Environment and Sustainability Class V

Environnement and
Sustainability
Climate Change
Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

Summary
• The concept of global warming refers to a sustainable
increase of the planet average temperature. Additionally
to the average sea level which has increased by more than
15 cm since 1900, numerous other indicators illustrate
this warming.
• The conclusions of the scientific community and notably
of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
meet general consensus on the causes of climate change.
The natural climate balance is disrupted by anthropogenic
GreenHouseGaz emissions. The CO2 atmospheric
concentration – the main GHG – has increased by more
than 40 % since 1750. Projections show that global
warming could have a severe impact on sea levels and
crop yields in the future.
This lecture will help you understand:
• Earth’s climate
• Human influences on the
atmosphere and climate
• Methods of climate
research
• Current and potential
impacts of climate change
• Scientific, economic, and
political debate on climate
change
• Potential responses
Central Case: Rising Temperatures and Seas
May Take the Maldives Under
• 80% of this island nation’s land is <1 m above water.

• Globally warming temperatures are causing sea levels to
rise worldwide, endangering many island nations.
• The 2004 tsunami (tidal wave) hit the Maldives hard.
Climate and climate change
• Climate = a region’s long-term pattern of atmospheric

conditions
• Global climate change = changes in Earth’s climate,

including temperature, precipitation, and other variables
• Global warming = an increase in Earth’s average surface

temperature
• Climate changes naturally, but the recent rapid warming

of the planet and its change in atmospheric composition
are widely thought to be due to human activities.
Climate or weather?
• Meteorology is the study of the processes and

phenomena of the atmosphere, especially as a means of
forecasting the weather. Forecasts longer than 10 days
make no sense because the state of the atmosphere on a
given day and at a given location depends on the initial
conditions. This is because of the chaotic nature of
atmospheric circulation.
• In contrast, climatology studies the average state of the

atmosphere and oceans on large time scales and the
physical processes that are relevant over the long term.
For that, the initial conditions don’t really matter.
Climate or weather?
• “Boundary conditions” are important as they determine
the average statistical state of the atmosphere – its
climate.
• Take for example the the amount of energy that the sun sends to
Earth: it is higher in June than in December (both are extremes).
In spite of the chaotic character of atmospheric circulation –
which makes it possible, although rarely, for a particular day in
December to be warmer than in July – the sun’s “forcing”
underlies the annual cycle of temperaures.
• Weather is the state of the atmosphere at a given time and

place, and is subject to changes from hour to hour and day
to day. Climate, however, generally refers to the statistical
description of meteorology over a decade or longer.
What sets climate apart from weather ?
• The time scale, which is around a week for meteorology,

ranges from a decade, a century or even thousands or
millions of years when turning to the past for
climatology.
• To illustrate the difference between weather forecasting

and climate projections, this analogy by Valérie Masson-
Delmotte is quite interesting:

Climate and weather

Factors that influence climate
Three factors influence Earth’s climate more than all others
combined:
1.The sun, which provides most of Earth’s energy
2.The atmosphere, which both absorbs energy from the

sun and reflects it back into space
3. The oceans, which stores and transports heat and

moisture

Greenhouse gases
• Atmospheric gases that absorb the emanating radiation

are greenhouse gases.
• By absorbing and re-emitting this radiation, they warm

Earth’s atmosphere and surface, like a greenhouse.
• This is popularly called the greenhouse effect.
• Global warming potential = the relative ability of one

molecule of a given greenhouse gas to contribute to
global warming.

Carbon dioxide
• Carbon dioxide = primary greenhouse gas
• But molecule for molecule,

• methane traps 23 times the heat of CO2
• nitrous oxide traps 296 times the heat of CO2
• HFC-23 traps 12,000 times the heat of CO2

Carbon dioxide increase
• CO2 concentration has increased 33% in the past 200

years. CO2 remain longer in the atmosphere than the
other GHG.
• It is now at its highest level in 400,000 years, and

probably 20 million years.
Carbon dioxide increase
Due mainly to:
• Burning of fossil fuels: We remove and combust carbon-

rich fuels from the ground where they have been stored
for millions of years, sending CO2 into the atmosphere.
• Deforestation: Cutting down trees, removing vegetation

from the land, decreases the sink for carbon.
absorbance of CO2 emission.

