Technology Roadmapping

Theory and Practice

Mike Ferrill
Principal Facilitator, A-Star SERC

20/12/10
 Today's Overall Objective
• Theory of Roadmapping
– Introduce the concept of roadmapping
– Discuss the theory of roadmapping – what does a
roadmap need to show?
– Explore different types of roadmap architectures
– Share some case study examples
• Practical Use of Roadmapping
– Operation and Technology Roadmapping (OTR)
• Beyond Roadmapping
– Issues with roadmapping
– Next generation approaches
 Why Roadmap?
• The objective of roadmapping is not to create a roadmap!
• A roadmap is a tool to help achieve an objective
– Identify our new products releases and technology investments for the next 5
years
– To identify and prioritise R&D investments for the next 10 years
– To identify where we can reduce cost over the next 3 years through process
implementation and technology
• To reach agreement on a set of needs and the technologies required to
deliver those needs
• To forecast technology development
• To plan and organise technology development within a clear
framework
 “The fundamental purpose of the Technology Reviews and
the Technology Roadmaps is to assure that we put in motion
today, what is necessary in order to have the right
technology, processes, components, and experience in place
to meet the future needs for products and services.”
- Bob Galvin
Former Chairman of the Board, Motorola

"Technology Roadmapping allows the company to view very

clearly and systematically an otherwise complex array of
technologies and emerging trends....This is crucial to help to
ensure the company's continual success, where critical and
insightful thinking about the future will help us ride through
the next wave of challenges facing the industries here."
-Ian Tan
Business Development Director, AEI
Singapore
TRM as an integrating mechanism

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programme RD 2 RD 6

Capital investment / finance

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 What is a Roadmap?

A technology roadmap is a plan that matches short-

term and long-term goals with specific technology
solutions to help meet those goals.[
Wikipedia

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 What is Technology ?
‘Technology means the processes by which an organization transforms
labor, capital, materials and information into products and service of
greater value.’
• The Innovator’s Dilemma, C.M.Christensen

are technologies which are embodied

COMPONENT within the product

are technologies which facilitate the

DESIGN design processes

are technologies which facilitate the

PRODUCTION production processes

are technologies which facilitate the

INFORMATION management or business processes
Cambridge University - TMAP
 Roadmaps Need to Show:
• A view of the future …
• That has at least 3 key concepts…
– Driving Forces
• Trends / Potential Events / Predictions
• Business, Technology, Legislative…
– A set of deliverables
• Products, Services, Features, Functionalities…
– A broad action plan to meet deliver them
• Technologies, Capabilities, Competences, Skills, Resources…
• And whatever else is required for the objective…

• An Organized Visual Display…

• Time based…
• Structured architecture…
 Different Roadmaps ?
“Science / Technology “Product - Technology
Roadmaps” Roadmaps”
Trajectories

- set industry targets - align decisions with trends

Trends/

International
Technology Roadmap
for Semiconductors

Right Company
Emphasis
Roadmap

Answers Future
Accuracy Influence
Industry Company
Landscape Position
Foresight Vehicle Technology
Positioning

Roadmapping
Strategic research requirements
for road vehicles in the UK

“Industry Roadmaps” “Product Roadmaps”

- set industry expectations - schedule product introductions

Industry Understanding Local Coordination

Kappel, T.A. Perspectives on Roadmaps:how organisiations talk about the
future. The Journal of Product Innovation Management 18 (2001)39-50
Company/Business Roadmaps
 Motorola Roadmap Matrix
- summary of product plans and technology forecast
Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated

Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors

Subcarrier function Stereo Paging Data Maps

IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS

Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence

Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre

Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth

RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION

PRODUCTS Plus: A NEW SERVICE

Stereo Plus: Plus:
Stock market
Scan Personal Road information Super Hi Fi
paging Remote
Seek amplifiers Local maps
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SIMTech Remote controls
12
Lucas roadmaps - a required input to the budget process

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
External influences
External
1 2 3 4
Influences 1.
2.
System 3.
Demonstrator 4.
.

