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Chapter 2
Population
The study of human resources is important from the point of view of economic
welfare. It is particularly important because human beings are not only instruments of
production but also ends in themselves. A study of population is necessary as it is an
important determinant of economic development

Meaning of Population

The term population refers to the whole number of people or inhabitants in a

country or region.

Factors determining population growth

The basic factors determining population growth are

1. Birth rate

2. Death rate

3. Migration

a. Out-migration (Emigration)

b. In-migration (Immigration)

Birth Rate

Birth rate has a positive influence on growth of population. Higher the birth rate,
higher will be the growth of population.
The birth rate depends on the following factors:
i) the age of marriage

ii) the rapidity of child birth

iii) social customs and beliefs and

iv) Illiteracy and ignorance of controlling births.

Early marriage, higher child birth, higher the spread of social customs and
beliefs (like son preference to do the religious functions) and higher the rate of illiteracy
and ignorance of birth controlling measures, higher will be the birth rate and population
growth.
Social awareness and spread of education among the people can help to
increase the mean age of marriage, increase the knowledge about family planning
methods and family welfare measures to control births, reduce the rapidity of child birth
and thereby reduce the birth rate.

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Death Rate

Lower the death rate, higher will be the population growth and vice versa. High
death rates may be due to hunger, starvation, malnutrition, epidemics, lack of proper
medical and sanitary facilities. On the other hand, low death rates may be the result of
better diet, pure drinking water, improved hospital facilities, control of epidemics and
contagious diseases and better sanitation.

Migration

Out-migration will reduce population growth while in-migration will increase the
population growth.

Migration is not an important factor contributing to the population growth due

to the restrictions imposed by different countries. Thus, the two major causes for the
variations in population are birth rate and death rate.

Population and Economic Development

Population growth can be both a stimulant as well as an obstacle to economic

development.

Population as a stimulant to economic development

1. In a backward economy, population growth results in increase in supply of
labour. This in turn results in the availability of cheap labour in the economy. Therefore,
under a given technology with the availability of capital, production can be increased
by increasing the labour use.

2. Population growth results in increased demand for products. Increased

demand results in increased production, employment and income in the economy. As
a result, the economy will develop.

3. Due to population growth, the supply of goods and services increases.

Increased supply results in increased production, which in turn results in specialisation.
Specialisation will induce technological improvements.

4. Increased demand and increased supply of products result in scarcity of

resources, which induce technological improvements.

Population Explosion

Population explosion means the alarming and rapid rate of increase in population.

Causes of Population Explosion

1. High Birth Rate

High Birth rate is a major cause responsible for the rapid growth of population.
In India, although the birth rate has declined from 45.8 per thousand during the period

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1891-1900 to about 25.8 per thousand in 2001, it is still considered to be substantially

high. This shows that the birth rate has not come down considerably in spite of the
increase in the widespread propaganda of family planning, family welfare programmes
and population education campaigns.

2. Low Death Rate

The phenomenal fall in the death rate in recent years is another important factor
that has contributed to the rapid increase in population. The death rate in India is
about 8.5 per thousand in 2001. Due to advancement in medical science, dreadful and
chronic diseases such a small pox, cholera, plague, typhoid are no longer dreaded.
Better facilities for sanitation and cleanliness, provision of pre-natal and post-natal
care has reduced infant mortality rate.

3. Early Marriage

The practice of early marriage is another important reason for the rapid increase
in population in India. The mean age of marriage for girls is about 18 years, which is
low, compared to the other countries of the world, which is about 23 to 25 years. This
results in a longer span for reproductive activity and the increase in the number of
children.

4. Social and Religious reasons

In India, every person has to marry because marriage is a compulsory institution

as per social norms. In joint family system, nobody feels individual responsibility and
everybody has access to equal level of consumption. Therefore, people do not hesitate
to increase the size of the family. Most of the people think that at least one male child
should be born in the family. In the expectation of getting a male child, they go on
increasing the family size.

5. Poverty

Poverty is another cause which contributes to the increase in population.

Children are source for income of the family. The children at a very young age help
their parents in work, instead of going to school and thus prove to be an asset for the
family. Every additional child will become an earning member and thus supplement the
family income.

6. Standard of living

People whose standard of living is low tend to have more children because an
additional child is considered as an asset rather than a liability. Since a majority of the
population is uneducated, they are unable to understand the need for family planning.
They are unaware that a smaller size of family will help them enjoy a better standard
of living.

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7. Illiteracy

A major part of the population (about 60%) in India is either illiterate or has the
minimum education. This leads them to accept minimal work in which they cannot
even support themselves. Unemployment and under- employment further lead to
poverty. Moreover due to the prevalence of higher rate of illiteracy, there is widespread
ignorance in the form of social customs and beliefs like early marriage and preference
for a male child.As a result, there is high rate of population growth in the country.

Population Explosion as an obstacle to Economic Development

India is facing the situation of population explosion.Although we need more

labour supply for our economic development, it is also true that if our population keeps
on rising, the process of economic development will be affected. The rising population
in India affects economic development in the following ways:

(1) Food Shortage

If the population of India goes on rising and there is no proportionate increase

in agricultural production, the country will face a serious food problem.

(2) Burden of unproductive Consumers

The greater the increase in population, the greater is the number of children and
old persons. Children and old persons consume without their making any contribution
to output. The increasing number of children and old people increase the burden in
terms of more requirements of nutrition, medical care, public health and education that
go unattended to a large extent.

(3) Reduction in National and Per Capita Income

The fast growing population retards the average growth rate of national income
and per capita income. This is because whatever is added to the national income is
consumed by ever-increasing population.

(4) Low savings and investment

The most serious consequences of a rapid increase in population is that it

reduces the capacity to save and invest. The national income and per capita income in
India is very low to leave any margin for the people to save. Further, there will be a fall
in effective demand as the people’s purchasing power is low. Rapid population growth
thus makes it difficult to increase the rate of savings which determines the possibility
of achieving higher productivity and incomes in a country.

