Chapter 7

Stock Valuation

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Objectives
Discuss the features of both common and preferred stock.

Describe the process of issuing common stock, including venture capital, going public and the investment banker.
Understand the concept of market efficiency and basic stock valuation using zero-growth, constant-growth, and variablegrowth models. Discuss the free cash flow valuation model and the book value, liquidation value, and price/earnings (P/E) multiple approaches.

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Common Stock: Ownership

The common stock of a firm can be privately owned by private investors, closely owned by an individual investor or a small group of investors, or publicly owned by a broad group of investors. The shares of privately owned firms, which are typically small corporations, are generally not traded; if the shares are traded, the transactions are among private investors and often require the firms consent. Large corporations are publicly owned, and their shares are generally actively traded in the broker or dealer markets .

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Common Stock: Dividends

The payment of dividends to the firms shareholders is at the discretion of the companys board of directors. Dividends may be paid in cash, stock, or merchandise. Common stockholders are not promised a dividend, but they come to expect certain payments on the basis of the historical dividend pattern of the firm. Before dividends are paid to common stockholders any past due dividends owed to preferred stockholders must be paid.

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Preferred Stock
Preferred stock is often considered quasi-debt because, much like interest on debt, it specifies a fixed periodic payment (dividend). Preferred stock is unlike debt in that it has no maturity date. Because they have a fixed claim on the firms income that takes precedence over the claim of common stockholders, preferred stockholders are exposed to less risk. Preferred stockholders are not normally given a voting right, although preferred stockholders are sometimes allowed to elect one member of the board of directors.

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Features of Preferred Stock

Restrictive covenants may include provisions about passing (not paying) dividends, the sale of senior securities, mergers, sales of assets, minimum liquidity requirements, and repurchases of common stock. Cumulative preferred stock is preferred stock for which all passed (unpaid) dividends in arrears, along with the current dividend, must be paid before dividends can be paid to common stockholders. Noncumulative preferred stock is preferred stock for which passed (unpaid) dividends do not accumulate. A callable feature is a feature of callable preferred stock that allows the issuer to retire the shares within a certain period time and at a specified price. A conversion feature is a feature of convertible preferred stock that allows holders to change each share into a stated number of shares of common stock.

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Going Public
When a firm wishes to sell its stock in the primary market, it has three alternatives.
1. A public offering, in which it offers its shares for sale to the general public. 2. A rights offering, in which new shares are sold to existing shareholders. 3. A private placement, in which the firm sells new securities directly to an investor or a group of investors.

Here we focus on the initial public offering (IPO), which is the first public sale of a firms stock.
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Going Public (cont.)

IPOs are typically made by small, fast-growing companies that either:
require additional capital to continue expanding, or have met a milestone for going public that was established in a contract to obtain VC funding.

The firm must obtain approval of current shareholders, and hire an investment bank to underwrite the offering. The investment banker is responsible for promoting the stock and facilitating the sale of the companys IPO shares.
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Going Public: The Investment Bankers Role

An investment banker is a financial intermediary that specializes in selling new security issues and advising firms with regard to major financial transactions. Underwriting is the role of the investment banker in bearing the risk of reselling, at a profit, the securities purchased from an issuing corporation at an agreed-on price. This process involves purchasing the security issue from the issuing corporation at an agreed-on price and bearing the risk of reselling it to the public at a profit. The investment banker also provides the issuer with advice about pricing and other important aspects of the issue.
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Going Public: The Investment Bankers Role (cont.)

An underwriting syndicate is a group of other bankers formed by an investment banker to share the financial risk associated with underwriting new securities. The syndicate shares the financial risk associated with buying the entire issue from the issuer and reselling the new securities to the public. The selling group is a large number of brokerage firms that join the originating investment banker(s); each accepts responsibility for selling a certain portion of a new security issue on a commission basis.
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The Selling Process for a Large Security Issue

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Common Stock Valuation

Common stockholders expect to be rewarded through periodic cash dividends and an increasing share value. Some of these investors decide which stocks to buy and sell based on a plan to maintain a broadly diversified portfolio. Other investors have a more speculative motive for trading.
They try to spot companies whose shares are undervaluedmeaning that the true value of the shares is greater than the current market price. These investors buy shares that they believe to be undervalued and sell shares that they think are overvalued (i.e., the market price is greater than the true value).

