Group 5

CHAPTER: 10 Ayesha Shakya (177092)

REASONING Alexa Rajbhandari (177083)

Sabina Gurung (177035)

ABOUT CASUAL Aabhash Shrestha (177095)

Aadarsha Ghimire (177032)

EXPLANATION Nikhil Shrestha (177101)

Sujin K.C (177044)
IDENTIFYING
We often encounter situations in which someone is
trying to persuade us of a point of view by
presenting us with reasons for accepting it. This is
often called ‘arguing a case’ or ‘presenting an
argument’. Sometimes, it is easy to see what
reasoning is being presented, but sometimes it
isn’t. Similarly, when we are presenting a case
ourselves, sometimes it is easy for others to grasp
what we are saying and sometimes it isn’t.
PROVIDING
REASONS
FOR
SOMETHING
Is the process by which you reach to a
conclusion after thinking about all facts
 CASUAL EXPLANATIONS
Tries to show the cause and effect relationships
REASONING ABOUT
CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

Much of our reasoning is concerned with causal

explanations for events or states of affairs.

Whether we are trying to work out an

explanation for ourselves or wishing to assess an
explanation which has been offered by someone
else, we need to be clear about the kind of
reasoning which is appropriate where causal
explanations of various kinds are concerned
 THE PATTERN OF REASONING IN
MOST CASUAL EXPLANATION
.

1. SIMPLE REASONING

Sometimes it is not at all difficult to

identify the cause of something
because we just see what happens
(or observe it with other senses)
and the cause is obvious
The cause is clearly known,
observed, experienced or felt.
Simple cause and effect .
 2. COMPLEX REASONING
However, most causes are less obvious and
the reasoning which justifies accepting less
obvious causal claims needs to be more
complex
Cause is difficult to identify
Various probability
Need investigation and detailed analysis
Both observations as well as theory is used
• Cause of death and this may be
far from obvious
• Obvious suspicion (hypothesis)
• But there are other possibilities
too and the police will need to
find
• Need evidence which rules out
other possibilities
• Evidence found and confidence
in conclusion about the cause of
death
This is fundamentally the pattern in reasoning about all causal
explanations where the cause is not immediately obvious; there will
be many differences of detail in detective work, historical enquiries
and scientific investigations, but this pattern is common:

1. Given what we want to explain, what are the possible explanations

and what evidence will support/rebut ?
2. Given the evidence we find, which explanation is most likely and
fits best with everything else we know and believe?
3. How confident can we be that it is the right explanation?
 HYPOTHESIS
Mere supposition or proposed explanation either to be proved or disproved
Made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further
investigation

Hypothesis should always:

 Explain what you expect to happen
 be clear and understandable
 be testable through experiment or observation.
 contain an independent and dependent variable.
 EXAMPLE 1:
Research question: Is there a relationship between sales growth and
expenditure on advertisement?

Hypothesis : Sales growth is directly corelated to expenditure on

advertisement.
 EXAMPLE 2:
Research Question: Does training staff in change management help staff to
cope with change in their organizations?

The hypothesis here predicts that the staffs that undergo training in change
management can easily cope with changes that might occur in their
organizations than perhaps the staff that have been trained in change
management.
 ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS
A statement that directly contradicts the null hypothesis.
This statement is accepted or rejected based on the likelihood of the
opposite hypothesis being true.

Example:
Null Hypothesis: I'm going to win up to $1000
Alternate Hypothesis: I'm going to win more than $1000.
FORMULATION OF HYPOTHESIS
Formulation of hypothesis gives a definite point to the enquiry
Helps in establishing direction in which to proceed
Helps to delimit the field of enquiry

INTEND HYPOTHESIS EVIDENCES CONCLUSIO

CONCLUSION N
EXAMPLE 1:
Argument:
Napoleon must have died of arsenic poisoning whilst in exile on St Helena. Arsenic can
be administered in small doses which will not be noticed but will eventually kill the
victim. Arsenic poisoning leaves traces of arsenic in human hair, and reliable tests
recently showed that Napoleon’s hair contained abnormally large amounts of arsenic.
It had been thought that he died of cancer, but his symptoms included nausea, chills,
weakness and increasing corpulence, which cancer specialists say are not symptoms of
cancer. However, these are typical symptoms of arsenic poisoning according to
specialists.
Causal claim?

Alternative Hypothesis?

Evidences?

Favored hypothesis based on Evidences?