(5) Reduction in Capital Formation

Capital formation is very essential for the economic development of a country,

particularly for a developing country like India. Capital formation depends upon saving
and investment. This is not possible when there is a rapid growth of population,

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which results in more unemployment and underemployment. Thus, the fast-growing

population affects the capital formation in the country adversely.

(6). Unemployment and Underemployment

Rising population aggravates the problem of unemployment. The labour force

also increases with the increase in population; and this increased labour force is not
fully absorbed due to lack of employment opportunities. Therefore, there are more
unemployed and underemployed people.

(7) Loss of Women’s Labour

Rapid and frequent childbirths make a large number of women unable to take
part in productive activity for longer periods. This is a waste of human resource, and it
retards economic development.

(8) Low Labour efficiency

The increasing population adversely affects the national income and the per
capita income. Due to this, the people have a low standard of living, which makes them
less efficient. This hinders the rapid development of the country.

(9) More Expenditure on Social Welfare Programmes

A rise in population increases the number of children. This would demand

more social expenditure on medical care, public health, family welfare, education and
housing, etc.

(10) Agricultural Backwardness

The increase in population has led to uneconomic holdings through subdivision

and fragmentation of land holdings in India. The size of holding is so small that
mechanised farming is not possible.Although some successful efforts towards
development of agriculture have been made under the Five Year Plans, agricultural
production still far short of the requirements of the population and the agro-industries
in the country.

(11) Underdeveloped Industries

The rapid growth of population adversely affects industrial development. This is

the reason why neither the cottage and small-scale industries nor large-scale industries
could develop adequately in the country. Both big and small industries require adequate
capital, whereas the rate of capital formation is low in India. Public investment in India
is insufficient for the industrial development of the country.

(12) Financial Burden on Government

Rapid increase in population is a financial strain to the government. The

resources have to be spent on launching poverty alleviation programmes and social

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welfare schemes. This includes provision of good drinking water, housing, sanitary,
health and medical facilities in order to increase the standard of living of the people.
If the population is controlled, then the government can spend on more productive
purposes which would increase the national and per capita income and thereby raise
the standard of living of the people.

All these above mentioned factors emphasise the urgency of checking the
population growth in India. The rapid rate of population growth affects the economic
progress of the country adversely. That is why, it is sometimes said that in India we
have to run and run to remain in the same place.

Steps to check rapid growth of population

(1) Couple Protection Rate (CPR)

CPR should be increased, which means the percentage of couples using birth
control or family planning methods should go up.

(2) Infant Mortality rate (IMR)

IMR must be reduced further because when infants die in lesser numbers, there
is an incentive to adopt small family norm by the people.

(3) Industrialisation of the country

The burden of population on land must be reduced. Cottage and small scale
industries must be developed in villages to provide employment to the maximum
number of people. This leads to increase in standard of living which acts as a check on
population growth.

(4) Increase in Female Literacy Rate and Education

The educated people have a better and more responsible outlook towards the
size of their families. They can understand the advantages of a small family and adopt
family planning methods to reduce the family size. This will help in reducing the birth
rate.

(5) Late Marriages

Late marriages must be encouraged.At the same time, early marriages must be
strictly checked. The minimum age of marriage for boys at 21 years and for girls at 18
years should be strictly followed in real life.

(6) Legal Steps

Strict laws must be made and enforced to check early marriages and polygamy.

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(7) Family Planning

This is the most important measure to check the rapid growth of population.
Family Planning means limiting the size of the family. The Family Planning Campaign
should be a national movement. Education about family planning must be made
common. People must me made aware of the different methods of birth control.

Theories of Population

Malthusian Theory of Population

The Malthusian theory of population is the most well-known theory on population

in economics. Malthus pointed out that an accelerated increase in population would
outweigh the increase in food production. This would have an adverse impact on the
development of an economy. This theory is explained in the following propositions:

1. The rate of growth of population is limited by the availability of the means of

subsistence i.e. food. If the means of subsistence increase, population also increases
unless it checked.

2. Population increases at a faster rate than food production. In other words,

while population increases in a geometric progression, food production increases in an
arithmetic progression.

3. The preventive and positive checks are the two measures to keep the
population on the level with the available means of subsistence.
The first proposition states that the size of population is determined by the
availability of food production. In other words, greater production can sustain a
larger population. If food production does not increase to match the rate of growth of
population, it will lead to poverty. The want of food would result in deaths and thereby
automatically limit the population. If the food production increases, the people will tend
to increase their family size. This will lead to more demand for food, so the availability
of food per person will diminish. This will lead to a lower standard of living.

The second proposition states that population would increase at a geometrical

progression i.e. in the ratio of 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc., but food production would increase at
an arithmetical progression i.e. in the order of 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, etc. If population increases
there will be a burden on land, which is limited; as a result there will be diminishing
returns. This will lead to a decrease in the output per worker and a corresponding
decrease in the availability of food per person. The imbalance between the population
growth and food supply would lead to a bare subsistence of living, misery and poverty.

This imbalance is corrected by two checks namely preventive checks and

positive checks.

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Preventive checks are those checks applied by man to reduce the population.
The preventive checks include late marriage, self-restraint and other similar measures
applied by people to limit the family.

Positive checks affect population growth by increasing death rate. The positive
checks on population are many and include every cause either from vice or misery
which helps to shorten the life span. Common diseases, plagues, wars, famines
unwholesome occupations, excess labour, exposure to the seasons, extreme poverty,
bad nursing of children are a few examples for positive checks.

Malthus thus recommended that the preventive checks can be used by mankind
to avoid misery or else the positive checks would come into operation. As a result,
there will be a balance between population and food production. Malthusian theory is
explained in the following Flow Chart.

Malthusian Theory of Population

Population grows in Food supply grows in

Geometrical Progression Arithmetical Progression
(2, 4, 8, 16, 32) (2, 4, 6, 8, 10)

Imbalance between
Population and Food Supply

Corrective Measures of Imbalance

Positive Checks Preventive Checks

(Misery, diseases, wars, (Celibacy, late marriages,
earthquakes, oods, etc.) moral restraint, etc.)

