Articles by Matthew Valasik
Network Science, May 8, 2023
The hypothesis that violence-especially gang violence-behaves like a contagious disease has grown... more The hypothesis that violence-especially gang violence-behaves like a contagious disease has grown in popularity in recent years. Scholars have long observed the tendency for violence to cluster in time and space, but little research has focused on empirically unpacking the mechanisms that make violence contagious. In the context of gang violence, retaliation is the prototypical mechanism to explain why violence begets violence. In this study, we leverage relational event models (REMs)-an underutilized yet particularly well-suited modeling technique to study the dynamics of inter-gang violence. We use REMs to examine gang violence's tendency to replicate-for which retaliation is but one plausible mechanismand its tendency to diffuse to other groups. We rely on data on conflicts between gangs in a region of Los Angeles over 3 years. We consider how the characteristics of gangs, their spatial proximity, networks of established rivalries, and the evolving history, directionality, and structure of conflicts predict future inter-gang conflicts. While retaliation is an important mechanism for the replication of violence, established rivalries, and inertia-a gang's tendency to continue attacking the same group-are more important drivers of future violence. We also find little evidence for an emerging pecking order or status hierarchy between gangs suggested by other scholars. However, we find that gangs are more likely to attack multiple gangs in quick succession. We propose that gang violence is more likely to diffuse to other groups because of the boost of internal group processes an initial attack provides.
Sociology Compass, 2023
The continued public presence of far-right groups, particularly alt-right gangs (e.g., Proud Boys... more The continued public presence of far-right groups, particularly alt-right gangs (e.g., Proud Boys) participating in mass demonstrations and protests across the United States has made it clear that these groups and their behavior remain a concern. The overall lack of knowledge among policy makers, law enforcement, and community residents on how to deal with alt-right gang members has limited their ability to intervene and prevent violence. The misconception that alt-right gangs are domestic terrorist organizations, primarily driven by racist ideology, ignores just how unrefined and rudimentary the beliefs that connect members together actually are. The reliance on ideology has limited the inclusion of alt-right gangs in conventional gang studies and has directly impacted gang scholars' ability to understand group dynamics among these far-right gangs. This has in turned skewed also how law enforcement is trained to identify and deal with alt-right gangs. This manuscript overviews the need to rectify the historical apathy of traditional gang scholars and law enforcement in dealing with far-right/alt-right gangs. We conclude with a discussion on how the mainstreaming of alt-right groups over the last few years has accelerated and the growing need to explicitly treat these groups as street gangs.
Journal of Criminal Justice, 2023
The current study examines the mobility patterns of gang associates in East Los Angeles using Fie... more The current study examines the mobility patterns of gang associates in East Los Angeles using Field Investigation (FI) cards collected by police officers to document informal encounters with civilians. Methods: We construct a typology classifying each stop in relation to a gang associate's claimed territory, residence, and the location of the stop. We then report on the distribution of mobility types and describe the individual-, event-, and gang-level characteristics commonly associated with each. Results: Our findings suggest that there is significant variability in the mobility patterns of gang associates, and that associates often live outside their gang's turf, sometimes returning to their turf, but often spending time away from their turf. Conclusions: These results have implications for place-based gang interventions and suggest that all gangs may not be equally suited to interventions such as civil gang injunctions.
Contexts, 2021
The uneven response by law enforcement has resulted in the overall under-policing of far-right gr... more The uneven response by law enforcement has resulted in the overall under-policing of far-right groups. Policy makers and the broader criminal justice system need consider proactive approaches if the goal is to prevent violence from far-right groups. A straightforward and appropriate approach is to treat far-right groups as street gangs. Existing gang statutes are a proven tool is aggressively used on BIPOC gangs and should be equally applied to far-right groups. Law enforcement’s continued dismissiveness of far-right groups only increases them as being the most "persistent and lethal threat" in the United States for the foreseeable future.
