Introduction_to_Prophet
Introduction_to_Prophet
Introduction_to_Prophet
Release 2022 Q2
© 2022 FIS
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Contents
Part 2 - Appendices 79
A - Further topics 80
Regenerating products 81
Re-scanning products using Auto-Scan 81
FIS' Prophet solution is a leading enterprise-wide actuarial modelling system that helps insurance and financial services
companies meet reporting responsibilities, improve risk management, and develop more profitable products faster.
Prophet uses customisable actuarial libraries for all major product types, including regional variations. It provides the
transparency, performance and control required by today's actuaries and risk managers through integrated financial
modelling and data management capabilities. Prophet is used by more than 10,000 users at nearly 1000 customer sites in
over 70 countries.
Prophet Professional is the desktop platform. It is an integrated suite of actuarial systems used primarily by insurance
companies to perform actuarial calculations including:
n Profit testing
n Projections
n Statutory valuations
n Risk management
In this tutorial you will gain an overall view of the main features of FIS Prophet, set up and run calculations for a single
traditional insurance product using a library containing variables used for the calculations, view the generated results and
use Diagram View to analyse and update the product.
The tutorial also shows you how to monitor the effects of changes made to a product and how new calculation variables can
be added to a library.
Further help can be found in the Prophet Professional User Guide, and you can also access the Help file by pressing F1
while you are using Prophet.
If you would like information about our Prophet training courses, see www.prophet-web.com/support/training/.
Further topics
In this lesson you will learn about a number of further features of Prophet, such as Regenerate and Auto-Scan. For details
see Further topics.
You can compare your products and tables with these to check your work and to help you diagnose any problems that may
arise during the tutorial. For details see Conventional product input files and International product input files.
Prerequisites
Before you tackle this tutorial, you are expected to have a working knowledge of using Windows applications, and Release
2020 Q2 service pack 3 or later of Prophet Professional installed on your computer.
Before you start this tutorial, you may want to read the chapters on Concepts and Terminology and Setting up a product in
the Prophet User Guide. This will give you a background to some of the screens, menus and options that are available.
In this tutorial you will be creating and managing traditional insurance products using either the Conventional or
International library supplied with Prophet.
n The Conventional library is focused on the product features common in the UK and is also applicable in other markets
such as Australia and South Africa.
n The International library is focused on the features common in continental European markets, except for the German,
French and North American markets for which specific libraries are available.
Note: This tutorial does not support the German, French or North American libraries.
Scenario
As you work through this tutorial you will learn how to use the features of Prophet Professional by creating a Prophet
workspace that includes a simple product.
The product that is modelled in this tutorial is a simple one so that it can be set up using either the Conventional or the
International library. The following table gives the product details.
Welcome to the Prophet Professional tutorial Scenario 4
Benefits The product is a non-profit endowment, so there is a guaranteed sum assured payable on death
or maturity.
A surrender value of half the premiums paid, accrued with 5% interest p.a., is payable in the first
two years. After that, the surrender value is equal to the net premium reserve using 100% of the
mortality table AM92 Ultimate for the Conventional product and GKM80 for the International
product and an interest rate of 5%.
Premiums Premiums may be paid annually, half yearly, quarterly or monthly.
Expenses Initial expenses are currently 160 per policy. Renewal expenses are currently 24 per policy per
annum and are expected to grow in accordance with the Consumer Price Index (assumed to be
4% per annum).
Commission The office pays an initial commission as a percentage of the first year's premiums, according to
the following table. This is paid in full on inception with “clawback” if the policy lapses before 2
years' premiums have been paid in the case of the Conventional product and 1 year in the case
of the International product. Commission rates for intermediate numbers of years are obtained
by interpolation. Renewal commission of 3% of premiums is paid after the first year.
Policy Term in Years Initial Commission %
0-5 10
10 25
15 35
20 - 30 40
Taxation For the Conventional product you will assume that the office is a mutual. Hence, taxation will be
on an "investment income minus expenses" basis with tax rates assumed to be 20% on franked
investment income and 25% on other income less expenses.
For the International product profits are taxed at 33%.
Reserving The net premium method is used for reserving purposes, using 100% of the mortality table
AM92 Ultimate for the Conventional product and GKM80 for the International product, and an
interest rate of 3%. A Zillmer adjustment is not used.
The product will include a solvency margin. You will use the European solvency margin
requirements, namely 4% of the reserves and 0.3% of the sum at risk.
Mortality Experience The current mortality experience is 85% of the mortality table AM92. You will confirm this for the
Conventional product and 85% of the mortality table GKM80 for the International product. This is
expected to continue.
Lapses At present, lapse rates are as set out in the following table and this experience is expected to
continue.
Years in Force Lapse Rate (%)
≤1 10
≤3 7.5
thereafter 3
Future Investment The company expects to earn 7% gross on equities (made up of 3% income and 4% growth) and
Earnings 5% gross on fixed interest government stocks (all made up of income). The product is backed
75% by equity type investments and 25% by fixed interest type investments. 15% of the equity
type investments are assumed to be realised each year, with reinvestment into similar
investments.
Discount Rates Future profits will be discounted at three different rates of 6%, 8% and 10% to put a value on the
business.
Projection Data The product will be run using policy data as at 31 December 2021.
Welcome to the Prophet Professional tutorial Scenario 5
n Global File. This file contains information which is the same for every product in the run, for example the consumer
price index inflation rate.
n Parameter File(s). These files are used for the product specific information, which is the same for all the policies of a
particular product, for example the annual renewal expense per policy for each product.
Note: The tutorial is primarily concerned with showing you how to use Prophet. It does not address actuarial issues
such as the appropriateness of the calculations for any specific company or country.
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product 6
Learning objectives 7
Additional information 26
Lesson summary 28
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Learning objectives 7
Learning objectives
The first lesson in this tutorial shows you how to use the main features of Prophet Professional to create a new workspace,
create a product and set it up.
Note: While working through the tutorial, if you are using the International library, replace "C_ENDT" with "I_ENDT" and
replace "Conventional" with "International" when entering a product or selecting a library.
Note: At any time you can look at the Prophet Professional User Guide or Help file for more information on the Prophet
interface. To do this, click the File tab and on the backstage view click Help.
To view the online help, click Help Topics, or to view the user guide as a PDF file, click User Manuals and then
double-click the PDF for the Prophet Professional User Guide.
It is advisable to complete each lesson in one session. However, if this is not convenient you can pause at the end of an
objective, close Prophet and come back to the tutorial later.
Note: If you close Prophet before you finish defining input variables, Prophet saves the default definitions. You can
change these definitions as required as you work through the tutorial.
To start Prophet:
1. If you are running Windows 7: From the Windows Start menu point to All Programs > Prophet Suite > Prophet
Professional and click Prophet Professional.
OR
If you are using Windows 8 or Windows 10: Press the Windows key on your keyboard and from the Start screen,
locate and click the Prophet Professional icon.
2. The main work area displays the Prophet website, which gives you the latest information and support tips. As with any
other tab, you can close the Start page.
Tip: To reopen the Start page, click the File tab and on the backstage view click Help, then click Start Page.
If you have permissions enabled you need to enter your username and password as specified by your administrator.
4. In the New Workspace Location box, type C:\Prophet_Tutorial, and in the Description box type a meaningful
description of the workspace. In this case type Introduction to Prophet Tutorial Workspace.
5. Select the Install Template check box and if necessary select the Example Model Office template from the list, then
select the Install Libraries Only check box.
This is because the tutorial does not need the full example template as you will be creating the various elements as you
work through it, but you do need the standard libraries (Conventional and International) that are supplied with the
Example Model Office.
Tip: When you have completed this tutorial you can work through the Example Model Office tutorial to learn about
further aspects of Prophet Professional.
6. Click OK to create the new workspace. The application screen looks similar to the following:
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Creating the product 9
A product is associated with a library of actuarial formulas from which it is defined. For example, a conventional product is a
product defined using the Conventional library. Similarly, a summary product is a product set up using the Summary library.
In this tutorial you will use the Conventional or International library.
2. On the Home tab click the arrow below New and then click New Product.
Tip: If you want to look at the properties for an existing product, in the Explorer pane in the Products folder click
the product, and on the Home tab in the Edit group click Properties.
