September 6, 2023

4:57 AM

2024-2025
Winter Outlook for
Southeast Michigan
90 Day Outlook Valid December 1, 2024 to February 28, 2025

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
 Official CPC Winter Outlook
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI

In the official winter outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, probabilities lean toward above
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for Southeast Michigan. This outlook
factors in ENSO, trends in recent winters, dynamical model guidance such as the NMME, and
statistical tools. The NOAA press release can be found here.
National Weather Service
Detroit, MI
 Official CPC Winter Outlook Probabilities
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI
Temperature Detroit Flint Saginaw

Leaning Toward Above Normal Temperatures

Precipitation
Detroit Flint Saginaw

Leaning Toward Above Normal Precipitation

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/interactive/index.php

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
 State of ENSO
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI
After a strong El Niño last winter, its counterpart La Niña is forecast to return this winter. Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly – October 7-13, 2024
Cool sea surface temperature anomalies are noted in the central and eastern equatorial
Pacific (see black box in image to right), but have yet to fall below the threshold (-0.5°C)
needed to declare La Niña (see below). La Niña has a 60% probability to develop during the
September-November season and is expected to persist through the January-March 2025
season once it does emerge.
Niño 3.4
Only four La Niña episodes since 1950 have formed this late in the year, and all of those region
were either weak or on the border of weak and moderate. This La Niña is also forecast to be
a weak event – this means that the typical impacts of La Niña may be dominated by other
Image Courtesy NOAA View
weather and climate phenomena that aren’t predictable at this time range. Still, the presence
of La Niña does offer some forecast skill at the seasonal scale. Read more about the La
Niña Watch and the latest forecast from CPC here (updated weekly).
La Niña is most
likely to persist
through winter.

Anomaly values between

-0.5 and -0.9°C are
considered a weak event.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
 Typical La Niña Impacts
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI
La Niña will likely influence the atmospheric
circulation pattern this winter, with implications
on the local conditions for the Great Lakes.

What this can mean:

• An active jet stream pattern across the
northern/eastern tier of the US that directs
storm systems across the local area. More
often than not, La Niña winters are wetter than
normal for Southeast MI.
• High sub-seasonal variability in temperatures
(alternating cold outbreaks and mild streaks)
dependent on the placement of the jet stream.

What we don’t know:

• How other climate signals such as the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and stratospheric
warming events may influence local temperature and precipitation patterns on shorter (weekly-to-
monthly) time scales. These influences are not predictable at the seasonal time scale.
National Weather Service
Detroit, MI
Historical La Niña Impacts – Temperature
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI

The graphic shows that in roughly half of

La Niña winters since 1925, our area has
observed above normal temperatures.
This tells us La Niña doesn’t have a
strong relationship with wintertime
temperatures. Higher sub-seasonal
temperature variability is common in La
Niña, but there has been no consistent
lean toward above or below normal
temps overall.

This graphic accounts for trends in average

winter temperatures over the years.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
Historical La Niña Impacts – Precipitation
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI

The graphic shows that our area has

observed above normal precipitation in
more than half of the La Niña winters
since 1925. This tells us that more often
than not, La Niña winters have been
wetter than normal for the region.

This graphic accounts for trends in average

winter precipitation over the years.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
ENSO and Snowfall
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI

The graphic shows that there is a

negative correlation between the
Oceanic Niño Index and snowfall across
the Great Lakes. This means that during
La Niña winters, we have generally seen
more snow than we have during El Niño
winters.

This graphic accounts for trends in average

winter snowfall over the years.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
No Two La Niñas Are The Same
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI
La Niña’s effect on winter
temperatures across the Great
Lakes generally offers little forecast
skill. These maps show how each
La Niña winter played out across
the region.

A weak La Niña is forecast this

year.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
No Two La Niñas Are The Same
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI
La Niña’s effect on winter
precipitation has some predictability
in the Great Lakes, but no two La
Niñas are the same. These maps
show how each La Niña winter
played out across the region.

A weak La Niña is forecast this

year.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
 Previous Weak La Niña Winter Stats
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI

Years marked with a * indicate a La Niña event that reached moderate strength These charts use the NOAA NCEI 1991-2020
at some point in its evolution, but were weak during the winter (DJF) season. U.S. Climate Normals.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
 Trends in Recent Winters
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI

Beyond ENSO, a skillful Temperature Precipitation

predictor at the seasonal
time scale is to account
for how trends have
evolved over the past 10
to 15 years. Composite
anomalies of the past 15
years show that winters
have trended warmer
across Lower MI.
Meanwhile, there is no
strong signal for
precipitation trends.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
 Model Ensemble Guidance
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI

The North American Temperature Precipitation

Multi-Model Ensemble
(NMME), a seasonal
forecasting system
featuring coupled models
from US and Canadian
modeling centers, is
another tool that provides
additional guidance to
inform seasonal
forecasts. The latest
output offers increased
probabilities for above
normal temperatures and
precipitation across the
Great Lakes.
National Weather Service
Detroit, MI
 Current Drought Status and Seasonal Drought Outlook
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI

Recent Rainfall
Rainfall
Detroit Flint Saginaw
(Departure)

