Print: past, present and future

Frank Romano
Professor Emeritus
RIT School of Print Media
[email protected]
The print market
Erosion of U.S. print volume continues
Competing business sectors
Inplants versus commercials
Technology upheaval
Geographic displacement
Power to the designer and print buyer
Competing business sectors
Converters
Newspapers Pre-
media
Services Package Printing Industrial
Specialty Printing
Commercial Printing Printers
Inplant Printing
Binders/
Mailers
Quick Printing
Copy Shops Sign Shops

Photographic -- photo labs, kiosks, portrait studios

A pyramid of firms
Decline in print establishments
60,000

Mostly consolidations
50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

1995=62,000 establishments
10,000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Series1 47,667 45,963 45,181 44,514 42,997 39,710 38,403
Decline in employees
1,250,000

1,200,000

1,150,000

1,100,000

1,050,000

1,000,000
Mostly automation
950,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2003 2005 2006
Employees 1,213,681 1,153,598 1,113,120 1,104,859 1,086,050 1,083,372 1,067,487
An increase in revenue?
$168,000.00

$166,000.00

$164,000.00
Mostly from digital print
and ancillary services
$162,000.00

$160,000.00

$158,000.00

$156,000.00

$154,000.00

$152,000.00

$150,000.00

$148,000.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Series1 $163,244.09 $159,372.90 $155,504.76 $156,729.21 $161,050.00 $165,476.4 $166,310.6
Digital print is growth engine
35

30

25

20

15

10

-5
Digital
Offset Digital Ancillary
Flexo Gravure (wide Average
Litho (page) services
format)
2000-2004 2.3 3.8 0 15.7 21.3 21.1 10.7
2004-2008 1.4 2.8 -2.9 19.7 31.5 34.2 14.5
Print is many things

Misc. Periodicals
Forms 6% 8% Newspapers
Stationery 4%
7%
6%
Books
6%

Catalo
g

Direct Mail
Advertisin 5%
g Directories
Documentation Financial/Legal 6%
Packaging
3% 5%
9%
Printing processes compete

Digital will
be half of
all printing
Digital color printing placements

50,000
45,000 40ppm and faster color printers, by year, ww
40,000 Digital color units, ww, 40+ppm
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Competing Print Technologies

Continuous Inkjet Flexo

Gravure

Piezo UV Inkjet Offset

Screen Litho
Commercial Printing Printing
Thermal DOD
Inkjet
Solvent
Piezo
Inkjet
Photo Thermal
Transfer

Toner

1--------------------------Low--------------------Run Length------------------High----------------------1,000s
Technology changes
30000

Digital Print
25000

Phototypesetting
20000

Laser Imaging
15000

10000

CTP
5000

DI
0
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Changes in reproduction

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30
Offset Litho
20
Letterpress
10
Digital (Inkjet)
0
1900 Digital (Toner)
1950
2000
2050
Follow the Printed Product
Ad and Promotional Internal/Forms
Flyers, brochures, booklets, Flat, carbonless, multi-part
inserts, circulars--collaterial forms, reports, handouts
material--signage, and point- Miscellaneous
of-purchase Wall and wrapping paper,
Books greeting cards, calendars,
Mass market, professional, posters
elhi, college, and university Newspapers
press Dailies, weeklies,
Catalogs Packaging/Labels
Business, consumer Flexible, folding cartons, labels,
Direct Mail corrugated
Post cards, self-mailers, Periodicals
booklets, letter mail Magazines, journals, newsletters
Directories Stationery
White, yellow pages, trade, Letterhead, envelopes, business
and organizational cards, note pads
Financial/Trans. TechDoc
Annual, quarterly reports Manuals, guides, instructions
The spectrum of print products
Books Promotional Office Communication
Soft cover Flyers Reports
Hard cover Brochures Presentations
Specialty Forms
Booklets
Other
Circulars
Periodical
Ad Inserts
Magazine Stationery
Journal Direct Mail Envelopes
Newsletter PostCard Business Cards
Reprint/Preprint Self Mailer Social Stationery
Reply cards Booklet
Envelope Mail
Packaging
Catalog Labels
Technical Documentation
Consumer Tags
Business Manuals
Folding Carton
Other Guides Flexible Packaging
Tech Bulletins Bags
Instructions Corrugated Cartons
Newspaper Test Packaging
Daily Legal-Financial
Weekly Annual/Quarterly Reports
Other Miscellaneous
Transactional Statements
Trans Promo Greetings Cards
Wrapping Paper
Legal Reports
Directories Wall Paper
White Pages IPOs Calendars
Yellow Pages Other Posters
Parts/Price Lists POP Displays
Other
Future of the printed product
20.00
18.00 Millions of tons of paper
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Advertising Books Catalog Direct Mail Directories Financial Forms Misc. Newspapers Packaging Periodicals Stationery Tech Doc
2000 4.60 1.70 1.98 2.26 2.38 2.90 3.45 2.20 9.80 17.90 2.40 1.90 2.60
2010 7.98 1.49 1.81 3.49 2.11 2.23 2.88 2.44 7.80 19.90 1.98 1.15 1.56
Most mail is print
But not all print is mail

Other
22%
Mail
46%

Newsstand
6%

Retail
26%
 Industrial printing
DISPLAY/SIGNAGE SECURITY IMAGERY
Signage LABELS Cards Art reproduction
Self-adhesive Smart IDs Photo printing
Point-of-Purchase (PoP)
Cut and stack Passports
Fleet graphics
Shrink/stretch Sleeve/Wrap OTHER
Posters
Banners/Billboards ELECTRONIC Currency
HOME/OFFICE Circuitry Stamps
Building/Vehicle Wraps Shower curtains PC boards Plastic cards
Awnings Venetian blinds RFID Flip flops
Nameplates Ceiling tiles LED/OLED displays Binders/notebooks
Floor coverings Bio-chemical sensors Lottery tickets
TEXTILE (proteomics) Pool liners
Apparel MANUFACTURING Membrane switches CDs/DVDs
Ties and scarves Components Microelectromechanical “Video” printing
Smart clothing Wires and cables systems (MEMS) Toys/Games
Wall coverings Detectors Lenticular imaging
Upholstered furniture 3D prototypes DOCUMENT Pens/pencils
Publications Buttons
FOOD/MEDICAL Books Balls
PACKAGING Drug delivery Advertising/promotional Smart Media/Audio Paper
Cans Food Transactional/transpromo
Bottles Cell printing Direct mail
Cartons Coupons
DECORATION/COATING Playing cards
Flexible packaging
Caskets Maps
Pouches
Ceramics Utility
Bags/Multiwall sacks Foil/metal
Corrugated Glass
Caps and lids Leather
Print volume

100

80

60

40

20

0
1900
1950
2000
2050

Volume based on paper tonnage

Print 2015
 A cross media world
 Highly automated
 Digital print revolution
 Integrated services
 Distributed printing
 Web centric
The creative professional
 1,200,000 graphic designers
 Of 18,000 graphic design majors in 152 four-
year programs conferring BA and BFA
degrees 3,500 are graduated annually
(NASAD)
 Count 2-year degrees and the number could
be as high as 40,000
No boundaries
The print purchaser can be remote.
The printing service can be remote.
The ultimate recipient can be remote.
Survivors
Innovative
Integrated
Internet-centric
Intelligence
Involvement