Statistics

Building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems contribute substantially to the energy consumption of buildings. Today, traditional HVAC systems mostly operate according to the maximum occupancy assumption, which in turn increases energy consumption during periods of low occupancy. Although, recently, implementing demand-driven HVAC operations are accepted as an innovate approach for reducing HVAC-related energy consumption, occupancy forecast is important to realize demand-driven HVAC operations in buildings. This study aims at using time series models in order to forecast the daily number of bank customers in a financial center of a bank, which is located in Izmir, Turkey. Data were collected from the computerized tracking system for a period of 60 weeks and two forecasting methods were used: 1) Decomposition Method, 2) Box-Jenkins Method. To determine the final model identified via the Box-Jenkins Method, goodness-of-fit, residual analysis and Akaike information criterion were taken into consideration. The results show that the SARIMA model with a MAPE of 11% yields a good occupancy forecast for supporting demand-driven HVAC operations.

Let X 1 ,y,X n be an exchangeable sequence of binary trials arranged on a circle with possible values ''1'' (success) or ''0'' (failure). In an exchangeable sequence, the joint distribution of X 1 ,X 2 ,y,X n is invariant under the permutation of its arguments. For the circular sequence, general expressions for the joint distributions of run statistics based on the joint distribution of success and failure run lengths are obtained. As a special case, we present our results for Bernoulli trials. The results presented consist of combinatorial terms and therefore provide easier calculations. For illustration purposes, some numerical examples are given and the reliability of the circular combined k-outof-n:G and consecutive k c-out-of-n:G system under stress-strength setup is evaluated.

Building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems contribute substantially to the energy consumption of buildings. Today, traditional HVAC systems mostly operate according to the maximum occupancy assumption, which in turn increases energy consumption during periods of low occupancy. Although, recently, implementing demand-driven HVAC operations are accepted as an innovate approach for reducing HVAC-related energy consumption, occupancy forecast is important to realize demand-driven HVAC operations in buildings. This study aims at using time series models in order to forecast the daily number of bank customers in a financial center of a bank, which is located in Izmir, Turkey. Data were collected from the computerized tracking system for a period of 60 weeks and two forecasting methods were used: 1) Decomposition Method, 2) Box-Jenkins Method. To determine the final model identified via the Box-Jenkins Method, goodness-of-fit, residual analysis and Akaike information criterion were taken into consideration. The results show that the SARIMA model with a MAPE of 11% yields a good occupancy forecast for supporting demand-driven HVAC operations.

Building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems contribute substantially to the energy consumption of buildings. Today, traditional HVAC systems mostly operate according to the maximum occupancy assumption, which in turn increases energy consumption during periods of low occupancy. Although, recently, implementing demand-driven HVAC operations are accepted as an innovate approach for reducing HVAC-related energy consumption, occupancy forecast is important to realize demand-driven HVAC operations in buildings. This study aims at using time series models in order to forecast the daily number of bank customers in a financial center of a bank, which is located in Izmir, Turkey. Data were collected from the computerized tracking system for a period of 60 weeks and two forecasting methods were used: 1) Decomposition Method, 2) Box-Jenkins Method. To determine the final model identified via the Box-Jenkins Method, goodness-of-fit, residual analysis and Akaike information criterion were taken into consideration. The results show that the SARIMA model with a MAPE of 11% yields a good occupancy forecast for supporting demand-driven HVAC operations.

Turkiye’de satisa sunulan cok sayida atistirmalik urun olmasina karsin, bu urunlerin cogunun beslenmeye katkilarinin olmadigi literaturde belirtilmektedir. Buna karsin, atistirmaliklarin beslenmeye katki saglamasi, insan sagligi acisindan yararli olan su urunlerinden elde edilmesi, Turk damak tadina uygun olarak uretilmesi, endustriye kazandirilarak tuketiminin arttirilmasi gerekmektedir. Dunyada ise su urunleri icerikli atistirmaliklar satisa sunulup tuketilmesine ragmen, ulkemizde endustriyel anlamda su urunlerinden atistirmalik uretimi ve satisi bulunmamaktadir. Bu amacla calismada saglik acisindan faydali kalamar atistirmaliklarinin uretilmesi ve uretilen bu atistirmaliklarin duyusal acidan degerlendirilmesi hedeflenmistir. Calismada kalamarlardan 12 farkli baharat (toz kirmizibiber, kimyon, kekik, yenibahar, corek otu, susam, karabiber, zerdecal, zencefil, sogan tozu, sarimsak tozu, tarcin) kullanilarak tuketime hazir baharat kapli kalamar atistirmaliklari elde edilmistir. Her ...

