Lesson 7 Normal Distribution

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B IL IT Y

P R OB A
OR M A L
n 6 : N
Le s s o B U T ION
DISTRI
S. Sis on
y : Luc ila
db
Prepare
The Normal Probability Distribution
• Graph of the Normal Probability Density
Function
f (x )

µ x
The Normal Curve
• The shape of the normal curve is often illustrated
as a bell-shaped curve.

• The highest point on the normal curve is at the


mean of the distribution.

• The normal curve is symmetric.

• The standard deviation determines the width of


the curve.
The Normal Curve
• The total area under the curve the same as any
other probability distribution is 1.

• The probability of the normal random variable


assuming a specific value the same as any other
continuous probability distribution is 0.

• Probabilities for the normal random variable are


given by areas under the curve.
The Normal Probability Density Function

1 - ( x - µ ) 2 / 2s 2
f ( x) = e
s 2p
where
𝜇 = mean
𝜎 = standard deviation
𝜋 = 3.14159
e = 2.71828
Given any positive value for z, the table will give us the following
probability

The table will give this


probability

Given positive z

The probability that we find using the table is the


probability of having a standard normal variable between 0
and the given positive z.
Say z=0.83 then, the P(0 ≤ z ≤ 0.83) = 0.2947
Given z find the probability

z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879

.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2518 .2549
.7 .2580 .2612 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
Given any probability between 0 and .5,, the table will give us the
following positive z value

Given this probability between 0


and .5

The table will give us


this positive z

Given the probability, from the table we can determine the


value of z .
Say 𝑷(𝟎 ≤ 𝒛 ≤ 𝒛𝟏 ) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟗𝟔𝟕 then from table we get 𝒛𝟏 = 0.83
Given the probability find z
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879

.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2518 .2549
.7 .2580 .2612 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
What is the z value where probability of a standard
normal variable to be greater than z is .1

10%

40%

What is z ? if Area (or probability) to the right of z = 0.1


TABLE 1
Normal-Curve Areas

Z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09

Thus, when P(0 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 1.28) = 0.3997 ≈ 0.40, then 𝑃 𝑧 ≥ 1.28 = 0.1


10%

Z=1.28
Standard Normal Probability Distribution

• A random variable that has a normal distribution


with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of
one is said to have a standard normal probability
distribution.
• The letter z is commonly used to designate this
normal random variable.
• The following expression convert any Normal
Distribution into the Standard Normal
Distribution

x-µ
z=
s
STANDARD SCORE (Z-SCORE)

The standard score is the distance of the score from the mean
(𝑥)̅ in terms of the standard deviation (s). It tells how many
standard deviations the observed value (x) lies above or below
the mean of the distribution. The standard score is useful in
comparing observed values with different distributions. To be
able to find areas under the normal curve, observed values
must first be converted into standard scores, to solve
statistical problems.
To change an observed value (x) into standard score use the
equation:
𝒙−𝒙=
𝒛=
𝒔
where:
x = raw score/observed value
𝑥̅ = mean
s = standard deviation
Note: A positive (+) z-score means that the score/observed value is
above the mean.
A negative (–) z-score means that the score/observed value is below the
mean.
Examples
1. In a given distribution, the mean (𝑥)̅ is 65 and the standard
deviation (s) is 6. Find the corresponding standard score of:

a. 68 b. 59 c. 77 d. 47
was 10. Joseph scored 88 in Mathematics and 92 in English. In which subject was his
standing higher?
Solution
The first thing that has to be done is to change the scores into standard
scores.
2. In the final examination in Mathematics,
For English: For Mathematics:
the mean grade
was 82 and the standard deviation
92 � 86 88 � 82
was 8. In English, the
� � � 0.6 � � � 0.75
mean Usinggrade was
the�� areas 10
86 and the standard
under the normal cur ve,��the percentile8 deviation was 10.
ranking of a par ticular
Joseph scored
score can be His
found. 88 inin
Taking
standing No.2 Mathematics
as an example,
Mathematics, the was
therefore, and
student’s 92 his
higherz-score
than ininstanding
English.
English is 0.6, In
find the area to the He
in English. left was
of 0.6.
onlyFrom the table,deviation
0.6 standard the area above
from zthe= 0mean
(mean) to z = 0.6 is
in English
which subject
0.2257. Add
while was
thishetowas
the 0.75 his
area standardstanding
0.500 of the left side
deviation of higher?
above the
the cur ve.The
mean total area is equal to
in Mathematics.
0.7257. This implies that Joseph surpasses 72.57% of his classmates in English. To find his
percentile ranking, find the area0.7257
from and to the right of 0.6 by subtracting its’ area from
0.5 (area of the right of the cur ve). The remaining
0.2257 area is 0.2743. This means, he belongs
0.5 0.2743
to the upper 27.43rd percentile ranking.
Joseph’s score in Mathematics is 88 whose corresponding z-score is 0.75. Following
the procedures done to his score in English, his percentile ranking in Mathematics can be
determined. The area from and to the left of 0.75 is equal to 0.7734. This is done by adding
the area of the left side of the curve which is 0.5 and the area from 0 to 0.75 which is
0.2734. The area from–3and to–2the right
–1 of 0.75
0 .06is 0.2266.
1 2This is 3done by subtracting the
area from 0 to 0.75 which is 0.2734 from the area 0.500 of the right side of the curve.
The results imply that Joseph belongs to the upper 22.66% of his class in Mathematics. He,
ENGLISH
therefore, surpasses 77.34% of his classmates in Mathematics test.
252 Basic Statistics with Business and Nursing Applications
0.7734

0.2734
0.5 0.2266
Book 1.indb 252 11/16/08 3:42:11 PM

–3 –2 –1 0 .075 1 2 3

MATHEMATICS

8.5 APPLICATIONS OF THE NORMAL CURVE


Frequencies of scores in a distribution can be found using the normal curve. Several
problems on the different fields can be solved by applying the normal curve.
37 � 30
b. �37 � �1.40
�� 5
Hence, the corresponding z-score of 37 is 1.40.
Application
28 � 30
of Normal
34 � 30
Distribution
c. � 28 � � �0.40 �34 � � 0.80
�� 5 5

1. If The
scores are normally
corresponding z-scores ofdistributed withand
28 and 34 are –0.40 a mean of 30 and
0.8 respectively. Note athe
standard deviation
z-scores of raw scores thatof
are5,higher
what percent
than the mean of
arethe scores
positive (+) andis:
the z-scores
a.ofequal
raw scores
or that are lower
greater than 30?
than the mean are negative (–)
b.a. equal
To findor
thegreater
percent ofthan
scores37?
that is equal or greater than 30, find the area from
c. from
and to28
theto 34?
right of z = 0. Since z = 0 is the center of the cur ve, (0 represents the
mean of the distribution) scores that are greater than the mean are located on the
right side of the cur ve. The area of the right side of the cur ve is 0.50 or 50%, which
Solution
means that 50% of the scores are greater than 30.
a.

0.5 = 50%

–3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 ← z-score
x = 30 ← raw score

b. To find the percent of the scores that is equal or greater than 37, find the area from
and to the right of z = 1.40 (z = 1.40 is the z-score of 37).
b. To find the percent of the scores that is equal or greater than 37, find the area from
and to the right of z = 1.40 (z = 1.40 is the z-score of 37).
To find the area from and to the right of 1.40, subtract its area from 0.50.
b.
0.5 = 50%
0.4192 0.808
0.5000
– 0.4192
0.0808 or 8.08%

–3 –2 –1 0 1 1.4 2 3 ← z-score
30 37 ← raw score

c. To find the percent of scores from 28 to 34, find the normal curve area from the z-
score The
of 28area
which
fromis and
equal
to to
the–0.40
right and
of z the z-score
= 1.40 of 34orwhich
is 0.808 8.08%.isThis
equal to 0.80,
means that by
adding
8.08%the twoscores
of the areas.are equal or greater than 37.
c.
0.4435
254 Basic Statistics with Business and Nursing Applications
0.1554 0.2881