4. Click OK. The Select Indicators for Product dialog box appears. The next objective takes you through selecting
indicators for the product.
1. When you have completed the Product Properties dialog box and clicked OK, the Select Indicators for Product
dialog box appears.
Note: If you are returning to the tutorial after a break, on the Start page open the Tutorial workspace, then in the
Explorer pane in the Model Components group, double-click the product to open it in the work area. On the
Object tab of the ribbon, in the Product group click Show Indicators.
This screenshot shows the dialog box for the Conventional product, but the International product is similar.
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Selecting the indicators 11
n The pane on the left lists the indicator categories. When you select a category, only those indicators associated with
the category are displayed in the other panes.
n The centre pane contains a list of available indicators that have not been selected for the product. You can click a
heading to sort the list by the heading.
n The pane on the right contains a list of selected indicators with their description and code. For a new product this
pane contains a list of indicators that are selected by default. For a description of the default indicators, see Default
Indicators. You can click a heading to sort the list by the heading.
n The pane at the bottom of the dialog box displays actuarial documentation for the selected indicator or indicator
category. The documentation explains the purpose of each indicator and the features that can be included in the
product if the indicator is selected.
2. To find the indicator you require, in the list of available indicators (in the centre pane) click the Name heading to
sort the indicators alphabetically, then scroll down the list to find SOLV_MARGIN.
3. To add the indicator to the list of selected indicators in the right pane, you could click the indicator and then click
the right arrow, or double-click the indicator. But for this tutorial, click Wizard to display the Indicator Selection
wizard.
The Indicator Selection wizard divides all the available indicators by category, with one step for each category.
4. Click Next until you get to the Solvency Margin category (Q).
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Selecting the indicators 12
n Below that, the list of indicators shows all the indicators that are in the category.
n The pane to the right of the list of indicators displays some additional usage guidance. If the indicator is a function,
the pane contains a description of when the indicator should or shouldn't be used.
5. In the list of indicators, select the check box for SOLV_MARGIN, then click Finish to return to the Select
Indicators for Product dialog box.
Tip: For more information on any of the indicators refer to the actuarial documentation in the bottom pane.
6. If necessary, in the left pane click All Indicators at the top of the list to display all the indicators.
7. In the Select Indicators for Product dialog box, click OK to accept the amended list. The dialog box closes and the
product is displayed in the work area, in the C_ENDT Preview tab.
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Specifying the input variables 13
You have now completed objective 3 of the lesson. Next you need to specify the input variables.
At a later stage, core variables are added to the product to complete the specification of the calculations. Core variables are
not displayed since their definitions apply across all products.
In the C_ENDT Preview or I_ENDT Preview tab you can see that the status for all the variables, in the Status column, is
Not Defined. In this objective, you will look at all the definitions and either accept the default definition or edit it as required.
You can edit the definitions in any order, but for a new product it is sensible to define them in the order they are displayed in
the list. By default the variables are sorted by code, but you can click any of the headings in the product preview tab if you
want to change the sort order. For this tutorial, keep the variables sorted in the default order. (If you have changed the
order, in the product preview tab click the heading Code.)
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Specifying the input variables 14
As with indicators, each variable is assigned to a category by its variable code. This code is made up of two letters followed
by a two-digit number. The pane on the left lists the variable categories. When you select a category, only those variables
associated with the category are displayed in the other panes.
n To sort the variables by code, in the work area click the Code heading. The first variable in the list is AGE_AT_ENTRY,
which has the code AA40.
General variables
The General variables all have a code starting with A.
1. In the product preview tab, either click AGE_AT_ENTRY and on the Home tab click Open, or double-click AGE_AT_
ENTRY. The work area now contains a local tab for the variable definition, and the Design tab appears on the Prophet
ribbon.
In the AGE_AT_ENTRY tab, the default definition is Model Point. This means that when the product is run, Prophet will
read the value to be used for this variable from the model point file that you will set up for this product, later in the
tutorial.
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Specifying the input variables 15
2. You do not need to change the definition. On the Design tab click OK. The AGE_AT_ENTRY tab closes and Prophet
checks the definition for any syntax or similar errors.
3. In the C_ENDT Preview tab, double-click the next variable - SEX. The SEX tab opens.
The default definition is Model Point. You do not need to change the definition.
4. Because you are working through the variables rather than just opening a single definition, on the Design tab click
Next. The tab in the work area changes to the next variable in the list, ENTRY_YEAR.
ENTRY_YEAR has a formula definition, which for this tutorial does not need to change.
5. Accept the definitions for the following variables without changing them.
1 Prophet expands the list of variables as you accept definitions - this approach is adopted so that variables are not
brought into the product unnecessarily. For example, if you had wanted to change the definition of ENTRY_MONTH
so that it did not use PER_TO_VAL_M, that variable would not have been needed in the product. These variables
(such as PER_TO_VAL_M in this example) are called secondary input variables.
6. When you reach PREM_PAYBL_M (number of months premiums payable) it contains a formula definition, but for this
tutorial it needs to be defined as Model Point.
Notice how the icon in the PREM_PAYPL_M tab has changed to reflect the new definition, from to .
9. On the Design tab click Next, and edit the next few variables as required, according to the following table.
Benefits variables
The Benefits variables all have a code starting with E.
1. On the Design tab click Next, and edit the next few variables as required, according to the following table.
2. When you get to SURR_VAL_PP (surrender value per policy), you need to amend the formula, so that it adheres to the
description given in the initial scenario for this product. (For details see Scenario.)
Note: Type the text exactly as shown here. The text includes a deliberate error so that you can see how Prophet
handles errors. The error will be corrected later in the tutorial.
With this text, typing directly into the Formula Definition pane in the work area, to define the surrender value at the end
of month t as equal to the surrender value at the end of month (t-1) plus half the premium paid in month t, accrued with
interest.
IF t <= 23 THEN
(SURR_VAL_PP(t-1) + PREM_INC_PP(t) * 0.5) * (1 + SURR_INT_PC/100)^(1/12)
Note: Prophet follows the standard conventions regarding the order of operations, which you could clarify by adding
extra brackets.
When typing the name of the variable to include in the formula, as you type the first few letters of the variable a tip
window appears, listing all the variables that start with those letters. Scroll to the required variable and then press Enter,
or press F3 to display the Insert Variable, Dimension or Enumeration dialog box, locate and select the variable and
click OK to enter it into the formula definition.
For further guidance on the syntax used in formulas, see Function syntax.
1. Accept the Reserving / Solvency / Accrual Methods variables as per the following table:
and with-profit products are usually backed by different mixes of assets. You will amend these variables to refer to other
variables which will read the appropriate values from the global file.
1. Open the variable FII_PC (annual rate of franked investment income),which is currently defined as a Constant
definition.
2. On the Design tab click Change Definition Type, and in the Definition Type dialog box, click Formula, then click OK.
In the work area the FII_PC local tab now contains an empty formula.
3. In the Formula Definition pane type NP_FII_PC. When you click Next the variable NP_FII_PC is added to the list in
the C_ENDT Preview tab.
4. On the Design tab click Next. NP_FII_PC (non-profit franked income percentage) appears in the work area as a Global
definition. (You will edit this in the next lesson.)
You have edited the variable in the same way as you edited SURR_VAL_PP earlier, but there is an easier way to edit
this variable as the required formulas have already been set up as "alternative definitions". (Alternative definitions are
alternatives to the default definitions which have been set up in the libraries for a number of variables where commonly
used alternatives exist.)
5. On the Design tab click Next. UFII_PC (annual rate of unfranked investment income) appears in the work area as a
Formula definition.
7. In the Indicator Expression / Description list, click NON PROFIT BUSINESS and then click OK. The definition of
UFII_PC changes the Formula definition to read from NP_UFII_PC. When you click Next the new variable, NP_UFII_
PC, is added to the list in the C_ENDT Preview tab.
8. Continue selecting definitions for the next few variables, accepting the secondary variables that are added, as per the
following table.
9. Edit or accept the remaining interest rates variables as per the following table:
PER_TO_VAL_M Initial period to next For C_ENDT using the Conventional library:
valuation in months Defined as a formula.
n Accept the default definition.
Tax variables
The tax variables all have a code starting with H.