The Theory of Optimum Population

The modern theory of optimum population brings out the relationship between
changes in population and the consequent changes in per capita income. Modern
economists such as Sidgwick, Cannon, Dalton and Robbins have propagated this
theory.

Optimum population means the ideal population relative to the natural resources,
stock of capital equipment and state of technology. There will be an ideal size of
population at which per capita output (or real income per head) will be the highest.

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In other words, optimum population is that level of population at which per capita
output is the highest. A country is said to be underpopulated if the population is less
then the optimum and overpopulated if the population is more than the optimum.

Illustration

Let us assume that the availability of natural resources, capital equipment and
state of technology remain fixed in a country. The population is assumed to be small
relative to these resources. When population increases, the labour force in a country
also increases.As additional labour is combined with fixed amounts of these resources,
the per capita output will initially rise due to greater of specialisation and more efficient
use of natural and capital resources available. As population increases, a point will be
reached when capital and natural resources will be fully exploited and output will be the
highest.

Thus, the level of population at which the per capita output is the highest is known
as optimum population. Beyond this point, if the population increases, the country will
become overpopulated and the per capita output will start decreasing because there
are more women/men in relation to natural resources in the economy.

Thus, the given amount of capital and natural resources have to be shared
among a larger number of workers resulting in smaller amount of equipment, materials
and natural resources available per person to work with. Thus, the average productivity
declines. With the fall in the output per head, per capita income and standard of living
of the people also decline. Overpopulation leads to a low standard of living, disguised
unemployment and food shortage.

Both underpopulation and overpopulation have shortcomings. It is optimum

population with the highest per capita output which is best suited for a country. This is
explained in Figure 2.1.

In the figure, size of population is measured on the X-axis and output per capita
on the Y-axis. It is clear that as population increases, output per capita also increases
till OM. At OP level of population, output per capita is the highest and is equal to MP. If
population increases beyond the level OP, then per capita output will fall. Therefore OP
is the optimum population. If the actual population is less than OP, a country is said to
be underpopulated and if it is more then OP, it is overpopulated.

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Figure 2.1
Theory of Optimum Population
Y

per capita output

M

A
B

O X
P population

The following formula measures whether population at a point of time is optimum

or not
A-O
M=
O

Where

M= Maladjustment in level of output

A = Actual population

O = Optimum population

If ‘M’ is zero, then the total population is equal to optimum population

If ‘M’ is positive, the total population is more then the optimum population.

If ‘M’ is negative, the total population is less then the optimum population

The Theory of Demographic Transition

The demographic transition brings out the relationship between fertility and
motility, i.e. between the birth rate and the death rate. Birth rate refers to the number of
births occurring per 1000 in a year. Death rate refers to the number of deaths occurring
per 1000 in a year. This theory explains the changes in these rates as a consequence
of economic development. This theory points out that there are three distinct stages of
population growth.

Stage I: High Birth Rate and Death Rate

In the first stage, the country is backward and less developed. Agriculture will be
the main occupation of the people and primitive mode of cultivation will be used. The
standard of living of the people will be low. This stage is characterised by high birth rate
and high death rate. The high death rate is due to poor diets, improper sanitation and
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lack of proper medical facilities. Birth rate is high on account of widespread illiteracy,
ignorance of family planning techniques, early marriages, social beliefs, customs and
attitudes of the people. In this stage, the rate of growth of population is not high since
high birth rate is offset by the high death rate and the population growth stagnates.

Stage II: High Birth Rate and Low Death Rate

As a country advances, it might result in increase in industrial activity, creating

more employment opportunities. This will raise the national and per capita income
of the people, thereby increasing their standard of living. The economy reaches the
second stage of high birth rate and low death rate. The advancement in science and
technology will result in the availability of better medical facilities.

The eradication of many epidemics and dangerous diseases and better sanitary
conditions reduce the incidence of disease and death. The birth rate still remains high
due to the resistance to change, and the long established customs and beliefs. Thus
there is an imbalance between high birth rate and low death rate resulting in high
population growth, and the country witnesses population explosion.
Figure 2.2
The Demographic Transition
Y
Stage - I Stage - II Stage - III

Birth Rate
Population
Growth Rate
Crude Birth and

Death Rate
Death Rates

X
O Time

Stage III: Low Birth Rate and Death Rate

Economic development leads to change in the structure of the economy from an

agrarian to a partially industrialised one. With the increase in industrialisation, people
migrate from rural to urban areas, and there is a change in the attitude of the people.
With the spread of education, people prefer small families in order to increase the
standard of living. Thus the birth rate is reduced.

Implementation of better medical facilities, control of disease and public

sanitation result in low death rate. During this third stage of low birth and death rates,
the growth of population tends to be stable. Almost all countries have passed through

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these three stages (demographic transition) of population growth. The three stages of
demographic transition are shown in Figure 2.2.

Census

The term ‘Census’ can be defined as the process of collecting, compiling,

evaluating, analysing and publishing the demographic economic and social data
relating to all persons in a country or a well-delimited part of a country at a specified
time.

Census of population in India was taken in 1872 and then in 1881. From then
onwards, the census is taken once in 10 years. The latest census was taken in 2001.
Census is very important to know (1) the rate of growth of population (2) the changes
in the distribution of the population.

Census is useful for economic planning, and for implementing welfare schemes
and measures.

The Use of Population Census

The population census provides comprehensive details of India’s population
characteristics. The details recorded in the population census are as follows:

a. Total Population

b. Sex Composition

c. Rural versus Urban population

d. Age Composition

e. Density of Population

f. Literacy Rate
g. Urbanisation

h. Occupational Pattern

Characteristics of Indian Population

India accounts for about 2.4 percent of the total world area but has to support
about 16.84 percent of the world population. The population in our country has been
growing very rapidly from 238.5 million in 1901 to 1027 million in 2001. Thus during
one century i.e. 100 years , the population of India has increased by nearly 788.5
million people. This order of increase is really alarming and threatening to the whole
development process in India.

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Table 2.1 Characteristics of Indian Population

India’s population growth can be studied from the following table:

Population in 2001 Sex Ratio Population Literacy Rate

(in million) (Females per Density (2001)
1000 Males) (Per Sq.k.m.)

