Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

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Results in Engineering
journal homepage: www.sciencedirect.com/journal/results-in-engineering

“Evaluating the impact of climate change on drought risk in semi-arid

region using GIS technique”
Rinali Patel , Anant Patel *
Civil Engineering Department, Institute of Technology, Nirma University, Ahmedabad, 382481, Gujarat, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This GIS study examines how climate change affects drought risk in semi-arid regions. Semi-arid regions are
Drought risk especially vulnerable to droughts due to rising global temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. The
GIS technology study analyses drought trends using diverse dataset, including climate projections, geographical information, and
LULC
environmental parameters. The study incorporated temperature, precipitation, and moisture data, alongside land
Climate change
AHP
cover, soil type, and land usage information. Sabarmati River Basin residents and ecosystems need drought
management and adaptation. We studied climate change using temperature, precipitation, and moisture data.
Plant cover, soil type, and land usage indicated regional drought. GIS, meteorological, and environmental data
projected drought. Drought risk model includes LULC, VCI, LST, SMI, and NDDI by integrating all parameters
such as LULC, NDVI, Rainfall, etc. all meteorological and environmental data using GIS. Climate and land use
changes increased drought risk in the study region. GIS-based drought indices and risk assessment models
quantify and map drought intensity, frequency, and duration under different climate change scenarios. The
results help semi-arid regions develop adaptive drought risk management strategies. This interdisciplinary
approach emphasises the ability of GIS for assessing and mitigating climate-induced drought occurrences.

1. Introduction 1970s to the early 2000 [6–9].

In many parts of the world, climate change increases the likelihood
1.1. General of a worsening drought, making it a significant risk to the environment,
agriculture, and human livelihoods [10–12]. This study aims to assess
Drought, a menacing and complex environmental phenomenon, re­ climate change’s effects on semi-arid regions’ risk of drought using GIS
fers to a prolonged period of below-average precipitation and reduced techniques [13–15]. The study will give a comprehensive understanding
water availability that can cause devastating impacts on various sectors, of the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk in the region, which can
including agriculture, water resources, and human society. Drought be used to develop effective drought risk management plans. In
events are caused by a several kinds of causes, including natural vari­ semi-arid and arid regions, drought is an ever-present threat to the
ability in climate, anthropogenic activities, and their synergistic in­ sustainability of local communities and ecosystems [16–18]. By utilizing
teractions. Drought risk is not only due to meteorological but also due to the GIS technique, this research study aims to give an accurate appraisal
socio-economic and technological and also agricultural changes [1,2]. of the risk of drought in semi-arid regions, highlighting the critical role
The severity of drought’s effects on different systems and regions hinges of technological advancements in addressing complex environmental
on factors such as the duration and severity of the drought situation, the issues [19–21].
adaptive capacity of the affected systems, and the efficacy of drought A thorough GIS approach to the processing of data and drought risk
management strategies [3–5]. One third of the world’s population lives assessment. With ArcGIS software, Geographic Information System
in area with water shortages, and 1.1 billion people lack access to safe (GIS) techniques were put into practice. To create an extensive knowl­
drinking water. Globally, drought (7.5 %) is the second-most edge of the study area, spatial data integration required overlaying land-
geographically extensive hazard after floods (11 %) of the earth’s land use, hydrological, and climate projection datasets [22]. Various spatial
area. The percent of area affected by serious drought has doubled from interpolation methods, such as kriging, were applied to synchronise

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (A. Patel).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2024.101957
Received 16 January 2024; Received in revised form 21 February 2024; Accepted 26 February 2024
Available online 1 March 2024
2590-1230/© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

