Africa Energy

Outlook 2019
Overview:
Kenya
English version

World Energy Outlook Special Report

Africa Energy
Outlook 2019
Overview:
Kenya
English version

www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2019

World Energy Outlook Special Report

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
AGENCY
The IEA examines IEA member IEA association
the full spectrum countries: countries:
of energy issues
including oil, gas Australia Brazil
and coal supply and Austria China
demand, renewable Belgium India
energy technologies, Canada Indonesia
electricity markets, Czech Republic Morocco
energy efficiency, Denmark Singapore
access to energy, Estonia South Africa
demand side Finland Thailand
management and France
much more. Through Germany
its work, the IEA Greece
advocates policies Hungary
that will enhance Ireland
the reliability, Italy
affordability and Japan
sustainability of Korea
energy in its 30 Luxembourg
member countries, Mexico
8 association Netherlands
countries and New Zealand
beyond. Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States

The European
Commission also
participates in the
work of the IEA

Please note that this

publication is subject to
specific restrictions that limit
its use and distribution. The
terms and conditions are
available online at
www.iea.org/t&c/

Source: IEA. All rights

reserved.
International Energy Agency
Website: www.iea.org
 Executive Summary

How Africa meets the energy needs of a young, fast growing and increasingly urban
population is crucial for the continent’s – and the world’s – economic and energy future.
One-in-two people added to the global population between today and 2040 is set to be
African, and by 2025, Africa’s population exceeds that of both India and China. The
continent’s urban population is set to grow by more than half a billion over that period,
much higher than the growth seen in China’s urban population during the country’s two-
decade economic and energy boom. These profound demographic changes are set to drive
economic growth, infrastructure development and, in turn, energy demand.
Five years since its first special report on Africa, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has
updated and upgraded its work in this new World Energy Outlook Special Focus. This
reflects not only Africa’s increasing importance in global energy affairs but also the
deepening relationships between African energy decision makers and the IEA. This report,
the most comprehensive to date, contains a unique richness of data and analysis. The
centrepiece is a set of detailed, comprehensive outlooks covering 11 sub-Saharan
countries1 that were developed in consultation with our African partners.
Thanks to natural resource endowments and technology improvements, Africa could
pursue a much less carbon-intensive development model than many other parts of the
world have. The challenges and opportunities differ widely across a diverse continent. But
renewables, together with natural gas in many areas, are poised to lead Africa’s energy
consumption growth as the continent moves away from the traditional use of biomass that
currently accounts for almost half of final energy consumption.
Africa’s energy prospects depend on the way that government policies shape investment
flows and the availability and affordability of modern energy sources. Our analysis is
based on two scenarios:
 The Stated Policies Scenario reflects our measured assessment of today’s policy
frameworks and plans, taking into account the regulatory, institutional, infrastructure
and financial circumstances that shape the prospects for their implementation.
 The Africa Case is built on the premise of Agenda 20632, the continent’s inclusive and
sustainable vision for accelerated economic and industrial development. Faster
economic expansion is accompanied by the full achievement of key Sustainable
Development Goals by 2030. These include full access to electricity and clean cooking
and a significant reduction in premature deaths related to pollution.
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1
These are: Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania.
2
Agenda 2063 was adopted in 2015 by the Heads of State and Governments of the African Union; it is the
continent’s strategic framework that aims to deliver inclusive and sustainable development.

