Mac 9&10
Mac 9&10
Mac 9&10
11-2
• We use the IS-LM model developed to show how monetary and
fiscal policy work
• Two main macroeconomic policies to make economy grow at
reasonable rate, with low inflation; or to shorten recessions, or to
prevent booms from getting out of hand
• Fiscal policy has its initial impact in the goods market
• Monetary policy has its initial impact mainly in the assets
markets
Because the goods and assets markets are interconnected,
both fiscal and monetary policies have effects on both the level
of output and interest rates
Expansionary/contractionary monetary policy moves the LM
curve to the right/left (raising/lowering income , lowering
/raising interest)
Expansionary/contractionary fiscal policy moves the IS curve to
the right/left( raising both income and interest rates/ lowering
both income and interest rates)
Which Targets for the Fed?
Three key points:
1. There is a distinction is between ultimate targets and intermediate
targets.
– Ultimate targets are variables such as the inflation rate and unemployment
rate whose behavior matters.
– Intermediate targets, including the interest rate, are targets the Fed aims at in
order to hit the ultimate targets more accurately
– The discount rate, RRR, and OMO are the instruments Fed has to hit the
target
Introduction
• In Great Recession, Fed aggressively cut interest rates
• Reduced to almost zero
• Continued even after official end of recession
Control of the Money Stock and Interest Rate
• The Fed cannot simultaneously
set the interest rate AND the
stock of money at any given
target levels that it may choose
• Suppose that the Fed wants to
set the interest rate at i* and the
money stock at M*, with the
demand for money at LL
• The Fed can move the money
supply around, but not LL It
can only set combinations of i
and M that lie along LL
The history of money
• In the beginning markets operated on a barter system where
exchange of goods and the preferences for them determined
the endogenous valuation of goods.
• Because of the inefficiency of using a double coincidence of
wants, markets started relying on money as a medium of
exchange.
• Initially there was commodity money (gold and silver).
Commodity money has intrinsic value, i.e.- they had value in
themselves, based on demand and supply.
• This value governed the prices of goods. There was thus no
need for regulation by the central bank.
• Then came Fiat Money
The demand for money
•Money is a medium of exchange, unit of account and a store of
value.
• The cost of holding money is the interest forgone by not holding
other assets. The cost is estimated to be the short term interest
rate.
• The sources of money demand are the speculative or asset
demand and the transactions and precautionary demand for
money.
•Since payment occurs at discrete intervals but expenditure
occurs regularly, people may demand to hold money for
purchases and transactions. The transaction demand is usually
increasing in income.
•Precautionary demand is to meet unforeseen circumstances.
•Money may also be held speculatively as an asset, and this
demand is low in most advanced economies but not that low in
developing countries such as India. Asset demand for money is
inversely related to the interest rate
The fractional-reserve banking system
• The money supply consists mainly of deposits at banks Fed does not control
directly
• A key concept concerning money in the U.S. is the fractional reserve banking system: banks
required to keep only a fraction of all deposits on hand or on reserve (not loaned out)
• In the fractional banking system, banks do not keep the whole amount
that they obtain as deposits and can re-lend out at least a stipulated
amount (SLR and CRR dictate this).
• Suppose a bank has Rs. 1,000,000 in reserves. It does not need to keep
all 10 lakhs in the bank. Suppose it lends out 9 lakhs (90 percent) and
keeps one lakh for transactions etc.
• Suppose one person takes this loan and deposits it in the bank. Now
again 90 % is lent out, so the bank lends out 8,10,000 and keeps 90,000.
• So now the banking system has reserves worth 1,90,000 (1 lakh from
first lending and 90,000 from the second lending.
The money (deposit) multiplier
• Adding up all the deposit creation we get:
11-15
• The MPC will determine the policy rate required to achieve the inflation
target.
• The MPC will meet at least four times in a year.
• The questions which come up before the MPC will be decided by majority of
votes by the members present in voting.
• The resolution adopted by the MPC will be published after conclusion of
every meeting of the MPC.
• On the 14th day, the minutes of the proceedings of the MPC will be
published which include:
• the resolution adopted by the MPC;
• the vote of each member on the resolution, ascribed to such member; and
• the statement of each member on the resolution adopted.
• Once in every six months, the bank will publish a document called the
Monetary Policy Report which will explain:
• the source of inflation; and
• the forecast of inflation for 6-18 months ahead.