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Common Stock Valuation

The value of a share of common stock is equal to the present value of all future cash flows (dividends) that it is expected to provide.

where
P0 = value of common stock Dt = per-share dividend expected at the end of year t Rs = required return on common stock
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Common Stock Valuation: The Zero Growth Model

The zero dividend growth model assumes that the stock will pay the same dividend each year, year after year.

The equation shows that with zero growth, the value of a share of stock would equal the present value of a perpetuity of D1 dollars discounted at a rate rs.
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Example
Chuck Swimmer estimates that the dividend of Denham Company, an established textile producer, is expected to remain constant at $3 per share indefinitely.

If his required return on its stock is 15%, the stocks value is:
$20 ($3 0.15) per share

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Common Stock Valuation: Constant-Growth Model

The constant-growth model is a widely cited dividend valuation approach that assumes that dividends will grow at a constant rate, but a rate that is less than the required return.

The Gordon model is a common name for the constant-growth model that is widely cited in dividend valuation.

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Stock Valuation Example:

Lamar Company, a small cosmetics company, paid the following per share dividends:

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Stock Valuation Example (cont.)

Using a financial calculator or a spreadsheet, we find that the historical annual growth rate of Lamar Company dividends equals 7%. (PV = -$1.00, FV = $1.40, N = 5, Solve for I = ?)

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Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model

The zero- and constant-growth common stock models do not allow for any shift in expected growth rates. The variable-growth model is a dividend valuation approach that allows for a change in the dividend growth rate. To determine the value of a share of stock in the case of variable growth, we use a four-step procedure.

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Variable-Growth Example
The most recent annual (2012) dividend payment of Warren Industries, a rapidly growing boat manufacturer, was $1.50 per share. The firms financial manager expects that these dividends will increase at a 10% annual rate, g1, over the next three years. At the end of three years (the end of 2015), the firms mature product line is expected to result in a slowing of the dividend growth rate to 5% per year, g2, for the foreseeable future. The firms required return, rs, is 15%. Steps 1 and 2 are detailed on the following slide.

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Calculation of Present Value of Warren Industries Dividends (20132015)

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Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model (cont.)

Step 3. The value of the stock at the end of the initial growth period (N = 2015) can be found by first calculating DN+1 = D2016. D2016 = D2015 (1 + 0.05) = $2.00 (1.05) = $2.10

By using D2016 = $2.10, a 15% required return, and a 5% dividend growth rate, we can calculate the value of the stock at the end of 2015 as follows:
P2015 = D2016 / (rs g2) = $2.10 / (.15 .05) = $21.00
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Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model (cont.)

Step 3 (cont.) Finally, the share value of $21 at the end of 2015 must be converted into a present (end of 2012) value.
P2015 / (1 + rs)3 = $21 / (1 + 0.15)3 = $13.81 Step 4. Last, we add the PV of the initial dividend stream (found in Step 2) to the PV of the stock at the end of the initial growth period (found in Step 3), we get:

P2012 = $4.12 + $13.81 = $17.93 per share

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Common Stock Valuation: Free Cash Flow Valuation Model

A free cash flow valuation model determines the value of an entire company as the present value of its expected free cash flows discounted at the firms weighted average cost of capital, which is its expected average future cost of funds over the long run.

where VC = value of the entire company FCFt = free cash flow expected at the end of year t end of year t ra = the firms weighted average cost of capital
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Common Stock Valuation: Free Cash Flow Valuation Model (cont.) Because the value of the entire company, VC, is the market value of the entire enterprise (that is, of all assets), to find common stock value, VS, we must subtract the market value of all of the firms debt, VD, and the market value of preferred stock, VP, from VC. VS = VC VD VP

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Free Cash Flow Example

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Free Cash Flow Example (cont.) Step 1. Calculate the present value of the free cash flow occurring from the end of 2018 to infinity, measured at the beginning of 2018, so n periods = 5 in our calculations.

