Basics of Probability Lecture

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Basic Probability

4-1
Deterministic Models and
Random or Probabilistic Models.

■ Deterministic Models cover those situations, where


everything related to the situation is known with certainty to
the decision-maker, when decision is to be made. In
Deterministic Models, frequency distribution or descriptive
statistics measures are used to arrive at a decision.
■ Probabilistic Models, the totality of the outcomes is
known but it can not be certain, which particular outcome
will appear. So, there is always some uncertainty involved
in decision-making. In random situations, probability and
probability distributions are used to make decisions. So
probability is also be defined as measure of uncertainty

4-2
What is probability

■ “How likely something is to happen.”


■ Many events can't be predicted with total
certainty. The best we can say is how likely
they are to happen, using the idea of probability.

4-3
Basic Probability Concepts

■ Probability – the chance that an uncertain event


will occur (always between 0 and 1)

■ Impossible Event – an event that has no


chance of occurring (probability = 0)

■ Certain Event – an event that is sure to occur


(probability = 1)

4-4
Some examples

■ Tossing a Coin
■ When a coin is tossed, there are two possible
outcomes:
■ heads (H) or tails (T)
■ We say that the probability of the coin landing H
is ½ and the probability of the coin landing T is
½.

4-5
Example: the chances of rolling a "4" with a die

■ Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is


only 1 face with a "4" on it)
■ Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6
faces altogether)
■ So the probability = ⅙ 

4-6
Assessing Probability

There are three approaches to assessing the


probability of an uncertain event:
1. a priori -- based on prior knowledge of the process

probability of occurrence
Assuming
all
outcomes 2. empirical probability
are
equally
likely probability of occurrence

3. subjective probability

based on a combination of an individual’s past experience,


personal opinion, and analysis of a particular situation

4-7
Example of a priori probability

Find the probability of selecting a face card (Jack,


Queen, or King) from a standard deck of 52 cards.

4-8
Example of empirical probability

Find the probability of selecting a male taking statistics


from the population described in the following table:

Taking Stats Not Taking Total


Stats
Male 84 145 229
Female 76 134 210
Total 160 279 439

Probability of male taking stats

4-9
Events

Each possible outcome of a variable is an event.

■ Simple event
■ An event described by a single characteristic
■ e.g., A red card from a deck of cards
■ The activity that produces such an event is referred to in
probability theory as an experiment.
■ Joint event
■ An event described by two or more characteristics
■ e.g., An ace that is also red from a deck of cards
■ Complement of an event A (denoted A’)
■ All events that are not part of event A
■ e.g., All cards that are not diamonds
4-10
Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all
possible events
e.g. All 6 faces of a die:

e.g. All 52 cards of a bridge deck:

4-11
4-12
Visualizing Events

■ Contingency Tables
Ace Not Ace Total

Black 2 24 26
Red 2 24 26

Total 4 48 52

■ Decision Trees Total


Ace 2 Number
Sample Of
C ar d
Space
Bla ck 24 Sample
Full Deck No t a n A c e Space
of 52 Cards Ac e Outcomes
Red C 2
ard
Not an 24
Ace
4-13
Definition: Simple Probability

■ Simple Probability refers to the probability of a


simple event.
■ ex. P(Ace)
■ ex. P(Red)

Ace Not Ace Total


P(Red) = 26 / 52
Black 2 24 26
Red 2 24 26

Total 4 48 52

P(Ace) = 4 / 52
4-14
Definition: Joint Probability
■ Joint Probability refers to the probability of an
occurrence of two or more events (joint event).
■ ex. P(Ace and Red)
■ ex. P(Black and Not Ace)
Ace Not Ace Total

Black 2 24 26 P(Black and Not Ace)=


Red 2 24 26 24 / 52
Total 4 48 52

P(Ace and Red) = 2 / 52


4-15
Mutually Exclusive Events

■ Mutually exclusive events


■ Events that cannot occur simultaneously
■ Events are said to be mutually exclusive if one and
only one of them can take place at a time.

Example: Drawing one card from a deck of cards

A = queen of diamonds; B = queen of clubs

■ Events A and B are mutually exclusive

4-16
Collectively Exhaustive Events
■ When a list of the possible events that can result
from an experiment includes every possible
outcome, the list is said to be collectively exhaustive.