EXAMPLE 2:
Argument:
The guy in the class must have been constantly blinking his eyes due to
Tourette syndrome (TS). People with Tourette syndrome are characterized by repetitive
movements or unwanted sounds (tics) that can't be easily controlled. Common tics of TS
are blinking, coughing, throat clearing, sniffing, and facial movements. It was assumed
that the guy was possessed, but his father was found with the same characteristics of
blinking eyes and one of the cause of TS is genetics.

Causal claim?

Alternative Hypothesis?

Evidences?

Favored hypothesis based on Evidences?

EXAMPLE 3:
Contents regarding Mental Health issues circulating in the social media will make no real impact
to the people who are actually undergoing such issues. While speaking with one of the people
fighting with mental issues, the user found that such posts, instead might act as a trigger for more
mental unrest. It can sometimes even, activate the suicidal thoughts that were dormant before. It
was believed that, such posts ensure the people with the mental health issues that they are not
alone, creating more comfortable environment for them to seek out help. However, such posts
make people with such problems more suffocated, because they cannot find an escape even in the
virtual world and feel pointed out and exposed. Such posts reminded them of what they were
going through.
Causal claim?

Alternative Hypothesis?

Evidences?

Favored hypothesis based on Evidences?

 Intend Hypothesis Evidences Conclusion
Conclusion
 CHARACTERISTIC
WEAKNESSES IN OUR
THINKING ABOUT CAUSES
WHEN THE CAUSE OR CAUSES OF AN
EVENT ARE NOT IMMEDIATELY
OBVIOUS
What should we do?
Look at the historical study
Facts from scientific experiment
Getting knowledge

But, instead of doing these things we do nothing of the kind.

We do not proceed scientifically, historically nor do we do anything in systematic
way
First Weakness:
Jumping into conclusions and accepting the first explanation which comes into our heads

Tending to jump to the nearest explanation that comes in our mind

Not looking at possible alternative explanations

Example 1:
An employee avoiding eye contact while being questioned over a missing item.
First conclusion: He feels guilty for the crime he has done
Other explanation: Low self-esteem or their embarassment at their integrity being
questioned.

Example 2:
XYZ bank has lend certain amount to its customers but the customers is not able to make
interest payment on specified time.

Example 3:
When you get in your car to go for your work but it doesn’t start.
Second Weakness:
We fail to consider all the relevant evidence and we take the bits of evidence which support
our favoured explanation and ignore the others or we do not even look for conflicting
evidence.

Example 1:
Cigarette smokers commonly pay more attention to the cases of smokers who have lived
long and healthy lives than to the much larger percentage of smokers when compared with
non-smokers who have suffered ill-health or died early from smoking-related diseases.
Example 2:
Coca-Cola promotes its product with the tagline spread happiness but it ignores the health
hazards it brings to the customer health.

Example 3:
Imagine that a person holds a belief that left-handed people are more creative than right-
handed people.
Whenever this person encounters a person that is both left-handed and creative, they place
greater importance on this "evidence" that supports what they already believe.
Example 4:
Suppose an investor hears a rumor that a company is on the
verge of declaring bankruptcy. Based on this information, the
investor considers selling the stock. When they go online to
read the latest news about the company, they read only the
stories that confirm the likely bankruptcy scenario and miss a
story about a new product the company has just launched that
is expected to perform well and increase sales. Instead of
holding the stock, the investor sells it at a substantial loss just
before it turns around and climbs to an all-time hig h.
Some of the ways to avoid such fault while thinking about causes would be:
Considering several possible causes of the event or phenomenon

Asking yourself what evidence would favor these various alternatives

Look for the evidence

THE BASIC QUESTION FOR
SKILLFUL CAUSAL Thinking Map

EXPLANATIONS
THINKING MAP
1 What are the possibilities in this case?
2 What evidence would count for or against the likelihood of
these possibilities (if you could find it)?
3 What evidence do you have already, or can you gather,
that is relevant to determining what causes what?
4 Which possibility is rendered most likely by the evidence?
(What explanation fits best with everything else we know
and believe?)
1. POSSIBILITIES IN THE CASE
We need to be Imaginative about Other Possible Explanations
If Question is relatively Simple:
 Cause of Headache among Students during COVID-19:
Migraine, Too much of screen time. Weak Eyes, Sinus
If Question is Complex:
 We have to be Creative
Cause of Origin of COVID-19?
Bats, Pangolins, Snakes
 Lab Grown
 Developed in Nations other then China
 Avatar of God to Punish Non-Vegetarians
2. WHICH EVIDENCE FOR OR AGAINST
THE POSSIBILITIES WOULD COUNT?
If the case matters:

