LOW CARBON GREEN GROWTH ROADMAP FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

[Background Policy Paper]

The Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector:

Implications of the Agro‐Industry for Low Carbon, Green Growth Strategy
and Roadmap for the East Asian Region

Prepared by Dr. Chang‐Gil Kim

Korea Rural Economic Institute

This publication was prepared as a background policy paper for the East Asia Low Carbon Green
Growth Roadmap project with funding from the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA),
under the East Asia Climate Partnership.

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply
the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations
concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or its authorities, or concerning the
delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The content and views expressed in this publication are
those of the authors and not necessarily reflect the views or policies, or carry the endorsement of
any of the co‐publishing organizations. Reference to a commercial entity or product in this
publication does not imply endorsement. The co‐publishing organizations do not guarantee the
accuracy of the data included in this publication and accept no responsibility for any consequence of
their use.

This publication has been issued without formal editing.

 Table of Contents

1 Introduction 2
2 Diagnosis and Forecast of Global Climate Change 3
2.1. Current Conditions of Global Warming 3
2.2. Current Conditions and Forecasts of Global Climate Change 5
3 Impacts of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector 8
3.1. Conceptual Approach 8
3.2. Climate Change Impacts on Korean Agriculture 12
3.2.1. Impacts on the Agricultural Ecosystem 12
3.2.2. Impacts on the Agricultural Production 13
3.2.3. Impacts on the Agricultural Economy 14
3.3. Climate Change Impacts on Chinese Agriculture 17
3.4 Climate Change Impacts on Indian Agriculture 19
4 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for the Agriculture 21
4.1. Countermeasures against Climate Change 21
4.2. Strategies for Climate Change Mitigation 22
4.3. Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation 24
4.3.1. Basic Framework for Adaptation 24
4.3.2. Priorities of Adaptation Measures to Climate Change in Korean Agriculture 27
4.4. Countermeasures for Climate Change in China 31
5 Low carbon Green Growth Strategy/Roadmap for the Agricultural Sector 34
5.1. The Concept of Green Growth 34
5.2. Strategies for Green Growth in Agricultural Sector 37
5.2.1 Basic Directions and Implementation Methods 37
5.2.2 Implementation Methods 38
5.2.3 Core Tasks for Implementing Strategies 39
5.2.3.1. Establishment of a Resource‐cycling Agricultural System 39
5.2.3.2. Integration of Agricultural Policy and Low‐carbon Eco‐friendly Policy 39
5.2.3.3. Activation of Climate Smart Agriculture 40
5.2.3.4. Development and Dissemination of Low‐Carbon Green Technology 41
5.2.3.5. Development of Policy Programs Based on Carbon Information 43
5.2.3.6. Utilization of Green Finance in the Agricultural Sector 44
5.2.3.7. Education and Communication for Green Growth 44
6 Conclusions and Policy Implications/Options 45
7 References 48

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1. Introduction
Climate change refers to changes beyond the average atmospheric condition that are caused both by
natural factors such as the orbit of earth’s revolution, volcanic activities and crustal movements and
by artificial factors such as the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosol. Climate
change by global warming, which refers to the average increase in global temperature, has become a
megatrend that will lead to significant global changes in the future. Concerning its impacts, the UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented considerable scientific evidences in its
fourth report on climate change (2007) and they have become clearly recognized worldwide. In
addition, people have become more aware of the fact that global warming cannot be avoided due to
the continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the changes in the climate system. The Club
of Rome Report 1972 officially raised global warming as an international issue and, in 1985, World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) officially
declared carbon dioxide as the principal cause of global warming. In order to effectively cope with the
global warming issue, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was organized in 1988 and
has carried out systematic research and in-depth studies on climate change.
According to the fourth report of UN IPCC (2007) on climate change, it is indisputable that global
warming has serious impacts on the earth and it is very likely that the increase in greenhouse gas
emission by anthropogenic activities has caused global warming since the mid-20th century.
Especially, this report warns us that, if mankind continues its present level of consumption of fossil
fuels (e.g., oil and coal), the average temperature of the earth will rise by up to 6.4℃ by the end of
the 21st century (2001~2100) and the sea level will rise by 59㎝. In fact, the average temperature of
the earth has risen 0.74℃ over the past 100 years (1906~2005) (Korea Meteorological Agency, 2008).
Global warming not only causes a change in average temperature and precipitation but also
increases the frequency of floods, droughts, heat waves, and the intensity of typhoons and hurricanes
following the change in temperature and precipitation patterns. The impacts of climate change are also
shown in various other forms throughout the world, including the rise of sea level, decrease in glaciers,
northward movement of plant habitats, changes in animal habitats, rise of ocean temperature,
shortened winter and early arrival of spring.
As the acceleration of global warming affects not only ecological systems but also human life, it
has become an important issue both nationally and internationally. Approaches to deal with the issue
of global warming are divided largely into mitigation measures, focusing on reduction and absorption
of greenhouse gases, the causative factors, and adaptation measures to minimize the damages by
climate change. So far, the global warming issue has focused on the mitigation of greenhouse gases
based on international environmental conventions such as IPCC and Kyoto Protocol. For agriculture,

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however, the focus has been shifted to adaptation and adaptability based on the assessment of the
impacts of climate change and vulnerability to it. IPCC emphasizes that it is very important for the
agricultural sector to adapt to climate change. This is because even if greenhouse gas emissions
decrease, global warming will still continue for the next several decades due to its previously emitted
greenhouse gases.
It takes at least 5 to 10 years to assess the impacts of climate change and the vulnerability to
it and prepare proper countermeasures against it. Especially, as agriculture is climate-dependent and
thus susceptible to climate change, it is very urgent to prepare adaptation measures against climate
change. Proper countermeasures drawn based on scientific diagnosis and assessment of the impacts of
climate change on East Asian countries’ agriculture are essential in establishing the vision and
administrative policies of future agriculture. This will also provide valuable information for local
governments in establishing mid to long-term agricultural development plans and for farming
households to prepare their production plans.

