MOSt Market Outlook 111124

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11th November, 2024

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Actionable Ideas for the Day

Technical Pick: (2-3 Days) Quant Picks:


Stock Names Close Price SL TP
Quant Intraday Sell Idea:
Indian Hotel : Buy 733 710 770
Stock Names Close Price SL (1%) TP (2%)

ASTRAZEN (Sell) 7,307 7,380 7,161

Fundamental Pick: (1 Year) AARTIIND (Sell) 474 479 465

SBI : Buy
(CMP : 841 TP: 1000) Quant Weekly Buy Idea:
Stock Names Close Price SL TP

Focused Ideas for the month NAVINFLUOR (Buy) 3,543 3,472 3,632
CUMMINSIND (Buy) 3,655 3,564 3,802
Stock Name TP Upside IGL (Buy) 442 434 456
HCL Tech 2300 25% ITI (Buy) 304 301 310
KOTAKBANK (Buy) 1,746 1,728 1,779
IPCA Lab 1950 25%
REC Ltd 630 22%
Voltas 2070 17%
Bank of Baroda 290 13%
Morning Market Outlook

• The market is expected to open on a weak note, driven by a combination of factors including a poor
performance in Asian markets, disappointing quarterly results, and ongoing selling by FIIs.

• Most Asian indices are down by up to 1% following China’s announcement of a lack luster stimulus
package aimed at supporting its economy.

• On the other hand, better-than-expected US consumer sentiment data and optimism around potential
tax cuts from the newly elected US government boosted the US market, which closed 0.6% higher,
hitting a record high.

• The GIFT Nifty is down by 0.4%. Asian Paints and Tata Motor announced weak Q2 results.

• Results Today - Britannia, ONGC, Hindalco, NMDC,Jubilant Foodworks, Ramco cements, BEML.
Nifty Technical Outlook
NIFTY (CMP : 24148) Nifty immediate support is at 24050 then 23900 zones while resistance at 24350
then 24500 zones. Now it has to hold above 24150 zones, for a bounce towards 24350 and 24500 zones
whereas supports are placed at 24050 then 23900 zones. (Capped upside).

Nifty Cash R1 R2 S1 S2
24,148 24350 24500 24050 23900
Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

BANK NIFTY (CMP : 51561) Bank Nifty support is at 51250 then 50850 zones while resistance at 52000
then 52222 zones. Now till it holds below 51750 zones some weakness could be seen towards 51250
then 50850 levels while on the upside hurdle is seen at 52000 then 52222 zones.

Bank Nifty Cash R1 R2 S1 S2


51561 52000 52222 51250 50850
Technical Trading Idea

Indian hotel : Buy CMP : 733 Target : 770 SL : 710 Duration : 2-3 Days
• Indian hotel is in strong uptrend and gave channel breakout on daily scale after thirty two sessions. It
also have highest daily close with good surge in volumes and trading above its short term moving
averages. The stock has been quite outperformer within Midcap space and likely to scale new record
high in coming sessions.
Derivative Outlook

• Nifty November future closed at 24,219.85 with a premium of 103.05 point v/s 71.65 point premium
in the last session.
• Nifty futures OI decreased by 0.87% to 1.30 Cr and Bank Nifty futures OI increased by 3.40% to 29.63
Lakhs.
• Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) increased from 0.90 to 0.91 level.
• Bank Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) decreased from 0.79 to 0.70 level.
• On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 24500 then 24200 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 24200
then 23500 strike. Call writing is seen at 24200 then 24600 strike while Put writing is seen at 24100
then 23900 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 23700 to 24500 zones
while an immediate range between 23850 to 24400 levels.