Persons Males Females 1991 2001 1991 2001 Persons Males Females

1027 531 495 927 933 267 324 65.38 75.85 54.16

Population growth in India

India’s population growth during the twentieth century can be classified into four
distinct phases as follows.

Census Years Percentage Nature of Growth

growth per
annum
1901 - 1921 0.19 Stagnant Population
1921 - 1951 1.22 Steady growth
1951 - 1981 2.14 Rapid high growth
1981 - 2001 1.80 High growth with definite
signs of slowing down

The growth of population was slow up to 1921 but after this year it increased
significantly. It is for this reason that 1921 is described as the year of the Great Divide.
After 1921, India passed through successively all the phases of demographic transition
and now has entered into the fifth phase which is characterised by rapidly declining
fertility.

Rate of growth of population is a function of birth rate and death rate. The
increase in population in India can be explained by the variations in birth and death
rates. The birth rate in India declined from 49.2 per thousand in 1901 to 25.8 in 2001. In
the same period, the death rate has fallen from 42.6 per thousand to 8.5 per thousand.

The natural growth rate during 1901-1911 was 6.6 (Birth rate minus death rate
during a given period) whereas it was 17.3 in 1991-2001. The increase in natural growth
rate explains that the fall in death rate was more than the fall in birth rate. The fall in
death rates were due to the development of medical facilities and control of epidemics
and diseases. This is a very healthy sign of development. The census results of birth
rate shows that the family planning programmes have to target the country especially
the rural areas in a much more effective manner so that birth rate can still be reduced.

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The National Population Policy (NPP)-2000 recently adopted by the Government

of India states that “the long term objective is to achieve a stable population by 2045, at
a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable development, and environment
protection.”

Population Policy

India was the first developing country to adopt a population policy and to launch
a nationwide family planning programme in 1952. The main objective of the population
policy is to ensure that there is reasonable gap between the fall of death and birth
rates. Population policy refers to the efforts made by any Government to control and
change the population structure.

National Population Policy 2000

The National Population Policy (NPP) 2000 has the immediate objective of
addressing the unmet needs of contraception, health infrastructure, health personnel
and integrating service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care.

It also lays emphasis on the medium term objective of bringing total fertility rates
to replacement level by 2010. ATotal Fertility Rate of 2.1 is known as replacement level
fertility.

The policy’s long term objective is to stabilise population by 2045.

A National Commission on population presided over by the Prime Minister, Chief

Ministers of all States and other dignitaries as the members has been constituted to
oversee and review the policy (NPP-2000) implementation.

Similar to the National Commission, State Level Commissions presided over by

the respective State Chief Ministers have also been set up with the same objective of
ensuring implementation of the policies.

Measures to achieve a stable population

The National Population Policy has listed the following measures to achieve a
stable population by 2045.

1. Reduction of infant mortality rate (IMR) below 30 per 1,00,000 live births

2. Reduction of maternal mortality rate (MMR) to below 100 per 1, 00,000 livebirths

3. Universal immunization

4. To achieve 80 percent deliveries in regular dispensaries, hospitals and medical

institutions with trained staff

5. Access to information , containing AIDS, prevention and control of communicable

diseases

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6. Incentive to adopt two-child small family norm

7. Strict enforcement of Child Marriage Restraint Act and Pre-Natal Diagnostic

Techniques Act

8. Raising the age of marriage of girls from 18 to 20

9. A special reward for women who marry after 21

The Action Plan of the programme includes the following:

(i) Self-help groups at village Panchayat levels comprising mostly of housewives

will interact with health care workers and gram panchayats

(ii) Elementary education to be made free and compulsory

(iii) Registration of marriage, pregnancy to be made compulsory along with births
and deaths

The Government hopes to achieve the objective of population stabilisation by

2045

Chapter 2
Exercise
PART A

I. Choose the correct answer

1. Mention which is not a cause for Population Explosion.

a. High BR b. Social customs

c. High DR d. Poverty

2. T.R. Malthus published his book “Essay on the Principles of Population” in

a. 1896 b. 1776

c. 1857 d. 1798

3. Population increases in a __________ ratio, as explained by Robert Malthus.

a. Proportionate b. Geometric

c.Arithmetic d. Progressive

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4. According 2001 Census, the population of India was

a. 236 million b. 890 million

c. 1000 million d.1027 million

5. _______ refers to the rate of death occurring per thousand new born babies.

a. Natality b. Mortality

c. infant mortality d. death rate

II Fill in the blanks

6. Density of population rose to __________ per sq. km. in 1991.

7. When per capita income increases rapidly, it lowers the __________ rate.

8. ____________ was the first demographer.

9. The quality of population in a country depends on the ___________

10. India is said to be in___________stage of demographic transition.

III Match the following

11. First census - No. of deaths per 1000

12. Positive check - 2000

13. Death rate - Limit the size of the family

14. National Population Policy - famine

15. Family Planning - 1871

IV Answer the following in a word or two

16. Which theory of population is more realistic than the Malthusian Theory of
Population?

17. What are the man-made checks of population growth?

18. Which is the most well-known theory of population in Economics?

19. Give examples for preventive checks.

20. What is the meaning of population explosion?

PART B

Answer the following in four or five line

21. Define birth rate.

22. Define Optimum Population.

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23. Define Census.