2. Diagnosis and Forecast of Global Climate Change

2.1. Current Conditions of Global Warming
Climate refers to a long-term variation in the atmospheric condition of a specific region or regions,
and climate change means a gradual change in the climate system both by natural and artificial causes.
Climate change is caused by the change in each component of the climate system such as atmosphere,
hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and lithosphere or by complicated interactions among those
components. The causes of climate change are largely divided into natural causes and artificial causes.
Natural causes include the change in solar activity, volcanic eruption, sea water temperature, ice cap
distribution, westerly waves and atmospheric waves. On the other hand, artificial causes include
carbon dioxide emission from industry and agricultural production activities, deforestation, acid rain
and the destruction of the ozone layer by Freon gas, with global warming by the increase of
greenhouse gases as the representative (Presidential Advisory Council on Education, Science ＆
Technology: PACEST, 2007).
Global warming refers to the average increase of the Earth’s temperature due to the greenhouse
effect caused by carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydro fluorocarbon
(HFCs), perfluorocarbon (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). 1 Global warming, meaning a
continuous increase of the Earth’s temperature due to the greenhouse effect, started from the time of

1
Greenhouse effect refers to a phenomenon where the atmospheric elements, such as water vapor and carbon dioxide,
shield the solar energy that has reached the Earth, preventing it from radiating outside of the Earth’s atmosphere, re
sulting in a rise in the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere. This idea was first proposed by a Swedish ch

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the Industrial Revolution which was accompanied by a rapid increase of fossil fuel consumption. This
issue has attracted international interests as the scientific knowledge of climate has accumulated since
the 1970s and it has been widely accepted by scientists that the anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions are the cause of global warming.
The global greenhouse gas concentration based on carbon dioxide is estimated to have increased
from 280ppm before the Industrial Revolution (1750) to 379ppm in 2005. According to an analysis of
the average temperatures of the Earth (Climate Research Unit, 2009), the increase of the Earth’s
average temperature so far, since the Industrial Revolution, appears to be much higher than the
increase before the Industrial Revolution. Specifically, global warming has significantly accelerated
since 1980 and the average temperature of 1998 was shown to be 0.58℃ higher than the average
temperatures of 1960~1990. As shown in the Figure 1, 11 out of 12 hottest years since 1850 were
recorded to be in the last 12 years.

Figure 1. Temperature deviation from the average temperature

of 1961~1990
Temp. Deviation

Source: Climate Research Unit (2006).

To make a systematic and reliable diagnosis of global warming, scientific analysis of climate
change has been periodically made by IPCC since 1990. So far, IPCC has published its First (1990),
Second (1995) and Third (2001) Assessment Report and its Fourth Assessment Report was being
prepared as its Working Group I (Physical Science of Climate Change), Working Group II (Impacts,
Adaptation, Vulnerability) and Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change) announced their
reports in April 2007 (IPCC, 2007).2

2
IPCC is an international organization founded in 1988 and its 4th Assessment Report published in April 2007 i
nvolves 2,500 scientists from around the world, over about 6 years of research, and 130 countries acknowledged
the validity of the Report (Presidential Advisory Council on Education, Science and Technology, 2007).
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 IPPC WGI Report, which was prepared based on physical science, suggests that the atmosphere’s
carbon dioxide concentration has increased by about 1.4 times (379ppm in 2005) over the past 100
years, in comparison to the pre-industrialization concentration (280ppm). Accordingly, it is estimated
that the average global temperature has risen 0.74℃ (0.56∼0.92℃) over the past 100 years
(1906~2005) <Figure 2>. Especially, the average temperature of the Northern hemisphere in the late
20th century, which appears to be the highest temperatures recorded since 1850 and the temperature
rise during the last 20 years is shown to be more than twice that of the past 100 years. This report
states that there is no doubt that global warming is occurring in the climate system and affirms that
greenhouse gases are an artificial cause of global warming.3

Figure 2. Average global temperature and change trend

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scenarios. The IPCC Assessment Report provides greenhouse gas emission scenarios by forecasting
the change in greenhouse gas concentration according to demographics and socioeconomic
development. The Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) presents four main scenarios (A1, A2,
B1, and B2) and three other scenarios (A1F, A1T, A1B) modified according to their technological
emphasis in the A1 scenario <Figure 3>.

Figure 3. Conceptual diagram of scenarios for estimating climate change

Emphasis on Economic Growth

A1 A2
World of Very Heterogeneous
Rapid Economic World
Growth
(A1F, A1T, A1B)

Globalization Localization

B1 B2
World of
Continuous World Where
Development Regions Coexist

Harmony between Environment and

Economy

Source: Kim, Chang-Gil and et al. (2009), p.21.

The A1 scenario assumes a very-rapid economic growth, in which the rapid growth of the global
economy and population peaks in 2050 and declines thereafter, in which then new efficient
technologies are introduced. It is divided into three groups according to the alternative development of
energy technology. The three scenarios are the fossil intensive scenario (A1F1), non-fossil energy
scenario (A1T), and balanced-energy source scenario (A1B)
A2 is the scenario for a heterogeneous world with a high population growth rate, a low economic
growth rate, and the most diversified but slowly developing technologies.
The B1 scenario assumes the same population growth rate as that of the A1 scenario but at a lower
economic growth rate. In this scenario, the economic structure changes toward a service and
information economy and the sustainable development is pursued with an emphasis on clean and
resource-efficient technologies.

