito njihova sezonalnost davno je utvrđena, i to u svim delovi... more Ciklične varijacije suicida, a naročito njihova sezonalnost davno je utvrđena, i to u svim delovima sveta. Može se reći da se Srbija u tom pogledu ne izdvaja, mada je u dosadašnjim istraživanjima samoubistva, posebno onim demografskim, temporalnim karakteristikama posvećena mala pažnja. Cilj rada je da se za Srbiju ocene sezonske varijacije u periodu 1990-2012 (evidentirano je ukupno 32.855 suicida), kakvi su trendovi prisutni i sagleda koliko je ta pojava u skladu sa ustanovljenim obrascima u drugim zemljama. U radu su primenjeni "klasični" statistički metodi ocene cikličnih varijacija (2-test, Edwardsova procedura), zatim neki skorašnji metodi (peak-low ratio), a uveden je i jedan novi pokazatelj intenziteta mesečnih varijacija suicida (indeks MtMV). Istraživanjem je utvrđena unimodalna distribucija suicida, s maksimumom u proleće i leto i minimumom u zimu. Po mesecima, najviše samoubistava je u maju, dok je maksimalan prosečan broj samoubistava po danu izračunat za jun (21 % veći od proseka za 1990-2012). Decembar se izdvaja kao mesec s najmanjim brojem i najmanjim dnevnim prosekom samoubistava (25 % manje od proseka). Sezonalnost suicida je jasno izražena tokom čitavog posmatranog perioda, i nisu primećena bitnija kolebanja odnosno smanjenje intenziteta varijacije. Temporalne karakteristike su razmatrane i po polu, i nisu utvrđene bitnije razlike u cikličnosti suicida kod muškaraca i žena.
U Srbiji se 2020. godina, s demografske tačke gledišta, svakako izdvaja kao jedna od najmarkantni... more U Srbiji se 2020. godina, s demografske tačke gledišta, svakako izdvaja kao jedna od najmarkantnijih u 21. veku, a s aspekta smrtnosti stanovništva i u čitavom periodu nakon završetka Drugog svetskog rata. To je prvenstveno povezano s pojavom pandemije COVID-19 koja se do sada nezabeleženom brzinom proširila planetom. Cilj rada je da se da analiza osnovnih demografskih karakteristika Srbije prve godine pandemije i da se ukaže na najvažnije demografske posledice epidemije tog koronavirusnog oboljenja.
In Serbia, from a demographic point of view, 2020 certainly stands out as one of the most signifi... more In Serbia, from a demographic point of view, 2020 certainly stands out as one of the most significant years of the twenty-first century and, with respect to mortality, of the period after the end of the Second World War. This is mainly linked to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has spread across the planet at an unprecedented rate. The aim of this paper is to present the analysis of Serbia's basic demographic data during the first year of the pandemic and to highlight the most important demographic consequences of the epidemic of the current coronavirus disease. As of 31 December 2020, according to the official SORS estimates, Serbia had 6,871,500 inhabitants, 55,000 fewer than in 2019. The decline is 74% higher than the 20-year average. As the estimates do not include net migration, the real population size is significantly smaller and, according to the author's opinion, it reaches a maximum of 6.7 million (as in 1961). The death toll was 116,850 and it is 15.2%...
The social, economic, and cultural changes that have taken place in Europe in the past few decade... more The social, economic, and cultural changes that have taken place in Europe in the past few decades in the field of fertility have been accompanied by an increase in permanent childlessness. The childlessness level among women born in 1968 is 12% in Serbia, slightly below the European average (14%). The aim of this paper is to explore in more detail the level of childlessness in Serbia and the characteristics of women aged 15-49 without live births. Changes in childlessness over a 60-year period (1961-2020) by five-year age groups were analysed. The basic characteristics of childless women of reproductive age by education, marital status, and age were observed from 1991 to 2011. The paper is based on census and vital statistics data. The authors introduce two new indicators of childlessness: the general childlessness rate (GChR) as the share of women without live births in the total female population aged 15-49, and the age-specific childlessness rate (ASChR) as the percentage of chi...