Building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems contribute substantially to the energy consumption of buildings. Today, traditional HVAC systems mostly operate according to the maximum occupancy assumption, which in turn increases energy consumption during periods of low occupancy. Although, recently, implementing demand-driven HVAC operations are accepted as an innovate approach for reducing HVAC-related energy consumption, occupancy forecast is important to realize demand-driven HVAC operations in buildings. This study aims at using time series models in order to forecast the daily number of bank customers in a financial center of a bank, which is located in Izmir, Turkey. Data were collected from the computerized tracking system for a period of 60 weeks and two forecasting methods were used: 1) Decomposition Method, 2) Box-Jenkins Method. To determine the final model identified via the Box-Jenkins Method, goodness-of-fit, residual analysis and Akaike information criterion were taken into consideration. The results show that the SARIMA model with a MAPE of 11% yields a good occupancy forecast for supporting demand-driven HVAC operations.

Let X 1 ,y,X n be an exchangeable sequence of binary trials arranged on a circle with possible values ''1'' (success) or ''0'' (failure). In an exchangeable sequence, the joint distribution of X 1 ,X 2 ,y,X n is invariant under the permutation of its arguments. For the circular sequence, general expressions for the joint distributions of run statistics based on the joint distribution of success and failure run lengths are obtained. As a special case, we present our results for Bernoulli trials. The results presented consist of combinatorial terms and therefore provide easier calculations. For illustration purposes, some numerical examples are given and the reliability of the circular combined k-outof-n:G and consecutive k c-out-of-n:G system under stress-strength setup is evaluated.

We study the reliabilities of circular and systems. These systems involve two common failure criteria which are more suitable for real world applications. Explicit formulas for the reliabilities of these circular systems are obtained for Markov-dependent components using the distribution theory of runs. The obtained results are also important for the distribution theory of runs. Moreover, the presented formulas consist of combinatorial terms, and therefore enable easier calculations. Some numerical results and the results of a simulation study are presented. Index Terms-Circular system, circular system, Markov-dependent trials, run statistics, common failure criteria, longest run statistic. NOTATION number of components state of component for total number of successes in total number of failures in total number of success runs in a circular sequence of total number of failure runs in a circular sequence of longest success run in a circular sequence of longest failure run in a circular sequence of reliability of circular system reliability of circular system reliability of circular system reliability of circular system I. INTRODUCTION I N the literature, various system structures have been defined, and calculations of the reliabilities of these systems have been studied. In the work of Chiang and Niu [4], a telecommunications system with relay stations, and an oil pipeline Manuscript

Öz Etki-dayanıklılık modelleri güvenilirlik analizinde önemli bir role sahiptir. Bu modelde etki değişkeni, bir bileşene (sisteme) dışarıdan etki eden faktörlere, dayanıklılık değişkeni ise bileşenin (sistemin) bu dış faktörlere karşı gösterdiği dirence karşılık gelmektedir. Bu çalışma kapsamında; faaliyetteki bir işletmenin her bir deposunda talep ve teslim süresi rasgele olan bir (,) envanter yönetim modelinin kullanıldığı varsayımı üzerine bir simülasyon çalışması yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın hedefi, tek bir deponun toplam maliyeti ve depo için önceden belirlenmiş olan bütçe ele alınarak işletmenin envanter yönetim modelinin güvenilirliğinin etki-dayanıklılık modellerinden yararlanılarak hesaplanmasıdır. Diğer hedef, farklı yeniden sipariş noktaları kullanılarak işletmenin tek bir deposunun envanter yönetim modelinin optimizasyonunun yapılması ve modelin güvenilirliğini maksimum düzeye çıkaran yeniden sipariş noktalarının belirlenmesidir. İşletmenin tek bir deposu için envanter yönetim modelinin toplam maliyeti dayanıklılık rasgele değişkeni () ve depo için önceden belirlenmiş olan bütçe de etki rasgele değişkeni () olarak ele alınmış; bu değişkenlerin normal dağılımdan geldiği durum için envanter sisteminin güvenilirliğine karşılık gelen (>) olasılığı hesaplanmıştır. Envanter yönetim modelinin varsayımlarının değişmesinin sistem güvenilirliği üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi amacıyla envanter varsayımlarından bazıları değiştirilmiş ve bu olasılık tekrar hesaplanmıştır. Hesaplanan güvenilirlik değerleri karşılaştırılmış ve envanter yönetim modelinin güvenilirliği analiz edilmiştir.