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 B2 is a scenario for a world where regions coexist with each other in harmony. This scenario
assumes the intermediate level of population and economic growth between A1 and B1, and focuses
on regional solutions for economic, social and environmental sustainability.
The average global temperature by the end of the 21st century is estimated to rise by 1.1~6.4℃
from the period of 1980~1999, and the sea level is forecasted to rise by 18~59cm due to heat
expansion and the loss of land glaciers <Table 1>.

Table 1. Estimated temperature rise in 2100 under each scenario

Temperature Change (℃) Sea Level Rise

Scenario
Optimal Estimation Expected Range (cm)
Very rapid economic growth (A1FI) 4.0 2.4~6.4 26~59
Non-fossil intensive energy (A1T) 2.4 1.4~3.8 20~45
Balanced-energy source (A1B) 2.8 1.7~4.4 21~48
Heterogeneous world (A2) 3.4 2.0~5.4 23~51
Continuous development (B1) 1.8 1.1~2.9 18~38
Coexistence of regions (B2) 2.4 1.4~3.8 20~43
Source: IPCC (2007), p. 8.

Estimates of future climate change vary greatly from scenario to scenario. In the continuous
development scenario (B1), in which environmental conservation and economic development are
compatible with each other, temperature change is estimated to be about 1.8℃ (1.1~2.9℃), while the
rise of about 4.0℃ (2.4~6.4℃) is expected under the very rapid economic growth scenario (A1)
based on fossil-intensive energy sources. By 2030, however, it is estimated in all scenarios that the
temperature will rise at the rate of 0.2℃ for every 10 years <Figure 4>.

Figure 4. Estimated trend of temperature rise under each scenario

Source: IPCC (2007).

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 According to the fourth IPCC Assessment Report, it is anticipated that the impacts of climate
change will vary greatly with the degree of temperature rise and the latitudinal locations. When the
temperature rise is less than 1℃, damages by natural disasters such as water shortage and floods are
foreseen in some areas. However, the report warns that if the temperature rises by 2~3℃, most areas
will be subject to damages by natural disasters and about 20~30% of animals and plants will be
subject to endangerment. Furthermore, if the temperature rises by more than 3℃, substantial
economic and environmental damages are expected, including chronic water shortages, ecosystem
destruction, reduced food production, and increased occurrences of diseases.

3. Impacts of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector

3.1. Conceptual Approach
Agricultural production is carried out through the selection of crops suitable for the climate of a
specific region and application of proper farming methods. Therefore, agriculture is a climate-
dependent bio-industry with notable regional characteristics. Regional characteristics refer to the
ecosystem characteristics determined by the climate of the region. Climate change disturbs the
agricultural ecosystem, resulting in the change in agricultural climatic elements such as temperature,
precipitation, and sunlight, while further influencing the arable, livestock, and hydrology sectors.
The flow of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector can be illustrated as shown in
<Figure 5>. First of all, the impacts of climate change on the arable and livestock sector are made
known by biological changes including the change of flowering and harvesting seasons, quality
change, and shift of areas suitable for cultivation.5 Climate change affects the agricultural ecosystem,
giving

5
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production are divided into primary impacts and secondary impacts. T
he primary impacts refer to the changes in the composition of the atmosphere due to increased greenhouse gases, whi
ch include the change in crop growth response and the change in energy and moisture balance in the farmland. The s

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 Figure 5. Flow of the climate change impact on the agricultural sector

Climate Changes in the agricultural climate

Change resources (temperature, precipitation,
sunlight, etc.)

Arable/Livestock Sector Hydrology Sector

Change in agricultural Changes in livestock production

y Underground water (
Changes in ecosystem level, temperature)
production - Blights and pest - Biological changes (fertilization,
- Biological changes (blooming y River flow
season, earing season) - Population migration breeding)
- Quality change - Change in biodiversity - Change in pasture production y Water quality of lak
- Change of areas suitable for es and marshes, etc.
cultivation

Change in productivity Change in

Change in asset value available water

Change in the agricultural Change in the agricultural

system infrastructure

Source: Kim, Chang-Gil and et al. (2009), p.36.

rise to blights and pests and causing population movement and change in biodiversity. In the livestock
sector, climate change brings about biological changes in areas such as fertilization and breeding and
also affects the growing pattern of pastures.
Climate change affects the hydrology including underground water level, water temperature, river
flow, and water quality of lakes and marshes, by impacting precipitation, evaporation, and soil
moisture content. In particular, the increase of precipitation by climate change leads to an increase of
outflow while the temperature rise increases evaporation, resulting in the reduction of outflow. In
order to understand the quantitative impacts of climate change on water resources, a deterministic
hydrology model, based on the general circulation model, is used.
As illustrated above, climate change has a wide range of impacts on the rural economy including
agricultural productivity, revenues of the farm household and asset values, and it also affects the
agricultural infrastructure through the change in water sources available for agriculture.
So far, the quantitative analyses on the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector have
been experimental centering on cross-sectional analysis. The experimental analyses are carried out on
the basis of agro-economic simulation models. They are similar to the controlled experiments in
which related variables are regulated, in that variables related to greenhouse gases such as temperature
levels and carbon dioxide emissions levels are regulated. In these experiments, the impact of climate
change on agricultural production can also be estimated.
Agro-ecological zone analysis is carried out by using the crop simulation model (called the crop
model for short) that tracks the changes in agricultural production and agro-ecological zones that have