Social Sciences, Jun 11, 2021
The goal of this Special Issue is to examine the diverse nature of gang-related violence in moder... more The goal of this Special Issue is to examine the diverse nature of gang-related violence in modern life by providing insights into the growing complexities to better direct public policy solutions in the 21st Century
Criminal Justice Review, Jun 1, 2021
A renewed interest in understanding the relationship of the built environment with neighborhood c... more A renewed interest in understanding the relationship of the built environment with neighborhood crime patterns has encouraged researchers to utilize novel methods (e.g., risk terrain modeling) to better examine the influence of environmental risk factors on types of crime. The current study engages with this research by operationalizing neighborhoods using Hipp and Boessen's egohood strategy and using Drawve's aggregate neighborhood risk of crime measure to assess the relationship of a neighborhood's physical environment with its spatial vulnerability of experiencing a homicide. Findings demonstrate that the physical environment was a significant predictor of neighborhood homicide; however, social structural neighborhood characteristics were more important. This suggests crime prevention strategies like crime prevention though environmental design or blight remediation may provide prudent and straightforward methods to inhibit lethal violence in a community in the short run, but that addressing a neighborhood's social structural characteristics may be more effective at reducing homicides in the long term.
Contexts, May 12, 2021
Policy makers, law enforcement, and the broader criminal justice system need to begin considering... more Policy makers, law enforcement, and the broader criminal justice system need to begin considering alternative, more proactive approaches to thwart these violent far-right groups. That is, far-right groups should be approached and treated as street gangs. Law enforcement’s use of intimidating interventions to disrupt BIPOC groups or protests should match how far-right groups engaging in more threatening behavior are addressed. The traditional crowd control techniques used to restrain far-right groups are inadequate to suppress their violent and destructive behavior. Had the DC National Guard been deployed at the US Capitol Building on January 6th, like the Black Lives Matter protests in the summer of 2020, that may have been enough to inhibit the destruction and rioting that ensued. The inconsistent dealings with far-right groups also makes it challenging for coordinated efforts among law enforcement agencies. The result ends up being an overall under policing of far-right groups.
Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, Aug 23, 2021
In this editorial, we want to highlight areas where we, as gang scholars, need to be better. We b... more In this editorial, we want to highlight areas where we, as gang scholars, need to be better. We believe that many of us, unwittingly or not, have been part of the problem. As a community of scholars, we need to recognize the power we have in guiding perceptions of a phenomena and reactions to it. We argue that most of our past failures have been to inadequately use this power or even failing to recognize that we have it. Through our silence and tacit endorsement of the status quo, we have allowed the criminal justice system and its actor to take ownership of the concept of the gang and let them – along with the media – proliferate ideas and myths we know are wrong. We watched – and sometimes assisted – as they used the mythical idea of the gang to justify policies and practices that have contributed to uphold White supremacy and destroyed trust in institutions among communities of color.
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters, Aug 25, 2021
Identifying the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol as an inf lection point, this article an... more Identifying the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol as an inf lection point, this article analyzes the historical relationship between White supremacy and the US military from Reconstruction after the Civil War to the present. The article posits causes for the disproportionate number of current and former members of the military associated with White power groups and proposes steps the Department of Defense can take to combat the problems posed by the association of the US military with these groups.
Social Sciences, 2021
This research extends the homicide literature by using latent class analysis methods to examine t... more This research extends the homicide literature by using latent class analysis methods to examine the neighborhood structural and demographic characteristics of different categories of homicides in the Hollenbeck Community Policing Area of the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD). The Hollenbeck area itself is a 15 square-mile region with approximately 187,000 residents, the majority of whom are Latino (84 percent). Hollenbeck also has a protracted history of intergenerational Latinx gangs with local neighborhood residents viewing them as a fundamental social problem. Hollenbeck has over 30 active street gangs, each claiming a geographically defined territory, many of which have remained stable during the study period. Over twenty years (1990–2012) of homicide data collected from Hollenbeck’s Homicide Division are utilized to create an empirically rigorous typology of homicide incidents and to test whether or not gang homicides are sufficiently distinct in nature to be a unique category in the latent class analysis.
Journal of Planning Education and Research, Dec 3, 2020
Valasik1AbstractThis study examines the relationship of blight reduction with violent crime in Ba... more Valasik1AbstractThis study examines the relationship of blight reduction with violent crime in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. We examine whether an initiative to paint murals in high-crime areas was associated with declines in calls for service for violent crime. This relationship was assessed by analyzing variation in calls for service in the areas within 500 feet of mural installations and at the block group level over a nine-year period. Our findings suggest the influence of blight reduction strategies for violence can vary by unit of analysis and that such strategies by themselves are unlikely to be strongly associated with reductions in violence.