Povećanje udela obudovelih uobičajeni je pratilac odmaklog starenja stanovništva. Srbija se sa st... more Povećanje udela obudovelih uobičajeni je pratilac odmaklog starenja stanovništva. Srbija se sa stopom obudovelosti od 11,7% 2011. godine nalazi pri samom evropskom vrhu, a stopa obudovelosti muškaraca (5,2%) najveća je u Evropi. U radu se istražuje obudovelost u Srbiji u periodu 1980-2016. Osnovni cilj rada je deskripcija trendova i karakteristika udovištva u posmatranom razdoblju. Rad je prvenstveno zasnovan na analizi do sada neobjavljenih podataka popisa stanovništva (između 1981. i 2011) i vitalne statistike (1980-2016). U posmatranom periodu je utvrđeno kontinuirano povećanje broja udovaca i udovica i njihovog udela u ukupnom stanovništvu. Uočene su specifičnosti u starosnoj i polnoj strukturi obudovelih. Više od 4/5 obudovelih je starije od 60 godina, a vrednosti svih pokazatelja obudovelosti su tri ili četiri puta veće kod žena. Sagledan je i nupcijalitet obudovelih u smislu sve ređeg sklapanja ponovnog braka i smanjenja rodnih razlika. Analizirana je obrazovna struktura obud...
Način izvršenja samoubistva je važna determinanta ishoda suicidnog ponašanja, a smanjenje dostupn... more Način izvršenja samoubistva je važna determinanta ishoda suicidnog ponašanja, a smanjenje dostupnosti najčešće korišćenih metoda ima značajan preventivni potencijal. U radu je analizirano kretanje ukupnog broja samoubistava u Srbiji prema načinu izvršenja u periodu 1990-2014, s naglaskom na strukturne razlike po polu i starosti. Relativna zastupljenost pojedinih starosnih grupa kod najčešće primenjivanih metoda suicida utvrđena je na osnovu dobijenih vrednosti pokazatelja relativnog rizika nazvanog starosni indeksi metoda suicida (SIMS). Korišćeni su podaci Republičkog zavoda za statistiku, i to uglavnom neobjavljeni. Rezultati analize pokazuju da je u Srbiji u periodu 1990-2014. vešanje izrazito najzastupljeniji metod samoubistva (61%). Sledeća po brojnosti, ali sa značajno manjim udelom, su samoubistva vatrenim oružjem (13%) i trovanjem (8%). Najveće promene su registrovane u pogledu povećanja samoubistava vatrenim oružjem, vremenski jasno povezane s početkom ratova na prostoru bi...
Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour La Documentation française. Distribution électronique C... more Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour La Documentation française. Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour La Documentation française. La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit. Article disponible en ligne à l'adresse Article disponible en ligne à l'adresse https://www.cairn.info/revue-le-courrier-des-pays-de-lest -2003-5-page-43.htm Découvrir le sommaire de ce numéro, suivre la revue par email, s'abonner... Flashez ce QR Code pour accéder à la page de ce numéro sur Cairn.info.
By the first preliminary results, Serbia had a population of 7.1 million, which, according to the... more By the first preliminary results, Serbia had a population of 7.1 million, which, according to the Serbian Statistical Office, constitutes a decrease of 377 thousand persons compared to the size of the population at the time of 2002 Census. However, given the different definitions of total population (with or without persons abroad who have been outside of the country for less than a year, and further, with or without the internally displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija), this comparison of the initial results of 2011 Census and the final results of 2002 Census is methodologically unsound, leading to incorrect conclusions about the change of the population size between the two censuses. In this paper, we analyze the changes in population size for the intercensal period 2002-2011 based on comparable data from the 2002 and 2011 Censuses, which allows for more accurate understanding of depopulation of Serbia and the immediate demographic causes of this depopulation. According to th...
The method of suicide is an important determinant of the outcome of suicidal behavior, and the re... more The method of suicide is an important determinant of the outcome of suicidal behavior, and the reduction of the availability of the most frequently used methods has significant preventive potential. This paper analyzes the dynamics of the total number of suicides in Serbia according to method used in the period of 1990-2014, with an emphasis on structural differences by sex and age. The relative participation of certain age groups in the most commonly used suicide methods is indicated based on the calculated values of the relative risk referred to as the age ratio of method of suicide (ARMS). The analysis is based on the data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, mostly unpublished. The results of the analysis show that in Serbia, in the period of 1990-2014, hanging was the most commonly used suicide method (61%). The next in number, but with a significantly smaller share, were suicides by a firearm (13%) and poisoning (8%).The biggest changes were registered with reg...