disparate datasets. In order to integrate various factors, including Land 2. Study Area
Use/Land Cover (LULC), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Land Sur­
face Temperature (LST), Soil Moisture Index (SMI), and Normalized The Sabarmati River basin is situated in the western part of India,
Difference Drought Index (NDDI), the risk analysis included the devel­ between 70◦ 58′ and 73◦ 51′ E longitudes and 22◦ 15′ and 24◦ 47′ N
opment of GIS-based drought indices. Through processing and spatial latitudes. The Sabarmati basin, which spans the states of Rajasthan and
analysis, these indices were used to create a thorough assessment of the Gujarat, has a maximum length and width of 21,674 square kilometres.
risk of drought. This study’s use of GIS techniques provides a thorough Sabarmati River is a significant source of water for the city’s various
and spatially explicit assessment of how climate change affects the risk sectors and flows approximately 20–22 km across the centre of the city
of drought in semi-arid regions [23]. from north to south as shown in Fig. 1.
In the natural environment cycle, a prolonged dry spell that can Geography and Climate: The region is known for its semi-arid
occur anywhere in the world is called a drought. It is a disaster that climate, with an average annual precipitation of around 800 mm. The
comes on gradually and is characterized by a dearth of precipitation that terrain is characterized by a mix of flat plains, hills, and plateaus, and
results in a shortage of water [24,23]. Drought can have a disastrous the region is home to a number of important wildlife reserves, including
effect on people’s health, agriculture, the economy, energy, and the the Little Rann of Kutch and the Gir National Park [23].
environment. Around 55 million people are reportedly affected by River System: The Sabarmati River is the main river in the basin,
droughts each year, which are the biggest threat to livestock and crops in with a total length of around 371 km. It originates in the Aravalli Range
almost every region of the world [25–28]. People are in danger, disease and flows through several major cities, including Ahmedabad, before
and death risk are raised, and mass migration is sparked by drought. eventually emptying into the Arabian Sea. The river is fed by several
Water scarcity affects 40% of the world’s population, and by 2030, 700 tributaries, including the Wakal, Meshwo, Hathmati, and Shedhi rivers
million people may need to leave their homes due to a drought [29–32]. [40]. Challenges: The Sabarmati River basin area faces a number of
The Sabarmati River basin area is situated in the western part of challenges, including water scarcity, drought, and soil erosion. Rapid
India, state of Gujarat and approximately 21,674 square kilometres in urbanization and industrialization have put additional pressure on the
extent. The region is recognised for its steppe climate and is susceptible region’s water resources, and climate change is expected to exacerbate
to droughts, particularly during the summer months when rainfall is these challenges in the future. Research Areas: Some of the research
scarce. In recent years, the Sabarmati River basin area has experienced a areas that could be explored in the Sabarmati River basin area include
number of droughts due to insufficient rainfall, resulting in water scar­ water management and conservation, sustainable agriculture, climate
city and crop failure [33–35]. The situation has been exacerbated by change adaptation, and wildlife conservation.
factors such as rapid urbanization, unsustainable water uses practices,
and climate change. To deal with the drought and lack of water issues, 3. Methodology
the government of Gujarat has implemented various measures,
including the construction of the Sabarmati Riverfront Development Drought is a natural hazard that can cause significant social, eco­
Project, which aims to conserve water resources and improve water nomic, and environmental damage. Drought risk mapping can help
supply for the region [36–38]. Additionally, the government has intro­ decision-makers to pinpoint the most susceptible regions to drought and
duced policies to promote sustainable water use practices and encourage take proactive measures to mitigate its effects. The Analytic Hierarchy
the use of alternative water sources such as rainwater harvesting and Process is a widely used multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tech­
groundwater recharge. Overall, while the situation in the Sabarmati nique that can help to determine the relative significance of different
River basin area remains challenging, there are ongoing efforts to deal factors that contribute to drought risk. The first step in an AHP-based
the impacts of drought and improve water management practices in the drought risk mapping methodology is to identify the criteria that are
region [39]. relevant to drought risk [41–43]. These might include factors such as
The challenging climate situation in semi-arid regions can be climate, soil moisture, land use, and socioeconomic conditions. Each
observed by high rates of evaporation combined with low and infre­ criterion is then broken down into a series of sub-criteria, which can be
quent precipitation, which creates a vulnerable water balance. These weighted according to their relative importance. Next, decision-makers
regions are more susceptible to drought events since they frequently must identify the alternatives that they want to evaluate. In the context
endure protracted dry spells [40]. Because semi-arid regions have less of drought risk mapping, these might include different geographic re­
water resources available to them, even small deviations from normal gions or areas of land use. Each alternative is then evaluated against the
precipitation patterns have a greater impact, making them more criteria and sub-criteria using a pairwise comparison process. During the
vulnerable to drought-related problems. Agriculture, the availability of pairwise comparison process, decision-makers are asked to compare
water, and biodiversity are all impacted by the socioeconomic effects of each pair of sub-criteria and find out which one is more significant [44].
semi-arid regions’ fragile ecosystems. Particularly in regard to climate Fig. 2 shows the flowchart of methodology.
change, the complex patterns of drought risk require comprehensive The results are then entered into a matrix, which is used to calculate
assessments, which are crucial given the complex relationship of cli­ the relative weights of the sub-criteria. Once the sub-criteria have been
matic variables in these regions [41]. weighted, decision-makers can evaluate the alternatives against each
The primary objectives of this research paper are to identify the areas criterion. This involves assigning a score to each alternative based on its
in the semi-arid region that are affected by drought and to develop a performance against the sub-criteria. The scores are then weighted ac­
drought hazard map of the Sabarmati River basin. The study will utilize cording to the relative importance of each sub-criterion and aggregated
remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques to to give an overall score for each alternative. Finally, decision-makers can
analyze data from various sources such as satellite imagery, meteoro­ use the results of the AHP analysis [45] to create a drought risk map.
logical data, and ground-based observations. Through this analysis, the This involves overlaying the scores for each alternative onto a map and
research aims to identify areas that are vulnerable to drought and to identifying areas that are most vulnerable to drought. Decision-makers
assess the severity of drought conditions in different parts of the river can use this information to prioritize areas for drought risk manage­
basin. The development of a drought hazard map will help in identifying ment and identify appropriate interventions to reduce the impact of
the areas that are most at risk, which will facilitate targeted in­ drought. In conclusion, an AHP-based drought risk mapping method­
terventions aimed at mitigating the impact of drought on communities ology is a useful tool for decision-makers to determine the relative sig­
and the environment. The ultimate objective of this research is to pro­ nificance of different factors that contribute to drought risk. By using
vide valuable insights that can inform policy decisions and support the this methodology, decision-makers can Identify the region’s most sus­
development of effective drought management strategies in the region. ceptible to drought and take proactive measures to mitigate its effects.