Variable Description
OTAX_FII_PC Office tax rate on franked investment income 1
OTAX_UFII_PC Office tax rate on unfranked investment income 1
OTAX_RCHG_PC Office tax rate on realised chargeable gain 1
OTAX_EXP_PC Office rate of tax relief on expenses 1
ACQ_EXP_TAX Acquisition expenses for tax purposes 1
IMM_EXP_REL Proportion of acquisition expenses for immediate relief 1
ANN_EXP_REL Annualise expense relief 1 = Y, 0 = N 1
OTAX_PROF_PC Tax rate on profits 2
1 Applies to the tutorial product C_ENDT, which uses the Conventional library.
2 Applies to the tutorial product I_ENDT, which uses the International library.
Commission variables
The commission variables all have a code starting with I.
If there are any syntax errors in the formula, an error message with the
probable location of the error is displayed. Correct any errors if necessary.
Note: This approach demonstrates how to use a formula to define initial
commission rates. A formula is only feasible if there is a pattern in the
values. In a later lesson you will see how these values can be entered in
a table that can be read by the product.
Tip: If you cannot remember how to do this, see Interest rates variables
on page Interest rates variables on page 18.
n Accept the secondary variables IC_EARNL_PC and IC_EARN_M that
are added.
IC_EARND_PP Initial commission Defined as a formula.
earned on deaths n Accept the default definition.
per policy
IC_RECOV_PC Percentage Defined as a constant with a value of 100.
commission n Accept the default definition.
recovered on
clawback
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Specifying the input variables 22
Expenses variables
The expenses variables all have a code starting with J.
Mortality variables
The mortality variables all have a code starting with K and relate to the mortality aspect of the tutorial product.
1. The first mortality variable is Q_EXP_PN, which specifies the mortality table used for the experience basis. The work
area for a Mortality Table definition (this is from the C_ENDT product) looks like this:
For C_ENDT using the Conventional library, the mortality table AM92 is used.
For I_ENDT using the International library, you need to use the mortality table GKM80. To change the table:
n In the work area, click Browse, and navigate to the location of the mortality tables. This location is set when Prophet
is first installed.
For example, for Prophet Release 2018 Q3 or later installed on a Windows 10 system the location is
C:\ProgramData\ProphetSuite\Prophet\Mort, or for Prophet 9.0 Update 4 or earlier on a Windows 10 system the
location is C:\ProgramData\SunGard\Prophet\Mort.
Tip: To check the location of the mortality tables, click the File tab and on the backstage view click Options,
then in the Options dialog box in the list on the left click Calculation Engine.
Note: GKM80 is an ultimate table, but the Select/Ultimate setting can be left unchanged as Prophet will ignore
this setting for an ultimate table.
2. Edit or accept the remaining mortality variable definitions as per the following table:
Decrements variables
The Decrements variables all have a code starting with L.
1. The first variable is ANN_LAPSE_PC_BASE, the percentage of policies that lapse or surrender each year. It is defined
as a formula that allows you to enter different lapse rates in the first year, the second year and then subsequent years.
The tutorial product requires the lapse rates to be defined for the first year, for years 2 and 3 and then for subsequent
years, so you need to edit the formula. (For details see Scenario.)
n Change the 24 to 36 so that the next line, YR2_LAPSE_PC * YR2_LAPSE_SY, will apply during the second and the
third years.
2. Accept the remaining decrement variable definitions.
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Saving the product 25
Variable Description
YR1_LAPSE_PC Lapse rate in first year.
YR2_LAPSE_PC Lapse rate in second year.
YR3_LAPSE_PC Lapse rate in third and subsequent years.
SKEW_FACTOR Lapse and paid-up policy skewness factor.
LAPSE_TIMING Lapse timing.
YR1_LAPSE_SY Year 1 lapse rate sensitivity.
YR2_LAPSE_SY Year 2 lapse rate sensitivity.
YR3_LAPSE_SY Year 3 and subsequent lapse rate sensitivity.
ANN_MAT_PC Annual maturity rate.
2. On the Design tab in the Variable group click OK. you are returned to the preview tab in the work area.
Miscellaneous variables
Miscellaneous variables have a code starting with O
Variable Description
EC_SCEN_TAB_INNER Economic Scenarios Table for inner
IFRS variables
IFRS variables have a code starting with P
Variable Description
RFRE_OTAXIPC Note: Appears in C_ENDT using the Conventional library only.
Tax rate on risk free income
You can open your product again in the Model Components group in the Explorer pane when you need to.
Additional information
Input variables
To explain the concept of input variables it is useful to look at the definitions of the variable MAT_BEN_PP (maturity benefit
per policy).
3. In the Explorer pane click Libraries and in the tree double-click Conventional or International. A list of variables in
the library is displayed.
4. To select the variable MAT_BEN_PP, type the letters MAT in quick succession in the list, and if necessary scroll down to
MAT_BEN_PP.
Note: If the variables are not displayed in alphabetical order in the work area, click the Name column heading to
rearrange them. You can expand the columns in the list of definitions pane to show more or less of the Indicator
Expression.
In the Conventional Library, there are two definitions, as shown. (In the International library there are five definitions.)
The definition that is brought into a product depends on the combination of indicators selected.
Your chosen combination of indicators brings in the formula definition SUM_ASSD_PP(t), that is the sum assured. This
is the default definition for a non-profit product. Once the formula has been brought into the product you can amend it if
required.
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Additional information 27
Default Indicators
When you select indicators for a product, the following indicators are selected by default:
Indicator Description
ALWAYS Brings in variables that are required in every product. For example, the age at entry and policy
term variables.
PROJ Used to project business that is already in force and new business. It brings into the product
variables that define, for example, the expired duration and currently declared bonus (if the
product is with-profit). If not selected then these variables are not included and only new
business can be projected.
REG_PREM Used if premiums are to be paid regularly (that is the product is not a single premium contract).
ENDOWMENT Used for an endowment type product. If you wish to model a different type of product, then you
would deselect the ENDOWMENT indicator and select a different indicator (for example
WHOLE_LIFE for a whole life contract).
SURR_VALUES Used if a surrender value is payable on early termination of the policy. If not selected, then it is
assumed that no surrender value is paid if the policy lapses (as would be the case for a term
assurance product).
OTAX_ON_I_E The tax indicator selected by default for a new Conventional business product. It is used if the
tax payable by the office is based on a percentage of investment income and realised
chargeable gains less relievable expenses and annuity payments. This is the basis that applies
to life business in the UK.
OTAX_ON_PROF The tax indicator selected by default for new International products. It is used if the tax payable
is calculated as a percentage of gross profit.
ONE_VALBASIS Used if the same valuation basis is applied to the attaching bonus (if with-profits) and paid-up
policies (if specified) as is applied to the basic benefit.
DISC_PROFITS Used if Prophet is needed to calculate the discounted value of future profits. It allows the
discounting to be at three different interest rates.
Suffix Description
_PC Indicates that the variable takes values entered as a percentage, so 3% would be entered as 3,
for example, VAL_INT_PC.
_M Indicates that the variable takes values entered as months, so 3 years would be entered as 36,
for example, INIT_PER_M.
_Y Indicates that the variable takes values entered as years. For example, POL_TERM_Y.
_PN Indicates that the variable takes values entered as a proportion, for example from a mortality
table, for example, Q_EXP_PN.
_IF Indicates that the variable takes values entered for in force business, for example, NO_POLS_
IF.
_PP Indicates that the variable takes values entered as per policy amounts, for example, MAT_BEN_
PP.
_BASE Indicates that the variable takes values for the base assumptions, for example, RE_FIXED_Y_
BASE.
This table lists some of the more commonly used prefixes. You can examine the variables in a standard library, such as the
Conventional or International library, to identify some other prefixes.
Prefix Description
Q_ Indicates that the variable is a mortality rate variable.
Lesson 1 - Setting up a simple product Lesson summary 28
Prefix Description
IC_ Indicates that the variable is an initial commission variable.
RC_ Indicates that the variable is a renewal commission variable.
VAL_ Indicates that the variable is a value variable, for example VAL_ANN_PREM is the value of
annual premiums.
OTR_ Indicates that the variable is an original term reinsurance variable.
Function syntax
There are some syntax rules and "best practice" guidelines that you should use when editing formulas in Prophet:
n Although excess spaces in formulas are ignored, for readability you should indent the code by two spaces where
appropriate, for example in the lines below IF or ELSE.
