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    pert and cpm (1)mmmm

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    pert and cpm (1)mmmm

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    of 9

    PERT & CPM

    Introduction to PERT and CPM


    ➢ PERT- (Programme Evaluation and Review Technique) Charles E. Clark developed PERT for the US Navy in
    1958. It was developed for military research and development (R&D) where time pressures were high and
    cost was secondary. Used for the 1968 Winter Olympics in Grenoble.
    ➢ CPM- (Critical Path Method): CPM was developed for the construction and maintenance industry. Kelley Jr.
    of Remington conceived CPM as a project modeling technique during the same time around 1958.
    ❑ Application: These two techniques are widely used in production planning and scheduling of large projects.
    ❑ Importance: A project is a combination of various activities. These techniques drastically reduce the project
    completion time.
    ❑ In PERT & CPM, milestones are represented as Events to break down large projects into actionable steps.
    ❑ Events or Node is either starting of an activity or ending of an activity
    ❑ Activity consumes resources, e.g., time, money and materials
    ❑ Event will not consume any resources, but it simply represents either starting or ending of an activity
    ❑ Network: When all activities and events in a project are connected logically and sequentially
    Dr. Rishi Kumar, Chanakya Post Doctoral Fellow 2
    Network Diagram: Points to be remembered
    ❑ There must be only one beginning and one end for the network
    ❑ Event should be written inside the circle or square or rectangle, etc.
    ❑ Activity name should be written in capital alphabet and above the arrow
    ❑ The time required for the activity should be written bellow the arrow
    ❑ While drawing the network, activities should not cross each other.
    ❑ While drawing the network, looping should be avoided. The network should move in one direction
    ❑ Dummy Activity: When two activities start at the same event and end at the same event, they should be shown
    by means of a dummy activity. It should be shown by a dotted line. It is an activity which simply shows the
    logical relationship and does not consume resources.

    Dr. Rishi Kumar, Chanakya Post Doctoral Fellow 3


    PERT and Time Estimates
    ❑ PERT activities are probabilistic in nature as the time required to complete the PERT activity cannot be
    specified correctly. This is due to uncertainties in carrying out the activity. E.g., Building a house

    Three Time Estimates in PERT

    1. Optimistic Time (To): The estimator thinks that everything goes on well and he will not come across any sort of
    uncertainties and estimates the lowest time as far as possible
    2. Pessimistic Time (Tp): The estimator thinks that everything goes wrong and expects all sorts of uncertainties
    and estimates highest possible time
    3. Most Likely Time (Tm): This time is between optimistic and pessimistic. The estimator expects, he may come
    across some sort of uncertainties and many a time the things will go right.

    Dr. Rishi Kumar, Chanakya Post Doctoral Fellow 4


    Equations used in PERT
    ❑ Expected Time (Te):

    ➢ This formula gives a weighted average, with the most likely time (tm) having the highest weight.

    ❑ Standard Deviation (σ):

    ➢ The standard deviation measures the uncertainty or spread of the activity duration

    ❑ Variance (σ²):

    ➢ The variance is the square of the standard deviation and reflects the degree of variability in the
    activity duration.

    ❑ Range:
    The range is simply the difference between the pessimistic and optimistic times, representing the overall
    spread of possible outcomes.
    Dr. Rishi Kumar, Chanakya Post Doctoral Fellow 5
    Difference between PERT and CPM
    PERT CPM

    Network is constructed on the basis of Network is constructed on the basis of jobs


    events (Event oriented) or activities (Activity oriented)

    PERT network deals with uncertainties CPM does not take uncertainties
    and hence three-time estimates are involved in the estimation of times. The
    considered. time required is deterministic and hence
    only one time is considered.

    Dr. Rishi Kumar, Chanakya Post Doctoral Fellow 6


    Problem 1
    A project consists of activities and the three-time estimates are given below. Calculate estimated time, range,
    standard deviation, Variance. Find the critical path and total project completion time.

    i j To Tm Tp
    10 20 5 12 17
    10 30 8 10 13
    10 40 9 11 12
    20 30 5 8 9
    20 50 9 11 13
    40 60 14 18 22
    30 70 21 25 30
    60 70 8 13 17
    50 80 14 17 21
    70 80 6 9 12

    Dr. Rishi Kumar, Chanakya Post Doctoral Fellow 7


    Problem 1 (Contd..)
    A project consists of activities and the three-time estimates are given below. Find the project completion time.

    i j To Tm Tp Te Range S.D Variance

    10 20 5 12 17 10 12 2 4
    10 30 8 10 13 10 5 0.83 0.69
    10 40 9 11 12 11 3 0.50 0.25
    20 30 5 8 9 8 4 0.66 0.44
    20 50 9 11 13 11 4 0.66 0.44
    40 60 14 18 22 18 8 1.33 1.78
    30 70 21 25 30 25 9 1.5 2.25
    60 70 8 13 17 13 9 1.5 2.25
    50 80 14 17 21 17 7 1.16 1.36
    70 80 6 9 12 9 6 1.0 1.0

    Dr. Rishi Kumar, Chanakya Post Doctoral Fellow 8


    Problem 1(Contd…)
    A project consists of activities and the three-time estimates are given below. Find the project completion time.

    i j To Tm Tp Te Range S.D Variance


    ❑ Critical Path is 10-20-30-70-
    10 20 5 12 17 10 12 2 4 80
    10 30 8 10 13 10 5 0.83 0.69 ❑ Project Completion time is 52
    10 40 9 11 12 11 3 0.50 0.25 days

    20 30 5 8 9 8 4 0.66 0.44 The significance of critical


    20 50 9 11 13 11 4 0.66 0.44 path is that delay in
    40 60 14 18 22 18 8 1.33 1.78 completion of critical
    activities will increase the
    30 70 21 25 30 25 9 1.5 2.25 project completion time
    60 70 8 13 17 13 9 1.5 2.25
    50 80 14 17 21 17 7 1.16 1.36
    70 80 6 9 12 9 6 1.0 1.0

    Dr. Rishi Kumar, Chanakya Post Doctoral Fellow 9

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