DATOS HISTÓRICOS DE VE

AÑO/PRODUCTO A B C D E F
2008 13,260 26,500 28,294 22,748 23,885 18,973
2009 18,222 19,817 23,994 24,935 21,505 24,692
2010 18,626 22,574 23,852 22,837 23,867 21,054
2011 15,425 22,818 18,294 21,589 17,860 21,077
2012 15,478 21,246 19,506 21,922 22,300 17,359
2013 16,572 21,485 18,007 22,874 20,983 19,475
2014 13,553 22,949 19,714 19,670 21,788 17,513
2015 17,409 17,566 22,857 21,335 21,947 22,487
2016 17,276 20,304 19,854 24,209 23,323 22,670
2017 18,255 22,582 22,852 21,733 19,912 23,562
2018 16,821 20,372 18,691 23,250 23,883 20,052
2019 18,420 21,530 19,008 23,120 22,800 21,942
*Los valores propuestos para 2019 se fijaron sin considerar método alguno de proyección, por lo que
proyección, y hacer la comparación.
 DATOS HISTÓRICOS DE VENTAS
G H I J K L M
28,796 17,547 25,990 20,243 22,831 19,935 20,503
18,103 19,843 24,968 23,553 20,963 19,667 22,150
24,665 22,054 21,913 21,346 18,059 17,117 20,209
22,059 19,398 24,910 23,629 24,701 19,189 17,781
22,295 19,536 19,028 22,146 20,914 22,739 21,475
18,700 23,079 22,788 18,358 24,603 22,091 22,281
22,780 24,011 19,533 17,586 19,184 19,249 24,082
23,383 24,346 20,462 17,312 22,355 21,337 22,218
21,014 17,808 23,624 23,966 22,712 17,218 21,922
24,976 19,873 22,932 24,645 19,595 19,249 21,192
19,774 21,514 22,054 19,812 20,021 24,687 23,146
20,954 22,960 23,000 20,519 20,700 24,312 23,600
o de proyección, por lo que es conveniente recalcularlos, haciendo uso de los métodos de
n, y hacer la comparación.
 ARITMETICO
Variación Variación Variación Variación
AÑO/PRODUCTO Periodo F Variación real J M
porcentual real porcentual real
2008 1 18,973 20,243 20,503
2009 2 24,692 5,719 0.30143 23,553 3,310 0.16351 22,150 1,647
2010 3 21,054 (3,638) -0.14734 21,346 (2,207) -0.09370 20,209 (1,941)
2011 4 21,077 23 0.00109 23,629 2,283 0.10695 17,781 (2,428)
2012 5 17,359 (3,718) -0.17640 22,146 (1,483) -0.06276 21,475 3,694
2013 6 19,475 2,116 0.12190 18,358 (3,788) -0.17105 22,281 806
2014 7 17,513 (1,962) -0.10074 17,586 (772) -0.04205 24,082 1,801
2015 8 22,487 4,974 0.28402 17,312 (274) -0.01558 22,218 (1,864)
2016 9 22,670 183 0.00814 23,966 6,654 0.38436 21,922 (296)
2017 10 23,562 892 0.03935 24,645 679 0.02833 21,192 (730)
2018 11 20,052 (3,510) -0.14897 19,812 (4,833) -0.19610 23,146 1,954
66 228,914 0.18247 232,596 0.10191 236,959
Promedio 0.01824707662 0.01019050239 0.01668484654
a= 20,052 19,812 23,146
y = a+bx
b= 20,052 20,418 19,812 20,014 23,146 23,532

PROYECCION
AÑO/PRODUCTO Periodo F J M
2019 12 20,418 20,014 23,532
2020 13 20,790 20,218 23,925
2021 14 21,170 20,424 24,324
2022 15 21,556 20,632 24,730
2023 16 21,949 20,842 25,142
2024 17 22,350 21,055 25,562
Variación
porcentual

