Chapter 5 Capacity Management
Chapter 5 Capacity Management
Chapter 5 Capacity Management
Management
They say the universe is expanding. That should help with the traffic.
—Steven
Wright
Automatic car wash Cars per hour Availability of water and chemicals;
reliability of the car wash (Is it
frequently down for repairs?)
Measures of Capacity
Theoretical /Designed/Best
Operating Capacity – The maximum
output capability, allowing for no adjustments for
preventive maintenance, unplanned downtime, or
the like.
© 2016 APICS Dictionary
Effective capacity acts as a lid on actual output. So, the real key to improving
capacity utilization is to increase Effective Capacity focusing on the constraints
on effective capacity.
Need to understand:
•Theory of Constraints
•Little’s Law (Ch. 11)
•Theory of Waiting Lines
(Ch. 10)
•Learning Curves (Ch. 6)
Sum of the Task Times (25 mins) : Maximum cycle time if we are to do
the job in one station by one worker in the sequence.
Assume a 8 hour shift (8*60= 480 mins.)
Output Produced: 480/25= 32 units / day
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Understanding Constraints
Let us suppose that fabrication of a product can be divided in 5 elemental
tasks, precedence relationship, task times and we produce them in high
volume:
1 Min 7 min 10
5 min 2 min
min
Comp : 0+1=1 : : 8+10 = 18
Comp 1+7=8 Comp Comp 18+5 = 23
Comp : 23+2= 25
Start: .8: Start: 28
Start: 1 Start:: 18 Start: 33
Units will flow out of the system every 10minute = Minimum Cycle Time
What is the efficiency of the above line? Output Produced: 480 / 10 = 48
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Understanding Constraints
Now, suppose you want invest in a machine to increase capacity – which
machine would you buy and why?
1 Min 7 min 10
5 min 2 min
min
Comp : 0+1=1 : : 8+10 = 18
Comp 1+7=8 Comp Comp 18+5 = 23
Comp : 23+2= 25
Start: .8: Start: 28
Start: 1 Start:: 18 Start: 33
Units will flow out of the system every X minute = Minimum Cycle Time
What is the efficiency of the above line?
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Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Understanding Constraints
Units will flow out of the system every 7 minute = Minimum Cycle Time = 7 minutes.
What is the efficiency of the above line? Output Produced: 480 / 7 = 68.57
10
min
Start:: .1 Start: 8
Start: 0 Start: 18
Start: 23
10min
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Theory of Constraints
Nearly all products and services are created through a series of linked
processes, and in every case, there is at least one process step that limits the
throughput for the entire chain – the Constraint / Bottleneck
10
min
Start:: .1 Start: 8
Start: 0 Start: 18
Start: 23
10min
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Assembly Line Design
The Station (process, machine, etc.) that has the highest utilization rate is the
bottleneck.
Start:: .1 Start: 8 Start: 23
Start: 0 Start: 18
10
1 Min 7 min min 5 min 2 min
Comp : 0+1=1 : 8+10 = 18 : 23+2= 25
:
Comp 1+7=8 Comp Comp 18+5 = 23 Comp
Capacity:1/Proc Time: 1/1=1unit/min 1/7= .143 unit/min 1/10 = .1 unit/min 1/5=.2 unit/min 1/2 = .5 unit/min
Effective capacity per worker 6 per hour 4 per hour 20 per hour
Labor cost per worker $15 per hour $20 per hour $10 per hour
Even with all the expansions, Tracy notices that her cashier is not even close to
being fully utilized. May be there are …………………………….
Process Metric – a scale or measure that informs us about the performance and capability of
a process.
1.WIP(I)– the number of flow units within a process which can be measured in physical units
(parts, people, jobs, $ values etc.). Tells us how much “stuff” is in the process;
process takes up space
and costs money.
2.Flow Rate (R) – the rate at which flow units are processed by the system. Tells us how
much time is spent in the process.
process
3.Flow time (T) – the time a flow unit spends in a process, from start to finish including any
reworks, restarts due to yield loss or other disruptions.
disruptions
The rate at which units travel through a process. As a rate, it is measured in “Flow
Units per Unit of Time” :
Dollars $ per Week
Kilograms per Hour
People per month
It is always expressed in terms of some units (e.g. boxes, dollars, people) “per unit
2-14
of time”. Without this, it is then just inventory.
