Papers by Umar Yusuf Madaki
Gadau Journal of Pure and Allied Sciences
Infant Mortality Rates (IMR) are important indicators of health status of any country. This resea... more Infant Mortality Rates (IMR) are important indicators of health status of any country. This research presents Time Series Analysis using Exponential Smoothing and Moving Averages (MA). Six years data on infant mortality covering 2016 to 2021 was obtained from Yobe State Specialist Hospital Damaturu. We used Single Exponential Smoothing, which at =2, the model showed a smoothed trend of infant mortality over the period of 72 months. A forecast made based on this smoothed trend indicated a constant rate of infant mortality over the period of 8 months with MAPE = 17.9165, MAD = 4.5133 and MSD = 30.2982. We also studied nature of trend using Moving Averages (MA) and forecast made at length = 4 showed a constant rate of forecast over the period of 8 months with MAPE = 19.3504, MAD = 4.8377, and MSD = 34.1556. Based on the three accuracy measures, single exponential smoothing method presented a better fit to the data. Highest infant mortality was observed in 2021 with total death of 331 w...
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, 2022
Aims / Objectives: Typhoid fever is a threat to human race and perhaps not much research is condu... more Aims / Objectives: Typhoid fever is a threat to human race and perhaps not much research is conducted towards mitigating it menace in Yobe State. A classical epidemic model SIR is deployed into GLEaMviz software to simulate typhoid spread and spatially analysed the trend. Study Design: Computational modeling and simulation. Place and Duration of Study: Computational Laboratory, Department of Mathematics and Statistics Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The duration of the study is between May 2021 and December 2021. Methodology: SIR epidemic model was used to simulate typhoid spread and time series model was explored to investigate the disease trend. Results: The model predicts mild seasonal fluctuations in the trend which coincides with rainy season. The agents causing the disease transmission is possibly being transported through flowing water. Conclusion: A mild seasonality is present in the fluctuations of the trend of typhoid, hence the pattern shows strong evidence of p...
Gadau Journal of Pure and Allied Sciences
A model for bacterial meningitis was created by adding a class of transporters to the basic Susce... more A model for bacterial meningitis was created by adding a class of transporters to the basic Susceptible Carrier Infected and Recovered (SCIR) model, since vaccination and treatment are the best methods of controlling the transmission of most overpowering sicknesses. Immunization assists helpless people with building either a drawn out invulnerability or transient resistance while treatment decreases the quantity of sickness actuated passing and the quantity of irresistible people locally or country. This study comprises of a mathematical model for bacterial meningitis dynamics that can be used to a wide range of mathematical modeling problems. In this exploration, a nonlinear deterministic model with time reliance controls has been proposed to depict the elements of bacterial meningitis in a populace. We discovered that the (EEP) and (DFE) are locally asymptotically stable in our study. We now advise the researcher to determine whether it is globally asymptotically stable in order t...
Journal of Science and Technology
In statistical models for censored survival data which includes a proportion of individuals who a... more In statistical models for censored survival data which includes a proportion of individuals who are not subject to the event of interest under study are known as the long-term survival cured models. It has two most adopted and common models used in estimating the cure fraction namely: the mixture (standard cure) and the non-mixture models. In this research work, we introduce a Bayesian approach using the two models for survival data based on the Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution with six parameters and compared with two existing models: beta-Weibull and beta-generalized exponential distributions in analyzing a real-life dataset. The proposed approach allows the inclusion of covariates in the model. The parameter estimation was obtained by maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis methods. The win Bugs and MCMC pack library in R softwares were employed for the Gibbs sampling algorithm in other to obtain the posterior summaries of interest and also the trace plots by the applyi...