 Think of alternative possible explanations

 Also, List some of the things that would support or tell against these
alternatives
2. WHICH EVIDENCE FOR OR AGAINST
THE POSSIBILITIES WOULD COUNT?
Cause of Origin of COVID-19:
1. Wuhan Seafood Market: Bats, Snakes, Pangolins Origin of SARS, MERS with same
underlying pathogens linked with
Camels
2. Wuhan Lab: US based Broad Institute’s Paper in
China looking for World Dominance and
ties with Harvard suggest that the virus is suited the Slow Spread of the virus in China in
to human transmission comparison to other nations

A man in France was infected on

3. Outside China: December 27, Number of cases arrived
in Italy was much earlier than thought

4. Avatar of God to Punish Non-Vegetarians

Claimed by Hindu Mahasabha
NOT SCIENTIFIC AND VEGETARIANS HAVE ALSO BEEN IMPACTED!
3. WHICH EVIDENCE IS RELEVANT
DETERMINING WHAT CAUSES WHAT
We need to find evidence which proves our claim
For example,
In the case of a murder, what do detectives look for as evidence?
They look for forensic evidences such as fingerprints on the weapon used to
murder someone
These fingerprints would prove that A has murdered B
4. POSSIBILITY RENDERED
MOST LIKELY BY THE
EVIDENCE
Given the Alternatives, we should choose the best one
Tentative conclusion: Signaled by saying something like,
‘This seems most likely but the evidence is not at all strong.’
For example,
Cause of Origin of COVID-19: Seafood Market Wuhan
Confident Conclusion: In case of murder, we can confidently claim that as Mr.
A’s fingerprints were found in gun used in murder of Mr. B, and there is a CCTV
footage of Mr. A running away from the place where the murder took place.
IN SHORT
To summarize, for explanatory reasoning to be successful it must:
(i) Consider reasonable alternatives,
(ii) Find evidence which
(a) Rules out other possible explanations and
(b) Supports the favored explanation, and
(iii) Fit well with everything else we know.
NAPOLEON BONAPARTE’S
DEATH
Napoleon must have died of arsenic poisoning whilst in
exile on St Helena. Arsenic can be administered in small
doses which will not be noticed but will eventually kill the
victim. Arsenic poisoning leaves traces of arsenic in human
hair, and reliable tests recently showed that Napoleon’s hair
contained abnormally large amounts of arsenic. It had been
thought that he died of cancer, but his symptoms included
nausea, chills, weakness and increasing corpulence, which
cancer specialists say are not symptoms of cancer. However,
these are typical symptoms of arsenic poisoning according
to specialists.
NAPOLEON BONAPARTE’S
DEATH
Presents two arguments:
1. Arsenic Poisoning:
Lot of Evidence – Symptoms, Hair included arsenic
2. Alternate Hypothesis - Cancer:
Claimed by Doctors
He doesn’t show symptoms of Cancer
3. Other ways:
Get Arsenic in hair to make them shine, as done for Horses
Since an autopsy at the time determined that stomach cancer
was the cause of his death , we can conclude that the reason
of his death was caner
GOOD EXAMPLE -BLACK
LIVES MATTER
An article on Black Lives Matter Protest in UK by BBC figures 5
reasons:
R1 Brutal Police Tactics: George Floyd
R2 Deaths in Police Custody:
Black people are X2 likely to die
R3 COVID-19: Ethnic Minority hit hard financially
R4 Education among Youths
R5 Instances when Blacks where charged unnecessarily
BAD EXAMPLE: INDIAN
GENERAL ON NEPAL–INDIA
BORDER DISPUTE
Indian Army Chief Manoj Mukund Naravane:
“The road which we have constructed is on the west side of the river. There is a
reason that they might have raised the issue at the behest of someone else (China)”

An Argument rather than a Causal Explanation

The Speaker is trying to Persuade
‘Hypothesis’, ‘explains’, ‘causes’ and ‘evidence’
Verbs or phrases which imply a causal relationship
 LANGUAGE OF
CAUSAL EXPLANATION
•Inductive reasoning

•Hypothesis, evidence, explains, causes

•“The theory says”, “the fact/data/suggest”, “is/isn’t consistent”,

etc

•Reasons analogy and experts of the field

•Time and Location

 NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT
CAUSES
LOCKDOWN, ONLINE
COVID-19
CLASS
Necessary cause

