Lectures 24-10-2024

-How to avoid Ecological economist Herman Daly (1990) identified
four conditions for avoiding overshoot: In order to

overshoot? live sustainably within Earth’s carrying capacity,
humans would need to
• maintain the health of ecosystems (our life-support
systems);
• use renewable resources at a rate no faster than
they can be regenerated;
• use nonrenewable resources at a rate no faster than
they can be replaced by the discovery of
renewable substitutes;
• and emit wastes and pollutants at a rate no faster
than the rate at which they can be safely
assimilated.
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-Complex adaptive systems (CAS)
The problems facing the planet, such as climate change, mass
extinction, water scarcity, and poverty, are challenging because
they are intrinsically systems problems (Meadows 2008, 4).
Systems are complex. Complexity refers to systems that have
outcomes which are indeterminate and cannot be predicted;
their behavior is nonlinear.
 The many systems which make up the larger Earth system are
known as complex adaptive systems (CAS).
• Their elements are interconnected, and it is not possible to
change one component of a complex adaptive system
without affecting other parts of the system, often in
unpredictable ways.
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Living in the Anthropocene
Geologists divide time on Earth into segments based on
physical characteristics of geology, climate, and life.
The Holocene was the 10,000-year epoch spanning all
of written human history until now, a time between ice
ages with a warm and unusually stable climate which
allowed civilization to develop.
These extraordinarily stable conditions made it possible
for population to expand, agriculture to appear, and
human cultures to arise and flourish.
 We live at the beginning of a new geological epoch
known as the Anthropocene, a time in which human
activity has become such a powerful force that it has
major, planet-scale impact on climate and on every
living system.
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Anthropocene Epoch
• The Anthropocene epoch is a proposed

geological epoch that is characterized by
the significant and lasting impact of human
activities on the Earth's geology and
ecosystems.
• The Anthropocene Epoch is an unofficial
unit of geologic time, used to describe the
most recent period in Earth's history when
human activity started to have a significant
impact on the planet's climate and
ecosystems
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-Planetary boundaries
Researchers defined planetary boundaries for nine interdependent areas of the global commons:
• climate change,
• biodiversity loss,
• excess nitrogen and phosphorus production,
• stratospheric ozone depletion,
• ocean acidification,
• freshwater consumption,
• land-use change,
• air pollution, and
• chemical pollution;
The researchers found that humanity has already exceeded the safe boundaries for the first three:
climate change, biodiversity loss, and nitrogen production
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-What problems do we have?
We face multiple, global-scale issues including food scarcity, aquifer depletion,
pollution, habitat destruction, extinction, depletion of renewable and nonrenewable
resources, climate destabilization, social inequity, failing states, growing control by
powerful corporate interests, and widening gaps between rich and poor.
A mass extinction is underway, with species disappearing at 1000 times the normal rate.
Storms and wildfires are growing, mountain glaciers are melting, sea level is rising, and
indications are that we may be approaching a climate-system tipping point.
Many of these issues are what are known as wicked problems, problems that are difficult
to solve because they are complex, interconnected, and continually evolving.
Behind them all lie two fundamental drivers: consumption, built on the economic growth
model, and human population growth.
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Understanding climate tipping points
As the planet warms, many parts of the Earth system are
undergoing large-scale changes. Ice sheets are shrinking, sea For example, a rise in global temperatures because of
levels are rising and coral reefs are dying off. fossil fuel burning, further down the line, triggers a
change like a rainforest becoming a dry savannah.
While climate records are being continuously broken, the This change is propelled by self-perpetuating
cumulative impact of these changes could also cause feedback loops, even if what was driving the change
fundamental parts of the Earth system to change dramatically. in the system stops. The system – in this case the
These ‘tipping points’ of climate change are critical thresholds forest – may remain ‘tipped’ even if the temperature
in that, if exceeded, can lead to irreversible consequences. falls below the threshold again.
This shift from one state to the other may take

What are climate tipping points?‫نقاط التحول المناخية‬ decades or even centuries to find a new, stable
state. But if tipping points are being crossed now, or
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change within the next decade, their full impact might not
(IPCC), tipping points are ‘critical thresholds in a system that, become apparent for hundreds or thousands of
when exceeded, can lead to a significant change in the state of years.
the system, often with an understanding that the change is
irreversible.’
https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Space_
for_our_climate/Understanding_climate_tipping_points
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Tipping points exist across the Earth system – the interconnected systems that support life
on this planet, including the cryosphere (ice-bound domains), biosphere (the living world),
ocean and atmosphere. It is often assumed that environmental systems respond relatively
linearly to human-driven pressures (such as climate change, habitat destruction and
pollution). However, in some systems, pressure beyond a threshold causes them to shift to
a very different state, often abruptly or irreversibly, as a result of self-sustaining feedbacks
– they pass a tipping point.
https://report-2023.global-tipping-points.org/section1/1-
earth-system-tipping-points/
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Historical transition
Humans have gone through several major transitions in their history:
• the discovery of fire,
• the development of language,
• the development of agriculture and civilization,
• and the Industrial Revolution.
 Today we live on the threshold of what has been called the “fifth great turning”, a turn away from
a fossil fuel-powered, climate-destabilizing, growth-based industrial economy and toward a
sustainable, regenerative society.
We live in a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene. The Holocene has apparently come to an
end, and humanity faces novel conditions it has not encountered before.
 The question is not whether we will change, but how, and what form the transition will take
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-How to avoid Ecological economist Herman Daly (1990) identified

four conditions for avoiding overshoot: In order to

• The Anthropocene epoch is a proposed

This shift from one state to the other may take

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