DECISION MAKING

DURING A CRISIS:
A PRACTICAL GUIDE
 © Commonwealth of Australia 2018
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2 DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE

FOREWORD

Effective decision making is a positive element

of organisational resilience. In a crisis,
decisions have the potential to impact the
organisation involved and the broader
community.
An organisational crisis is a significant and unexpected
disruptive event that threatens to harm the organisation
or its stakeholders and can threaten an organisation’s goals,
performance and even the viability of the organisation.
Modern society is reliant on the effective functioning
of critical infrastructure to provide public services,
maintain a quality of life and encourage economic growth.
Critical infrastructure owners and operators need to build
the capability of their executives to perform well in a crisis
to ensure their organisation maintains a continuity of
supply under all plausible circumstances.
Decision making during a crisis: a practical guide (2018)
complements the Good Business Guide (2016) and
assists stakeholders to better understand and apply the
principles of decision making during a crisis.
Resilience Expert Advisory Group (REAG)

DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE 3

 INTRODUCTION
Decision making during a crisis: a practical guide (2018)
provides a self-audit tool which allows an organisation to reflect
on their decision making capability under crisis conditions.
Underpinning this self-audit tool are six characteristics of decision
making which organisations should implement in a crisis (see Figure 1
for an overview of the six characteristics). Enhancing decision making
capabilities in a crisis will contribute to strengthening organisational
resilience.

BACKGROUND
The Australian Government’s Critical Infrastructure Resilience
Strategy seeks to ensure continued operation of critical infrastructure
in the face of all hazards. The Resilience Expert Advisory Group (REAG)
supports the Strategy through its resilience work with industry. This
work includes developing practical user-friendly tools and guidance
material to assist businesses to enhance resilience within their
organisation and across sectors.
Decision making during a crisis: a practical guide (2018)
builds on the organisational resilience decision making
indicators in the Good Business Guide (2016).

HOW THIS GUIDE IS STRUCTURED

This guide identifies six characteristics of decision making for
organisations to apply during a crisis (see Figure 1). Applying these six
characteristics in an organisation can enhance the rigour of the decision
making process in crisis conditions. These six characteristics should be
repeated iteratively as required.

4 DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE

This guide will provide an explanation of each characteristic, how it
can be applied to an organisation and practical examples to assist with
implementation by crisis management teams. The examples provided
in quotation marks are from a series of crisis management exercises
conducted with various Australian organisations, including critical
infrastructure owners and operators, as part of a research project with
the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.
A simple self-audit tool is included to enable organisations to quickly
evaluate their decision making capabilities under crisis conditions.

Figure 1. Characteristics of the decision making process in crisis conditions

Confirm
authority
and
direction

tacit knowledge

Manage
expectations

DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE 5

 CONFIRM AUTHORITY AND
DIRECTION
In a crisis, changing circumstances may prompt a change
in management style from consultative to a ‘command and
control’ approach.
Due to the uncertainty, complexity and dynamic nature of a crisis that
usually occurs in the initial phase, there will be a requirement for
someone to lead decision making.
This individual typically assumes the role of crisis leader and will
exercise conferred authority on behalf of an organisation and provide
direction to the crisis management team.
In providing direction, crisis leaders need to find a balance between
the rigidity often found in command and control structures and the
use of decentralised consultative decision making processes which
is important in effective crisis management.
Consultative management is where managers consult other team
members before arriving at a decision. Command and control is often
hierarchical with clearly defined decision making structures and
responsibilities.
Command and control management style is often favoured in a crisis
and requires decisions to be made quickly. Inevitably, this relies on
strong leadership and a clear understanding of actual and potential
issues that impact the organisation.
The crisis management team will need a process to refer decisions
beyond their authority to the Chief Executive Officer and/or Board.

6 DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE

SUGGESTIONS TO CONSIDER
• Establish and train multiple crisis leaders in case the primary crisis
leader is unavailable to assume the role.
• If the Chief Executive Officer is not a member of the crisis
management team, consider the thresholds for decisions that are
beyond the authority of the crisis management team.
• Ensure all members in the crisis management team are aware of any
thresholds for decision making beyond their authority and that
thresholds are documented.
• During the prevention and preparedness phase, consider if the crisis
management structure is appropriate for the particular type of crisis
or if it requires modification.

“This is no longer a question of command

and control, when you talk about [losing]
a $100 million asset, all bets are off and
the decision defaults to the CEO.”

DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE 7

 ESTABLISH PSYCHOLOGICAL SAFETY
Members of the crisis management team need to have
a ‘safe environment’ where they can voice any concerns.
This psychologically safe environment can support team
members to influence change and allows the crisis
management team to take appropriate interpersonal risk.
Members of the crisis management team should feel they can speak
up even when this may potentially contradict specific expertise within
the team.
Creating a psychologically safe environment does not mean there
has to be consensus among the crisis management team to arrive on
quality decisions.
Absolute consensus in a team can lead to groupthink. This irrational
and dysfunctional outcome occurs when decisions are made due to
the unified nature of decision makers.
It happens when decision makers strive for unanimous agreement,
and this overrides their motivation to consider alternative views or raise
controversial issues.