Lesson summary
In this lesson you have learned how to use the main features of Prophet Professional to create a new workspace, create a
product and set it up. You have also learned how to select indicators and specify input variables, and how to change the
definition type of input variables. You have seen how Prophet adds secondary input variables when they are referred to in
the Formula Editor as you modify the definition of variables.
Lesson 2 - Setting up model point files and tables 29
Learning objectives 30
Lesson summary 37
Lesson 2 - Setting up model point files and tables Learning objectives 30
Learning objectives
In the second lesson, you will set up the model point files and tables. Model point files contain the policy data that is used as
a starting point for Prophet's calculations. Each model point can represent an individual policy or a group of policies. In the
latter case each model point contains values that overall represent a tranche of business. Model point files are normally set
up using either the Table Editor in Prophet or the Data Conversion System.
Parameter files contain values for all variables where the same value applies across all the model points of each product,
but for which different values can apply to different products. A good example would be lapse rates, where different types of
product may have different lapse profiles.
Global files contain values for variables where the same value applies across all products and model points in your model
office. A typical example would be the risk discount rate, which you would want to keep the same over the whole company.
For more information about tables see the Prophet Professional User Guide.
Note: While working through the tutorial, if you are using the International library, replace "C_ENDT" with "I_ENDT" and
replace "Conventional" with "International" when entering a product or selecting a library.
Note: At any time you can look at the Prophet Professional User Guide or Help file for more information on the Prophet
interface. To do this, click the File tab and on the backstage view click Help.
To view the online help, click Help Topics, or to view the user guide as a PDF file, click User Manuals and then
double-click the PDF for the Prophet Professional User Guide.
It is advisable to complete each lesson in one session. However, if this is not convenient you can pause at the end of an
objective, close Prophet and come back to the tutorial later.
1. On the Home tab click the arrow below New and click New Model Point. The New Table dialog box appears.
Model point files are automatically given the file extension of .rpt.
2. In the Table Name box use the default location, but replace model1.rpt with the name of the product that will be using
the model point file, either C_ENDT or I_ENDT.
Note: Do not press Enter when you have typed the new name.
3. To fill the columns with the names of the variables from the product, click Initialise.
Lesson 2 - Setting up model point files and tables Setting up the model point file 31
The table editor for the new product opens in the work area with the variables you defined in lesson 1 as model points
listed across the top, and the Table tab appears on the Prophet ribbon.
5. Adjust the table properties to give the table a relevant description. On the Table tab click Table Properties.
6. In the Description box type a suitable description, in this case type Tutorial Model Point File, and click OK to
return to the table editor.
7. The values of some variables have fixed ranges. For example, the variable SEX can only take the value of 0 (for male)
or 1 (for female). You can choose whether to display the values or their descriptions. For this tutorial you will enter
descriptions rather than values, so on the Table tab on the Prophet ribbon, in the Format group ensure that the Toggle
Constraints option is selected. For more information see Variable Constraints in the Prophet Professional User Guide
or Help.
Tip: You can see the descriptions for the variables as you are editing the table.
You can now see the descriptions for the variables in the second row of the table.
8. In the table editor, edit the table as per the following table.
Heading Description
SPCODE This is the sub-product code and is used by Prophet when it accumulates the results. Prophet
will automatically sum the results for all of the model points with the same SPCODE. This could
be used for example to make a distinction between the different ways your business is obtained,
for example through direct writing and brokers.
For model office work, set SPCODE to a number between 1 and 50 for in-force business, and to
a number between 51 and 9999 for new business.
The model points must be entered in ascending order of SPCODE in the model point file.
n As you are just going to run one model point for an in-force policy through the product, in this
column type 1.
AGE_AT_ENTRY This is the age of the policyholder at the start of the policy.
n In this column type 30.
SEX n In the list, click Male.
POL_TERM_Y This is the policy term in years.
n In this column type 10.
Lesson 2 - Setting up model point files and tables Setting up a parameter file 33
Heading Description
ANNUAL_PREM This is the annualised premium payable.
n In this column type 840.
PREM_PAYBL_M For this tutorial, this value should be set equal to the policy term multiplied by 12.
(This is not really the recommended way, it is better to define it as a formula in the product
instead of a model point.)
n In this column type 120.
PREM_FREQ This is how frequently the premium is payable.
n In the list click Monthly.
SUM_ASSURED This is the basic sum assured.
n In this column type 10000.
DURATIONIF_M This is the duration of time in months that the policy has been in force.
If premiums are paid monthly, then it is the same as the number of premiums which have been
collected. You will assume that the contract was taken out on 1 June 2015, and so 7 months
have elapsed since the contract was taken out.
n In this column type 7.
INIT_POLS_IF This is the initial number of policies in force.
n In this column type 1.
MTHS_TO_SALE This is used for new business in model point method of new business which we are not using in
this tutorial
n In this column type 0.
9. On the Table tab click Save, and in the confirmation message box click OK to accept the filename and location.
Note: The example used in this tutorial does not really emphasise the advantages of using parameter files because you
currently have only one product. In practice you would normally have more than one product and so parameter files
would be used for variables whose values change across products.
1. On the Home tab click the arrow below New and on the list click New Table.
2. Click Parameter and then click Initialise. The Select Products dialog box appears.
3. Select C_ENDT if you are using the Conventional library or I_ENDT if you are using the International library and click
OK.
Lesson 2 - Setting up model point files and tables Setting up a parameter file 34
An empty parameter file opens in the work area with the variables you defined in lesson 1 as parameters listed across
the top, and the Table tab appears on the Prophet ribbon.
Variable Description
IE_FIXED_BASE This is the fixed initial expenses.
n In this column type 160.
PROP_EXPQ_PC This is the percentage of the mortality table used for the experience that you wish to use.
n In this column type 85.
PROP_VALQ_PC This is the percentage of the valuation mortality table that you wish to use.
n In this column type 100.
RC_RATE_PC This is the renewal commission rate.
n In this column type 3.
RE_FIXED_Y_BASE This is the current rate of fixed renewal expenses.
n In this column type 24.
VAL_INT_PC This is the valuation interest rate used for calculating the mathematical reserves.
n In this column type 3.
YR1_LAPSE_PC This is the lapse rate assumed to apply for the first policy year.
n In this column type 10.
YR2_LAPSE_PC This is the lapse rate for the second and third policy years.
n In this column type 7.5.
YR3_LAPSE_PC This is the lapse rate for the remaining duration of the policy.
n In this column type 3.
5. To add a description to the newly created table, on the Table tab click Table Properties.
6. In the Description box type a meaningful description: in this case Tutorial Parameter File, and click OK.
7. On the Table tab click Save, or click the arrow below Save and in the list click Save Table As.
8. In the File Name box change the default name param1.fac to paramet.fac and click OK.
Tip: If you cannot remember how to do this, see the last step in the previous lesson, Setting up the model point file.
Tip: If you cannot remember how to do this, see Setting up a parameter file.
2. Edit the table properties to add the description Tutorial Global File.
3. In the Properties dialog box, Change the value for Number of Run Numbers to 1 and click OK.
Tip: If you see a message warning you that you will lose the last column of data, click OK, as for this tutorial you
only need data for a single run.
n On the Table tab in the Update group click Add Variables, in the Select Products dialog box click the Tutorial
Product and click OK.
Lesson 2 - Setting up model point files and tables Setting up a global file 36
The table in the work area looks similar to the following. (This example is from the Conventional product, the
International product only includes one tax variable.)
Tip: When you are using Prophet in practice it is possible to set up the global file to perform multiple sensitivity runs
by adding further columns. To do this, either alter the value for Number of Run Numbers in the Properties dialog
box, or right-click in the table and on the menu click Add Column. New columns have the headings RUN_02, RUN_
03 and so on.
Note: The sum of the above five components of investment return equal to 6.5%. This is equal to (0.75 * 7 + 0.25 *
5), the overall return specified in Lesson 1.
6. For the Conventional library product, enter the following tax values:
For the International library product, enter the following one tax value:
Tip: You can add further columns and rows to your tables, as required. For more details, see Setting up tables in the
Prophet Professional User Guide.