This study was conducted in order to develop different statistical models for estimating the bacterial count of squid rings marinated with lemon juice and mineral water after cooking. The marination ratios and times were as follows: (10:90; 90:10; 50:50; 100:100/100 g squid ring) and (1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 and 72 h), respectively. The effects of marination ratios and times on the microbiological and sensory changes of the cooked squid rings were observed at 4°C. Pathogenic bacteria (Vibrio spp., Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli) were not found in the cooked (C) and cooked marinated (CM) squid rings in the present study. The TMC (total mesophilic aerobic bacteria counts) of all groups were determined as consumable at 72 h, whereas the TMC of C and CM samples (C7, CM7, CM14, CM21, CM28) increased to 5.92, 5.83, 5.71, 5.57 and 5.42 log cfu/g, respectively. Regression models were created to estimate the TMC and lactic acid bacteria count (LBC) of cooked squid rings during the marination process at 4°C to determine the increasing rates of bacterial growth of samples. As a result of this study; when compared with Model I and Model II; both of them can be preferred for predicting the TMC of C and CM samples. The variability in the TMC of C and CM squid samples was obtained as 93% in Model I, whereas the variability in the TMC of these samples was observed as 91% in Model II. So, these two models performed well, and they can be used for predicting the TMC of C and CM samples. Additionally, Model III was also developed for estimating the prediction value of LBC of cooked squid samples during the marination process at 4°C. This model was also determined very good performance (86%) to estimate the predicting values of LBC and it can be very essential together used with Model I or Model II for marinated fishery products to estimate the real shelf-life.

In this study, the profust reliabilities of (n, f, k) : F (G) and <n, f, k> : F (G) systems for Markov dependent components are investigated. Having two failure criteria are the common features of these four systems. The usage of both fuzzy approach and two failure criteria in the same system provides us more realistic approach to evaluate the reliability of more complex systems. The component configurations are examined for both linear and circular sequences and the working principle of systems are studied for both F and G systems. Under all these assumptions, the profust reliabilities of (n, f, k) : F (G) and < n, f, k>: F (G) systems are obtained using the distribution of run statistics. Also a new membership function different from the linear membership function which is generally used in the literature is proposed. Some numerical results which allow the comparison of the systems from various perspectives and various figures for both linear and circular type systems are presented. Some special cases (between Markov-iid assumption, conventional-profust reliability) are also considered.

To investigate differences in perioperative complications and short-term outcomes of patients who underwent abdominal sacrocolpopexy / sacrohysteropexy, laparoscopic sa-crocolpopexy / sacrohysteropexy, or laparoscopic pectopexy due to apical prolapse. A retrospective cohort study was performed on 110 patients who underwent apical prolapse surgery between January 1, 2011, and July 31, 2017. Only symp-tomatic uterine or vaginal vault prolapse patients with stage 2-4, according to the pelvic organ prolapse quantification system, were included. Baseline and intraoperative variables of groups; perioperative complications, including hemorrhage, urinary, and wound complications, blood transfusion, ileus, and short-term outcomes were compared. A total of 68 abdominal sacrocolpopexies (44 sacrocolpopexies and 24 sa-crohysteropexies), 14 laparoscopic sacrocolpopexies (10 sacrocolpopexies and 4 sa-crohysteropexies), and 28 laparoscopic pectopexies (16 pectopexies and 12 pectohys-teropexies) we...

Both gold is a mostly preferred investment instrument and is easily influenced by economic instability and politic conditions. It’s aimed to examine which economic factors affecting the price of gold in Turkey using the vector autoregression (VAR) models that is time series method and to reveal the dynamic and stable relations between variables. For this purpose, we obtained Borsa Istanbul (BI) gold prices, exchange rate, interest rate, consumer price index (CPI) and BIST 100 index, the ounce prices of gold and oil price variables. Monthly data between 2005:01-2015:04 has been analysed with VAR model depending on stationarity and cointegration tests. According to the results of the analyses, while the largest shares of the variables are ounce and oil prices, the lowest is interest rate in future period prediction error variance for BI gold prices. Besides, one standart deviation shock on ounce prices of gold creates the most response on BI gold prices and the shock on oil prices cre...

A new class of multivariate discrete distributions with binomial and multinomial marginals is studied. This class of distributions is obtained in a natural manner using probabilistic properties of the sampling model considered. Some possible applications in game theory, life testing and exceedance models for order statistics are discussed.

