Ational Ision FOR Lectricity S Econd Ears: AN V E ' S 100 Y
Ational Ision FOR Lectricity S Econd Ears: AN V E ' S 100 Y
Ational Ision FOR Lectricity S Econd Ears: AN V E ' S 100 Y
“GRID 2030”
A NATIONAL VISION FOR
ELECTRICITY’S SECOND 100 YEARS
July 2003
. .
The challenges are great, but the opportunities are greater. Please join
with the U.S. Department of Energy and the Office of Electric
Transmission and Distribution in helping to create a more prosperous,
efficient, clean, and secure electricity future for all Americans.
Major Findings
America’s electric system, “the supreme engineering achievement of
the 20th century,” is aging, inefficient, and congested, and incapable
of meeting the future energy needs of the Information Economy
without operational changes and substantial capital investment over
the next several decades.
“Grid 2030” — A National Vision for Electricity’s Second 100 Years iii
Unprecedented levels of risk and uncertainty about future
conditions in the electric industry have raised concerns about the
ability of the system to meet future needs. Thousands of megawatts
of planned electric capacity additions have been cancelled. Capital
investment in new electric transmission and distribution facilities is
at an all-time low.
“The ‘technology There are several promising technologies on the horizon that could
readiness’ of critical help modernize and expand the Nation’s electric delivery system,
electric systems relieve transmission congestion, and address other problems in
needs to be system planning and operations. These include advanced
accelerated, conductors made from new composite materials and high
particularly for temperature superconducting materials, advanced electric storage
high-temperature systems such as flow batteries or flywheels, distributed intelligence
superconducting and smart controls, power electronics devices for AC-DC
cables and conversion and other purposes, and distributed energy resources
transformers, lower- including on-site generation and demand management.
cost electricity
The revolution in information technologies that has transformed
storage devices,
other “network” industries in America (e.g., telecommunications)
standardized
has yet to transform the electric power business. The proliferation of
architectures and
microprocessors has led to needs for greater levels of reliability and
techniques for
power quality. While the transformation process has begun,
distributed
technological limitations and market barriers hinder further
intelligence and development.
‘smart power’
systems...” It is becoming increasingly difficult to site new conventional
overhead transmission lines, particularly in urban and suburban
areas experiencing the greatest load growth. Resolving this siting
dilemma, by a) deploying power electronic solutions that allow
more power flow through existing transmission assets and b)
developing low impact grid solutions that are respectful of land use
concerns, is crucial to meeting the nation’s electricity needs.
Conclusions
The “technology readiness” of critical electric systems needs to be
accelerated, particularly for high-temperature superconducting
cables and transformers, lower-cost electricity storage devices,
A logical next step is the collaborative development of a National “A logical next step
Electric Delivery Technologies Roadmap. This technology Roadmap is the collaborative
will be principally used for guiding public and private research, development of a
development, and demonstration programs. National Electric
Delivery
• The Roadmap should build on prior similar efforts by the
Technologies
Electric Power Research Institute, National Rural Electric
Roadmap...the
Cooperative Association, North American Electric Reliability
Council, California Energy Commission, New York State
Roadmap should
Energy Research and Development Authority, and others.
complement similar
efforts ... and focus
• The Roadmap should complement technology roadmapping on electricity
efforts by the U.S. Department of Energy in nuclear, delivery...”
renewable, and clean coal power generation systems, energy
efficiency technologies, and hydrogen energy systems.
1. Introduction .......................................................................... 1
“Grid 2030” — A National Vision for Electricity’s Second 100 Years vii
viii “Grid 2030” — A National Vision for Electricity’s Second 100 Years
1 INTRODUCTION
Sixty-five senior executives from electric and gas utilities,
equipment manufacturers, information technology
companies, Federal and state government agencies, labor unions,
interest groups, universities, and National Laboratories participated in
the “National Electric System Vision Meeting” held in Washington,
D.C., on April 2 and 3, 2003. (A list of the
participants can be found in the
appendix.) This document reflects the
ideas and priorities put forth by the
meeting participants.
4.5
In 1940, 10% of energy consumption
4
in America was used to produce
3.5
electricity. In 1970, that fraction was Gross Domestic Product
Annual electric revenues – the Nation’s “electric bill” – are about $247
billion, paid by America’s 131 million electricity customers, which
includes nearly every business and household. The average price paid
is about 7 cents per kilowatt-hour, although prices vary from state to
state depending on local regulations, generation costs, and customer
mix.
Electric Generation
FORECAST OF FUTURE ELECTRIC GENERATION America operates a fleet of about
More than 350 GW of new capacity needed by 10,000 power plants. The average
2020
thermal efficiency is around 33%.