Executive Summary
 Africa drives global trends, but a lack of access persists
Whichever pathway Africa follows, the continent becomes increasingly influential in
shaping global energy trends. Growing urban populations mean rapid growth in energy
demand for industrial production, cooling and mobility. Energy demand in Africa grows
twice as fast as the global average, and Africa’s vast renewables resources and falling
technology costs drive double-digit growth in deployment of utility-scale and distributed
solar photovoltaics (PV), and other renewables, across the continent. With the growing
appetite for modern and efficient energy sources, Africa emerges as a major force in global
oil and gas markets. As the size of the car fleet more than doubles (the bulk of which have
low fuel efficiency) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is increasingly used for clean cooking,
oil demand grows by 3.1 million barrels per day between today and 2040, higher than the
projected growth in China and second only to that of India. Africa’s growing weight is also
felt in natural gas markets and the continent becomes the third-largest source of global gas
demand growth over the same period.
A critical task for policy makers is to address the persistent lack of access to electricity
and clean cooking – and the unreliability of electricity supply. These have acted as brakes
on the continent’s development. Nearly half of Africans (600 million people) did not have
access to electricity in 2018, while around 80% of sub-Saharan African companies suffered
frequent electricity disruptions leading to economic losses. In addition, more than 70% of
the population, around 900 million people, lack access to clean cooking. The resulting
household air pollution from traditional uses of biomass is causing 500 000 premature
deaths a year. It also contributes to forest depletion resulting from unsustainable
harvesting of fuelwood, as well as imposing a considerable burden and loss of productive
time, mostly on women.
The momentum behind today’s policy and investment plans is not yet enough to meet
the energy needs of Africa’s population in full. In the Stated Policies Scenario, 530 million
people still lack access to electricity and nearly one billion have no access to clean cooking
in 2030. The continent’s ambition to accelerate an industrial expansion continues to be
hampered in many countries by unreliable energy supply. Only a handful of countries –
including South Africa, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda and Senegal – are successful in
reaching full access to electricity by 2030. Solid biomass remains a mainstay of the energy
mix as a primary fuel for cooking as clean cooking policies lag population growth and
premature deaths related to inhaling fumes from cooking end up only 2% below today’s
level by 2040.

The Africa Case points the way to a brighter future

The Africa Case outlines a way to lift these constraints, starting with the achievement of
full access to modern energy by 2030. In the case of electricity, this would require tripling
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the average number of people gaining access per year from around 20 million today to over
60 million people. Grid expansion and densification is the least cost option for nearly 45%
of the currently deprived, mini-grids for 30% and stand-alone systems for around a quarter.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 | Special Report

 LPG is used by more than half of those gaining access to clean cooking in urban areas across
sub-Saharan Africa, while in the rural areas, home to the majority of those without access,
improved cookstoves are by far the preferred solution. Electrification, biogas, ethanol and
other solutions also play important roles.
A focus on energy efficiency can support economic growth while curbing the increase in
energy demand. In the Africa Case, although the size of the continent’s economy in 2040 is
four times larger than today, efficiency improvements help limit the rise in total primary
energy demand to just 50%. As a result, even though economic growth in the Africa Case is
significantly stronger than in the Stated Policies Scenario, energy use is actually lower. This
is linked to an accelerated move away from solid biomass as a fuel and the increased
efficiency of charcoal production and use – and to the wide application of electrification
and energy efficiency policies. These include fuel economy standards for cars and
two/three-wheelers, more efficient industrial processes, building codes and efficiency
standards for appliances and cooling systems.

Renewables push ahead to power Africa’s brighter future

Rising electricity needs, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, require a major expansion of the
power system. Electricity demand today in Africa is 700 terawatt-hours (TWh), with the
North African economies and South Africa accounting for over 70% of the total. Yet it is
the other sub-Saharan African countries that see the fastest growth to 2040. Electricity
demand more than doubles in the Stated Policies Scenario to over 1 600 TWh, and
reaches 2 300 TWh in the Africa Case as electricity supports an increasing range of
residential, service and industrial uses. Most of the additional electricity demand
stems from productive uses and middle- and higher-income households.
Renewables account for three-quarters of new generation, with a key question being
how fast solar will grow. Africa has the richest solar resources in the world, but has
installed only 5 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV, less than 1% of the global installed capacity. In
the Africa Case, solar PV overtakes hydropower and natural gas to become the largest
electricity source in Africa in terms of installed capacity (and the second largest in terms of
generation output). With additions across the entire region, solar PV deployment between
today and 2040 averages almost 15 GW a year, matching the average annual deployment in
the United States over the same period. Wind also expands rapidly in several countries that
benefit from high quality wind resources, most notably Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal and South
Africa while Kenya is also at the forefront of geothermal deployment.
The development and reliability of Africa’s electricity sector will be shaped by progress in
improving power infrastructure, within and across borders. Supporting a tripling of the
electricity demand as envisaged in the Africa Case requires building a more reliable power
system and greater focus on transmission and distribution assets. A key priority is targeted
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investment and maintenance to reduce power outages, a major obstacle to enterprise, and
to decrease losses from 16% to a level approaching advanced economies (less than 10%
today). In addition, some large power-sector projects – especially for hydropower – require

