Critical Thinking and

Scientific Method
An Introduction to an Integrated Model
Critical Thinking:
“Critical thinking is the art of analyzing and evaluating thinking
with a view to improving it.” (Foundation for Critical Thinking,
2006)

Challenging assumptions; clearly and precisely formulating

questions; drawing soundly-reasoned conclusions and testing them
against relevant criteria; being open-minded with respect to
alternative forms of thought, alternative explanations and ideas;
communicating effectively with others.

Scientific reasoning is a form of critical thinking.

• Inductive reasoning is the process of reasoning that a general principle is true
because the all of the special cases you've seen, so far, are true.

• Example: if all the people you've ever met from a particular town have been
very strange, you might then say "all the residents of this town are strange".

• Deductive reasoning refers to the process of concluding that something must

be true because it is a special case of a general principle that is taken to be
true.

• Example: if you know the general principle that the sum of the angles in any
triangle is always 180 degrees, and you have a particular triangle in mind, you
can then conclude that the sum of the angles in your triangle is 180 degrees.
Inductive or Deductive?

1. If you take your medicine, you’ll feel a lot better. You take your
medicine. Therefore, you’ll feel a lot better.

2. Marin’s first three children were boys. If she has another baby, it
will be a boy.
Determine the probable next number in the sequence below. What kind
of reasoning do you use?

, ,,,,?

, ,,,,

Inductive!
Example:
3+1=4
5+7=12
9+11=20
13+13=26

Inductive Reasoning: the sum of two odd numbers is even. This

claim is based on inductive reasoning. A poor reason to believe
something. However deductive reasoning is a good reason to believe.
Example:
3+1=4
5+7=12
9+11=20
13+13=26
Proof:
All evens are divisible by 2. so we can write an even number as 2m
where m is an integer.
Evens: 2m
Odds: 2m+1
(2m+1)+(2m+1) = 2m+2m+2
=2(m+m+1) which is an even number by definition
Falsification in Science
• The concept was introduced by the philosopher of science Karl
Popper. He saw falsifiability as the logical part and the cornerstone
of his scientific epistemology, which sets the limits of scientific
inquiry.

• He proposed that statements and theories that are not falsifiable are
unscientific.
Falsifiability in Science
Example: A Danish study of more than half a million
children
p: MMR vaccine causes autism
q: greater rate of autism among children vaccinated.

If MMR vaccine causes autism then there is a greater rate of autism

among children vaccinated.
There is not a greater rate of autism among children vaccinated.
Therefore, MMR vaccines do not cause autism.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1124634/
Scientific Method

The Scientific Method, then, isn’t a set of procedures for designing

experiments or carrying out studies as is commonly supposed.

The Scientific Method is really a discipline of critical thinking that

subjects ideas to review and independent repetition in order to reduce
the level of uncertainty we may have about how the physical world
works.

Some areas of science can be more easily tested than others

Scientific Method
Even though the scientific method is usually shown as a series of steps, keep
in mind that new information or thinking might cause a scientist to back up
and repeat steps at any point during the process. The scientific methodology is
not a linear series of steps.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
 Scientific Method
For example, scientists studying how dinosaurs digested their food cannot run
medical exams on feeding dinosaurs to test their hypotheses.

When direct experimentation is not possible, scientists

modify their scientific method.

In fact, there are probably as many versions of the

https://www.newdinosaurs.com/what-did-dinosaurs-eat/

scientific method as there are scientists!

Scientific Method
Observation: collecting and being curious about data or observations and
seeing a question or a problem – being curious - how, why? (This is part of
inductive reasoning – working from particular examples and supposing a more
general principle must be true.) The observations lead to questions that need to
be answered to satisfy curiosity.

Construct a Hypothesis: A hypothesis is an educated guess about how things

work. This would be the premise or premises – the beginning of deductive
reasoning – and making a prediction - something that can be tested.

Hypothesis is an attempt to answer your question with an explanation that can

be tested. Hypotheses are developed through background research. A hypothesis
has to be testable and it has to be falsifiable.
Scientific Method
Designing an experiment: collecting data, observations (these results are
statements in the formal argument) The hypothesis must be properly tested in
order for the experiment to be logically valid.

Examining and interpreting: drawing a conclusion from the results

Evaluating: evaluating the results in the context of the hypothesis – the

prediction made – was the original premise shown to be not true in the light of
the experiment or study? If not shown to be ‘not true’, the original premise is
taken to be true – so far as we now know.

Peer review, evaluation, publication: the work can now be examined and
tested by others. The hypothesis will either be shown to be not true or not ‘not
true’ (i.e., continues to be true as far as we know).
Scientific Method

Science does not ‘prove’ things to be true. Science can

only show things to be ‘not true’ or can fail to show they
are ‘not true’.

This is why science is all about falsification. Failure to

show something is ‘not true’ is not equivalent to proving
that the something in question is true. Science can reduce
the uncertainty in our knowledge.
Theory:
Ultimately, with many amounts of experiments and studies on a particular
hypothesis and failure to show the hypothesis to be ‘not true’, the hypothesis
may come to be known as a theory.

A theory is a proposed explanation of observed phenomena. A theory is a

proposed explanation for complex behavior of any part of the physical world
around us.

Theories are developed in a way consistent with the scientific method, which is
ultimately based on the rules of logic and the principles of sound reasoning.

If the premises are true according to all experience so far, and the evidence has
been properly collected and logically analyzed according to experience so far,
then a theory can be proposed to explain the evidence.
Law:

If a theory has stood the test of time and has never been shown to be a
false explanation despite enormous amounts of evidence being
analyzed, that theory may well become a law.