0.08033
-0.08763
-0.12014
0.20775
0.03753
0.08083
-0.07740
-0.01332
-0.03330
0.09220
0.16685
Que es el promedio de los incrementos de
cada año, o sea los incrementales de Q
 N= 11 METODO ESTADISTICO REGRESION LINEAL, S - M
AÑO/PRODUCTO Vtas F Pronostico F Vtas J Pronostico J Vtas M
X Y Y Y
2008 1 18,973 20,415.05 20,243 21,469 20,503
2009 2 24,692 20,494.11 23,553 21,404 22,150
2010 3 21,054 20,573.17 21,346 21,339 20,209
2011 4 21,077 20,652.24 23,629 21,275 17,781
2012 5 17,359 20,731.30 22,146 21,210 21,475
2013 6 19,475 20,810.36 18,358 21,145 22,281
2014 7 17,513 20,889.43 17,586 21,080 24,082
2015 8 22,487 20,968.49 17,312 21,016 22,218
2016 9 22,670 21,047.55 23,966 20,951 21,922
2017 10 23,562 21,126.62 24,645 20,886 21,192
2018 11 20,052 21,205.68 19,812 20,821 23,146

66 228,914 232,596 236,959

n= 11.00 n= 11.00 n=
DESVIACION DAM = 1,434.19 DAM = 2,221.86 DAM =
ERROR MEDIO EMC = 3,379,065 EMC = 6,406,764 EMC =
PORCENTAJE PEMA = 0.07 PEMA = 0.11 PEMA =
PRPOMEDIO M PME = -0.02 PME = -0.01 PME =

Pronostico
AÑO/PRODUCTO Pronostico F Pronostico J
2019 12 21,284.75 20,757
2020 13 21,363.81 20,692
2021 14 21,442.87 20,627
2022 15 21,521.94 20,562
2023 16 21,601.00 20,498
2024 17 21,680.06 20,433
REGRESION LINEAL, S - MINIMOS CUADRADOS
Pronostico M F J M y = mx +
xˆ2 x*y x*y x*y
19,887 1 18,973 20,243 20,503 b=
19,651 4 49,384 47,106 44,300 m=
19,414 9 63,162 64,038 60,627
19,178 16 84,308 94,516 71,124 F
18,941 25 86,795 110,730 107,375
18,705 36 116,850 110,148 133,686
18,469 49 122,591 123,102 168,574
18,232 64 179,896 138,496 177,744
17,996 81 204,030 215,694 197,298
17,759 100 235,620 246,450 211,920
17,523 121 220,572 217,932 254,606

205,755 506 1,382,181 1,388,455 1,447,757

11.00
3,090.66
12,238,698
0.14
0.13

Pronostico M
17,287
17,050
16,814
16,578
16,341
16,105
 PRODUCTO B
(error
y = mx + b et = xt - ẋt absoluto) Abs
(et)
F J M
20,335.98 21,533.51 20,123.38 - 14.42 14.42
79.06 - 64.74 236.39 41.98 41.98
480.83 480.83
Y= -319,92 x + 23572,24 424.76 424.76
J Y= -502,21 x + 24460,07 - 3,372.30 3,372.30
M Y= -231,25 X + 23800,71 - 1,335.36 1,335.36
- 3,376.43 3,376.43
1,518.51 1,518.51
1,622.45 1,622.45
2,435.38 2,435.38
- 1,153.68 1,153.68

- 2,728.29 15,776.10
PRODUCTO B PRODUCTO C
(error
et 2 Abs (et)/y et/YT et = xt - ẋt absoluto) Abs et 2 Abs (et)/y
(et)
208 0.00 - 0.00 - 1,225.77 1,225.77 1,502,519 0.06
1,762 0.00 0.00 2,148.96 2,148.96 4,618,045 0.09
231,195 0.02 0.02 6.70 6.70 45 0.00
180,424 0.02 0.02 2,354.44 2,354.44 5,543,371 0.10
11,372,407 0.19 - 0.19 936.17 936.17 876,419 0.04
1,783,196 0.07 - 0.07 - 2,787.09 2,787.09 7,767,876 0.15
11,400,261 0.19 - 0.19 - 3,494.35 3,494.35 12,210,514 0.20
2,305,870 0.07 0.07 - 3,703.62 3,703.62 13,716,788 0.21
2,632,329 0.07 0.07 3,015.12 3,015.12 9,090,938 0.13
5,931,085 0.10 0.10 3,758.85 3,758.85 14,128,987 0.15
1,330,982 0.06 - 0.06 - 1,009.41 1,009.41 1,018,907 0.05

