At

Alpha
Ideas 2020
Indostar Capital
CMP: 260 | MCap: 3500 Cr
Analyst Danesh Mistry - Investor First Advisor

From FY15 to FY24 - shifted from promoter loan,

special situation to now SME loan, More granular
loan
More Focussed on Retail - 95% portfolio
NIM 6.5% broadly range bound
Sale of HFC Subsidiary - Still regulatory approval
needed, possible by Jun-25
This will give them risk capital
650 Cr Networth - getting 1700 Cr money (2.8x P/B)
Focus on Vehicle Loan : Scrapping Vehicle & BS Vi
drive the growth
60% Source of Fund: Bank, increasing further
Low leverage 2x, HFC Sales- Big trigger, 60%
customer are more than 700 CIBIL Score, no
unsecured lending
Disbursement start improving
Hawkins India
CMP: 8450 | MCap: 4470 Cr
Prajesh Maroo- MoneyCurves Analytics

Hawkins india - Google trends shows higher demand

in google trends compared to other player
Higher margin, sustainable growth, brand conscious,
Quality Leader
Higher RoCE, even after cash in Balance Sheet
Ready for Capex, spending more.
No interaction with promoter, only AGM people can
meet and discuss
Competitors facing internal headwinds.
Valuations are a bit stretched but things are good vs
other competitors.
Cantabil Retail
CMP: 217 | MCap: 1800 Cr
Anshul Saigal -Saigal Capital Advisor

15L Garment Capacity + Outsource Capacity

560 Brand Stores, adding 80 Stores PA
Full Family Store: One stop shop
Perception: Corporate Governance about company -
Changed GT as Stat Auditor and Deloitte as Internal
Auditor
In Retail Category- Apparel & Apparel Exports
(fastest growing category) will grow 18% in upcoming
3 years
Organised will grow at 35% in upcoming 3 years
Focusing on Fast Fashion
Risk- Same store sales growth negative in last 5 out
of 6 Qtrs
Q2FY25: Not that good
JM Financial
CMP: 129 | MCap: 12300 Crs
Jatin khemani -Stalwart Advisor
Earlier issues - Wholesale lending, ARC.
Discount to book value
May-24 : No more money in wholesale and ARC
business.
Current Inv Bank: 700Cr annual PAT
Profit can be double in 4-5 years in IBanking
Capital Market is on Golden decade
Asset Light Model - can easily get 20/25x PE
Triggers
RBI Ban lifted
Shifting from lending to Fee Income via AIF, no pain
to BS
Focus on Affordable housing
2000Cr loan book, 2x in 3 years
Wealth Book- 1L Crs, from Top10 to now focus on
Top3
AMC - 12500Crs, PMS - 2500 Cr
Aiming for 25000Cr in 3 years
HIL Limited
CMP: 2462 | MCap: 1857 Cr
Jiten Parmar -Aurum Capital

1/3rd business coming from roofing business

1/3rd Parador: Acquired in 2018 and then market
collapsed, Market share improved, loss making
Polymer solution: aiming 30% growth
Top line acquisition.
Planning to get back to 10% EBITDA Margin from 2-
4%
Things to watch out and potential of Re-Rating
Pipe and fitting grow to 1500 Cr
1 Bn usd rev in 3-4 years
Roofing and Building Solution Business Cycle turns
Parador turning profitable
Greaves Cotton
CMP: 162 | MCap: 3700 Cr
Jiten Parmar -Aurum Capital

Pivoting from 3w diesel engine company to Greaves

Finance, Greaves Electric Mobility, Greaves Tech,
Retail, Engineering - A Complete Ecosystem
Must Read Annual Report
Acquired companies and changed them completely
Transitioning to B2B2C Player
Thesis is turning around into Ecosystem.
Why this is an unloved stock?
Legacy of 160 Years
Leadership in 3W segment
6x in next 6 years
One of best EV, One of the highest RoCE
Highly experienced, most recognised brand
Least owned by institutions
EBITDA gone to 3% due to losses in electric
Greaves Cotton
CMP: 162 | MCap: 3700 Cr
Jiten Parmar -Aurum Capital

