20.4.2013.
I'm writing now, one night away from Nomination Day tomorrow, 20th. April, for GE 13 on 5th May, 2008, because I want to see whether what I say would be borne out in 15 days' time.
GE 13
The numerals themselves lend all kinds of superstitious connotations - 13, the unlucky number, and so on. For different people, especially those chosen, or not, as candidates, it would indeed be lucky, or not. Let me assure you that they all have tried their darndest to be picked, despite their likely downplaying it. But let me assure you also that at the end of their terms, many would also likely wish they had not agreed to contest.
GE 11 & 12.
What happened ?
GE 12 on 8/3/2008 was 3 years 11 months 17 days after GE 11 on 21/3/2004.
How could so much go wrong in such a short time?
In GE 11 BN won 90% in Parliament and all State Assemblies except Kelantan. That's more than 90%.
In GE 12 BN only won 62.7% in Parliament, and lost 5 out of 13 states - Selangor, Perak, Kedah, Pulau Pinang and Kelantan. That's a win of less than 62 %. Perak later went back to BN after some seat-jumping , but Selangor and Pulau Pinang were bitter pills to swallow for BN.
I maintain that it was not substance but style at issue. There was Dollah, a Prime Minister who neither worked hard, nor cared whether he did. He was more concerned about getting out of the shadows of his predecessor. But he tried to do it not by showing what he can do, but by trying to dismantle what his predecessor had done in the last 20 years. In his self-serving assessment of the BN's "Great Win" in 2004 he might have thought it was all his work. Really, he was riding on the great successes achieved before him.
Mahathir spotted the attempt to undo his legacy very quickly, and became very critical ,very publicly, very quickly. It spelt Dollah's downfall within less than 4 years. That Dollah openly chose to fight back, without skill and strategy, engaging the help of such people as his ambitious son-in-law and the battle-scarred Musa Hitam, did not help. The bitterness of this unnecessary UMNO quarrel carried over to veteran UMNO members. They felt betrayed by Dollah who, in their eyes, had been behaving like a good subordinate, and was duly rewarded by being picked over the more popular Najib to succeed Mahathir. And this was how Dollah chose to show his gratitude ?
The best way for the veterans to show their displeasure was by staying away from GE 12.
And the best way for the UMNO Supreme Council to show its displeasure after the elections was to ask Dollah to go, sooner rather than later, thanks mainly to Muhyiddin's daring stand, as he said "I have Johore UMNO solidly behind me".
"When the cat is away, the mice begin to play."
When DAP, PAS and PKR heard that Dollah was about to be sacked as PM they naturally protested. This was a PM they could be comfortable with, to say the very least.
In fact in the last 5 years all the issues on race, religion and Special Malay Rights addressed by MAGERAN after the race riots of May 13, 1969 had raisen their ugly heads.
May 13 race riots.
Many young "democratic liberals" from all parties today feel this sad episode should be deleted from the annals of Malaysian history. But surely that is rewriting history, and a self-denial.
I say maintain the record of this tragic chapter in our nation-building, so that we don't repeat the same grave mistakes.
PRU 3 was on 10th May 1969. When DAP won in Selangor there were massive celebrations by their supporters in KL. They went around town and into Malay areas like Kampong Baru, in small lorries, packed with young Chinese and Indians shouting vulgarities and showing their genitals, shouting "Melayu balik kampong!" carrying giant mock brooms. I was staying in Kampong Baru at that time, renting a room in Jalan Mahmud because I was in my first year working in Felda's HQ in Jalan Maktab, about 10 minutes away (those were days of no traffic!) The couple of days before the riots I had gone to Chow Kit Road close by, and when I asked for the price of the things I wanted to buy from the Chinese shopkeepers, they were unusually rude. There was a sudden and violent rise in the KL Malays' anger at this obviously racist reaction for a GE that DAP in particular had won big in Selangor.
You should remember that "amok" in the English dictionary is a Malay word. "Amok" it was, beginning from Selangor MB Datuk Harun Idris' house, at Princess Road next to Kampong Baru.
Of course there were also stories of human kindness transcending racism and bigotry, like that of my late friend, Zainuddin, who was renting a room owned by a Chinese family in Brickfields, because he was working in Income Tax at their old HQ next to KTM Grand Railway Station. His landlord told him to lie low during the troubles. And Jayos may have a story, too, when he was caught at Rex Cinema when the riots erupted in the late afternoon.
The BN formula.
After 12 GE's and after more than half-a century, the Perikatan, and now BN, formula has proven to be a pragmatic approach to an incredibly complex multi-racial society. Looking at Great Britain, USA, Europe and Africa, and near by countries like Burma, Thailand and Indonesia, where sectoral conflicts have occurred with less excuse, it is a wonder that Malaysia with deep cultural, lingual and religious differences among its 3 main races has not had a long series of "May 13"s". It's because of the "formula" of acceptance and mutual respect embodied in an agreed political agenda practiced with committment. The opposition "Pakatan" has an on-off unwritten modus operandi. The Pakatan is unregistered and therefore not legal. But "Pakatan" in Malay is usually used to describe a conspiracy to do evil deeds. So that fits.
Special Rights of The Malays, Islam and the Institution of the Malay Rulers.