■ example:
A = aces; B = black cards;
C = diamonds; D = hearts

■ Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive


(but not mutually exclusive – an ace may also be
a heart)
■ Events B, C and D are collectively exhaustive and
also mutually exclusive
4-17
■ Give a collectively exhaustive list of the possible
outcomes of tossing two dice.
■ Give the probability for each of the following totals in
the rolling of two dice: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10 and 11.

4-18
Computing Joint and
Marginal Probabilities

■ The probability of a joint event, A and B:

■ Computing a marginal (or simple) probability:

■ Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and collectively


exhaustive events

4-19
Joint Probability Example

P(Red and Ace)

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

4-20
Marginal Probability Example

P(Ace)

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

4-21
Marginal & Joint Probabilities In A
Contingency Table

Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)
A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

Joint Probabilities Marginal (Simple) Probabilities

4-22
Axioms of Probability

■ Axiom - A statement or proposition which is regarded


as being established, accepted, or self-evidently true.
■ Axiom One - The probability of any event is a
nonnegative real number.
■ Axiom Two - The probability of the entire sample space
is one. Symbolically we write P(S) = 1.
■ Axiom Three - The third axiom of probability deals with
mutually exclusive events. If E1 and E2 are
mutually exclusive, meaning that they have an empty
intersection and we use U to denote the union, then
P(E1 U E2 ) = P(E1) + P(E2).

4-23
Mutually Exclusive

■ Two events are said to be mutually exclusive


if and only if the events have no shared outcomes. 
■ If we consider the events as sets, then we would say
that two events are mutually exclusive when their
intersection is the empty set. 
■ We could denote that events A and B are mutually
exclusive by the formula A ∩ B = Ø. 
■ There are times when it is very important to determine if
two events are mutually exclusive or not. Knowing
whether two events are mutually exclusive influences
the calculation of the probability that one or the other
occurs.
4-24
The Addition Rule
Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive if they cannot


occur at the same time.

A and B

A
B A B

A and B are mutually A and B are not mutually


exclusive. exclusive.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Example:
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.
Event A: Roll a number less than 3 on a die. Event B: Roll
a 4 on a die.

A B
1
4
2

These events cannot happen at the same time, so the events


are mutually exclusive.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Example:
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.
Event A: Select a Jack from a deck of cards. Event B:
Select a heart from a deck of cards.

A J♦ 9♥ 2♥ B
3♥ 10♥
J♠ J♥ A♥ 7♥
K♥ 4♥
J♣ 5♥ 8♥
6♥ Q♥

Because the card can be a Jack and a heart at the same time,
the events are not mutually exclusive.
The Addition Rule
The probability that event A or B will occur is given by
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B ).
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the rule can be
simplified to P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B).
Example:
You roll a die. Find the probability that you roll a number less than 3
or a 4.
The events are mutually exclusive.
P (roll a number less than 3 or roll a 4)
= P (number is less than 3) + P (4)
The Addition Rule
Example:
A card is randomly selected from a deck of cards. Find the probability
that the card is a Jack or the card is a heart.
The events are not mutually exclusive because the Jack of
hearts can occur in both events.

P (select a Jack or select a heart)


= P (Jack) + P (heart) – P (Jack of hearts)
The Addition Rule
Example:
100 college students were surveyed and asked how many hours a week
they spent studying. The results are in the table below. Find the
probability that a student spends between 5 and 10 hours or more than
10 hours studying.
Less then More than
5 5 to 10 10 Total
Male 11 22 16 49
Female 13 24 14 51
Total 24 46 30 100
The events are mutually exclusive.
P (5 to10 hours or more than 10 hours) = P (5 to10) + P (10)
General Addition Rule

General Addition Rule:


P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then


P(A and B) = 0, so the rule can be simplified:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)


For mutually exclusive events A and B

4-32
ADDITION RULE FOR
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

■ If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then


the probability of A or B is the sum of the
probability of A and the probability of B.  We
write this compactly as follows:
■ P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
      or
■ P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

4-33
General Addition Rule Example

P(Red or Ace) = P(Red) +P(Ace) - P(Red and Ace)

= 26/52 + 4/52 - 2/52 = 28/52


Don’t count
the two red
Color aces twice!
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

4-34
4-35
4-36
Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-37
Multiplication Rule

■ The multiplication rule is much easier to state


and to work with when we use mathematical
notation.
■ Denote events A and B and the probabilities of
each by P(A) and P(B).
■ If A and B  are independent events, then:
■ P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B).