0.1554
+ 0.2881
0.4435 or 44.35%
Book 1.indb 254 11/16/08 3:42:14 PM

–3 –2 –1 –0.4 0 0.8 1 2 3 ← z-score


28 30 34 ← raw score

The total area is, therefore, 0.4435. This means the 44.35% of the scores is from 28
to 34.
Solution
Given that the mean ( ) is equal to 100 and the standard deviation (s)
is equal to 15
a. findhundred
2.Two of 80 using
the z-scoreeighty (280) incoming freshmen at a
certain College were � �given IQ tests.
80 �100
Assuming that their � � IQs � are normally
� �1.33 distributed with a
�� 15
mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15, find how
many freshmen
Since 80 is have an IQ
lower than theof:
mean and its corresponding standard
a. 80score
andislower
negative (–), we can say that it is located from and to the left
sideand
b. 105 of thehigher
normal curve. Therefore, 80 is 1.33 standard deviations below
the mean.90
c. between Scores
to 105equal and lower than 80 are, hence, located from and
to the left of 80.

0.5 = 50%

0.0918 0.4082
0.5000
– 0.4082
0.0918 or 9.18%

–3 –2 –1.33 –1 0 1 2 3 ← z-score

Chapter 8: Normal Distribution 255


�105 � � 0.33
�� 15

The 105 is 0.33 standard deviation higher than the mean. It is located
at the right side of the cur ve. Therefore, IQ scores equal and higher than
100 are from and to the right side of 0.33.
.
0.5 = 50%
0.1293
0.3707
0.5000 150 and above
– 0.1293
0.3707 or 37.07%

–3 –2 –1 0 0.33 1 2 3 ← z-score
The –0.67 is located at the 100
left105
side
of the curve and 0.33
← raw scoreis on the

right side. Add the two areas to find the propor tion of freshmen who
haveSubtract
IQs fromthe
90 area
to 105.
from z = 0 to z = 0.33 (0.1293) from the area
of the right side of the cur ve (0.5). The difference is 0.3707 or 37.07%.
Multiply this difference to 280 to get the actual number of freshmen who
0.3779
have IQs of 105 and above. 0.2486 0.1293

0.2486
(0.3707)(280)
+ 0.1283
= 103.8 ≈ 104 (rounded off to a whole number)
0.3779 or 37.79%
Hence, 104 students have IQ5 105 and above.

c. find the z-score corresponding from 90 and 105


From our earlier
–3 solution,
–2 we
–1 obtained
–0.67 0 0.33 z1105 = 0.33
2 using
3 ← z-score

� 90
� 100 105 ← raw score
��
��
The total area is, thus, 0.3779 or 37.79. This means that 37.79% of
Computehave
the freshmen the corresponding
IQs from 90 toz-score of 90,ofas280
105. 37.79% follows:
is equal to 105.81
Example: Pep Zone
Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies including
multi-grade motor oil. When the stock of this oil
drops to 20 gallons, a replenishment order is
placed.
The store manager is concerned that sales are
being lost due to stockouts while waiting for an
order.
It has been determined that lead time demand is
normally distributed with a mean of 15 gallons
and a standard deviation of 6 gallons.
The manager would like to know the probability of a
stockout, P(x > 20).
Standard Normal Distribution
(x − 𝝁 )
z= 𝝈
(20 − 15)
= 𝟔

= .83

Area = .5
z
0 .83
Example: Pep Zone
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879

.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2518 .2549
.7 .2580 .2612 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
The Probability of Demand Exceeding 20

Area = .2967

Area = .2033

Area = .5
z
0 .83
The Standard Normal table shows an area of .2967
for the region between the z = 0 line and the z = .83
line above. The shaded tail area is .5 - .2967 = .2033.
The probability of a stockout is .2033.
Example: Pep Zone
If the manager of Pep Zone wants the probability of a
stockout to be no more than .05, what should the
reorder point be?

