MIDTERM EXAM

Course Title: Probability & Statistics for Business II

(BCOR250)
Lecturers: Amira Dridi, Riadh Aloui, Amor Messaoud

Grade /100 Name: ………………..……………………………………...…….. Last Name: …………………………………………………………

Student ID: …………………………….…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Group: ……….………………..………………....……………………………………...

Date: November 19th , 2022

Working time: 90 minutes

Number of pages: 8

Instructions
- Books and notes are not permitted
- Calculators are allowed
- It is not allowed to use mobile phones
- It is not allowed to share writing instruments

Circle the correct answer and write your answers in the Table in the last page

1. In a random sample of 1000 students, p = 0.80 (or 80%) were in favor of longer hours at the
school library. The standard error of p (the sample proportion) is

A. 0.013
B. 0.160
C. 0.640
D. 0.800
E. None of the above

2. Which of the following is NOT true about the standard error of a statistic?

A. The standard error measures, roughly, the average difference between the statistic and the
population parameter.
B. The standard error is the estimated standard deviation of the sampling distribution for the
statistic.
C. The standard error can never be a negative number.
D. The standard error increases as the sample size(s) increases

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3. A test to screen for a serious but curable disease is similar to hypothesis testing, with a null
hypothesis of no disease, and an alternative hypothesis of disease. If the null hypothesis is
rejected treatment will be given. Otherwise, it will not. Assuming the treatment does not have
serious side effects, in this scenario it is better to increase the probability of:

A. making a Type 1 error, providing treatment when it is not needed.

B. making a Type 1 error, not providing treatment when it is needed.
C. making a Type 2 error, providing treatment when it is not needed.
D. making a Type 2 error, not providing treatment when it is needed.

4. A radio advertiser wishes to choose a random sample of size 100 from a population of 5000
listeners. After observing that 5000 ÷ 50 = 100, he first selects a subject at random from the
first 50 names in the sampling frame, and then he selects every 50th subject listed after that one.
This method of random sampling is called:

A. Stratified random sampling.

B. Systematic random sampling.
C. Cluster random sampling.
D. Simple random sampling.

5. In a hypothesis testing about a population mean, the p value is found to be 0.04. Which of
the following is/are true about the population mean? Assume that the population mean given
the null hypothesis is μo. Circle all that apply.

A. The 95% confidence interval includes the μo

B. The 99% confidence interval includes the μo
C. The 90% confidence interval includes the μo
D. All of the above are true
E. None of the above is true.

6. A house cleaning service claims that it can clean a four-bedroom house in less than 2 hours.
A sample of n = 36 houses is taken and the sample mean is found to be 1.97 hours and the
sample standard deviation is found to be 0.1 hours. Using a 0.05 level of significance the correct
conclusion is:

A. Reject the null because the test statistic is < the critical value.
B. Do not reject the null because the test statistic is < the critical value.
C. Reject the null because the test statistic is > the critical value.
D. Do not reject the null because the test statistic is > the critical value.

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7. For which of the following hypotheses tests above would the p-value be the same whether
the sample mean is 44 or 46?

A. I.
B. I. and IV.
C. II. and III.
D. IV.

8. A certain brand of jelly beans are made so that each package contains about the same number
of beans. The filling procedure is not perfect, however. The packages are filled with an average
of 375 jelly beans, but the number going into each bag is normally distributed with a standard
deviation of 8. Yesterday, Jane went to the store and purchased four of these packages in
preparation for a Spring party. Jane was curious, and she counted the number of jelly beans in
these packages - her four bags contained an average of 382 jelly beans.
If you went to the store and purchased six bags of this brand of jelly beans, what is the
probability that the average number of jelly beans in your bags is less than 373?

A. 0.2709
B. 0.3085
C. 0.4013
D. 0.7291

9. Why can we use the Z table to compute the probability in the previous question?

A. because np >15 and n(1-p) > 15

B. because n is large in this problem
C. because the distribution of jelly beans is Normal
D. because the average is large

10. Suppose a p-value is 0.044. What will your conclusion be at alpha levels of 0.10, 0.05,
and 0.01?

A. We will reject Ho at alpha = 0.10, but not at alpha = 0.05

B. We will reject Ho at alpha = 0.10 or 0.05, but not at alpha = 0.01
C. We will reject Ho at alpha = 0.10, 0.05, or 0.01
D. We will not reject Ho at alpha = 0.10, 0.05, or 0.01

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11. The Gallup Poll has decided to increase the size of its random sample of Canadian voters
from about 1500 people to about 4000 people. The effect of this increase is to:

A. reduce the variability of the estimate.

B. reduce the bias of the estimate.
C. increase the standard error of the estimate.
D. increase the confidence interval width for the parameter.
E. have no effect because the population size is the same.

12. The Central Limit Theorem is important in Statistics because it allows us to use the
normal distribution to make inferences concerning the population mean:

A. provided that the population is normally distributed and the sample size is reasonably
large.
B. provided that the sample size is reasonably large (for any population).
C. provided that the population is normally distributed (for any sample size).
D. provided that the population is normally distributed and the population variance is
known (for any sample size).
E. provided that the population size is reasonably large (whether the population
distribution is known or not).