4-38
Example

■ Suppose that we roll a six sided dice and then


flip a coin.  
■ These two events are independent. 
■ The probability of rolling a 1 is 1/6.
■ The probability of a head is 1/2. 
■ The probability of rolling a 1 and getting a head
is 1/6 x 1/2 = 1/12.

4-39
Multiplication Rule

The probability that two events, A and B will occur in sequence is


P (A and B) = P (A) · P (B |A).
If event A and B are independent, then the rule can be simplified to
P (A and B) = P (A) · P (B).

Example:
Two cards are selected, without replacement, from a deck. Find
the probability of selecting a diamond, and then selecting a spade.

Because the card is not replaced, the events are dependent.


P (diamond and spade) = P (diamond) · P (spade |diamond).
Multiplication Rule

Example:
A die is rolled and two coins are tossed.
Find the probability of rolling a 5, and flipping two tails.
P (rolling a 5) =

Whether or not the roll is a 5, P (Tail ) =


so the events are independent.

P (5 and T and T ) = P (5)· P (T )· P (T )


4-42
4-43
Independence
■ Two events are independent if and only
if:

■ Events A and B are independent when the probability


of one event is not affected by the fact that the other
event has occurred

4-44
Multiplication Rules

■ Multiplication rule for two events A and B:

Note: If A and B are independent, then


and the multiplication rule simplifies to

4-45
Probability Summary So Far
■ Probability is the numerical measure
of the likelihood that an event will 1 Certain

occur
■ The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A 0.5
■ The sum of the probabilities of all
mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events is 1

0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive
4-46
Examples

■ Determine the probabilities of the following


events in drawing a card from a standard deck
of 52 cards:
■ (a) A seven.
■ (b) A black card.
■ (c) An ace or a king.
■ (d) A black two or a black three.
■ (e) A red face card

■ What type of probability estimates are these?


4-47
Conditional
Probability
Computing Conditional
Probabilities
■ A conditional probability is the probability of one
event, given that another event has occurred:
The conditional
probability of A given
that B has occurred

The conditional
probability of B given
that A has occurred

Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B


P(A) = marginal or simple probability of A
P(B) = marginal or simple probability of B
4-49
Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring,
given that another event has already occurred.
P (B |A) “Probability of B, given A”

Example:
There are 5 red chip, 4 blue chips, and 6 white chips in a basket.
Two chips are randomly selected. Find the probability that the
second chip is red given that the first chip is blue. (Assume that
the first chip is not replaced.)

Because the first chip is selected and not replaced, there are
only 14 chips remaining.
P (selecting a red chip|first chip is blue)
Conditional Probability
Example:
100 college students were surveyed and asked how many hours a week
they spent studying. The results are in the table below. Find the
probability that a student spends more than 10 hours studying given
that the student is a male.
Less then More than
5 5 to 10 10 Total
Male 11 22 16 49
Female 13 24 14 51
Total 24 46 30 100
The sample space consists of the 49 male students. Of these 49,
16 spend more than 10 hours a week studying.
P (more than 10 hours|male)
Independent Events

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of the events


does not affect the probability of the other event. Two events A
and B are independent if
P (B |A) = P (B) or if P (A |B) = P (A).
Events that are not independent are dependent.
Example:
Decide if the events are independent or dependent.
Selecting a diamond from a standard deck of cards
(A), putting it back in the deck, and then selecting a ♦
spade from the deck (B). ♠
The occurrence of A does not
affect the probability of B, so the
events are independent.
Conditional Probability Example

■ Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air


conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player
(CD). 20% of the cars have both.

