Valuation Lecture I: WACC vs. APV and Capital Structure Decisions

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Valuation Lecture I: WACC vs.

APV and Capital Structure


Decisions
Financial Decisions
Timothy A. Thompson
Market value balance sheet

Market value assets Market value claims

Total enterprise value Market value claims


Notation

Asset or claim Required return, beta


C = excess cash rc, βc
A = value of projects ra, βa,reu,βeu
(unlevered)
D = mkt value debt rd,βd
E = mkt value equity reL,βeL
TS = debt tax shields rTS,βTS
Net debt = D’ = D – C
TEV = D – C + E
Balance sheet mathematics
 Logic:
 LHS and RHS of B/S must be equal
 Assume that TS refers to the present value of tax sheilds net
of costs of financial distress

V  C  A  TS  D  E

TEV  ( A  TS )  ( D  C )  E
E  ( A  TS )  C  D
Calculating the equity value of the
firm
 Equity method
 Present value of all future cash flows to equity
 Discounted at the required return on the levered equity
of the firm, reL, (based on levered equity beta, βeL)
 reL is greatly affected by differences in leverage
 Method buries future net debt payments into the equity
cash flow
 Valuation by components
 E = TEV + C – D
Valuation by components method
 Value the total enterprise value of the firm by
discounting all the operating asset cash flows
 Discounted at either
 WACC (using the WACC method)
 Or at
 The unlevered cost of equity reU (APV method)
 What is the difference between WACC and reU?
 TAX SHIELDS
 Equity = Total enterprise value + Excess Cash –
Market Value of Financing Obligations
Value of investment is the present value
of the investment’s cash flows (DCF)
 Cash flows are measured as free cash flows from
operations
 From operations means no financing-related cash
flows are included
 Free cash flows means after expected new investments
 When financial structure matters either
 Discount operating free cash flow at WACC
 WACC incorporates tax benefits of debt into the valuation by
reducing the discount rate relative to reU , WACC method
 Discount operating free cash flow at r eU (gives VU)
 Then add the present value of tax benefits of debt financing
explicitly (VL = VU + PVTS), APV method
What about costs of financial
distress?
 Theoretically, whatever costs of financial
distress (COFD) have not been subtracted off
in the operating cash flows should be
subtracted from either method (WACC or
APV)
 Often difficult to estimate COFD
 Good to develop intuition about what COFD are
 Understand what business likely to suffer from
large/small COFD
Capital Structure

 Tradeoff theory of the capital structure


 Value of the firm is a function of capital structure
(in particular, the debt/value ratio)
 As firm levers up (from zero leverage, holding
investments fixed) value increases due to PVTS
(and perhaps for other reasons)
 As firm levers up, the value decreases due to
COFD
 Want to find the happy medium!
Tradeoff Theory of the Capital Structure
Maximum value of firm

Costs of
Market Value of The Firm

financial distress

PV of interest
tax shields
Value of levered firm

Value of
unlevered
firm

Optimal amount
of debt
Debt
How do you calculate PVTS?

Simple model, Fin II


 For example in the 40% debt scenario
 Assume that the level of debt in the scenario is
perpetual debt
How do you calculate COFD?
 Difficult
 COFD is the present value of all future
expected costs associated with financial
distress
 If you did a method in Fin II, you can go ahead
and attempt it
 You would need inputs that are not in the case, and you
would have to look them up
 If you didn’t learn a method in Fin II
 You can try to figure out a good guess from Chapter
17/18 of BM
Structure of COFD

 COFD is a function of
 The probability of financial distress
 The cost of financial distress conditional on the
firm becoming financially
 COFD could be small even if distress is likely, if the firm
would not likely incur large costs in distress
 However, if we are pretty certain that the probability of
distress is very small, then the above “product” is likely
to be very small and PVTS is likely to exceed COFD
Bond Ratings

 Investment Grade Ratings


 AAA, AA, A, BBB (S&P)
 Junk Bond Ratings
 BB, B, CCC, etc.
 If proforma bond rating (based on a certain
capital structure) is high investment grade
 AAA or AA, maybe even high A
 Then probability of subsequent bankruptcy is very low
(see BM) – these would very likely be safe capital
structures

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