24. Write a note on National Population Policy 2000.

25. What are the factors determining population growth?

PART C

Answer the following in about a page

26. Explain the causes of population explosion.

27. Examine the steps to check rapid growth of population.

28. Explain Malthusian theory of population.

29. What are the measures to achieve stable population?

30. Explain optimum theory of population.

PART D

31. Describe in brief the ways that affect economic development by rapidly increasing
population.

32. Explain the theory of demographic transition.

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opportunities in the Indian economy, „Sex-ratio

there have been steady increase in the „Life-expectancy at birth
prices of essential goods. The continuous
„Literacy ratio
rise in prices erodes the purchasing power
and adversely affects the poor people, a. Size of Population
whose income is not protected.
Table 7.1 Population Growth
4. Weak Infrastructure Census Population Average annual
Even though there has been a gradual Year (in crores) growth rate
improvement in the infrastructural 1901 23.84 -
development in the past few decades, there 1911 25.21 0.56
is still a scarcity of the basic infrastructure
1921 25.13 -0.03
like power, transport, storage etc.
1931 27.90 1.04
5. Inadequate Employment 1941 31.87 1.33
generation 1951 36.11 1.25
With growing youth population, there 1961 43.92 1.96
is a huge need of the employment 1971 54.81 2.20
opportunities. The growth in production 1981 68.33 2.22
is not accompanied by creation of job.
1991 84.33 2.16
The Indian economy is characterized by
‘jobless growth’. 2001 102.70 1.97
2011 121.02 1.66
6. Outdated technology (Source: Registrar General of India)

The level of technology in agriculture and

Over a period of 100 years, India has
small scale industries is still outdated and
quadrupled its population size. In terms
obsolete.
of, size of population, India ranks 2nd
in the world after China. India has only
about 2.4% of the world’s geographical
7.3.3 Demographic trends in
area and contributes less than 1.2% of the
India
world’s income, but accommodates about
Scientific study of the characteristics of 17.5% of the world’s population. In other
population is known as Demography. The words, every 6th person in the world is an
various aspects of demographic trends in Indian. Infact, the combined population of
India are: just two states namely, Uttar Pradesh and
„Size of population Maharashtra is more than the population
of United States of America, the third most
„Rate of growth
populous country of the world. Some of
„Birth and death rates the states in India have larger population
„Density of population than many countries in the world.
Indian Economy 147
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The negative growth during has declined from 27.4 in 1951 to 7.1 in 2011.
1911-21 was due to rapid and frequent However, from the data it is clear that the fall
occurrence of epidemics like cholera, in birth rates is less than that of death rates.
plague and influenza and also famines. Kerala has the lowest birth rate (14.7)
The year 1921 is known as the ‘Year of and Uttar Pradesh has the highest birth rate
Great Divide’ for India’s population as (29.5). West Bengal has the lowest death
population starts increasing. rate (6.3) and Orissa (9.2) has the highest.
During 1951, population growth Among States Bihar has the highest decadal
rate has come down from 1.33% to 1.25%. (2001-11) growth rate of population, while
Hence it is known as ‘Year of Small divide’. Kerala has the lowest growth rate. The four
In 1961, population of India states Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan
started increasing at the rate of 1.96% and Uttar Pradesh called BIMARU states
i.e, 2%. Hence 1961 is known as ‘Year of have very high population.
Population Explosion’. In the year 2001,
the Population of India crossed one billion c. Density of population
(100 crore) mark. It refers to the average number of persons
The 2011 census reveals growth of residing per square kilometre. It represents
youth population which is described as the man- land ratio. As the total land area
‘demographic transition’. remains the same, an increase in population
causes density of population to rise.
b. Birth rate and death rate
Density of population
Crude Birth rate: It refers to the number
Total population
of births per thousand of population. =
Land area of the region
Crude Death rate: It refers to the number
of deaths per thousand of population Table 7.3 Dens
i ty of population
Crude birth and death rates of India Year Density of population
during various years (No. of persons per sq. km)
Table 7.2 1951 117
Birth rate and death rate 2001 325
Year C.B.R C.D.R. 2011 382
1951 39.9 27.4 (Source: Registrar General of India)

2001 25.4 8.4 Just before Independence, the density of

2011 21.8 7.11 population was less than 100. But after
(Source: Source: Registrar General of India) independence, it has increased rapidly
from 117 in 1951 to 325 in 2001. According
Birth rate was 39.9 in 1951; it fell to 21.8 in to 2011 census, the present Density of
2011. Although the birth rate has declined, the population is 382. Thus, the pressure of
decline is not so remarkable. The death rate population on land has been rising. Kerala,
Indian Economy 148
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West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have expectancy is high when death rate is low
density higher than the India’s average and / or instances of early death are low.
density. Bihar is the most densely populated
state in the country with 1,102 persons Table 7.5 Life Expec
t enc
y
living per sq.km followed by West Bengal Year Male Female Overall
with 880. Arunachal Pradesh has low
density of population of only 17 persons. 1951 32.5 31.7 32.1
1991 58.6 59.0 58.7
d. Sex ratio 2001 61.6 63.3 62.5
It refers to the number of females per 2011 62.6 64.2 63.5
1,000 males. It is an important indicator (Source: Registrar General of India)
to measure the extent of prevailing equity
between males and females at a given During 1901 – 11, life expectancy was
point of time. just 23 years. It increased to 63.5 years
in 2011. A considerable fall in death rate
Table 7.4 Sex Ratio is responsible for improvement in the
Census year Sex ratio life expectancy at birth. However the life
(Number of females per expectancy in India is very low compared
1000 males) to that of developed countries.
1951 946
f. Literacy ratio
2001 933
It refers to the number of literates as a
2011 940 percentage of the total population. In
(Source: Source: Registrar General of India) 1951, only one-fourth of the males and
one-twelfth of the females were literates.
In India, the sex ratio is more favourable to Thus, on an average, only one-sixth of the
males than to females. In Kerala, the adult people of the country were literates. In
sex ratio is 1084 as in 2011. The recent 2011, 82% of males and 65.5% of females
census (2011) shows that there has been a were literates giving an overall literacy
marginal increase in sex ratio. Haryana has rate of 74.04% (2011). When compared
the lowest sex ratio of 877 (2011) among to other developed countries and even Sri
other states, while Kerala provides better Lanka this rate is very low.
status to women as compared to other
States with 1084 females per 1000 males Table 7.6 Literac
y ratio
Census Literate Males Females
e. Life expectancy at birth
year persons
It refers to the mean expectation of life at 1951 18.3 27.2 8.9
birth. Life expectancy has improved over
2001 64.8 75.3 53.7
the years. Life expectancy is low when
death rate is high and / or instances of early 2011 74.04 82.1 65.5
death are high. On the other hand, life (Source: Registrar General of India)