■ What is the probability that a car has a CD


player, given that it has AC ?

i.e., we want to find P(CD | AC)

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-53


Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
■ Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD).
20% of the cars have both.
CD No CD Total
AC 0. 0. 0.
2
0. 5
0. 7
No AC 0.
Total 2
0. 1
0. 3
4 6 1.0

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-54


Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
■ Given AC, we only consider the top row (70% of the cars). Of these,
20% have a CD player. 20% of 70% is about 28.57%.

CD No CD Total
AC 0. 0. 0.
2
0. 5
0. 7
No AC 0.
Total 2
0. 1
0. 3
4 6 1.0

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-55


Using Decision Trees

Given AC or CD P(AC and CD) = 0.2


Ha s
no AC: 0.7
C)= Doe
P( A s
have not P(AC and CD’) = 0.5
s AC CD
H a
All Conditional
Probabilitie
Cars s
Doe
hav s not
eA
C P(A CD P(AC’ and CD) = 0.2
C’) Ha s
=0
.3
Doe
s
have not P(AC’ and CD’) = 0.1
CD
Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-56
Using Decision Trees
(continued)

Given CD or AC P(CD and AC) = 0.2


Ha s
no CD: 0 .4
D) = Doe
P(C s
have not P(CD and AC’) = 0.2
C D AC
H as
All Conditional
Probabilitie
Cars s
Doe
hav s not
eC AC P(CD’ and AC) = 0.5
D P(C Ha s
D’)
=0
.6
Doe
s
have not P(CD’ and AC’) = 0.1
AC
Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-57
4-58
Bayes’ Theorem

■ Bayes’ Theorem is used to revise previously


calculated probabilities based on new
information.

■ Developed by Thomas Bayes in the 18th


Century.

■ It is an extension of conditional probability.

4-59
Application of Bayes’ Theorem

•Consider a manufacturing firm that receives


shipment of parts from two suppliers.
•Let A1 denote the event that a part is received
from supplier 1; A2 is the event the part is
received from supplier 2
We get 65 percent of our
parts from supplier 1 and 35
percent from supplier 2.

Thus:
P(A1) = .65 and P(A2) = .35
Quality levels differ between suppliers
Percentage Percentage
Good Parts Bad Parts
Supplier 1 98 2
Supplier 2 95 5

Let G denote that a part is good and B denote


the event that a part is bad. Thus we have the
following conditional probabilities:
P(G | A1 ) = .98 and P(B | A2 ) = .02

P(G | A2 ) = .95 and P(B | A2 ) = .05


Tree Diagram for Two-Supplier Example
Experimental
Step 1 Step 2 Outcome
Supplier Condition
(A1, G)
G

A1
B
(A1, B)

A2 G (A2, G)

B
(A2, B)
Each of the experimental
outcomes is the intersection of 2
events. For example, the
probability of selecting a part
from supplier 1 that is good is
given by:
Probability Tree for Step
Two-Supplier
2
Example
Step 1 Probability of
Condition
Supplier Outcome
P(G | A1)
.98
P(A1) P(B | A1)
.65 .02

P(A2) P(G | A2)


.95
.35
P(B | A2)
.05
A bad part broke one
of our machines—so
we’re through for the
day. What is the
probability the part
came from suppler 1?

We know from the law of conditional probability that:

(4.14)

Observe from the probability tree that:

(4.15)
The probability of selecting a bad
part is found by adding together
the probability of selecting a bad
part from supplier 1 and the
probability of selecting bad part
from supplier 2.

That is:

(4.16)
Bayes’ Theorem for 2 events
By substituting equations (4.15) and (4.16) into
(4.14), and writing a similar result for P(B | A2), we
obtain Bayes’ theorem for the 2 event case:
Do the Math
Bayes’ Theorem
Tabular Approach to Bayes’ Theorem—
2-Supplier Problem

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)


Prior Conditional Joint Posterior
Event Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
s P(Ai) P(B | A1 ) P(Ai ∩ B) P(Ai | B)
Ai
A1 .65 .02 .0130 .
0130/.0305=
.4262
A2 .35 .05 .0175 .0175/.0305
=.5738
1.00 P(B)=.0305 1.0000
PROBLEM
41. A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large consulting
contract. The firm’s management felt bid had a 50-50
change of landing the project. However, the agency to
which the bid was submitted subsequently asked for
additional information. Past experience indicates that that
for 75% of successful bids and 40% of unsuccessful bids
the agency asked for additional information.
a. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful
(that is, prior to the request for additional information).
b. What is the conditional probability of a request for
additional information given that the bid will be
ultimately successful.
c. Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be
successful given a request for additional information.
PROBLEM

Let S1 denote the event of successfully obtaining the project.