I=R*T
2-17
2-18
Average: 125
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Check Your Understanding: Example
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Let's Check Our Understanding:
Capacity & Bottleneck
50%
50%
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Let's Check Our Understanding:
Capacity & Bottleneck
50%
50%
Notice that in this hypothetical line, the processing time and rates are identical and
equals 1 penny every 2 minutes or a Flow rate of 0.5 pennies per minute.
BNR: So, the bottle neck time is 2 minutes and bottle neck rate is:
BNR = .5 pennies/ minute
= 30 per hour
= 30 x 24 = 720 units / day
The raw processing time it takes for a single penny to traverse an empty line is:
RPT = 8 minutes
Now let us test Mr. Little’s law: WIP = Throughput Rate x Flow Time
Case #1:
Let us take a WIP level of 1 and release a penny blank into the line and wait until it is
completely finished before we release another penny blank. Throughput Rate = 1/8mins
= 0.125 pennies per minute; and Flow Time = 8 minutes.
If we release 2 penny blanks at a time, in the long run pennies will follow each other
and taking 8 minutes to get through and resulting in 2 pennies every 8 minutes. Hence,
Throughput Rate: 2/8 = 0.25 pennies per minute Flow Time = 8 minutes
Release 3 penny blanks: Throughput Rate = 3/8 = .375 pennies/minute; FT = 8
Release 4 penny blanks: Throughput rate = 4/8 = .5 pennies / minute; FT = 8
6 minutes after the after the 4 blanks are released, the first penny reaches the
last station, and each four stations has 1 penny to work on.
From this point on, all stations are constantly busy – a penny finishes every 2
minutes, hence at a rate of =0.5 penny per minute. This is the max rate the line
can achieve – the Bottleneck Rate BNR = .5; & Flow Time = 8 minutes
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Let's Check Our Understanding :
Critical WIP
Case #1:
the Bottleneck Rate BNR = .5
Flow Time = 8 minutes: This is the minimum Raw Processing Time (RPT) as no
penny will have to wait before beginning to work.
Critical WIP: This WIP level, which results in maximum Throughput Rate and minimum
Flow Time is called the “CRITICAL WIP” : BNR X FT = 0.5 X 8 = 4
Note that here BNR is the highest and Flow Time is the lowest. = CWIP
Now, if we increase the WIP level and release 5 penny blanks, waiting will begin to
occur. There will always be one penny blank waiting Infront of the first station, as there
are only four workstations.
o The result will be that, while your Throughput rate will still be 0.5 pennies per
minute, your Flow Time will be 8 + 2 = 10 minutes due to the waiting.
This is the best-case scenario for: WIP = Throughput Rate X Flow Time.
•Your strategy would then be to maintain WIP right at the Critical Level –
maximize throughput rate and minimize Flow Time.
Any less WIP will lose throughput rate with no decrease Flow Time.
Any more WIP, we increase Flow Time with no increase Throughput rate.
• For Balanced Lines: Note that the Critical WIP in this example is equal to
the # of workstations. This is always the case when the line consists of
stations with equal capacity – we call it a balances line
• For unbalanced lines, CWP will be less than the number of machines, but
still will have the property of being WIP level that achieves the maximum
Throughput Rate and minimum Flow Time:
WIP = Throughput Rate X Flow Time
So, the CWIP level represents the “realistic ideal” WIP level.
Now let us assume a worst-case scenario: Let’s say we release the jobs in batches.
So, all four jobs released get processed in Station #1, then move to Station #2 and so
on.
•So, total processing time for the any batch of four will take 8+8+8+8 = 32 minutes or:
Flow Time = 32 minutes (where w = 4 X Raw processing time = 8)
Throughput Rate = 4/32 = 1/8 = 0.125 jobs per minute. (One fourth of BNR)
= 7.5 jobs /hour
= 7.5 X 24 = 180 jobs / day
WIP Level = Throughput Rate X Flow Time
= .125 X 32 = 4
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Let's Check Our Understanding :
Critical WIP (Worst Case Performance)
Now let us assume a worst-case scenario: Let’s say we release the jobs in batches.
