Theory and Practice in Contingency Allocation Char
Theory and Practice in Contingency Allocation Char
Theory and Practice in Contingency Allocation Char
Volume 11 • Issue 1
ABSTRACT
Keywords
Content Analysis, Contingency Allocation, Management, Projects, Risk Management, Strategies, Theory-
Practice Gap
INTRODUCTION
Contingency has become a widely used tool to control risks in an informed and structured way (Mills,
2001). Similarly, assigning contingency within the project value is often considered as a minimum
threshold in risk management. Hence, contingency allocation is one of the salient features in any
form of construction contracting. As a concept, contingency has several dimensions so that a wide
variety of interpretations exists. Contingency is generically defined as a reserve for unexpected events
(Howell, 2012). In the same way, a contingency could be used as a functional monetary incentive
by evaluating various risk drivers (Mei Liu et al., 2013). However, the term contingency, as mainly
defined by many authors, is to describe the budgeted amount to scaffold cost overruns (Querns, 1989;
Smith and Bohn 1999; Baccarini, 2004; Günhan and Arditi, 2007). In addition, contingency refers to
a pool of money reserved to shield unanticipated project costs (Davis, 2020). Because contingency
plays a vital role in construction projects, good attention should be given to allocating contingency
amounts used to cover up the probable risks.
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Akintoye and MacLeod (1996) confirmed that contingency allocation depends mainly on
instinct, ruling, and practice. Further, Akintola et al. (1996) contended that formal techniques are
rarely used on many grounds; lack of knowledge and doubts on the suitability of these techniques.
M Otali, IA Odesola (2014) contended that the percentage so allowed for projects ranges between
5- 20 merely on the consultants’ will. In research on risk management of constructions in developing
countries, Bahamid and Doh (2017) found a heavy dependence on practical experience when assessing
contingency allocation. In Sri Lanka, the way cost categories are ranged very conservatively, resulting
in a contingency sum being far larger or smaller than what might be needed (Kanchana et al., 2009). A
considerable prominence is given to contract clauses in dealing with risk transference than managing
contingencies (Kanchana et al., 2009). Quite often, the Sri Lankan practice adds 10% of the total
value of the preliminaries and measured works (Jayalath, 2012).
Even though the term Contingency has been well established in the construction industry,
management of such contingency allocation was not sufficiently argued. Therefore, there is a need
to truly enhance contingency allocation practices to provide all-out benefits to all stakeholders. This
run-through starts with a proper allocation of a contingency sum within the budgeted amount at the
outset. In order to promote sensible allocation of contingency sums, it is crucial to recognize the
way it truly works in the construction industry compared to the theories developed in the academic
and research arena. Although there are many different theoretical approaches, there is no evidence
in empirical research as to why gaps between theory and practice exist. Hence, the question targeted
to address this research is” How to bridge contingency allocation management theory-practice gap
existing in the building construction industry”. This knowledge base is expected to pave the way
for greater synergy to better the construction industry. This research is aimed to broadly investigate
the theory-practice gap about contingency allocation in building projects. The objectives are to
determine the purposes of contingency allocation, the rationality behind methods used in ascertaining
contingency as an integral part of budgeting, and derive strategies to encourage the application of
more sophisticated tools related to contingency allocation. The scope of this research is confirmed
within the allocation tools and its application in building construction which has its risk profile poles
apart when compared with other types of projects.
LITERATURE FINDINGS
Literature findings are presented incrementally in the order of defined objectives and ultimately
reaches towards the research aim.
