Pershing Square - 2012-02-06 - CP
Pershing Square - 2012-02-06 - CP
Pershing Square - 2012-02-06 - CP
February 6, 2012
Legal Notice
This solicitation is being made by Pershing Square, and by Pershing Square, L.P., Pershing Square II, L.P. and Pershing Square International, Ltd. (excluding Pershing Square, collectively, the "Pershing Square Funds"), and not by or on behalf of the management of CP. The address of CP is Suite 500, 401 - 9th Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta T2P 4Z4. Pershing Square has filed an information circular dated January 24, 2012 (the Pershing Square Circular) containing the information in respect of its proposed nominees. The Pershing Square Circular is available on CPs company profile on SEDAR at http://www.sedar.com and at www.cprising.ca. Proxies for CP shareholders meeting may be solicited by mail, telephone, facsimile, email or other electronic means as well as by newspaper or other media advertising and in person by managers, directors, officers and employees of Pershing Square who will not be specifically remunerated therefor. Pershing Square may also solicit proxies in reliance upon the public broadcast exemption to the solicitation requirements under applicable Canadian laws. Pershing Square may engage the services of one or more agents and authorize other persons to assist it in soliciting proxies on behalf of Pershing Square and the Pershing Square Funds. Pershing Square has entered into an agreement with Kingsdale Shareholder Services Inc. (Kingsdale) pursuant to which Kingsdale has agreed that it will act as Pershing Squares proxy agent should Pershing Square commence a formal solicitation of proxies. Pursuant to this agreement Kingsdale would receive a fee of $100,000, plus an additional fee of $6.00 for each telephone call to or from CP shareholders. In addition, Kingsdale may be entitled to a success fee on the successful completion of Pershing Squares solicitation, as determined by Pershing Square in consultation with Kingsdale. All costs incurred for the solicitation will be borne by the Pershing Square Funds. A registered holder of common shares of CP that gives a proxy may revoke it: (a) by completing and signing a valid proxy bearing a later date and returning it in accordance with the instructions contained in the form of proxy to be provided by Pershing Square, or as otherwise provided in the proxy circular, once made available to shareholders; (b) by depositing an instrument in writing executed by the shareholder or his or her authorized attorney: (i) at the registered office of CP at any time up to and including the last business day preceding the shareholders meeting, or (ii) with the chairman of the meeting prior to its commencement; or (c) in any other manner permitted by law. A non-registered holder of common shares of CP will be entitled to revoke a form of proxy or voting instruction form given to an intermediary at any time by written notice to the intermediary in accordance with the instructions given to the non-registered holder by its intermediary. Neither Pershing Square, the Pershing Square Funds, nor any of their managing members, directors or officers, or any associates or affiliates of the foregoing, nor any of Pershing Squares nominees for the Board of Directors of CP, or their respective associates or affiliates, has: (i) any material interest, direct or indirect, in any transaction since the beginning of CPs most recently completed financial year or in any proposed transaction that has materially affected or would materially affect CP or any of its subsidiaries; or (ii) any material interest, direct or indirect, by way of beneficial ownership of securities or otherwise, in any matter currently known to be acted on at the upcoming meeting of CP shareholders, other than the election of directors.
of our funds
We are seeking Board and management change to enhance the long-term performance and competitive position of the company Pershing Square has a track record of active, long-term value creation
$40
Pershing Files 13D
$35
$30
JCP announces hiring of new CEO Ron Johnson Pershing acquires $0.4bn of JCP Pershing acquires $1.0bn of JCP
$25
$20
Sep 2010
Nov 2010
Jan 2011
Mar 2011
May 2011
Jul 2011
Sep 2011
Nov 2011
Jan 2012
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(1)
J.C. Penney offered Board seats to Bill Ackman of Pershing Square and Steve Roth of Vornado Realty Trust; Pershing Square and Vornado acted in concert in acquiring this position.
If CP had no CEO, and it could hire any executive to run the company, whom would you choose?
Hunter Harrison CEO of the Year Railroader of the Year Railroad legend
Who is more likely to lead CP to its maximum potential (whatever that potential may be)?
