Policy briefs by Annelies Pauwels
Flemish Peace Institute, 2022
De LIVC R - een multidisciplinair overlegplatform waarin casussen van (potentieel) gewelddadig ex... more De LIVC R - een multidisciplinair overlegplatform waarin casussen van (potentieel) gewelddadig extremisme besproken worden - ontstond op lokaal niveau als antwoord op de Syriëstrijders problematiek. Dit overlegplatform is, samen met de Lokale Taskforce uitgegroeid tot de spil van de Belgische veiligheidsstructuur in de preventie en aanpak van radicalisering, extremisme en terrorisme.
Ondanks de inzet vanuit de Vlaamse en federale overheden om de LIVC R te professionaliseren en verankeren, verhinderen enkele drempels het casusoverleg om zich tot een duurzaam, gedragen en performant overlegplatform te kunnen ontwikkelen. Deze nota bespreekt vier aandachtspunten en uitdagingen voor de toekomst:
• een beperkt draagvlak voor het casusoverleg bij sociale partners;
• de steeds evoluerende context van gewelddadig extremisme;
• de nood aan evaluatie van de (werking van de) LIVC R;
• de nood aan structurele verduurzaming van de LIVC R en overdracht van opgedane kennis.
Flemish Peace Institute, 2022
Cumulatief extremisme is het proces waarbij verschillende vormen van extremisme op elkaar reagere... more Cumulatief extremisme is het proces waarbij verschillende vormen van extremisme op elkaar reageren en elkaar versterken, wat zich vaak vertaalt in een dynamiek van al dan niet gewelddadige reacties en tegenreacties. Dergelijke dynamieken doen zich ook voor in België, bijvoorbeeld tussen links- en rechts-extremisten, rechts-extremistische en islamistische bewegingen, en nationalistische facties van sommige diasporagroepen. Verregaande visies over de in-groep (het eigen slachtofferschap) en de out-groep (de ‘dreigende ander’) kunnen processen van cumulatief extremisme in stand houden en doen escaleren. Overheden kunnen deze vijandbeelden en framing op een negatieve of positieve manier beïnvloeden. Indien zij het risico op cumulatief extremisme willen beperken, is het belangrijk dat zij inzetten op een scherpgestelde beeldvorming over extremisme die nauw aansluit bij de realiteit.
Flemish Peace Institute, 2022
Adopting a whole-of-society action plan to preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) ma... more Adopting a whole-of-society action plan to preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) may be a challenging task, as it compels governments to navigate their way across various fields of tension. Governments generally have primacy on security but in a whole-of-society approach civil society organisations, local authorities, communities and other actors do. For a government this approach constitutes an opportunity to reflect on how much autonomy it is willing to give to these actors, on its role - initiative-taker, leader, coordinator? – and – more broadly – its relationship with its citizens.
There is much literature on radicalisation and how to prevent or counter it yet, in practice, attempts to set up a whole-of-society approach may be quite distant from that theory. The Flemish Peace Institute’s evaluation of the Flemish action plan helps to bridge this distance by focusing on four crucial components: conceptual framework and vision, multi-stakeholder engagement, flexibility in response to an evolving security context and evaluation.
Radicalisation Awareness Network, 2021
The increase in lone-actor terrorist attacks in Europe is concerning: lone actors’ relative isola... more The increase in lone-actor terrorist attacks in Europe is concerning: lone actors’ relative isolation compared to group actors, as well as the near-spontaneous character of their attacks have made it harder for law enforcement to detect and disrupt their plans. The latest Europol terrorist threat assessment highlights that in 2019, all but one of the seven jihadist attacks or failed attacks in the EU were committed by individuals acting alone, while most foiled plots by jihadists involved multiple suspects 1. Much of our understanding of lone actors has been sourced from data sets spanning the period 1940 to 2015, so as to ensure large enough samples for analysis. Recent efforts focus on creating smaller and richer data sets from 2015 for more contemporary relevance. This paper provides an overview of past research and discusses more recent lone- actor profiling and their psychology as well as the challenge of identifying lone actors.
Radicalisation Awareness Network , 2021
Right-wing violence is rising across the EU, illustrating the need for adequate measures to preve... more Right-wing violence is rising across the EU, illustrating the need for adequate measures to prevent and counter the threat. Yet, many existing preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) measures have been developed around Islamist extremism or in response to the wave of violent right-wing extremism (VRWE) three decades ago.
