M-COAT Class
M-COAT Class
M-COAT Class
Description Data
6-Feb-20 13
M-COAT- Modules
• Patient Flow- Derived from TAA05 patient
flow (GREWMS).
• Workload - Uses FM 8-55 evacuation
planning factors.
• Class VIII consumption- Medical Resupply
Sets, FST supplies, and Blood.
• Hospital bed accumulation- Variable
evacuation delay times.
• Basis of Allocation rules (MRI and MF2K).
6-Feb-20 14
M-COAT- Accuracy
• Dupuy’s Estimates- 25 sets of data:
– 3 were within 50% of real casualties
– 6 were within 20% of real casualties
– 4 were within 10% of real casualties
– 12 were within 5% of real casualties
• M-COAT Estimates:
– Kuwait/Iraq estimate was off by -4%
– Panama estimate was off by -2%
– Mogadishu estimate was off by +2%
6-Feb-20 15
M-COAT- Accuracy (con’t)
• Dupuy Formula
– Mean Error -6.24%
– Standard Deviation of the Error 21.42%
– 95% Confidence Interval +/- 41.98%
• Modified Formula
– Mean Error -3.83%
– Standard Deviation of the Error 15.01%
– 95% Confidence Interval +/- 29.41%
• A 30% increase in accuracy
6-Feb-20 16
A Graphic Comparison
Estimate
6-Feb-20 17
Early User Testing
• III Corps “beta” tested during Warfighter
Exercise last month.
• Additional “beta” testing at:
– NTC- Medical Company O/C
– AG School- Officer Advanced Course
– Fort Campbell- 101st Airborne DMOC
– Arkansas- 39th Inf. Bde. (National Guard)
• Feedback thus far has been very positive.
6-Feb-20 18
Conclusion
• Requires Independent Validation and
Verification
• Potential COA tool for use in CSSCS
• Need Subject Matter Experts for V&V
• Four Pronged Fielding Approach
– Institutional Training
– CTC Training
– Sperandio Conference
– Distributed Training
• OTSG Offered Matching Funds for
Distributed Learning Course Development
6-Feb-20 19
Time Line
2 December 1998- Brief ACFI
9 December 1998- Brief FORSCOM Surgeon’s Office
TBD- Brief Combat Training Centers
5 January 1999- Brief CG, AMEDD Center and School
8 January 1999- Brief Commandant, AG School and CG,
Soldier Support Institute
13-14 January 1999- Brief Casualty Estimation and Steering -
Committee
February 1999- AMEDD Pre-command Course
Conduct Validation, Verification and Accreditation
25 April 1999- Sperandio Conference
22 June 1999- Military Operations Research Society
6-Feb-20 20