13. A 95 percent confidence interval for the mean time taken to process new insurance
policies is (11, 12) days. This interval can be interpreted to mean that:

A. only 5 percent of all policies take less than 11 or more than 12 days to process
B. only 5 percent of all policies take between 11 and 12 days to process
C. about 95 out of every 100 such intervals constructed from random samples of the same
size will contain the population mean processing time
D. the probability is 0.95 that all policies take between 11 and 12 days to process
E. none of the above

14. In a hypothesis test:

A. the null hypothesis is what we are trying to prove
B. the alternate hypothesis is always assumed to be true
C. the alternate hypothesis is accepted unless there is sufficient evidence to say otherwise
D. the null hypothesis is not rejected unless there is sufficient evidence to reject it.
E. None of the above

15. The problem with relying on a point estimate of a population parameter is that:

A. it is virtually certain to be wrong.

B. it doesn't have the capacity to reflect the effects of larger sample sizes.
C. it doesn't tell us how close or far the point estimate might be from the
parameter.
D. All of these choices are true.

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 16. To estimate the mean of a normal population whose standard deviation is 6, with a
bound on the error of estimation equal to 1.2 and confidence level 95% requires a sample
size of at least:

A. 97
B. 167
C. 13
D. None of these choices.

17. A random sample of size 15 taken from a normally distributed population revealed a
sample mean of 75 and a sample variance of 25. The upper limit of a 98% confidence
interval for the population mean would equal:

A. 63.37
B. 72.23
C. 88.85
D. 77.27
E. None of the above

18. For a two-sided confidence interval, an increase in the degree of confidence will result
in:
A. a wider confidence interval.
B. a narrower confidence interval.
C. no change in the width of the confidence interval.
19. For a sample size of 65 with a mean of 31 taken from a normally distributed population
with a variance of 529, a 99% confidence interval for the population mean will have a
lower limit closest to:

A. 23.64
B. 25.41
C. 30.09
D. None of the above

Scenario 1
A researcher in the field of educational psychology is interested in the effects an open classroom
has on intellectual development. In the open classroom things are much less structured than in
a traditional classroom and she believes that this might affect problem-solving skills. An
elementary school in her district switched to an open classroom format last year, and she is
interested to see how this has impacted on the kids problem-solving skills. She obtains a random
sample of 49 fourth grade children and administers a conceptual problem-solving test to them.
It is known that fourth graders in traditional classes have an average score of 82 on the test. The
children in this study score an average of 86 with a standard deviation of 5. (α=5%)
Questions 20 and 21 refer to scenario 1.

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20. The alternative hypothesis is
A. μ ≠ 82
B. μ > 82
C. μ = 82
D. μ < 82
21. The test critical value(s) is (are):
A. ±2.010
B. 2.010
C. ±1.677
D. 1.677

22. An automobile battery manufacturer claims that its midgrade battery has a mean life
of 50 months with a standard deviation of 66 months. Suppose the distribution of battery lives
of this particular brand is approximately normal. On the assumption that the manufacturer’s
claims are true, the probability that the mean of a random Sample of 36 will be less
than 48 months is

A. 0.0228
B. 0.9772
C. 0.1586
D. 0.0354
E. None of the above

23. The population mean (μ) is a random variable that will fall within a confidence interval
with 95% probability (with repeated sampling).

A. True
B. False

24. Using the finite population correction factor

A. reduces the mean of the sample

B. reduces only the standard error of the sample mean
C. reduces the standard error of both the sample mean and the sample proportion
D. None of the above

25. A random sample of 30 students were asked whether they prefer reading an e-book over a
printed book. The survey resulted in a sample proportion of P=0.14, with a sampling standard
deviation of σ=0.02, who preferred reading an e-book. A 95%confidence interval for the true
proportion of adults who prefer e-books is:
A. [0.132 , 0,144]
B. [0.124 , 0,147]
C. [0.132 , 0,147]
D. None of the above

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26. A survey of 200 students provides a sample mean of 7.10 hours worked and standard
deviation of the population is σ=2 The 95% confidence interval based on this sample is (6.82,
7.37). Which of these is a valid interpretation of this confidence interval?

A. There is a 95% probability that a randomly selected student worked between 6.82 and
7.38 hours.
B. There is a 95% probability that the true average number of hours worked by all
students is between 6.82 and 7.38 hours.
C. We are 95% confident that the average number of hours worked by students in our
sample is between 6.82 and 7.38 hours.
D. We are 95% confident that the true average number of hours worked by all students is
between 6.82 and 7.38 hours.
E. None of the above

Scenario 2
Researchers are interested in the mean age of a certain population. A random sample of 10
individuals drawn from the population of interest has a mean of 27. Assuming that the
population is approximately normally distributed with variance 20, can we conclude that the
mean is different from 30 years ? (α=0.05) .
Questions 27, 28 and 29 refer to scenario 2

27. The null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are

a. H0 : μ=30 versus H1: μ≠ 30
b. H0 : μ<30 versus H1: μ> 30
c. H0 : μ≤30 versus H1: μ> 30
d. H0 : μ=30 versus H1: μ< 30
e. None of the above

28. The statistical conclusion is

a. Reject H0 , we have enough evidence to state that the average mean age is significantly
different from 30 years.
b. Fail to Reject H0 , we don’t have enough evidence to state that the average mean age is
significantly less than 30 years.
c. Reject H0 , we have enough evidence to state that the average mean age is significantly
greater than 30 years.
d. None of the above

29. The p-value for the hypothesis test in scenario 2 is :

a. 0.340
b. 0.034
c. 0.017
d. 0.024
e. None of the above

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 Please write your answers in the following Table

Question Answer Mark

N°
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

Good Luck