Are you satisfied with CPs performance over the last 5 years of Fred Greens leadership?
Are you satisfied with the Boards stewardship of CP over the last ten years?
former Vice Chair of KPMG Canada, director of CIBC, Owens Illinois, Core-Mark, former director of Viterra
Restructuring / accounting background, relevant Board experience
10
(1)
(NYSE: JCP), Chairman of the Board of Howard Hughes (NYSE: HHC), director of Justice Holdings (LSE: JUSH)
Largest shareholder, shareholder value orientation, investment management expertise
Interim Chief Executive Officer of Worldtalk Communications Corporation, former director of Ceridian Corporation
Pershing Squares railroad industry expert, largest shareholder, shareholder value
11
- The entire, refreshed Board will make the CEO hiring decision
We are confident that with a shareholder mandate, the Board will make the right CEO decision
12
13
Source: Company filings. Bloomberg. Market Capitalization and Enterprise Value for CP shown as of September 22, 2011 (prior to Pershing Squares accumulation) and February 3, 2012 (current). (1) Enterprise Value includes 12/31/10 pension liability balances. Current pension deficits have likely grown materially for both CP and CN given changes in interest rates.
14
How Does One Choose Between the NMC or the Current Board?
Compare the track record, background and experience of Fred Green and the current Board
with the track record of Hunter Harrison and the potential contribution of the NMC
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175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
50 May 2006
50 Nov 2006 May 2007 Nov 2007 May 2008 CP Nov 2008 May 2009 Nov 2009 May 2010 Nov 2010 May 2011 Average of Competitors
NSC 22%
17
CNR 37%
CSX 65%
KSU 77%
UNP 93%
-18%
Source: Bloomberg. All data from May 5, 2006 (date upon which Fred Green became CPs CEO) through September 22, 2011 (prior to Pershing Squares accumulation). Total return assumes dividends reinvested. Does not normalize exchange rate movements; impact is negligible.
90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
#3
#3
#3
#6
#5
#6
#6
18
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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12.00
CPs longer hauls naturally command lower prices, but service quality has been a factor
8.00
4.00
Grain and Sulphur & Fertilizers Coal Forest Products Industrial & Consumer Products Automotive Intermodal Total
-7% 41%
-15% 16%
-12% 4%
20
-10% 19%
-15% 2%
+17% 19%
-9%
4.00
CP UNP
3.50
3.00 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
21
Source: Company filings. Excludes Kansas City Southern due to the short-haul nature of its traffic mix.
CP
CN CN CP (2008PF-11) 3 Year
22
CP (Intermodal)
CN (Intermodal)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2005 2006
39.8%
2007
41.3%
2008
42.4% 40.9% 23
2009
40.4% 38.6%
2010
41.4% 39.8%
2011
40.7% 39.2%
41.1%
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Source: Company filings. (1) Excludes DM&E RTMs as of 2008. DM&E RTMs, largely concentrated in grain and industrial products / energy, have likely grown; this may understate CPs share loss excluding DM&E.
CPs longer hauls and bulk / unit train mix should give CP a LOWER unit cost profile than CN
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24
CP CN CP CN
3 Year (2008PF-11)
Many stakeholders commented that CN was generally more aggressive than CP in pursuing financial objectives, including cost cutting and other efficiency measures Rail Freight Service Review, January 2011
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25
3.50
CSX CP
3.00
CNR
2.50
UNP
2.00 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
CPs longer hauls and bulk / unit train mix should give CP a much lower unit cost profile than current levels
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26
Source: Company filings. Excludes Kansas City Southern due to the short-haul nature of its traffic mix.