Original Research Article Despite the fact that HIV/AIDS can be contacted through casual contact,... more Original Research Article Despite the fact that HIV/AIDS can be contacted through casual contact, sexual intercourse, blood transmission, using razor blend, are still stigmatized in the society. In this research work, the application of first order linear differential equation in the spread of HIV/AIDs obtained using logistic model variable method, It has been discovered that the concept of each year a large number of people all over the world die from HIV/AIDS. Although there are many complicating factors behind the spread of HIV, we still believe that relevant mathematical models can provide a good insight of the dynamics of the spread of it. If we can provide a satisfactory profile of this dynamics, it will certainly help government officials to make timely remedial actions. In the present work, we have established mathematical and logistic models of epidemiology for the spread of HIV. We have made a search for equilibrium points for the system and discussed about their stabilities. Efforts have been made to find the solution of the proposed system. Based on extensive analysis relevant comments are made on mutual coexistence of the group infected by HIV and the group not infected by that. To enlighten the public on how to avoid discrimination and stigmatization of people who are living with HIV/AIDS using mathematical model.
Discriminant analysis was introduced by [5] as a statistical method for separating two groups of ... more Discriminant analysis was introduced by [5] as a statistical method for separating two groups of populations [4]. Extended this multivariate technique to multiple populations. At the basis of observations with known group membership–the training data–so-called discriminant functions are constructed aiming at separating the groups as much as possible. These discriminant functions can then used for classifying new observations to one of the populations. We distinguish linear and quadratic discriminant analysis, and this terminology refers to the discriminant function that is to build. In this case, we focus on Fisher’s method (for two or more populations) leading to linear discriminant functions [6]. The problem can formulate as a simple eigenvector/Eigenvalues problem, and the plan is attractive and frequently used in practice. The discriminant analysis used in situations where the clusters are known a priori.
International Journal of Innovative Research and Development, 2018
In this research we investigated the incidence of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia among Infants using ... more In this research we investigated the incidence of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia among Infants using modeling approach. The data used were obtained from
Lviv University Herald. Series: Psychological sciences, 2021
У статті наведено результати емпіричного дослідження, спрямованого на вивчення особливостей розви... more У статті наведено результати емпіричного дослідження, спрямованого на вивчення особливостей розвитку емоційного інтелекту дітей молодшого підліткового віку порівняно з розвитком емоційного інтелекту їх батьків. Викладено теоретичні основи розуміння поняття «емоційний інтелект» у психології та обґрунтовано необхідність дослідження його розвитку в онтогенезі. Проведене автором дослідження дітей підліткового віку та їх батьків, які проживають в Одеський області, виявило певний рівень розвитку їх емоційного інтелекту. Досліджено кореляційні закономірності, встановлено наявність відмінностей між корелятами, що пояснюють здібності емоційного інтелекту дітей молодшого підліткового віку та їх батьків. Під час порівняльного аналізу результатів основна увага приділялася співвідношенню комбінацій показників емоційного інтелекту та їх розбіжностей у вибірці дітей та батьків. Розбіжності встановлено за такими показниками: міжособистісного, внутрішнього особистісного емоційного інтелекту, загального емоційного інтелекту, розуміння емоцій, управління емоціями, розуміння чужих емоцій. Показники розуміння своїх емоцій та управління власними емоціями краще виражені в батьків, ніж у дітей, а за показником контроль експресії-у дітей, ніж у батьків. З'ясовано, що рівень розвитку емоційного інтелекту залежить від віку та емоційного й життєвого досвіду. У нашому випадку в батьків він вище, ніж у дітей. У молодшому підлітковому віці структурні компоненти емоційного інтелекту розвиваються нерівномірно, випереджає міжособистісний емоційний інтелект (розуміння та керування чужими емоціями), внутрішній особистісний інтелект (розуміння та керування власними емоціями) відстає. Серед основних агентів соціального впливу на рівень розвитку емоційного інтелекту на цьому етапі онтогенезу все ще залишаються батьки. Ключові слова: емоційний інтелект, міжособистісний емоційний інтелект, внутрішньоособистісний емоційний інтелект, молодший підліток, батьки.
American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 2014
We proposed a so-called Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution which gives the extension of th... more We proposed a so-called Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution which gives the extension of the Kumaraswamy-G class of family distribution. Some properties of this proposed model were provided, like: the expansion of densities and quantile function. We considered the Bayes and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the parameters and also simulate the model parameters to validate the methods based on different set of true values. Some real data sets were employed to show the usefulness and flexibility of the model which serves as generalization to many sub-models in the field of engineering, medical, survival and reliability analysis.
