CLIMATE CHANGE AND

GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY

SHIBA SANKAR BEHERA
RAVENSHAW MANAGEMENT CENTRE, CUTTACK

1.
The IV ASSESSMENT REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE

According to the 2007 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC), some weather events and extremes will
become more frequent, more widespread and/ore more intense
during the 21st century

Climate change presents a serious threat to the security and

prosperity, because of the destabilizing effects of storms, drought,
and floods

A global CO2 emissions reduction by 30%-50% should be reached

in the timeframe 2030-2050, to drive the stabilization of CO2
concentration at a safe level ( 450-550 ppmv) by the end of the
century, to avoid irreversible changes in the climate system.
 A CONFLICT OF INTEREST
ENERGY SECURITY AND CLIMATE SECURITY

According to IPCC a global emissions reduction by

30%-50% should be reached in the timeframe 2030-
2050, to drive the stabilization of CO2

According to the Reference Scenario in the World

Energy Outlook 2005, world energy consumption will
increase about 55% in the next 25 years, driven by
economic and population growth.
The world energy system will continue to be
dominated by fossil fuels.
The world's rising demand for energy will drive the
increasing of the global CO2 energy related
emissions by 2030 of about 50%-60%

4.
 WORLD CO2 EMISSIONS
AND GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2007

 World Primary Energy Demand

18 000
Other
16 000 renewables Nucle
Bioma
ar
14 000
ss
12 000 Ga
s
10 000
Mtoe

8 000 Coa
6 000 l

4 000
Oi
2 000
l
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising
most in absolute terms

Source: WEO 2007, IEA

6.
Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region

15

Rest of non-
OECD
12
Gigatonnes of 2CO

9 Chi
na Rest of
OECD

6 United States

0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Global emissions increase of about 60% in the next 25 years,

and non OECD countries overtake OECD countries before 2010 .

Source: WEO 2007, IEA

7.
 CO2 ENERGY RELATED EMISSIONS 2000-2100
according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -IPCC (bleu),
US Climate Change Climate Program-CCSP (green) e Shell (red).
( MIT JOINT PROGRAM ON THE SCIENCE AND POLICY OF GLOBAL CHANGE -2008)
2000

9.
2070

10.
 Cumulative Investment, 2005-2030

$20.2 trillion (in $2005)

Electricity
56%
Oil 21%

$11.3 trillion
$4.3 trillion

Biofuels t ri l l
$3.9 trillion
1% $0. 6
i on

Gas 19% Coal 3%

Investment needs exceed $20 trillion – $3 trillion more than previously projected, mainly
because of higher unit costs
Source: WEO 2007, IEA

11.
CO2 per capita emissions 1980-2030
 Stabilizing CO2
Base Case and “Gap” Technologies

Assumed Advances In
•Fossil Fuels
•Energy intensity
•Nuclear
•Renewables
•Biofuels

Gap technologies
•Carbon Capture and
Sequestration
The •Hydrogen
Kyoto
“Gap” • “New Nuclear”
•“New Renewables”

Source: Jae Edmonds, PNNL/Univ

 STABILIZING CO2 AND GLOBAL FAIR COMPETITION IN THE ENERGY MARKET

Stabilizing CO2 request a global long term strategy in

research & innovation, and energy policies, to reduce the “carbon intensity” of the
economy through the development and dissemination of the new renewable and energy
efficiency technologies, biofuels, hydrogen and carbon sequestration, such as nuclear
power;
making the new clean and safe energy sources and technologies available and cost
effective in the emerging economies and in developing world, to address both energy
security and emissions reduction.

To be effective in approaching CO2 stabilization, the measures should be designed and

should start immediately.

Considering the lifetime of power plants and industrial process ( 15 to 30 years ), and taking
into account the IEA estimated dimension of the investments in the global energy system in
the next 20-30 years ( 22 trillion $), the countries in the Climate Change Convention and in
the World Trade Organization should consider

 an equitable global burden sharing of the reduction based on per capita emissions;
 the introduction of rules in the global energy market for the application of progressive
“carbon intensity standard” for the energy technologies;
 a progressive “carbon price” to be applied to fuels and technologies.
TECHNOLOGIES DEVELOPMENT IN BLUE MAP SCENARIO
(IEA- Energy Technologies Perspectives 2008 in support to G8 Plan of Action)
MARGINAL COST ACCORDING TO ACT MAP AND BLUE MAP SCENARIOS
(IEA- Energy Technologies Perspectives 2008 in support to G8 Plan of Action)
 GLOBAL BIOENERGY POTENTIAL
Bioenergy can be “carbon neutral”, effective to reduce the net carbon emissions.
Bioenergy can play a key role in “decarbonizing” the future global energy system
 Energy Consumption/Bioenergy Potential

Source: BP Statistical Review (June/2006)

The tropics are the most suitable area for biofuels

The greater consumption per capita is outside the tropics!

