3rd Module
3rd Module
3rd Module
Foreign Exchange
Foreign exchange is the trading of one currency for another currency in the foreign
exchange market at a specific rate. The specific rate is known as the foreign exchange rate.
Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) defines. “foreign exchange as foreign currency
and includes all deposits, credits and balance payable in any foreign currency and any drafts,
travelers cheque, letters of credit and bill of exchange drawn by banks, institutions or
persons outside India but payable in Indian currency”
Foreign Exchange Market
Foreign exchange market is market where the currencies of different countries are bought
and sold. The buyers and sellers include central bank, commercial banks, foreign exchange
brokers, business firms, exporters, importers and individuals. Like any other market, foreign
exchange market is a system, not a particular place.
Structure of Foreign Exchange Market
Central banks are the apex body as they hold the top position in the foreign exchange
market. They have the power to control and regulate the domestic foreign exchange market
to ensure that it works in an orderly manner. One of their main functions is to prevent by
direct intervention, if necessary, the violent fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Foreign exchange brokers hold the second most important place in the foreign exchange
market. Brokers work as a link between the central bank and the commercial banks and
between the banks. They are the major source of market information. Their main function is
to facilitate foreign exchange transactions between the actual buyers and the banks, the
sellers.
Commercial banks make the third important organ of the foreign exchange market. Banks
dealing in foreign exchange play the role of market makers-they quote the daily exchange
rates for buying and selling a foreign currency. They work also as the clearing house. They
clear the market by buying the foreign currency from the brokers and selling it to the
buyers.
At the bottom of the foreign exchange market are the actual buyers and sellers of the
foreign currencies-exporters, importers, tourists, investors and immigrants. They are the
actual users of the foreign exchange.
Foreign exchange market is the biggest market in the world economy. Unlike other markets,
the foreign exchange market centers work 24 hours a day and seven days a week. Foreign
bills of exchange, telegraphic transfer, bank draft, letter of credit, etc. are the important
foreign exchange instruments used in the foreign exchange market to carry out its functions.
Functions of Foreign Exchange Market
Transfer Function:
The basic function of the foreign exchange market is to facilitate the conversion of one
currency into another currency that is to accomplish transfers of purchasing power
between two countries. This transfer of purchasing power is functioned through a
variety of credit instruments, such as telegraphic transfers, bank draft and foreign bills.
Credit Function:
Another function of the foreign exchange market is to provide credit, both national and
international, to promote foreign trade. Bills of exchange, with maturity period of three
months, are generally used for international payments. Credit is required for this period
in order to enable the importer to take possession of goods, sell them and obtain money
to pay off the bill.
Hedging Function
Hedging means the avoidance or covering of a foreign exchange risk. In a free exchange
market when exchange rate, i. e., the price of one currency in terms of another currency,
change, there may be a gain or loss to the party concerned. These foreign exchange risks
can be avoided or covered by hedging through forward contract. This usually involves an
agreement today to buy or sell a certain amount of foreign exchange at some future
date (usually three months hence) at a rate agreed upon today. No money passes at the
time of the contract.
Kinds of foreign exchange market
Spot Market
Spot market refers to that segment of the foreign exchange market in which the sale and
purchase of foreign currency are settled within two days of the deal. The rate at which
foreign currency is bought and sold in the spot market is called spot exchange rate or
current rate of exchange. Spot market is of daily nature and deals only in spot transactions
of foreign exchange (not in future transactions).
Forward Market
The Forward exchange market refers to the market in which sale and purchase of foreign
currency is settled on a specified future date at a rate agreed upon today. When buyers
and sellers enter an agreement to buy and sell a foreign currency after 90 days of the
deal, it is called forward transaction. The exchange rate quoted in forward transactions is
known as the forward exchange rate. Generally, most of the international transactions
are signed on one date and completed on a later date. Forward exchange rate becomes
useful for both the parties involved in the transaction. Forward Contract is made for two
reasons: To minimize the risk of loss due to adverse changes in the exchange rate and to
make profit.
The nature of foreign exchange market
Hedging
Hedging is a method of covering risk arising from a change in the exchange rate. It
means settling the exchange rate by agreement 90 days in advance for forward
transactions with a view to avoiding the loss due to exchange rate fluctuations. The
contract between exporters and importers to buy and sell goods at some future date
takes place at current prices and the current exchange rate. The forward exchange
market provides an opportunity to cover the risk arising out of exchange rate fluctuation
and to avoid the resulting loss in foreign trade.