Journal of Infectious Diseases & Case Reports
Malaria was declared an emergency in Nigeria and strategies for the control of Malaria in Nigeria... more Malaria was declared an emergency in Nigeria and strategies for the control of Malaria in Nigeria were adopted to reduce its prevalence to a level at which the disease will no longer constitute public health problems. In this work, we presented a deterministic (Ross–Macdonald model susceptible, expose/ infected, infectious and recovered) model incorporating the method of control adopted by national Malaria and leprosy control program. We established the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states and carried out the stability analysis of the disease. Free and the equilibrium state. We also carried out numerical simulation of the model to have an insight into the dynamics of the model. We found out that the disease free equilibrium state is stable. The feedback dynamics from mosquito to human and back to mosquito involve considerable time due to the incubation periods of the parasites. In this paper, taking explicit account of the incubation periods of parasites within the human ...
Scholars Journal of Physics, Mathematics and Statistics
Original Research Article Chickenpox was declared an emergency in Nigeria and strategies for the ... more Original Research Article Chickenpox was declared an emergency in Nigeria and strategies for the control of chickenpox in Nigeria were adopted to reduce its prevalence to a level at which the disease will no longer constitute public health problems. In this work, we presented a deterministic (SEIR susceptible, expose/latently infected, infectious and recovered) model incorporating the method of control adopted by national chickenpox and leprosy control program. We established the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states and carried out the stability analysis of the disease. Free and the equilibrium state of the model to have an insight into the dynamics of the model. We found out that the disease free equilibrium state is stable. The numerical results showed that it would be very difficult to completely eradicate chickenpox from Damaturu-Yobe and the country Nigeria at large.
Scholars Journal of Physics, Mathematics and Statistics
Original Research Article Population is a central issue affecting both physical and social enviro... more Original Research Article Population is a central issue affecting both physical and social environment. As the population of a community increases, there is greater inevitable pressure of demands on the environment. When the rate of population growth increases, the pressure on the natural sources, particularly basics needs like food and water increases. For effective allocation of limited available resources in any given community, it is important to know the population of that community. This will help the government in its community development planning. This project examined two major models (Malthusian model and Logistic model) for projecting population growth of a given community, and determined the model that best fit Damaturu local Government area of Yobe State within the period of 2009-2018. The logistic model considered being best model for population projection; the analysis shows that Njiwaji/Gwange ward has the highest growth rate of 0.0758 and the percentage increase within the range of 5.47%-6.70% for the period under study. While, Bindigari/Pawari ward has the lowest growth rate of 0.09834 with of each ward in the study area, with the percentage increase within the range of 7.09%-8.76% for the period under study. Therefore, logistic model should be employed for continuous projections of the population for proper appropriation of limited available resources.
Scholars Journal of Physics, Mathematics and Statistics
Original Research Article Based on the findings so far, HAM generates series which converge speed... more Original Research Article Based on the findings so far, HAM generates series which converge speedily after some iteration. The epidemic has set up affecting the positive fraction of the community host with as average of 996 infected person daily. The epidemic level was slow in the first place but later it increases exponentially indicating a sign of danger to the said community of host. Sequel to the finding obtained in this study it is obvious that the results obtained have depicted the number of people likely to be infected over a period of time and make a reasonable for best of how many people to be infected in a certain time to enable a proper decision and supply in case of an outbreak (measles) like this in a given society of host with known population number. Although the study has not make it to our consumption the death that occurred since inception of the epidemic the number of recovered people and the inclining and declining, in the trend of their immune system during measles when on treatment. Further study could be conducted by any interested candidate to make clarification of these not known parameter enlisted above by the study.