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R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

Fig. 1. Study Area map of sabarmati river basin.

3.1. Identify the criteria as population density, income level, and access to water resources,
Infrastructure-related factors such as water supply systems, reservoirs,
The criteria for drought risk mapping can vary depending on the and dams, Disaster preparedness and response factors such as emer­
context and the specific needs of the decision-makers. However, some gency response plans and the availability of resources.
common criteria that are often used in the AHP-based drought risk Different 10 criteria were decided to prepare the drought risk map
mapping methodology includes Climate-related factors such as precip­ including Elevation, Slope, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), Normalized
itation, temperature, and evapotranspiration, Soil-related factors such Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Drought
as soil moisture, soil type, and soil texture [46]. Index (NDDI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Soil Mois­
Vegetation-related factors such as land cover, vegetation type, and ture Index (SMI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Population Density,
vegetation density, Land use-related factors such as agricultural prac­ Land Surface Temperature (LST).
tices, irrigation methods, and urbanization, Socioeconomic factors such

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R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

Fig. 2. Flowchart of the methodology.

Fig. 3. Data collection process.

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R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

3.2. Data collection any permission. And all the platform are mentioned in above Table 1.

The collection of data processes as shown in Fig. 3 for this study 3.2.4. WorldPop
involved a comprehensive literature review, identifying relevant data WorldPop is a project that provides high-resolution population
sources, developing a data collection plan, collecting both secondary density maps for various countries around the world. The population
and primary data and managing the collected data. The collected data density map from WorldPop provides a detailed picture of the distri­
will be analyzed using GIS techniques to assess the effect of climate bution of population in a particular region or country [22]. The map is
change on drought risk in the study area. The results of this study will generated using a combination of satellite imagery, census data, and
advance knowledge of how climate change affects the likelihood of other data sources. The map provides information on the number of
drought in semi-arid regions and aid in the development of suitable people living in a particular area per square kilometre. Worldpop is
adaptation strategies to lessen the effects of droughts. For the prepara­ freely accessible platform to get population data to obtained population
tion of various thematic layers, different data sources were taken into density map.
consideration and collected data from various sources such as Digital
Elevation Model (DEM), Landsat Satellite Images, Rainfall Data, and
other Climatic Datasets for generating different index map which are 3.3. Preparation of thematic layers
required for this study such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI), Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI), Normalized To prepare a drought risk map, various thematic layers need to be
Difference Water Index (NDWI), Soil Moisture Index (SMI), Vegetation generated and analyzed. These layers provide information on various
Condition Index (VCI) [47–49]. environmental and socio-economic factors that can influence drought
risk. In this write-up, we will discuss the preparation of 10 thematic
3.2.1. Digital elevation model (DEM) layers, including elevation, rainfall, land use/land cover, NDVI, NDDI,
ASTER (The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection NDWI, SMI, LST, VCI, and population density.
Radiometer) is a satellite instrument that collects high-resolution images Elevation is an important factor that can influence drought risk.
of Earth’s surface. The ASTER Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a Areas at higher elevations are generally cooler and receive more pre­
product that provides accurate elevation data of Earth’s surface. The cipitation than areas at lower elevations. To prepare the elevation layer,
first step in the data collection process is to select the study area. The digital elevation models (DEMs) can be used. The DEMs provide infor­
study region should be within the coverage of the ASTER satellite and mation on the elevation of the terrain, which can be used to create a
should have clear weather conditions during data acquisition [23]. The digital elevation model. Rainfall is a key factor that can influence
next step is to acquire ASTER data for the study area. ASTER data is drought risk. To prepare the rainfall layer, rainfall data can be obtained
freely available on various online platforms such as Earth Explorer, from meteorological departments or satellite-based rainfall estimations.
GloVis, and ASTER GDEM website. The ASTER data requires The data can be processed and interpolated to create a continuous
pre-processing before it can be used to create a DEM. The pre-processing rainfall surface for the study area. LULC is an important factor that can
includes radiometric calibration, atmospheric correction, and influence drought risk. Different land use types have different levels of
geo-referencing of the images. This can be done using specialized soft­ vegetation cover, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration rates. To
ware such as ERDAS Imagine, ENVI, or ArcGIS. The final stage in the
data collection is to generate the DEM. ASTER DEM utilized in this study Table 1
were obtained freely from NASA’s Earth data platform. Detail information about datasets.
Primary Source Resolution References
3.2.2. Landsat satellite image data
Landsat 8 is a satellite that provides images of the surface of earth in Satellite Landsat-8 USGS Earth 30 m https://eart
different spectral bands. These images can be used for a wide range of Image Explorer hexplorer.
uses, such as environmental monitoring, Land use monitoring and usgs.gov/
Sentinel-2 Copernicus Open 10 m https://scih
planning, Agriculture and forestry management, Water resource man­
Hub ub.copernic
agement, Natural disaster assessment and management, Climate change us.eu/
research and monitoring. Landsat 8 collects images in 11 spectral bands, DEM ASTER Earth Explorer 30 m https://eart
which cover a broad spectrum of wavelengths, ranging from visible to USGS hexplorer.
thermal infrared. Land use Land cover, as Normalized Difference usgs.gov/
SRTM Earth Explorer 30 m https://eart
Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI),
USGS hexplorer.
Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) maps can be prepared by usgs.gov/
using this satellite image [22]. Landsat datasets used in this research is ALOS Earth Data 12.5 m https://www.
freely available from earth explorer or from GloVis website platform PALSAR earthdata.
also. nasa.gov/
CARTOSAT National Remote 30 m https://bh
Sensing Centre uvan.nrsc.
3.2.3. Indian meteorological department (IMD) (NRSC) gov.in/
Rainfall data is one of the most important parameters for the Rainfall Cru-Data High-resolution 0.5*0.5◦ https://cru
computation of drought risk. The Indian Meteorological Department Data gridded datasets data.uea.ac.
uk/
(IMD) provides rainfall data for various regions in India. The IMD col­
CHRS Data CHRS Data Portal 0.25*0.25◦ https://ch
lects rainfall data through a network of rain gauge stations located rsdata.eng.
across the country. The rain gauge stations are located in different re­ uci.edu/
gions, ranging from high-altitude mountainous regions to coastal areas. IMD Indian 0.25*0.25◦ https://m
The data collected from these stations is then used to generate rainfall Meteorological ausam.imd.
Department gov.in/
maps for different regions. The IMD also uses remote sensing techniques, Population Population WorldPop Data 100 m https://www.
such as satellite imagery, to estimate rainfall in areas where rain gauge Data Density Portal worldpop.
stations are not available. The satellite data is processed using algo­ org/
rithms to estimate rainfall over a particular region. For rainfall data DIVA GIS – https://www.
diva-gis.org/
there are various platform which gives freely precipitation data without