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RESEARCH DESIGN
A literature survey on theoretical development establishes the initial focus of the study. A qualitative
approach establishes credibility mainly when the context is recognizable to those who share the
experience and those who care for or treat them (Hammarberg , 2016). Followed by a discussion
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No CM tools Author
1 Controlled Interval Memory Cooper and Chapman (1985)
2 Different percentage to different components of an estimate Patrascu (1988)
3 Range Estimating Curran (1989)
4 Method of Moments Diekmann, 1983; Moselhi, 1997, Yeo
1990;
5 Range estimating using Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution K. T. Yeo (1990)
(TOPSIS)
6 Regression Merrow & Schroeder 1991; Aibinu &
Jagboro 2002
7 Probabilistic bill of quantities using expected value and standard deviation Silva, TLRT (1992)
8 Fuzzy Sets Paek, Lee, & Ock, 1993
9 Analytical Hierarchy Process Dey, Tabucanon & Ogunlana, 1994
10 Contingency Allocation and Management (CALM) model Ranasinghe (1994)
11 Traditional percentage Ahmad, 1992; Moselhi 1997
12 Individual risks – expected value Mak, Wong & Picken 1998
13 Influence Diagrams Diekmann & Featherman 1998
14 Elemental probability of cost overrun Woollett (1998)
15 Artificial Neural Networks Chen & Hartman 2000; Williams 2003
16 Monte Carlo Simulation Lorance & Wendling 2001
17 Factor Rating Hackney, 1985, Oberlander & Trost,
2001
18 A neural network approach to contingency allocation. Chen, Dong (2000)
19 Estimating using risk analysis (ERA) Mak and Picken (2000)
20 Probabilistic model considering chance of change orders and their impact Touran (2003)
21 Theory of Constraints Leach (2003)
22 Calculated on the level of confidence assuming a Poisson arrival pattern for change orders Baccarini (2004)
23 Statistical analysis of past projects Baccarini (2004)
24 A stochastic linear programming model and convex-concave utility model Thibadeau (2006)
25 Historical approach treating individual items that are most risk prone Günhan (2007)
26 Simulating iterative cycles of concurrent design and construction resulting from unanticipated Motawa (2007)
changes and their subsequent impacts.
27 A three-tier approach for risk analysis and contingency estimation Molenaar and Wilson (2009)
28 Integrating a fuzzy logic-based change prediction model with the system dynamics model of the Wilson (2010)
Dynamic Planning and Control Methodology (DPCM)
29 The sum of the ‘average risk allowance’ Mak, Wong & Picken (2010)
30 Risk analysis and fuzzy expert system Idrus, Nuruddin & Rohman, 2011.
31 Equivalent linear stochastic process to model the complex non-linear random variation with time Espinoza (2011)
of the technical and market uncertainty for projects.
32 Estimation and depletion of contingency over project durations resulting a possibility measure, Moselhi and Salah (2012)
agreement index, fussiness measure, ambiguity measure and quality fuzzy number index.
33 Focused on the contingency allocation from two perspectives; estimating and depletion of Ahmad (2012)
contingency over project duration
34 Compounded price contingency using inflationary indexes ADB (2014)
35 Optimism Bias and Top-down approaches Bhakshi (2014)
36 A fuzzy-set based model using indices, measures, and ratios to quantify and characterize these Salah and Moselhi (2015)
uncertainties.
37 Fuzzy expert system Tesfaye et al, (2016)
38 Integrated project key performance indicators with future risk perception Ayuba et al (2016)
39 Based on the activity’s contribution to the overall cost variance of the project, including cost, Hamad et al, (2016)
uncertainty, and criticality in schedule
40 Using dynamics of how project managers can spend their contingencies into three S-shaped cost Narbaev and De Marco (2017)
growth profiles by the Gompertz model using nonlinear regression
41 Multiple regression method can be applied as a reliable tool to predict contingency sums Lam and Siwingwa (2017)
42 Risk-based econometric models and Monte Carlo simulation Bhargava, Labi, Chen, Saeed, & Sinha,
2017.
43 Risks are adequately assessed together with their impact on the construction project Akinradewo et al. (2019)
44 A Monte Carlo simulation approach for both time and cost contingency allocation where Traynor & Mahmoodian (2019)
individual components are assigned a time and cost contingency.
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Project Type Cost overrun* Time overrun* Responsibility Documents dealt with
A apartment 68 100 Chief quantity Cost plan, Cash flow.
complex surveyor Contingency plan.
B hotel project 52 125 Cost controller Business plan.
Cash flow.
Bill of quantities
C Housing 73 250 Resident Cost report
development Engineer
D condominium 95 185 Project Engineer Cost plan, Cash flow.
project Contingency plan.