Executive Summary
 regional integration to go ahead: they would not proceed if assessed only on domestic
needs. That means building up the regulation and capacity to support Africa’s power pools
and strengthen regional electricity markets.
Africa needs a significant scale-up in electricity sector investment in generation and grids,
for which it currently ranks among the lowest in the world. Despite being home to 17% of
the world’s population, Africa currently accounts for just 4% of global power supply
investment. Achieving reliable electricity supply for all would require an almost fourfold
increase, to around $120 billion a year through 2040. Around half of that amount would be
needed for networks. Mobilising this level of investment is a significant undertaking, but
can be done if policy and regulatory measures are put in place to improve the financial and
operational efficiency of utilities and to facilitate a more effective use of public funds to
catalyse private capital. Developing the technical and regulatory capacity to support sector
reform policies, as well as Africa’s own financial sector, is also critical to ensure a sustained
flow of long-term financing to energy projects.

Natural gas can be a good fit for Africa’s industrial growth

Natural gas is facing a potential turning point in Africa. In North Africa, gas already meets
around half of the region’s energy needs, but in sub-Saharan Africa, it has thus far been a
niche fuel. The share of gas in the energy mix is around 5%, among the lowest in the world.
The future could be different. There have been a series of major discoveries in recent years,
in East Africa (Mozambique and Tanzania), Egypt, West Africa (Senegal and Mauritania) and
South Africa, which collectively accounted for over 40% of global gas discoveries between
2011 and 2018. These developments could fit well with Africa’s push for industrial growth
and its need for reliable electricity supply.
Developing gas infrastructure will be a major challenge because of typically small market
sizes and concerns about affordability. Nonetheless, the rapid deployment of renewables
leaves room for gas to grow as a flexible and dispatchable source of electricity. Outside the
power sector, the successful industrialisation foreseen in the Africa Case rests upon the
stable provision of energy, including for energy uses that are hard to electrify. Gas could be
well suited to these roles and, if it is not available, the alternatives in many cases would be
other, more polluting fossil fuels. Much will depend on the price at which gas becomes
available, the development of distribution networks (including small-scale liquefied natural
gas (LNG) distribution), the financing available for infrastructure and the strength of policy
efforts to displace polluting fuels.
In our projections, Africa becomes a major player in natural gas markets as a producer,
consumer and exporter. Gas production more than doubles to 2040 in the Stated Policies
Scenario. It rises further in the Africa Case, to support higher demand from power and
industry. The share of gas in Africa’s energy mix rises to around 24% in 2040 in the Africa
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Case (close to the global average today). However, the growth in production is considerably
higher than the rise in demand, and Africa – led by Mozambique and Egypt – emerges as a
major supplier of LNG to global markets.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 | Special Report