Increase of other greenhouse gases
Methane:
•Up 151% since 1750
• From fossil fuels,
landfills, cattle, rice
crops
Nitrous oxide:
• Up 17% since 1750
• From feedlots, chemical plants, auto emissions,
agricultural practices

Oceans and climate
If global warming causes enough of Greenland’s ice sheet

to melt, freshwater runoff into the north Atlantic could shut
down current and abruptly change the climate of Europe
and eastern North America.

El Niño and La Niña
The best-known interactions between oceans and climate
are El Niño and La Niña events.
In normal
conditions, winds
push warm waters
(red) to the western
Pacific Ocean.
This allows cold

water to well up from
the deep in the
eastern Pacific.

Studying climate change: Ice cores
• Ice caps and glaciers
accumulated over
thousands or millions of
years.
• They contain bubbles of

gas preserved from the time
when each layer formed.
• Scientists drill cores and

analyze the gas bubbles in
each layer to see what the
atmosphere was like then.

Studying climate change: Pollen analysis
• Scientists also drill
cores into the
sediments of ancient
lake beds.
• By identifying types
of pollen grains in
each layer, they can
tell what types of
plants were growing
there at the time.
• Sources of this type of
indirect evidence are
proxy indicators.
Studying climate change: Direct sampling
• Scientists have
recorded carbon
dioxide levels in the
atmosphere directly
since 1958, at a station
in Hawaii.
• The data show a steady

upward climb from
315 to 373 ppm.
To learn more, watch

this really good video from I
PSL which explains climate
modeling.
Studying climate change: Modeling
To predict what will happen to climate in the future,
scientists use climate models:
• Computer simulations that use known behavior of past

climate to analyze how climate should behave as
variables are changed
• Coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are

models that combine, or couple, the effects of both
atmosphere and ocean.

Today’s
highly
complex
CGCMs
incorporate
many factors
in order to
predict future
climate
changes.

Natural or anthropogenic
factors ONLY = poor fit.
BOTH types of factors =

excellent fit.
• The year 2015, with an average temperature 0.74°
over the 1961-1990 average, ranks first among the
hottest years since 1850.

Has climate always changed?
• Previous warmer climates were due to natural drivers,

which left their traces, allowing us to study them. In our
current climate, natural forcings have a relatively weak
effect.
• They do not explain in any way the observed evolution
of climatic conditions, nor their rapidity.
• Due to its fundamental role in changing atmospheric
composition and the Earth’s reflectivity, CO2, aerosols
(fine airborne particles) and human land-use affect the
Earth’s energy budget in a major way, which explains
the observed evolution.
• Le climat a-t-il vraiment toujours changé ? | Drupal (cnrs.
fr)
Climate change and the IPCC report
In 2001, the world’s climate scientists combined to produce

the single most comprehensive and authoritative research
summary on climate change aka a meta-analysis:
The Third Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
which summarized all scientific data on climate change,
future predictions (scenario, modelization, LT forcast), and
possible impacts (more and more interested in those).