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R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

prepare the LULC layer, satellite imagery can be categorized into significance of various drought risk criteria. Using a Saaty scale, experts
different land use types using supervised or unsupervised classification effectively compared each pair of criteria, allocating values according to
techniques [47,48]. their perceived significance. The scale gives a quantitative foundation
Population density is an important socio-economic factor that can for comparison, ranging from 1 (equal importance) to 9(extremely more
influence drought risk. Regions with high population density are more important) [54]. A pairwise comparison matrix was then created using
vulnerable to droughts as they rely heavily on water resources for their the comparisons. Priority weights for each criterion were determined by
daily needs. To prepare the population density layer, census data or normalizing the matrix using the eigenvector method and consistency
satellite-derived population density data can be used. Normalized Dif­ ratio calculations. The criteria were then aggregated using these
ference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a remote sensing-derived index that weights, enabling a more accurate and defensible assessment of their
provides information on vegetation cover and biomass. influence on the overall drought risk assessment.
Saaty’s table as shown in Table 2, also known as the Analytic Hier­
3.4. Assigning rank and determine the weights using AHP method archy Process (AHP), is a useful tool for decision-makers in developing a
drought risk map. As shown in Table 3, by identifying the criteria that
The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) [11,12] is a decision-making contribute to drought risk, AHP can help prioritize interventions and
methodology proposed by Thomas Saaty. It is a tool for multi-criteria strategies to mitigate the impact of drought. The pairwise comparison
decision-making that aids in prioritising and ranking options accord­ and normalization steps enable the identification of the most critical
ing to a number of criteria. A complex decision problem is dissected factors that contribute to drought risk, which can guide targeted in­
using the AHP method into a hierarchy of criteria and sub-criteria. The terventions [55].
decision maker then compares each criterion and sub-criterion pairwise The AHP can also be used for comparison of the relative effectiveness
on a scale of 1–5, where 1 denotes equal importance and 5 denotes of different interventions or strategies to reduce drought risk, providing
extreme importance, to determine their relative weight. The pairwise a basis for evidence-based decision-making. Overall, the AHP provides a
comparison involves comparing each criterion against every other cri­ structured approach for developing drought risk maps that can be used
terion in the same level of the hierarchy. After the pairwise comparisons to inform policy and decision-making in the face of climate change [56,
are completed, the AHP method calculates the priority weights for each 57].
criterion and sub-criterion using mathematical formulas. The relative The identification of areas in the semi-arid region that are at the
weights of each criterion and sub-criterion in the decision-making pro­ highest risk of drought under climate change scenarios. A quantification
cess are represented by the priority weights [49]. Computations are of the changes in drought risk under different climate change scenarios,
made to determine the consistency index and consistency ratio using including changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, vegetation
Eqs. (1) and (2). cover, and land use. A study of the elements raising the semi-arid re­
gion’s risk of drought, including natural factors (e.g., climate variability)
λmax − n and human factors (e.g., land use change) [57]. The development of a
CI = (1)
n GIS-based tool that can be used to monitor and assess drought risk in the
CI semi-arid region under different climate change scenarios. Recommen­
CR = (2) dations for policymakers, resource managers, and surrounding com­
RI
munities on how to eliminate the semi-arid region’s risk of drought as a
Where, CI is the consistency index, RI is the random ratio and CR is the result of climate change [58–61].
consistency ratio, n is the no. of conditioning factor and λ is the eigen
value of matrix [50–52]. 4. Result and discussion