 Energy transitions bring mixed implications for Africa
Development models in Africa that are highly dependent on hydrocarbon revenues are
coming under increasing pressure. Africa has abundant natural resources and the
associated revenues could be an important motor for development. However, changing
global energy dynamics mean that resource-holders cannot assume that their oil resources
will translate into reliable future revenues. This year’s outlook incorporates higher shale oil
production in the United States, which is providing very strong competition for lighter
African crudes. Accelerated energy transitions would result in lower demand and prices for
hydrocarbons and cut sharply into future revenues. Our analysis underscores the need for
strategic thinking on future investments, transparent resource revenue management and
efforts to reform and diversify economies.
Energy transitions are opening up new opportunities for a different set of strategic
resources. Africa is home to many of the mineral resources that are critical in driving global
energy transitions. The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for two-thirds of global
cobalt production and South Africa produces 70% of the world’s platinum. Rising demand
for the minerals that can support global energy transitions offers an opportunity for
minerals-rich countries in Africa, but responsible stewardship of these resources is vital.
These supply chains are coming under increasing scrutiny, and adequate oversight will be
needed to ensure that revenues produce visible positive results for local communities and
that negative impacts on the environment are minimised.

Climate change matters in Africa, making resilient policy decisions critical

Africa has been a minor contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, and this remains
the case to 2040 in all our scenarios. To date, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂)
emissions in Africa represented around 2% of cumulative global emissions. Although Africa
experiences rapid economic growth, its contribution to global energy-related CO₂ emissions
increases to just 4.3% over the period from today to 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario. In
the Africa Case, the continent’s share of cumulative global emissions rises further by just
0.2 percentage points to 2040 despite an economy that grows even more quickly. Looking
beyond CO₂, the transition away from the inefficient combustion of biomass for cooking in
the Africa Case leads to same levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as in the Stated
Policies Scenario as the increase in CO₂ emissions is offset by reductions in other GHGs
(methane and nitrous oxide).
But Africa is in the front line when it comes to the effects of a changing climate on the
energy sector. Today, Africa has some of the lowest ownership levels of cooling devices of
any region, despite almost 700 million people living in areas where the average daily
temperature exceeds 25 degrees. By 2040, this number approaches 1.2 billion as
population expands and average temperatures increase with climate change. Without
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appropriate regulations on the type of equipment used for cooling, this would create a very
strong increase in electricity demand. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events such as droughts and floods is set to lead to more variability in generation

Executive Summary
 output, notably hydropower. In Zambia, for example, a severe drought in 2015 led to a
drop in output at the largest hydropower plant, resulting in power blackouts. Uncertainty
over the impact of climate change on the region’s hydrology underlines the need to build
up a diverse power mix and enhance regional connections. Planning and investment
decisions for energy infrastructure need to be climate resilient. Outside the energy sector,
Africa’s ecosystems already suffer disproportionately from climate change and are exposed
to increased risks to food, health and economic security.

Policies will play a crucial role in determining Africa’s energy future

Africa’s energy future is not preordained: many pathways are possible, but effective
policy choices can guide the continent to a more inclusive and sustainable energy future
and accelerate its economic and industrial development. The choices that lead in this
direction vary, reflecting the different resource endowments and starting points across a
very diverse African energy landscape. Some have full access to modern energy services
within their grasp, while others have much further to go, or are struggling with instability or
a legacy of conflict. But there are reasons for optimism, both from the dynamism of Africa’s
energy sector and from the technologies that offer a cost-effective way to meet rising
demand in a sustainable way. Whether and how African countries take advantage of these
opportunities will depend in large part on the way that energy policies evolve. With the
right institutional and policy foundations, a well-functioning energy sector can be the
cornerstone of economic development and make a huge difference in the lives of Africa’s
people.
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Africa Energy Outlook 2019 | Special Report

 Regional and country energy profiles
The Africa Energy Outlook 2019 presents the results of the Stated Policies Scenario and
Africa Case for the sub-Saharan region as a whole as well as for eleven focus countries.

The whole report, all its results, as well as the data underlying each figure, are
available online for free. In this leaflet, we present the regional profile for sub-
Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) and the country profile of Kenya.