Atlas of Challenges and Opportunities in European Neighbourhoods, Mar 2016
This atlas provides a macro-regional overview of the areas that surround the European Union, from... more This atlas provides a macro-regional overview of the areas that surround the European Union, from the Sahara to the Middle East, Western Balkans to European Russia, Turkey to the Arctic. Detailing key socio-economic data as well as developmental trends, the maps provide a comprehensive territorial analysis at a local scale and explore the potential for regional integration and cooperation.These pioneering maps examine challenges that threaten this wide, yet inter-connected, region, including environmental concerns in the North, political unrest in the East, social factors in the Western Balkans, and the upheaval in the Mediterranean since the Arab spring. Coverage investigates such key countries and areas as Libya, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and the Ukraine as well as explores such essential issues as Europe’s energy procurement. In addition, it also presents a comparison with other world regions such as East Asia and North America.In the end, readers discover that territorial integration faces many shortcomings, but that deep regional cooperation would be a key driver for the EU’s sustainable future. This atlas features the main results of the “Integrated Territorial Analysis of the Neighbourhoods” research project undertaken by ESPON (The European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion). It provides scholars; local authorities and NGOs involved in cross-border cooperation; companies interested in energy, agriculture, water, transportation and communication; and interested readers with key insights into this important region.
This chapter focuses on four stakes: (i) the huge demographic changes of the Western Balkans, and the mobility issue namely due to a re-bordering process since the end of the Yugoslavian wars ; (ii) the undeniable income rise but also rising social disparities; (iii) an economy which is just recovering with strong geographical fragmentation; (iv) in the field of environment, an early stage regulation and the necessity for a rising international cooperation with the European union. We highlight a still low international openness, an obvious core-periphery
Atlas of Challenges and Opportunities in European Neighbourhoods
This chapter focuses on four stakes: (i) the huge demographic changes of the Western Balkans, and... more This chapter focuses on four stakes: (i) the huge demographic changes of the Western Balkans, and the mobility issue namely due to a re-bordering process since the end of the Yugoslavian wars ; (ii) the undeniable income rise but also rising social disparities; (iii) an economy which is just recovering with strong geographical fragmentation; (iv) in the field of environment, an early stage regulation and the necessity for a rising international cooperation with the European union. We highlight a still low international openness, an obvious core-periphery
Vladimir Nikitović (urednik/editor): Populacija Srbije početkom 21. veka [Population of Sebia at the beginning of the 21st century]
Poglavlje u knjizi Populacija Srbije početkom 21. veka. U studiji je data analize najvažnijih pok... more Poglavlje u knjizi Populacija Srbije početkom 21. veka. U studiji je data analize najvažnijih pokazatelja koji se mogu sagledati iz rezultata Popisa stanovništva i domaćinstava Srbije 2011 (populaciona dinamika, fertilitet, migracije, socioekonomska struktura stanovništva), predstavljena je i analiza domaćinstava i porodica.
Stanovništvo i domaćinstva Srbije prema popisu 1981. [Population and households of Serbia according to the 1981 Census], 1984
Rad predstavlja poglavlje u studiji o stanovništvu Srbije prema rezultatima popisa iz 1981. godi... more Rad predstavlja poglavlje u studiji o stanovništvu Srbije prema rezultatima popisa iz 1981. godine. Analizirani su podaci o strukturnim karakteristikama stanovništva prema ekonomskim obeležjima, kao i promene u odnosu na stanje u vreme prethodnih popisa stanovištva (1953, 1961. i 1971). Analiziran je sastav stanovništva prema ekonomskoj aktivnosti, zatim aktivnog stanovništva prema sektoru delatnosti i zanimanju. Posebno je obrađeno poljoprivrivredno stanovništvo (ukupno i aktivno) s naglaskom na njegov sastav po polu i starosti. Na kraju poglavlja ukazano je na osnovne strukturne karakteristike građana Srbije na privremenom radu ili boravku u inostranstvu (pol, dužina boravka van zemlje, školska sprema), a predstavljeni su i podaci o "povratnicima" prema vremenu provedenom na radu u inostranstvu.
Zbornik "Migracije, krize i ratni sukobi na Balkanu s kraja 20. veka" sadrži izbor prevedenih rad... more Zbornik "Migracije, krize i ratni sukobi na Balkanu s kraja 20. veka" sadrži izbor prevedenih radova sa međunarodnog naučnog skupa koji je pod naslovom "Migracije, krize i nedavni ratni sukobi na Balkanu / Migrations, crises et conflits récents dans les Balkans / Migrations, Crises and Recent Conflicts in the Balkans" održan u Beogradu od 27. do 29. oktobra 2005. godine. To je bila treća konferencija posvećena demografiji Balkana u organizaciji međunarodnog udruženja DemoBalk. Tema konferencije su bile migracije na prostoru Balkana koje su se odvijale od početka 1990-ih godina, a koje su bile direktna posledica ekonomskih i političkih kriza uslovljenih korenitim društvenopolitičkim promenama iz 1990-ih godina kao i ratnim zbivanjima koja su potresala to područje tokom poslednje decenije 20. veka. Cilj je bio da se sagledaju pravci i obim migracionih kretanja (spoljnih i unutrašnjih), kao i da se ocene njihove, pre svega, demografske posledice, kako za zemlje regiona, tako i za zemlje koje su u posmatranom periodu prihvatile najveći broj migranata poreklom iz balkanskih zemalja. Prilikom selekcije radova vodilo se prvenstveno računa da budu obuhvaćene sve tematske celine i da to budu saopštenja koja bi mogla da privuku posebnu pažnju čitalačke publike iz Srbije i, uopšte, sa prostora bivše SFRJ.