The formulation of the final drought risk map involved a systematic
process of weighting and scoring different drought risk criteria. Criteria The outcomes of our study revealed significant changes in drought
such as climate variables, land cover, soil moisture, and socio-economic risk across the Sabarmati River Basin falls under the predominantly dry
factors were identified and assigned relative weights through expert region under different climate change scenarios. Based on our drought
consultation and literature review. After normalizing the data, each risk mapping analysis using GIS techniques, we found that areas in the
criterion was scored based on observed values, considering the degree of south-western and northern parts of the region were particularly
influence on drought risk. Following that, a combined rating repre­ vulnerable to drought, with high levels of exposure to drought hazards
senting the overall drought risk for each location was developed by and limited adaptive capacity. Our analysis also identified a number of
adding the weighted scores for each individual criterion. A spatially
stated drought risk map was created possible by this comprehensive
strategy, which included expert input and quantitative analysis. The Table 2
map’s different shades correspond to different risk levels throughout the Saaty’s scale table.
research region. Intensity of Definition Explanation
To create a drought risk map, the AHP, an effective multi-criteria importance
decision-making technique, can be used. The AHP method involves 1 Equal importance Two activities contribute equally to
breaking down a complex decision problem into smaller, more the objective
manageable components, and then synthesizing the results to provide an 3 Weak importance of one Experience and judgement slightly
overall ranking of alternatives. To create a drought risk map using the over another favour one activity over another
5 Essential or strong Experience and judgement strongly
AHP method, first need to identify the criteria that are important in importance favour one activity over another
assessing the risk of drought in a particular area. Once criteria have been 7 Demonstrated importance An activity is strongly favoured and
decided, we can assign weights to each criterion based on its relative its dominance demonstrated in
significance. Finally, AHP method is used to synthesize the results and practice
9 Absolute importance The evidence favouring one
create a drought risk map. This involves combining the scores for each
activity over another is of the
criterion and weighting them according to their relative importance. highest possible order of
The result is a ranked list of alternatives, with the areas at highest risk of affirmation
drought receiving the highest scores [53]. 2,4,6,8 Intermediate values When compromise is needed
The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) pairwise comparison pro­ between two adjacent
judgements
cess involves obtaining expert opinions to determine the relative

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Table 3
Assigned Weightage using AHP Method.
Sr. No. Criteria Unit Classes Risk Probability Class Ratings

1. Elevation m 0–3.6945 Very High 5

3.6945–8.1808 High 4
8.1808–15.3061 Moderate 3
15.3061–25.5982 Low 2
25.5982–67.2944 Very Low 1
2. Rainfall mm/year 162.80–332.03 Very High 5
332.03–441.03 High 4
441.03–555.77 Moderate 3
555.77–656.16 Low 2
656.16–894.24 Very Low 1
3. Population Density Per km2 0.14–12.17 Very Low 1
12.17–102.39 Low 2
102.39–244.74 Moderate 3
244.74–355.01 High 4
355.01–511.40 Very High 5
4. LULC Level Water Very Low 1
Vegetation Low 2
Agriculture Moderate 3
Barren Land High 4
Settlement Area Very High 5
5. NDVI Level (-0.419)- (0.052) Very High 5
0.052–0.124 High 4
0.124–0.179 Moderate 3
0.179–0.259 Low 2
0.259–0.598 Very Low 1
6. NDDI Level (-0.663) -(-0.070) Very High 5
(-0.070) -(-0.025) High 4
(-0.025) - (0.029) Moderate 3
(0.029)–(0.113) Low 2
(0.113)–(0.401) Very Low 1
7. NDWI Level (-0.993) -(-0.475) Very High 5
(-0.475) -(-0.236) High 4
(-0.236) -(-0.135) Moderate 3
(-0.135) -(-0.096) Low 2
(-0.096) -(0.117) Very Low 1
8. SMI Level (-0.908) -(0.265) Very High 5
(0.265)–(0.386) High 4
(0.386)–(0.499) Moderate 3
(0.499)–(0.649) Low 2
(0.649)–(1.011) Very Low 1
9. VCI Level 0–20.00000153 Very High 5
20.00000154–40.00000305 High 4
40.00000306–60.00000458 Moderate 3
60.00000459–80.0000061 Low 2
80.00000611–100.0000076 Very Low 1
10. LST Level 60.770–68.113 Very Low 1
68.113–71.023 Low 2
71.023–73.656 Moderate 3
73.656–82.662 High 4
82.662–96.102 Very High 5