S2 is the event of not obtaining the project.
B is the event of being asked for additional information about
a bid.

a. P(S1) = .5
b. P(B | S1) = .75
c. Use Bayes’ theorem to compute the posterior probability that a
request for information indicates a successful bid.
Bayes’ Theorem Example

■ A drilling company has estimated a 40%


chance of striking oil for their new well.
■ A detailed test has been scheduled for more
information. Historically, 60% of successful
wells have had detailed tests, and 20% of
unsuccessful wells have had detailed tests.
■ Given that this well has been scheduled for a
detailed test, what is the probability
that the well will be successful?

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-74


Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

■ Let S = successful well


U = unsuccessful well
■ P(S) = 0.4 , P(U) = 0.6 (prior probabilities)
■ Define the detailed test event as D
■ Conditional probabilities:
P(D|S) = 0.6 P(D|U) = 0.2
■ Goal is to find P(S|D)

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-75


Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

Apply Bayes’ Theorem:

So the revised probability of success, given that this well


has been scheduled for a detailed test, is 0.667
4-76
Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

■ Given the detailed test, the revised probability


of a successful well has risen to 0.667 from
the original estimate of 0.4

Prior Conditional Joint Revised


Event Prob.
Prob. Prob. Prob.
S (successful) 0.4 0.6 (0.4)(0.6) = 0.24 0.24/0.36 = 0.667
U (unsuccessful) 0.6 0.2 (0.6)(0.2) = 0.12 0.12/0.36 = 0.333

Sum = 0.36

4-77
Counting Rules

4-78
Learning Objective

■ In many cases, there are a large number of


possible outcomes.

■ In this topic, you learn various counting


rules for such situations.

4-79
Counting Rules
■ Rules for counting the number of possible
outcomes
■ Counting Rule 1:
■ If any one of k different mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive events can occur on each of
n trials, the number of possible outcomes is equal to

kn
■ Example
■ If you roll a fair die 3 times then there are 63 = 216 possible
outcomes

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-80


Counting Rules
(continued)

■ Counting Rule 2:
■ If there are k1 events on the first trial, k2 events on
the second trial, … and kn events on the nth trial, the
number of possible outcomes is
(k1)(k2)…(kn)

■ Example:
■ You want to go to a park, eat at a restaurant, and see a
movie. There are 3 parks, 4 restaurants, and 6 movie
choices. How many different possible combinations are
there?
■ Answer: (3)(4)(6) = 72 different possibilities
Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-81
Counting Rules
(continued)

■ Counting Rule 3:
■ The number of ways that n items can be arranged in
order is
n! = (n)(n – 1)…(1)
■ Example:
■ You have five books to put on a bookshelf. How many
different ways can these books be placed on the shelf?

■ Answer: 5! = (5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 120 different possibilities

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-82


Counting Rules
(continued)
■ Counting Rule 4:
■ Permutations: The number of ways of arranging X
objects selected from n objects in order is

■ Example:
■ You have five books and are going to put three on a
bookshelf. How many different ways can the books be
ordered on the bookshelf?

■ Answer: different possibilities

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education 4-83


Counting Rules
(continued)

■ Counting Rule 5:
■ Combinations: The number of ways of selecting X
objects from n objects, irrespective of order, is

■ Example:
■ You have five books and are going to select three are to
read. How many different combinations are there, ignoring
the order in which they are selected?

■ Answer: different possibilities

4-84
Starter 6.0.1

■ Suppose you have 6 different textbooks in your


backpack that you want to put on a bookshelf.
How many ways can the 6 books be arranged
on the shelf?
Objectives

■ Use organized lists and tree (branching)


diagrams to list all possible outcomes of a trial.
■ Identify whether permutation or combination is
appropriate to count the number of outcomes of
a trial.
■ Use formulas or calculator commands to
evaluate permutation and combination
problems.
Counting Outcomes
■ There are three principle ways to count all the
outcomes of a trial.

