Afghanistan: Virág Novák-Varró Nups, Diss Oct. 19. 2021. Novak-Varro - Virag@uni-Nke - Hu

Afghanistan
Virág Novák-Varró
NUPS, DISS
Oct. 19. 2021.
[email protected]
„When Allah had made the rest of the world, He saw
that a lot of rubbish left over, bits and peaces and
things that did not fit anywhere else. He collected
them all toghether and threw them down on to the
earth. That was Afghanistan”
„Upa-Gana-stan”
 A place inhabited by allied tribes

 Afghan: noisy, unruly
 Flag
 Black: stormy past
 Red: struggle for independence
 Green: prosperity
 Crest: Shahada, mosque, 1298

‫هرات‬
Herât
‫مزار شریف‬
Mazâr-e šarif
‫پنجشير‬
panjs̱ir
‫بامیان‬
Bâmyân
‫شیر پنجشیر‬
„lion of Panjs̱ir”
Balkh
‫بلخ‬
‫هرات‬
Herât
The Unseen Afghanistan
Geographical features
 652.230 km2
 Middle plateau, southern plain,
northern plain
 Hindukush mountains
 Helmand, Amu Darya river
 Band-e Amir national park 2009
 Dry continental, semi-desert
-40°- +40°
 Khybar Pass, Salang Pass
12
Who are the Afghans?
The „Afghans”
 Population: 37,466,414*
 Constitution recognizes 14 ethnic
groups:**  Pamiri
 Pashtun (42%)  Arab
 Tajik (27%)  Gujar
 Hazara (9%)  Brahui
 Uzbek (9%)  Qizilbash
 Baloch  Aimaq
 Turkmen (3%)  Pashai
 Nuristani
 * data from 2021
 **data from 2014

Paštunistân
Tribal society
 qawm
 ġelzây, durâni
 paštunvâli
 Namus – protection of women
and property
 ezzat – honor
 badal – revenge
 melmasteya – hospitality
Young nation with
many problems
 Population: 37 466 414
 Mother’s mean age at first birth: 19,9

 Total fertility rate: 4,72 (14.)
 Maternal mortality ratio: 638 death/100,000 birth (11.)
 Infant mortality rate: 106.75 deaths/1,000 live births
 1st (Hungary: 180. – 4.69/1,000)
 Life expectancy at birth: 51-55 yrs
Young nation with
many problems
 62% are under 25 yrs

 Unemployment: 17% (15-24 yrs)
 53% of the population is under the poverty
line
 life expectancy: 53 years
 Malnutrition in children: 25%
 Literacy: 43% (male: 55.5% female: 29.8%)
The most dangerous weapon
is… education
77%
48%
11%
3% (+Urdu)
1% (+Arabic)
1%
1%
 99,7% muslim
 84,7- 89,7% sunni
 10-15% shiite
 sufi
 Egyéb:
 Sikh
 Hindu
 Jewish - Zablon Simintov
 Christian
Beyond islam…
 Zoroastrianism (Balkh)
 Buddhism (Bâmyân) Hinduizmus
 Sikhism (Kabul, Jalâlâbâd)
 Hinduism
Islam, but a little bit different…
Folk / Popular Islam:
 refers to religious beliefs and practices
that are distinct from the more
orthodox Islamic beliefs and practices
 folk practices are full of rituals, objects,
and people that have power to protect
and give success or to harm one’s
enemy.
 Folk practices respond to
everyday challenges
 Examples:
 ziarat
 jinnd
 malang
The Graveyards
of Empires
History of Afghanistan – in a nutshell
Where are we now?
 1979-1989 – soviet-afghan war
 1989-1996 – civil war
 1996-2001 – Taliban regime
 2001-2021 – „democratic” Afghanistan
 2021.08.16. – Islamic Emirate 2.0
Who are the Taliban?
But who are the Taliban?
But who are the Taliban?
 Students (‫لبان‬FF‫ )طا‬ ’80s-’90s Pakistan + Kandahar
 Pashtuns
 Fundamentalist organization
 Religious / political movement
- answer  to the corrupt and unprincipled behavior of the government
 to chaos
- religious movements of the Islamic world, the ideas of religious scholars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtQYJzeeXaI&ab_channel=HistoryWithHilbert
Ideology
 Bases of the Taliban’s ideology:

1. Muslim Brotherhood
Sharia
2. Vahhabi movement
extreme Puritanism, there is only one true interpretation of Islam
3. Iranian Revolution
mass base, emphasis on religious leaders
4. Pashtunwali
Pashtun tribal code - the traditional lifestyle of the Pashtun people „the way of the Afghans”
5. Deobandi Islamic Rules
Organizational changes
in the Taliban
1. 1994-1996 – The rise of the Taliban
2. 1996-2001 – The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
3. 2002-2006 – Taliban insurgency
4. 2007-2014 – National uprising
5. From 2015 – Expanding Taliban
6. 2021.08.15. - The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan 2.0
Béketárgyalások?
Peace talks
 Feb. 29. 2020. – „Doha Agreement”
1. Withdrawal of foreign troops (USA + allies)
 Jul 2020 - reduced to US 8,600, NATO will follow
2. Security guarantees
3. Start of Afghan peace talks
 Permanent and sustainable ceasefire
 Agreement on the future political settlement of Afghanistan
 Feb. 29. 2020. - US-Afghanistan statement