2010 CP / CN 71% 80% 71% of the volumes But, 80% of the freight cars 93% of the locomotives
Locomotives
81%
93%
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Poor Asset Utilization: Locomotive utilization 23% lower than CNs as of 2010
[CP] doesn't need more locomotives. [CP] already has one of the best fleets that I've ever seen in my travels whether as a consultant or a prior executive. - Ed Harris, June 2010
CPs MYP includes: - 91 new locomotives in 2011 / Q1 2012 - $500mm of capex for new and remanufactured locomotives from 2011-14
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30%
20%
10%
0% 2000
Margin Deficit -7.5%
2001
-9.1%
2002
-7.6%
2003
-10.3%
2004
-13.0%
CP
2005
-12.9%
2006
-14.6%
2007
-12.0%
CN
2008
-13.5%
2009
-15.0%
2010
-14.0%
2011
-17.8%
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9%
6%
3%
2004
2005
2006
CN
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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30
Source: Bloomberg.
30%
20%
10%
2003
2004
CN
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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Cash Flow
-$0.2bn
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32
Underinvesting during recession when steel prices, crew costs, and opportunity costs of closing track are lowest
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
33
Irresponsible financing
-
Diverted capital and management focus away from core franchise and necessary operational improvements Reputedly a poison pill to fend off financial and strategic acquirers OR at time of acquisition was ~70%; should have been margin accretive
34
Shareholder Dilution
Buyout inquiry
$75
$50
$25
$0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total repurchases of $517mm for 8.2mm shares at $63.03 Total issuances of $511mm or 12.6mm shares at $36.75 While CP issued shares during the recession, responsible capital management allowed other rails to opportunistically repurchase shares at depressed prices
35
Underlying Drivers
200
32%
150
100
CN CP
50
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38
23%
30
20
CP
10 0
CN
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39
23%
160
120
80
CP
CN
40
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40
Shorter Trains
23%
80
60
40
CP
CN
20
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41
12%
1.00
0.75
0.50
CP
CN
0.25
0.00
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42
19%
25 20 15 10 5 0
CP
CN
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43
20
29%
15
10
CP
CN
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44
0.15
80%
0.1
CP CN
0.05
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45
200
19%
150
100
CP
CN
50
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Source: 2010 company filings. For comparability, based on Average Number of Active Employees Total for CP and Employees (Average for the Period) for CN.
46
3.0
2.9
2.5
0.0
Bulk / Grain CP
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Carload / Merchandise CN
47
Intermodal
Source: Analysis of Railway Fulfillment of Shipper Demand and Transit Times, QGI Consulting, March 2010.
19%
10%
0%
Bulk / Grain
Carload / Merchandise CP CN
Intermodal
________________________________________________
Source: Analysis of Railway Fulfillment of Shipper Demand and Transit Times, QGI Consulting, March 2010. 48 (1) See pages 16 and 17 of the QGI report for an explanation of the measurement framework. For example, if transit time was 100 hours and the standard deviation was 20 hours, the coefficient of variation would be 20 percent. A lower coefficient of variation reflects a more consistent transit time.
75%
73%
% Order Fulfillment
50%
25%
0%
Bulk / Grain CP
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Merchandise CN
49
Source: Analysis of Railway Fulfillment of Shipper Demand and Transit Times, QGI Consulting, March 2010.
50
52
June 2011 Detailed Plan Driven by various productivity and efficiency initiatives Assumed 2-3% volume growth Three big initiatives of asset velocity, structural costs and the long train principles; I would say those are the three great building blocks that capture some pretty substantial course of what we're doing.
Current Detailed Plan New forecast; now driven by materially above-consensus volume expectations Assumes ~5% volume growth Volume growth drives ~3/4 of expected net OR improvement Revenue growth is integral to achieving lower OR and is dependent on maintaining strong personal relationships with customers.