Objectives: To investigate the predictors of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Methods: Thirty-five patients with nonoptimally cytoreductable at stage III-IV EOC who were treated with NACT and interval cytoreductive surgery in our center between January 2002 and February 2009 were enrolled into this retrospective pilot study. Response to NACT was evaluated according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST). Results: All patients received three courses platinum-based chemotherapy [24 (69%) received pactitaxel plus carboplatin and 11 (31%) received paclitaxel plus cisplatin]. There were 12 (34%) partial response to and 23 (66%) stable disease after NACT. Optimal cytoreduction was subsequently achieved in 32 of 35 patients (91%). Among age, hystology, ovarian size, CA-125 level, severity of pleural effusion, extensive omental disease, diaphragmatic implants, liver parenchyma metastasis, used chemotherapy regimen; only extensive omental disease was found to be predictive (P ¼ 0.004). Conclusions: Ovarian cancer patients with extensive omental disease were possibly better treated with primary cytoreductive surgery, since they were more likely to have less responsive to NACT. This finding can be used to identify patients who will get poor response to NACT and to design future tailored randomized clinical trials.

Fa ko e mül si fi kas yon (fa ko) ve plan lı eks tra kap sü ler ka ta rakt eks trak si yo nu (PEK KE) yön tem le ri nin mer ke zi kor ne a ka lın lı ğı (MKK)'na ve kor ne a en do te li ne olan et ki le ri ni spe kü ler mik ros ko pi (SM) ile in ce le mektir. G Ge e r re eç ç v ve e Y Yö ön n t te em ml le er r: : Şubat 2001-Ni san 2002 ta rih le ri ara sın da kliniğimizde ka ta rakt ame li yat ya pı lan, rast ge le se çil miş 102 has ta nın 102 gö zü ile ri ye dö nük olarak ça lış ma ya alın dı. Has ta lar fa ko ve PEK KE cer ra hi si ol mak üze re iki gru ba ay rıl dı lar. Ame li yat ön ce si de ğer len dir me de, ru tin of tal mo lo jik mu a ye ne le ri ve SM öl çüm le ri ya pıl dı. SM öl çü mü temas sız spe kü ler mik ros ko pi (Top con SP 2000) ci ha zı ile san tral kor ne a dan fo toğ raf lar çe ki le rek yapıl dı. Has ta lar ame li yat son ra sı 1. gün, 7. gün, 15. gün, 1. ay, 2. ay ve 3. ay kon trol edil di ler. Ay rı ca has ta la ra ame li yat son ra sı 7. gün, 1. ay ve 3. ay da ki kon trol le rin de SM öl çüm le ri ya pıl dı ve so nuçla rı ka yıt edil di. Has ta lar SM öl çü mün de el de edi len de ğer ler den; MKK, or ta la ma en do tel hüc re ala nı (OE HA) ve mm 2' deki or ta la ma en do tel hüc re sa yı sı (OEHS) ve bu de ğer ler de olu şan de ğişim ler açı sın dan de ğer len di ril di ler. B Bu ul l g gu u l la ar r: : Or ta la ma MKK, OE HA ve OEHS öl çüm le ri kar şı laştı rıl dı ğın da, iki grup ara sın da ame li yat ön ce sin de ve ame li yat son ra sı 7. gün, 1. ay ve 3. aylar da is ta tis tik sel ola rak an lam lı fark yok tu (p> 0.05). Tek rar la yan dört fark lı öl çüm de iki gru bun is ta tistik sel ola rak an lam lı dü zey de fark lı se yir iz le me dik le ri be lir len di (p> 0.05). S So o n nu uç ç: : Fa ko ve PEK-KE ile ya pı lan ka ta rakt cer ra hi le ri kor ne a en do te li üze rin de ben zer et ki le re sa hip tir. Fa ko ile ka ta rakt cer ra hi si kü çük ke si den uy gu la na bi lir li ği ve er ken re ha bi li tas yon sağ la ma sı gi bi özel likle riy le gü ven li ve kon for lu bir ame li yat tır. PEK KE cer ra hi sinin de en do tel üze rin de ben zer et ki lere sa hip ol du ğu için, cer ra hın tec rü be du ru mu ve has ta özel lik le ri dik ka te alın dı ğın da se çil miş has ta lar da gü ven le uy gu la na bi le ce ği ni dü şün mek te yiz.