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    Regression Problem Set

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    Regression Problem Set

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    Regression Problem Set

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    krishnaarun1999

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Simple Linear Regression

    It is believed that caste plays an important role in Indian elections. Data is collected from 2019
    elections from 37 parliamentary constituencies of Tamil Nadu for the political party called
    A2ZMK (A-to-Z Munnetra Kazhagam) and number of people belonging A to Z (A2Z) caste in
    each of the 37 constituencies. Note that, depending on the candidate, they also get large number
    of votes from people belonging to other castes. Data description is provided in Table 1.1 and
    descriptive statistics are shown in Table 1.2.

    Table 1.1. Data Description


    Variable Name Description
    NVP Votes polled for A2ZMK in a constituency
    A2Z Number of voters belonging to A2Z caste
    in a constituency
    ln(NVP) = ln(NVP)
    ln(A2Z) = ln(A2Z)

    Table 1.2. Descriptive Statistics


    N Mean Std. Deviation
    A2Z 37 17536.000 11303.7003
    NVP 37 94623.35 6924.458
    LNA2Z 37 9.5855 .6298
    LNNVP 37 11.4550 .0733
    Valid N (listwise) 37

    A simple linear regression model was developed between the variable NVP as dependent variable
    and A2Z as independent variable. The regression outputs are shown in Tables 1.3 and 1.4.

    Table 1.3 Model Summaryb


    Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of
    Square the Estimate
    1 4722.744
    a. Predictors: (Constant), A2Z
    b. Dependent Variable: NVP

    Table 1.4 Coefficientsa


    Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.
    Coefficients
    B Std. Error Beta
    (Constant) 86673.0292 1447.0391 59.897 .000
    1
    A2Z .070 .740 6.511
    a. Dependent Variable: NVP
    (a) Is there a statistically significant relationship between votes polled (NVP) for A2ZMK and
    the number of voters belonging to A2Z caste in the constituency at a 1% significance level?

    (b) A constituency has 50000 voters belonging the A2Z caste. Predict the votes polled for
    A2ZMK in this constituency.

    (c) What proportion of the variation in votes polled for A2ZMK is explained by the number
    of people belonging the A2Z caste?

    (d) The President of the A2ZMK party believes that at least 40% of the people belonging to
    the A2Z caste vote for them. Check whether the President’s claim is true at a 10%
    significance level. Clearly write all the steps.

    The normal P-P plot and residual plots are shown in Figures 1.1 and 1.2.

    Figure 1.1 Normal P-P Plot Figure 1.2 Residual plot

    (e) Based on the P-P plot (Figure 1.1) and Residual Plot (Figure 1.2), comment on the validity
    of model shown in Tables 1.3 and 1.4. Clearly identify any potential problem with the
    model.
    A second model is developed between ln(NVP) and ln(A2Z). The model outputs are provided in
    Tables 1.5 and 1.6 and Figures 1.3 and 1.4.

    Table 1.5 Model Summaryb


    Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of
    Square the Estimate
    1 .754a .0488
    a. Predictors: (Constant), LNA2Z
    b. Dependent Variable: LNNVP

    Table 1.6. Coefficientsa


    Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.
    Coefficients
    B Std. Error Beta
    (Constant) 10.614 .124 85.500 .000
    1
    LNA2Z .088 .013
    a. Dependent Variable: LNNVP

    (f) Coimbatore has 50,000 voters belonging A2Z caste, what is the number of the votes polled
    for A2ZMK in Coimbatore using Model 2?

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