11 focus countries for the Africa Energy Outlook by share of sub-Saharan African
primary energy demand
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This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of
international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

Regional and country energy profiles

 Regional energy profile: Sub-Saharan Africa1
Fastest growing population Strong economic growth Major commodities exporter

Table 6.1A ⊳ Sub-Saharan Africa key indicators and policy initiatives

Stated Policies Africa Case CAAGR 2018-40
2000 2018 2030 2040 2030 2040 STEPS AC
GDP ($2018 billion, PPP) 1 375 3 536 6 161 10 346 8 381 16 683 5.0% 7.3%
Population (million) 626 1 034 1 404 1 761 1 404 1 761 2.5% 2.5%
with electricity access 20% 43% 62% 66% 100% 100% 2.0% 4.0%
with access to clean cooking 6% 13% 31% 51% 100% 100% 6.3% 9.6%
CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) 130 312 534 843 762 1 154 4.6% 6.1%

Policy Key targets and measures

Regional  Agenda 2063: A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable
Strategies development.
 African Continental Free Trade Area: accelerating intra-African trade and boosting
Africa’s trading position in the global market by strengthening Africa’s common voice
and policy space in global trade negotiations.

 Drastic efficiency improvements, in part due to the accelerated move away from solid
biomass, result in primary energy demand being lower in the AC than in the STEPS
even though GDP is 60% higher in the AC.
 Supply from natural gas and renewable sources expand in both scenarios to meet
rising demand for energy as the sub-Saharan economy expands.
 Electricity access and clean cooking facilities for all are achieved by 2030 in the AC.

Figure 6.1A ⊳ Sub-Saharan Africa primary energy demand and GDP

Stated Policies Africa Case

1 000 20 Bioenergy
Trillion dollars (2018)
Mtoe

Other low-carbon
800 16 Solar PV
Hydro
600 12 Gas
Oil
400 8 Coal
GDP (right axis)
200 4
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2010 2018 2030 2040 2010 2018 2030 2040

1
Excluding South Africa.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 | Special Report

 Figure 6.1B ⊳ Sub-Saharan Africa electricity generation by technology

Stated Policies Africa Case

2 000
TWh

1 500

1 000

500

2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040

Coal Oil Back-up generators Gas Hydro Wind Solar PV Bioenergy Other renewables

 Today’s power mix, dominated by hydro, gradually diversifies as solar PV and natural
gas increasingly make inroads into the power system. In the STEPS, the combined
share of solar PV and natural gas reaches the level of hydro by 2040.
 In the AC, natural gas (27%) passes hydropower (26%) as the largest source of power
supply by 2040 while the share of solar PV rises to 24%.

Figure 6.1C ⊳ Sub-Saharan Africa electricity access solutions by type in the

Africa Case

New connections by 2030

On-grid
Mini-grids
Stand-alone systems

Transmission lines (>69 kV)

Existing
Planned

 In the STEPS, the main grid connects around 70% of the 230 million people gaining
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electricity access by 2030, alongside decentralised options for the remainder in more
remote areas. In 2030, 530 million people remain without access.
 In the AC, decentralised solutions are the least-cost option for more than two-thirds of
the 530 million additional people connected by 2030 to reach full access.

Regional and country energy profiles

 Figure 6.1D ⊳ Sub-Saharan Africa final energy consumption

Fossil fuels Electricity

400 Final consumption
Mtoe

Productive uses
300
Transport

200 Residential

Demand changes
100
Higher GDP
and access
Efficiency gains
2018 2040 2040 2018 2040 2040
STEPS AC STEPS AC

 Growing trends of urbanisation and industrialisation drive strong energy consumption

growth for transport and productive uses in both the STEPS and the AC, increasing oil
demand the most, especially in the AC, which sees faster economic growth.
 Electricity consumption is very low today, but quadruples through to 2040 in the
STEPS, with demand growth led by light industry, appliances and cooling systems.
Demand rises further in the AC.

