E1405 2021.04.01 Urban Limits Suai

FBS-MOP-19019B
PREPARATION OF MASTER PLAN

FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS
WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION
AINARO-MALIANA-SUAI
CONTRACT MPW-CS-200029
PROPOSED URBAN LIMITS AND

POPULATION ESTIMATIONS FOR SUAI, COVALIMA
November 14, 2023

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
2. TERRITORY CONTEXT
3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA
4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS
5. NOVA SUAI CITY POPULATION
6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE POPULATION
7. SUAI
8. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER SUPPLY AND
SANITATION (AINARO-MALIANA-SUAI) 2
1. INTRODUCTION
7. SUAI

1. INTRODUCTION
This presentation concerns the assignment for “Preparation of Master Plans for
Municipal Capitals Water Supply and Sanitation, Ainaro, Maliana and Suai”.
This project will be closed in June 2021, only 9 months, started last October.
This is a preliminary analysis of the proposed geographical limits for the municipal
capitals, as well as the as well as the corresponding population evolution until the year
2040
The presented results are estimations, not projections, since one does not have the
necessary baseline data to elaborate projections at suco and aldeia levels.
MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

SUPPLY AND SANITATION (AINARO-MALIANA-SUAI) 4
1. INTRODUCTION

7. SUAI
• We have characteristic ‘rural-urban’ settlements without clear urban boundaries.

• The built occupation combines:
a) Several low density nucleus Both structured and linked by
‘streets’, roads, and paths.
b) House sprawl areas

On the planning side, the concept of urban areas currently utilized in Timor-Leste is the
one use by Population Statistics, including (Census Report, 2010):
• “All district capitals were considered as urban areas. The boundaries of the district
capitals are the ones provided in the built up areas.
• “Areas which had following characteristics qualified as urban, which means that they:
a) have a population of about 2,000 people or more;
b) have less than 50 per cent of its population employed in agricultural/fishing
activities and the remaining people employed in the modern sector;
c) have electricity and piped water,
d) have access to schools, medical care and recreational facilities.”

HOWEVER:
• It is known that 2015 Census register as urban population the following:

oAinaro: 3.366 inhabitants;
oMaliana: 12.787 inhabitants;
oSuai: 9.130 inhabitants.
• The enumeration areas are known, however, they do not consider that the water supply
areas should coincide with the boundaries of the capital cities, since urban expansion
takes place, and water needs are not limited to administrative limits.

1. INTRODUCTION
7. SUAI

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION
CRITERIA
The criteria adopted for the definition of urban boundaries were based on the
criteria of continuity and contiguity of housing and urban equipment.
The proposed urban areas consider currently SMASA water supplied areas
Given the above context:
i) What are the criteria for establishing
water supply areas’ boundaries?
ii) Who defines those criteria?

POLITICAL AND URBAN
iii) How far must one go to include, within
PLANNING DECISIONS
the boundaries to be established, the
identified water needs that exist on the
territory?
1. INTRODUCTION
7. SUAI
4. POPULATION EVOLUTION
ESTIMATIONS
Population data:
Baseline data for estimations.

• Census 2004
• Census 2010
• Census 2015
• Suco’s population registered in 2020, at village (aldeia)
level, shared by Suco leaders
This is the baseline data for population estimations

ESTIMATIONS
AVAILABLE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

GROWTH RATES (%)
SOURCE
2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040
UNDESA PROJECTIONS FOR TIMOR-LESTE

1.94 1.85 1.69 1.46 1.30
(2100) - AVERAGE
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR TIMOR-LESTE
1.68 1.59 1.62 1.58 1.50
(2050) - HIGH
1.60 1.37 1.30 1.25 1.18
(2050) -MEDDIUM
1.51 1.14 0.98 0.89 0.81
(2050) -LOW
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR AINARO
0.47 0.32 0.64 - -
MUNICIPALITY (2030)
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR BOBONARO

0.25 -0.04 0.15 - -
MUNICIPALITY (2030)
DGE PROJECTIONS FOR COVALIMA

1.02 0.96 0.81 - -
MUNICIPALITY (2030)

ESTIMATIONS
Three scenarios were considered to estimate population’s volume evolution until 2040:
Scenario 1:
Population evolution was calculated applying the annual growth rates considered in DGE
projections for Covalima municipality level. As DGE projections are available only until
2030, it was assumed that the last annual growth rate considered in DGE projections
(2029-2030) would keep constant until 2040.
Scenario 1I:
Population evolution was calculated applying the annual growth rates considered in DGE
projections for Covalima municipality level. As DGE projections are available only until
2030, it was assumed that the last annual growth rate considered in DGE projections
(2029-2030) would keep constant until 2040.