key drivers of increased drought risk, including changes in temperature A Land Use Land Cover (LULC) map (Fig. 4) is a thematic map that
and precipitation patterns, land use change, and vegetation cover. These shows how different land use and land cover types are distributed
findings have important implications for policymakers and resource spatially in a particular area. It is a valuable tool for analyzing and
managers, as they highlight the urgent need for more targeted and understanding the interactions between human activities and the envi­
effective drought management strategies in these vulnerable regions. ronment. When it comes to drought risk mapping, LULC maps are
Furthermore, our GIS-based tool provides a valuable resource for particularly useful as they provide information on the distribution and
ongoing monitoring and assessment of drought risk under different characteristics of different land cover types, such as agricultural land,
climate change scenarios, which can inform more proactive and effec­ forests, wetlands, and urban areas. By overlaying this information with
tive adaptation measures in the future. other relevant data such as rainfall, temperature, and soil types, it is
Elevation maps are a key input for drought risk mapping using GIS possible to recognize regions that are particularly vulnerable to drought.
techniques. Elevation data is used to create digital elevation models Rainfall maps (Fig. 4) are typically created using data from weather
(DEMs) that represent the topography of a study area. By analyzing the stations, satellites, or a combination of both. These data sources are used
elevation data, GIS software can identify areas that are more likely to to create a gridded dataset that represents the study area’s spatial dis­
experience drought conditions, such as areas that are at a higher tribution of rainfall. The rainfall data can then be combined with other
elevation or those that are in rain shadow areas. Areas at higher eleva­ environmental data, such as soil moisture, vegetation cover, and land
tions may be more prone to drought because they typically receive less use, to produce comprehensive drought risk maps. Drought risk map­
precipitation than low-lying areas. In contrast, areas in valleys or near ping using rainfall data can help identify areas that are most susceptible
water sources may have a lower risk of drought because they have access to drought and determine how severe the conditions are.
to water resources that can mitigate the effects of drought. Statistical techniques like Pearson or Spearman correlation

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R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

Fig. 4. Rainfall map, population density, LULC map.

coefficients is used in the correlation analysis between precipitation and been found to be particularly susceptible to drought events because of
NDVI. However, a more thorough investigation of this correlation might the increased demand for water, which puts further strain on the
be taken into consideration in our future work due to the restricted scope available supplies. Adaptive capacity is also influenced by socioeco­
of the current study. nomic factors associated with population density, such as resource
Population density data is used to create spatially explicit maps that accessibility.
represent the distribution of human populations across a study area. By NDVI maps are based on the principle that healthy vegetation illus­
analyzing population density data, GIS software can identify areas that trates more near-infrared light and absorbs more visible light. By
are more vulnerable to drought conditions, such as areas with high comparing the amount of reflected near-infrared light to the amount of
population densities and limited access to water resources. Population absorbed visible light, NDVI can be calculated to provide an index of
density maps (Fig. 4) are typically created using census data or other vegetation health. Areas with low NDVI values indicate low vegetation
population surveys. These data sources are used to create a gridded density, which can be indicative of areas experiencing drought stress. By
dataset that represents the geographic distribution of human pop­ overlaying NDVI information with other relevant data such as precipi­
ulations across the research area. The population density data can then tation and temperature, it is possible to identify areas that are particu­
be combined with other environmental data, such as rainfall data, larly vulnerable to drought and inform drought risk reduction and
temperature data, soil data, and vegetation data, to produce compre­ management strategies.
hensive drought risk maps. Areas with high population densities have NDDI stands for Normalized Difference Drought Index, which is a

Fig. 5. Ndvi map, NDDI map, NDWI map.

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R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