• Option Buying: Buy Weekly Nifty 24000 Put if it holds below 24150 zones. Buy Weekly Bank Nifty
51300 Put if it holds below 51750 zones. (Mix view)
• Option Strategy: Nifty weekly Bear Put Spread (Buy 24000 PE and Sell 23800 PE) at net premium cost
of 40-50 points. Bank Nifty Weekly Bear Put Ladder Spread (Buy 51500 PE, Sell 51000 PE and Sell
50700 PE) at net premium cost of 80-100 points.
• Option Writing: Sell Weekly Nifty 23350 PE and 24650 CE with strict double SL. Sell Weekly Bank
Nifty 50000 PE and 52900 CE with strict double SL due to higher volatility.
Fundamental Outlook
Global Market Summary:
• US markets rallied on Friday as investors cheered Donald Trump’s victory followed by a 25bps rate cut
by US Fed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.
• Dow Futures is trading 41 points higher.
• European indices ended in red down -0.8% to -1%.
• Majority of the Asian markets are trading Red
• Global Cues: Subdued
Indian Market Summary:
• Nifty opened traded in a range throughout the day to close with a loss of 51 points (-0.2%) at 24,148.
• FIIs: -Rs3404 crore DIIs: +Rs1748 crore.
• Currently GIFT Nifty is trading flat.
• Domestic Cues: Muted
News and Impact :
Solar Industries India: The company has received export orders worth Rs 580 crore for the supply of
defence products. These products will be delivered over a period of 5 years. Impact: Positive
Zaggle : The company has signed an agreement with Can Fin Homes to provide an expense management
platform and employee benefits (Zaggle Zoyer Petty Cash & Zaggle Save) for the branches and employees
of Can Fin Homes, respectively. Impact: Positive
Key results today
ONGC, Britannia, Hindalco, Bajaj Consumer Care, Balrampur Chini Mills, BEML, Campus Activewear,
Hindustan Copper, Jubilant FoodWorks, NMDC, Triveni Turbine, UPL, and Zydus Wellness.
Fundamental Actionable Idea
SBI: CMP INR841 TP INR1000 Upside 19% Buy
• SBI reported steady 2QFY25 with PAT growth of 28% YoY (12% beat), driven by a healthy NII and robust
treasury income.
• Loan book grew 15.3% YoY, while deposits growth was healthy at 9.1% YoY after a sluggish 1Q.
• The bank under the leadership of Mr. CS Setty has reaffirmed to maintain 14-15% loan growth while RoA to
conservatively remain at 1%
• SBI remains our preferred stock in the PSU banking space. We expect FY26 RoA/RoE of 1.1%/17.4%.
View: Buy

Divis Lab: CMP INR5950


• Divi’s Labs delivered better-than-expected 2QFY25 performance as growth momentum continued in The
custom synthesis (CS) segment for four quarters.
• Its revenues grew 22.5% YoY with the EBITDA margin expanding by 450bp YoY to 30.6% due to better
operating leverage. PAT grew 38.3% YoY for the quarter.
• DIVI is moving up the value chain in manufacturing the solid and liquid fragments for peptide products, which
would drive growth over the medium term.
• We expect 17%/22.6%/24.9% YoY growth in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25-27.
View: Buy
Quant Weekly Buy Ideas

What are the rules?.


1. Weekly Buy Ideas:
• Stock names will be given at market open (9:15 am)
• Recommended time to entry: between 9:15 to 9:30 am.
• Entry: We go long for a week (5 trading days)
• Exit: We Sell after a week of it’s recommendation
• SL: is placed at 2% of the entry price
• Book Profit: is placed at 4% of the entry price

Today’s Techno Quant Weekly Buy Ideas :


Reco Date Stock Names Close Price SL TP Expected Close Date Target Stop Loss
11-11-2024 NAVINFLUOR (Buy) 3,543 3,472 3,632 18-11-2024 3% 2%
11-11-2024 CUMMINSIND (Buy) 3,655 3,564 3,802 18-11-2024 4% 3%
11-11-2024 IGL (Buy) 442 434 456 18-11-2024 3% 2%
11-11-2024 ITI (Buy) 304 301 310 18-11-2024 2% 1%
11-11-2024 KOTAKBANK (Buy) 1,746 1,728 1,779 18-11-2024 2% 1%
Quant Intraday Sell Ideas

What is this? What are the rules?