9
resulted from climate change. Crop growth is determined by the combined action of three elements,
those being the genetic characteristics of crop, cultivation technology, and environment (climate, soil,
etc.). The crop model refers to a computer program that can estimate the crop growth and its quantity
when these three elements are entered. Using the crop model, it is possible to estimate and analyze
agricultural production under climate change. The Crop estimation through the Resource and
Environment Synthesis (CERES) model developed in the USA by integrating the crop model and the
resource environment can assume a certain situation that is likely to happen and forecast its possible
results.
To analyze how and to what extent the change in temperature and precipitation following global
warming affects the agricultural sector various experiments, simulations and research methods are
carried out both in laboratories and in the field. As the impacts of climate change on the agricultural
sector vary with the related variables, it is difficult to generalize certain analytical results. Therefore,
what is attempted here is to classify the impacts of climate change into positive and negative ones
based on the results that researches have gathered thus far in related fields <Figure 6>.
The positive impacts of global warming include the increase in crop productivity due to fertilization
effect caused by the increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, expansion of the
areas available for production of tropical and/or subtropical crops, expansion of two-crop farming due
to the increased cultivation period, reduction of damages of winter crops by low temperature, and
reduction of heating cost for agricultural crops grown in the protected cultivation facilities.

Figure 6. Potential impacts of global warming on the agricultural sector

<Positive Impact> <Negative Impact>

Increase in productivity due to Reduction of productivity due

the increased CO2 to temperature rise
concentration

Increase in productivity at low Quality degradation due to

level of temperature rise temperature rise
Changes in the agricultural
environment
- Temperature rise
Possibility of cultivating new Increase of weeds, blights and
- Increase of dry and wet
crop varieties conditions pest
- Increase of CO2 in the
atmosphere Increase of agricultural
Extended growth period disasters such as moisture
stress and drought

Reduction of heating cost for Change in areas suitable for

Increase of soil erosion
protected cultivation cultivation

Source: Kim, Chang-Gil and et al. (2009), p.38.

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 Negative impacts of global warming include reduced crop quantity and quality due to the reduced
growth period following high levels of temperature rise; reduced sugar content, bad coloration, and
reduced storage stability in fruits; increase of weeds, blights, and harmful insects in agricultural crops;
reduced land fertility due to the accelerated decomposition of organic substances; and increased soil
erosion due the increased rainfall.
In addition, each crop requires different climate and environmental conditions to grow. So, if
climate change like temperature rise occurs, the boundary and suitable areas for cultivation move
north and thus the main areas of production also change. The change in the main areas of production
might be as a crisis for certain areas but might be an opportunity for other areas, so it cannot be
classified either as a positive or as a negative impact.
In sum, the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector have ambivalent characteristics of
positive impacts creating opportunities and of negative impacts with costs. Therefore, it is very
important to formulate adaptation strategies that can maximize the opportunities and minimize the
costs that will lead to sustainable agriculture development.

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3.2. Climate Change Impacts on Korean Agriculture6
3.2.1. Impacts on the Agricultural Ecosystem
An agricultural climatic area is divided into agricultural climate zones according to different
agricultural climatic conditions. Average temperature of each agricultural climate zone has risen by
0.95℃ for the past 35 years (1973~2007). The climate zone that has shown the lowest temperature
rise is the Yeongnam inland/mountain zone (Yeongju, Mungyeong, etc.), which recorded a 0.2℃ rise.
On the other hand, the mid-northern inland, the central inland, and the southeastern coastal zones had
seen a temperature rise of 1.36~1.47℃. Especially, the average temperature of the mid-western planar
zone (Seosan, Boryeong, etc.) and the Charyeong southern planar zone (Gunsan, Buan, Jeongeup,
etc.); the granaries of Korea rose by 1.05~1.33℃ and the Taebaek highland zone, including
Daegwanryeong, also experienced a temperature rise of 1.04℃.
Meanwhile, precipitation had increased by 283㎜ on average for the past 35 years (1973~2007).
The Taebaek highland zone including Daegwanryeong, the Taebaek semi-highland zone, and the
Yeongnam inland/mountain zone had the greatest increased rate of 452~778㎜, while the Yeongnam
inland zone (Milyang, Jinju, etc.) had the lowest increased rate of 132㎜. The increase of precipitation
tends to have increased rapidly in summer but decreased slightly in winter since the 1970s.
Temperature increase by global warming has given rise to new types of blights and pests, causing
damages to crops. Especially, damages to apples, peaches, grapes, and soybeans, by brown
grasshoppers, are reported to have been increasing. The first case of damage by brown grasshoppers
was reported in Chungju and Danyang in Chungbuk Province and many cases of extensive damages
to peaches and grapes in the orchards near the mountains in Okcheon, Cheongwon and Boeun around
Yeongdong, Chungbuk Province and Suwon have been reported since 2006, amounting to 20ha of
damaged area. In 2007, about 30ha of the orchards across the Chungbuk Province was reported to be
damaged. Rice stripe tenuivirus, a viral disease for rice, has spread north, extending the damaged
areas up to 14,137ha across the nation including Gyeonggi, Chungnam, Jeonam, Jeonbuk and
Gyeongnam Provinces. For fruit trees, Lycorma delicatula is the pest that damages grapes, peaches,
and apples. Since first detected in 1979, the cases of damage by Lycorma delicatula have not been
reported for a while. In 2007, however, it returned to damage grapes in Yeongi County in Chungnam
Province and Suwon in Gyeonggi Province. It was reported that it damaged about 91ha of grape
orchards in Suwon in 2008.