Arbitrage
It is an act of simultaneous purchase and sale of different foreign currencies in different
exchange markets. The objective of arbitraging is to make profit by taking the advantage
of different exchange rates in different exchange markets.
Speculation
Speculative transactions in foreign exchange transactions are opposite of hedging. In
hedging, the buyers and sellers try to avoid risk, if any, due to fluctuation in the
exchange rate, whereas speculation in foreign exchange is a deliberate attempt under
the condition of risk to make profits from the fluctuation in exchange rates. The
speculative sale and purchase of foreign currency is based on the speculators'
expectations about the future exchange rates. The two kinds of speculative dealers in
the foreign exchange market are bears and bulls. The bears of the foreign exchange
market expect the exchange rate between any two currencies to decline in the near
future and hence they sell their currency holding to avoid loss. On the other hand, the
bulls of the market expect exchange rate to increase, and hence they buy the foreign
currency with a view to selling it when exchange rate increases in future. If the
speculator correctly predicts the market, he or she makes a profit. Otherwise, the
speculator incurs a loss. Speculation usually occurs in the forward exchange market.
Currency Swap
Buying and selling of spot currency by commercial bank is known as currency swap. It is
also called double deals. It means sale of spot currency by commercial bank in order to
forward purchase of same currency or purchase of spot currency by commercial banks.
Exchange rate
The exchange rate is the rate at which currency of a country can be exchanged for another
country currency. In simple, price paid to unit of foreign currencies in terms of home
currencies. It expresses in two ways, ratio of one unit of foreign currency to certain number
of home currencies and on other hand ratio of certain number of home currency to one unit
of foreign currency.
Exchange rate is usually quoted in terms of rupees per unit of foreign currencies. Thus, an
exchange rate indicates external purchasing power of a money. A fall in the external
purchasing power or external value of rupee from Rs.80 = $ 1 (dollar) to Rs.90 = $ 1 amounts
to depreciation of the Indian rupee as we now need more rupees to purchase each dollar.
On the other hand, a rise in the external purchasing power or external value of rupee from
Rs.90 = $ 1 to Rs.80 =$ 1 amounts to appreciation of Indian rupee as we need less rupees to
purchase each dollar as compare to earlier.
Balance of payment
Inflation
Interest rates
Money supply
Political Factors
Technical Factors
The amount of foreign exchange is measured along the X axis and exchange rate is
measured along the Y axis. DD1 and SS1 are the demand and supply curves of foreign
exchange. The equilibrium market rate of exchange between dollar and pound sterling is
determined by the intersection of demand and supply curves at E. The equilibrium rate of
exchange is OR at which the quantity of foreign exchange demanded and supplied OQ. The
horizontal line drawn at M denotes mint parity. The horizontal lines drawn at U denote the
gold export point or upper specie point and L denote the gold import point or lower specie
point.
Criticism
International gold standard does not exist after the great depression of 1930’s
Most of the countries at present are having inconvertible paper currencies. In such a
system, the mint parity theory cannot at all determine the rate of exchange.
The theory emphasis the free international gold movements. The modern
governments do not permit the free buying and selling of gold internationally.
2. The Purchasing Power Parity Theory (PPP Theory)
The purchasing power parity theory was developed by Swedish economist Gustav Cassel.
The theory enunciates the determination of the rate of exchange between two inconvertible
paper currencies. This theory states that the equilibrium rate of exchange is determined by
the equality of the purchasing power of two inconvertible paper currencies. It implies that
the rate of exchange between two inconvertible paper currencies is determined by the
internal price levels in two countries.
There are two versions of the purchasing power parity theory:
(i) The Absolute Version and
(ii) The Relative Version.
