RESUMO O artigo discute a importância da conexão entre políticas industriais e comerciais no atua... more RESUMO O artigo discute a importância da conexão entre políticas industriais e comerciais no atual processo de globalização da economia mundial. Apesar de inspiradas na recente liberalização do comércio brasileiro, todas as questões analisadas aqui são basicamente teóricas. O autor discute como a conexão entre políticas industriais e comerciais é analisada nas teorias do comércio internacional, bem como como esta oferece argumentos teóricos favoráveis às políticas industriais.
Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting], 2018
Apesar da popularidade do acrônimo BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul), esta sig... more Apesar da popularidade do acrônimo BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul), esta sigla não seria realmente justificada se se considerassem as diferenças históricas, econômicas e culturais entre os países. No entanto, após a criação do acrônimo BRIC (a África do Sul foi incluída posteriormente), seus governos vêm se engajando em negociações políticas e econômicas como se fossem um bloco regional. Isso sugere que os BRICS tornaram-se uma força mais poderosa que um simples acrônimo. O objetivo do trabalho é comparar o desempenho econômico dos BRICS no período 1980-2013, utilizando dados de estatísticas descritivas e evidências econométricas, com base em estimativas da Lei de Thirlwall, para avaliar se (e, em caso afirmativo, em que intensidade) as economias estão em processo de catching up. Nosso pressuposto básico é que a forma pela qual cada economia se engaja no comércio internacional e nos fluxos globais de capital influencia decisivamente o seu desempenho econômico no longo prazo. Embora nossos resultados não permitam extrair uma conclusão de se a Rússia está ou não em processo de catching up, eles confirmam que a China e a Índia se encontram no processo de catching up, enquanto o Brasil e a África do Sul encontram-se em uma trajetória de falling behind. Palavras-Chave: Mudança estrutural; desenvolvimento econômico; catching up; falling behind; BRICS ABSTRACT: Despite its popularity, the acronym BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) would not be justified if one considers the historical, economic and cultural differences among the countries in the group. However, after the acronym was created in 2001 as BRIC (South Africa was included later) by the Goldman Sachs economist, Jim O' Neill, the governments of the BRICS have engaged in international and political negotiations in the recent years as if they were an economic regional group. This strongly suggests that actually the BRICS became more than a simple acronym. Thus, our aim in this paper is to compare the economic performance of the BRICS between 1980 and 2013, using descriptive statistical indicators and econometric evidence based on estimates of Thirlwall's Law. Thirlwall's equations, expressed by the "strong" and "weak" versions, have become classical and powerful indicators to evaluate if a country is in a catching up or a falling behind long-term path. Our basic assumption is that the way in which each country engages in international trade and global capital flows matters for influencing its long-term economic performance.. Though our results cannot confirm Russia's long-term growth trajectory, they do confirm that China and India have shown a rapid catching up path, while Brazil and South Africa have entered into a falling behind path over the period analyzed.
Page 1. 1 Infra-Estrutura, Diversificação das Exportações e Redução do Custo-Brasil: Limites e ... more Page 1. 1 Infra-Estrutura, Diversificação das Exportações e Redução do Custo-Brasil: Limites e Possibilidades* ERIKSOM TEIXEIRA LIMA ANDRÉ LUIZ NASSIF MÁRIO CORDEIRO DE CARVALHO JR.** RESUMO O artigo ...
ABSTRACT: This paper is predominantly analytical. Concerning the macroeconomic regime, we propose... more ABSTRACT: This paper is predominantly analytical. Concerning the macroeconomic regime, we propose more consistency between monetary, fiscal, exchange rate and wage policies. Such consistency is to provide sustainable long-term economic growth with structural change. Also, it is to make it feasible to not only maintain average real interest rates below the average real return rates on capital, but also competitive real exchange rates (i.e., marginal undervalued real exchange rates) and real wages that increase in step with productivity growth. This will help guarantee sustainable economic growth. As for industrial policy, theoretical and empirical evidence suggests the need to pursue strategies that diversify production, especially within the manufacturing sector as well as within tradable segments of the service sector. Although theoretical arguments are favorable to strategies that diversify production in countries that did not manage to catch up with developed countries, such stra...