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54
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1999
78%
2000
77%
2001
78%
2002
77%
2003
80%
2004
80%
2005
78%
2006
76%
2007
76%
2008
79%
2009
82%
2010
78%
2011
81%
Integrated Operating Plan (IOP), Scheduled Railroad (May 1999 - Current) Numerous IT Initiatives (MultiRail, Service Excellence Suite, TYES, TRIEX, SAP, Shipment Suite, Engineering Excellence, TrAM, Others) Western Capacity Exp. (04-05+) Execution Excellence (EE) (05-07) Execution Excellence for Efficiency (E3) (08-10) Long Train Strategy (Pre-2008+) Grouped IOP and Yield teams into Strategy & Yield (2008+) Railway of the Future (08-09) Restructured commercial org. Marketing, Sales, Customer Services (09+) Driving the Digital Railway (2010+) Organizational reorg., fewer layers / oper. regions (10+) Many former initiatives rebranded as MYP
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Reducing structural costs: offices, loco / freight repair (10+) First Mile Last Mile (2010+) Multi-Year Plan (MYP) (2011+)
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57
November 2005
I expect our team to gain traction on expense reduction and drive step-change productivity improvements across the property I believe this franchise has more to deliver. Im not satisfied with our operating ratio [2006 target was ~75% OR], and Im raising the bar on Execution Excellence as a vehicle to drive accelerated improvements. - Fred Green, Analyst Day
58
November 2006*
It all brings me back to my key message; through Execution Excellence we are transforming this railway into a highly efficient business. The more we do, the more we learn, and the more potential we are seeing. - Fred Green, Analyst Day
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November 2006
I told you we had a value creation strategy that works. It's delivering results, and we expect our success to continue.
- Fred Green, Analyst Day
60
April 2007
Our focus on network fluidity and Execution Excellence have transformed CP into a more resilient railway, better able to manage through and recover from uncontrollable events. - Fred Green, Q1 2007 Earnings Call
61
November 2008*
We have a series of Vice Presidents who have sat right in front of Kathryn and I and stared us in the eyeballs and told us how they're going to deliver the types of improvements that Brock referred to. And because of that level of attack, level of effort, and that level of commitment, we're able to sit here today and say that we've got a program [Execution Excellence for Efficiency or E3] that over the next couple of years, is another C$100 million.
- Fred Green, Analyst Day
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October 2009
Our long-train strategy continues to support our cost management efforts and our success is being reflected in key metrics. - Fred Green, Q3 2009 Earnings Call
63
October 2009
We said wed do $100 million in variable costs, and we are clearly going to do that. We also said we were going to attack the structural costs. We didn't know exactly how big it was, but that we thought it was probably at least as big as the variable cost component, but it would take a couple of years to deliver thatdirectionally, everything is consistent with our expectations in that regard. - Fred Green, Q3 2009 Earnings Call
64
January 2010*
Looking at 2010, you can expect more of the same from CP, emphasis on cost management, productivity and the realization of longer-term structural savings. - Fred Green, Q4 2009 Earnings Call
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June 2010
I would anticipate that we are going to find one or two a year [required sidings to lengthen], where the next bottleneck arises and that's just normal stufffor the most part, the good news is we've done a lot of the stuff in the expensive mountain siding expansions.
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The Results?
67
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68
(1)
Represents total return to shareholders, assuming dividends reinvested. Returns from May 5, 2006 (date upon which Fred Green became CPs CEO) through September 22, 2011 (prior to Pershing Squares accumulation).
69
71
The Board Chose the Wrong CEO and Will Not Consider Alternatives
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Fred Green's Performance Worst operating performance in the industry EBIT has declined ~10% excluding DM&E Negative cash flow
Fred Greens Targets Yet, Fred Green deemed to have met 17 of 18 individual performance objectives set by the Board Only one missed objective: financial targets in 2008
74
Fred Greens "Value" to Shareholders Negative 18% total return to shareholders, including dividends, over tenure(1) $1.8bn of shareholder value destroyed(1)
Fred Greens Compensation Fred Green has been paid $27mm from 2006 2010
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75
(1)
Returns from May 5, 2006 (date upon which Fred Green became CPs CEO) through September 22, 2011 (prior to Pershing Squares accumulation). Total return to shareholders includes dividends, assumed to be reinvested.