IPCC : International Panel on Climate Change
• it is essential to be aware of what IPCC is, how authors
are selected to write the report, how scientific papers are
selected, who finances it, etc. If you know it already,
good for you; otherwise, read this summary.
• The IPCC provides calibrated language to estimate the
likelihood of a single event or an outcome:
1. Virtually certain (99-100% probability)
2. Very likely (90-100% probability)
3. Likely (66-100% probability)
4. About as likely as not (33 to 66% probability)
5. Unlikely (0-33% probability)
6. Very unlikely (0-10% probability)
7. Exceptionally unlikely (0-1% probability)

First, the IPCC report established that global temperature is
rising.
Direct measurements from thermometers since 1860

demonstrate this.
Proxy indicators of temperature (from pollen, ice cores,
etc.) were reviewed to establish ancient temperatures.
These data (BLUE) overlapped with the direct temperature

measurements (RED). (Gray shows statistical uncertainty.)
The IPCC report
The IPCC also reported findings on physical changes:

• Average sea level increased 10–20 centimeters (4–8
inches) during 20th century.
• 2 weeks less ice cover on northern lakes and rivers.
• Arctic sea ice thinned 10–40% in recent decades.
• Mountain glaciers melted back worldwide.
• Snow cover decreased 10% since satellite
observations began.
• Growing season lengthened 1–4 days each decade
over the past 40 years.

The IPCC report
Biological changes were also found by the IPCC:
• Geographic ranges of many species have shifted

toward the poles and up in elevation.
• In spring, plants are flowering earlier, birds migrating

earlier, animals breeding earlier, and insects emerging
earlier.
• Coral reefs are “bleaching” more frequently.

Sea-level rise
• Global warming is causing glaciers to shrink and polar

ice shelves to break away and melt.
• The increased flow of water into the oceans lead to sea
level rise.
• Sea level is also rising because ocean water is warming,
causing water to expand in volume.
• Higher sea levels lead to beach erosion, coastal flooding,
intrusion of saltwater into aquifers, etc.

Sea-level rise
• Storm surge = temporary and localized rise in sea level

caused by high tides and winds associated with storms
• Storm surges impact small islands as well as low-lying
coastal areas in countries like the U.S.
• This vulnerability became dramatically apparent in 2005
when Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans and the Gulf
Coast of the U.S.

Sea-level rise
A 51-centimeters (20-
inches) sea level rise
would inundate
wetlands (red) and
drylands (orange) on
all U.S. coasts.

Emissions reductions: International treaties
1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
• Voluntary approach; nations were asked to cut emissions
• Failed
1997: Kyoto Protocol drafted
• By 2012, reduce 6 greenhouse gases to below 1990 levels

Climate change predictions: Impacts
The IPCC and other groups have predicted future impacts
of climate change. Predictions for the U.S. include:
• Temperature will rise 3–5°C (5–9°F).
• Droughts, floods, snowpack decline, and water
shortages will create diverse problems.
• Temperature extremes will cause health problems;
tropical diseases will move north into the U.S.
• Sea level rise will flood coastal wetlands, real estate.
• Ecosystems will be altered; some will disappear.
• Agriculture and forestry may have mixed results.
« Domestic » impacts

Emissions reductions: Kyoto Protocol
Reductions
required under
Kyoto are
scaled to
nations’
contributions.
Germany
decreased
emissions
18.9% while its
economy grew
strongly.
Emissions reductions: Kyoto Protocol
• The Kyoto Protocol has been ratified by 127

nations, enough to make it binding.
• At the Cop 21 (the Paris Agreement) 195

countries, including the US and China have
ratified a new “deal”.
- Any difference?

Conclusion
• Many factors shape global climate.

• Scientists and policymakers are beginning to understand
anthropogenic climate change and its impacts more fully.
• Many scientists and policymakers are deeply concerned.
• As time passes, fewer experts are arguing that the
changes will be minor.
• Sea-level rise will affect developed and developing
countries alike.