37,169,719.10 0.80 - 0.23 0.00 24,440.49 70,474,407 1.19

 PRODUCTO G
(error de G) (error absoluto (error de G)
et/YT Abs (et)/y et/YT
et = xt - ẋt B) Abs (et) et 2

- 0.06 616.01 616.01 379,467 0.03 0.03

0.09 2,499.40 2,499.40 6,247,000 0.11 0.11
0.00 794.79 794.79 631,693 0.04 0.04
0.10 - 1,396.82 1,396.82 1,951,101 0.08 - 0.08
0.04 2,533.57 2,533.57 6,418,991 0.12 0.12
- 0.15 3,575.96 3,575.96 12,787,516 0.16 0.16
- 0.20 5,613.35 5,613.35 31,509,749 0.23 0.23
- 0.21 3,985.75 3,985.75 15,886,167 0.18 0.18
0.13 3,926.14 3,926.14 15,414,547 0.18 0.18
0.15 3,432.53 3,432.53 11,782,243 0.16 0.16
- 0.05 5,622.92 5,622.92 31,617,209 0.24 0.24

- 0.16 31,204 33,997 134,625,683 1.54 1.38

 METODO HOLT - SUAV EXPONENCIAL
AÑO/PRODUCTO Vtas F Pronostico Ft Vtas J Pronostico Ft Vtas M
k Y Y Y
2008 1 18,973 20,243 - 20,503
2009 2 24,692 24,692 23,553 23,553 22,150
2010 3 21,054 30,411 21,346 26,863 20,209
2011 4 21,077 21,974 23,629 21,827 17,781
2012 5 17,359 21,537 22,146 22,531 21,475
2013 6 19,475 15,676 18,358 21,584 22,281
2014 7 17,513 19,740 17,586 12,694 24,082
2015 8 22,487 16,636 17,312 20,372 22,218
2016 9 22,670 24,611 23,966 15,352 21,922
2017 10 23,562 23,798 24,645 28,075 21,192
2018 11 20,052 24,569 19,812 25,069 23,146
2019 12 18,743 25,584
PRONOSTICO