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77
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Performance
- Questionable hires / roles - Five COOs in 5 years, Three CFOs in 5 years
Maximize Operating Performance - Worst OR in industry; far worse than closest competitor - Poor asset utilization, ROIC, cash flow - Lower reliability, losing market share Drive Strategic Direction Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet Management - Underinvestment vs. peers - Disastrous DM&E acquisition - Weakened balance sheet, including pension mismanagement - Inopportune equity repurchases / issuances
The stock price reflects value destruction over the past ~5.5 years
79
Shareholder representation
Restructuring expertise Entrepreneurial culture Culture of equity ownership and shareholder value creation
80
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Hunter Harrison
Led operational and cultural transformations at two underperforming railroads, including one in Canada. Drove unprecedented performance, far ahead of peers
84
Hunter Harrison
Hunter's experience gives him a unique and massive head start in the transformation of Canadian Pacific
85
75%
70%
29% reduction in locomotives and 10% reduction in rolling stock, despite growing volumes Bought by CN: 450% return to equity holders
86
65%
60%
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
75%
integrating and transforming these rails, leading to flattish ORs in high 60%s in the early 2000s
- Not capital intensive capex = 17% of rev.
65%
60%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Hunter Harrison
Hunter is an Experienced
Culture Change Agent
88
89
Intrinsic Value at Year 3 (12/31/2014) assuming 14x NTM Earnings Revenue Growth, p.a. (2012 - 2015) 4% 6% 8% 69% $111.25 $121.48 $132.30 Year 4 (2015) 67% $119.90 $130.79 $142.30 Operating 65% $128.63 $140.18 $152.38 Ratio % 63% $137.44 $149.64 $162.55 61% $146.32 $159.19 $172.80
90
91
80%
75%
70%
65%
60% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Is it possible that CP has always been efficient while CN (and every other U.S. Class I rail) improved margins massively?
93
Earlier in his tenure, Fred Green privately told numerous investors that CPs structural disadvantage vs. CN was benchmarked at ~200-300 bps
94
95
Over the long-term, the operating ratio is a function of structural business factors, not profit levels at any given time Top down analysis: CN going to low 60%s and U.S. Class I Rails to ~65% - What are CPs structural advantages and disadvantages vs. peers? 2 for 2 success rate: Hunter has transformed both IC and CN to mid / low 60%s ORs
96
Apply the many successful practices, learn and adapt from mistakes
Pace of similar OR improvement at IC and CN was slowed by a declining price environment (IC) and integration of lower margin acquisitions (CN) Decade-plus of experience with CP, Canada, and competitive landscape
-
Operating plan is proven and successful, similar best operating practices are already in place and producing results for CPs competitor
-
Adoption of concepts by employees / unions, customers, regulators, and other stakeholders will be more rapid given proven success of concepts
Wealth of experience and massive head start enable four year improvement
97
Led transformation of IC into best performing railway in North America, nearly ~2,000 bps ahead of industry at the time EBIT increased 2.8x, OR improved from 80% in 1989 to industry-best 63% in 1997
Led transformation of CN into best performing railway in North America EBIT increased 2.6x, OR improved from 78% in 1997 to industry-best 67% in 2009 (OR as low as 62% in 2006) Total returns to shareholders of 350%
99
Council (2006)
- CEO of the Year, Globe and Mail (2007) - International Executive of the Year, Canadian Chamber of Commerce
(2009)
- Railroad Innovator Award, Progressive Railroading (2009)
100
interswitching)
Track record of building a strong team & succession planning, as evidenced by continued strong performance after he left CN Non-promotional: met or beat targets consistently at IC / CN
Best Executive + Familiarity = Massive Improvements to Worst Performer
101
With an operating ratio of 62.3% during 1997, Illinois Central is one of the most efficiently operating railroads in North America. As a result, a portion of the anticipated synergies from the Acquisition will be derived from the application of Illinois Centrals best practices. - CN / IC Merger Debt Securities Prospectus (May 1998)
Canadian National achieved a 69.6% operating ratio in 2000, utilizing Precision Scheduled Railroading, on the way to the low 60s by the mid-2000s
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(1) (2)
How We Work and Why (Running A Precision Railroad) and Change, Leadership, Mud and Why (How We Work and Why Volume II), by E. Hunter Harrison Switch Points: Culture Change on the Fast Track to Business Success, by Judy Johnson, Les Dakens, Peter Edwards, Ned Morse
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