Seobe i razvoj [Migration and Development], May 25, 2016
Abstract.
The aim of the paper is to highlight the importance of studying migration within the mi... more Abstract. The aim of the paper is to highlight the importance of studying migration within the migration systems and the role of migrant networks, as the basis for understanding migration volume and features. We analyzed the data on the Serbian population working and residing abroad and examined changes between 1991 and 2011, based on the Serbian census data conducted during this period. The results of the analysis, as well as expectations of migration scholars on expanding the activities of migrant networks, enable us to perceive the potential of migrant networks in further emigration flows from Serbia. Therefore, considering migration from the transnational perspective, it is important to rapidly develop the potential of migrant networks that can link Serbia, as a country of origin, and different receiving countries, with the aim of utilizing human, social, financial capital of emigrants for the development of Serbia.
Sažetak. Cilj rada je da se na osnovu analize podataka o građanima Srbije na radu ili boravku u inostranstvu ukaže na značaj proučavanja migracija u okviru migracionih sistema, i uloge migrantskih mreža, kao osnove za razumevanje njihovih tokova i obima. Posmatrane su promene između 1991. i 2011. godine, i to na osnovu rezultata popisa stanovništva Srbije obavljenih u tom periodu. Rezultati analize, kao i očekivanja teoretičara migracija o proširivanju aktivnosti migrantskih mreža, omogućavaju da se sagleda potencijal migrantskih mreža koji mogu da imaju u daljim emigracionim kretanjima iz Srbije. S tim u vezi, posmotrano iz transnacionalne perspektive, treba ubrzano razvijati i potencijal migrantskih mreža za povezivanje Srbije, kao zemlje porekla, i zemalja prijema, u cilju iskorišćenja ljudskog, socijalnog, finansijskog kapitala emigranata za razvitak Srbije.
The paper explores the dynamics of the number of suicides in the period of 1990-2014 and discover... more The paper explores the dynamics of the number of suicides in the period of 1990-2014 and discovers differences in the direction and intensity of changes in the number of suicides in several subperiods. For Serbia, from a political, social, and economic aspect, that 25-year period encompasses at least three distinct subperiods: the breakdown of former Yugoslavia and conflicts that ensued during the 1990s (1990-2000); change of political regime and the delayed transition in the early 2000s (2001-2006); recession period after the beginning of the global finance crisis (2007-2014). The official statistical data for Serbia (excluding Kosovo) imply that the highest number of suicides was in the first subperiod, especially in the time of the culmination of the crisis connected to the disintegration of former Yugoslavia (1991-1993), while a trend of decrease has been noticeable in the two last subperiods. Positive changes in suicide rate recorded in two other subperiods do not imply that the societal and economic crisis had a negative effect on suicide mortality. The increase in suicides in the first subperiod, the period of the war conflicts, can be connected to a certain extent to the greater availability of firearms, highly lethal suicide means. The paper also looks at the other most frequently used suicide methods as well as the changes in the observed period. The analysis showed that there was a multifold increase in the use of firearms in committed suicides in the period of an increase in the number of suicides during the first years of greatest crisis, especially for young and young adult population. In this context, the paper determine a change occurred in Serbia's ranking on the European list according to suicide rate, as well as what types of differences exist in the dynamics of these changes in comparison to other countries. Special attention is paid to the trends in ex-communist European countries, including former Yugoslav republics. Trends in Serbia resemble those recorded in some other transition countries, but the increase in the suicide rate in Serbia in the first subperiod and its subsequent decrease was less intensive. Suicides do not equally affect the old and the young, men and women. Therefore the paper observes suicides in Serbia in relation to most significant characteristics of the deceased, age and sex, aimed to explore not only the differences at the level of suicides but also similarities of the changes in the observed subperiods. This is especially relevant for determining the level differences of male and female suicide rates by age and simultaneity of the highest overall and age-specific suicide rates. The number of suicides for men and women changed in the same direction, but the decrease among women was greater, which increased the pre-existing differences.