8. Save the table with the name GLOBAL.FAC to the default location, then close the table.
Tip: If you cannot remember how to do this, see the final steps of Setting up a parameter file.
Lesson summary
In this lesson you have set up model point files and tables, including parameter and global files. You have learned how to
create new tables of different types.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product 38
Learning objectives 39
Setting up a structure 39
Lesson summary 54
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Learning objectives 39
Learning objectives
In this lesson you will set up a run structure and a run setting, run the product, identify and resolve an error and then view
the results. You will also learn how to print results.
The run setting determines how you want to run the structure that you set up in the previous lesson. When you run the
product you define which structure and which run setting you want to use, also known as a run pairing.
Note: While working through the tutorial, if you are using the International library, replace "C_ENDT" with "I_ENDT" and
replace "Conventional" with "International" when entering a product or selecting a library.
1. Setting up a structure.
5. Printing results.
Note: At any time you can look at the Prophet Professional User Guide or Help file for more information on the Prophet
interface. To do this, click the File tab and on the backstage view click Help.
To view the online help, click Help Topics, or to view the user guide as a PDF file, click User Manuals and then
double-click the PDF for the Prophet Professional User Guide.
It is advisable to complete each lesson in one session. However, if this is not convenient you can pause at the end of an
objective, close Prophet and come back to the tutorial later.
Setting up a structure
Before you can start a run you need to create a structure, to include the Tutorial product that you set up in Lesson 1.
1. To do this, on the Home tab in the Edit group click the arrow below New then click New Structure.
The Structure dialog box appears, with the Model Components tab displayed.
2. In the Name box, type Tutorial Structure, then click Select Products.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Setting up a run setting 40
The Available Products list contains all the products which can be selected, the Selected Products list contains all
the products which have been selected.
3. In the Available Products list, either click C_ENDT (or I_ENDT) and click the right arrow, double-click it, or click and
drag it to the Selected Products list.
Tip: Tip: This dialog box uses a standard format that you will see throughout Prophet.
You can move items from one list to another by selecting items and using the arrows between the lists, double-
clicking the item, or by clicking and dragging.
4. To add the selected product to the Products list in the Structure dialog box, click OK. The Select Products dialog box
closes and you are returned to the Structure dialog box.
Note: This tutorial does not use accumulations, which allow results from one or more products to be aggregated
together, or structure links, which are part of the Nested Structures module. You can learn about accumulations in
the Model Office Tutorial, and about structure links in the Nested Structures User Guide.
5. As you do not need to edit any settings on the Configuration tab, click OK to close the Structure dialog box.
You can access the tutorial structure in the Explorer pane in the Run Control section.
1. On the Home tab click the arrow below New and click New Run Setting. The Select Run Setting Type dialog box
appears.
Note: If you are returning to the tutorial after a break, on the Start page open the Tutorial workspace, then in the
Explorer pane in the Run Control pane, double-click the run setting to open it in the work area.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Setting up a run setting 41
2. Click Calculation Run and then click OK. The Run Setting - Calculation Run dialog box appears.
3. In the Name box type Tutorial Run Setting and leave both the Stochastic and Dynamic check boxes clear.
4. The Run Parameters tab allows you to specify the start date and the future and past accumulation periods. In the
General section complete the settings as follows:
Month in which Used to ensure that reporting by company year n Accept the default of 12.
Company Year Ends is handled correctly within Prophet.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Setting up a run setting 42
Past Accumulation The number of years of results prior to the start n Leave the default value unchanged, with a
Period date of the projection that will be included in the value of 0.
results files produced by Prophet. It primarily
enables you to produce output for checking
historic asset share calculations.
The other options in this tab are not needed in the run, so you can leave them as they are.
Tip: Tip: If you want to investigate the other options further, you may like to work through the Model Office Tutorial
when you have finished this tutorial.
You can also expand the Advanced - Batch Programs section to see further options that allow additional programs to
be specified that can be run at specific points in a run, but for this tutorial you are not running batch programs.
The Tables tab contains options that specify the following settings:
n The location and file extension of the model point files for the structure.
n The locations and names of the global, parameter and prices files.
n The location and name of the sales file which contains assumptions about future new business volumes.
Note: Unless you specify the complete location including the drive letter or UNC path, any location you enter is
taken relative to the workspace location.
The default location for the model point files is MPFILES, which means that, if you have installed the tutorial on the C:
drive and in the location Prophet_Tutorial, then the model point files will be read from C:\Prophet_Tutorial\MPFILES.
The default location for all the other files is the TABLES location and is handled similarly.
n This tutorial uses the default locations and names and does not use a unit prices file or a sales file, so in the Sales
File box delete the default entry, and ensure that the Unit Prices File and Table of Tables boxes are also empty.
6. Click the Results tab. This tab enables you to specify what kind of output is to be generated in the run and the
format(s) in which it is to be produced.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Setting up a run setting 44
Select the Projection / NB Profile check box and clear all the others.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Setting up a run setting 45
n Cumulative: Results contain values for all the variables with the
cumulative property check box selected. This is normally all
variables for which it makes sense to sum values across model
points. If the cumulative property of a variable is checked, its values
are also aggregated across products if accumulations are being
used.
Note: Variables which are defined as, or which evaluate to, constant
values are always included in the results files. This includes all
variables defined using either global or parameter definitions. In
addition, the values for the first model point of each sub-product
code are included for all variables defined as model point.
Select All so that you can inspect the values of all the variables in your
product.
Product Total Results Allow you to specify This can improve run times and reduce unnecessary disk space as
Files (00) which Product Total unwanted results files are not created.
Results files can be n Accept the default setting to create results files for both sub-product
suppressed. codes and product totals.
You can specify whether output files are to be generated which contain a line of results for each model point. If selected,
individual model point results are produced in Prophet’s model point file format. These files contain the values at the
projection start date (that is, at t = DUR_M) for each of the variables in the specified variable group.
Tip: Tip: For more information on variable groups see Managing Variable Groups in the Prophet Professional User
Guide or Help file.
This section allows you to define how files are deleted and created during a run and what results are retained in
memory.
This section allows you to save results in a text format instead of in Prophet's own results format, which can then be
used in other applications. It also allows you to retain the intermediate results generated in dynamic runs and debug
dynamic runs.
11. Click the Runtime Configuration tab. This tab allows you to specify how it is to be split among other PCs when
Parallel PC mode is used, the type of run and how errors are handled.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Setting up a run setting 47
For this tutorial you will perform the run on your local machine, so do not make any changes.
This section allows you to specify the maximum number of errors allowed before Prophet terminates the calculations for
a particular product and the maximum number of warnings before termination of an accumulation. The default is zero,
which means that the calculations for a product is terminated if or when the first error occurs. If you enter 10, a product is
be terminated when the 11th error occurs. If you select the No Limit check boxes, Prophet continues the calculations
irrespective of the number of errors that occur.
The model point file you are using for this product contains only one model point, so you only want results if no errors
occur.
This section allows you to specify the order in which products are run and the seed values to be used for stochastic
runs.
You have now completed the second objective for this lesson. Next you will run the product.
In Lesson 1 you deliberately incorporated an error in a formula, so in this lesson you will run the product and be alerted to
the error, then fix the error and re-run the product.
1. In the Explorer pane click the newly created run setting or the Tutorial structure, and on the Home tab in the Run group
click Run.
This dialog box displays some of the run settings that you defined in the previous lesson and allows you to select a run
pairing, if you have created more than one. For this tutorial you have only created one pairing, but in practice you may
create several.
2. In the Run Control group, for this tutorial ensure the Show Hints check box is clear, then click OK.
Prophet first carries out various checks such as ensuring that all the model point files exist for the products included in
the run and that the global and parameter files specified in the structure exist.
As the run proceeds, Prophet identifies the error that you introduced in Lesson 1, and the Run Monitor appears as
follows:
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Running the product 50
The Results Viewer window contains a tree with the sections of the runlog and a scrollable list containing several
sections that you can expand and collapse.
To navigate the results you can use the scroll bar, expand or collapse the sections or click items in the tree structure.
5. Scroll to the bottom of the list to the Errors and Warnings section. You can see that there are three errors in
Execution.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Viewing results produced in a run 51
6. In the tree structure expand the Execution folder if necessary, then click the product that you ran. The work area in the
Results Viewer contains the following information:
You can see from the error message that there is a problem with variable SURR_VAL_PP in product C_ENDT. (If you
are using the international library the error will be in product I_ENDT.)