8 DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE

SUGGESTIONS TO CONSIDER
• It is everybody’s responsibility to make it clear there will be areas
in the decision making process during the crisis that still require
explanation.
• Input from each member of the crisis management team matters
and will be considered.
• Offer simple statements to encourage all members of the crisis
management team to speak up and voice any concerns, raise
alternatives and make suggestions.
• Actively model curiosity by asking and encouraging many questions
as this creates a necessity for the crisis management team to discuss
any concerns and generate options.
• Train staff in the knowledge and skills needed to build, maintain and
retrieve psychological safety.

Encouragement
“We need to minimise the reputational impact
of the crisis on the organisation, so to do this
I want all of your cards on the table, in this
situation there is no such thing as a stupid
question or a stupid solution.”

DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE 9

 USING EXPLICIT AND TACIT
KNOWLEDGE
Crisis management teams can use explicit and tacit knowledge.
Explicit knowledge is knowledge that can be easily identified,
accessed and shared. Tacit or implicit knowledge involves
learning and skill, but not in a way that can be written down.
It is embedded in the human mind through experience,
including insights and intuition.
Crisis management teams use explicit and tacit knowledge to create
mental models.

Mental models use memory and intuition to support decision

making. Mental models help to build an understanding of the
current situation and enable the crisis management team to
better anticipate how a crisis will progress.

The crisis management team can use their expertise to identify

indicators and recognise patterns that allow them to choose a course
of action that they consider will achieve the best outcome.
Accomplished crisis management teams develop and consider multiple
options. This involves understanding, and interpreting what the situation
means to the organisation and includes the ongoing development of
plausible options to address the immediate situation and implications
for the future.

10 DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE

SUGGESTIONS TO CONSIDER
• Where possible, the crisis management team should look to
verify the authenticity of all critical intelligence used to inform
their decisions.
• To manage the potential emergence of bias, experts need to make
the tacit more explicit by identifying the similarities and differences
between the current situation and stored experiences.
• To ensure the crisis management team remain updated, use a
schedule of meetings to verify new intelligence.
• Integrate this intelligence into an assessment of the changing
probability of the success of current and potential options based
on what the organisation currently knows, what this could mean
and what the strategies are to address this.

“We need to think about what may happen

and how any consequences may play out
in the short, medium and long term, and
then look at the possible effectiveness of
our existing decision options.”

DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE 11

 MANAGING EXPECTATIONS
Expectation management is important, as positive and negative
expectations influence attitudes. When expectations are unmet
or misunderstood, this may lead to disappointment, frustration
and occasionally anger and hostility.
In crisis management, stakeholders tend to demand action very quickly
and by doing so create an ‘obligation to act’ by the organisation.
Internal expectations include upholding the organisation’s values,
complying with internal governance structures, and recognising the
board and shareholders position.
External expectations can involve assumptions made by the public, the
media and other organisations currently involved in or impacted by a
crisis. It can also include partners who are pivotal to existing and future
joint ventures outside this crisis.
Techniques are available for managing expectations, including good
interpersonal skills and various methods of communication. It is
important to have a well prepared communications strategy and
dedicated team responsible for managing communication to customers,
staff and stakeholders.

12 DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE

SUGGESTIONS TO CONSIDER
• Consider the potential interaction between underlying values of the
organisation and the tensions associated with the crisis.
• Do not underestimate the use of ‘regular’ dialogue to help determine
stakeholder expectations. Through such communication the
organisation can learn what expectations stakeholders have about
the organisation and can inform stakeholders how they are ‘meeting’
those expectations, or if not, why.
• Consider if the crisis management team has social capital. This is
the trust, knowledge, reciprocity and shared norms required for
social connectedness and plays a critical role in making individuals
and organisations more resilient.

“We need to have one designated person from

the crisis management team who is providing
strategic representation for the business and
managing the expectations of our external
stakeholders. They need to be the conduit so
we are not sending out mixed messages to our
stakeholders, we need to ensure that we are
trusted during this entire event.”

DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE 13

 MANAGING BIAS
Cognitive bias refers to a systematic error caused by
simplified information processing strategies employed by
our subconscious mind.
These biases are an ever-present ingredient of all decision making
which may be amplified under dynamic, complex and uncertain
conditions.
Three common types of cognitive bias that feature in decision making
in a crisis are:
Anchoring bias - the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or
‘anchor’, on one trait or piece of information then adjust to that value to
account for other elements of the circumstance when making decisions.
Often the anchoring occurs early in the decision making process with
the first viable intelligence you receive.
Confirmation bias - the tendency to process information by looking
for, or interpreting, information that is consistent with one’s existing
beliefs. This biased approach to decision making is largely
unintentional and often results in ignoring inconsistent information.
Overconfidence bias - when someone believes subjectively his or
her judgement is better or more reliable than it objectively is. This
bias is the tendency people have to be more confident in their own
abilities.

14 DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE

SUGGESTIONS TO CONSIDER
• Often the most important step in managing bias is simply to build
into the decision making process a mechanism to reflect on the bias.
For example, crisis management teams can consider if they have
based their final judgment on information gained early on in the
decision making process.
• Reflect if the team has objectively considered all other possibilities.
• Consider ways to challenge what the team think they see and seek
out information from a range of sources.
• Actively listen to dissenting views and consider looking for people
and information that challenge opinions.
• Consider nominating someone on the crisis management team to
play ‘devil’s advocate’ when formulating decisions.
• Consider if the crisis management team has placed too much faith
in their own knowledge and opinions.

Brainstorming
“It wasn’t clear if there was an opportunity
to challenge bias as we never really stepped
back collectively to brainstorm and throw our
prejudices out of the room.”

DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE 15

 RECORDING DECISIONS
Decisions made by crisis management teams potentially affect
the whole organisation, stakeholders and the impacted
community. Crisis driven decisions must be accurately
documented.
It is common for an organisation’s executives to have to publicly defend
their decisions made during a crisis so it is important to record and
provide justification for decisions throughout the crisis.
The use of designated information technology platforms can also assist
in making the recording and retrieval of decisions more visible.
Visualisation of the crisis management team’s decision making process
can act as a frame of reference for others managing the crisis and is a
check point for cognitive biases.
Visualising decisions and decision options can also augment the team’s
memory to provide a larger working set for thinking and analysis. It also
allows the crisis management team to share their progress to
newcomers.

16 DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE

SUGGESTIONS TO CONSIDER
• Ensure internal documentation and databases are maintained to
continuously demonstrate how each decision was made.
• Where appropriate, share the decision making process to internal
and external stakeholders.
• Remember that recording decisions is crucial in recollecting the
decision making process and assists in defending decisions made
during the crisis in a public enquiry if need.
• Consider how the organisation will actually display decisions made
and decision making options for future eventualities.
• When recording decisions consider the identification of information
or events that might change that decision in the future, and the
recording of alternative options. Make the information that the
decision is based on explicit in the recording tool.

“I want all the different options displayed on a

whiteboard so everyone can see all the various
scenarios. Someone also needs to take a photo
of the board now and every time we change
something on it as I don’t want us to lose any
of this information”.

DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE 17

 SELF-AUDIT TOOL
The aim of this self-audit tool is to provide a quick evaluation
of an organisation’s decision making capabilities under crisis
conditions.
Using the self-audit tool will allow organisations to identify strengths in
their decision making process. An audit by executive members outside
of the crisis management team can add fresh ideas and feedback not
seen by those close to the team.
The self-audit tool can also be used to identify areas for improvement.
Users of the guide are encouraged to explore concepts introduced in
this guide and specifically adopt the recommendations in the
‘suggestions to consider’ sections.

No. Question Yes No

1a Is it clear in the crisis management plan(s) who has the
delegated authority to make decisions?
1b Is their span of decision making capability defined?
2a Do crisis leaders have the skills to build, maintain and
retrieve psychological safety with their teams?
2b Do they have adequate support mechanisms to ensure
it is maintained?
3 Is the crisis management team regularly creating mental
models to develop options of how the crisis will progress?
4 Is the crisis management team actively spanning intra
and inter-organisational boundaries to establish and meet
stakeholder expectations?
5a Is the crisis management team actively adopting
mechanisms to manage bias?
5b Has anyone adopted the role of ‘devil’s advocate’ to
monitor for signs of bias?
6a Is the crisis management team regularly recording their
decision options?
6b Are they regularly documenting what factors could modify
future decisions?

18 DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE

ABOUT US
The Resilience Expert Advisory Group (REAG)
comprises representatives from Australian, state
and territory governments, critical infrastructure
owners and operators, academia and research
organisations. The REAG’s mission is to promote the
concept of sector and organisational resilience
within the business community generally, and critical
infrastructure owners and operators in particular.
The REAG forms part of the Australian Government’s
Trusted Information Sharing Network (TISN). The TISN is the
Australian Government’s primary engagement mechanism for
business government information sharing and resilience building
initiatives on critical infrastructure. The TISN connects representatives
from industry and government to ensure the ongoing operation of
critical infrastructure in the face of all hazards.
By sharing information on current and medium-to-long-term threats
and vulnerabilities, industry and government can collaborate on
appropriate measures to mitigate risk and enhance the resilience
of Australia’s critical infrastructure.

DECISION MAKING DURING A CRISIS A PRACTICAL GUIDE 19

www.cisc.gov.au/how-we-support-
industry/organisational-resilience

[email protected]