ESTIMATIONS
Scenario III:
Since growth rates at municipality level can be different and can be expected to
be lower than the growth rates registered in the urban areas of municipality
capitals, a third scenario was considered applying a higher growth rate, based on
the average annual growth rate registered for the study area for the whole period
2004 to 2020. It was considered the average annual growth rate registered for
study area sucos aggregate, between 2004 and 2020, which was 2,32%. Then it
was assumed that, for the period 2020-2040, the population would grow at a
constant annual rate that is a half (1,16%) of the above annual growth rate
registered for the period 2004-2020.
This is an optimistic scenario.

ESTIMATIONS
Scenarios IA, IIA and IIIA:
This scenario contemplates the data acquired from Population registered in

2020, at village (aldeia) level, shared by suco leaders, and analyses the
population growth between 2020 and 2040, taking into consideration the
contribution of the Tasi Mane Project.

1. INTRODUCTION
7. SUAI
5. NOVA SUAI CITY
POPULATION
NOVA SUAI CITY (NSC)
Nova Suai consists of a proposed settlement town that aims to accommodate staff employed at the
supply base for the oil and gas industry.
This new town will be located on

land between the existing villages
of Holbelis and Dais and it is
estimated to house around 6000
residents, including staff,
contractors and theirs families.
The plan is to build modern
facilities (e.g., hotels, schools and
shopping centres) to cater for the
needs of the residents
(SOURCE: TimorGAP)
5. NOVA SUAI CITY
POPULATION
CRITERIA USED FOR THE ESTIMATIONS – DIRECT EMPLOYMENT

• For the construction phase, a workforce of 1,500 workers has been estimated
(identical to that planned for SSB), on an annual average, and a construction period of
5 years;
• For the construction phase, it was estimated that local labour would be 50%;
• For the operation phase it was estimated that local employment would be 80%;
• For the construction phase, it was estimated that, on average, each external worker
would be accompanied by 1 family member;
• For the operation phase, it was estimated that, on average, each external worker would
be accompanied by 2 family members.
Criteria based on documents from TimorGAP, Tasi Mane Project and ACIL, 2011~2020

5. NOVA SUAI CITY
POPULATION
CRITERIA USED FOR THE ESTIMATIONS – INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT
• For the construction phase a very conservative multiplier was applied = 1.5;
• For the operation phase a multiplier was applied = 2.0;
be accompanied by 2 family members.
Criteria based on documents from TimorGAP, Tasi Mane Project and ACIL, 2011~2020

5. NOVA SUAI CITY
POPULATION
CONSTRUCTION PHASE
NOVA SUAI CITY

Total
Year Direct external Indirect external External
employment employment Population
+ families + families
2023 750 1 125 1 875
2024 1 750 2 625 4 375
2025 2 500 3 750 6 250
2026 700 2 625 3 325
2027 300 1 125 1 425
*Operation phase

5. NOVA SUAI CITY
POPULATION
OPERATION PHASE
NOVA SUAI CITY
Direct external Indirect external Total External
Year
2026 700* 2 625* 3 325
2027 300* 1 125* 1 425
2028 99 132 231
2029 99 132 231
2030 99 132 231
2031 99 132 231
2032 99 132 231
2033 99 132 231
2034 99 132 231
2035 99 132 231
2036 99 132 231
2037 99 132 231
2038 99 132 231
2039 99 132 231 *Contruction
2040 99 132 231 phase
1. INTRODUCTION
7. SUAI
6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE
POPULATION
The Suai Supply Base will provide an entry point for materials and equipment that
will be needed to build, operate and maintain petroleum industry infrastructure and
plants in the Timor Sea region.
It will be a multi-purpose seaport
including a container park,
warehouse logistics area and fuel
storage facilities. The port may
also include shipbuilding and
repair facilities to cater for oil and
gas business, navy and cruise
ships.
(SOURCE: TimorGAP)