Démographie et Cultures, 15e colloque international de l'AIDELF à Québec (Canada), 2008
Pour affirmer l’égalité ethnique, autant que pour limiter l’hégémonie serbe sur la Yougoslavie co... more Pour affirmer l’égalité ethnique, autant que pour limiter l’hégémonie serbe sur la Yougoslavie communiste, l'ancien pouvoir avait instauré la nationalité monténégrine (aussi que la macédonienne). En 1948, au Monténégro 91 % de la population avait déclaré appartenir au groupe des Monténégrins. Le Monténégro était alors, juste après la Slovénie, la république yougoslave à structure ethnique la plus homogène.
Au fil du temps, le groupe des Monténégrins a vu diminuer sa part dans la population totale, en relation avec la reconnaissance des Musulmans en tant que groupe et la préférence de plus en plus marquée des Monténégrins pour la nationalité serbe ou albanaise. Le changement de structure ethnique tient également au différentiel d'accroissement naturel des diverses sous-populations. En 2003, les Monténégrins représentaient 41 % de la population totale, leur effectif ayant diminué de quelque 70 000 personnes (de 342 000 à 273 000) en 55 ans. Sur la même période, la proportion de Serbes s’est élevée de 2 % à 30 %, tandis que leur nombre a été multiplié par un facteur 30 (de 6 700 à 201 900).
La communication explique les évolutions démographiques contrastées des Monténégrins et des Serbes, deux groupes très semblables : même langue, même alphabet, même religion, des traditions et cultures proches, .... Les auteurs analysent la dynamique globale de ces deux groupes, ainsi que la dynamique propre à chacun d’eux de 1948 à 2003.
This country report was developed in the framework of SEEMIG – Managing Migration and its Effects... more This country report was developed in the framework of SEEMIG – Managing Migration and its Effects in SEE – Transnational Actions towards Evidence-based Strategies. SEEMIG is a strategic project funded by the European Union’s South-East Europe Programme. Project code: SEEMIG - SEE/C/0006/4.1/X
The country report was prepared within the SEEMIG activity Conceptual framework for modelling longer term migratory, labour market and human capital processes coordinated by the University of Vienna.
Executive Summary SFR Yugoslavia, and thereby Serbia as well, was considerably more liberal in comparison to other European socialist countries of real socialism in the economic and political sense from the 1950s up to the end of the 1980s. Numerous economic and social reforms, especially in period of crisis of mid-1960s, aimed to strengthen the economy of the country. In the late 1980s a program of economic reforms and the Law on Social Capital were adopted, which was the beginning of the transition to the market economy. However, the changes started too late considering the presence of very strong disintegration processes that resulted in the break-up of the SFR Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. The dissolution of the SFR Yugoslavia in 1991 and the ensuing wars and international sanctions imposed to Serbia led to a major decrease in economic activities and to the blocking of the transition process. After the fall of Milošević's regime in 2000 and complete lifting of severe international sanctions, comprehensive political and economic reforms began, as well as intensification of Euro-Atlantic integrations (the stabilisation and Association Agreement was signed in 2008, and visas for Schengen area were abolished in 2009). It is also a period of intensified increase of GDP per capita (the level of 1980 was achieved in 2005) which again started to decrease with the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2009 together with a general trend of increased unemployment. The political and socio-economic situation in the SFR Yugoslavia considerably affected international migration. After the Second World War, the communist regime almost completely suppressed legal international migration. In case of Serbia, the exception were the controlled emigration of the majority of remaining ethnic Germans (beginning of the 1950s) and Turks, namely population of Islamic affiliation (based on Balkan pact from 1954). Political liberalization from the middle of the 1960s was followed by an expansion of international economic migration. The emigration stock continually increased until the figure of 270,000 persons in 1991. Emigration intensified during the 1990s, so the stock rose to 415,000, according to the 2002 Census, while the 2011 Census showed that it decreased by more than 25 per cent in relation to 2002. However, based on available data on main countries of destination, it may be concluded that the emigration stock was considerably higher. During and after the wars in the Western Balkans in the 1990s Serbia became one of the main destinations for refugees (mainly ethnic Serbs) from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia (more than 600,000 according to refugee census from 1996). Right before and during the NATO military campaign in 1999, over 200,000 internally displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija came to Serbia. The refugees from Croatia are mainly settled in Vojvodina, and the refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina and internally displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija in Central Serbia excluding Belgrade. Serbia never had a complex migration policy as an independent country or as a part of Yugoslavia (from 1950 to 2006). The Yugoslav government led a very rigorous migration policy all up to the mid 1960s. Emigration was possible only based on bilateral agreements with other countries. Strict limitations for leaving the country were abolished in the mid 1960s, employment abroad and emigration were completely liberated, and there was an effort to protect the legal rights of Yugoslav citizens “temporarily” working abroad through bilateral international agreements. During the 1970s, the government helped returnees to start their own business in the country, but only as a response to intensive return migrations (after the 1973 Oil Crisis). If we consider the case of Serbia’s joining the EU as a realistic future, we would not expect it could happen before 2021 given the current status of the country in respect to the joining