As ensconced in the Constitution, Special Malay Rights, Islam, and the Malay Rulers are not for bargaining, and the sooner the rakyat accept this as ensured by 12 BN Governments in the past, the better. The only alternative to this is unending turmoil, to say the least. The history of this country dictates this, despite arguments against it. The fact is the Chinese and the Indians have not been victimised by this constitutional provision. In fact the economic power weilded by these two races speak volumes about opportunity and the rewards of enterprise. I could just mention Kuok and Vincent and Ananda and Air-Asia to illustrate. You'll take a while before an Al Bukhary or Sapura appears on such a list, and they with a healthy push from the Government of the day.
PAS & PKR.
PAS grew out of UMNO from a faction of religious extremists, and in its agenda has remained basically extremist. In its proclaimed form PAS can never be accepted by a multi-racial Malaysia. The sad part is that Islam is not extreme. On the contrary the teachings of both the Holy Quran and the Prophet Muhammad (saw) urge the ummah to take the "middle way" and to value human life and human welfare above everything else except the submission to the faith in God. Very clearly the Holy Quran also says the non-believers should be allowed their own beliefs.
PAS uses religion when talking to the Malays, having even gone on record to say that it was "haram" for UMNO to work with MCA and MIC. But to their new-found political ally, DAP, they more than soften their utterance, going even to the rescue of DAP's support of the use of "Allah", and suddenly their friendship with the "infidels" DAP is "halal."
Like PAS, PKR also grew out of UMNO, where from top to bottom party members for one reason or another were disenchanted with UMNO.
The most obvious example is Anwar, the PKR leader himself. For two decades he was an UMNO stalwart until he became the second most powerful man in the country, with more than a little push from Mahathir ,who first picked him from one slipper-shod private school teacher in Jalan Pantai into the corridors of power. After 6 years of investigation, (and not because he opposed Mahathir's actions during the 1997 financial crisis), Mahathir concluded that this was an immoral person who cannot be allowed to become Prime Minister. Since his sacking Anwar has only said bad about UMNO and everybody in it. When he was UMNO no. 2, everything about it was good. If he was not lying then, he is now. Add that to the Liwat I and Liwat II and all the sex videos, genuine or fake, and you have one big problem.
The anti Islam lobby.
The US and Europe make it obvious that they are, as governments, in fear of, and therefore against Islam. From the larger acts of their respective legislative houses to the more mundane laws of their local authorities they have made that pretty obvious. Thus we have the Home Defence Act, the Immigration Acts, the ban on mosque minerets, the ban on wearing of the hijab, and the passenger profiling at their airports. There's no difference between the hijab and a nun's headgear, and every bomb blast need not come from the hands of a Muslim fanatic. Northern Ireland had that monopoly for a long time before Osama bin Ladin.
Malaysia under Mahathir was loud and critical in support of the Palestine state. Look at history in the circumstances leading to creation of the state of Israeal after WWII. Malaysia has been a pain in their asses! Somebody must be found who has a chance to lead Malaysia, who could toe the US/Europe line. Then Anwar came around. And that explains the bottomless pocket.
The candidates.
I had put my trust in Najib when he took a long time to pick the "winnable" candidates for UMNO. The MCA and MIC candidates were made known earlier and I suspect Najib didn't interfere much.
Now I'm not so sure that the extra time that Najib had taken had been put to good use - to check the background etc.
I say this because the original DUN candidate for Johol had pulled out 2 days ago, and a divisional member had to be found in a hurry. Apparently the first choice was a Seremban man with a second wife from Johol, and several operations rooms had been promptly closed when he was picked. When the MB's appointed representative came with the candidate to Johol to try and pacify things, he was told-off in no uncertain terms. There were also noises heard on the Puteri candidate for Sikamat. And today Yunus said 'phone videos of her have started to circulate. BN lost in Sikamat the last time. The Seremban Parliamentry candidate from MCA is a known controversial figure leading one of two MCA factions in the state. MCA might lose this seat. Again. The Felda settlers in Palong are also questioning the picking up of a non-settler candidate this time around. Jempol Parliament is being contested by a former holder as well as a former MB. They're also asking why no local candidate has been found. The controversial IPO of Felda and the obvious politics surrounding the new chairman might return to haunt the campaigning. The return of the previous holder for the Lenggeng state seat is said to have his work cut out because of his interference in the last election there. Today there is also talk about imminent legal action on some financial transaction. And Linggi state seat is also said to be contested by an "outsider" who may find acceptance not that easy to get.
Nationally, the case of the Deputy Wanita not being picked, for that troublesome state of Perak, may prove costly to Najib. The former Wanita Chief has lambasted this Deputy Wanita person for "putting self before party." In the tradition of her best condescending style she also did not waste the chance to insult her publicly, just when UMNO can least afford to show any signs of the obnoxious behaviour of its leaders.
Allocations.
"Kerbau ditambat diberi makan, orang berkerja diberi upah."
A lot of money is involved in these elections. Before you criticise, just look at the USA.
The organization right down to the PDM has long been functional. But the funds have not trickle down evenly. Some have got prompt imbursement, some have not received anything. This is the sad part. Obviously from the top, the imbursements have been made. But some people are hanging on to things when they shouldn't. That could stall things, and we're talking of days now.
The result.
My take is that the populist actions, especially in the last two years could swing important votes for BN. But the bad choice of candidates could neutralise the good work, and BN once again might have to redo its act. Najib can convince himself that he has done enough. The voter has to remain convinced. At least until the 5th.
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