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE
POPULATION
CRITERIA USED FOR THE ESTIMATIONS – DIRECT EMPLOYEMENT

• For the construction phase, an average annual workforce of 1,500 workers was considered;
• For the operation phase, the estimates were based on ACIL ALLEN (2016);
• For the construction phase, it was estimated that the local workforce would be 20%, in Year
1, 30% in Year 2 and 40% in Year 3, about half of the total East Timor workforce, estimated
by ACIL ALLEN (2016);
• For the operation phase, it was estimated that the local workforce would be 15% in the first
5 years and 25% in the remaining years, about half of the total East Timor workforce,
estimated by ACIL ALLEN (2016);
• For the construction phase, it was estimated that, on average, each external worker would
be accompanied by 1 family member;
• For the operation phase, it was estimated that, on average, each external worker would be
accompanied by 2 family members

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE
POPULATION
CRITERIA USED FOR THE ESTIMATIONS – INDIRECT EMPLOYEMENT
• For the construction phase a very conservative multiplier was applied = 1.5;
• For the operation phase, the values summarised by ACIL ALLEN (2016) were
followed;

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE
POPULATION
CRITERIA USED FOR THE ESTIMATIONS – INDIRECT EMPLOYEMENT
be accompanied by 2 family members;
• The category "Other migrants" includes the external population drawn by the Tasi
Mane, but which cannot be incorporated into the labour force arising from
employment directly or indirectly generated;
• It has been assumed that the hotel unit planned for Nova Suai comes into operation in
the 3rd year of the construction phase and has an average occupancy rate of 70%.

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE
POPULATION
TOTAL EXTERNAL POPULATION (CONSTRUCTION PHASE)
SUAI SUPPLY BASE

Total
Other Visitors
migrants (Hospitality)
2023 1 200 1 125 375 0 2 700

2024 4 200 4 500 1 188 0 9 888
2025 750 1 125 813 350 3 038
2026 510* 2 025* 578 350 3 463
2027 510* 2 160* 388 350 3 408
*Operation phase

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE
POPULATION
TOTAL EXTERNAL POPULATION (OPERATION PHASE)

SUAI SUPPLY BASE
Total *Contruction
Visitors phase
employment employment Other migrants Population
(Hospitality)
2026 510 2 025 578* 350* 3 463
2027 510 2 160 388* 350* 3 408
2028 510 3 240 220 350 4 320
2029 510 2 700 310 350 3 870
2030 765 4 320 320 350 5 755
2031 450 4 320 320 350 5 440
2032 450 4 320 310 350 5 430
2033 450 4 140 400 350 5 340
2034 450 5 760 370 350 6 930
2035 450 5 220 500 350 6 520
2036 450 7 560 500 350 8 860
2037 450 7 560 550 350 8 910
2038 450 8 460 590 350 9 850
2039 450 9 180 655 350 10 635
2040 750 9 360 620 350 11 080

1. INTRODUCTION
7. SUAI
7. SUAI
Scenario 1:
Population evolution estimation – Scenario 1

Water
Supply
Study Area 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
25006 25277 25541 25801 26056 26307 26558 26812 27070

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
29 Aldeias 27334 27600 27861 28110 28342 28554 28739 28926 29113
2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
• Scenarios I, 29302
II and III were 29684
29492 developed mostly
29876 based 30265
30070 in DGE 30462
Censos and Population
30659
projections.
• Scenarios IA, IIA and IIIA are based on mentioned three scenarios, incorporating
population registered in 2020 at village (aldeia) level, shared by Suco leaders.
7. SUAI
Scenario 1I:

Water
Supply
Study Area 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
25006 25277 25541 25801 26056 26307 26558 26812 27070

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
29 Aldeias 27334 27600 27861 28110 28342 28554 28739 28901 29042
2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
29165 29272 29365 29446 29516 29578 29631 29677

7. SUAI
Scenario III:

Water
Supply
Study Area 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
25006 25277 25551 25828 26108 26391 26677 26966 27258

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
29 Aldeias 27554 27853 28155 28460 28768 29080 29395 29714 30036
2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
30361 30691 31023 31360 31699 32043 32390 32741

7. SUAI
Scenario IA (*):
Population evolution estimation – Scenario IA

Water
Supply Study
Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
26857 27113 27372 27636 27905 28176 28443 28697 28934

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
29 Aldeias
29150 29340 29530 29722 29915 30109 30304 30501 30699
2038 2039 2040
30898 31098 31300
(*) population registered in 2020 at village level, shared by Suco leaders