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This section on analyzing climate change impacts in Korean agriculture was drawn from the research report by Korea
Rural Economic Institute (Chang-Gil Kim, et al. 2009).
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3.2.2. Impacts on Agricultural Production
For rice, the cultivation period is the basic condition for planning its production, which is decided
by the climate conditions and the rice variety. Among several agricultural climate conditions,
temperature is the critical factor in deciding the rice cultivation period. In general, rice is a summer
crop and when the temperature rises, the area available for cultivating rice extends north and the
variety and cultivation method also changes for adapting to the temperature change. For rice varieties
for transplantation, the cultivation regions suitable for early-maturing variety rice will become
suitable for medium-maturing variety rice and those for medium-maturing variety will become
suitable for late-maturing variety. It is reported that even the mountain areas at an altitude of 600m or
higher, where rice cultivation has not been possible due to low temperature, may also become suitable
for cultivating some early-maturing varieties of rice.
According to the meteorological data for Korea, the proper season for earning of rice (average
temperature during the ripening period: 21~23℃) was around August 15 in the 1970s but in the 2000s,
it was delayed about a week to August 21. The average temperature of 21~23℃ during the ripening
period is favorable for the production of high-quality rice. If the average temperature during this
period is higher than this range, rice cannot ripen fully. As a result, grains weigh less, contain more
protein, and become less tasty and nutritious. Temperature higher than the average temperature during
the ripening period results in the production of poor-quality rice.
Suitable areas for cultivating barley have been selected so as to avoid damages by severe cold
during the cultivation period. At present, barley is cultivated in such areas as Donghae and Yeongduk
along the east coast, Sacheon and Buseong along the south coast, and Yeonggwang and Gunsan along
the west coast, but rarely cultivated in midland areas. The reason for such a shift in the suitable
cultivation region for barley is because the coastal areas are less cold than the midland areas in winter,
the temperature during the ripening period for barley is lower than the midland, and thus grains can
ripen to their full weight. It is analyzed that, as ‘mild winter’ continued from 1987 to 2000 in which
temperatures remained within the range between 1.5~2.5℃, the limit line for cultivating winter barley
has been readjusted. According to the analysis of the average and lowest temperatures in January, for
12 years from 1987 to 1998, done for the study on winter barley cultivation regions following global
warming by the National Academy of Agricultural Science (NAAS, 2000), the safe zone for winter
barley cultivation has shifted far north.
Hot-temperature fruits and vegetables that require hot temperatures to grow such as watermelons,
peppers and tomatoes, grow faster and have better quality including higher sugar content, as
temperatures rise until it reaches the growth inhibition limit (35℃). On the contrary, for open-field
vegetables that favor cool temperatures such as radish and Korean cabbage, high temperatures may
result in lowered quality. With regards hot peppers, at temperature below 15℃ or above 30℃, the
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plant pollens are not properly set to the fruit, many of the fruits drop despite being set. Strawberries
also have flowering problems at high temperatures. Some vegetables like onions, green onions and
lettuce may have problems at high temperatures, as it causes flowers to split. When the temperature
rises, it is possible to save energy for heating greenhouses in winter. Also, it becomes possible to
cultivate winter cabbages, which have been cultivated in greenhouses in the subtropical island of Jeju
and in the fields of the southern coastal areas.
Climate change not only affects the growth of fruit trees but also their quality, harvest time and
storage. Apple trees are perennials that can produce fruits for a long period of time over 10 years in
the same place once they are planted. Therefore the change in climatic conditions significantly affects
the productivity and quality of apples. The average annual temperature in the areas in Korea where
apples are cultivated is lower than 13.5℃. It is known that if the temperature goes higher than this
temperature it is hard to produce good-quality apples. The regions suitable for cultivating apples
should have an average annual temperature of 13℃ or less and the winter temperature characteristics
of midlands or basins. Due to global warmingenergreage a1-7.1(v)prodl1 Tfr0j9(t)-0a Tc0.4(ds of)(t)5.9(a)-5(n)-4.5(s15(h)0

14
effect of input production factors and change in farmland utilization, so that it is widely used for
analyzing the economic impact of climate change (Kim Chang-gil and et al, 2008).
To forecast climate change, 27 cities and counties that are main production regions of Korean
cabbage, radish, red pepper, garlic, apples, and pears were analyzed in addition to main rice
production regions such as Gimje and Dangjin. On the assumption that climate information of all
observatories affects the climate of each city and county, all observatories that had continued
providing climate information between 1988~2007 were included in our analysis, which were 57 out
of 79 observatories in Korea. To estimate the long-term impact of climate change on agriculture, the
average of 20-year data from each observatory was used and to investigate the seasonal impact of
climate change on agriculture, climate data about January, April, July, and October was applied. It
was based on the assumption that the temperature in January affected the occurrence of blights and
pests in April, and temperature and precipitation in July had a significant impact on crop harvests in
October.
To apply the Ricardian model, socioeconomic variables and soil and geographic data were used as
well as climate variables. For farmland price, the internal data from the Korea Rural Economic
Institute was used. In order to prevent bias in farmland price, the average price of rice fields and dry
fields only in the agricultural development regions was used. Agricultural gross income and crop
income data was taken from KOSTAT data by provinces as there was no municipal data. GDP per
capita in each region was also taken from the provincial data provided by KOSTAT. Data about the
ratio of fields damaged by sea, wind or water, ratio of wet fields, inclination, and drainage grade was
taken from Korean Soils Information.
For estimations using the Ricardian model, regression analysis was carried out by setting the
algebraic linear function for farmland price with climate variable, square of climate variable,
socioeconomic variable, and soil variable. The farmland price involves future investment value
depending on its location in addition to future value of agricultural income from the farmland.
Therefore, in order to differentiate the influences of farmland price in a specific region and of
independent variables on the entire land price, weighted regression analysis approach was applied that
carried out regression analysis by weighting all variables with farmland area or crop income. The
regression analysis was carried out in three types: regression analysis only for the farmland price
weighted with farmland area, using climate variables (Model 1); regression analysis including other
variables (Model 2); and regression analysis that weighted variables with crop income (Model 3).
Though there might have been differences to some extent, it appeared that all three models produced
similar results for climate variables. The analytical result showed that the rise of average annual
temperature had a negative impact on farmland prices but that the average annual/monthly
precipitation had a positive impact. When climate variables and other independent variables were