Area = .05

Area = .5 Area = .45


0 z.05

Let z.05 represent the z value cutting the tail area of .05.
Example: Pep Zone
• Using the Standard Normal Probability Table
We now look-up the .4500 area in the Standard Normal
Probability table to find the corresponding z.05 value.
z.05 = 1.645 is a reasonable estimate.

z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
.
1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394 .4406 .4418 .4429 .4441
1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 .4505 .4515 .4525 .4535 .4545
1.7 .4554 .4564 .4573 .4582 .4591 .4599 .4608 .4616 .4625 .4633
1.8 .4641 .4649 .4656 .4664 .4671 .4678 .4686 .4693 .4699 .4706
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
.
Example: Pep Zone

The corresponding value of x is given by


x = 𝝁 + z.05 𝝈
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87
A reorder point of 24.87 gallons will place the
probability of a stockout during lead time at .05.
Perhaps Pep Zone should set the reorder point
at 25 gallons to keep the probability under .05.
Example: Aptitude Test

A firm has assumed that the distribution of the aptitude test of


people applying for a job in this firm is normal.
The following sample is available.

71 66 61 65 54 93
60 86 70 70 73 73
55 63 56 62 76 54
82 79 76 68 53 58
85 80 56 61 61 64
65 62 90 69 76 79
77 54 64 74 65 65
61 56 63 80 56 71
79 84
Example: Mean and Standard Deviation

We first need to estimate mean and standard


deviation

x=
å x i
=
3421
= 68.42
n 50

s=
å ( x - x ) 2

=
5310.04
= 10.41
n -1 49
z Values

What test mark has the property of having 10% of


test marks being less than or equal to it

To answer this question, we should first answer the


following
What is the standard normal value (z value), such
that 10% of z values are less than or equal to it?

10%
z Values
We need to use standard Normal distribution

10%

10%
z Values

10%

40%
z Values

40%

z = 1.28

10%

z = - 1.28
z Values and x Values

The standard normal value (z value), such that 10% of z values are less
than or equal to it is z = -1.28
To transform this standard normal value to a similar value in our
example, we use the following relationship
x -μ
=z
σ
x - 68.42
= -1.28
10.41
x = 10.41( -1.28 ) + 68.42 = 55.1

The normal value of test marks such that 10% of random


variables are less than it is 55.1.
z Values and x Values

Following the same procedure, we could find z values for


cases where 20%, 30%, 40%, …of random variables are less
than these values. Following the same procedure, we could
transform z values into x values.

x-µ
=z
s
Lower 10% -1.28 55.1
Lower 20% -.84 59.68
Lower 30% -.52 63.01
Lower 40% -.25 65.82
Lower 50% 0.0 68.42
Lower 60% .25 71.02
Example : Victor Computers

Victor Computers manufactures and sells a


general purpose microcomputer. As part of a study to
evaluate sales personnel, management wants to determine
if the annual sales volume (number of units sold by a
salesperson) follows a normal probability distribution.

A simple random sample of 30 of the salespeople was


taken and their numbers of units sold are below.
33 43 44 45 52 52 56 58 63 64
64 65 66 68 70 72 73 73 74 75
83 84 85 86 91 92 94 98 102 105
(mean = 71, standard deviation = 18.54)
Partition this Normal distribution into 6 equal probability parts
Example : Victor Computers

Areas
= 1.00/6
= .1667

53.02 71 88.98 = 71 + .97(18.54)


63.03 78.97
A. Find the values of the following areas under the normal curve which lie:
1. From z = –0.63 to z = 0.63
2. From z = –0.84 to z = 1.23
3. From z = –0.42 to z = –1.0
4. from z = –1.23 to z = 2.23
5. and to the right of z = –2.18
6. and to the left of z = –1.30
7. and to the right of z = –1.75
B. Solve the following problem:
1. A normal distribution has a mean (𝑥)̅ equal, to 200. If 70% of the area
under the curve lies from and to the left of 220, find:
a. the area from and to the left of 200
b. the area from and to the right of 200
c. standard deviation
d. the area from 200 to 225

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