ER = PA / PB = Rs.800/ $20
$I = Rs.40
The absolute version of the purchasing power parity theory has certain shortcomings. In
fact, the purchasing power is measured in relative terms. Moreover, there are differences in
the kinds and qualities of products in the two countries, differences in the pattern of
demand, technology, transport costs, tariff structures, tax policies, extent of state
intervention and control and several other factors. These differences prohibit the
measurement of exchange rate in two or more currencies in strict absolute terms.
b) The Relative Version:
The relative version of purchasing power parity theory is a modified version of its absolute
version. While the absolute version assumes price level to remain constant, in reality, price
levels do not remain constant. The relative PPP theory gives a measure of the change in the
exchange rate under the condition of changes in relative prices. The relative PPP theory
states that the relative change in the exchange rate over time is proportional to the change
in the relative price level over a period of time. In other words, the relative changes in the
price levels in two countries between some base period and current period have vital
bearing upon the exchange rates of currencies in the two periods. According to this version,
the equilibrium rate of exchange in the current period (R1) is determined by the equilibrium
rate of exchange in the base period (R0) and the ratio of price indices of current and base
period in one country to the ratio of price indices of current and base periods in the other
country. The formula for relative PPP theory is given as,
ER1 = (PB1/PB0 ÷ PA1/PA0) ER0
Where,
ER1 = Equilibrium exchange rate in current year
ER0 = Equilibrium exchange rate in base year
PB1 = Price index of country B in current year
PB0 = Price index of country B in base year
PA1 = Price index of country A in current year
PA0 = Price index of country A in base year
For eg: To illustrate, it is supposed that the original or base period rate of exchange between
rupee and dollar was $ 1 = Rs.64 The price index in India (country B) in the current period (P
B1 ) is 180 and the price index in the U.S.A. (country A) in the current period (PA1) is 160.
The price indices of two countries in the base period were 100 (PA0 and PB0)
So, the equilibrium exchange rate in current year ER1 =
ER1 = (PB1/PB0 ÷ PA1/PA0) ER0
ER0 = 64
PB1 = 180
PA1 = 160
PA0 = 100
PBO = 100
ER1 = (180/100 ÷ 160/100) 64
= (1.8/1.6) 64
= 64 X 1.125
= 72
It shows that rupee has depreciated while dollar has appreciated between the two periods.
If the price level in India (B) has risen between the two periods at a relatively lesser rate
than in the U.S.A., the exchange rate of rupee with dollar will appreciate. The dollar on the
opposite will show some depreciation.
It is, of course, true that the purchasing power parity between the two currencies is
determined by the quotient of their respective purchasing power. This parity is modified by
the cost of transportation including freights, insurance and other charges. These costs lay
down the limits within which the rate of exchange will fluctuate. The upper limit is called as
the commodity export point where as the lower limit is termed as the commodity import
point. These two limits are vary with varying price level. This is shown in the below diagram
Criticism
Tariff and subsidies changes purchasing power, so it was not reflected in this theory
Equilibrium exchange rate depend upon the reciprocal demand for foreign
exchanges. This was excluded in the relative purchasing power parity.
Difficulty to compare the general price level
3. The theory neglect the role of the price level influencing the BOP of a country.
4. This theory neglect the basic value of currency used in the exchange system.
Exchange rate system (Foreign exchange rate policy)
There are two broad types or systems of exchange rate known as fixed exchange rate and
flexible exchange rate.
I. Fixed Exchange rate system
It was also called Pegged exchange rate system. Under fixed exchange rate policies all
exchange rate transactions take place at an exchange rate that is determined by
government or monetary authority of a country. If the exchange rate diverges from the
equilibrium due to some reasons then the monetary authority interfaces and correct the
equilibrium. Under a fixed exchange rate system, devaluation and revaluation are official
changes in the value of country’s currency relative to other currencies.
Argument for /Advantages of the Fixed Exchange Rate System:
In this system, the exporters know in advance that what they will receive and importers
know how much they will pay. So it eliminates all the possibilities of risk and uncertainty
and Promote smooth flow of international trade.
2. It creates condition for the smooth flow of foreign capital
This system ensures a high degree of certainty in international business, and thereby
economic stability in individual economies as well as the global economy. It is more
conducive to the expansion of world trade as it prevents risk and uncertainty in transactions.
Due to stability in exchange rate, the system can pave the way for greater degree of
economic integration among the country.
5. Ensure Long term Capital Investment
In this exchange rate system, Investors can plan long term investment and large scale capital
inflows facilitates higher rate of economic growth.
1. Sacrifice of Objectives
A serious defect in this system of exchange rates is that the authorities become concerned
primarily with the maintenance of exchange rate at some official level. It often results in the
sacrifice of the objectives of price stability and full employment.
The fixed or stable exchange rates can be responsible for transmitting the economic
disturbances in one country to another. Suppose there are deflationary conditions in one
country, It will export its low-price goods to other countries. The industries of foreign
countries, faced with competition from cheap goods, will be forced to lower their prices and
vice versa.