15
included, it appeared that both the result of weighting variables with farmland area and that of
weighting them with crop income had a nonlinear relationship. When the quadratic term for the
climate variable had a positive value, it meant that it was at the lowest climate condition for
cultivation and thus the farmland value went up if the region was above that climate condition. On the
contrary, when the quadratic term had a negative value, it meant that there was an optimum climate
condition at which the farmland value was highest.
Other than climate variables, independent variables appeared to have the same sign consistently in
both models. It was shown that both the per capita production and population growth rate of a region
positively affected the farmland price. In other words, it can be interpreted that as income and
population grows, the demand for farmlands increased resulting in the rise in farmland price. On the
other hand, soil erosion and inclination, both considered negative factor in agriculture appeared to
have a negative impact on the farmland price. Contrary to expectations, the ratio of frequently
damaged lands had a positive impact on the farmland price. This is likely because, though 53 out of
80 cities and counties appeared to have no damaged lands, most of the cities and counties in
metropolitan areas, where the farmland price was relatively high, were included in the damaged areas
and so the ratio was also high.
The result of estimation based on the algebraic linear model shows that, when temperature rose by
1℃ from the average annual temperature (12.4℃), the farmland price fell by approximately 14,550
thousand won/ha (Model 2) and by 19,240 thousand won/ha (Model 3). These prices correspond
respectively to 5.7% and 7.5% of the average farmland prices for 80 cities and counties. Meanwhile,
precipitation that had a positive impact on farmland price if it increased by 1㎜ from the average
monthly/annual precipitation (110.8㎜), i.e., if it increased 12㎜ a year, the farmland price appeared
to rise by 330 thousand won/ha (Model 2) and 360 thousand won /ha (Model 3).
According to “A Case Study on Prediction of Climate Change Impact on the Korean Peninsula” by
the Ministry of Environment, temperatures in 2020 in Korea will rise by 1.2℃ and precipitation will
increase by 11%. In this case, the temperature rise will result in the farmland price drop of
14,550~19,240 thousand won/ha but at the same time the precipitation increase result in the farmland
price rise to 4.03~4,40 million won/ha. Therefore, the overall impact of climate change on farmland
price could be evaluated as a drop of about 13.43 ~18.68 million won/ha.
In analyzing the economic impacts of climate change, it is crucial for the Ricardian approach to
derive as correct a farmland price as possible under perfect competition. In a country like Korea
where land area is small and population is large, the demand for land utilization is very diverse and
thus it is difficult to reflect pure future value and there is a high possibility of overestimating it. For
farmlands adjacent to a city, it becomes more difficult to calculate a proper land price if the demand

16
for development increases or a speculative demand arises. Also, in Korea where the free trading of
farmlands is restricted, the value of a farmland might be underestimated.
The reason why the Ricardian approach is deemed useful despite the above-mentioned limitations
is because it is appropriate for the market economy theory and it estimates the equilibrium assuming
that all elements including the adaptation measures to climate change are optimized. In other words,
the Ricardian approach has more economic implications in comparison to other economic analyses as
they assess the impact of climate change under the existing conditions using the production function
rather than assuming the optimized condition.

3.3. Climate Change Impacts on Chinese Agriculture

Climate change impacts on Chinese agriculture and livestock farming include the increase in
unstable factors for agricultural production, severe drought and heat injuries in some regions, and
worsening of freezing injury in early spring because of the accelerated crop growth periods due to
global warming. The forage yield and quality have decreased and the loss of agriculture and stock
farming by meteorological disasters has increased.
The climate change impacts on agriculture and livestock farming is expected to last into the future.
It is expected that, due to climate change, the yield of three major crops in China such as wheat, rice,
and corn will decrease and the productivity of Chinese agriculture will drop by 5~10% by 2030. In the
late 21st century, the yield of the three major crops in

17
 Climate change will significantly increase the production costs of Chinese agriculture. Extreme
climate change in China will result in an increase in torrential rain and precipitation. Especially in the
1990s, the precipitation and the rate of torrential rain had increased in the Long River valley and the
southern region of the Long River, the frequency of heavy rain and flood also increased in the Yellow
River and the Hoehwa valleys, and heat waves in the summer time also increased. The increase in
such extreme weather conditions will increase the frequency of disasters, resulting in insecure food
production and an increase in production cost.
Climate change in China is also expected to affect the crop blight and pests. According to statistics,
it is expected that the agricultural production of China will have a loss of 20~25% of its gross
agricultural production due to blights and pests (Government of China, 2004). Global warming will
expand the activities of blights and pests that had been limited by low temperature conditions,
resulting in an adverse impact on crop growth. At the same time, the greenhouse effect will lengthen
the viable period of some blights and pests, aggravating the crop damages.
Under the scenario of doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the majority
of areas in China would experience climate warming and heat resources would increase. If the
conditions of water, fertilizer and crop variety could meet the demands of such changes, it would be
favorable for crop growing and photosynthesis. After climate warming, the areas north of the Yangtze
River in China, especially in the middle-altitude and plateau areas, the crop growth season would start
earlier and close later, and the potential growth season would be prolonged. However, after the
climate warming, because the growth of crops is accelerated, the fertility period would be shortened
generally. This would produce adverse effects on material accumulation and grain output. At the same
time, the trend of drought and the deterioration of soil moisture conditions as a result of climate
change would not be beneficial to wheat growth in China.
The spatial and temporal distribution of climate resources would be affected by climate warming,
and the present cropping system would change accordingly. The cultivated area of a single cropping
system might drop by 23%, the north boundary of a double cropping system might move northward to
the middle part of the region of the present single cropping system, and the proportion of a triple
cropping system might change from the present 13.5% to 36%. The northern boundary for a triple
cropping system would move northward by approximately 500 km from the Yangtze River basin to
the Yellow River basin.
With climate warming, a change would take place in the localities of major crop strains in China.
Some crop strains currently popularized at some regions for specific climate conditions and might not
be able to adapt to the changed climate conditions. New crop strains must be cultivated at appropriate
time. The problem of high temperatures caused by climate warming might be offset, to a certain
extent, by the adjustment of crop patterns and structure and also by making use of the temperature