The ‘law of gravity’ was once a theory. The ‘laws of thermodynamics’

were once theories. These laws do not mean science has proven it to
be ‘true’, it means that centuries of robust science has never shown it
to be ‘not true’.
Falsifiability in Science

Karl Popper proposed that statements and theories that are

not falsifiable are unscientific.

pq
~q
\ ~p
A Changing Theory
The word theory in science is generally reserved for those explanations that after
numerous tests of an idea, have never been shown to be false. So a ‘theory’ is a fairly
robust explanation; but a theory is not infallible!

Theories evolve and can even be completely discredited in the face of new evidence. A
perfect example is our present-day knowledge of the structure and behavior of the
planet earth.

One way to help understand how theories develop and change over time is to examine
the work of Alfred Wegener who used geological and biological evidence to
challenge the existing belief of the time, and proposed the theory of Continental
Drift.
Alfred Wegener
His first casual observation was that
continents seemed to fit together like a
jigsaw puzzle, especially Africa and
South America.

research showed a seaming coincidence

of similar fossils and similar geologic
materials that matched one another, but
on continents now thousands of
kilometers apart

http://giantsofscience.weebly.com/alfred-wegener.html
https://evolution.berkeley.edu/history/biogeography2.shtml
Wegener also noted papers that indicated a reptile fossil, the
Mesosaurus that was found in eastern South America and western
Africa as though its roughly circular range had been sliced in half
and separated. If South America and Africa were placed together in
jigsaw puzzle fashion, the range boundaries of Mesosaurus would
align
Leading hypotheses at the time suggested a few possibilities
to explain these fossil phenomena:

1) there was a large contiguous land bridge that later

subsided,
2) stepping stone islands allowed access across the oceans,
or
3) a ‘rafting event’ had carried Mesosaurus and other
fossils back and forth.
Similar geological materials provided evidence for Wegener’s theory.
A. These mountain ranges on different continents are comparable in
age and structure.
B. Prior to continental movement, these mountains aligned in one
contiguous range.
Wegener suggested that continents were moving apart at tens of meters per year
versus only a few centimeters.

Hence, the continents were ‘drifting’ or ‘plowing’ across the oceans. With no
understanding of the mechanism that would or even could move the continents,
Wegener suggested that tides and lunar pull had been the mechanism that was
shifting the landmasses. This suggestion was criticized at the time, with good
reason.

But Wegener had more evidence to support his theory of continental drift.
Weather patterns lead him to investigate paleoclimatic data.

In the winter of 1930, Wegener died. After his death, the idea of “Continental
Drift” was quietly put on the shelf while the scientific community looked
elsewhere for plausible explanations.
 What evidence did Wegener have for continental drift?
1) Well…the continents fit together.
2) Fossils of a cold climate plant
are also presently found in warm
climates. (Glossopteris)
3) The range of a reptile fossil
was split over continents.
(Mesosaurus)
public domain

4) Geologic features seem split Mesosaurus Fossil

across the continents
(Appalachian Mountains in
North America, and Caldonian FunkMonk (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Mountains in British Isles/Norway)

5) Greenland and Europe were measured to be moving apart
(though Wegener’s calculations were a bit off)
6) There was evidence for ice-sheets on land near the equator.
Development of a New Theory
• Interestingly, Wegener’s original hypothesis was born out of
WWI and this idea was revived only after technical advances
from WWII.

• In the 1930s, the field of seismology suggested that the crust of

the earth was in fact ‘floating’ on various internal layers, some of
which are less than solid. There was no evidence to support these
ideas until WWII when the US Navy began conducting seafloor
mapping (through echo-sounding) during their voyages to
various battles in the Pacific Ocean.
Development of a New Theory
• Throughout the 1950s, oceans were being further mapped with
the help of magnetometers.

• Because oceanic crust is largely basalt and basalt has high levels
of magnetite in it, measurements could be related to the magnetic
properties of the sea-floor.

• As magma cools, the magnetite aligns with the earth’s magnetic

field and the rocks contain distinct geomagnetic striping; a kind
of geologic fingerprint.
Development of a New Theory
Geomagnetic reversal, where the earth’s magnetic field shifts
poles such that north becomes south and south becomes north, had
already been recognized.

However as data accumulated, there was a discernible pattern of

magnetic striping across the sea floor. From the middle of the
Atlantic Ocean to the shores of North America for example, there
was a clear pattern of magnetic striping that was a mirror image to
the opposite side of the ocean floor.
1) Seafloor spreading
- geomagnetic striping.
- the polarity of the magnetite
in the Atlantic Ocean floor
shows a similar pattern on
both sides of the Mid-
Atlantic ridge.
The pattern was symmetric to the ridge,
supporting the idea of symmetric seafloor spreading. public domain

- Radiometic dating shows

the rock closest to the
Mid-Atlantic ridge is the
youngest, and gets
progressively older as
you move away from the
ridge.
Videos

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryrXAGY1dmE
• https://youtu.be/O5jQLKWvYBA
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEh4B1Pv8YE

If you want to know more about plate tectonics, watch the following video:
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbtAXW-2nz0
Plate tectonics is a scientific theory describing the large-scale motion
of seven large plates and the movements of a larger number of smaller
plates of the Earth‘s lithosphere.

Tectonic plates are pieces of Earth's crust and uppermost mantle,

together referred to as the lithosphere. The plates are around 100 km
(62 mi) thick and consist of two principal types of material: oceanic
crust (also called sima from silicon and magnesium) and continental
crust (sial from silicon and aluminum).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tectonic_plates