drought index derived from satellite imagery. It is calculated using the drought conditions. To create a drought risk map using LST, the tem­
distinction between the near-infrared reflectance and the shortwave perature of the land surface is measured using data from remote sensing.
infrared refraction off the surface of the earth. Areas with low NDDI Areas with high LST values are more likely to be experiencing drought
values indicate that vegetation cover is not able to efficiently utilize conditions, as high temperatures can lead to increased evapotranspira­
available water, which can be indicative of drought stress. Fig. 5 shows tion and reduced moisture levels in the soil. Fig. 6 shows the SMI, VCI
the all three NDVI, NDDI and NDWI map. and LST map.
NDWI is a measure of the presence and extent of water bodies in an The classification of drought risk is a crucial step in drought risk
area. It is calculated using the distinction between the green reflectance mapping, as it provides a systematic approach to assessing the severity
and the shortwave infrared reflectance of the Earth’s surface. NDWI and magnitude of droughts in different areas. In this study, the risk of
maps are useful for drought risk mapping because they can identify areas drought in the Sabarmati River Basin was classified into five classes:
where water resources are becoming scarce due to drought. Areas with Very Low, low, moderate, high, and very high. This classification was
low NDWI values indicate a decrease in the presence and extent of water according to the combination of different variables, namely, rainfall,
bodies, such as rivers, lakes, and wetlands, which can be indicative of temperature, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. The area classifi­
drought conditions. cation of the Sabarmati River Basin created a map of the drought risk,
The Soil Moisture Index (SMI) can be used to create drought risk that highlighted the distribution of drought risk in the region. Fig. 7
maps that provide valuable information on areas that are vulnerable to shows that the areas classified as high and very high-risk zones were
drought. The SMI is calculated using remote sensing data that measures mainly concentrated in the south-western and northern parts of the
the amount of moisture in the soil, typically, the soil moisture index is basin. The area classification of the Sabarmati River Basin is an essential
expressed as a percentage of the maximum water-holding capacity of the tool for identify areas that require urgent attention in terms of drought
soil. Areas with low SMI values are more likely to experience drought preparedness and mitigation. The developed map can be used to create
conditions, and these areas can be highlighted on a map to provide a suitable drought risk management plans that are adapted to the partic­
visual representation of the risk. Drought risk maps can be used to help ular requirements and vulnerabilities of various basin areas. Overall, the
farmers, water managers, and other stakeholders make decisions about classification of drought risk and area classification of the Sabarmati
crop management, water allocation, and disaster response. River Basin provide insightful information into the spatial distribution of
The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) is another tool that can be drought risk and can help to inform decision-making processes related to
used for drought risk mapping. The VCI is calculated using remote drought risk management.
sensing data to measure the condition of vegetation, which is closely The zones classified as high-risk areas are clearly associated with
linked to soil moisture conditions. It is calculated by comparing the regions that show a combination of several characteristics, such as lower
current vegetation conditions to the long-term average. This can provide values of vegetation health, higher values of land surface temperature,
insight into whether vegetation is stressed due to a deficiency of mois­ and lower values of soil moisture content. These spatial patterns high­
ture absorption in the soil. Areas with low VCI values are more likely to light the complex interactions that contribute to increased drought
be experiencing drought conditions, and these areas can be highlighted vulnerability between climatic variables and land features. The risk map
on a map to identify the risk. also shows noteworthy associations with particular land-use categories,
Like the SMI, the VCI can be used to create drought risk maps that highlighting the importance of human influences on drought suscepti­
help farmers, water managers, and other stakeholders make decisions bility. This thorough interpretation strengthens our knowledge of the
about crop management, water allocation, and disaster response. By regional variables influencing the likelihood of drought, laying the
identifying areas that are at risk of drought, these maps can help to groundwork for focused mitigation and adaptation plans in the high-risk
improve preparedness and decrease the effect of drought events on local areas that have been identified.
bodies and the environment. Drought is a recurring natural phenomenon that affects various re­
The Land Surface Temperature (LST) is also applicable as a tool for gions of the world, including the Sabarmati River Basin. Drought risk
drought risk mapping. LST is a measure of the temperature of the land mapping is a critical tool for assessing the vulnerability of an area to
surface, and it can be used to identify areas that are experiencing high drought and supporting drought risk management. In this study, we
temperatures and low moisture levels, which are often associated with classified the Sabarmati River Basin into five drought risk zones based

Fig. 6. Smi map, VCI map, LST map.

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R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

Fig. 7. Drought risk map of sabarmati river basin.

on various drought indicators, such as precipitation, soil moisture, and representation of the distribution and magnitude of drought risk across
vegetation. The calculation of the area for each drought risk zone and the basin.
their percentage coverage in the Sabarmati River Basin was executed The very low-risk zone covers the largest area of 69218.46 ha, rep­
through a spatial analysis within a GIS framework. We employed poly­ resenting 2.338% of the total area as shown in Table 4. This zone is
gon overlay operations to determine the extent of each zone and sub­ characterized by low vulnerability to drought and low probability of
sequently calculated the corresponding area. The percentage coverage experiencing severe drought events. The low-risk zone covers an area of
was derived by dividing the individual zone area by the total basin area 515787.71 ha, which is 17.42% of the total area. This zone has a rela­
and expressing it as a percentage, providing a spatially explicit tively low vulnerability to drought but requires some preparedness

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R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