This paper explores whether measures to deal with previous right-wing extremist expressions are fit to counter current manifestations of right-wing extremism. It describes the modern (violent) right-wing extremist scene and how it has evolved from past manifestations. It also highlights a number of promising practices from previous programmes targeting right-wing violence. Several core concepts of these approaches remain highly valuable today. However, a more diverse “at-risk” group, increasing internationalisation and online presence demand for supplementary measures and a rethink of some aspects.
Policy Brief; EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), Feb 8, 2017
In a marked shift from previous policies, many advanced economies are creating labour market inte... more In a marked shift from previous policies, many advanced economies are creating labour market integration initiatives for refugees. This Brief argues that although this might seem a shortcut to a more progressive strategy, it risks undermining the integrity of refugee policy and repeating the mistakes of the 1990s.
Policy Brief, EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), Oct 5, 2016
Migrant groups are influential actors in the international arena. Globally, diaspora communities ... more Migrant groups are influential actors in the international arena. Globally, diaspora communities and governments alike are capitalising on this state of affairs, as demonstrated by the fact that diaspora lobbying is on the rise and governments are seeking to instrumentalise their expatriates. This Alert looks at how the EU finds itself increasingly exposed to foreign states’ interference through its migrant/diaspora communities.
Policy Brief, EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), Apr 20, 2016
Countering violent extremism (CVE) is a fledging approach to combatting radicalisation in the Hor... more Countering violent extremism (CVE) is a fledging approach to combatting radicalisation in the Horn of Africa. But in spite of encouraging progress, CVE remains a tall order as programme implementation continues to be regionally fragmented and largely underfunded.
EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), Jun 9, 2016
Thanks to Daesh’s recent territorial gains in Libya, its rivalry with the al-Qaeda network has be... more Thanks to Daesh’s recent territorial gains in Libya, its rivalry with the al-Qaeda network has been taken to the next level. In their battle for supporters, fighters and funding, the jihadists are competing fiercely for the most lucrative ‘industry’ in the region: kidnapping-for-ransom.
Freedom from Fear - UNICRI, Jun 2015
The self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) recently shocked the world by destro... more The self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) recently shocked the world by destroying a number of archaeological sites throughout the region under its control, among which also the ancient Assyrian cities of Nineveh and Nimrud. Determined to impose its culture as the dominant one in the region, Daesh – the Arabic equivalent of ISIS – calls for the destruction of all cultural property referring to other religious groups, as well as Islamic artefacts they consider haram or forbidden in Islam, such as religious shrines and art depicting human faces. In reality, the trade in looted artefacts from Syria and Iraq to the rest of the world represents a major source of income for the terrorist group.
EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), Mar 8, 2017
To step up the fight against terrorism, the EU is looking to forge closer ties with strategic cou... more To step up the fight against terrorism, the EU is looking to forge closer ties with strategic countries in its Southern Neighbourhood. The Union’s initiatives to set up counter-terrorism dialogues in the region have, however, been met with a hesitant response. How can the EU overcome different interpretations of what effective counter-terrorism should look like?
Expert contribution - Global Terrorism Index 2019, 2019
Recent high-profile lone actor attacks and the detection of similar plans by terrorist networks h... more Recent high-profile lone actor attacks and the detection of similar plans by terrorist networks have made the threat emanating from right-wing terrorism evident. A rise in right-wing violence poses a number of challenges to current counterterrorism efforts. It puts additional strains on existing deficiencies in resources and personnel, but also defies some approaches adopted to prevent and counter terrorism.These challenges urge security actors to work out a balanced distribution of resources to counter the multiple terrorist ideologies and to rethink some assumptions on how terrorism manifests itself. The current situation also represents an opportunity to improve and relaunch some much-criticised features of countering violent extremism (CVE).
EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), 2019
This grey swan scenario forms part of the EUISS Chaillot Paper "What if ...? Scanning the horizon... more This grey swan scenario forms part of the EUISS Chaillot Paper "What if ...? Scanning the horizon: 12 scenarios for 2021", designed to help decision-makers think about possible responses to crises and how they can be prevented.
EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), 2017
This grey swan scenario forms part of the EUISS Report "What if ... Conceivable crises: Unpredict... more This grey swan scenario forms part of the EUISS Report "What if ... Conceivable crises: Unpredictable in 2017, unmanageable in 2020?", designed to help decision-makers think about possible responses to crises and how they can be prevented.