Cancer Tropic

Equator

Capricorn Tropic

Tropical Area Biofuels

 FOOD VERSUS FUEL

The increasing demand for agricultural land for energy production would
provide opportunities for sustained increase in agricultural commodity prices.
This may result in significant resource transfer to rural areas in developing
countries.
In the short term, however, higher commodities prices may negatively affect
access to food for poor people in developing countries, especially net-food
importing developing countries. The increasing use of land for energy crops
production is raising concerns about land availability for all needed purposes,
such as food, feed, energy, grazing and conservation.

Corn based ethanol , because of the volume of corn required and the tax payer
subsidies in developed economies, affect the food system more than sugarcane
based ethanol.

Innovative cellulose based biofuels ( from grasses, trees, agriculture residues

and wastes) will increase the energy efficiency of the production and will reduce
the negative impacts on the food systems.
 THE CHALLENGE OF THE ADAPTATION
Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of
the most volatile and poor regions of the world
Africa and parts of Asia are particularly vulnerable, given their
locations and their limited governmental capacities to respond to
flooding, droughts, and declining food production.

Like armed attacks, some of the effects of climate change could

swiftly kill or endanger large numbers of people and cause such
large-scale disruption that local public health, law enforcement, and
emergency response units would not be able to contain the threat.

The Stern Review estimated that it would cost developing countries

between $ 4 billion and $ 37 billion/year to minimize the climate
change damage
The Global Environment Facility (GEF) adaptation funds amount to
about $ 215 million : their scale should be dramatically expanded

A modest investment in adaptation in poor countries will be much

more effective than responding to state failure or humanitarian
disasters through military and relief operations
 GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS
( MIT JOINT PROGRAM ON THE SCIENCE AND POLICY OF GLOBAL CHANGE -2008)
Regional Distribution of Global Warming

22.
 Drought Projections

23.
25.
 Hurricane Energy and
Sea Surface Temperature
(Emanuel, Nature 2005)

Hurricane Power (PDI)

Sea Surface Temperature (August-October)

Global Mean Temperature

Atlantic
 KATRINA
HURRICANE Katrina destroyed much of New Orleans,
causing more than $80 billion in damages, killing more than
1,800 people, and displacing in excess of 270,000.
More than 70,000 soldiers were mobilized, including 22,000
active duty troops and 50,000-plus members of the National
Guard (about 10 percent of the total Guard strength).
Katrina also had severe effects on critical infrastructure,
taking crude oil production and refinery capacity off-line for
an unprecedented length of time..
 Projected global average sea level (m.)
due to thermal expansion in 21° century relative to 1980-1999 under the climate scenarios

A NASA simulation that combined a modest forty-centimeter sea-level rise by 2050 with storm
surges found that, without new adaptive measures, large parts of New York City would be
inundated, including much of southern Brooklyn and Queens and portions of lower
Manhattan.
Tipping Points in the Earth System

John Schellnhuber,
Potsdam Institute,Oxford University,Tyndall Centre
 Teleconnections and Feedbacks

Tibetan
Albedo Change?

Bistability of Indian
Saharan Monsoon
Vegetation Transformation
ENSO
Bodele Dust Triggering
Bistability / Supply Change?
Reduced Collapse of
Performance Amazonian
of Marine Forest?
Carbon Pump

John Schellnhuber,
Potsdam Institute,Oxford University,Tyndall Centre .
 Teleconnections and Feedbacks
Instability of
Greenland Ice Sheet?
Atlantic Deep
Water Formation

Instability Tibetan
Albedo Change?
of Methane
Clathrates
Bistability of Indian
Saharan Monsoon
Vegetation Transformation
ENSO
Bodele Dust Triggering
Bistability / Supply Change?
Reduced Collapse of
Performance Amazonian
of Marine Forest?
Carbon Pump

Southern Ocean Upwelling /

Circumpolar Deep Water Formation
Instability of West Antarctic
Ice Sheet?

John Schellnhuber,
Potsdam Institute,Oxford University,Tyndall Centre
 Runaway Greenhouse Dynamics?
Instability of West Antarctic
Ice Sheet?
Instability of
Greenland Ice Sheet?
Atlantic Deep Tibetan
Water Formation
Albedo Change?

Tibetan
Albedo Change?
Reduced
Performance
Bistability of Indian
of Marine
Saharan
Anthropogenic Monsoon
Carbon Pump
Vegetation Transformation
Greenhouse
Southern Ocean Upwelling / Gas Instability of ENSO
Emissions
Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Bodele Dust Greenland Ice Sheet? Triggering
Bistability / Supply Change?
Reduced Collapse of
Performance Amazonian
of Marine Forest?
Carbon Pump
Atlantic Deep
Water Formation Bistability of
Saharan
Vegetation
Bodele Dust
Southern
SupplyOcean Upwelling /
Change?
Circumpolar Deep Water Formation
Instability of West Antarctic
Ice Sheet? ENSO
Triggering

John Schellnhuber,
Potsdam Institute,Oxford University,Tyndall Centre