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Free Cash Flow Example (cont.)

Step 2. Add the present value of the FCF from 2018 to infinity, which is measured at the end of 2017, to the 2017 FCF value to get the total FCF in 2017. Total FCF2017 = $600,000 + $10,300,000 = $10,900,000 Step 3. Find the sum of the present values of the FCFs for 2013 through 2017 to determine the value of the entire company, VC. This step is detailed on the following slide.

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Free Cash Flow Example (cont.)

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Free Cash Flow Example (cont.) Step 4. Calculate the value of the common stock.
VS = $8,626,426 (VC) $3,100,000 (VD) $800,000 (VP) =
$4,726,426

The value of Dewhursts common stock is therefore estimated to be $4,726,426. By dividing this total by the 300,000 shares of common stock that the firm has outstanding, we get a common stock value of $15.76 per share ($4,726,426 300,000).
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Other Approaches to Stock Valuation

The price/earnings (P/E) ratio reflects the amount investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. The price/earnings multiple approach is a popular technique used to estimate the firms share value; calculated by multiplying the firms expected earnings per share (EPS) by the average price/earnings (P/E) ratio for the industry. Lamar Company is expected to earn $2.60 per share next year (2013). Assuming a industry average P/E ratio of 7, the firms per share value would be:

$2.60 7 = $18.20 per share

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Matter of Fact
Problems with P/E Valuation
The P/E multiple approach is a fast and easy way to estimate a stocks value.
However, P/E ratios vary widely over time. In 1980, the average S&P 500 stock had a P/E ratio below 9, but by the year 2000, the ratio had risen above 40. Therefore, analysts using the P/E approach in the 1980s would have come up with much lower estimates of share value than analysts using the model 20 years later. In other words, when using this approach to estimate stock values, the estimate will depend more on whether stock market valuations generally are high or low rather than on whether the particular company is doing well or not.
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Decision Making and Common Stock Value: Changes in Expected Dividends Assuming that economic conditions remain stable, any management action that would cause current and prospective stockholders to raise their dividend expectations should increase the firms value.

Therefore, any action of the financial manager that will increase the level of expected dividends without changing risk (the required return) should be undertaken, because it will positively affect owners wealth.

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Decision Making and Common Stock Value: Changes in Expected Dividends (cont.)

Assume that Lamar Company announced a major technological breakthrough that would revolutionize its industry. Current and prospective stockholders expect that although the dividend next year, D1, will remain at $1.50, the expected rate of growth thereafter will increase from 7% to 9% and the share price to rise from $18.75 to:

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Decision Making and Common Stock Value: Changes in Risk (cont.) Assume that Lamar Company managers makes a decision that, without changing expected dividends, causes the firms risk premium to increase to 7%. Assuming that the risk-free rate remains at 9%, the new required return on Lamar stock will be 16% (9% + 7%).

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Chapter Summary
The common stock of a firm can be privately owned, closely owned, or publicly owned. Preferred stockholders have preference over common stockholders with respect to the distribution of earnings and assets. The first public issue of a firms stock is called an initial public offering (IPO). The company selects an investment banker to advise it and to sell the securities. The IPO process includes getting SEC approval, promoting the offering to investors, and pricing the issue.

The value of a share of stock is the present value of all future dividends it is expected to provide over an infinite time horizon. Three dividend growth modelszero-growth, constant-growth, and variable-growthcan be considered in common stock valuation. The free cash flow valuation model finds the value of the entire company by discounting the firms expected free cash flow at its weighted average cost of capital. The price/earnings (P/E) multiple approach estimates stock value by multiplying the firms expected earnings per share (EPS) by the average price/earnings (P/E) ratio for the industry.
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