 A comprehensive and sustainable peace agreement
 Withdrawal of foreign troops in 2 steps
The US recognizes the
 Confidence building measures (eg. prisoner exchange)
Taliban as an
 Maintaining positive US relations
independent political
entity!
Withdrawal
 2021.05.01.
 2021.09.11.
 2021.08.31.
 SIVs?
The Taliban government
Do Afghans support the Taliban?
 Those who use radio as their main source of news and
information are more likely to feel sympathy for the
Taliban (16.5%)
 who have a lot or a little sympathy for the Taliban is
13.4%
Resistance
International Relations
Regional
Perspectives
Regional powers
 Pakistan
 India
 Iran
 China
 Russia
 In public: noble goals in resolving the crisis - peace, development, cooperation,

economic prosperity, ethnic and cultural cooperation
 In fact: a power competition between them - a secondary theatre
Pakistan
 Imran Khan declared that the Taliban
were “breaking the chains of slavery.”
 Supports the Taliban, why?
 ideological
 Pashtunistan issue  Taliban preach Islam instead of pastun nationalism
 Pakistan-friendly government
 India-Paki
 China-Paki
Iran
 Ebrahim Raisi: “America’s military defeat must become an
opportunity to restore life, security, and durable peace in
Afghanistan.”
 Sunni-shia divide + US-iráni ellentét

 Potential problems:
 refugees
 Instability
 Strengthening of Sunni armed groups
China
 ‚Beijing respects Afghans’ right to decide their future’
 Diplomatic relations
 Recognition?
 Terrorism, extremism, separatism – ‚the 3 evils’
 Non - interference in domestic affairs
 ‚China’s perfect partner: dysfunctional, dependent,
and happy with whatever China can do for it.’
 BRI?
Russia
 Zamir Kabulov, called the Taliban a ‘far more trustworthy partner than the puppet
government in Kabul’
 Chechen, Muslim separatists
 The spread of Islamic radical ideology
Thank you for your attention!
Questions?
Recommended readings:
• Council on Foreign Relations: The U.S. War in Afghanistan 1999 – 2021
• 100 days of Taliban rule in Afghanistan
• Ryan Crocker: Afghanistan 2001-2021: U.S. Policy Lessons Learned Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
NOVEMBER 17, 2021 TESTIMONY: SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE
• Oz Hassan: Reassessing the European Strategy in Afghanistan. Carnegie Europe, NOVEMBER 17, 2021 ARTICLE
• CSIS Podcast: Afghanistan Now. Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2021.08.16.
• Anand Gopal - Alex Strick-Van-Linschoten: Ideology in the Afghan Taliban. Afghanistan Analysts Network, 29. Jun.
2017.
• Olivier Roy: Islam and Resistance in Afghanistan. Cambridge University Press, Cambride, 1986
• Ahmed Rasid: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. Yale University Press, 2001
• Thomas Barfield: Afghanistan. A Cultural and Political History. Princeton University Press, Oxford. 2010
• Kik azok a tálibok? Létezik-e afgán állam? – válaszol Sárközy Miklós – nagyinterjú. InfoStart
• Wagner Péter az Arénában -
https://infostart.hu/arena/2021/08/24/wagner-peter-a-kulugyi-es-kulgazdasagi-intezet-vezeto-kutatoja
• KKI 4:1, 2021/18. Milyen lehetőségei vannak Afganisztán szomszédainak az amerikai kivonulás után?
Movies / videos to watch 
• ISIL and the Taliban - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYfBeeUzVME&t=751s
• Charlie Wilson’s War - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wr4nhWzTDGE
• The Breadwinner - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p64O8KAHHaQ&t=5s
• The Swallows Of Kabul - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLufPM45Ols
• The Kite Runner - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vo5HJB4FNnY
• 12 Strong - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGHaYGquCls
• Lone survivor - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JNIvOlL3ds
• War Machine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIO_BFCf8fU
• Osama - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_h6tSNXgBk
• Buzkashi Boys - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCuvVz7BR7c
• Hungarikumokkal a világ körül 3. évad 4. rész - Honvédő magyarok Afganisztánban -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOz_wMk4zPM

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Afghanistan

 A place inhabited by allied tribes

 Crest: Shahada, mosque, 1298

 * data from 2021

 **data from 2014

 Mother’s mean age at first birth: 19,9

 62% are under 25 yrs

 Bases of the Taliban’s ideology:

 Feb. 29. 2020. - US-Afghanistan statement

 In public: noble goals in resolving the crisis - peace, development, cooperation,

 Sunni-shia divide + US-iráni ellentét

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