Policy Brief, EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), 2017
Late in 2016, the UN started negotiations on a new global migration regime. For 20 years, the UN ... more Late in 2016, the UN started negotiations on a new global migration regime. For 20 years, the UN has struggled to mobilise its members to discuss migration, despite heavy support from less-developed economies in the ‘global South’ which see this as a means to gain access to labour markets in Europe and North America. The UN has finally managed to bring the ‘North’ to the table by pointing to the sheer volume of people on the move. But do its headline figures reveal the whole picture?
Policy Brief, EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), 2017
The EU has a reputation for setting good standards. During the migration crisis, the humanitarian... more The EU has a reputation for setting good standards. During the migration crisis, the humanitarian sector (non-governmental and international organisations) criticised the Union for letting its standards slip. Yet the problem all too often came down to numbers – and their reliability. A regulatory superpower like the EU is only as strong as its knowledge base, and the EU’s statistical picture of the migration flows remains very partial – leaving it dependent on other actors, who may exploit this weakness to promote their own agenda.
Reports & books by Annelies Pauwels
Chapter for Handbook on Terrorism Prevention and Preparedness (Ed. Alex P. Schmid), 2021
Lone-actor terrorism is an emerging phenomenon that challenges Western law enforcement agencies. ... more Lone-actor terrorism is an emerging phenomenon that challenges Western law enforcement agencies. This chapter adds to previous research on the prevention and detection of attacks by single terrorists and does so by focusing on limiting their access to weapons. It analyses the weapons that have been most commonly used by lone offenders in Western Europe over the last twenty years: firearms, knives, explosive and incendiary devices. For each of these weapon types a case study of a recent lone-actor attack is analyzed. The chapter concludes that downstream preventive measures aimed at curbing access to weapons and practical training opportunities can be useful. They can direct lone actor terrorists to more readily available weapons, reducing the lethality of their attacks. The research presents recommendations aimed at further restraining access to weapons and limiting online and on-hands training in the use or manufacturing of weapons. Lone-actor terrorism will most probably continue to exist and possibly rise, as it is a direct response to increasing pressure from law enforcement and is actively promoted by terrorist strategists. While a hundred percent safety from lone-actor attacks is probably unattainable, it is possible to diminish their ability to successfully carry out an attack and limit their lethality.
Flemish Peace Institute, 2020
In opdracht van het Agentschap Binnenlands Bestuur van de Vlaamse overheid evalueerde het Vlaams ... more In opdracht van het Agentschap Binnenlands Bestuur van de Vlaamse overheid evalueerde het Vlaams Vredesinstituut het Vlaams radicaliseringsbeled. Naast een brede en transversale analyse van de centrale doelstellingen en beleidskeuzes van het Vlaams actieplan ter preventie van gewelddadige radicalisering, bevat dit rapport ook verdiepende evaluaties van diverse acties binnen specifieke beleidsdomeinen in het actieplan, in het bijzonder de lokale aanpak, het onderwijs en de jeugd(welzijns)sector.
Chapter in Transnational Security Cooperation in the Mediterranean (Edited by R. Mason), Palgrave, 2020., 2020
The EU is redefining its position as a regional security actor. This is reflected in the greater ... more The EU is redefining its position as a regional security actor. This is reflected in the greater pragmatism it has introduced in its counterterrorism (CT) cooperation with the MENA region due to its strategic importance and geographic proximity. Under pressure by growing security involvement by third party state and non-state actors in its neighborhood, the EU has adopted greater flexibility in terms of cooperation partners and in the promotion of its values and norms. This chapter will analyze whether a pragmatic approach to security partnerships with MENA countries is useful and to what extent. In particular, it will focus on two recent EU proposals aimed at speeding up judicial and law enforcement cooperation with competent authorities within MENA countries. The chapter argues that, in doing so, the EU skips a crucial bricklaying phase aimed at constructing and reforming CT-relevant institutions and structures in the region, essential to make more advanced cooperation possible.