18
adaptability of crops. However, because of the impacts of other factors such as moisture content, it
is hard to affirm whether the temperature increase would result in the increase of crop index, or even
total yield.
Via simulations of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in China, some studies have
shown the impacts of climate warming on the yield of major crops in China under 2×CO2 scenario. It
is found that the impacts of climate warming on the yield of spring wheat would be larger than that of
winter wheat; regarding single rice, the fall of crop yields would increase gradually from the south to
the north with a rate between 6~17%; yield of early rice will drop and the least drop will occur in the
central south part of the Yangtze River, while in the surrounding areas, particularly in areas in the
west, there would be a considerable reduction in the yield (generally between 2~5%); yield of late rice
in the north-western part of the areas south of the Yangtze River would all drop significantly, while
that in the south-eastern part would drop less. Spring and summer maize yields would be reduced by
2~7% and by 5~7% respectively, and irrigated and non-irrigated maize yield would be reduced by
2~6% and about 7% respectively due to global warming.
Along with climate change, occurrence of unusual disasters such as drought, flood, high
temperature and freezing events might increase. The results of the simulation showed that under the
assumption of no changes for the present planting system, planting varieties and production level, the
total grain production might drop by about 10% due to climate change and extreme climate events
during the period of 2030~2050. The production of three major crops – wheat, rice and maize – might
all be reduced. Although climate change will unlikely affect China’s capacity of producing grains on a
self-sufficient basis, the country would require enhanced agricultural production management
methods, among others, to meet the climate challenge.

3.4. Climate Change Impacts on Indian Agriculture

Food grain production in India has increased spectacularly due to the Green Revolution from 50
Mt in 1951 to 212 Mt in 2002, and the mean cereal productivity has increased from 500 kg/ ha to
almost 1800 kg/ ha (Government of India, 2004). These increases were largely the result of area
expansion, large-scale cultivation of new high yielding semi-dwarf varieties since the early 1960s, and
the increased application of irrigation, fertilizers and biocides, supported by progressive government
policies. Currently, Indian agriculture has 190 million ha gross sown area (142 million ha net sown
area), and 40% of this is irrigated. There have been similar revolutions in the production of milk, fish,
eggs, sugar, and a few other crops. India is now the largest producer of milk, fruits, cashew nuts,
coconuts and tea in the world, the second largest producer of wheat, vegetables, sugar and fish, and
the third largest producer of rice. This growth in agricultural production has also led to considerable
surplus food stocks purchased by the government.
The droughts of 1987, 1999~2000, and of 2002~2003 could generally be managed and did not lead
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to severe problems of food security because of these buffer stocks. Despite this progress, food
production in India, on an aggregated scale, is still considerably dependent on the rainfall quantity and
its distribution. The summer monsoon (June through September) contributes to 78% of India’s annual
rainfall and is a major water resource. It is important to recognize that the Green Revolution was
largely confined to the irrigated areas. In the past 50 years, there have been around 15 major droughts,
due to which the productivity of rain fed crops in those years was affected. Limited options for other
income and widespread poverty continue to threaten the livelihoods of millions of small and marginal
farmers in this region.
The food security of India may be at risk once again in the future due to continued population
growth. By 2050, India’s population is projected to grow to 1.6 billion. This rapid and continuing
increase in the population implies a greater demand for food. The demand for rice and wheat, the
predominant staple foods, is expected to increase to 122MT and 103Mt, respectively, by 2020,
assuming medium income growth. The demand for pulses, fruits, vegetables, milk, meat, eggs and e

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roadmap of sustainable agricultural development may also have to consider two additional important
global drivers of change in agriculture in the coming decades: globalization and climate change. The
on-going globalization process and multilateral trade liberalization associated with the World Trade
Organization (WTO) is forcing India to make structural adjustments in the agricultural sector to
increase its competitiveness and efficiency.

4. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for the Agricultural Sector

4.1. Countermeasures against Climate Change
It has been known that climate change has resulted from the disruption of the energy balance for
the global climatic system caused by the increase of greenhouse gases and aerosol in the atmosphere
and the changes in land covering and solar radiation. Especially, it has been suggested by the results
of scientific analyses that global warming is very likely to have resulted from human activities (IPCC,
2007). Countermeasures that the agricultural sector can consider in the face of risks and challenges of
climate change, represented by global warming, are largely divide into the mitigation method that
reduces the scale and rate of climate change by mitigating and absorbing the greenhouse gas emission
and the adaptation method that admits the inevitability of global warming, understands the impacts of
climate change, and minimizes the damages it could cause <Figure 7>.