1. Draw a tree diagram


■ Often a simple multiplication is enough
2. Systematically write all possibilities
3. Use permutation and combination techniques
Example: Tossing Coins

■ Three coins are tossed (or one coin is tossed


three times) and the outcome of heads or tails
is observed.
■ Draw a tree diagram (also called a branching
diagram) that shows all possible outcomes.
■ State a conclusion: How many equally likely
outcomes are there in this problem?
Tree Diagram for 3 Coins
First Second Third
Toss Toss Toss H
H T
H
H T
T
H
H
T T
T H
T

■ So there are 8 different equally likely outcomes.


Write an Organized List

■ For the coin-toss problem we just did, write an


organized list that shows all possible outcomes
(like HHH etc)
■ Here is one possible organization
■ HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT
■ TTT, THT, TTH, THH
■ There are other ways to organize
■ Any method that is systematic (so that no outcomes
are missed) can work
Permutations of n objects
■ Return to the bookshelf question.
■ Suppose we change the problem to arranging 10
books on the shelf. Now how many arrangements
are there?
■ 10 x 9 x 8 x … = 3,628,800
■ The shorthand notation for this is 10! (factorial)
■ In general, there are n! ways to arrange n objects
■ This is called the permutation of n objects
■ The key idea is that order matters
Arranging fewer than all the objects
■ What if there are only 4 slots available on the bookshelf for the 10
books?
■ Then there are 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 = 5040 ways to arrange 4 books out of
a group of 10
■ Notice that this could be viewed as

■ If we let n = the total number of objects and r = the number chosen


and arranged, then we could conclude that the number of ways to
arrange n objects taken r at a time is

■ This can be quickly evaluated by (nPr)


■ Try it now on your calculator with n = 10 and r = 4
Example

■ How many three-letter “words” can be made


from the letters A, B, C, and D?
■ You can use your calculator to answer this.
■ What are n and r in this problem?
■ Don’t worry that many of them are not real words; we don’t
care in this context.
■ Write an organized list of all the possible
“words”
■ Be systematic; be sure you write them all.
Three-letter “words”
ABC ABD ACD BCD
ACB ADB ADC BDC
BCA BDA DCA CDB
BAC BAD DAC CBD
CAB DAB CAD DBC
CBA DBA CDA DCB

■ Notice that being organized helps find all 24


permutations
■ Notice also that ABC is different from ACB because in
permutation order matters
■ Suppose we don’t care about order. Then we are looking
at combination, not permutation.
■ How many combinations of three letters can be made
from an alphabet with four letters?
Three-letter “words”
ABC ABD ACD BCD
ACB ADB ADC BDC
BCA BDA DCA CDB
BAC BAD DAC CBD
CAB DAB CAD DBC
CBA DBA CDA DCB

■ When order does not matter, ABC is the same as ACB (etc.), so
there are only 4 combinations in the 24 permutations.
■ They can be seen in the 4 columns
■ Notice that there are 3! (which is r!) permutations of each
combination.
■ They can be seen in the 6 rows
■ So to get the number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time,
divide permutations by r!
■ The formula is
Examples

■ How many ways are there to form a 3 member


subcommittee from a group of 12 people?
■ How many ways are there to choose a
president, vice-president, and secretary from a
group of 12 people?
More Examples
■ There are 5 cabins in the woods at a certain
vacation spot. Each cabin has a path that leads
to each of the other cabins. How many paths
are there in all?
■ This is the combination of 5 things taken 2 at a time
(order does not matter), so 5C2=10
■ There are 100 communications satellites orbiting
earth. Each satellite needs a transmit and
receive channel to talk to each of the other
satellites. How many channels are needed?
■ This time AB is different from BA, so use permutation:
100P2=9900
■ How many pentagons can be drawn from the
vertices of a regular 13-gon?
■ Combination: 13C5=1287
Homework
■ Create and solve two story problems which
illustrate the differences between combinations
and permutations.
■ Create and solve a problem involving the permutation
of n things taken r at a time.
■ Create and solve a problem involving the combination
of n things taken r at a time.

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