FX Risk Hedging
FX Risk Hedging
FX Risk Hedging
Transaction Exposure
Overview
The three major foreign exchange exposures
Foreign exchange transaction exposure
Pros and cons of hedging foreign exchange transaction
exposure
Alternatives of managing significant transaction
exposure
Practices and concerns of foreign exchange risk
management
Accounting exposure
Operating exposure
Transaction exposure
Impact of settling outstanding obligations entered into before change
in exchange rates but to be settled after change in exchange rates
Time
management of a firm
Currency risk management does not increase the expected cash
flows of a firm
Management often conducts hedging activities that benefit
management at the expense of shareholders
Managers cannot outguess the market
Managements motivation to reduce variability is sometimes
driven by accounting reasons
Efficient market theorists believe that investors can see through
the accounting veil and therefore have already factored the
foreign exchange effect into a firms market valuation
Unhedged
NCF
Hedging reduces the variability of expected cash flows about the mean of the distribution.
This reduction of distribution variance is a reduction of risk, but who benefits from it.
t1
t2
t3
Seller quotes a
price to buyer
Buyer places
firm order with
seller at
offered price
Seller ships
product and
bills buyer
t4
Buyer settles
A/R with cash
in amount of
currency
quoted at t1
Quotation Exposure
Backlog Exposure
Billing Exposure
Hedging Alternatives
Transaction exposure can be managed by
Contract Specifications:
Size of contract called the notional principal, trading
in each currency must be done in an even multiple
Method of stating exchange rates American terms
are used; quotes are in US dollar cost per unit of
foreign currency, also known as direct quotes
Contract Specifications
Using the settle price from the table and assuming a spot rate of
$0.09450/Ps at maturity, Amys profit is
If Amy believed that the Mexican peso would rise in value, she would
take a long position on the peso
Using the settle price from the table and assuming a spot rate of
$0.11500/Ps at maturity, Amys profit is
Forward Markets
Customized.
Customized.
Banks, brokers, MNCs. Public
speculation not encouraged
Futures Markets
Standardized.
Standardized.
Banks, brokers, MNC. Qualified
public speculators.
Clearing
operation
Marketplace
Regulation
Worldwide
Self-regulating.
Central exchange
Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) and National
Futures Association
Liquidation
Transaction
Costs
Assumptions
Remain unhedged
Hedge in the forward market
Hedge in the money market
Hedge in the futures market
Hedge in the options market
case in March
When this sale is booked, it is recorded at the spot rate.
In this case the A/R is recorded at a spot rate of $1.7640/, thus
$1,764,000 is recorded as a sale for Trident
If the firm wants to cover this exposure with a forward contract, then
the firm will sell 1,000,000 forward today at the $1.7540/
In 3 months, Trident will received 1,000,000 and exchange those
pounds at $1.7540/ receiving $1,754,000
This sum is $6,000 less than the uncertain $1,760,000 expected from
the unhedged position
This would be recorded in Tridents books as a foreign exchange loss
of $10,000 ($1,764,000 as booked, $1,754,000 as settled)
Remember that the loan proceeds may be used today, but the funds
Invested in
Rate
$1,720,976
Treasury bill
6% p.a. or 1.5%/quarter
$1,746,791
$1,720,976
Debt cost
8% p.a. or 2.0%/quarter
$1,755,396
$1,720,976
Cost of capital
$1,772,605
Uncovered yields
whatever the ending
spot rate is in 90 days
Forward rate
is $1.7540/
1.84
1.82
1.80
1.78
1.76
1.74
1.72
1.70
1.68
1.68
1.70
1.72
1.74
1.76
1.78
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.86
Proceeds if exercised
$1,750,000
$1,722,746
unlimited
$1.7813/
$1.7221/
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
B
Exposure
Put Exercise
Put Premium
Spot Rate
Unhedged
1.68
$1,680,000
1.69
$1,690,000
1.70
$1,700,000
1.71
$1,710,000
1.72
$1,720,000
1.73
$1,730,000
1.74
$1,740,000
1.75
$1,750,000
1.76
$1,760,000
1.77
$1,770,000
1.78
$1,780,000
1.79
$1,790,000
1.80
$1,800,000
1.81
$1,810,000
1.82
$1,820,000
1.83
$1,830,000
1.84
$1,840,000
1.85
$1,850,000
1.86
$1,860,000
1.87
$1,870,000
1.88
$1,880,000
1.89
$1,890,000
1.90
$1,900,000
C
1,000,000
1.75
0.0273
MM
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
$1,772,605
(FV)
Forward
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
$1,754,000
Put Option
$1,722,746
$1,722,746
$1,722,746
$1,722,746
$1,722,746
$1,722,746
$1,722,746
$1,722,746
$1,732,746
$1,742,746
$1,752,746
$1,762,746
$1,772,746
$1,782,746
$1,792,746
$1,802,746
$1,812,746
$1,822,746
$1,832,746
$1,842,746
$1,852,746
$1,862,746
$1,872,746
MM
Forward
Put Option
$1,920,000
$1,900,000
$1,880,000
$1,860,000
$1,840,000
Net Proceeds
$1,820,000
$1,800,000
$1,780,000
$1,760,000
$1,740,000
$1,720,000
$1,700,000
$1,680,000
$1,660,000
1.68 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.79 1.80 1.81 1.82 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.89 1.90
Exchange Rate ($/)
policies and
Viewpoint managers view on the expected direction
and distance of the exchange rate
Outcome/Payout
Remain uncovered
Unknown
$1,754,000
$1,755,396
$1,772,605
$1,722,746
Unlimited
= 980,392.16
90
$1,729,411.77 x 1 0.12 x
360
$1,781,294.12
$1,750,000
$27,254
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14
15
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17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
B
Exposure
Call Exercise
Call Premium
Spot Rate
Unhedged
1.68
$1,680,000
1.69
$1,690,000
1.70
$1,700,000
1.71
$1,710,000
1.72
$1,720,000
1.73
$1,730,000
1.74
$1,740,000
1.75
$1,750,000
1.76
$1,760,000
1.77
$1,770,000
1.78
$1,780,000
1.79
$1,790,000
1.80
$1,800,000
1.81
$1,810,000
1.82
$1,820,000
1.83
$1,830,000
1.84
$1,840,000
1.85
$1,850,000
1.86
$1,860,000
1.87
$1,870,000
1.88
$1,880,000
1.89
$1,890,000
1.90
$1,900,000
C
1,000,000
1.75
0.0273
MM
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
$1,781,294
(FV)
Forward Call Option
$1,754,000 $1,707,254
$1,754,000 $1,717,254
$1,754,000 $1,727,254
$1,754,000 $1,737,254
$1,754,000 $1,747,254
$1,754,000 $1,757,254
$1,754,000 $1,767,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
$1,754,000 $1,777,254
MM
Forward
Call Option
$1,920,000
$1,900,000
$1,880,000
$1,860,000
$1,840,000
Net Proceeds
$1,820,000
$1,800,000
$1,780,000
$1,760,000
$1,740,000
$1,720,000
$1,700,000
$1,680,000
$1,660,000
1.68 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.79 1.80 1.81 1.82 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.89 1.90
Exchange Rate ($/)
Which Goals?
Which Exposures?
Transaction exposures exist before they are actually booked yet some
firms do not hedge this backlog exposure
However, some firms are selectively hedging these backlog
exposures and anticipated exposures
along an option-line; those which use options and those that do not
Also the amount of risk covered may vary. Tare are proportional
hedging policies that state which proportion and type of exposure is
to be hedged by the treasury
Example