So, all four jobs released get processed in Station #1, then move to Station #2 and so
on.
•So, total processing time for the any batch of four will take 8+8+8+8 = 32 minutes or:
Flow Time = 32 minutes (where w = 4 X Raw processing time = 8)
Throughput Rate = 4/32 = 1/8 = 0.125 jobs per minute. (One fourth of BNR)
= 7.5 jobs /hour
= 7.5 X 24 = 180 jobs / day
WIP Level = Throughput Rate X Flow Time
= .125 X 32 = 4
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Let's Check Our Understanding :
Critical WIP: (Practical Worst-Case Performance)
•Over the past several months, throughput has averaged 1,400 panels per day,
• Or 71.8 panels per hour (assuming they work three shifts per day, or 19.5 productive
hours per day after considering breaks, lunch, shift change etc.).
•WIP in the line has averaged 47,000 panels
•Flow Time has been a total of 34 days or 816 hours
•Customer Service has averaged about 75%
So, the question is, how is this operation doing??
Let's assume the values are averages and as such account for different types of
PCBs with different routings.
The process ratings also averages reflecting all detractors (e.g., machine failures,
setup times, operator efficiency etc.).
The process time represents the average time a panel spends being worked on at
a process, which includes time for waiting for detractors.
Good Region
Bad Region
Worst case
WIP Level
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Variance Consumes Capacity 2
• Variability in:
• Outputs: product variety and variable schedules.
• Processes: quality variance, resource availability,
and processing speed.
• Inputs: variance in quality and delivery.
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Variance Consumes Capacity 3
Equation 3.2
c2a +cp2 u
Wait time tp
2 1u
ca coefficient of variation Standard deviation average
of job arrival times
cp Coefficient of variation of job processing times
u Utilization of the work center
tp average pricessing cycle time for jobs
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Wait Time: Example 2
2 1 u
p
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Wait Time: Example 4
c +c u 2 2
2 1 u
22 1.52 .85
3
2 1 0.85
53.125 minutes
=0.8854 hours
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Example
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Example – Manufacturing Plant (1 of 4)
• A manufacturing plant has 100 orders arrive each day. All orders go
through the order processing area, where, on average, there are 25 orders
in the system.
• Of the incoming orders , 70% are “A” orders routed through work center A
where average inventory is 14
• The remaining 30% are “B” orders routed through work center B where on
the average inventory is 1.5 orders.
70 orders /day
70%
00 orders/ day
30% 30 orders /day
Manufacturing Plant
How long does an order (A or B) stay in the order processing area?
Average Throughput Time
T I / R (25 orders) / (100 orders per day)
0.25 days in order processing
How long does it take an A order to work its way through the plant?
Manufacturing Plant
How long does it take a B order to work its way through the plant?
Amount of time the average B order spends in the plant
Order processing time workcenter B time
0.25 days 0.05 days 0.30 days
Average time an order spends in the plant
70% 0.45 days 30% 0.30 days
0.405 days
How long does it take the average order (A or B) to work its way through the plant?
• Service Times: Assume that they will be constant or vary. When varying
they use the exponential distribution with μ as the service rate.
Process Capacity
• The average utilization of the system is:
p
Process Capacity
• The average time spent waiting is
TW
( )
1
TS
λ2 16
CW 3.2 customers
( λ) 5(1)
λ 4
CS 4 customers
λ 1
λ 4
TW 0.80 minutes, or 48 seconds
( λ) 5(1)
1 1
TS 1 minute
λ 1
Snappy Lube
• Snappy Lube is a quick-change oil center with a single service bay. On
average, Snappy Lube can change a car’s oil in a 10 minutes. Cars arrive,
on average, every 15 minutes.