All acquisitions are top class and balance sheet is ok,

not much risk
Product diversification, sector diversification,
geographical diversification, business model pivot,
Tech
Export increased from 53 Cr to 182 Cr, can go in
1000Cr
Focus on operation
Management Changes
Bold Vision, Value addition
15000Cr Revenue target by 2030
EBITDA of electric mobility may turnaround
2x the ebitda of base business and stable ebitda of
electric business
Sunteck Realty
CMP: 493 | MCap: 7223 Cr
Rushmik Oza-9 Rays Equiresearch
Acquired 50 Mn Sq Ft
2009 to 2014 - Asset Heavy Model
Shifted to Asset light - Higher Margin
Now moving to super luxury segment
Realization per sq ft improved by 55% - EBITDA
margins improved
New GDV come from south Mumbai
Dubai - Near Burj Khalifa Project launching 2026
3-4 years inventory will get exhausted
Commercial side - Capital Value 5000Cr
Goregaon, just behind Nesco
250 Cr avg rental in Goregaon ODC -100% own
construction
12x EBITDA, Revenue 4x, EBITDA CAGR 60+%
Valued to 3250 Cr
Pre sales 30-35% for 3 year
SoTP Valuation
FY28 Target Price- 1200
KRN Heat Exchanger
CMP: 652 | MCap: 4052 Cr
Abhisar Jain-Monarch AIF

Heat Exchanger - difficult to crack product in

commercial HVAC segment
Strong & Durable Growth
342 Cr Fresh issue
Finned Tube Heat Exchanger [21% Market in India in
Whole Market]
KNR part of this HVAC business growing at 15%
CAGR in India
High Demand - Industrial, Mfg, Capex revival, Data
Centre Demand, Demand from Railway etc
Very Tech and engineering product
KNR first mover advantage
Customised - Top MNCs demand - If failed then 5-10
years business gone- So unique Moat
Promoter - Santosh Yadav, ex-lloyd, First Gen
Entrepreneur
Do work with marquee clients
KRN Heat Exchanger
CMP: 652 | MCap: 4052 Cr
Abhisar Jain-Monarch AIF

More than 100 Customer

Daikin 33% Market share
Capex 350Cr 6x of existing facility
Rev potential of 400 Crs
Entering into new products - locomotive,
referigerator side, focus on exports.
Demand in exports - huge , but unable to deliver due
to capacity constraint
Asset turn 5-6x
New Capacity Target of 2000Cr revenue
Risk - Key man, delay in ramp up of new plant,
quality issues, demand slowdown in HVAC, Margin
risk
Shankara Building Products
CMP: 609 | MCap: 1478 Cr
Agrawal Brothers- Fluid AI

90 stores in South
Steel Tubes & Pipe - 60%
Steel Flats -29%
7 year transition from commodity business to more
value added.
Focus on non-steel - Ceramic, PVC
10% business growing at 30> CAGR
6% EBITDA vs 3% ebitda of steel business
Private label ceramic side
Modular kitchen focus, brand , quartz sink
Decreased store, avg ticket size increasing and
change in product mix
Focusing on Geographical expansion - Currently 86%
in south
Product mix change
Digital Retail in home product
Demerger of Marketplace and mfg business
Sai Silks Kalamandir
CMP: 157 | MCap: 2415 Cr
Ashwini Agrawal-Demeter Advisor

Largest apparel of South India

4 Formats - Kalamandir-17%, Mandir,
varahmahalakshmi-47%, kLM Mall-33%
Tech First Approach
Promoter - Ex-SAP, Ex-FIS
Premiumisation Play
Expansion of varahmahalakshmi - 100k sq ft to 250k
sq ft., higher Rev, Higher EBITDA
Focus on store expansion, sourcing & Design
Tech led inventory Management
Welspun Corp
CMP: 680 | MCap: 17,800 Cr
Rakesh Loria -Oldpine Investors

DI Pipes - Oil & gas, Jal Jeevan

Sintex - Acquired
ABG shipyard building - 750 Cr price(recd back from
selling scrap)
2022- Huge Capex done
Bought companies at throwaway valuation
Sintex turnaround
US - oil and Gas grow by 50%, this company will get
benefit
Plant is fully booked for 2 years
10000Cr order from Saudi Aramco - 2 yr order
booked
Welspun TMT bar - 2x by FY27
Welspun speciality solution- double volume by FY27
More focus on Sintex
Huge distribution
Welspun Corp
CMP: 680 | MCap: 17,800 Cr
Ashwini Agrawal-Demeter Advisor

Focus shifting to more export and product mix will

also change
Sintex sales will 2x by FY27
Dependency on US will decrease
Present in almost all products compared to peers
Sintex - Joker in the Bag - 11% market share
Plan to increase this to 12-15% in 18 Months
Foraying into Plastic Pipes
Debt is at comfortable
Margins - Sustainable
Arvind Smartspaces
CMP: 870 | MCap: 3970 Cr
Ishmohit Arora - SOIC