2020 13 17,433 26,598

2021 14 16,124 27,612
2022 15 14,814 28,627
2023 16 13,505 29,641
2024 17 12,195 30,656
 CALCULO PRONOSTICO F Error de
Nivel Tendencia Pronostico Error de
Pronostico Ft estimado Lt estimada bt Ft pronostico abs (et)
Pronostico
cuadrado
- 18,973.00 5,719
23,553 24,692.00 5,719 24,692 - 0.00 -
26,863 21,054.00 920 30,411 - 93.6 8755.34 -
21,827 21,077.00 460 21,974 - 9.0 80.51 -
22,531 17,359.00 - 1,683 21,537 - 41.8 1745.66 -
21,584 19,475.00 265 15,676 38.0 1442.95 -
12,694 17,513.00 - 877 19,740 - 22.3 496.17 -
20,372 22,487.00 2,124 16,636 58.5 3423.27 -
15,352 22,670.00 1,128 24,611 - 19.4 376.65 -
28,075 23,562.00 1,007 23,798 - 2.4 5.59 -
25,069 20,052.00 - 1,309 24,569
23,899 18,743
24,652 17,433
25,405 16,124
26,159 14,814
26,912 13,505
27,665 12,195
α = 1.0000 16326.152 0.00
β = 0.5128
 CALCULO PRONOSTICO Error
J de
Nivel Tendencia Pronostico Error de
estimado Lt estimada bt Ft pronostico abs (et) M
Pronostico
cuadrado
20,243.00 3,310 20,503.00
23,553.00 3,310 23,553 - 0.00 - 22,150.00
21,346.00 481 26,863 - 55.2 3043.73 - 20,209.00
21,974.28 556 21,827 1.5 2.18 1,654.7 17,781.00
21,537.11 47 22,531 - 9.9 98.71 608.9 21,475.00
15,676.38 - 2,983 21,584 - 59.1 3489.93 2,681.6 22,281.00
19,740.49 631 12,694 70.5 4965.98 2,154.5 24,082.00
16,636.13 - 1,285 20,372 - 37.4 1395.42 675.9 22,218.00
24,610.74 3,464 15,352 92.6 8573.28 644.7 21,922.00
23,798.43 1,271 28,075 - 42.8 1828.65 846.6 21,192.00
24,569.18 1,014 25,069 - 5.0 25.01 4,757.2 23,146.00
25,584
26,598
27,612
28,627
29,641
30,656
23397.879 1402.41
 CALCULO PRONOSTICO M Error de
Tendencia Pronostico Error de
estimada bt Ft pronostico abs (et)
Pronostico
cuadrado
1,647
1,647 22,150 - 14.0 196.84 -
- 193 23,797 - 66.5 4427.57 -
- 1,339 20,016 - 40.5 1636.70 -
1,242 16,442 - 10.6 111.44 -
1,018 22,717 7.0 48.59 -
1,420 23,299 113.9 12969.75 -
- 264 25,502 18.5 340.90 -
- 281 21,954 65.7 4317.10 -
- 511 21,641 - 68.8 4737.16 -
753 20,681 - 19.2 369.92 -
23,899
24,652
25,405
26,159
26,912
27,665
28786.050 0.00
 PROYECCIÓN DE VENTAS PRODUCTO F PROYECCIÓN DE VENTAS PRODUCTO J
REGRESION METODO HOLT - REGRESION
MÉTODO ARITMETICO ARITMETICO
LINEAL SUAV EXP LINEAL
AÑO
2019 21,285 20,418 18,743 20,757 20,014
2020 21,364 20,790 17,433 17,050 20,218
2021 21,443 21,170 16,124 16,814 20,424
2022 21,522 21,556 14,814 16,578 20,632
2023 21,601 21,949 13,505 16,341 20,842
2024 21,680 22,350 12,195 16,105 21,055
128,894 128,234 92,814 103,644 123,185

AÑO 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PRODUCTO 1 2 3 4 5
F 18,973 24,692 21,054 21,077 17,359
J 20,243 23,553 21,346 23,629 22,146
M 20,503 22,150 20,209 17,781 21,475
TOTAL 59,719 70,395 62,609 62,487 60,980
Aumento/decremento F 5,719 - 3,638 23 - 3,718
Aumento/decremento J 3,310 - 2,207 2,283 - 1,483
Aumento/decremento M 1,647 - 1,941 - 2,428 3,694

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
DE VENTAS PRODUCTO
METODO J PROYECCIÓN DE VENTAS PRODUCTO M TOTAL
REGRESION REGRESION L REGRESION METODO HOLT -
HOLT - SUAV ARITMETICO ARITMETICO
LINEAL PONDERADA LINEAL SUAV EXP
EXP
25,584 17,287 23,532 23,899 59,328 63,964 68,225
26,598 17,050 23,925 24,652 55,464 64,933 68,683
27,612 16,814 24,324 25,405 55,071 65,918 69,141
28,627 16,578 24,730 26,159 54,677 66,918 69,600
29,641 16,341 25,142 26,912 54,283 67,934 70,058
30,656 16,105 25,562 27,665 53,890 68,967 70,516
168,717 100,174 147,215 154,692 332,713 398,633 416,223

