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    White Paper - La Nina - 1

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    Abebe Mengistu

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    White Paper - La Nina - 1

    Uploaded by

    Abebe Mengistu
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    White Paper - La Nina_1

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    White Paper - La Nina - 1

    Uploaded by

    Abebe Mengistu

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 1

    La Niña and Precipitation

    What is La Niña? La Niña is the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Its opposite phase is El Niño. La Niña
    is defined by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and related
    atmospheric changes. Key characteristics
    of La Niña, shown in Figure 1, include: Figure 1 Time series of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation based on the
    Oceanic Niño Index
    • Events occur irregularly, but typically
    happen 2-4 times per decade.
    • Events vary in strength and typically
    reach their peak intensity late in the
    calendar year.
    • Many events last more than one
    year.
    Why is La Niña Important?
    La Niña triggers changes in global Source: NOAA
    atmospheric and oceanic circulation.
    These changes are responsible for anomalous precipitation patterns that can last from months to multiple seasons in FEWS
    NET regions (Figure 2). While precipitation outcomes differ from one La Niña to the next, consistent patterns across past
    events provide a baseline for prediction. Agroclimatic assumptions used in FEWS NET scenario development are based on
    La Niña historical impacts, observed and predicted strength and duration, and other regional factors.
    Regional Precipitation La Niña is related to increases in the likelihood of above- and below-average precipitation over
    many regions of the globe (Figure 2). These changes in precipitation likelihoods occur during certain times of the year. Over
    sub-Saharan Africa, primary rainfall seasons with wet conditions are in the central and eastern Sahel (June-September) and
    in Southern Africa (October-May). Dry conditions are most likely over the Greater Horn of Africa during the September-
    December and March-May rainy seasons. Over Central Asia, dry conditions are most likely during the winter and spring
    precipitation seasons. In northern Central America and the Caribbean the likelihood of wet conditions increases during July-
    September.
    Methods Wet and dry conditions
    Figure 2 Timing of wet and dry conditions related to La Niña
    are based on observed precipitation
    during 21 La Niña events since
    1950. Consistent with seasonal
    forecasts, wet and dry correspond to
    a statistically significant increase in
    the frequency of precipitation in the
    upper and lower thirds of historical
    values, respectively. Statistical
    significance at the 95% level is based
    on the resampling of precipitation
    during neutral El Niño-Southern
    Oscillation conditions.
    Contacts
    • Andrew Hoell [email protected]
    • Laura Harrison [email protected]

    Please Cite As: Famine Early Warning Systems Network, 2020: La Niña www.fews.net
    and Precipitation, Agroclimatology Fact Sheet Series, Vol. 2, pp. 1. Twitter: @FEWSNET

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