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Kerala has the highest literacy ratio (92%) According to Agricultural Census,
followed by Goa (82%), Himachal Pradesh the area operated by large holdings (10
(76%), Maharastra (75%) and Tamil Nadu hectares and above) has declined and area
(74%). Bihar has the lowest literacy ratio operated under marginal holdings (less
(53%) in 2011. than one hectare) has increased. This
indicates that land is being fragmented
and become ineconomic.
7.4
Natural Resources
7.4.2 Forest Resources

Any stock or reserve that can be drawn India’s forest cover in 2007 is 69.09 million
from nature is a Natural Resource. The hectare which constitutes 21.02 per cent of the
major natural resources are - land, forest, total geographical area. Of this, 8.35 million
water, mineral and energy. India is rich hectare is very dense forest, 31.90 million
in natural resources, but majority of the hectare is moderately dense forest and the rest
Indians are poor. Nature has provided 28.84 million hectare is open forest.
with diverse climate, several rivers for
irrigation and power generation, rich 7.4.3 Important Mineral
minerals, rich forest and diverse soil. Resources
a. Iron-Ore
Types of Natural resources India possesses high quality iron-ore in
abundance. The total reserves of iron-ore
(a) Renewable Resources: Resources
in the country are about 14.630 million
that can be regenerated in a
tonnes of haematiteand 10,619 million
given span of time. E.g. forests,
tonnes of magnetite. Hematite iron is
wildlife, wind, biomass, tidal,
mainly found in Chattisgarh, Jharkhand,
hydro energies etc.
Odisha, Goa and Karnataka.The major
(b) Non-Renewable Resources: deposit of magnetite iron is available at
Resources that cannot be western coast of Karnataka. Some deposits
regenerated. E.g. Fossil fuels- of iron ore are also found in Kerala, Tamil
coal, petroleum, minerals, etc. Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

b. Coal and Lignite

7.4.1 Land Resources Coal is the largest available mineral
In terms of area India ranks seventh in resource. India ranks third in the world
the world with a total area of 32.8 lakh after China and USA in coal production.
sq. km. It accounts for 2.42% of total area The main centres of coal in India are the
of the world. In absolute terms India is West Bengal, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh,
really a big country. However, land- man Maharashtra,Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
ratio is not favourable because of the huge Bulk of the coal production comes from
population size. Bengal-Jharkhand coalfields.
Indian Economy 150
 POPULATION EXPLOSION

POPULATION EXPLOSION
Population explosion refers to the rapid and dramatic rise in world population that has
occurred over the last few hundred years. Population Explosion defined as a significant
number of people staying in the individual area. It is a huge problem in India. In fact,
in all over the world, it is increasing, especially in the poorer countries it is developing.
During the 1951 Census, the Population increased by 361 million. During the 2011
Census, the Population increased by 1.21 billion.

Population Explosion is a big issue in the developing country. No one people are
following the right step to control the Population, even the government of India is not
leading proper rules and regulation for control the Population Explosion. It causes
many problems among people.

Prime Minister highlighted “population explosion” and underscored the need for
“social awareness” to deal with this concern while addressing the nation on 73rd
Independence Day.

Total Fertility Rate

The National Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is estimated to be still marginally higher than
the replacement rate. The latest estimates (for 2017) by the Sample Registration
System (SRS) under the Registrar General of India (RGI) has pegged the country’s TFR
at 2.2, marginally more than the replacement rate which stands at 2.1.TFR measures
the number of children born to a woman at the end of childbearing age. Replacement
Rate is the average number of children a woman needs to have to keep the population
at a constant size.

States with higher TFR

Seven states have recorded a higher TFR than the national average of 2.2 — Uttar
Pradesh (3.0), Bihar (3.2), Madhya Pradesh (2.7), Rajasthan (2.6), Assam (2.3),
Chhattisgarh (2.4) and Jharkhand (2.5) — that account for about 45% of the total

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population in the 2011 Census. Gujarat and Haryana, too, recorded a TFR of 2.2, which
is above the replacement rate but is equal to the national average.

States with lower TFR

Relatively well-off states in the south — Kerala (1.7), Tamil Nadu (1.6), Karnataka (1.7),
Maharashtra (1.7), Andhra Pradesh (1.6) and Telangana (1.7) — demonstrate fertility
rates and TFR below the rate required for population replacement, West Bengal (1.6),
Jammu and Kashmir (1.6) and Odisha (1.9), too, were estimated to have lower TFRs in
2017.

Reasons for trends in TFR

The latest report of 2017 underlined that the TFR has declined from 5.2 to 4.5 between
1971 and 1981 and from 3.6 to 2.2 between 1991 and 2017.Trends vary along the rural-
urban divide as well as the literacy levels of women. The SRS reveals that while
an “illiterate” woman is likely to give birth to 2.9 children on average, a “literate”
woman will produce fewer (2.1) children. The TFR for a woman with education levels of
a graduate or above is 1.4 children. Likewise, urban areas have been usually found to
have a lower TFR than rural areas. This decline in fertility rates is also reflected in the
total population growth recorded in the Census. The decadal population growth in the
intervening period between the 2001 Census and the 2011 Census has seen a decline
after the 1971 Census.

Population Trends

Year World Population (In billion)

1901 1.6
1960 3
1980 5
2000 6
2018 7.7

1. Currently, one billion people are added every 12 - 13 years. During the last
decade there has been substantial decline in birth rate.