E Hospital 80 105 Project Quantity Bill of quantities
extension project Surveyor Monthly interim statement
F a factory and 40 40 Project Quantity Priced bill of quantities
warehouse Surveyor
G School extension 60 125 Project Engineer Monthly interim statement,
project financial report
* Percentage compared to initial contract sum and scheduled completion
on the initial findings of a pilot survey, this research has adopted multiple case studies and expert
interviews. In addition, a multiple case study in the form of a documentary review was executed
(Table 2). Multiple-case studies add observations for study without partaking in a quantitative terrain
(Jenny S, 2011). These are recently completed local building projects, the cost of which exceeded
100 million Rs.
Expert Interviews
Interviews are a data collection technique that can obtain in-depth views and reliable data from
competent interviewees (Fellows and Liu 2015); (Walliman 2011). When the interviewees are
highly qualified, their information could be true but hidden (Libakova et al., 2015). Thus, a series of
expert interviews were conducted to gauge the perception of knowledge gaps from an independent
perspective. Findings of the literature survey and site-based interview outcome provided the basis of
expert interviews conducted via zoom. Purposive sampling on inclusion criteria which is a minimum
of 25 years’ experience, continued until data saturation. Thirty-two experts in commercial and risk
management in construction projects were interviewed, eliminating the need to use additional screening
because respondents are highly qualified in the analyzed question.
Content Analysis
Interview findings were transcribed and analyzed using NVivo 11 code-based content analysis
software. The objective is to systematically transform a large amount of text into a highly organized
and concise summary of key results. The raw data from verbatim transcribed interviews form categories
or themes (Christein and Petra, 2017). In this approach, open coding steps were performed while
continuously comparing data alongside the interviews.
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during the interviews, and interviewees highly desired some strategies. Finally, the identified gaps
and strategies were combined ‘like-for-like’ to produce the broader knowledge gaps (themes). The
research findings are presented in Table 5.
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PHILOSOPHICAL GAPS Incentivize new approaches and appraisal for system change
1. A threat to conservative system that operates on the caveat EI Client participation in fisting new approaches
of precedence Compare and contrast projects with and without proper risk
2. ‘We offer what client wants’ mindset CS management applications
3. Risks are anyway inherent in projects LS/CS/EI Open up access for new knowledge via site-based workshops and
4. Latest knowledge is anyway far away in access LS/CS/EI pilot programs
5. Time is more valuable than money Introduce audit and appraisal of both time and contingency
6. This is not actual cash but a notional value CS allocation
7. CM awareness sessions are not relevant to all CM workshops CS Value is a function of cost and time. Educate the relationship
take time and CS/EI between these variables
additional cost CM is a part of agenda in cost meetings
8. Difficulty of selecting suitable CM Short term brainstorm sessions at office and site level
methodology for different construction CS CM implementation guideline
projects Pilot application, trial and error, back up option
9. CM new developments are of no practical use Theory works. Attitudinal change required, exploit the
EI commercial benefits and convert it a bonus scheme
KNOWLEDGE IMPLEMENTATION GAPS Identify potential professionals who are practicing CM, Mandate
1. Difficulty of gathering all practitioners for CM EI CM education for professionals
2. Tight work schedule allocated for consultants Govern CM knowledge sharing and controlling, Do proper
3. Myths of CM (no need CM for small projects) EI project planning
4. Conflicts within the project team LS/EI Post evaluation of projects and document lessons learned
5. No special monetary benefit for Improve attitude of the professionals to implement CM
consultant EI Prove benefit accruable on implementing CM
EI Introduce contractual provisions for consultants to get additional
payments for implementing VM
that there is a knowledge transfer problem. Respondents also contended that most of the findings
have less relevance to their day-to-day practice. This is wholly a knowledge production question that
insists on the importance of more practice-oriented and managerially relevant research.
The knowledge production problem centers upon how to generate managerially relevant research
better, to begin with. However, there must be a sufficient criterion to ensure relevance. The term
relevance refers to creating knowledge that is used to understand better phenomena relating to what
practitioners handle. Indeed, practitioners are better positioned to identify relevant research vacuum
(Campbell, Daft and Hulin 1982). This can often be promoted through incremental, rigorous, but
relevant studies. This concern has been expressed by professionals and scholars alike in the preceding
study.
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CONCLUSION
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