HIgher Attendance Higher GPA

Sufficient cause
•Criteria of causes
•Necessary and Sufficient
•Sufficient but not necessary
The distinctive yellow-green colours of Van Gogh’s paintings
of landscapes and domestic interiors may be due to the side-
effects of his taking the drug digitalis. Although there are few
medical records to prove the point, it is generally known that
digitalis was commonly prescribed during the time Van Gogh
lived. Also, Van Gogh’s portraits of the doctor who treated
him show the doctor holding a stem of foxglove, the very
plant from which digitalis is made.
•Weak evidence

•Additional causal factor

•Time and location

MAKING THINGS FIT
TOGETHER
THINGS THAT FIT
TOGETHER
We have a mental framework of beliefs. A web of beliefs.

We tend to make the best possible sense of things, by trying to fit the evidences we
have, in our mental web of beliefs.

This implies that, the more we know about various topics, the better we are able to
judge the plausibility of an explanation.
PINE TREES (सल्लाको रुख)
• Doesn’t require fertile soil to grow.
• Does not require much maintenance.
• Fast-growing species.

Based on these evidences that we already

know ( set of beliefs), the government in the
Panchayat era, planted millions of pine trees
in the barren hills.
“A few years into the pine plantation, we started noticing a depletion in water flow in all 10
springs. By 2010, eight of the springs had completely dried up; the remaining two
disappeared after the 2015 earthquakes.”

Source: https://tkpo.st/2Z7T48h

Haphazard road construction?

Or
Pine Trees?
EVIDENCES
Study on Gosainkunda Community Forest blames Pine Trees.

The university of Perth also found that the pine trees were consuming more water
than the trees they replaced. Fearing Perth would run out of water, the state
government then started clearing the pine plantation.

Source: https://kathmandupost.com/opinion/2016/05/01/deep-roots
REASONINGS
R1. Pine Trees consume a huge amount of water, and they were drying up
underground water levels.

R2. Pine Trees also shred needles, which fall to the ground, and block the waterflow.
Furthermore, these pine needles are acidic in nature, which turns the soil acidic,
hampering the growth of other vegetation.

Jeopardising the livelihood of Communities dependent on forest.

TAKEAWAYS
Harder to reconcile with reasonings which challenge our conventional set of beliefs and
does not fit into that model.

Also shows that our conclusion could be largely about what “fits” with everything else we
know and believe.

Critically thinking outside of your own set of beliefs and asking questions challenging your
set of beliefs could be more informative and enlightening.
SUMMARY
TOPICS COVERED
Causal Explanation and its examples
Weakness in our thinking Causal
Basic Question for Skillful Causal Explanation
Language of Causal Explanation
Making things fit together
Example:

According to Bardiya District Police Office, the incident occurred

when two motorcycles collided with each other at Bangai, injuring
three. The reason for the collision might have been due
to………………………
Weakness:

•considered only one possible cause and accept it without

considering other possibilities.
•attended to only some of the relevant evidence in
determining what causes or caused something.
Example:

According to Bardiya District Police Office, the incident occurred

when two motorcycles collided with each other at Bangai, injuring
three.
To remedy these faults, we need to ask the right questions when
considering reasoning to a causal explanation. These are:

1. What are the possibilities in this case?

2. What evidence would count for or against the likelihood of these possibilities
3. What evidence do you have already, or can you gather, that is relevant to
determining what causes what?
4. Which possibility is rendered most likely by the evidence?
Example:

The Porsche he was travelling in crashed into a concrete lamp post and tree at high
speed before catching fire, killing him and his friend Roger Rodas, who was driving.
Meadow Walker's legal claim her father's seatbelt was defective. The authorities also
considered the possibility of a drag race on the road but were unable to find a second
associated vehicle. The investigators also considered the possibility of drug overdose
however a post-mortem revealed he had no drugs or alcohol in his system when he
died. Many sources also believed the accident was caused by over speeding. The
investigators who analyzed surveillance video of the accident concluded the that the
car's speed at 94mph in a 45mph zone and age of the tires were the cause of the
crash.
REFERENCES
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52997848
https://www.hindustantimes.com/more-lifestyle/covid-19-outbreak-here-s-all-we-kn
ow-about-the-origins-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/story-d5GScrjztEiPrtTpDgkPLL.
html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnBEACvHjcU