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    Exponential Forecasting (Unit 9 and Module 5)

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    ishal fatima
    excel notes

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    Exponential Forecasting (Unit 9 and Module 5)

    Uploaded by

    ishal fatima
    1 views6 pages
    excel notes

    Original Title

    Exponential Forecasting (Unit 9 and Module 5) (15)

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    excel notes

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    1 views6 pages

    Exponential Forecasting (Unit 9 and Module 5)

    Uploaded by

    ishal fatima
    excel notes

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 6

    Weight Analysis of Fore

    alpha 0.2 MAD


    6594.31535

    Data
    Period
    Exponential absolute value
    Date Number data forecast error of error
    1 130,188 130188.00000 0.00000 0.00000
    2 155,625 130188.00000 25437.00000 25437.00000
    3 137,836 135275.40000 2560.60000 2560.60000
    4 146,600 135787.52000 10812.48000 10812.48000
    5 147,230 137950.01600 9279.98400 9279.98400
    6 137,310 139806.01280 -2496.01280 2496.01280
    137,935
    7 139306.81024 -1371.81024 1371.81024
    8 145,416 139032.44819 6383.55181 6383.55181
    146,089
    9 140309.15855 5779.84145 5779.84145
    143,287
    10 141465.12684 1821.87316 1821.87316
    11 141829.50147
    12
    13

    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    Month-Year Gas Price
    19-Nov $2.69
    19-Dec $2.65
    20-Jan $2.64
    20-Feb $2.53
    20-Mar $2.33
    20-Apr $1.94
    20-May $1.96
    20-Jun $2.17
    20-Jul $2.27
    20-Aug $2.27

    Month Truck Crossings


    February 130,188
    March 155,625
    April 137,836
    May 146,600
    June 147,230
    July 137,310
    August 137,935
    September 145,416
    October 146,089
    November 143,287
    Analysis of Forecast Error
    MSE MAPE
    94221293.40146 4.61943%

    absolute 2020 Number


    percentage Month of Tickets
    squared error error
    0.00000 0.00% March 1527
    647040969.00000 16.35% April 1652
    6556672.36000 1.86% May 1918
    116909723.75040 7.38% June 1854
    86118103.04026 6.30% July 1775
    6230079.89776 1.82% August 1999
    Septembe
    1530
    1881863.33457 0.99% r
    40749733.68542 4.39% October 1616
    Novembe
    1672
    33406567.14552 3.96% r

    December 1629
    3319221.80063 1.27%

    Number
    Year
    of Guests
    2015 1137
    2016 2245
    2017 1430
    2018 1167
    2019 2251
    2020 2774
    2021 2221
    Weight
    alpha 0.4
    beta 0.2

    Data

    Period
    Exponential Adjusted
    Date Number data forecast forecast
    1 1165 1055.00000 1165.00000
    2 1257 1165.00000 1275.00000
    3 1824 1267.80000 1376.36000
    4 2231 1555.41600 1699.78720
    5 2370 1912.27232 2099.14054
    6 1192 2207.48433 2416.02131
    7 1926.41278 2037.02806
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    Analysis of Forecast Error
    MAD MSE
    484.49933 337843.20454

    Adjusted
    forecast
    Trend - insert
    initial trend absolute value of
    into cell G7 error error squared error
    110.00000 110.00000 110.00000 12100.00000
    110.00000 92.00000 92.00000 8464.00000
    108.56000 556.20000 556.20000 309358.44000
    144.37120 675.58400 675.58400 456413.74106
    186.86822 457.72768 457.72768 209514.62904
    208.53698 -1015.48433 1015.48433 1031208.41716
    110.61528
    recast Error
    MAPE
    28.95703%

    absolute percentage
    error
    9.44%
    7.32%
    30.49%
    30.28%
    19.31%
    85.19%

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