7. SUAI
Scenario 1IA (*):
Population evolution estimation – Scenario IIA

Water
Supply Study
Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
26857 27113 27372 27636 27905 28176 28443 28697 28934

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
29 Aldeias 29150 29340 29505 29649 29774 29883 29979 30061 30133
2038 2039 2040
30196 30250 30297

7. SUAI
Scenario IIIA (*):
Population evolution estimation – Scenario IIIA

Water
Supply Study
Area 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
26857 27148 27442 27740 28041 28344 28652 28962 29276

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
29 Aldeias 29594 29914 30239 30566 30898 31233 31571 31913 32259
2038 2039 2040
32609 32962 33320

7. SUAI
Population Estimation
34000
32741
32000
30659
30000 29395
29677
28739
28000
26391
26000
24000
Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III

7. SUAI
Population Estimation (*)

34000 33320
32000
31300
29914
30000
30297
29340
28000
26000
24000
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Scenario IA Scenario IIA Scenario IIIA

7. SUAI
SUAI – ADMINISTRATIVE POSTS AND SUCOS

7. SUAI
SUAI WATER SUPPLY STUDY AREA: SUAI ADMINISTRATIVE POST SUCOS
(SOURCE: DGE, 2019b)

7. SUAI
CAMENAÇA SUCO ALDEIAS DEBOS SUCO ALDEIAS

  Ahinarai
Ailoc Laran  Laconac Babu
 Asumaten
 Fatuisin  Aconac Besic
 Asurai
 Manequin  Lo’oque
 Busacucun
 Sanfuc  Tabacolot
5. SUAI
LABARAI SUCO ALDEIAS SUAI LORO SUCO ALDEIAS

 Bonuc  Aicar Laran
 Mucbelis  Lo’o
 Roec  Loro
 Mane Icun
 Sucabe Laran
7. SUAI
SUAI WATER SUPPLY STUDY AREA: MAUCATAR ADMINISTRATIVE POST SUCOS

7. SUAI
MATAI SUCO ALDEIAS HOLPITAT SUCO ALDEIAS OQUES SUCO ALDEIAS

 Lohorai  Fatuc Oan  Ogues
 Matai  Orun
 Quiar
 Qunain

7. SUAI
EXISTING AND PROPOSED SUAI WATER SUPPLY ZONES
Proposed area ≈ 37,3 km2
Pop. Density
Scenario (Inhab./km2)
2040
I 822
II 796
III 878
IA 839
IIA 812
IIIA 893

7. SUAI
FUTURE SUPPLY ZONE AND SERVED ALDEIAS

1. INTRODUCTION
7. SUAI
OBRIGADU BARAK

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FBS-MOP-19019B

PREPARATION OF MASTER PLAN

PROPOSED URBAN LIMITS AND

November 14, 2023

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

5. NOVA SUAI CITY POPULATION

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE POPULATION

8. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

5. NOVA SUAI CITY POPULATION

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE POPULATION

8. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

5. NOVA SUAI CITY POPULATION

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE POPULATION

8. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

• We have characteristic ‘rural-urban’ settlements without clear urban boundaries.

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

• It is known that 2015 Census register as urban population the following:

oMaliana: 12.787 inhabitants;

oSuai: 9.130 inhabitants.

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

5. NOVA SUAI CITY POPULATION

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE POPULATION

8. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

ii) Who defines those criteria?

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

5. NOVA SUAI CITY POPULATION

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE POPULATION

8. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

Baseline data for estimations.

This is the baseline data for population estimations

AVAILABLE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

UNDESA PROJECTIONS FOR TIMOR-LESTE

DGE PROJECTIONS FOR BOBONARO

DGE PROJECTIONS FOR COVALIMA

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

Scenarios IA, IIA and IIIA:

This scenario contemplates the data acquired from Population registered in

MPW-CS-200029 - MASTER PLAN FOR THE MUNICIPAL CAPITALS WATER

3. BOUNDARIES DEFINITION CRITERIA

4. POPULATION EVOLUTION ESTIMATIONS

5. NOVA SUAI CITY POPULATION

6. SUAI SUPPLY BASE POPULATION

8. COMMENTS, SUGGESTIONS, CONCLUSIONS

NOVA SUAI CITY (NSC)

This new town will be located on

CRITERIA USED FOR THE ESTIMATIONS – DIRECT EMPLOYMENT