8. In the Explorer pane open the product, and then double-click SURR_VAL_PP to open it in the work area.
Tip: Tip: To find the variable easily, in the work area sort by Code and scroll to ED10, or sort by name and scroll to
the variable.
Taking a look at SURR_VAL_PP, you can see that the first part of the formula refers to itself at time (t-1). It is a
"recursive" formula which is necessarily evaluated by starting at t = 0 and moving forward one month at a time.
However, at time period 0 (when the error occurred) this formula will reference the value at t = -1. As t can only take
positive values, this term has caused the error.
9. To rectify the error, replace the first line with the following:
IF t = 0 THEN
0
ELSE IF t <= 23 THEN
10. On the Design tab click OK, then save your product.
11. Re-run the product, then examine the run log, as described above. You can see that there are now no errors.
Results types can be used to specify the type of results you want to view.
2. Double-click C_ENDT#1.proj (or I_ENDT#1.proj) in the tree to display the following screen:
From here, you can use the Analyse and Format tabs to filter and explore the selected results.
Variable Groups
On the Analyse tab, the Filter group includes two lists - Variable Category and Variable Group. These lists reflect the
categories and groups of the variables in the Select Variables dialog box which you used to set up the product, as well as
additional options in the Variable Category list that allow you to select All Variables or Cumulative Variables.
1. In the Variable Category and Variable Group lists, change the selections and watch the results in the work area. The
results on the screen change to reflect the new selections.
3. Change the Variable Group back to A10 - Revenue Account / Profit Test.
Time Periods
1. On the Format tab, in the Results group click Time Periods. The Time Periods dialog box appears.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Viewing results produced in a run 53
The settings in this dialog box allow you to define the time periods for which you want to display results. You can choose
to display your results monthly, quarterly, half-yearly, annually and/or 5-yearly for a specified number of years or to the
end of results.
n In the Number of Years column, in the Monthly row enter 1. This will display one year of monthly results.
n In the To End of Results column, select the check box in the Annually row. This displays annual results to the end
of the results.
Viewing results
The remaining body of the results window displays the results. It is divided into two tabbed sections:
You can also choose to display either the variables or the time periods as the columns.
To switch between them click Swap in the corner of the grid of values.
n Set the display so that the variables are in columns and the time periods are in rows.
Copying Results
If you want to copy results, for example to Microsoft Excel or Word, right-click in the results and on the menu click one of the
following options:
Option Description
Copy This option copies a selected range of cells. You can also do this from the Clipboard group of
the Home tab on the ribbon.
Lesson 3 - Setting up, running and reporting on a product Lesson summary 54
Option Description
Copy Grid This copies the entire grid of values including the top and left borders to the Windows clipboard.
You can also do this from the General group of the Results tab of the ribbon.
Copy Grid to Excel This copies the entire grid to Excel. You can also do this from the General group of the Results
tab of the ribbon.
Printing results
If required, you can also print the results from a run.
To print results:
1. Click the File tab and on the Backstage view click Print.
2. Select the Grid Values and Constant Values check boxes and click OK.
Lesson summary
In this lesson you have set up a run structure and a run setting and run the product. You have also identified an error and
resolved it, and then viewed and printed the results.
Lesson 4 - Reporting on dependencies in Diagram View 55
Learning objectives 56
Filtering views 59
Lesson summary 62
Lesson 4 - Reporting on dependencies in Diagram View Learning objectives 56
Learning objectives
In this lesson you will learn how to use Results Diagram View to examine the results of your run.
Results Diagram View allows you to view all the variables and formulas in a product, the dependencies between the
variables and their values.
Note: While working through the tutorial, if you are using the International library, replace "C_ENDT" with "I_ENDT" and
replace "Conventional" with "International" when entering a product or selecting a library.
4. Filtering views.
Note: At any time you can look at the Prophet Professional User Guide or Help file for more information on the Prophet
interface. To do this, click the File tab and on the backstage view click Help.
To view the online help, click Help Topics, or to view the user guide as a PDF file, click User Manuals and then
double-click the PDF for the Prophet Professional User Guide.
It is advisable to complete each lesson in one session. However, if this is not convenient you can pause at the end of an
objective, close Prophet and come back to the tutorial later.
If using the conventional library this is C_ENDT#1.proj, if using the international library this is I_ENDT#1.proj.
2. Right-click the projection name, on the menu point to Open then click Open Results Diagram View.
OR
On the Home tab click the arrow below Open and on the menu click Open Results Diagram.
Lesson 4 - Reporting on dependencies in Diagram View Opening Results Diagram View 57
The Analyse and Format tabs appear on the ribbon and the Results Diagram View appears in the work area.
n On the Format tab there are several options that allow you to change the display settings for the font, number, names
and to specify which time periods to display the results for.
n To hide variables which have zero values, on the Format tab click Suppress Zeros.
n To show or hide the dependency trees, on the Format tab click Dependency Trees.
n To move backwards and forwards through a history of the variables that you have selected as the current variable, on
the Analyse tab click Back or Forward.
n To display other options for Results Diagram View, on the Format tab click Diagram Options.
OR
Click File and on the backstage view click Options. The Options dialog box appears. In the list click Customize GUI,
then click the Diagram Options tab.
n To specify which types of variables are highlighted and in which colours, select the check boxes for the variable
types and select the required colours.
n To specify whether the three results panes are synchronised or you can scroll each one independently, select or
clear the Synchronize results panes check box.
You should now spend some time moving through the variables in the product you have created, exploring the
dependencies between them, and adjusting some of the options.
Lesson 4 - Reporting on dependencies in Diagram View Viewing variable dependencies 58
n Variable dependencies
n Variable definition
n Results values
You can adjust the size of any pane by dragging its borders.
Variable dependencies
The left pane shows all the visible precedents, direct or otherwise, of the current variable - that is, the complete list of
variables on which the current variable depends.
The centre pane of the top section shows the direct relationships between the current variable (in this case, MATH_RES_
IF) and other variables in the product. The current variable is also displayed in the Variable list in the Analyse tab of the
ribbon.
The right pane shows all the visible dependents of the current variable - that is, the complete list of variables which depend
on the current variable.
Variable definition
The middle section displays the name, description, type, variable code and definition of the current variable, and any
associated actuarial or formula block documentation. For non time-dependent variables, the value is also displayed in this
section. In the case of model point variables and other non time-dependent variables that have values that vary between
model points, the value for the first model point of the current sub-product is displayed.
Tip: If you move the mouse pointer over any variable name in the top section, the middle section displays information
about that variable instead of the current one.
Lesson 4 - Reporting on dependencies in Diagram View Filtering views 59
Results values
The three panes in the bottom section show the values of time-dependent variables in your product.
n The left pane shows the values of the variables on which the current variable depends.
n The right pane shows the values of the variables that depend on the current variable.
Filtering views
You can change how you view variable dependencies in several ways:
n To expand the tree structure in the left or right panes, click the + sign beside a variable that has precedents (in the left
pane) or dependents (in the right pane).
n To make any variable in the product the current variable, either click the variable in the centre pane, or on the Analyse
tab in the Variable list select the required variable.
Tip: If you type in the first few letters of its name in quick succession, the first variable starting with those letters is
highlighted.
You can use the filters in the top left and top right panes to filter the precedents and dependents of the diagram in order to
focus on the path you are interested in.
For this exercise, you will look at which variables that feed into the PROFIT variable are influenced by mathematical
reserve (C_MATHRES_IF).
On the Analyse tab of the ribbon, in the Variable list select PROFIT.
The left pane now shows PROFIT as the current variable and the centre pane shows the precedents and dependents of
PROFIT.
2. In the left pane expand the PROFIT and GROSS_PROFIT variables. GROSS_PROFIT contains 14 variables in the
conventional product, 17 in the international product.
Lesson 4 - Reporting on dependencies in Diagram View Identifying changes required for enhancements 60
3. In the left pane change the FILTER BY PRECEDENT to C_MATHRES_IF and expand PROFIT and GROSS_PROFIT.
Note that GROSS_PROFIT now only shows 4 child variables.