Table 4 experts advise implementing specific adaptive policies and plans in

Area calculation of drought risk map. high-risk drought zones that our study has identified. In particular,
Sr. No. Area (Ha) Percentage Risk Zone research suggest that creating and advancing sustainable water man­
agement strategies, such as groundwater recharge projects, rainwater
1 69218.46195 2.338184 Very Low
2 515787.7133 17.42319 Low collection systems, and effective irrigation technologies. Initiatives for
3 1687396.047 59.999849 Moderate reforestation can also be put in place to lessen surface runoff and in­
4 687948.7486 23.23875 High crease soil moisture retention. To improve readiness and response, early
5 0.814277 0.000028 Very High warning systems rooted in the community should be put in place. Our
research has led to the development of these adaptive strategies, which
measures to address moderate drought events. The moderate risk zone seek to promote sustainable development and increase adaptive capac­
covers the largest area of 1687396.047 ha, which is 59.999% of the total ity in high-risk areas for drought.
area. This zone has a moderate vulnerability to drought and is suscep­ In conclusion, the key objective of this study was to evaluate the risk
tible to prolonged drought events. This zone requires significant pre­ of a drought, in the Sabarmati River Basin, a semiarid region of Gujarat
paredness measures and drought risk management to address drought using GIS technology. The study adopted a comprehensive approach,
impacts. The high-risk zone covers an area of 687948.74 ha, which is integrating various data sources and analytical tools to generate drought
23.23% of the total area. This zone is characterized by a high vulnera­ risk maps for the region. The outcome of the study revealed that the
bility to drought and is susceptible to severe and prolonged drought Sabarmati River Basin is highly vulnerable to droughts, with several
events. This zone requires urgent preparedness measures and compre­ areas categorized as high and very high-risk zones. The analysis also
hensive drought risk management to address drought impacts. The very highlighted the significant impact of climatic variables, such as rainfall,
high-risk zone has the smallest area of 0.8142 ha, representing only temperature, and evapotranspiration, on drought risk. The generated
0.000028% of the total area. This zone is the most vulnerable to drought maps can be used as a useful tool for policymakers and other stake­
and is susceptible to severe and prolonged drought events. Arid and holders to prioritize resource allocation and identify areas that require
semi-arid climate zones cover most of the state of Gujarat, and these urgent attention in terms of drought preparedness and mitigation.
regions frequently experience droughts. Additionally, it has been noted Additionally, the study provides a template for future drought risk
that throughout time, the study region has experienced an increase in mapping exercises in other similar regions. The study’s use of GIS
the frequency and severity of droughts, which has led to a severe technology is an essential contribution to the field of drought risk
shortage of drinking water. Heat waves and high temperatures have also assessment, as it provides a spatially explicit approach to analyzing and
been observed during the majority of these drought years, especially in visualizing drought risk. The use of GIS technology can help decision-
northern Gujarat. The area was also scorched by moderate to severe heat makers to identify and prioritize the most vulnerable areas, allocate
waves during this time. resources efficiently, and implement appropriate drought risk manage­
Although the study offers insightful information on how to use GIS ment strategies. Overall, this research paper demonstrates the signifi­
techniques to assess how climate change affects the risk of drought in cance of integrating different data sources and analytical tools to assess
semi-arid regions, it is important to recognize that the methods and drought risk in semi-arid regions. The conclusions of this study can raise
datasets have certain limitations. First off, the reliability of conclusions an aspect to the development of sustainable drought risk management
is limited by the lack of historical drought data for validation. Further­ strategies, which can help communities and ecosystems in the Sabarmati
more, there are inherent uncertainties related to future climate scenarios River Basin to cope with the increasing threat of droughts.
when relying solely on climate projections. The accuracy of our analysis
in some areas may be limited by the spatial resolution of some datasets. Statements and Declarations
Despite these drawbacks, our work establishes a framework for future
research, and we urge studies to build upon it by integrating larger The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
historical datasets and improving spatial resolutions to achieve a more interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
precise estimation of the risk of drought in semi-arid areas. the work reported in this paper. On behalf of all authors, the corre­
sponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.
5. Conclusion
Funding Statement
This study demonstrated that GIS techniques can effectively evaluate
consequences of climate change on drought risk in semiarid areas by The authors declare that they received no funding for this research
integrating multiple environmental factors. The generated drought risk and there are no any potential conflicts of interest in this paper.
map can be applicable to identify the areas that are most susceptible to
drought and to develop appropriate drought risk management strate­ CRediT authorship contribution statement
gies. The results highlight the importance of considering both natural
and human factors in drought risk assessment and management. Using Rinali Patel: Writing – original draft. Anant Patel: Writing – review
GIS methods provides a thorough assessment of how climate change & editing, Supervision.
may affect the risk of drought in semi-arid areas. Our results indicate a
higher risk impacted by contemporary land use and climate changes. Declaration of competing interest
With the use of indices like LULC, VCI, LST, SMI, and NDDI, our GIS-
based analysis provides comprehensive understanding of the patterns The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
of the current drought. The study highlights how critical it is to put interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
adaptive strategies into place as soon as high-risk areas are identified. the work reported in this paper.
Our study makes a significant contribution to the proactive mitigation of
climate change by highlighting the critical role that GIS plays in thor­ Data availability
ough risk assessment. Our research highlights the need of informed
policy and adaptive strategies to support resilience and sustainable Data will be made available on request.
development as semi-arid regions face increasing risks of drought.
To improve vulnerability and mitigate the effects of climate change,

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R. Patel and A. Patel Results in Engineering 21 (2024) 101957

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