Figure 6.1E ⊳ Sub-Saharan Africa fuels & technologies used for cooking

2018 Stated Policies 2030 Africa Case 2030

1 034 million people 1 404 million people 1 404 million people

5% 9%
8% 17% 14%
5% 26%
15% 37%

8%
4%
50%
65% 37%

Charcoal Other solid biomass Coal and kerosene Improved cookstoves LPG Other clean

 In the STEPS, more people gain access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by
2030, but 70% of the population still lack access.
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 To bridge the gap and achieve full access to clean cooking for all in the AC, liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG) is the most scalable solution for urban settlements, with
improved biomass cookstoves doing most to provide access in rural areas.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 | Special Report

 Figure 6.1F ⊳ Sub-Saharan Africa fossil fuel demand and production

Coal (Mtce) Oil (mb/d) Gas (bcm)

75 6 300

50 4 200

25 2 100

2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040

Demand Production Stated Policies Africa Case

 Rapidly growing oil demand and stagnating domestic oil production reduce net oil
exports in the STEPS; exports are further reduced by faster economic growth in the AC.
 Gas demand and production increase by 2040 in the STEPS, but both grow more
rapidly in the AC and the region becomes a major supplier of gas to global markets.

Figure 6.1G ⊳ Sub-Saharan Africa cumulative investment needs, 2019-2040

Billion dollars (2018)

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500

Stated Policies
Africa Case
Fuel production Oil Gas
Power Fossil fuels Renewables Networks
Access to electricity to clean cooking

 In the STEPS, $1.8 trillion of cumulative energy supply investment is needed, with
upstream oil and gas and power each accounting for around half of this.
 The AC requires 80% more capital with a stronger emphasis on power sector
investments, including a doubling of spending in renewables and electricity networks.

Sub-Saharan Africa policy opportunities

 Enhanced power sector integration in sub-Saharan Africa could help to deliver more
affordable and reliable power and reduce average electricity generation costs.
 Challenges relating to infrastructure, affordability and business models must be
overcome if the region is to capitalise on the potential of natural gas.
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 More efficient use of energy across end-use sectors such as fuel economy standards
for cars and two/three-wheelers, building codes for new buildings, and more efficient
industrial processes and efficiency standards for appliances and cooling systems would
support wider economic development and offset growth in energy demand.

Regional and country energy profiles

 Kenya
Major access improvements Large wind power producer Largest geothermal producer

Table 6.7A ⊳ Kenya key indicators and policy initiatives

Stated Policies Africa Case CAAGR 2018-40
2000 2018 2030 2040 2030 2040 STEPS AC
GDP ($2018 billion, PPP) 76 177 358 627 453 1 176 5.9% 9.0%
Population (million) 31 51 66 79 66 79 2.0% 2.0%
with electricity access 8% 75% 100% 100% 100% 100% 1.3% 1.3%
with access to clean cooking 3% 15% 46% 70% 100% 100% 7.2% 9.0%
CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) 8 16 27 40 33 60 4.3% 6.2%

Policy Key targets and measures

Performance  National Electrification Strategy: achieve universal electricity service to all households
targets and businesses by 2022 at acceptable quality of service levels.
 Produce 100 000 barrels of oil per day from 2022 and develop 2 275 MW of geothermal
capacity by 2030.
Industrial  Increase the contribution of the manufacturing sector share of GDP to 15% by 2022.
development  Develop domestic iron and steel industries by 2030.
targets
 Achieve middle-income status by 2030.

 In the AC, Kenya could supply an economy six-and half times larger than today using
little more than twice its current energy consumption, if it were to move away from
bioenergy and improve energy efficiency.
 Two-thirds of Kenya’s energy currently comes from bioenergy. This share shrinks to
15% by 2040 in the AC thanks to increased use of geothermal resources and oil.