Only the variables that are derived, either directly or indirectly, from C_MATHRES_IF are displayed. As you further
expand the tree, C_MATHRES_IF can be seen at the end of each branch.
n Use different valuation interest rates depending on the valuation series to which each model point belongs.
The first stage in this process is to identify the variables that need to be changed in the product.
1. From the Analyse tab of the ribbon, make VAL_INT_PC the current variable.
The top section of the work area now looks like this:
When you look at its dependencies you can see that VAL_INT_PC is only used in the variable M_VAL_INT, which in
turn is only used in the valuation commutation functions, so VAL_INT_PC is the variable that needs to be edited.
2. For the second enhancement you want to change the experience mortality to depend on sex. You can use the tree to
identify the correct variable.
In the Explorer pane in the Model Components pane, expand the details of the product C_ENDT.
Lesson 4 - Reporting on dependencies in Diagram View Identifying changes required for enhancements 61
The product expands, and shows which library it was created from. In this case Conventional.
You can also expand the model point files associated with the product, the indicators, the variable definitions and the
results.
3. Expand Input Variable Definitions. This gives you the full list of input variables in the product.
4. Right-click Input Variable Definitions, on the menu point to Group By and then click Variable Main Category.
The definitions are now grouped by category in a similar way to when you were defining the variables.
Referring to the product listing you produced earlier, you will see the input variables for mortality in the section headed
K-Mortality.
6. Hover over the variables in this category. The tool tip for Q_EXP_PN is Experience Mortality Rates; this is the variable
we want to change.
You can see that the mortality rates on the experience basis are only used in the variable Q_EXP_BASE. This means
that amending Q_EXP_PN will have no wider, unintended effects.
There are already variables set up in the library to distinguish between male and female mortality experience. These
are:
Q_EXP_MALE KA11
Q_EXP_FEMALE KA12
Lesson 4 - Reporting on dependencies in Diagram View Lesson summary 62
The best way to make the change is to define Q_EXP_PN as a formula which picks out the correct mortality table
dependent on the policyholder's sex using these two variables. You will do this in the next lesson.
Lesson summary
In this lesson you have examined the interface of Results Diagram View and learned how to customise it and used the
graphical representation and filtering to identify the effects of variables on other variables. You have also used it to identify
which variables you need to change in order to implement some enhancements to the product.
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products 63
Learning objectives 64
Lesson summary 78
Conclusion 78
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Learning objectives 64
Learning objectives
In this lesson you will add a new variable to the library so that you can make the enhancements discussed in the previous
lesson. The required enhancements are:
n Use different valuation interest rates depending on the valuation series to which each model point belongs.
You will use the Formula Wizard to edit formulas, and Product Design View to examine the relationship between variables.
Note: While working through the tutorial, if you are using the International library, replace "C_ENDT" with "I_ENDT" and
replace "Conventional" with "International" when entering a product or selecting a library.
Note: At any time you can look at the Prophet Professional User Guide or Help file for more information on the Prophet
interface. To do this, click the File tab and on the backstage view click Help.
To view the online help, click Help Topics, or to view the user guide as a PDF file, click User Manuals and then
double-click the PDF for the Prophet Professional User Guide.
It is advisable to complete each lesson in one session. However, if this is not convenient you can pause at the end of an
objective, close Prophet and come back to the tutorial later.
1. In the Explorer pane click Model Components, expand the product you have created and double-click the library to
open it.
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Adding a new variable to the library 65
2. As you want to add a new variable to the library, on the Home tab click the arrow below New and on the menu click New
Variable.
5. Complete the Workspace Level Properties section of the dialog box according to the following table.
For further details on Enumerations and Scenarios please see the Prophet Professional User Guide
As the remaining workspace level properties are beyond the scope of this tutorial, leave the other check boxes in the
Workspace Level Properties group clear.
6. Complete the Library Level Properties section of the dialog box according to the following table.
The variable VALN_SERIES is highlighted in the list of variables. From here you can create and amend the definitions that
already exist for the variable and change it or create a new one. In this case there are no definitions because you have just
created this variable.
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Updating the product 67
1. In the main work area, right-click VALN_SERIES and on the menu click New Variable Definition. The Definition Type
dialog box appears.
2. Click Model Point and then click OK to close the dialog box.
The main work area contains a screen similar to when you specified the product, but the bottom part of the screen now
contains a section titled Indicator Expression.
Note: When creating your own products you will be able to specify the indicator or the specific combination of
indicators that would bring the variable into a product, but for this tutorial you do not need to add an indicator
expression. For further information, see Libraries in the Prophet Professional User Guide or Help.
The model point definition screen closes and you are returned to the definitions window, but instead of it being empty
you can see the definition you have created, which means that you have finished creating the variable, which will only
be brought into the product when it is referred to by another input variable.
First, you need to update the variable definition that determines mortality rates, because you want to distinguish between
male and female.
Tip: In the Explorer pane you can see the product in the Model Components pane.
You should normally select Yes when this dialog is displayed. Prophet then scans all the input variables in the library to
check if any need to be added or removed from the product. This ensures that your product reflects any changes you
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Updating the product 68
have made to variables in the library. In this case, clicking Yes or No has the same effect since your new variable has a
blank indicator expression and hence will not be brought into the product until it is referred to by another variable.
2. Click Yes.
Prophet scans the input variables in the library and then lists them in the main work area.
3. Select Q_EXP_PN (code KA10). This is the variable definition for Experience Mortality Rates, which you want to adjust
depending on the whether the policyholder is male or female.
Tip: To find variables easily, you can sort the variables according to the headings. Click the Code heading to sort by
variable code.
You could double-click the definition to open it, or on the Home tab click Open, but for the purpose of this tutorial you
will edit it in Product Diagram View.
4. On the Home tab in the List View group click Diagram. The following screen appears.
In the main work area, in the top left pane or the top centre pane, right-click Q_EXP_PN, on the menu point to Change
Definition Type to and click Formula.
Tip: Another way to change the definition type is to open the definition and on the Design tab click Change
Definition Type, as you did in Lesson 1.
IF SEX = 0 THEN
Q_EXP_MALE
ELSE IF SEX = 1 THEN
Q_EXP_FEMALE
ELSE
ERROR("Invalid value entered for variable SEX")
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Updating the product 69
Note: The ERROR function in the last line of this formula will cause a run error if an invalid value has been entered
for the variable SEX. The text inside the quotation marks will appear in the run log. Note that there is a similar
function called WARNING, which allows the run to continue but produces a warning message in the run log.
Tip: You could click OK on the Design tab to close the definition, then open Q_EXP_MALE. However, if you sorted
the variable definitions by code in step 3 above, on the Design tab click Next to accept the new definition and open
the next definition in the list.
8. Click Next to accept the default definition for Q_EXP_MALE and open Q_EXP_FEMALE.
9. On the Design tab click OK to accept the default definition for Q_EXP_FEMALE and return to Product Diagram View.
The dependencies view for Q_EXP_PN have been updated to show the new dependencies. You can expand the list of
precedents in the top left pane to also show the tables and mortality points linked to the precedents:
Using the new formula, both male and female mortality tables are loaded into memory at the start of a run and the
appropriate values (based on age at entry) are then read into the Q_EXP_MALE and Q_EXP_FEMALE variables.
However, only one of these variables will be used as the experience mortality for any one model point, depending on the
value of the variable SEX.
You can enhance the formula for Q_EXP_PN to demonstrate the use of the function READ_MORT_TABLE. It uses only
one variable (SEX) rather than three (SEX, Q_EXP_MALE and Q_EXP_FEMALE). The function READ_MORT_TABLE
has the same parameters as those that must be specified if a variable is defined as a mortality table. These are the name of
the mortality table, the age at entry variable, select or ultimate setting and age rating.
You will edit the formula and use the Formula Wizard to do so. The Formula Wizard can be a useful way to enter formulas in
several areas of Prophet.
1. Open Q_EXP_PN and delete the formula from the second line onwards, leaving just the first line.
IF SEX = 0 THEN
2. With your cursor on the second line, press Shift-F3, or on the Design tab in the Formula Editing group, click the arrow
below Insert and click Function.