Critical Criminology, Nov 28, 2020
The combining of administrative, civil, and criminal law has broadened modern crime control mecha... more The combining of administrative, civil, and criminal law has broadened modern crime control mechanisms and greatly increased the legal authority and discretion of law enforcement officers. Such legal hybridity has contributed specifically to the pervasiveness of spatial regulatory practices (or spatial remedies), such as the use of banishment policies and civil gang injunctions (CGIs), by police in urban centers. While banishment policies and CGIs exemplify the reliance on legal hybridity to manage "deviant" populations spatially, empirical evidence suggests that spatial remedies guided by the theoretical underpinnings of deterrence and broken windows perspectives are not efficacious at predicting observed behavioral changes. We argue for a critical approach to understanding disobedience to spatial remedies, suggesting that routine activities theory is an appropriate framework to expose why these mechanisms fail to generate robust compliance or remedy problem areas.
Crime Science, Aug 26, 2019
Intergroup violence is assumed to play a key role in establishing and maintaining gang competitiv... more Intergroup violence is assumed to play a key role in establishing and maintaining gang competitive dominance. However , it is not clear how competitive ability, gang size and reciprocal violence interact. Does competitive dominance lead to larger gangs, or allow them to remain small? Does competitive dominance lead gangs to mount more attacks against rivals, or expose them to more attacks? We explore a model developed in theoretical ecology to understand communities arranged in strict competitive hierarchies. The model is extended to generate expectations about gang size distributions and the directionality of gang violence. Model expectations are explored with twenty-three years of data on gang homicides from Los Angeles. Gangs may mitigate competitive pressure by quickly finding gaps in the spatial coverage of superior competitors. Competitively superior gangs can be larger or smaller than competitively inferior gangs and a disproportionate source or target of directional violence, depending upon where exactly they fall in the competitive hierarchy. A model specifying the mechanism of competitive dominance is needed to correctly interpret gang size and violence patterns.
Crime & Delinquency, 2020
Research has increasingly moved toward a consensus that violent crime declines as neighborhoods g... more Research has increasingly moved toward a consensus that violent crime declines as neighborhoods gentrify, yet some studies find the direction of this relationship varies by type of violent crime. This finding becomes even more important when connected with recent research that finds the structural influences of gang and non-gang homicide are disparate. The current study engages with research in each of these areas by examining the relationship of gentrification with levels of total, gang, and non-gang homicide in Los Angeles Police Department's (LAPD) Hollenbeck Community Policing Area. We find gentrification was not associated with variation in total or gang homicide, but was positively associated with non-gang homicide.
Oxford Bibliographies Online: Criminology, Jan 15, 2019
The mapping and spatial analysis of crime covers a broad range of techniques and has been used to... more The mapping and spatial analysis of crime covers a broad range of techniques and has been used to explore a variety of topics. In its most basic form, crime mapping is the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) to visualize and organize spatial data for more formal statistical analysis. Spatial analysis can be employed in both an exploratory and well as a more confirmatory manner with the primary purpose of identifying how certain community or ecological factors (such as population characteristics or the built environment) influence the spatial patterns of crime. Two topics of particular interest include examining for evidence of the diffusion of crime and in evaluating the effectiveness of geographically targeted crime reduction strategies. Crime mapping can also be used to visualize and analyze the movement or target selection patterns of criminals. Mapping software allows for the creation of electronic pin-maps and by spatially organizing the data, GIS increases the analytical value of these maps. Crime mapping allows researchers and practitioners to explore crime patterns, offender mobility, and serial offenses over time and space. Within the context of local policing, crime mapping provides the visualization of crime clusters by types of crimes, thereby validating the street knowledge of patrol officers. Crime mapping can be used for allocating resources (patrol, specialized enforcement) and also to inform how the concerns of local citizens are being addressed. The citations listed below highlight the interdisciplinary nature of both the study of crime and the development of the methods used in spatial analysis. They exemplify the growing prominence that spatial analysis has in understanding where crime occurs.
