Threat Assessment

Threat Assessment
Presented
by:
Insp. Umesh Gurung Shrestha
Basic
Concepts
Threat
Discussion
Assessment
Process
Basic Concepts
Risk Danger Hazard
Vulnerabilit
Crisis Threat
y
Disaster
Basic Concepts
Risk=Threat×Vulnerability
The potential for loss, damage, or any other undesirable event resulting from the
interaction between a threat and vulnerability.
Components:
Likelihood: The probability of an event occurring.
Impact: The potential consequences or severity of the event.
Basic Concepts
Threat
Any circumstance or event with the potential to cause harm to people, property,
or the environment.
Characteristics:
Source:
Origin from which the threat emanates (e.g., natural disasters, criminal
activities).
Nature:
The type and characteristics of the threat (e.g., physical, cyber, biological).
Basic Concepts
Vulnerability
A weakness or gap in protection efforts that can be exploited by a threat to cause

harm or damage
Characteristics:
Exposure:
The extent to which a system or entity is exposed to threats.
Susceptibility:
The level of susceptibility to damage when exposed to a threat.
Basic Concepts
Threat
[Intention]
Asset
Vulnerability [Target]
[Weakness]
Risk
Basic Concepts
Categories of Threats
Accidental
Natural Man-made
threats:
Threats: threats: Environmental
Industrial
Earthquakes, Terrorism, Threats:
accidents,
floods, cyberattacks, Climate change
infrastructure
landslides organized crime
failures
Threat
Assessment
A systematic process to
Objective:
identify and evaluate
To understand the threat
potential threats to
landscape, prioritize
determine their severity,
threats based on risk, and
likelihood, and potential
inform mitigation strategies.
impact.
Evaluation of threats that

can result in harm or Predictive in nature
destruction to the asset
Bases of Threat
Assessment
Intention
Capability
Knowledge
Resources
Threat Assessment
Process
Assess
Identify Analyze
Vulnerabilit
Threats Threats
ies
Prioritize Evaluate
Threats Risks
Identify Threats
Gather information on
threats from various
Determine actual,
sources (e.g.,
inherent and potential
intelligence reports,
threats.
historical data, expert
consultations).
Threat Analysis and
Profiling
Evaluate the likelihood Realistically assess the

and potential impact intentions and
of each threat. capabilities of threats
Assess Vulnerabilities
Identify
Identify defects or
weaknesses that Situational
lapses in the
could be exploited Prevention
security system
by threats.
Evaluate Risks
Determine the overall

risk by combining
Depends on Intent and
threat likelihood and
Capability
impact with identified
vulnerabilities.
Threat Assessment Matrix
Intent
Capability
Low Expressed Determined
Low Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat
Moderate Low Threat High Threat Very High Threat
Extensive Medium Threat Very High Threat Extreme Threat

Prioritize Threats
Rank threats based on

Selection of
their assessed risk to
appropriate prevention
prioritize resource
and mitigation
allocation and
measures
mitigation efforts.
Scenario: Election Security
Vulnerability:
Risk:
Threat: High population
Potential for
Political unrest density in urban
violence, property
during election areas, inadequate
damage, and loss
periods. crowd control
of life.
measures.
Assessment Process
Assess
Identify Analyze Vulnerabiliti Prioritize
Threats: Threats: es: Identify Evaluate Threats:
Monitor Evaluate the areas with Risks: Assess Focus on
political likelihood of high potential high-risk
activities and unrest based population impact on areas and
historical on current density and public safety periods of
patterns of socio-political critical and property. heightened
unrest. climate. infrastructure tension.
.
Mitigation Plan
Develop Strategies: Implement Measures:

Monitor and Review:
Increase police Deploy additional
Continuously assess the
presence, establish resources to high-risk
situation, adjust
communication areas, conduct crowd
resource allocation, and
channels with political control training, and set
review the effectiveness
leaders, and plan for up emergency response
of measures post-event.
rapid response. units.
Practical Implications
Preparedness: Public Confidence:

Enhanced readiness to Resource Allocation: Increased trust in law
respond to potential Efficient use of enforcement through
threats, reducing the resources by prioritizing proactive threat
likelihood of escalation high-risk threats. management and
and harm. effective response
Thank You!

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Threat Assessment

Risk Danger Hazard

A weakness or gap in protection efforts that can be exploited by a threat to cause

Evaluation of threats that

Evaluate the likelihood Realistically assess the

Determine the overall

Low Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat

Moderate Low Threat High Threat Very High Threat

Extensive Medium Threat Very High Threat Extreme Threat

Rank threats based on

Develop Strategies: Implement Measures:

Preparedness: Public Confidence:

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