EuroMeSCo Joint Policy Study, 2017, Mar 2017
This EuroMeSCo Joint Policy Study analyses the selected cases of some “destination countries” (Ge... more This EuroMeSCo Joint Policy Study analyses the selected cases of some “destination countries” (Germany and Sweden), of some “transit route member states” (Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia), and the atypical case of a country that was both transit and destination (Austria). The countries were selected on the basis of the experiences of the 2015 mass immigration, i.e. the most “popular” destinations and the transits along the Western Balkan route, which has carried the greatest refugee flow to the European Union in 2015-2016.
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Policy briefs by Annelies Pauwels
Ondanks de inzet vanuit de Vlaamse en federale overheden om de LIVC R te professionaliseren en verankeren, verhinderen enkele drempels het casusoverleg om zich tot een duurzaam, gedragen en performant overlegplatform te kunnen ontwikkelen. Deze nota bespreekt vier aandachtspunten en uitdagingen voor de toekomst:
• een beperkt draagvlak voor het casusoverleg bij sociale partners;
• de steeds evoluerende context van gewelddadig extremisme;
• de nood aan evaluatie van de (werking van de) LIVC R;
• de nood aan structurele verduurzaming van de LIVC R en overdracht van opgedane kennis.
There is much literature on radicalisation and how to prevent or counter it yet, in practice, attempts to set up a whole-of-society approach may be quite distant from that theory. The Flemish Peace Institute’s evaluation of the Flemish action plan helps to bridge this distance by focusing on four crucial components: conceptual framework and vision, multi-stakeholder engagement, flexibility in response to an evolving security context and evaluation.
This paper explores whether measures to deal with previous right-wing extremist expressions are fit to counter current manifestations of right-wing extremism. It describes the modern (violent) right-wing extremist scene and how it has evolved from past manifestations. It also highlights a number of promising practices from previous programmes targeting right-wing violence. Several core concepts of these approaches remain highly valuable today. However, a more diverse “at-risk” group, increasing internationalisation and online presence demand for supplementary measures and a rethink of some aspects.
Reports & books by Annelies Pauwels
Ondanks de inzet vanuit de Vlaamse en federale overheden om de LIVC R te professionaliseren en verankeren, verhinderen enkele drempels het casusoverleg om zich tot een duurzaam, gedragen en performant overlegplatform te kunnen ontwikkelen. Deze nota bespreekt vier aandachtspunten en uitdagingen voor de toekomst:
• een beperkt draagvlak voor het casusoverleg bij sociale partners;
• de steeds evoluerende context van gewelddadig extremisme;
• de nood aan evaluatie van de (werking van de) LIVC R;
• de nood aan structurele verduurzaming van de LIVC R en overdracht van opgedane kennis.
There is much literature on radicalisation and how to prevent or counter it yet, in practice, attempts to set up a whole-of-society approach may be quite distant from that theory. The Flemish Peace Institute’s evaluation of the Flemish action plan helps to bridge this distance by focusing on four crucial components: conceptual framework and vision, multi-stakeholder engagement, flexibility in response to an evolving security context and evaluation.
This paper explores whether measures to deal with previous right-wing extremist expressions are fit to counter current manifestations of right-wing extremism. It describes the modern (violent) right-wing extremist scene and how it has evolved from past manifestations. It also highlights a number of promising practices from previous programmes targeting right-wing violence. Several core concepts of these approaches remain highly valuable today. However, a more diverse “at-risk” group, increasing internationalisation and online presence demand for supplementary measures and a rethink of some aspects.
The institutional context in which the European Union conducts its external action – starting with the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) – is complex, sometimes unclear, and highly fragmented. Moreover, the large number of players and formats for shaping, making and implementing decisions hardly facilitates a thorough understanding of the modus operandi of the Union in this domain.
This volume is intended to offer interested readers a portrait of how the European Union conducts diplomacy – as well as defence, development and other related policies. It offers an overview of how the EU has evolved as a foreign policy actor especially since the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, and includes analyses of the main players in the EU system and their interplay, conveying both past dynamics and present trends.
The book examines both the broader institutional context (European Commission, Parliament and Council) and the specific CFSP/CSDP set-up (the ‘multi-hatted’ High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the European External Action Service and other bodies) with a view to highlighting the challenges and opportunities they create for Europe’s foreign policy. It also describes the policies that underpin the EU’s external action, as well as covering the geographical dimension and analysing the Union’s array of ‘strategic partnerships’ throughout the world.
European terrorist networks are torn between protecting their own members against the virus and using the pandemic to further their goals. This causes immediate and long-term effects on terrorism in Europe.