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Updating the product 70
You will use the Function Wizard to enter the rest of the formula:
IF SEX = 0 THEN
READ_MORT_TABLE("AM92", AGE_AT_ENTRY, "S", 0)
ELSE IF SEX = 1 THEN
READ_MORT_TABLE("AF92", AGE_AT_ENTRY, "S", 0)
ELSE
ERROR("Invalid value entered for variable SEX")
Note: International library users should use GKM80 and GKF80 respectively instead of AM92 and AF92.
3. In the Function Category list click Read, then in the Function Name list click READ_MORT_TABLE.
Note: Ensure that you include the quote marks as shown in the formula.
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Updating the product 71
7. Add the rest of the formula, either by typing or using the Formula Wizard.
8. On the Design tab click OK to return to Product Diagram View. Notice that the dependencies have been updated.
This formula does not reference the Q_EXP_MALE and Q_EXP_FEMALE variables so they are not required in the
product. Because you typed in the first suggested approach before switching to the second method, the variables will
still be included in the product.
Note: You can switch between Product Diagram View and the original list of variables using the Details, Diagram
and List icons on the Home tab. This can be useful because you can use the outline to help you select the variable
you want to look at. Prophet remembers which variable is selected when you move between the views in this way.
When you do this, the list of variables will include the core variables as well as the input variables. However, you
cannot edit the core variables from either of the views. This can only be done from within the library.
9. Switch to Details view. You will notice that Q_EXP_MALE and Q_EXP_FEMALE are still in the list.
10. To remove them from the product, on the Object tab click Re-Scan.
Valuation series
You have set up the variable VALN_SERIES in the library with a default definition of model point. You will now amend the
product so that if this variable takes the value 0, the policy forms part of the old series, and if it takes the value 1, it will form
part of the new series.
IF VALN_SERIES = 0 THEN
2.75
ELSE IF VALN_SERIES = 1 THEN
3.0
ELSE
ERROR("Invalid value entered for variable VALN_SERIES")
5. View VALN_SERIES in Product Diagram View. You can see that VALN_SERIES is shown as being used by VAL_INT_
PC. It has been brought into the product as a result of your referencing it in VAL_INT_PC.
6. When you created it you gave VALN_SERIES a model point default definition in the library. To accept this definition
open the variable and on the Design tab click OK.
When you initially set up the product you entered a formula for the variable IC_RATE_PC (Initial Commission Rate), but
now you will change it to have a generic table definition.
1. The definition type for the variable IC_RATE_PC is currently defined as a formula but you need to change it to a
Generic Table. The Generic Table Definition is shown in the main work area.
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Updating the product 72
3. To enter the index variable names you can type the name directly in the box, use the arrow at the end of the box to
select from a list, or click the Insert Variable button. The main differences between the two lists are:
n The drop down list includes special names such as VAR_NAME and PROD_NAME which can only be used as index
variables. These aren't included in the Insert Variable list because they are not true variables.
n The Insert Variable list shows the descriptions for each variable whereas the drop down list only shows the names.
Tip: When selecting from a list, type the first few letters of the name to jump to names that start with those letters.
As an alternative to defining the variable IC_RATE_PC as a generic table, you could have used the READ_GENERIC_
TABLE function. If you had done this, you would have used the following formula:
READ_GENERIC_TABLE("INIT_COM","Y",POL_TERM_Y,"VAR_NAME")
where the terms inside the brackets correspond to the entries "Table Name", "Treat Missing Value as Error", "1st Index
Variable" and "2nd Index Variable".
Note: The first two arguments are text strings and require double quotes. VAR_NAME would also need to be in double
quotes because it is not the name of an actual variable.
If for the Index Variable arguments you wish to use the values calculated for particular variables rather than the names
themselves, they should not be entered in double quotes.
For more information about the use of Prophet’s READ functions, refer to the Prophet Professional Help.
1. On the Home tab click the arrow below Open, point to Open Table and then click TABLES\INIT_COM.FAC.
5. Click OK. The new generic table appears in the main work area with the specified number of rows and columns.
Tip: To adjust the width of a column, drag its right-hand edge in the header area and update the contents of the
table by pressing F9.
3. In the first column, enter all the possible values - that is, every number from 5 through to 30.
Tip: The easiest way to do this is to enter 5 in the first row below the header and 30 in the last row. Select all the
rows and on the Table tab click the arrow below Fill, then click Interpolate Values.
4. In the second column, enter the commission rates that correspond to each premium paying term, interpolating where
necessary.
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Viewing scenarios that show the effects of product changes 75
Tip: Select the cell you want to replicate and on the Table tab click the arrow below Fill, then click Replicate Down
to copy the number from year 20 to 30.
5. On the Table tab click Save. The Save As dialog box appears.
7. In the main work area close the table, then on the Home tab click Save to save the product.
1. In the Explorer pane in the Model Components pane expand the product, expand the Model Point Files folder and
then the Extension: .RPT folder.
2. Open c_endt.rpt.
You can see the variable VALN_SERIES has been added to the far right of the model point file.
Tip: Right-click in the table and on the menu click Add Row.
The first model point represents a policy for a male, and the second represents a policy for a female. Note that the lower
annual premium for females reflects the lower expected mortality rates.
7. On the Table tab click the arrow below Save and click Save Table As, and save the table as c_endt.002.
1. Add another row to the table and enter the following details:
Tip: In the Explorer pane select the product, on the Home tab click Run, then in the dialog box click OK.
We have deliberately omitted a stage in this process in order to create an error in the run, which you can trace in the next
section. Can you identify the error now?
2. Scroll down to see the Errors and Warnings section. You can see that the errors occur in the Execution stage.
3. Expand the Execution section and click Execution. You will see error messages similar to these:
These messages indicate that a variable is missing from the model point file that is being read. This has occurred
because the model point file extension in the Tables tab in the Tutorial run setting was not changed from .RPT to .002
before the product was run, so the run is looking at the wrong model point file.
Tip: It is good practice to look at the run log every time a product is run. However, if you had gone straight to
Results, the product C_ENDT would not have been available for selection, as there are no results to report on.
5. To change the model point file extension, open the Tutorial run setting and on the Tables tab amend the File
Extension for Model Point Files to 002, then save and close the run setting.
You can see the effect of the changes that were made by looking at the results for sub-product codes 1, 2 and 3.
Lesson 5 - Updating libraries and products Lesson summary 78
Lesson summary
In this lesson you have added a new variable to a library and used that new variable in your product to implement the
enhancements suggested in an earlier lesson.
You have used the Formula Wizard to edit formulas, and Product Design View to examine the relationship between
variables.
Conclusion
You have now completed the Introduction to Prophet Tutorial and should be ready to tackle some real tasks using Prophet.
n Accumulations.
n Summary library.
n Use Help or the Prophet Professional User Guide. At any time you can look at the Prophet Professional User Guide or
Help file for more information on the Prophet interface. To do this, click the File tab and on the backstage view click
Help.
To view the online help, click Help Topics, or to view the user guide as a PDF file, click User Manuals and then double-
click the PDF for the Prophet Professional User Guide.
n Refer to actuarial documentation. This supplies detailed information on Prophet libraries, indicators and variables. To
view the actuarial documentation, Click the File tab and on the Backstage view click Global Actuarial
Documentation. You can also view context-sensitive actuarial documentation by opening the Context Actuarial
Documentation pane at the bottom of the screen.
n Finally, experiment with the system and the calculations you can set up.
79
Part 2 - Appendices
Appendix A - Further topics 80
Further topics
Regenerating products 81
Regenerating products
The Prophet regeneration option forces code for one or more products to be regenerated when they are next included in the
calculation run.
n If libraries and products, but not the compiled product executable files, are copied between computers.
n If a new release of Prophet is installed which requires the code to be regenerated to enable new features.
n To bring a new input variable into the products, where the default definition is the required one for each product.
To re-scan products:
1. In the Explorer pane select a product, then on the Object tab, in the Product group, click Auto-Scan.
2. Highlight a product and use the arrows to move products between the Available Products and Selected products list,
then click OK to start the scan.
Appendix A - Further topics Re-scanning products using Auto-Scan 82
This section contains the details for the model point, parameter and global file for the C_ENDT product to help you
understand and identify any mistakes that may have been made.
Parameter file
Global file
Appendix C - International product input files Model point files 84
This section contains the details for the model point, parameter and global file for the I_ENDT product to help you
understand and identify any mistakes that may have been made.
Parameter file
Global file