Component / Market Trends

Sub-system
a)
b)
c)
Technology d)
Project Activity Description Market Trends Addressed
.
Principal Participants/Collaborators
.
Project Status External Funding Source

13
Time Window
 Technology Readiness Levels

9 Actual system proven through successful operations

Actual system completed and qualified through test and Proven in Service
8 demonstration in the actual environment / application

System prototype demonstration in the actual

7 environment/application

System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a

6 relevant environment

Code, Component and/or breadboard validation in relevant

5 environment
Engineering Feasibility

4 Code, Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory

environment

3 Analytical and experimental critical function and/or

characteristic proof-of-concept

2 Technology concept and/or application formulated

Technical Feasibility

1 Basic principles of the technology observed and reported

Ensure Technology
TechnologyMaturity
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Ensure Maturity Level
LevelisisAligned
Alignedwith
withCommercialization
Commercialization Requirement
Requirement
SIMTech Confidenial 14
E.g. Honeywell
New Product Opportunities Potential Product CTQs
made possible by Tech. Supported
by this Technology

Not in SBU Plan

In SBU Plan

, Available

No Issue with Funding

Technology or Readiness
Potential Issue with
Technology Funding or Readiness
Issue with Funding or
Technology Readiness

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What other Opportunities are possible once 15is achieved??
capability
What other Opportunities are possible once capability is achieved??
Industry Roadmaps
The documents
represent best opinion
on the directions of
research into many
areas of technology,
including time-lines up
to about 15 years into
the future

http://www.itrs.net/home.html
National Roadmaps
http://www.foresightvehicle.org.uk/
 Foresight Vehicle technology
roadmap: architecture
+5 years +10 years +15 years +20 years
Now Vision
Market / Time
Industry Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties
drivers
Performance
Evolution of required and desirable functional
measures and performance of road transport systems of the future
targets

Technical Required and desired technological response,

Group areas including research requirements
 Singapore Green Buildings Roadmap

• Unite multiple ministries/agencies around a single plan for green buildings research
in Singapore to contribute to carbon reduction targets, economic prosperity and
quality of life goals
• Created a roadmap for 20 years linking national external and internal drivers,
potential state initiatives and R&D expenditure
 Operation and Technology
Roadmapping (OTR)

A practical example of roadmapping

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 OTR
Operation
Operation & Technology
GET-Up Roadmapping
Roadmapping
To ensure that the technology
Growing Enterprises with
strategy is aligned with the
Technology Upgrade business strategy.

TA-S
Technical Advisory Support
To provide advise on their
T-Up technological related matters and
Technology challenges at a part-time basis.
Technology for
for Enterprise
Enterprise
Capability Upgrade
Secondment of Research
Scientists & Engineers

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 Principles
• Link industry to research institutes
– Promote long term thinking for industry on how to develop
and embrace new technology
• Link research institutes to industry
– Provide greater direction to the R&D groups for research
programs that will benefit the local industry

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 See the future!

What are the drivers of your

business?

Is your technology strategy

aligned to your business
20/12/10 strategy?
SIMTech Cofidential 25
 Companies need to answer
these questions ?
How do we identify technology which will have a future impact on our
business?
What are the disruptive technologies that will affect me?
How do we select and prioritise technology for business benefit?
How do we combine technologies to maximise impact?
How do we acquire and introduce new technology?
How do we protect & exploit our technology assets?

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 Technology
Roadmapping
- A practical guide for supporting
technology and product planning

Aims:
• To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes
• To establish key linkages between technology resources and business drivers
• To identify important gaps in market, product and technology intelligence
• To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology roadmap
• To support technology strategy and planning initiatives in the firm
• To support communication between technical and commercial functions
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 OTR History
2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2010
•Buy T-Plan •T-Plan Company •Many • 100+ OTR • 140+
•Trial on 3 x Training •45 Roadmaps Internal Exercises OTR
Companies •OTR •42 Companies roadmaps in • 80+ Exercises
Launched RIs Companies • 130+
RI Roadmaps •Update • 10+ Companies
•10 Initial Process Updates • Approx
•100 people development 15%
Trained multiple or
repeat
roadmaps

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 Some Uses of Roadmaps

“Whole’ company
technology development
plan

Specific product range Collaboration /

planning partnership alignment

New business /
Technology area Integration with R&D
investigation Institute

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 What
What is
is OTR
OTR ??

Can be customised to suit your

requirements…..