Scholars Journal of Physics, Mathematics and Statistics
Original Research Article Tuberculosis was declared an emergency in Nigeria and strategies for th... more Original Research Article Tuberculosis was declared an emergency in Nigeria and strategies for the control of tuberculosis in Nigeria were adopted to reduce its prevalence to a level at which the disease will no longer constitute public health problems. In this work, we presented a deterministic (SEIR susceptible, expose/latently infected, infectious and recovered) model incorporating the method of control adopted by national tuberculosis and leprosy control program. We established the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states and carried out the stability analysis of the disease. Free and the equilibrium state. We also carried out numerical simulation of the model to have an insight into the dynamics of the model. We found out that the disease free equilibrium state is stable. The numerical results showed that it would be very difficult to completely eradicate tuberculosis from Nigeria using the method adopted by national tuberculosis and leprosy control program.
This paper assesses the study that was carried out based on the broad objective of using the mult... more This paper assesses the study that was carried out based on the broad objective of using the multivariate discriminant model for tackling diabetic patients among adults in Maiduguri, Borno state. In this research work a data was collected from the University of Maiduguri teaching hospital for ten (10) consecutive years from (2002-2011) of 987 patients. The data analyses were done using Fisher's method and Omnibus Chi-Square test. The Diabetic patient's responses are categorized into two groups which include: Healthy ("0") and Diabetic ("1"). Various variables (predictors) i.e., Age, Sex, Weight, Blood sugar and Urine sugar are used based on discriminant analysis. Using Fisher's method of discriminant analysis, classification table that we got by selecting that option in the results obtained. The Overall % correctly classified = 88.2% for the male counterparts and 89.4% for the female counterparts. By relating actual groups to predicted groups percentage correct predictions without percentage correct predictions and cross validation. In addition to that, the omnibus Chi-square test is a log-likelihood ratio test for investigating the Discriminant model coefficients (Age and Sex). The model coefficients are statistically significant as we reject H0 if p<0.05 at the 5% level of significance. The study concluded that Base on the analysis it shows female are mostly affected by the disease and the kinds of misclassification that took place. It is also recommended that the Discriminant model built should be used for capable of tackling diabetes mellitus cases in (UMTH), Maiduguri, Borno state.
Present research paper envisages investigation of the incidence and prevalence of Broncho-Pulmona... more Present research paper envisages investigation of the incidence and prevalence of Broncho-Pulmonary Dysplasia among infants in UMTH and UDUS Hospitals in Maidguri, Nigeria. The data used in this research paper were obtained from the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital (UMTH), Maiduguri and Usmanu Danfodiyo University Teaching Hospital Sokoto with sample size of Seventy (70) patients in 2014; Fifty (50) patients from Maiduguri and Twenty (20) from Sokoto respectively. Discriminant analysis model was employed for the analysis with the help of SPSS. The result of the analysis indicates that discriminant model has a perfect classification of new cases in Maiduguri while it has misclassified one of five new cases in Sokoto. This result suggests that the prediction of Broncho-Pulmonary Dysplasia (BPD) is better done with discriminant model in Maiduguri. The study recommends that Doctors and Clinics should adopt the use of the models built by this research to detect the prevalence of BPD among infants.
Present research paper envisages investigation of the incidence and prevalence of Broncho-Pulmona... more Present research paper envisages investigation of the incidence and prevalence of Broncho-Pulmonary Dysplasia among infants in UMTH and UDUS Hospitals in Maidguri, Nigeria. The data used in this research paper were obtained from the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital (UMTH), Maiduguri and Usmanu Danfodiyo University Teaching Hospital Sokoto with sample size of Seventy (70) patients in 2014; Fifty (50) patients from Maiduguri and Twenty (20) from Sokoto respectively. Discriminant analysis model was employed for the analysis with the help of SPSS. The result of the analysis indicates that discriminant model has a perfect classification of new cases in Maiduguri while it has misclassified one of five new cases in Sokoto. This result suggests that the prediction of Broncho–Pulmonary Dysplasia (BPD) is better done with discriminant model in Maiduguri. The study recommends that Doctors and Clinics should adopt the use of the models built by this research to detect the prevalence of BPD among infants.
Uploads
Papers by Umar Yusuf Madaki