Figure 7. Approaches to the countermeasures against climate change

Climate Change
Antropogenic (including
Disturbance Variability)

Exposure

Initial Impact
Vulnerability
Impacts

Greenhouse Gas
Mitigation/
Absorption
Voluntary
Adaptation

Planned Adaptation to
Remaining (Net) Impacts and Vulnerability
Impacts

Political
Counteraction

Source: IPCC (2007).

Once climate change starts, components of the climate system (such as the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, lithosphere, etc.) are initially affected by climate change by being
exposed to it and attempting to adapt themselves to that stimulus voluntarily. However, if the impact
of climate change is huge, the climate system cannot handle the impact only through voluntary
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adaptation and thus planned adaptation that needs special measures should be attempted. If climate
change still has an impact on the climate system even when the planned adaptation is in effect, it is
said that there is a remaining impact. As it is difficult for systems to adapt to climate change, efforts
have focused on reducing the scale of climate change through mitigation measures such as greenhouse
gas reduction and absorption. Mitigation that reduces greenhouse gas emission contributes to avoiding,
reducing and postponing various impacts of climate change. As climate change mitigation and
adaptation are closely interrelated with each other, mitigation can be considered as belonging to
adaptation measures in the long-term perspective. Therefore, adaptation to climate change is not
optional but rather a compulsory countermeasure against climate change.
Mitigation measures for the agricultural sector include the improvement of cultivation methods
through improved irrigation and fertilization control for the arable sector to suppress major
greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), improvement of animal excretion
treatment technologies in the livestock sector, and carbon fixing for the farmland soil.8 In relation to
the countermeasures against climate change for the agricultural sector, this study focuses on the
adaptation plans based on the analysis of the impacts of climate change.

4.2. Strategies for Climate Change Mitigation

In reality, it is almost impossible to implement the first-best solution to accurately measure the
external effects of global warming and impose the economic costs to the specific greenhouse gas
emitters. Under this background, the second-best solution for developing relevant policy programs
and forming appropriate portfolios to approach is addressed as a practical method using a policy mix.
Considering the given circumstances in a realistic manner, the means for greenhouse gas reduction are
classified into economical means, regulatory means, voluntary agreement, R&D and popularization,
information provision, and promotion of public awareness.
Economic means refer to policies that utilize market mechanisms, such as charges, carbon tax (or
greenhouse gas tax), emission trading scheme, and subsidy.
Greenhouse gas charge, a scheme to impose a charge equivalent to the input price for the unit
emission of greenhouse gas to the specific greenhouse gas emitters, is an ideal economic means to
achieve efficient resource distribution using fiscal incentives. In order to put this scheme in force,
greenhouse gas emissions of each emitter should be monitored and the emitter should be charged
according to the actual amount of emission.
The taxes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can be divided into carbon tax and greenhouse gas
tax. Carbon tax is a system to impose taxes in proportion to the carbon content of fossil fuels used. In
reality, because of the convenience of assessment and collection, carbon taxes have been put into
8
The measures to mitigate climate change impacts, focused on the reduction and absorption of greenhouse gas emissi
on in the agricultural sector are suggested in the article by Kim Chang-gil and et al. (2007, p.97-118).
22
practice in the form of a product charge. Greenhouse gas taxes differ from carbon tax in that the
former is based on the amount of gas emissions while the latter is based on the input amount (or
production amount) of fossil fuel which is the source of gas emissions. Though carbon tax is the same
as a greenhouse gas tax, in that both can maintain the input amount of fossil fuels at efficient levels,
the former is more feasible as it sets the input amount of fossil fuels as its basis for taxation. Unlike a
greenhouse gas tax, which requires the taxation office to monitor the accurate amount of greenhouse
gas emissions, carbon tax requires the taxation office to monitor only the shipping stage or the
distribution stage of fossil fuels for taxation. As tax is input into the fossil fuel price, the input price of
greenhouse gas can be reflected in the end users' decision-making. Therefore, the administrative cost
for putting a carbon tax in force is relatively small.
An emission trading system is a scheme that sets emission credits based on total greenhouse gas
emissions and permits the trade of the credits in the market. The demand and supply of emission
credits is determined by the pricing function together with its market demand. If a certain greenhouse
gas source can emit greenhouse gas at a lower cost, the emitter can reduce its emission, get as much
emission credit as the reduced amount, and sell the emission credit on the emission trading market for
a profit.
Subsidy is a system by which the government permits greenhouse gas emitters the right to emit
greenhouse gases to a certain level and compensates them with subsidy if they give up a certain
portion of the right granted to them. In order for the subsidy system to operate properly, the
government should have a correct understanding of various information such as technology level, cost
and reduction potential of the subsidized.
To ensure the appropriate operation of economic means that are based on the market function,
reliable data and information should be collected regarding the social marginal cost of greenhouse gas
emissions and the social benefits of greenhouse gas reduction.
Direct regulation is a scheme in which the government regulates emission standards using various
policies and measures under law to ensure that emitters can comply and meet the required greenhouse
gas emission level. An emission standard is a policy measure that specifies total greenhouse gas
emission caps for each source and ensures compliance of the emitters, which is simpler and clearer
than other policy measures, so that the government can introduce it and put it into force without
difficulty. Examples of regulatory measures applicable to the agricultural sector include emission cap,
chemical fertilizer spraying standard, manure and liquid fertilizer spraying standard and breeding
density regulations.
Voluntary agreement is a non-regulatory policy measure by which firms (business establishments
or farmers) and the government voluntarily agrees on greenhouse gas reduction targets, reduction
plans, and the scale of government support to achieve. Voluntary agreements for greenhouse gas

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