Module 1 Module 2 Module 3 Module 4 Module 5

Assessment Market Product / Service Technology Charting
• Identify current • Customer • Product feature • Technology • Linking
operation requirements / concepts / service solutions technology
performance wants offerings • Grouping resources to
• Identify current • Market / business • Grouping • Impact future market
level of technology drivers • Impact ranking ranking opportunities
•Understand current • Prioritisation • Product strategy
market position
 Roadmaps link resources to
objectives Layers connect:
Past Now Plans Future Vision Time (know-when)
Market / Customers / Competitors / ‘purpose’
Environment / Industry / (know-why)
Business / Trends / Drivers / Threats /
Objectives / Milestones / Strategy

ll
t Pu
Products / Services / Applications /

ke
ar
Services / Capabilities / Performance /
‘delivery’

M
Features / Components / Families /
Processes / Systems / Platforms / (know-what)
Opportunities / Requirements / Risks

h
us
Technology / Competences / yp
Knowledge
og

Skills / Partnerships / Suppliers / ‘resources’

ol
hn

Facilities / Infrastructure / Organisation / (know-how)

c

Standards / Science / Finance / R&D

Te

Projects

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 Example ‘first-cut’ roadmap

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 Market 12 hr Quote Measure Cycle Time and cost
Trading Pattern
Analysis ?% Reduction
4 hr Quote
(External)
Drivers

18 Months
12 Months
6 Months
Business Malaysia New Service/
(Internal) TPL Model ISO14000 China
In-situ
Repair Balancing

Sup Chain Guarantee

Global Spares Service
Support Cheap Spares

Product / Service
Specific Eng
Product Certification Reverse Eng/ New Enhance Eng
Services Resource
Repair Schemes

Offering
Outsource Repair
Extended Eng Services
Consortium Own Brand
Customised Spares
E-Bus/IT/ Knowledge Mgt web response ReducedE-bus Info/FAQ Website
Knowledge Mgt
of Part Lifecycle
Service Contract e-bus
Partnerships
Quote Time Partnership with other
repairers

Globalisation
Special Global Service

Diagnosis

Web-site Mgt Report Analysis Forum/FAQ Web-based Services Compatibility

IT Infrastructure with Partners
Decide on integrate of current system Job Report Company Secure Link Multi-currency

Service Contract Standard / discount Cust D’base Automatic Sales Visit Plan
Key Acct Mgt Automated Reminders Pricing Repair history D’base
Forecasts
KAM Pilot Introduction

Location of units Job Tracking (in situ/workshop)/ Remote Approval/Sign PDA Visibility
Command Technical D’base Satellite Web-access
visibility to customer
Centre
Autom Checklist

Inventory Mgt Supplier Stock Sister Company

Planning &
Scheduling
Technology Position
Order status/management
Stocks

Order Control

Faster Cleaning/ Portable Balancing/

Portable Service
(waterjet/ultrasonic) remote viewing

Base Sevices
Video of Balancing

Product Info (usage, educ)

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Dev & Test Eng Measurement
Eng/Tech Dev
Critical Eng specs Testing/Inspection
Strengthened
/ tolerances 33 of Parts
 Benefits of Roadmap Creation
Establish key linkages between
LINKAGES technology resources and business
drivers

Identifies important gaps in market,

GAPS product and technology intelligence

Supports communication between

COMMUNICATION
technical and commercial functions

Reduce ROI risk in technology

RISK acquisition / development

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 Roadmapping ‘ethos’
‘First-cut’ roadmap
• Participatory
• Quick “story”
• Exploratory
• Creative
‘canvas’
• Active
• Capture, structure and share knowledge
- know-why
- know-what Knowledge types:
- know-how • Explicit
- know-when • Tacit
• Implicit
- know-who
- know-where >>>> plans, forecasts, issues, links, challenges, questions, speculation
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 What commitment is required ?
• Dependent Upon Requirements…

• Standard Process (Product & Service Roadmap):

– Workshops : 5 X 0.5 day over a month period
– Participants (dependent upon roadmap scope):
• Senior management (company)
• Technology specialists (company / A-Star Institute)

• Roadmap owner
– To keep the roadmap alive !

• Cost 5k (IVS support available for eligible companies)

20/12/10
 Issues with roadmapping…
• Roadmapping Maturity?
– Roadmap updating
• Future Development ?
– What is a “good” roadmap ?
– How much detail ?
– Time vrs content ?
• How do we avoid getting stuck in a rut?

20/12/10
 Roadmap Maturity Curve

Source: Understanding the Roadmap Maturity Curve,

Alignent Software.