1 Month 2.56” 1.81” 1.48”

Sep 16 to Oct 16 (-0.30”) (-1.19”) (-1.47”)

3 Months 7.77” 8.52” 5.70”

Jul 16 to Oct 16 (-1.91”) (-0.93”) (-3.96”)

6 Months 17.70” 20.44” 13.77”

Apr 16 to Oct 16 (-2.33”) (+1.01”) (-5.60”)

9 Months 25.06” 26.70” 19.52”

Jan 16 to Oct 16 (-2.08”) (+1.19”) (-6.08”)

Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions 1 Year 31.50” 33.93” 25.49”

have developed for most of Southeast Michigan
Oct 16, 2023
to Oct 16, 2024 (-2.90”) (+1.87”) (-6.72”) Due to higher probabilities for a
over the past month. Rainfall deficits over the past wet winter, drought is forecast to
month range from around 0.50” to 1.50” below
normal. Larger deficits exist for most of the area improve through January.
when looking farther back, with the exception of
Flint which had its 10th wettest summer on record.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
 Outlook Summary
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI
• La Niña is expected to be a primary driver of the upper air pattern this
winter and the outlook is based heavily upon the typical impacts.
• La Niña often (but not always) results in wetter than normal winters for
Southeast Michigan. Thus, probabilities lean towards above normal
precipitation.
• Note: This is not a snowfall outlook, but above normal precip could
favor above normal snowfall if the precip events occur during cooler
episodes.
• Observed trends over recent years are also accounted for in these
outlooks, which show Southeast Michigan winters have trended warmer.
The outlook leans toward above normal temperatures.
• Ensemble model guidance advertises increased probability for above
normal temperatures and precipitation, providing additional confidence.
• Despite odds favoring a warmer and wetter winter overall, that does not
rule out cold outbreaks, dry streaks, and periods of heavy snow which
remain a possibility like in any other winter.
• Drought conditions are forecast to improve over the winter.

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
 Winter Records and Trivia – Temperature
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI
Normal Winter Normal Winter
December January February December January February
High Temp (DJF) Low Temp (DJF)

Detroit 37.2 32.3 35.2 34.9 Detroit 25.3 19.2 20.8 21.8

Flint 34.9 29.9 32.8 32.6 Flint 22.5 16.0 16.7 18.4

Saginaw 34.7 29.5 31.8 32.0 Saginaw 23.1 16.4 17.3 18.9

Warmest… Temperature Month Winter (DJF) Coolest… Temperature Month Winter (DJF)

73 41.1 37.0 -21 12.2 18.7

Detroit (2/27/2024) (Dec. 2015) (1881 – 1882)
Detroit (1/21/1984) (Feb. 1875) (1903 – 1904)

-25
74 41.0 34.0 10.9 16.9
Flint (2/27/2024) (Dec. 2015) (2023 – 2024)
Flint (2/20/2015 &
(Jan. 1977) (1976 – 1977)
1/18/1976)
33.2
74 39.1 -23 9.4 15.7
Saginaw (2023 – 2024 & Saginaw
(2/27/2024) (Dec. 2015) (2/5/1918) (Jan. 1912) (1962 – 1963)
1931 – 1932)

Normal number of days per winter with a min temp at or below 0 degrees: Detroit: 3.4; Flint: 8.7; Saginaw: 6.5 All temps in °F; normals reflect 1991-2020 period

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI
 Winter Records and Trivia – Precipitation & Snowfall
2024-2025 Winter Outlook for SE MI
Normal Winter Normal Winter
December January February December January February
Precipitation (DJF) Snowfall (DJF)
Detroit 2.25” 2.23” 2.08” 6.56” Detroit 8.9” 14.0” 12.5” 35.4”
Flint 1.89” 1.99” 1.68” 5.56” Flint 11.4” 15.1” 13.0” 39.5”
Saginaw 1.85” 1.92” 1.77” 5.54” Saginaw 11.8” 13.9” 11.4” 37.1”

Wettest… Month Winter (DJF) Snowiest… Month Winter (DJF)

6.41” 12.74” 39.1” 78.0”
Detroit (Feb. 1881) (1949 – 1950)
Detroit (Jan. 2014) (2013 – 2014)
5.28” 10.48” 35.3” 71.6”
Flint (Feb. 1954) (1949 – 1950)
Flint (Dec. 2000) (2013 – 2014)
6.10” 11.95” 40.2” 75.7”
Saginaw (Feb. 1997) (1996 – 1997)
Saginaw (Dec. 2000) (2007 – 2008)

Driest… Month Winter (DJF) Least Snowy… Month Winter (DJF)

0.04” 2.24” 0.0” 5.6”
Detroit (2002 – 2003)
Detroit
(Feb. 1877) (Dec. 1889) (1889 – 1890)
0.07” 1.51” T 5.8”
Flint (1962 – 1963)
Flint
(Jan. 1945) (Jan. 1934) (1936 – 1937)
0.21” 1.86” T 5.6”
Saginaw (1941 – 1942)
Saginaw
(Feb. 1969) (Feb. 1987 & Dec. 1943) (1941 – 1942)

National Weather Service

Detroit, MI