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 2. Currently, the annual increment is about 80 million. It is expected to decrease to
about 64 million by 2020 -25 and to 33 million by 2045 -50; 95 % of the growth
of population occurs in developing countries.
3. Most demographers believe that the current accelerated decline in population
growth will continue for the next few decades and the medium projections of
Population Division of United Nations, that the global population will grow to
8.9 billion by 2050 is likely to be achieved.
4. India population growth is briefly classified into four periods
1. Period of stagnant growth rate (before 1921)
2. Period of steady growth rate (1921 - 1951)
3. Period of rapid growth rate (1951 - 1981)
4. Period of declining growth rate (after 1981)

Year Indian Population (In

Crores)
1901 23.84
1951 36.11
1981 68.33
2001 102.87
2011 121.02

Factors determining population growth

The basic factors determining population growth are

1. Birth rate
2. Death rate
3. Migration
a) Out-migration (Emigration)
b) In-migration (Immigration)
1. Birth Rate
Birth rate has a positive influence on growth of population. Higher the birth rate,
higher will be the growth of population.
The birth rate depends on the following factors:

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 • The age of marriage
• The rapidity of child birth
• Social customs, beliefs and traditional norms.
• Illiteracy and ignorance of controlling births.
• Better health facilities - lead to higher birth rate.
Early marriage: Higher child birth, higher the spread of social customs and beliefs
(like son preference to do the religious functions) and higher the rate of illiteracy and
ignorance of birth controlling measures, higher will be the birth rate and population
growth.

2. Death Rate

Lower the death rate, higher will be the population growth and vice versa. High
death rates may be due to hunger, starvation, malnutrition, epidemics, lack of
proper medical and sanitary facilities. On the other hand, low death rates may be
the result of better diet, pure drinking water, improved hospital facilities, control of
epidemics and contagious diseases and better sanitation, control over famines,
Expansion of medical facilities, Decline in Infant mortality.

3. Migration

Out-migration will reduce population growth while in-migration will increase the
population growth. Migration is not an important factor contributing to the
population growth due to the restrictions imposed by different countries. Thus, the
two major causes for the variations in population are birth rate and death rate.

Factors affecting the Distribution and Density of Population

India is the second most populous country of the world after China. The
distribution of population is generally studied in terms of density. The density of
population in India is not uniform. On the basis of density of population. India can
be divided into three broad regions of high density, the areas of moderate density
and the areas of low density. The factors which affect density and distribution can
be grouped into two categories. They are physical factors and socio-economic
factors. There is a range of natural factors and human factors that affect population
distribution and density.

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Factors High Density Low Density

Physical factors Low land which is flat. Example High land that is

Relief (shape and Ganges Valley in India. mountainous; e.g.

height of land) Himalayas.

Areas with favourable climates Areas with extreme

tend to be densely populated as climate of hot and cold
Climate
there is enough rain and heat to tend to be sparsely
grow crops e.g: India. populated; eg. The
Sahara Desert.

Resources Areas rich in resources (e.g. Areas with few resources

coal, oil, wood and fishing) tend tend to be sparsely
to be densely populated populated

e.g Western Europe. e.g. The sahel in Africa.

Social Groups of people prefer to live other groups of people

close to each other for security. prefer to be isolated.
e.g :USA e.g : Scandinavians.

Economic Good job opportunities Limited job

encourage high population opportunities cause
densities, particularly in large some areas to be
cities in both the more sparsely populated;
economically developed
e.g : Amazon Rainforest
countries (MEDCs) e.g : Tokyo
and less economically developed
countries (LEDCs) e.g : Mumbai

Human Countries with stable Countries with unstable

factors government tend to have a high governments tend to

Political population density. e.g: have lower population

Singapore densities as people move
away; e.g. : Afghanistan.

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Adverse effects of overcrowding in urban areas:
1. Slum proliferation
2. Violence against vulnerable
3. Loss of confidence in Government
4. Poverty, deprivation, illiteracy, Malnutrition
5. Epidemic (Spreading of diseases)

Cause:

High Birth Rate

There are several causes of high birth rate in India.

1. Firstly, poverty is main cause as poor people consider children as assets who
help them to supplement family income even at the tender age.
2. Secondly, illiteracy among the rural people has been traditionally an important
reason. Due to high infant mortality rate, people were encouraged to have more
children in last century.
3. Thirdly, attitude towards having a male child resulted in high birth rate.
Fourthly, early marriage results in long child bearing capacity and causes high
birth rate. Universality of marriage in India also supplements this reason.

Decline in Death Rate

The death rate in past used to be very high due to epidemics and famines. Most of the
epidemics have been controlled and mass destruction of human lt does not take place
due to epidemics. The spread of medical facilities in rural areas has reduced the
occurrence of epidemics and communicable diseases like cholera and smallpox. Easy
availability of life-saving drugs has saved lives of millions of people. The spread of
institutional delivery, female education, urbanization etc. have resulted in decline of
the death rates.

Early Marriage

The practice of early marriage is another important reason for the rapid increase in
population in India.

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The mean age of marriage for girls is about 18 years, which is low, compared to the
other countries of the world, which is about 23 to 25 years. This results in a longer span
for reproductive activity and the increase in the number of children.

Social and Religious reasons

In India, every person has to marry because marriage is a compulsory institution as per
social norms. In joint family system, nobody feels individual responsibility and
everybody has access to equal level of consumption. Therefore, people do not hesitate
to increase the size of the family.

Most of the people think that at least one male child should be born in the family. In
the expectation of getting a male child, they go on increasing the family size.

Poverty

Poverty is another cause which contributes to the increase in population. Children are
source for income of the family. The children at a very young age help their parents in
work, instead of going to school and thus prove to be an asset for the family. Every
additional child will become an earning member and thus supplement the family
income. Impoverished families have this notion that more the number of members in
the family, more will be the numbers to earn income.

Standard of living

People whose standard of living is low tend to have more children because an
additional child is considered as an asset rather than a liability. Since a majority of the
population is uneducated, they are unable to understand the need for family planning.
They are unaware that a smaller size of family will help them enjoy a better standard of
living.

Illiteracy

A major part of the population (about 60%) in India is either illiterate or has the
minimum education. This leads them to accept minimal work in which they cannot
even support themselves. Unemployment and under employment further lead to
poverty. Moreover due to the prevalence of higher rate of illiteracy, there is widespread
ignorance in the form of social customs and beliefs like early marriage and preference
for a male child. As a result, there is high rate of population growth in the country.

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Age old cultural norm:
Sons are the bread earners of the families in India. This ageold thought puts
considerable pressure on the parents to produce children till a male child is born to
them.