Based on technical indicators this strategy gives 2 stocks that • Stock names will be given at market
have a high likelihood to fall during the day (from open to close). open (9:15 am)
This is an intraday Sell strategy which can provide a good • Recommended time to entry:
cushioning during a black swan event. between 9:15 to 9:30 am.
• Entry: We short 2 stocks daily
Today’s Sell Ideas: (intraday)
Stock Names Close Price SL (1%) TP (2%) • Exit: we will exit at 3:15 as this is an
intraday call
ASTRAZEN (Sell) 7,307 7,380 7,161
• SL: is placed at 1% of the open.
AARTIIND (Sell) 474 479 465 • Book profit: At 2% fall since open.
• In special situations the book profit
might be delayed if the stock is in free
fall.
Chandan Taparia, CMT, CFTe Neil Jha ,
Siddhartha Khemka Head - Derivatives & Technical Research Head - Quant Products
Head - Retail Research
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11th November, 2024

*Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
BSE BANKEX : 58857

BSE Bankex opened on a negative note and it drifted lower in the opening hour. It witnessed BANKEX Level
consolidative move in the last hour and then corrected further towards 58750 zone. It Spot Closing 58857
formed a bearish candle on the daily scale and continued the lower high - lower low
Weekly VWAP 59150
sequence. On the weekly scale it formed a Doji candle but it is trading in a broader range of
Weekly Change % -0.05
1500 points from past three weeks. Now till it holds below 59050 zones weakness could be
seen towards 58500 then 58300 levels while on the upside hurdle is seen at 59050 then Key Resistance 59250
59250 zones. Key Support 58300
Range 58300-59250
Expiry day point of view : Overall trend is likely to be volatile with negative bias and now till
it holds below 59050 zones weakness could be seen towards 58500 then 58300 levels while
on the upside hurdle is seen at 59050 then 59250 zones.

Trading Range : Expected wider trading range : 58300/58500 to 59050/59250 zones.

Option Strategy : Option traders can initiate Bear Put Ladder Spread (Buy 58900 PE, Sell
58600 PE and Sell 58300 PE) to play the downswing.

Option Writing : Option writers are suggested to Sell Bankex 58000 Put and Sell 59600 Call
with strict double SL.

Weekly Change : BSE Bankex is down by 0.05% on weekly basis at 58857. Weekly VWAP is
near 59150 zones and it is trading 300 points below to the same which suggests capped
upside for expiry day point of view.
NIFTY Midcap Select : 12520

Nifty Midcap Select Index opened on a positive note but bears quickly took control from the Nifty Midcap Level
first tick as selling pressure was seen from higher levels. Index slowly inched lower
Spot Closing 12520
throughout the day witnessing volatile swings in the second half of the session. Although
Weekly VWAP 12520
the index showed good recovery from lower levels last week, but sell on bounce stance
continued as it faced resistance near its 50 DEMA. It formed a bearish candle on daily chart Weekly Change % 1.79
and negated its higher highs sequence. It formed an evening star kind of pattern on daily Key Resistance 12700
chart which indicates further weakness. Now till it holds below 12600 zones, more Key Support 12300
weakness could be seen towards 12400 then 12300 zones whereas hurdles are placed at Range 12300 to 12700
12600 then 12700 zones.
OI
Expiry day point of view : Overall trend is likely to be negative and till it holds below 12600 Nifty Midcap Strike
(Contracts)
zones, more weakness could be seen towards 12400 then 12300 zones whereas hurdles are 13000 67456
placed at 12600 then 12700 zones. Max Call OI
12600 32486
12000 34625
Trading Range : Expected wider trading range : 12300/12400 to 12600/12700 zones. Max Put OI
12200 26955
Option Strategy : Option traders can initiate Bear Put Spread (Buy 12500 PE and Sell 12450
PE) to play the downside move.

Option Writing : Option writers are suggested to Sell Nifty Midcap select Weekly 12300 Put
and Sell 12675 Call with strict double SL.

Weekly Change : Nifty Midcap select is up by 1.79% on a weekly basis. It’s VWAP of the
week is near 12520 zones and index is trading near the same level which indicates mix view
for the expiry day point of view.
Chandan Taparia, CMT, CFTe Shivangi Sarda, CFA, FRM Arpit Beriwal, CMT
Derivatives & Technical Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL is registered with the Securities &
Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of
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Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx

MOFSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relatives may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOFSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst or their relatives may have actual beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the public appearance. MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst
and their relatives may have any other potential conflict of interests at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance, however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in
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The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement


Analyst ownership of the stock No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com. Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to subject company for which Research
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This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

For Singapore
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Disclaimer:
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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for
securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may
not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not
be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely
to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: [email protected], Contact No.:022-40548085.

Grievance Redressal Cell:


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Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI: ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.

Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to [email protected]. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to [email protected], for DP to [email protected].

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