The IPCC Report on the State of Climate (2021)

Climate and human impact
• Human influence is 100% responsible for climate
change. It is now an unequivocal fact (to understand
what radiative forcing is, read this article). We can
observe it by comparing the observed warming (a) and
human influence (b):

Climate and human impact
• Human influence is 100% responsible for climate
change. It is now an unequivocal fact (to understand
what radiative forcing is, read this article). We can
observe it by comparing the observed warming (a) and
human influence (b):

IPCC 2021
• The scale of recent changes across the climate system
as a whole – and the present state of many aspects of
the climate system – are unprecedented over many
centuries to many thousands of years.
• The global mean sea level has risen faster since 1900
than over any preceding century in at least the last
3,000 years (high confidence).
• Since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990,
1,000 billion tonnes of CO2 were emitted. This
represents almost half of the emissions since the
beginning of the industrial era.

IPCC 2021
• Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is
unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years. Recent
climate change events have increased in frequency and
intensity and have become global. The last 10 years have
been 1.1°C warmer than 1850-1900.

IPCC 2021
• Human-induced climate change is already affecting
many weather and climate extremes in every region
across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in
extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation,
droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their
attribution to human influence, has strengthened since
the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
• Improved knowledge of climate processes, paleoclimate
evidence and the response of the climate system to
increasing radiative forcing gives a best estimate
of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3°C, with a
narrower range compared to AR5.

Limiting human-induced climate change
• Limiting human-induced global warming requires

strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in CO2, methane,
and other GHGs. This will not only limit the impacts of
climate change but will also improve air quality.
• Limiting global warming to +1.5°C will only be
achievable if an immediate and large-scale reduction of
GHG emissions is executed. (See the different emissions
scenarios)
• If global net negative CO2 emissions were to be
achieved and be sustained, the global CO2-induced
surface temperature increase would be gradually
reversed (higher confidence than in previous report)
•
Limiting human induced climate change
• But other GHG emissions-induced climate changes

would be irreversible for decades, to millennia, for
instance, changes in the oceans, ice sheets, and sea
levels. Still, some changes could be slowed down, even
stopped, by limiting global warming.
• Estimated of the remaining carbon budget – a
simplified way of assessing how much CO2 can be
released before a given level of warming is reached –
have been improved since previous reports, but the
carbon budget remains broadly unchanged.

On carbon budget and carbon footprint
• Le budget et l'empreinte carbone, c'est quoi ? | Datagir

(ademe.fr)

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Environnement and

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

• 80% of this island nation’s land is <1 m above water.

• Climate = a region’s long-term pattern of atmospheric

• Global climate change = changes in Earth’s climate,

• Global warming = an increase in Earth’s average surface

• Climate changes naturally, but the recent rapid warming

• Meteorology is the study of the processes and

• In contrast, climatology studies the average state of the

• Weather is the state of the atmosphere at a given time and

• The time scale, which is around a week for meteorology,

• To illustrate the difference between weather forecasting

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

1.The sun, which provides most of Earth’s energy

2.The atmosphere, which both absorbs energy from the

3. The oceans, which stores and transports heat and

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

• Atmospheric gases that absorb the emanating radiation

• By absorbing and re-emitting this radiation, they warm

• This is popularly called the greenhouse effect.

• Global warming potential = the relative ability of one

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

• But molecule for molecule,

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

• CO2 concentration has increased 33% in the past 200

• It is now at its highest level in 400,000 years, and

Due mainly to:

• Burning of fossil fuels: We remove and combust carbon-

• Deforestation: Cutting down trees, removing vegetation

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

If global warming causes enough of Greenland’s ice sheet

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

This allows cold

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

• They contain bubbles of

• Scientists drill cores and

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

• The data show a steady

To learn more, watch

• Computer simulations that use known behavior of past

• Coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

BOTH types of factors =

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

• Previous warmer climates were due to natural drivers,

In 2001, the world’s climate scientists combined to produce

The Third Assessment Report of the

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

Direct measurements from thermometers since 1860

These data (BLUE) overlapped with the direct temperature

The IPCC also reported findings on physical changes:

Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings

Biological changes were also found by the IPCC:

• Geographic ranges of many species have shifted

• In spring, plants are flowering earlier, birds migrating

• Coral reefs are “bleaching” more frequently.