Figure 6.7A ⊳ Kenya primary energy demand and GDP

Stated Policies Africa Case

75 1.5 Bioenergy
Mtoe

Trillion dollars (2018)

Other low-carbon
Solar PV
50 1.0 Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
25 0.5 GDP (right axis)
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2010 2018 2030 2040 2010 2018 2030 2040

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 | Special Report

 Figure 6.7B ⊳ Kenya electricity generation by technology

Stated Policies Africa Case

90
TWh

60

30

2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040

Coal Oil Back-up generators Gas Hydro Wind Solar PV Bioenergy Geothermal

 Kenya is one of the few countries to develop geothermal energy: by 2040, it accounts
for almost 50% of Kenya’s power generation in the STEPS.
 The sevenfold increase in electricity demand in the AC relies on expansion of
geothermal production (an increase to 4 GW) and new solar PV and gas capacity.

Figure 6.7C ⊳ Kenya electricity access solutions by type in the Africa Case

New connections by 2030

On-grid
Mini-grids
Stand-alone systems

Transmission lines (>69 kV)

Existing
Planned

Kenya has seen one of the fastest increases in electrification rates within sub-Saharan
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
Africa since 2013: by 2018, 75% of the population had access.
 Kenya aims to reach full access by 2022; the grid would be the principal least-cost
solution for the majority of the population (mainly in the south) still lacking access.

Regional and country energy profiles

 Figure 6.7D ⊳ Kenya final energy consumption

Fossil fuels Electricity

20 Final consumption
Mtoe

Productive uses
15 Transport

Residential
10

Demand changes
5
Higher GDP
and access
Efficiency gains
2018 2040 2040 2018 2040 2040
STEPS AC STEPS AC

 Oil remains by far the dominant fuel in end-use sectors, and its use triples in road
transport in the AC, with five million additional vehicles being added to the fleet.
 Electricity demand reaches nearly 70 TWh in the AC, as light industry grows and as
ownership of household appliances and cooling systems increases; efficiency standards
avoid a further 8 TWh of demand.

Figure 6.7E ⊳ Kenya fuels and technologies used for cooking

2018 Stated Policies 2030 Africa Case 2030

51 million people 66 million people 66 million people

2% 6% 9% 13%
9% 19%
17%
12%

23% 58%
25% 40%

66%
1%

Charcoal Other solid biomass Coal and kerosene Improved cookstoves LPG Other clean

 Today three-stone fires are still used for most cooking, fuelled mostly by charcoal in
urban areas and by wood in rural areas. In the STEPS, government initiatives lead to
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26% of the population having access to clean cooking by 2030.

 In the AC, everybody gains access to clean cooking by 2030. Most of the 25 million
people otherwise without access in rural areas gain access primarily through improved
and advanced cookstoves; LPG is the least-cost fuel for most of the urban population.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 | Special Report

 Figure 6.7F ⊳ Kenya fossil fuel demand and production

Coal (Mtce) Oil (mb/d) Gas (bcm)

12 0.3 6

8 0.2 4

4 0.1 2

2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040

Demand Production Stated Policies Africa Case

 Kenya is not a notable oil and gas producer today, but it takes some steps to develop
its relatively modest resources.
 Higher economic growth underpins strong growth in fossil fuel demand in the AC. Oil
demand almost triples as it expands its share of the overall energy mix.

Figure 6.7G ⊳ Kenya cumulative investment needs, 2019-2040

Billion dollars (2018)

20 40 60 80 100 120

Stated Policies
Africa Case
Fuel production Oil Gas
Power Fossil fuels Renewables Networks
Access to electricity to clean cooking

 Energy investment amounts to around $60 billion through to 2040 in the STEPS, with
renewables and electricity networks accounting for half of this.
 Investments in renewables and electricity networks need to double in the AC.

Kenya policy opportunities

 Kenya is on the cusp of reaching universal access to electricity. Concerted government
policy could help reach this aim through grid and stand-alone connections in roughly
equal measure.
 Kenya has made notable progress in deploying renewables in large part because it has
successfully attracted the necessary private investment for renewables projects.
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Further development of these resources would help it meet demand growth.

Regional and country energy profiles

Africa Energy Outlook 2019
World Energy Outlook Special Report

This publication reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat but does not necessarily reflect
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