process. In the meanwhile, the negative net migration, roughly estimated to be around 15,000 persons per year in the period 2009-2011, might reduce slightly, owing to the financial crisis in Europe. In addition, the perspective of Serbia’s joining the EU may generate a deferred demand for emigration, to be realized after Serbia’s accession. Serbia’s accession to the EU would surely have an important effect, namely, a large-scale emigration of an explosive but relatively short-lived nature, as it happened with emigration flows of Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians and Slovaks after the 2004 EU enlargement. This is supported by the results of the representative survey from 2010 aimed at estimating potential for emigration from Serbia. However, the post-accession negative net migration from Serbia should be relatively lower, as compared to the situation in the new, post-socialist Member States during the period from 2004 to 2009, mainly due to retiring of the vast majority of the post-war baby boom generations. After the short period of high volume emigration induced by the EU accession, it is reasonable to expect a rapid reduction of negative net migration and, finally, a turn towards positive net migration some 10-15 years later. In that sense, the significance of immigration from third countries will most likely rise over time. However, migration component of the population development is not visible in the political, economic, academic and public discourse of Serbian society. In the strategic documents which the state adopted towards migrations, there has not even been an attempt to find solutions regarding a more complete political response towards international migrations. In the absence of official Serbian statistics, the best source of information on international migration flows from and to Serbia are the data from the destination countries. However, it is probably even impossible to give a reliable estimate of the flows and its changes in time due to political changes in respect to borders and name of the country during the last decade, which particularly affected quality of the destination countries’ migration data by citizenship. Consequently, even in those countries with good registration systems and good statistics on international migration, there are no series of data covering the period prior to 2009 and relating specifically to migrants coming from, or departing to, the territory of the present-day Republic of Serbia excluding Kosovo and Metohija. Furthermore, there is a lack of data for some important destination countries, particularly in respect of return flows. A sufficiently developed consciousness in the political and public discourse on the significance of the migratory phenomenon does not exist in Serbia, nor are the potentials completely recognized of including migrations in development programmes for the country’s revival, including demographic revitalization, and particularly the requirement to comprehensively act in this sphere is underdeveloped. Thus it is necessary to convey the findings of various research regarding migrations to decision makers. The necessity for understanding the emigration drivers should especially be underlined. In that sense, the least what is expected from the state is to strengthen the economy, support health, educational and ecological programmes, develop democratic processes and create an atmosphere of optimism. At the same time, it is important to promote circular movements, accelerate reintegration of returnees and stimulate transfer of knowledge, enhancing the role of Serbian diaspora. Economic and social development of Serbia would not only contribute to a decrease of emigration but would also accelerate immigration into the country. Apart from that, it is important to promote registration of all types of immigrants, define target groups of immigrant population and develop integration measures such as language learning, education or active measures of employing foreigners. At the same time, it is important to create a positive climate towards immigration, develop tolerance and acceptance of immigrants in Serbia.
Р е п у б л и к а С р б и ј а ФИСКАЛНИ САВЕТ У складу са стандардима Европске комисије и Пакта о ... more Р е п у б л и к а С р б и ј а ФИСКАЛНИ САВЕТ У складу са стандардима Европске комисије и Пакта о стабилности и расту ЕУ, који прописују да би све дугорочне фискалне пројекције требало да узимају у обзир демографске податке о старењу становништва, које је у Србији израженије од већине земаља чланица ЕУ, како би се на адекватан начин пројектовала фискална одрживост националних система, Фискални савет је координирао израду студије "Пројекције становништва Србије у периоду од 2010. до 2060 године".
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Papers by Goran Penev
This chapter focuses on four stakes: (i) the huge demographic changes of the Western Balkans, and the mobility issue namely due to a re-bordering process since the end of the Yugoslavian wars ; (ii) the undeniable income rise but also rising social disparities; (iii) an economy which is just recovering with strong geographical fragmentation; (iv) in the field of environment, an early stage regulation and the necessity for a rising international cooperation with the European union. We highlight a still low international openness, an obvious core-periphery
The aim of the paper is to highlight the importance of studying migration within the migration systems and the role of migrant networks, as the basis for understanding migration volume and features. We analyzed the data on the Serbian population working and residing abroad and examined changes between 1991 and 2011, based on the Serbian census data conducted during this period. The results of the analysis, as well as expectations of migration scholars on expanding the activities of migrant networks, enable us to perceive the potential of migrant networks in further emigration flows from Serbia. Therefore, considering migration from the transnational perspective, it is important to rapidly develop the potential of migrant networks that can link Serbia, as a country of origin, and different receiving countries, with the aim of utilizing human, social, financial capital of emigrants for the development of Serbia.