Arrival rate λ 60 minutes / 15 minutes 4 per hour
Service rate 60 minutes /10 minutes 6 per hour
p
Average utilization 4 / 6 67%
2
Average number of cars waiting 16 /(6 2) 1.33 cars
Cw
( )
Tn T1nb
where:
Tn = resources (usually labor) required for the nth unit
T1 = resources required for the 1st unit
b = ln(Learning percentage)/ln2
6-3
6-4
In 19
6-12
2 80 0.693 4.382
4 64 1.386 4.159
6-12
3. Use Table (next slide) to find the learning rate, LR, given the slope b.
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Relationship between the Learning Rate, LR, and the Slope of the
Learning Curve in a Log-Log Graph (LR = 2Slope)
0.51 – 0.97143 0.61 – 0.71312 0.71 – 0.49411 0.81 – 0.30401 0.91 – 0.13606
0.52 – 0.94342 0.62 – 0.68966 0.72 – 0.47393 0.82 – 0.2863 0.92 – 0.12029
0.53 – 0.91594 0.63 – 0.66658 0.73 – 0.45403 0.83 – 0.26882 0.93 – 0.1047
0.54 – 0.88897 0.64 – 0.64386 0.74 – 0.4344 0.84 – 0.25154 0.94 – 0.08927
0.55 – 0.8625 0.65 – 0.62149 0.75 – 0.41504 0.85 – 0.23447 0.95 – 0.074
0.56 – 0.8365 0.66 – 0.59946 0.76 – 0.39593 0.86 – 0.21759 0.96 – 0.05889
0.57 – 0.81097 0.67 – 0.57777 0.77 – 0.37707 0.87 – 0.20091 0.97 – 0.04394
0.58 – 0.78588 0.68 – 0.55639 0.78 – 0.35845 0.88 – 0.18442 0.98 – 0.02915
0.59 – 0.76121 0.69 – 0.53533 0.79 – 0.34008 0.89 – 0.16812 0.99 – 0.0145
6-14
LO 6-4
• Costs are expressed as a multiple of the initial cost c(1).
• You can simplify cost estimation by considering generic
process initial cost of c(1) = 1.
• Compute cost values for different learning rates and
different cumulative outputs and store data in a table.
• Learning curve coefficients (L CC) – the cost of producing
one unit in a process that has an initial cost of c(1) = 1, a
cumulative output of x, and a learning rate of LR.
6-16
6-17
Total cost 20 c 1 c 2 c 20
Cumulative learning curve coefficient – the cost of
producing x units in a process that has an initial cost of
c(1) = 1 and a learning rate of LR. 6-18
LR
• Estimate the time it will take her to handle her 25th call:
ln(0.80)
T25 T1 25 ln(2)
(5 minutes)(250.32193 )
(5 minutes)(0.355)
1.78 minutes
300
Capacity utilization 0.24
1,250
Machine requirement 0.24 5 1.2
Labor requirement 1.2 3 3.6
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Methods of Evaluating
Capacity Alternatives
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Methods of Evaluating Capacity
Alternatives (1 of 7)
• Cost
• Demand Considerations
• Expected Value
• Decision Trees
• Break-Even Analysis
• Learning Curves
TC = FC +VC* X
TC = total cost
FC = fixed cost
VC = variable cost per unit of business activity
X = amount of business activity
X 64 shipments
Introduction to Materials Management, 8e Copyright © 2017 by Pearson Education, Inc.
Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved
Example – Ellison Seafood Company
where:
EVj = expected value of capacity alternative j
Pi = probability of demand level i
Ci = financial result (cost, revenue, or profit) at demand level i
FC
BEP
R VC
where:
BEP = break-even point
FC = fixed cost
VC = variable cost per unit of business activity
R = revenue per unit of business activity
FC
BEP
R VC
Contracting: BEP $5,000 / $700 7.1 or 8 shipments
Common: BEP $0 / $250 0 shipments
Leasing: BEP $21,000 / $950 22.1 or 23 shipments
The Common Carrier has the lowest BE point – however, they will earn ($1000-750)
$250 on each shipment.
Leasing will bring in about ($1000-$50) $950 after 23 shipments to the bottom line
Careful consideration of risk and expected demand will be necessary
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Stephen N. Chapman All Rights Reserved