This paper analyses the main effects of the Brazilian trade liberalization on the technical effic... more This paper analyses the main effects of the Brazilian trade liberalization on the technical efficiency of the manufacturing industry and the trade pattern. The principal empirical findings suggest the following results for the 1990's: i) expressive gains in labor productivity and reduction of the average real costs for most sectors of the manufacturing industry between 1988 and 1998; ii) the trade pattern were mostly driven by import changes; iii) on average, industries which showed the greatest gains in technical efficiency did not translated them into competitiveness gains in the global markets; and iv) on average, there were dynamic efficiency losses once, on the first hand, major gains in international competitiveness were located in the traditional sectors and, on the other hand, industries that made the major investments in Research and Development (R & D) were the same that had significant sectoral trade deficits throughout the 1990's.
This paper compares the impacts of the global economic crisis on the Brazilian and Indian economi... more This paper compares the impacts of the global economic crisis on the Brazilian and Indian economies, as well as the economic policies that were immediately implemented to reduce the negative effects on credit and economic growth. The article shows that exports and the real domestic product were adversely affected in both countries. However, three reasons explain why India was much less affected than Brazil and why it figures as one of the few countries in the world economy that escaped the recession in 2009: i) due to low external financial integration, the Reserve Bank of India had more room to moderate negative expectations than other Central Banks in emerging countries, including Brazil; ii) the immediate decision of the Reserve Bank of India, even with inflation on the rise, to reduce the basic interest rate as soon as the US financial crisis spread across the global economy, after September 2008; and iii) the implementation of a fiscal package in which government demand was pro...
This paper intends to analyze the arguments for the implementation of industrial policies under t... more This paper intends to analyze the arguments for the implementation of industrial policies under the current scenario of trade liberalization process consolidation. The paper is divided in two bloc of sections: in the first one (Sections 2 and 3), the author analyses the theoretical issues related to the trade liberalization, mainly those related to the objectives and expected benefits; in the second bloc of sections (Sections 4 and 5), it is showed that in an imperfect competition world and in the presence of static and dynamic positive externalities, there are some cases in which seems to justify the government intervention in favor of specific industries, especially those with great potencial of technological spillovers through the economic system. In spite of not aiming at analysing the Brazilian economy directly, this paper suggests some instruments of industrial policy - especially of sectoral kind - which may be usefull to support the Brazilian economic development.
One of the most controversial topics in recent economic literature concerns the determinants of t... more One of the most controversial topics in recent economic literature concerns the determinants of the real exchange rate. In spite of the lack of theoretical consensus on how to determine the real exchange rate, empirical literature has shown that exchange rate overvaluation has negative effects on long-term economic growth. This paper theoretically discusses and empirically analyses these determining factors of the real exchange rate in Brazil in the 2000s. The Brazilian economy has shown a tendency of real overvaluation of its currency since high inflation was controlled in the mid-1990s. This tendency has only been interrupted by occasional internal or external shocks. Our empirical study is a modified version of the econometric model proposed by Razin and Collins (1999). Like these authors, our theoretical and empirical models break down the determining factors of the actual real exchange rate into long-term and short-term factors. However, while Razin and Collins (1999) assume th...
Este ensaio-resenha analisa as teses lancadaspor Laura Carvalho, em seu livro Valsa brasileira: d... more Este ensaio-resenha analisa as teses lancadaspor Laura Carvalho, em seu livro Valsa brasileira: do boom ao caos economico, sobre as politicas economicas que levaram ao “boom” no governo de Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (2003-2010) e a desaceleracao e posterior “caos” nos governos de Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016) e Michel Temer (2016-2018). A critica dirige-se, sobretudo, a tese principal da autora segundo a qual o modelo de crescimento da economia brasileira entre 2006-2010, baseado no boom de consumo das familias, decorrente da melhora da distribuicao de renda, e no papel dos investimentos publicos como motor da reativacao dos investimentos privados, teria sido bem-sucedido caso o governo Dilma nao o tivesse abandonado, substituindo-o por uma politica fiscal expansionista ancorada em desoneracoes tributarias. O ensaio mostra que, alem da referida tese principal nao ter suporte empirico, tal modelo nao seria sustentavel, devido as elevadas taxas de juros reais, a sobrevalorizacao da moeda ...
ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Emerging Markets (Topic), 2016
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have gradually become more than an acro... more The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have gradually become more than an acronym as their governments have been engaging in international and political negotiations as if they were a regional economic group. The main goal of this paper is to compare the structural change of the BRICS using econometric evidence based on estimates of Thirlwall’s law for the period 1995-2013. Thirlwall’s equations have become powerful indicators to evaluate whether a country is in a catching-up or falling-behind long-term path. Our basic assumption is that the way in which each country engages in international trade and global capital flows affects, positively or negatively, structural change and the catch-up trajectory. Though our results cannot confirm Russia’s long-term growth trajectory, they do confirm that over the period analysed China and India have shown a rapid catching up path, while Brazil and South Africa have entered into a falling behind path. JEL: 011; 014; 019; 047;...
This paper shows an econometric estimation for Brazil’s long-term “optimal” real exchange rate co... more This paper shows an econometric estimation for Brazil’s long-term “optimal” real exchange rate covering the 1999-2015 period. The long-term “optimal” real exchange rate is understood as that which is able to efficiently reallocate production resources towards industries with a high capacity to generate and spillover productivity gains to the economy as a whole. In doing so, economic development, everything else being equal, is accelerated and sustained. Differently from the conventional models, we present a Structuralist-Keynesian model to theoretically and empirically demonstrate that the variables in the path of the long-term real exchange rate, as well as its misalignment from the “optimal” level that is appropriate for economic development, are, all, simultaneously, explained by both structural variables and those associated with the short-term economic policy. We estimate that, after having crossed a long trend of significant real appreciation since the end of 2005, the real ex...
O Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) tem exercido historicamente um pap... more O Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) tem exercido historicamente um papel central no processo de industrialização e desenvolvimento econômico no Brasil, desde sua criação, em 1952. Ao longo dessa trajetória, seu papel, para além da óbvia atuação como banco de fomento público (por meio da qual sempre supriu a crônica, e ainda persistente, “falha de mercado” do mercado de capitais brasileiro), estendeu-se e segue estendendo-se à articulação com as demais instituições encarregadas de formular e executar a política industrial brasileira. Em particular, o BNDES sempre desempenhou papel ativo no desenvolvimento dos setores industriais nascentes no Brasil, em praticamente todas as categorias de uso (bens de capital, bens intermediários, bens de consumo duráveis e não-duráveis), além da infra-estrutura.
RESUMO O artigo discute a importância da conexão entre políticas industriais e comerciais no atua... more RESUMO O artigo discute a importância da conexão entre políticas industriais e comerciais no atual processo de globalização da economia mundial. Apesar de inspiradas na recente liberalização do comércio brasileiro, todas as questões analisadas aqui são basicamente teóricas. O autor discute como a conexão entre políticas industriais e comerciais é analisada nas teorias do comércio internacional, bem como como esta oferece argumentos teóricos favoráveis às políticas industriais.
Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting], 2018
Apesar da popularidade do acrônimo BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul), esta sig... more Apesar da popularidade do acrônimo BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul), esta sigla não seria realmente justificada se se considerassem as diferenças históricas, econômicas e culturais entre os países. No entanto, após a criação do acrônimo BRIC (a África do Sul foi incluída posteriormente), seus governos vêm se engajando em negociações políticas e econômicas como se fossem um bloco regional. Isso sugere que os BRICS tornaram-se uma força mais poderosa que um simples acrônimo. O objetivo do trabalho é comparar o desempenho econômico dos BRICS no período 1980-2013, utilizando dados de estatísticas descritivas e evidências econométricas, com base em estimativas da Lei de Thirlwall, para avaliar se (e, em caso afirmativo, em que intensidade) as economias estão em processo de catching up. Nosso pressuposto básico é que a forma pela qual cada economia se engaja no comércio internacional e nos fluxos globais de capital influencia decisivamente o seu desempenho econômico no longo prazo. Embora nossos resultados não permitam extrair uma conclusão de se a Rússia está ou não em processo de catching up, eles confirmam que a China e a Índia se encontram no processo de catching up, enquanto o Brasil e a África do Sul encontram-se em uma trajetória de falling behind. Palavras-Chave: Mudança estrutural; desenvolvimento econômico; catching up; falling behind; BRICS ABSTRACT: Despite its popularity, the acronym BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) would not be justified if one considers the historical, economic and cultural differences among the countries in the group. However, after the acronym was created in 2001 as BRIC (South Africa was included later) by the Goldman Sachs economist, Jim O' Neill, the governments of the BRICS have engaged in international and political negotiations in the recent years as if they were an economic regional group. This strongly suggests that actually the BRICS became more than a simple acronym. Thus, our aim in this paper is to compare the economic performance of the BRICS between 1980 and 2013, using descriptive statistical indicators and econometric evidence based on estimates of Thirlwall's Law. Thirlwall's equations, expressed by the "strong" and "weak" versions, have become classical and powerful indicators to evaluate if a country is in a catching up or a falling behind long-term path. Our basic assumption is that the way in which each country engages in international trade and global capital flows matters for influencing its long-term economic performance.. Though our results cannot confirm Russia's long-term growth trajectory, they do confirm that China and India have shown a rapid catching up path, while Brazil and South Africa have entered into a falling behind path over the period analyzed.
Page 1. 1 Infra-Estrutura, Diversificação das Exportações e Redução do Custo-Brasil: Limites e ... more Page 1. 1 Infra-Estrutura, Diversificação das Exportações e Redução do Custo-Brasil: Limites e Possibilidades* ERIKSOM TEIXEIRA LIMA ANDRÉ LUIZ NASSIF MÁRIO CORDEIRO DE CARVALHO JR.** RESUMO O artigo ...
ABSTRACT: This paper is predominantly analytical. Concerning the macroeconomic regime, we propose... more ABSTRACT: This paper is predominantly analytical. Concerning the macroeconomic regime, we propose more consistency between monetary, fiscal, exchange rate and wage policies. Such consistency is to provide sustainable long-term economic growth with structural change. Also, it is to make it feasible to not only maintain average real interest rates below the average real return rates on capital, but also competitive real exchange rates (i.e., marginal undervalued real exchange rates) and real wages that increase in step with productivity growth. This will help guarantee sustainable economic growth. As for industrial policy, theoretical and empirical evidence suggests the need to pursue strategies that diversify production, especially within the manufacturing sector as well as within tradable segments of the service sector. Although theoretical arguments are favorable to strategies that diversify production in countries that did not manage to catch up with developed countries, such stra...
This paper analyses the main effects of the Brazilian trade liberalization on the technical effic... more This paper analyses the main effects of the Brazilian trade liberalization on the technical efficiency of the manufacturing industry and the trade pattern. The principal empirical findings suggest the following results for the 1990's: i) expressive gains in labor productivity and reduction of the average real costs for most sectors of the manufacturing industry between 1988 and 1998; ii) the trade pattern were mostly driven by import changes; iii) on average, industries which showed the greatest gains in technical efficiency did not translated them into competitiveness gains in the global markets; and iv) on average, there were dynamic efficiency losses once, on the first hand, major gains in international competitiveness were located in the traditional sectors and, on the other hand, industries that made the major investments in Research and Development (R & D) were the same that had significant sectoral trade deficits throughout the 1990's.
This paper compares the impacts of the global economic crisis on the Brazilian and Indian economi... more This paper compares the impacts of the global economic crisis on the Brazilian and Indian economies, as well as the economic policies that were immediately implemented to reduce the negative effects on credit and economic growth. The article shows that exports and the real domestic product were adversely affected in both countries. However, three reasons explain why India was much less affected than Brazil and why it figures as one of the few countries in the world economy that escaped the recession in 2009: i) due to low external financial integration, the Reserve Bank of India had more room to moderate negative expectations than other Central Banks in emerging countries, including Brazil; ii) the immediate decision of the Reserve Bank of India, even with inflation on the rise, to reduce the basic interest rate as soon as the US financial crisis spread across the global economy, after September 2008; and iii) the implementation of a fiscal package in which government demand was pro...
This paper intends to analyze the arguments for the implementation of industrial policies under t... more This paper intends to analyze the arguments for the implementation of industrial policies under the current scenario of trade liberalization process consolidation. The paper is divided in two bloc of sections: in the first one (Sections 2 and 3), the author analyses the theoretical issues related to the trade liberalization, mainly those related to the objectives and expected benefits; in the second bloc of sections (Sections 4 and 5), it is showed that in an imperfect competition world and in the presence of static and dynamic positive externalities, there are some cases in which seems to justify the government intervention in favor of specific industries, especially those with great potencial of technological spillovers through the economic system. In spite of not aiming at analysing the Brazilian economy directly, this paper suggests some instruments of industrial policy - especially of sectoral kind - which may be usefull to support the Brazilian economic development.
One of the most controversial topics in recent economic literature concerns the determinants of t... more One of the most controversial topics in recent economic literature concerns the determinants of the real exchange rate. In spite of the lack of theoretical consensus on how to determine the real exchange rate, empirical literature has shown that exchange rate overvaluation has negative effects on long-term economic growth. This paper theoretically discusses and empirically analyses these determining factors of the real exchange rate in Brazil in the 2000s. The Brazilian economy has shown a tendency of real overvaluation of its currency since high inflation was controlled in the mid-1990s. This tendency has only been interrupted by occasional internal or external shocks. Our empirical study is a modified version of the econometric model proposed by Razin and Collins (1999). Like these authors, our theoretical and empirical models break down the determining factors of the actual real exchange rate into long-term and short-term factors. However, while Razin and Collins (1999) assume th...
Este ensaio-resenha analisa as teses lancadaspor Laura Carvalho, em seu livro Valsa brasileira: d... more Este ensaio-resenha analisa as teses lancadaspor Laura Carvalho, em seu livro Valsa brasileira: do boom ao caos economico, sobre as politicas economicas que levaram ao “boom” no governo de Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (2003-2010) e a desaceleracao e posterior “caos” nos governos de Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016) e Michel Temer (2016-2018). A critica dirige-se, sobretudo, a tese principal da autora segundo a qual o modelo de crescimento da economia brasileira entre 2006-2010, baseado no boom de consumo das familias, decorrente da melhora da distribuicao de renda, e no papel dos investimentos publicos como motor da reativacao dos investimentos privados, teria sido bem-sucedido caso o governo Dilma nao o tivesse abandonado, substituindo-o por uma politica fiscal expansionista ancorada em desoneracoes tributarias. O ensaio mostra que, alem da referida tese principal nao ter suporte empirico, tal modelo nao seria sustentavel, devido as elevadas taxas de juros reais, a sobrevalorizacao da moeda ...
ERN: Open Macroeconomics in Emerging Markets (Topic), 2016
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have gradually become more than an acro... more The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have gradually become more than an acronym as their governments have been engaging in international and political negotiations as if they were a regional economic group. The main goal of this paper is to compare the structural change of the BRICS using econometric evidence based on estimates of Thirlwall’s law for the period 1995-2013. Thirlwall’s equations have become powerful indicators to evaluate whether a country is in a catching-up or falling-behind long-term path. Our basic assumption is that the way in which each country engages in international trade and global capital flows affects, positively or negatively, structural change and the catch-up trajectory. Though our results cannot confirm Russia’s long-term growth trajectory, they do confirm that over the period analysed China and India have shown a rapid catching up path, while Brazil and South Africa have entered into a falling behind path. JEL: 011; 014; 019; 047;...
This paper shows an econometric estimation for Brazil’s long-term “optimal” real exchange rate co... more This paper shows an econometric estimation for Brazil’s long-term “optimal” real exchange rate covering the 1999-2015 period. The long-term “optimal” real exchange rate is understood as that which is able to efficiently reallocate production resources towards industries with a high capacity to generate and spillover productivity gains to the economy as a whole. In doing so, economic development, everything else being equal, is accelerated and sustained. Differently from the conventional models, we present a Structuralist-Keynesian model to theoretically and empirically demonstrate that the variables in the path of the long-term real exchange rate, as well as its misalignment from the “optimal” level that is appropriate for economic development, are, all, simultaneously, explained by both structural variables and those associated with the short-term economic policy. We estimate that, after having crossed a long trend of significant real appreciation since the end of 2005, the real ex...
O Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) tem exercido historicamente um pap... more O Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) tem exercido historicamente um papel central no processo de industrialização e desenvolvimento econômico no Brasil, desde sua criação, em 1952. Ao longo dessa trajetória, seu papel, para além da óbvia atuação como banco de fomento público (por meio da qual sempre supriu a crônica, e ainda persistente, “falha de mercado” do mercado de capitais brasileiro), estendeu-se e segue estendendo-se à articulação com as demais instituições encarregadas de formular e executar a política industrial brasileira. Em particular, o BNDES sempre desempenhou papel ativo no desenvolvimento dos setores industriais nascentes no Brasil, em praticamente todas as categorias de uso (bens de capital, bens intermediários, bens de consumo duráveis e não-duráveis), além da infra-estrutura.
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