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

6 7 8 9 10 11 12
19,475 17,513 22,487 22,670 23,562 20,052 21,285
18,358 17,586 17,312 23,966 24,645 19,812
22,281 24,082 22,218 21,922 21,192 23,146
60,114 59,181 62,017 68,558 69,399 63,010
2,116 - 1,962 4,974 183 892 - 3,510
- 3,788 - 772 - 274 6,654 679 - 4,833
806 1,801 - 1,864 - 296 - 730 1,954

6 7 8 9 10 11
 30000

25000

20000 R² = 0.011946673225334

15000

10000

5000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

2020 2021 2022 2023 Y= a b

13 14 15 16 79.064 20336
21,364 21,443 21,522 21,601

x
108
- 43
264
 GEIHG -
DICIEMBRE
Anexo

https://www.da
PUNTO 7 ne.gov.co/index.
php/estadisticas-
Población en TO
por- total edad de
Población Poblacion Mujeres Ocupados
Año Evaluado Final
valletema/mercado-
aburra trabajar Total Medellin Medellin Valle A
2008 Dic 08-Feb 09 3,295,566 valle2,726,872
laboral/empleo- aburra 2,636,101 1,200,947 1,385,494
2009 Dic 09 - Feb 10 y-3,343,395 2,777,552 1,664,394 1,213,837 1,504,268
2010 Dic 10 - Feb 11 desempleo/geih-
3,390,956 2,827,138 2,692,991 1,226,865 1,535,078
2011 Dic 11 - Feb 12 historicos
3,438,113 2,875,264 2,721,894 1,240,033 1,632,196
2012 Dic 12 - Feb 13 3,484,904 2,922,030 2,751,108 1,253,342 1,650,401
2013 Dic 13 - Feb 14 3,531,298 2,967,465 2,780,636 1,266,794 1,748,003
2014 Dic 14 - Feb 15 3,577,171 3,011,742 2,810,480 1,280,390 1,739,414
2015 Dic 15 - Feb 16 3,622,385 3,054,697 2,840,644 1,294,132 1,733,465
2016 Dic 16 - Feb 17 3,666,904 3,096,387 2,871,133 1,308,022 1,805,466
2017 Dic 17 - Feb 18 3,710,717 3,138,214 2,901,948 1,322,061 1,779,668
2018 Oct - Dic 3,746,604 3,170,465 2,343,360 1,200,056 1,855,252
2019
2020
2021 PROYECCION
2022
2023

https://www.medellincomovamos.org/empleo-e-inflacion/
Situacion general del empleo en medellon

Medellin y su pobla https://www.medellin.gov.co/irj/go/km/docs/wpccontent/Sites/Subportal%20del%20Ciudadan

 TP TO TP Paticipacion Tasa
Desocupados Ocupados Desocupados poblacion desempleo
Valle A Medellin Medellin Medellin en estimada 1
276,509 1,108,248 221,177 0.80 Valle A
total 8.39%
Medellin 0.9
275,465 748,848 137,131 0.50 8.24%
0.8
245,680 1,219,110 195,111 0.79 7.25%
233,761 1,292,181 185,065 0.79 6.80% 0.7
247,633 1,302,886 195,490 0.79 7.11% 0.6
228,886 1,376,423 180,231 0.79 6.48% 0.5
235,626 1,366,608 185,125 0.79 6.59% 0.4
252,178 1,359,369 197,756 0.78 6.96%
0.3
241,874 1,413,654 189,384 0.78 6.60%
260,391 1,391,781 203,637 0.78 7.02% 0.2
212,952 1,160,390 133,194 0.63 5.68% 0.1
191,940 0
0 R² = 20 4 6
190,339
188,739
187,138
185,538

Subportal%20del%20Ciudadano/Plan%20de%20Desarrollo/Secciones/Informaci%C3%B3n%20General/Documentos/POT/medellinPoblacion.pdf
 = 20 4 6 8 10 12

ntos/POT/medellinPoblacion.pdf