Sažetak. Cilj rada je da se na osnovu analize podataka o građanima Srbije na radu ili boravku u inostranstvu ukaže na značaj proučavanja migracija u okviru migracionih sistema, i uloge migrantskih mreža, kao osnove za razumevanje njihovih tokova i obima. Posmatrane su promene između 1991. i 2011. godine, i to na osnovu rezultata popisa stanovništva Srbije obavljenih u tom periodu. Rezultati analize, kao i očekivanja teoretičara migracija o proširivanju aktivnosti migrantskih mreža, omogućavaju da se sagleda potencijal migrantskih mreža koji mogu da imaju u daljim emigracionim kretanjima iz Srbije. S tim u vezi, posmotrano iz transnacionalne perspektive, treba ubrzano razvijati i potencijal migrantskih mreža za povezivanje Srbije, kao zemlje porekla, i zemalja prijema, u cilju iskorišćenja ljudskog, socijalnog, finansijskog kapitala emigranata za razvitak Srbije.
In this context, the paper determine a change occurred in Serbia's ranking on the European list according to suicide rate, as well as what types of differences exist in the dynamics of these changes in comparison to other countries. Special attention is paid to the trends in ex-communist European countries, including former Yugoslav republics. Trends in Serbia resemble those recorded in some other transition countries, but the increase in the suicide rate in Serbia in the first subperiod and its subsequent decrease was less intensive.
Suicides do not equally affect the old and the young, men and women. Therefore the paper observes suicides in Serbia in relation to most significant characteristics of the deceased, age and sex, aimed to explore not only the differences at the level of suicides but also similarities of the changes in the observed subperiods. This is especially relevant for determining the level differences of male and female suicide rates by age and simultaneity of the highest overall and age-specific suicide rates. The number of suicides for men and women changed in the same direction, but the decrease among women was greater, which increased the pre-existing differences.
Au fil du temps, le groupe des Monténégrins a vu diminuer sa part dans la population totale, en relation avec la reconnaissance des Musulmans en tant que groupe et la préférence de plus en plus marquée des Monténégrins pour la nationalité serbe ou albanaise. Le changement de structure ethnique tient également au différentiel d'accroissement naturel des diverses sous-populations. En 2003, les Monténégrins représentaient 41 % de la population totale, leur effectif ayant diminué de quelque 70 000 personnes (de 342 000 à 273 000) en 55 ans. Sur la même période, la proportion de Serbes s’est élevée de 2 % à 30 %, tandis que leur nombre a été multiplié par un facteur 30 (de 6 700 à 201 900).
La communication explique les évolutions démographiques contrastées des Monténégrins et des Serbes, deux groupes très semblables : même langue, même alphabet, même religion, des traditions et cultures proches, .... Les auteurs analysent la dynamique globale de ces deux groupes, ainsi que la dynamique propre à chacun d’eux de 1948 à 2003.
The country report was prepared within the SEEMIG activity Conceptual framework for modelling longer term migratory, labour market and human capital processes coordinated by the University of Vienna.
Executive Summary
SFR Yugoslavia, and thereby Serbia as well, was considerably more liberal in comparison to other European socialist countries of real socialism in the economic and political sense from the 1950s up to the end of the 1980s. Numerous economic and social reforms, especially in period of crisis of mid-1960s, aimed to strengthen the economy of the country. In the late 1980s a program of economic reforms and the Law on Social Capital were adopted, which was the beginning of the transition to the market economy. However, the changes started too late considering the presence of very strong disintegration processes that resulted in the break-up of the SFR Yugoslavia in the early 1990s.
The dissolution of the SFR Yugoslavia in 1991 and the ensuing wars and international sanctions imposed to Serbia led to a major decrease in economic activities and to the blocking of the transition process. After the fall of Milošević's regime in 2000 and complete lifting of severe international sanctions, comprehensive political and economic reforms began, as well as intensification of Euro-Atlantic integrations (the stabilisation and Association Agreement was signed in 2008, and visas for Schengen area were abolished in 2009). It is also a period of intensified increase of GDP per capita (the level of 1980 was achieved in 2005) which again started to decrease with the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2009 together with a general trend of increased unemployment.