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Past Now Plans Future Vision

Actioned /

l
ul
Actioning

tP
ke
ar
M
h
us
yp

Theme:
og

Why Not ?
ol
hn

Not
c

•No
No resource
resource
Te

•Not convinced
Not convinced
Actioned •Drivers
Drivers changed
changed
•Valid
Valid decision
decision
•Postponed
Postponed

Theme:
Why Not on
‘Car Park’ Not on
Roadmap ?
roadmap •Drivers
Drivers changed
changed
Products & •New
New direction
direction
Drivers
Services
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“CLOSE ENCOUNTER” WITH
OTR
 Year: 2003
1st to introduce patented,
state-of-the-art, prefabricated
Internal Floating Roof
YEAR 2003
Technology Road Map on the Company

YEAR 2004
Operation and Technology Roadmap Internal
Floating Covers

YEAR 2007
OTR on internationalizing VAP-O-LOC range
of products
 A
LESSON
FROM
GEESE
AUTHOR UNKNOWN
CLICK TO ADVANCE SLIDES
 Case study: Singular ID
• Undertaken within research institute
– R&D project with commercial potential
– Spin-off process complex
– Company growth and strategy important – business plan
• Objectives
– Breakdown the spin-off process
– Establish milestones for the company’s business plan
– Clarify market need and products / services
– Use very limited resources efficiently
 Singular ID
Mobile phone, internet connection or
EPOS system transmits the data to a
remote database

Remote secure database

Singular ID tag reader

Tag attached to
item of value

60 m
Physical structure of a
Singular ID tag
 Start-ups
• Application to Start-ups
– Fresh canvas
– Develop simultaneously with
business plan
– Correlate with growth, product
development, marketing, etc
– Capture ‘spin-off’ transition to
operational company
– 2 – 3 years time span works well – 1
year very detailed
– Chart preparation, incorporation,
financing, growth, exit
 Roadmapping Future
Development

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 Beyond Roadmapping – How to
Avoid Getting Stuck in a Rut!

Siemens Pictures of the Future

“Painting detailed scenarios of tomorrow’s

world”

http://w1.siemens.com/innovation/en/publikat
ionen/publications_pof/index.htm
20/12/10
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Simple Example for Safety & Security - User Seg/Functions/Living
Spaces
Fu
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g me o n
Se C ons nce
s er 3 rd
par u illa la te
U Cit me v e h is o
t y r r /
ym sec Su unis tive
an uri P ap ity
Po a g em t y C n t
lice ent s Ide
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ren
Living Space

In t T
he s
off e nd
ice Tr
In t
he Fs
pris PO
on
On
the
str POF
eet s
In t Fs
he PO
ho
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PO
Fs

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 Review
• Theory:
– Understand what is technology roadmapping
• Practice:
– Understand operation and technology roadmapping
(OTR) and how it is applied
• Some ideas on the future of roadmapping and
“beyond roadmapping”

20/12/10
 Questions ?

For further information please contact

the following:

Mike Ferrill
Tel: 6826 6186
Email: [email protected]

20/12/10
 Useful references
Willyard and McClees (1987), ‘Motorola's Technology Roadmap process’, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19

EIRMA (1997) ‘Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision’, Working Group Report No 52

Groenveld (1997) ‘Roadmapping integrates business and technology’, Research-Technology Management Journal, Vol 40, No. 5, pp48-
55

Kostoff, R.N. (1997), ‘Science and Technology Roadmaps’, Defense Technical Information Center,
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/kostoff/index.html

Garcia & Bray (1997) ‘Fundamentals of technology roadmapping’, Sandia National Lab, http://www.sandia/gov SAND97-0665

Schaller(1999) master roadmap bibliography: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rschalle/master.html

Phaal, Farrukh & Probert (2000) ‘Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping’, IAMOT Conference, February 2000, Orlando, Florida.

Kappel (2001) ‘Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future’, The Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol
18, pp39-50

Holmes, C., Ferrill, M. & Phaal, R. (2004) Reasons for Roadmapping: A Study of the Singaporean SME Manufacturing Sector. IEEE
International Engineering Management Conference 2004. Pan Pacific Hotel, Singapore 2004. Pp 292-296

Holmes & Ferrill (2005) ‘The application of operation and technology roadmapping (OTR) to aid Singaporean SMEs identity and select
emerging technologies’ Technological Forecasting & Social Change Special issue: Managing Emerging Technologies in Asia. Vol 72/3 pp
349-357

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