A Ten Year Plan: EPA Global Change Research Program

EPA Global Change Research Program
A TEN YEAR PLAN
Presentation to 13th Symposium

on Global Change Studies
Janet L. Gamble, Ph.D.

National Center for Environmental Assessment
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
January 14, 2002

Overview
 Key elements and conceptual framework of EPA Global Change
Research Program
 Integration of Issue and Place-based Research and Assessment
 Contribution of Assessment Findings to Decision Process
 Next Steps for the Program

Essential Elements of the EPA Global Change Research Program
Assessment of Assess the potential consequences of global change for human

Consequences health, ecosystems, and social well-being in the U.S.
Science for decision Provide scientific information to support decision making by policy
making makers, resource managers, and other stakeholders.
Independent &  Variability in climate (e.g., El Nino, droughts, floods)

Interactive Effects  Climate change
of Multiple  Land-use change
Stressors
 UV radiation
Adaptation Focus on adaptation – building resilience to global change, while

Strategies responding to both risks and opportunities.
Examine how humans contribute to global change and respond to

Human Dimensions
its consequences.

Global Change Research Program’s Conceptual Framework
KEYS to the FRAMEWORK:

 Parallel process of research and assessment.
 Interaction with stakeholders throughout the research and assessment process.
 The goal is to develop a credible science base to inform decision making.
Problem Charac
Form Analysis Conseqs Communication
Assessment Assessment
Stakeholder Inform
Input Decisions
Research Research
Generate Test Evaluate
Hypotheses Hypotheses Results

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT
 The EPA GCRP knows that development of science to

support decision making hinges on the inclusion of
stakeholders throughout the assessment process.
 Stakeholders help to establish the goals of the

assessment by
- identifying specific information needs
- providing expertise
- providing data and information on a variety of topics
including public values, equity considerations, and
relevant decision processes.
 The uncertainties and information needs that

stakeholders help to identify become the basis for
prioritized research agendas.

The Ten Year Plan for Issue & Place-Based Research & Assessment
Issue-Based Place-Based
Human Health Water Quality
Great Lakes
Weather-related morbidity Pollutants & pathogens
Water & vector-borne disease Biocriteria
Airborne allergens
Air pollutant health effects
Gulf Coast
Air Quality Ecosystems
Prelim ambient air pollutants Aquatic ecosystem watersheds

Ambient air pollutants Aquatic ecosystems coastal
Invasive species Mid-Upper
Ecosystem services Atlantic
Note the extensive interactions within issues, across

issues, and between issue and place-based efforts

Upcoming Research & Assessment: Global Change & Human Health
 Weather-related Morbidity: Heat Stress / Accidental Injury
 Water and Vector-Borne Diseases.
 Airborne Allergies.
 Air Pollution Health Effects.

Upcoming Research & Assessment: Global Change & Ecosystems
 Aquatic Ecosystems.
 Place-based Assessment.
• San Pedro in Arizona
• San Francisco Bay Watershed
• Washington DC area Watersheds
 Protection of Ecosystem Services.
 Invasive Nonindigenous Species.

Upcoming Research & Assessment: Global Change & Air Quality
 Regional Weather Patterns under
Climate Change.
 Global Change Effects on Emissions
(anthropogenic and biogenic).
 Societal Change, Technological
Advance, and Emissions.
 Global Change and Air Quality.

Upcoming Research & Assessment: Global Change & Water Quality
 Climate Change and Land Use
Change Effects on Pollutant Loads.
 Impacts of Storm Surge and Sea
Level Rise on Water Supplies.
 Global Change and Implications
for Biocriteria.

EPA’s Support of the USGCRP First National Assessment Process
Great Lakes
University of Michigan
Mid-Atlantic
Pennsylvania State University
Human Health Gulf Coast

Johns Hopkins University Southern University

Next Steps: Spin-off of the Great Lakes Regional Assessment
The Great Lakes Regional Assessment team has

hosted workshops to evaluate how assessment
findings can inform decision processes.
 Great Lakes Water Levels (March 2001)
- Loss of a foot of carrying capacity on a 1000 foot

vessel leaves 3240 tons behind @ 50 trips per year
results in revenue loss for 162,000 tons
 Fisheries & Aquatic Ecosystems (June 2001)
 Forests and Terrestrial Ecosystems (TBA)
 Winter Recreation (TBA)
 Agricultural Productivity (TBA)

FY 2002 and Beyond: Next Steps for EPA’s GCRP
Maintain commitment to assessment of

global change within regions and
sectors.
During the next year, EPA will release 4
new RFAs for the next phase of
assessments:
 Great Lakes region
 Mid-Upper Atlantic region
 Gulf Coast region
 Human Health sector
 Special emphasis on examining

the interface of science and decision
making.
 Continued integration of
stakeholders into the process of
research and assessment.

Global Change Research Program @ www.epa.gov/globalresearch

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EPA Global Change Research Program

A TEN YEAR PLAN

Presentation to 13th Symposium

Janet L. Gamble, Ph.D.

January 14, 2002

EPA Global Change Research Program

 Key elements and conceptual framework of EPA Global Change

 Integration of Issue and Place-based Research and Assessment

 Contribution of Assessment Findings to Decision Process

 Next Steps for the Program

EPA Global Change Research Program

Assessment of Assess the potential consequences of global change for human

Independent &  Variability in climate (e.g., El Nino, droughts, floods)

Adaptation Focus on adaptation – building resilience to global change, while

Examine how humans contribute to global change and respond to

EPA Global Change Research Program

KEYS to the FRAMEWORK:

EPA Global Change Research Program

 The EPA GCRP knows that development of science to

 Stakeholders help to establish the goals of the

 The uncertainties and information needs that

EPA Global Change Research Program

Prelim ambient air pollutants Aquatic ecosystem watersheds

Note the extensive interactions within issues, across

EPA Global Change Research Program

 Weather-related Morbidity: Heat Stress / Accidental Injury

 Water and Vector-Borne Diseases.

 Air Pollution Health Effects.

EPA Global Change Research Program

• San Pedro in Arizona

• San Francisco Bay Watershed

• Washington DC area Watersheds

 Protection of Ecosystem Services.

 Invasive Nonindigenous Species.

EPA Global Change Research Program

 Regional Weather Patterns under

 Global Change Effects on Emissions

(anthropogenic and biogenic).

 Societal Change, Technological

Advance, and Emissions.

 Global Change and Air Quality.

EPA Global Change Research Program

 Climate Change and Land Use

Change Effects on Pollutant Loads.

 Impacts of Storm Surge and Sea

Level Rise on Water Supplies.

 Global Change and Implications

EPA Global Change Research Program

Human Health Gulf Coast

EPA Global Change Research Program

The Great Lakes Regional Assessment team has

 Great Lakes Water Levels (March 2001)

- Loss of a foot of carrying capacity on a 1000 foot

 Fisheries & Aquatic Ecosystems (June 2001)

 Forests and Terrestrial Ecosystems (TBA)

 Winter Recreation (TBA)

 Agricultural Productivity (TBA)

EPA Global Change Research Program

Maintain commitment to assessment of