The political and socio-economic situation in the SFR Yugoslavia considerably affected international migration. After the Second World War, the communist regime almost completely suppressed legal international migration. In case of Serbia, the exception were the controlled emigration of the majority of remaining ethnic Germans (beginning of the 1950s) and Turks, namely population of Islamic affiliation (based on Balkan pact from 1954). Political liberalization from the middle of the 1960s was followed by an expansion of international economic migration. The emigration stock continually increased until the figure of 270,000 persons in 1991. Emigration intensified during the 1990s, so the stock rose to 415,000, according to the 2002 Census, while the 2011 Census showed that it decreased by more than 25 per cent in relation to 2002. However, based on available data on main countries of destination, it may be concluded that the emigration stock was considerably higher.
During and after the wars in the Western Balkans in the 1990s Serbia became one of the main destinations for refugees (mainly ethnic Serbs) from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia (more than 600,000 according to refugee census from 1996). Right before and during the NATO military campaign in 1999, over 200,000 internally displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija came to Serbia. The refugees from Croatia are mainly settled in Vojvodina, and the refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina and internally displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija in Central Serbia excluding Belgrade.
Serbia never had a complex migration policy as an independent country or as a part of Yugoslavia (from 1950 to 2006). The Yugoslav government led a very rigorous migration policy all up to the mid 1960s. Emigration was possible only based on bilateral agreements with other countries. Strict limitations for leaving the country were abolished in the mid 1960s, employment abroad and emigration were completely liberated, and there was an effort to protect the legal rights of Yugoslav citizens “temporarily” working abroad through bilateral international agreements. During the 1970s, the government helped returnees to start their own business in the country, but only as a response to intensive return migrations (after the 1973 Oil Crisis).
If we consider the case of Serbia’s joining the EU as a realistic future, we would not expect it could happen before 2021 given the current status of the country in respect to the joining process. In the meanwhile, the negative net migration, roughly estimated to be around 15,000 persons per year in the period 2009-2011, might reduce slightly, owing to the financial crisis in Europe. In addition, the perspective of Serbia’s joining the EU may generate a deferred demand for emigration, to be realized after Serbia’s accession.
Serbia’s accession to the EU would surely have an important effect, namely, a large-scale emigration of an explosive but relatively short-lived nature, as it happened with emigration flows of Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians and Slovaks after the 2004 EU enlargement. This is supported by the results of the representative survey from 2010 aimed at estimating potential for emigration from Serbia. However, the post-accession negative net migration from Serbia should be relatively lower, as compared to the situation in the new, post-socialist Member States during the period from 2004 to 2009, mainly due to retiring of the vast majority of the post-war baby boom generations. After the short period of high volume emigration induced by the EU accession, it is reasonable to expect a rapid reduction of negative net migration and, finally, a turn towards positive net migration some 10-15 years later. In that sense, the significance of immigration from third countries will most likely rise over time. However, migration component of the population development is not visible in the political, economic, academic and public discourse of Serbian society. In the strategic documents which the state adopted towards migrations, there has not even been an attempt to find solutions regarding a more complete political response towards international migrations.
In the absence of official Serbian statistics, the best source of information on international migration flows from and to Serbia are the data from the destination countries. However, it is probably even impossible to give a reliable estimate of the flows and its changes in time due to political changes in respect to borders and name of the country during the last decade, which particularly affected quality of the destination countries’ migration data by citizenship. Consequently, even in those countries with good registration systems and good statistics on international migration, there are no series of data covering the period prior to 2009 and relating specifically to migrants coming from, or departing to, the territory of the present-day Republic of Serbia excluding Kosovo and Metohija. Furthermore, there is a lack of data for some important destination countries, particularly in respect of return flows.
A sufficiently developed consciousness in the political and public discourse on the significance of the migratory phenomenon does not exist in Serbia, nor are the potentials completely recognized of including migrations in development programmes for the country’s revival, including demographic revitalization, and particularly the requirement to comprehensively act in this sphere is underdeveloped. Thus it is necessary to convey the findings of various research regarding migrations to decision makers.
The necessity for understanding the emigration drivers should especially be underlined. In that sense, the least what is expected from the state is to strengthen the economy, support health, educational and ecological programmes, develop democratic processes and create an atmosphere of optimism. At the same time, it is important to promote circular movements, accelerate reintegration of returnees and stimulate transfer of knowledge, enhancing the role of Serbian diaspora.
Economic and social development of Serbia would not only contribute to a decrease of emigration but would also accelerate immigration into the country. Apart from that, it is important to promote registration of all types of immigrants, define target groups of immigrant population and develop integration measures such as language learning, education or active measures of employing foreigners. At the same time, it is important to create a positive climate towards immigration, develop tolerance and acceptance of immigrants in Serbia.