Efficiency has not changed much since
1960 because of slow turnover of the
Gigawatts
Electric Transmission 5
Even with adequate electric
4
Transmission Investment
(billion 1999-$/year)
-$117 million/year
generation, bottlenecks in the
transmission system interfere with the 3
reliable, efficient, and affordable
delivery of electric power. 2
1
America operates about 157,000
miles of high voltage (>230kV) 0
electric transmission lines. While 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
electricity demand increased by about Source: U.S. DOE National Transmission Grid
Study May 2002
25% since 1990, construction of
transmission facilities decreased
about 30%. In fact, annual investment in new transmission facilities has
declined over the last 25 years. The result is grid congestion, which can
mean higher electricity costs because customers cannot get access to
lower-cost electricity supplies, and because of higher line losses.
Transmission and distribution losses are related to how heavily the
system is loaded. U.S.-wide transmission and distribution losses were
about 5% in 1970, and grew to 9.5% in 2001, due to heavier
utilization and more frequent congestion. Congested transmission
paths, or “bottlenecks,” now affect many parts of the grid across the
country. In addition, it is estimated that power outages and power
quality disturbances cost the economy from $25 to $180 billion
annually. These costs could soar if outages or disturbances become
more frequent or longer in duration. There are also operational
problems in maintaining voltage levels.
Demand-Side Management
Customer activities, needs, wants, and desires, as well as the weather,
shape patterns of electricity use, which vary by the time of day and
season of the year. These patterns typically result in high concentrations
of electricity use in “peak periods.” The larger the peak period, the
greater the amount of electric resources that will be needed to meet it,
including distribution, transmission, and generation assets.
The national average load factor (the degree to which physical facilities
are being utilized) is about 55%. This means that electric system assets,
on average, are used about half the time. As a result, steps taken by
customers to reduce their consumption of electricity during peak
periods can measurably improve overall electric system efficiency and
economics.
Summary
North America’s world-class electric system is facing several serious
challenges. Major questions exist about its ability to continue providing
1
U.S. Department of Energy “Report to Congress: Impacts of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Proposal
for Standard Market Design” April 2003 DOE/S-0138
Market Drivers
Competition. The ability of incumbent companies to respond to
increasing competition from new entrants is a critical driver
determining the future of the electric system. Restructuring of wholesale
markets has already created new business opportunities in competitive
electric power generation. Restructuring has led many utilities to divest
If and when restructuring takes hold, and the array of choices available
to customers increases, providers of distributed energy and demand-
side management technologies could see the markets for their
products and services grow.
This vision of the future electric system builds on the existing electric
infrastructure. The same types of equipment that the system uses for
electric delivery today - e.g., power lines, substations, and transformers
- will continue to play important roles. However, the emergence of new
technologies, tools, and techniques including distributed intelligence “Grid 2030 is a
and distributed energy resources, will increase the efficiency, quality, fully automated
and security of existing systems and enable the development of a new power delivery
architecture for the electric grid. The result will be improvements in the network...ensuring
efficiency of both power delivery and market operations, and a high- a two-way flow of
quality network that provides secure sources of electricity to America. electricity and
information
Grid 2030 is a fully automated power delivery network that monitors between the
and controls every customer and node, ensuring a two-way flow of
power plants and
electricity and information between the power plant and the appliance,
appliances and all
and all points in between. Its distributed intelligence, coupled with
points in
broadband communications and automated control systems, enables
between.”
real-time market transactions and seamless interfaces among people,
buildings, industrial plants, generation facilities, and the electric
network.
Regional Interconnections
The national backbone is connected with two major North American
regional interconnections: East and West. Power from the backbone
system is distributed over regional networks. Long-distance
transmission within these regions is accomplished using upgraded,
controllable AC facilities and, in some cases, expanded DC links.
Customer "gateway" for the next Customer "total energy" systems Highly reliable, secure, digital-
generation "smart meter", enabling for power, heating, cooling, and grade power for any customer
two-way communications and a humidity control with "plug&play" who wants it
"transactive" customer-utility abilities, leasable through
interface mortgages Access to affordable pollution-
free, low-carbon electricity
Intelligent homes and appliances "Perfect" power quality through generation produced anywhere in
linked to the grid automatic corrections for voltage, the country
frequency, and power factor
Programs for customer participation issues Affordable energy storage devices
in power markets through demand- available to anyone
side management and distributed HTS generators, transformers,
generation and cables will make a significant Completion of a national (or
difference continental) superconducting
Advanced composite conductors backbone
Long distance superconducting
for greater transmission capacity
transmission cables
Regional plans for grid expansion
and modernization
Grand Challenges
A number of grand challenges need to be overcome to achieve this
vision of the future electric system. The industry has historically had a
monopoly structure that is slow to change with cultural attitudes
marked by built-in institutional inertia. Uncertainty about the future has
made it difficult for the industry to attract capital investment recently for
new construction.
Lack of
success in
some markets
U.S. Department of
Energy, Robert Card,
James Glotfelty, Kyle
McSlarrow
Waukesha Electric
Systems, Nancy
Dickman
MaryLee Blackwood
Jan Brinch
Tara Nielson