• 5.77% GS 2030
• Rs 100
• P increases =110
• Yield decreases
• P decreases= 90
• Yield increases
11-17
The Instruments of Monetary Control
• The Federal Reserve has three instruments for controlling
money supply
1. Open market operations
• Buying and selling of government bonds
2. Discount rate
• Interest rate Federal Reserve “charges” commercial banks for
borrowing money
• Federal Reserve is often the lender of last resort for commercial
banks
3. Required-reserve ratio
• Portion of deposits commercial banks are required to keep on
hand, and not loan out
Loans and Discounts
• A bank that runs short on reserves can borrow to make up the
difference
• Can borrow from the Fed or other banks
• The cost of borrowing from the Fed is the discount rate (serves
as a signal)
Table 17-1 Effects of an Open Market Purchase on the Fed Balance Sheet
(Millions of Dollars)
ASSETS LIABILITIES
Government securities +1 Currency 0
All other assets 0 Bank deposits at Fed +1
Monetary base (sources) +1 Monetary base (uses) +1
The Fed’s Balance Sheet
• Table 17-2 shows the principal assets and liabilities of the Fed
Table 17-2 Main Assets and Liabilities of All Federal Reserve Banks, Nov. 16, 2016
(Billions of Dollars)
ASSETS (SOURCES) LIABILITIES (USES)
Gold and special drawing rights $18 Federal Reserve notes $1,445
U.S. government securities $2,482 Deposits $2,608
Mortgage-backed securities $1,748
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Factors Affecting Reserve Balances, November 17, 2016.
Monetary Policy
• Increase in quantity of money affects
economy : increasing output by
lowering interest rates [Insert Figure 11-3 here]
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is
responsible for monetary policy in
India.
• Monetary policy is conducted through
various means, such as :
• Open market operations: buying
and selling of government bonds
RBI buys bonds in exchange for
money increases the stock of
money (Fig.) to pursue an
expansionary monetary policy
(EMP).
RBI sells bonds in exchange for
money paid by purchasers of the
bonds reducing the money
stock to pursue a contractionary
monetary policy (CMP).
• Consider the process of adjustment to the
monetary expansion
• At the initial equilibrium, E, the increase in
money supply creates an excess supply of
money
• Public adjusts to excess supply by buying [Insert Figure 11-3 here, again]
other assets
• Asset prices increase, and yields (i.e., i )
decrease move to point E1( new LM
schedule which shifts to right)
11-27
Transmission Mechanism
• Two steps in the transmission mechanism (the process by which changes in
monetary policy affect AD):
1. An increase in real balances generates a portfolio disequilibrium
• At the prevailing interest rate and level of income, people are
holding more money than they want
• Portfolio holders attempt to reduce their money holdings by buying
other assets changes asset prices and yields
• The change in money supply changes interest rates
2. A change in interest rates affects AD
11-41
INTEREST CONSUMP INVESTME GDP
RATE TION NT
INCOME + + - +
TAX CUT
GOVT + + - +
SPENDING
INVESTME + + + +
NT
SUBSIDY
The Composition of Output
and the Policy Mix
• Figure shows the policy problem of [Insert Figure 11-8 here]
reaching full employment output, Y*,
for an economy that is initially at
point E, with unemployment
• Should a policy maker choose:
Fiscal policy expansion, moving to
point E1, with higher income and
higher interest rates
Monetary policy expansion,
resulting in full employment with
lower interest rates at point E2
A mix of fiscal expansion and
accommodating monetary policy
resulting in an intermediate
position
The Composition of Output
and the Policy Mix
• All of the policy alternatives increase [Insert Figure 11-8 here]
output, but differ significantly in their
impact on different sectors of the
economy problem of political
economy
• Given the decision to expand
aggregate demand, who should get
the primary benefit?
• An expansion through a decline in
interest rates and increased
investment spending?
• An expansion through a tax cut and
increased personal
consumption/spending?
• An expansion in the form of an
increase in the size of the
government?
• Speed and predictability, flexibility are given due consideration
• Also political preferences
• Conservatives for tax cut regime in recession, and cut in govt spending in
boom
• Would like to make govt sector small
• Other view favour govt spending on education, health, infrastructure and so
expansionary policies; and higher taxes to curb boom
• Growth minded people would like to focus on investment subsidies and
expansionary policies that operate through low interest rates
• Policy makers can choose policy mix of monetary and fiscal policies to attain
full employment, which can also make contribution to solving other policy
problems like literacy, health , etc.
The following describes an economy :
(i) What is the effect of an increase in government expenditure by Rs 400 , on income and interest rate ?
(ii) How much is the crowding out of investment by the increase in government expenditure ?
(iii) If the LM curve changes to : 800 = 0.5 * Y , how would your answer to (i) and (ii) change ?
11-46
LM curve : 800 = 0.5Y-20i LM curve : 2Y = 3200 + 80i
solve the simultaneous equation system to get : solve the simultaneous equation system to get :
11-47
(ii) (iii)
IS : Y = αG[A - bi]
ΔI = - (80/3)*(30-20)
11-48
LM curve : 800 = 0.5Y
LM curve : Y = 1600
Y = 1600 and i = 45
ΔI = - (80/3)*45 + (80/3)*30
ΔI = - (80/3)*(45-30)
ΔI = - (80/3)*15
ΔI = - 400
11-49
The following describes an economy :
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(i) (ii)
Y=C+I+G Y=C+I+G
(M / P) = (1/5)*5000 -
LM : (1/5)Y = 500 + 60i 60*2.9562
Δ(M/P)
Y = (14500 * 64) / 274 = 822.6277-500
i = (1/60)*[(1/5)*{(14500*64)/274}-500] ΔG = 705.7482