Illegal migration:

Illegal migration is continuously taking place from Bangladesh, Nepal leading to

increased population

Other Reasons:

• Ineffective Family Planning System,

• Unwanted Pregnancy
• Immunization against Communicable diseases,
• Expanded Medical facility increases Life Expectancy

Effects of Population Explosion in India

Unemployment:

Generating employment for a huge population in a country like India is very difficult.
The number of illiterate persons increases every year. Unemployment rate is thus
showing an increasing trend.

Manpower utilisation:

The number of jobless people is on the rise in India due to economic depression and
slow business development and expansion activities.

Pressure on infrastructure:

Development of infrastructure facilities is unfortunately not keeping pace with the

growth of population. The result is lack of transportation, communication, housing,
education, health care etc. There has been an increase in the number of slums,
overcrowded houses, traffic congestion etc.

Resource utilisation:

Land areas, water resources, forests are over exploited. There is also scarcity of
resources.

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Decreased production and increased costs:

Food production and distribution have not been able to catch up with the
increasing population and hence the costs of production have increased. Inflation is
the major consequence of over population.

Inequitable income Distribution:

In the face of an increasing population, there is an unequal distribution of income

and inequalities within the country widen.

Poor standard of living

• Growth of population affects the standard living.

• In spite of development in industry and agriculture high growth of
population affects the standard of living.
Basic amenities
High growth of population hinders the efforts of the government in providing basic
amenities like drinking water, education, public health etc.

Homeless / Slums

High growth of population leads to overcrowding of cities and proliferation of slums/

homeless

Increasing Crime Rate / Law and order problems

Growth in population leads to rise of crime and increase in violence in urban & semi
urban areas.

Human deprivation Index (measure of multi dimension poverty)

The human deprivation Index which is measured based on 5 parameters pukka

housing, safe drinking water, electricity, sanitation (toilets) and fuel for cooking.

The human deprivation is very high because of lack of people housing safe drinking
water etc.

Population Control in India-Remedial Measures

Large size of population is a challenge for India's economic development and is needs
to be addressed. The growing population problem calls for a definite population policy
and its effective implementation.

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There are several remedial measures to control population.

1. Firstly, the late marriages should be encouraged to reduce the period of

reproduction among the females, bringing down the birth rate.
2. Secondly, self-restraint due to spread of awareness and education can help in
combating high rise in population. Increased consciousness towards better
standard of life comes due to education and awareness and induces people to
reduce their family size.
3. Thirdly, Infant Mortality Rate should be brought down. People produce many
children when Infant Mortality Rate is high, so that they can offset the loss due
to premature death of their offspring.
4. Fourthly, women should be treated on par with their male counterparts.
Education among women should be encouraged to make them financially
independent. Working women prefer small size families.
5. Fifthly, more planned families should be covered under social security schemes.
Children are born in India in a hope that they would take care of parents in old
age. An increased social security net will lessen the desire to produce children as
old age insurance.
6. Sixthly, the availability of cheap devices of birth control should be in place.
As fertility depends on the age of marriage. So, the minimum age of marriage should be
raised.
In India minimum age for marriage is 21 years for men and 18 years for women has be
fixed by law. This law should be firmly implemented and people should also be made
aware of this through publicity. So, women should be given opportunities to develop
socially and economically.
Free education should be given to them. The spread of education changes the outlook
of people. The educated men prefer to delay marriage and adopt small family norms.
Educated women are health conscious and avoid frequent pregnancies’ and thus help
in lowering birth rate.
The polygamy became illegal in India in 1956, uniformly for all of its citizens except for
Muslims, who are permitted to have four wives and for Hindus in Goa where bigamy is
legal. A polygamous Hindu marriage is null and void. Following Uniform Civil Code
will control the population growth Rate.

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Generally, in rural areas there is disguised unemployment. So efforts should be made
to migrate unemployment persons from rural side to urban side. This step can check
the population growth.

The Family Planning Campaign should be a national movement. Education about

family planning must be made common. People must be made aware of the different
methods of birth control.

Urbanization has led to replacement of husband dominant family into equalitarian

families where wife is given a share in decision.

Population Policy

India was the first developing country to adopt a population policy and to launch a
nationwide family planning programme in 1952. The main objective of the population
policy is to ensure that there is reasonable gap between the fall of death and birth rates.
Population policy refers to the efforts made by any Government to control and change
the population structure.

Difficulties in implementation of Family Planning Programme in India

Poverty:

The majority of the Indian population is poor. They cannot incur expenses on the
preventive measures of family planning. Contrary to it, they prefer more children as
these are expected to contribute to the income of the family.

Illiteracy:

The greatest obstacle in the way of the family planning is the wide spread illiteracy
found in India. Due to illiteracy the majority of the population does not know the
significance of family planning. They will not be able to understand the significance of
family planning till they are educated.

Fatalist:

Most of the people in India are fatalist. They regard every child as the gift of God. They
believe that children are born with one mouth and two hands. They do not believe in
the worth of family planning.

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Religious Opposition:

Some people regard family planning anti-religious and an immoral act. They oppose
the family planning.
Lack of Finance:

The movement of population control measures has not yet reached to every nook and
corner of the country. Sufficient funds are required to propagate and implement the
message of family planning. But the requisite funds are not available.

Lack of Cheap and Effective Methods:

In India there is lack of cheap and effective methods of birth control. There is
inadequacy of population control research centre. There are several reasons for this.
There is no mechanization whereby the result of research is actually transmitted to the
administrators and policy makers.
Shortage of Trained Staff:

There is shortage of trained staff including doctors and nurses. In India, there are only
two doctors for every 10 thousand population. The shortage of trained manpower and
inadequacy of motivation of the staff are also responsible for the poor performance of
the policy of family planning.

Census Report of 2011

Total 1,210,193,422
Population Male 62,37,24,248
Female 58,64,69,174
Total 74.04%
Literacy Male 82.14%
Female 65.46%
Density of Population per km2 382
per 1000
Sex ratio 940 females
males
Child Sex ratio (0-6 age per 1000
941 females
group) males

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Questions:
1. What is the reason for the large-scale population explosion in India?
2. Write a note on total fertility rate.

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