Formed Business, Professional Management and

Demerger
Market share of listed players are growing
Inventory Months are lowest
Business -
Long term platform funding from 2019 HDFC Capital
200Cr net cash in Balance sheet
Joint Development and Joint ventures - Quick
turnaround, balance sheet is asset light
75Mn sq ft is upcoming
65% Ahemdabad, Gujarat
34% Banglore
1% Pune
Pre sales 1107 Cr in FY24, Collection 876Cr at 37%
CAGR
Net cash positive
Arvind Smartspaces
CMP: 870 | MCap: 3970 Cr
Ishmohit Arora - SOIC

Pre Sales 30-35% in FY25

Completed 6 Mn Sq ft
1000Cr Ahemdabad Aqua Project
RISK
SLOW DOWN in Real Estate
Natural Calamity
Macro Shock
India Shelter
CMP: 644 | MCap: 6914 Cr
Darshan Deora - Indvest Group

Affordable housing loan- 5 to 25L

100% secured portfolio
52% LTV
73% self employed 27% salaried
Chairman- Ex-Gruh Finance
CEO - Ex-Chola, entire team ex-Chola
AUM: 48% CAGR in 10 years
Pat : 68% CAGR
Planning IRR: 25% in 3 years
Massive operating leverage
Saregama India
CMP:488 | Mcap: 9427 Cr
Aashish Upganalwar -Invesco PMS

Users of paid music streaming subscription

increasing
India just 1% paid subscriber in population
High potential market 9x growth possible per user vs
ad based
50% revenue is coming from Youtube Views
2 Companies only - Tips and Saregama
Tips - 30k song
Saregama - 1.5L song, 70 Films, 6k TV Content, 45
Digital series
Aggresive on content acquisition
Current 20% market share, adding 30% incremental
share in the industry.
Revenue come from lag because of high investment
in coming content, bottom line is started declining.
FY26, PAT will start recovering, which is degrowing
as of now.
MOIL
CMP: 297 | MCap: 6038 Cr
Digant Haria-Greenedge Wealth

Manganese - additive into steel manufacturing.

Steel demand is huge, capex is huge - manganese is
automatic getting demand
3 states - orisa, Karnataka, MH
Once demand is up- import will further increase,
currently only serving 40% in India.
MOIL 53% market share in India.
Sandur 15% Tata Steel - Captive
2010 to 2024
Price of manganese- 6.5 a kg to 11 rs a kg
Domestic demand of India is superb
Price of manganese slightly went below 9 which is a
long term average
MOIL made 2-3 rs per kg.
2008-23 stagnant
2024-30% growth
2025 guidance 14% growth
MOIL
CMP: 297 | MCap: 6038 Cr
Digant Haria-Greenedge Wealth

Stated vision for FY30

12% CAGR - 35L Ton
Ministry of Steel calls them in each 15 days to
review.
Improved Tech, Manpower productivity
Production guidance from existing mines revised
from 20L to 25L
34% employee cost - reduction can further increase
the margins
Global average 18%
No of employee reducing and production is
increasing
Emd - used in lithium ion battery, currently only
player in India currently 15% market share
Rest imported with volume guidance, profit for FY-27
550-800Cr
Atlanta Limited
CMP:54 | MCap: 440 Cr
Ankit Kanoria- Smart Sync Services

Earlier used to do EPC business, optionalities for

arbitration Awards
2024 - ventured into real estate
Multiple filings on vivad se vishwas money coming
from different project
PROMOTER - 1% CLAIM COMMISION
Expecting higher claim compensation
Recently awarded 2 project -
Borivali(redevelopment)& Thane
Thane 5L sq ft 7000 rs sq ft rate - 350 Cr
Promoter shareholding increased to 75%
PWC Auditor resign, promoter verified that they
were ready to share
Cash 120 Cr
Land 70Cr
Existing Projects 400Crs Vs Current MCap 440 Cr
PG Electroplast
CMP 628 | MCap 16450 Cr
Vivek Mashrani - Techno Funda Research

Ac, Washing Mchines, LED, Cowrs

Machine Framework
M - Mega Trend
A - Price Action
C - Competitive Edge
H - High RoCE
I - Inv in Co
N - New Products
E - Execution
PG Electroplast
CMP 628 | MCap 16450 Cr
Vivek Mashrani - Techno Funda Research

Raised 500 Cr earlier with good names in QIP

Again raising 1500 Cr in QIP
2nd largest RAC- Focusing on Split AC
In 3 Years- 3-4x Capacity
Why PGEL
-Economy of Scale
-Cross selling
-70% Backward integration
-Ebitda margin - higher than peers
-Asset t/o RoCe increasing
JV with Jaina Group - 50-50
Access to Google ODM License
IT hardware PLU scheme - Cherry on cake
Walk the talk delivered higher growth in last 2 years
Now FY 25 guidance increased from 54% to 70% YOY
Anti Thesis
Competitive & Climate
Regulatory & Tech changes