Journal of Interpersonal Violence, Jan 15, 2019
Social research has long argued that collective resources and major events like disasters have an... more Social research has long argued that collective resources and major events like disasters have an important impact on violent crime, but it has been difficult to show their effects because data are scarce. We conducted a large survey in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina that included questions about collective resources. We aggregated our sample to the census tract level and merged it with data on concentrated disadvantage and violent crime. Our analyses show that bridging social networks are associated with lower levels of violent crime, while bonding social networks are associated with higher levels. Social trust is associated with lower levels of violent crime, but civic engagement has no impact. Concentrated disadvantage is associated with higher levels of violent crime. Finally, our results suggest that disaster recovery increased the importance of collective resources but not concentrated disadvantage on violent crime.
Social Science Reserach, 2018
Incorporating features of the built environment, risk terrain modeling (RTM), is used to predict ... more Incorporating features of the built environment, risk terrain modeling (RTM), is used to predict future criminal events in micro-units (i.e., city blocks). The current study examines the application of RTM to forecast homicide in the capital city of Baton Rouge, Louisiana while including a novel environmental risk factor, blighted properties. Based upon the extant literature and knowledge of the city, eighteen environmental risk factors are expected to spatially influence homicide. Results indicate that places most at risk of experiencing a homicide are located in areas where blighted properties are concentrated and in close proximity to convenience stores. RTM successfully identities and evaluates environmental risk factors that spatially influence lethal violence. Additionally, RTM is able to accurately forecast future acts of homicide. The results underscore how crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) and blight remediation could be utilized as straightforward and prudent strategies to reduce lethal violence.
Journal of Interpersonal Violence, Sep 22, 2018
The present study systematically assesses the influence of hookup culture endorsement on the acce... more The present study systematically assesses the influence of hookup culture endorsement on the acceptance of female rape myths (i.e., false, stereotypical, or prejudicial beliefs regarding sexual assault involving female survivors) and male rape myths (i.e., false, stereotypical, or prejudicial beliefs about sexual assault involving male survivors). Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to assess the primary hypotheses that a particular form of hookup culture endorsement (i.e., the belief that hookups elevate an individual's social status) would act as the primary predictor of male and female rape myth acceptance among a sample of 376 U.S. college students. As with prior research, a complex relationship emerged for both male and female rape mythology in which acceptance increases or decreases based upon the form of hookup culture endorsement examined, as the endorsement of beliefs reflecting heterosexual power dynamics (e.g., harmlessness and status attainment) functioned as positive predictors of rape myth acceptance, while beliefs challenging such assumptions (e.g., sexual freedom) served to decrease rape myth acceptance. Results supported the primary hypotheses that beliefs concerning hookups and status attainment would be the largest predictor of male rape myth acceptance and female rape myth acceptance. Consistent with prior research, the predictive power of gender and religiosity
Journal of Criminal Justice, Jul 2, 2018
Purpose: The current study investigates the application of risk terrain modeling (RTM) to forecas... more Purpose: The current study investigates the application of risk terrain modeling (RTM) to forecast gang violence. RTM is routinely utilized to predict future criminal events in micro-units (i.e., city blocks) based upon features of the physical environment. The particular focus of the current study is RTM's ability to separately predict future gang assaults and gang homicides in the Los Angeles Police Department's (LAPD) Hollenbeck Community Policing Area.
Method: Guided by the existing gang literature and knowledge of the region, 22 environmental risk factors are anticipated to spatially influence gang assaults and gang homicides. An RTM is established for 2009 gang assaults and 2009–2011 gang homicides. The RTM is then used to predict 2012 gang assaults and 2012 gang homicides respectively.
Results: Places most at risk of experiencing a gang assault are in close proximity to where gang members are frequently observed loitering by police and Metro rail stops while also contending with residential concentrations of local gang members. Areas most at risk of experiencing a gang homicide cope with residential concentrations of local gang members and gang set space. The ability for RTM to successfully forecast future gang violence may be limited.
Conclusions: RTM is able to successfully identify and evaluate meaningful environment risk factors that spatially influence gang assaults and gang violence. However, the ability for RTM to successfully forecast future gang violence may be limited.
