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Risk and the Risk Management Process
Risks are the opportunities and dangers
associated with uncertain future events. Risks can have an adverse ('downside exposure') or favourable impact ('upside potential') on the organisation’s objectives. Believe in “Murphy’s Law”: Everything that can go wrong will go wrong! Why Manage Risk Management needs to manage and monitor risk on an ongoing basis for a number of reasons: To identify new risks that may affect the company so an appropriate risk management strategy can be determined. To identify changes to existing or known risks so amendments to the risk management strategy can be made.. To ensure that the best use is made of opportunities. Risk Management Risk management is therefore the process of reducing the possibility of adverse consequences either by reducing the likelihood of an event or its impact, or taking advantage of the upside risk. Management are responsible for establishing a risk management system in an organisation. Risk Management Process Risk Identification Strategic Risks Risks arising from the possible consequences of strategic decisions taken by the organisation. Also arise from the way that an organisation is strategically positioned within its environment. Should be identified and assessed at senior management and board or director level. Operational Risks Refer to potential losses that might arise in business operations Include risks of fraud or employee malfeasance, poor quality production or lack of inputs for production Can be managed by internal control systems. Types of Risks Types of Risks Market risks. Risks which derive from the sector in which the business is operating, and from its customers. Product risk. The risk that customers will not buy new products (or services) provided by the organisation, or that the sales demand for current products and services will decline unexpectedly. Commodity price risk. Businesses might be exposed to risks from unexpected increases (or falls) in the price of a key commodity. Product reputation risk. Some companies rely heavily on brand image and product reputation, and an adverse event could put its reputation (and so future sales) at risk. Credit risk. Credit risk is the possibility of losses due to non payment, or late payment, by customers. Political risk. Political risk depends to a large extent on the political stability in the countries in which an organisation operates and the attitudes of governments towards protectionism. Legal, or litigation risk arises from the possibility of legal action being taken against an organisation. Regulatory risk arises from the possibility that regulations will affect the way an organisation has to operate. Compliance risk is the risk of losses, possibly fines, resulting from noncompliance with laws or regulations. Technology risk arises from the possibility that technological change will occur. Economic risk refers to the risks facing organisations from changes in economic conditions, such as economic growth or recession, government spending policy and taxation policy, unemployment levels and international trading conditions. Environmental risk arises from changes to the environment over which an organisation has no direct control or for occurrences for which the organisation might be responsible. Business probity risk is related to the governance and ethics of the organisation. Assessing Risks • Risks with a significant impact and a high likelihood of occurrence need more urgent attention than risks with a low impact and low likelihood of occurrence • The severity of a risk can also be discussed in terms of 'hazard'. The higher the hazard or impact of the risk, the more severe it is. Risk Planning The board of an organisation plays an important role in risk management. It considers risk at the strategic level and defines the organisation’s appetite and approach to risk. The board is responsible for driving the risk management process and ensuring that managers responsible for implementing risk management have adequate resources. The board ensures that the risk management strategy is communicated to the rest of the organisation and integrated with all the other activities. The board reviews risks and identifies and monitors progress of the risk management plans. • The board will determine which risks will be accepted which cannot be managed The board will generally delegate these activities to a risk committee Risk Awareness Risk Monitoring Risk monitoring is a systematic way of understanding the risks that an organisation faces Risk auditing assists the overall risk monitoring activity (last step in the risk management process) by providing an independent view of risks and controls in an organisation. As with any audit situation, a fresh pair of eyes may identify errors or omissions in the original risk monitoring process. Following review, internal and external audit can make recommendations to amend the risk management system or controls as necessary. Risk Management Strategies Risk Avoidance and Retention Risk avoidance: the risk strategy by which the organisation literally avoids a risk by not undertaking the activity that gives rise to the risk in the first place. Risk retention: risk strategy by which an organisation retains that particular risk within the organisation – This is a similar concept to risk acceptance Risk Reduction Risk can be reduced by diversifying into operations in different areas. Poor performance in one area will be offset by good performance in another area, so diversification will reduce total risk. Diversification is based on the idea of ‘spreading the risk’; the total risk should be reduced as the portfolio of diversified businesses gets larger. Diversification works best where returns from different businesses are negatively correlated (i.e. move in different ways). Transference • Risk is transferred wholly or in part to a third party, so that if an adverse event occurs, the third party suffers all or most of the loss • All businesses arrange a wide range of insurance policies for protection against possible losses.