3 Heavy Burden upon the Authorities:
If a country is under continuous pressure on account of the BOP deficit, the government or
monetary authority may not be in a position to mobilise sufficient international liquid
resource for undertaking the pegging operations. In the event of failure to mobilise reserves
of foreign currencies, the home currency has to be devalued.
The policy of fixed exchange rates cannot help in resolving the problem of BOP deficit. It
simply suppresses it through the government intervention. The forces underlying the BOP
disequilibrium remain to be tackled through monetary, fiscal and other policies
5. High degree of Exchange Controls:
The policy of fixed or stable exchange rates requires quite complicated exchange control
mechanism. This can result in misallocation of economic resources, bureaucratic
II. Flexible Exchange Rate System (Fluctuating or Floating Exchange rate)
Under a flexible exchange rate system, exchange rate determined by market forces of
demand and supply. The government or monetary authority does not interfere with the
working of exchange rate. Under a flexible exchange rate, if there is an excess supply of
currency the value of that currency decreases this is called depreciation. On the other hand,
shortage of currency will lead to an appreciation of currency in foreign markets.
Arguments for Flexible Exchange Rates: (Advantage)
1. Simple Mechanism:
The system of flexible exchange rates operates in an easy, quick and efficient manner in
clearing the foreign exchange market. It ensures an automatic adjustment between the
forces of demand and supply without involving any intervention of the monetary or fiscal
authorities in the foreign exchange market.
2. Continuous Adjustments:
Under a system of flexible exchange rates, there are smooth and continuous adjustments in
the foreign exchange market through appropriate changes in the rates of exchange.
3. No Need of Accommodating Gold or Capital Movements:
Unlike the fixed, exchange system where the achievement of BOP equilibrium requires the
accommodating gold or capital movements, there is no such necessity under flexible
exchange rates. The automatic exchange rate adjustments ensure the maintenance of BOP
equilibrium even without the accommodating transactions.
4. No Necessity of Adjustments through Price and Income Changes:
The flexible exchange system can ensure the automatic BOP adjustment through the simple
mechanism of freely flexible exchange rates rather than price and income variations.
5. Removal of the Problem of International Liquidity:
In a system of flexible exchange rates, a deficit country is simply to allow its currency to
depreciate and adjust the BOP equilibrium. On the other hand, the pegging of exchange rate
payment to BOP deficit required large inflows of foreign currencies. There is no problem s of
liquidity under flexible exchange rates.
6. Economical:
The flexible exchange system is very economical. There is no idle holding of international
currency reserves that is so essential under the system of fixed exchange rates. The
countries having flexible exchange system can make an optimum use of their entire
available exchange reserves.
7. Beneficial for International Trade:
In the case of a flexible exchange system because exchange rates are likely to remain at the
natural level due to continuous market adjustments, it can ensure sustained expansion of
trade and steady growth of the economy.
1. Possibility of Disequilibrium:
In case of flexible exchange system, it is believed that the free working of the market forces
results in the establishment of rate of exchange that corresponds with the BOP equilibrium.
The flexible exchange system presumes that the government does not interfere in the
foreign exchange market. The government may not directly interfere through pegging or
exchange controls and regulations. But there can still be indirect government intervention
through the impact of monetary and fiscal policies
3. Not Practical:
It is advocated in this system that the exchange rate should be allowed to be determined by
the free working of demand and supply forces in the market. All the governments in the
present day world exercise controls upon the prices of goods, services, capital and all other
assets in varying degrees. Such a system of exchange rates is, therefore, not consistent with
the actual realities of practical life.
The flexible exchange system causes frequent variations in the rates of exchange which
create exchange risks, breed uncertainty and be a barrier for the international trade and
capital movements.
5. Destabilizing Speculation:
A very strong objection against the flexible exchange system is that continuous variations in
exchange rate greatly stimulate the activities of speculators in the foreign exchange market
and which is highly destabilizing. That means, it tends to widen the fluctuation in exchange
rate.
6. Not Suited to the Less Developed Countries:
The flexible exchange system may efficiently bring about BOP adjustment in advanced
countries. But it is suitable to less developed countries In case of the latter, the necessity of
maintaining a rate of investment higher than that of savings and difficulty in reducing
imports, while the capacity to export is limited, there are persistent BOP deficits.
Basis Fixed Exchange Rate Flexible Exchange Rate