Deviant Behavior, 2019
Given the current political climate, the mainstreaming of Alt-Right groups, and growing public co... more Given the current political climate, the mainstreaming of Alt-Right groups, and growing public concern, this paper argues that gang scholars are well situated to investigate these Alt-Right groups and their members. Qualitative and quantitative data collected from youth incarcerated within California’s Division of Juvenile Justice are used to examine the differences and similarities between a range of individual-level risk factors and group- level descriptors to better understand the overlap between members of racist skinhead/Alt-Right groups and street gangs. Findings highlight how closely aligned these two groups are across domains.
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Articles by Matthew Valasik
Method: Guided by the existing gang literature and knowledge of the region, 22 environmental risk factors are anticipated to spatially influence gang assaults and gang homicides. An RTM is established for 2009 gang assaults and 2009–2011 gang homicides. The RTM is then used to predict 2012 gang assaults and 2012 gang homicides respectively.
Results: Places most at risk of experiencing a gang assault are in close proximity to where gang members are frequently observed loitering by police and Metro rail stops while also contending with residential concentrations of local gang members. Areas most at risk of experiencing a gang homicide cope with residential concentrations of local gang members and gang set space. The ability for RTM to successfully forecast future gang violence may be limited.
Conclusions: RTM is able to successfully identify and evaluate meaningful environment risk factors that spatially influence gang assaults and gang violence. However, the ability for RTM to successfully forecast future gang violence may be limited.
Method: Guided by the existing gang literature and knowledge of the region, 22 environmental risk factors are anticipated to spatially influence gang assaults and gang homicides. An RTM is established for 2009 gang assaults and 2009–2011 gang homicides. The RTM is then used to predict 2012 gang assaults and 2012 gang homicides respectively.
Results: Places most at risk of experiencing a gang assault are in close proximity to where gang members are frequently observed loitering by police and Metro rail stops while also contending with residential concentrations of local gang members. Areas most at risk of experiencing a gang homicide cope with residential concentrations of local gang members and gang set space. The ability for RTM to successfully forecast future gang violence may be limited.
Conclusions: RTM is able to successfully identify and evaluate meaningful environment risk factors that spatially influence gang assaults and gang violence. However, the ability for RTM to successfully forecast future gang violence may be limited.
It is best to think of the Islamic State as an amalgam, bringing together the characteristics of many different types of actors—some legitimate, some downright evil—but with no single label doing the job.
Evolving from the archetypal terrorist group to an organisation whose interstitial nature makes it almost impossible to label clearly what ISIS is: terrorist, insurgent, cult, state, social service provider, or revolutionary state sponsor of terror (Atwan, 2015; Byman, 2015a; Cronin, 2015; Gerges, 2016; Warrick, 2015). Guided by the literature (Curry, 2011; Decker & Pyrooz, 2011, 2015), ISIS is juxtaposed to street gangs using seven characteristics: formation, group structure, demographics, violence and criminality, migration patterns, use of technology, and goals, to illustrate how the criminological literature, specifically gang studies, can better equip scholars and practitioners to address violent extremism, terrorism, and insurgency in an era of globalisation.
The CSA is required to submit annual reports to the California State Legislature measuring the success of JJCPA. The legislation identified six specific outcome measures (“the big six”) to be included in annual reports from each of the individual JJCPA programs. These outcome measures are (1) successful completion of probation, (2) arrests, (3) probation violations, (4) incarcerations, (5) successful completion of restitution, and (6) successful completion of community service. Each county can also offer supplemental outcomes to measure locally identified service needs. JJCPA programs were first implemented in the summer and fall of 2001 and are now in their seventh year of funding.
The RAND Corporation received funding from the Los Angeles County Probation Department in February 2008 to conduct the evaluation of the county’s JJCPA programs, including analyzing and reporting findings to the CSA for fiscal year 2007–2008. This is the second quarterly report being prepared by RAND researchers for the probation department during this first year of the contract. The first took the form of a RAND project memorandum, a publication designed for communication with the client only. That first report presented a template for all subsequent quarterly reports to follow. In this and subsequent quarterly reports, we present substantive findings from site visits to JJCPA service providers. The specific providers to be evaluated in each quarter are selected by Probation.