Futureinternet 15 00267
Futureinternet 15 00267
Futureinternet 15 00267
Review
A Survey on Pump and Dump Detection in the Cryptocurrency
Market Using Machine Learning
Mohammad Javad Rajaei * and Qusay H. Mahmoud
Abstract: The popularity of cryptocurrencies has skyrocketed in recent years, with blockchain
technologies enabling the development of new digital assets. However, along with their advantages,
such as lower transaction costs, increased security, and transactional transparency, cryptocurrencies
have also become susceptible to various forms of market manipulation. The pump and dump (P&D)
scheme is of significant concern among these manipulation tactics. Despite the growing awareness
of P&D activities in cryptocurrency markets, a comprehensive survey is needed to explore the
detection methods. This paper aims to fill this gap by reviewing the literature on P&D detection in
the cryptocurrency world. This survey provides valuable insights into detecting and classifying P&D
schemes in the cryptocurrency market by analyzing the selected studies, including their definitions
and the taxonomies of P&D schemes, the methodologies employed, their strengths and weaknesses,
and the proposed solutions. Presented here are insights that can guide future research in this field
and offer practical approaches to combating P&D manipulations in cryptocurrency trading.
Keywords: pump and dump detection; cryptocurrency; market manipulation detection; machine learning
1. Introduction
The development of cryptocurrencies has altered financial markets and the way we see,
Citation: Rajaei, M.J.; Mahmoud,
interact with, and deal with digital assets [1] because of their decentralized organization
Q.H. A Survey on Pump and Dump
and enhanced security. Compared to traditional fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies have
Detection in the Cryptocurrency
a variety of benefits, including transparency, immutability, and borderless transactions.
Market Using Machine Learning.
Future Internet 2023, 15, 267. https://
Several factors have contributed to the popularity of cryptocurrencies. To begin with,
doi.org/10.3390/fi15080267
blockchain technology, which is the basis for most cryptocurrencies, has made recording
and verifying transactions easier and more secure. Decentralized ledger systems eliminate
Academic Editor: Sk. Md. Mizanur intermediaries and centralized control, resulting in trust and transparency [2].
Rahman
Despite its popularity and decentralized nature, cryptocurrency has also become a
Received: 17 July 2023 breeding ground for fraud. Since there are no centralized regulatory authorities and trans-
Revised: 30 July 2023 actions are pseudonymous, cryptocurrency ecosystems are attractive targets for scammers.
Accepted: 9 August 2023 They exploit the lack of oversight and accountability to carry out these fraudulent practices.
Published: 11 August 2023 This is a threat to cryptocurrency investors and the overall stability of the market [3].
Fraudulent practices in cryptocurrency markets encompass various tactics. Spoofing
entails the placement and subsequent cancellation of orders. Stop hunting targets stop-loss
orders deliberately to influence price movements. Wash trading involves the execution of
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. fictitious transactions to deceive market participants about liquidity and volume. Another
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
notable scheme is P&D, where individuals or groups artificially inflate cryptocurrency
This article is an open access article
prices before selling their holdings for personal gains, resulting in substantial losses for
distributed under the terms and
new investors.
conditions of the Creative Commons
Fake initial coin offers (ICOs) [4] have also been used to carry out fraudulent activities.
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
A scammer creates ICO projects that look credible, promising high returns and cutting-edge
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
technology. However, these projects often turn out to be fraudulent and do not have any
4.0/).
real development behind them, so when investors invest their money, they find out they
have become victims of a fraud scheme.
It has also become increasingly prevalent to conduct phishing attacks against cryp-
tocurrency users. Using various methods, hackers gain unauthorized access to cryptocur-
rency wallets and steal funds by tricking users into revealing their private keys or login
credentials [5]. Social media analysis is of paramount importance in understanding and de-
tecting fraudulent practices in cryptocurrency markets, as it can provide valuable insights
into the manipulative strategies employed, enabling more effective measures against such
schemes [6].
As mentioned earlier, in the cryptocurrency market, there is no regulation or oversight,
which further exacerbates the problem of fraud. Although efforts are being made to estab-
lish regulatory frameworks and enhance security measures, cryptocurrencies’ decentralized
nature makes enforcing consistent standards and protecting investors difficult.
There are significant risks involved in these fraudulent activities for investors, and
they undermine the integrity of the cryptocurrency market in general. The detection and
prevention of such fraud is critical to protecting investors and maintaining the credibility
of cryptocurrencies. Thus, the purpose of this survey is to explore the existing literature on
fraud detection in cryptocurrencies. Our focus will be on detecting and analyzing P&D
schemes, which have been identified as one of the most common and damaging forms of
cryptocurrency fraud.
This study aims to provide valuable insights into the challenges and obstacles en-
countered in detecting and mitigating P&D schemes within the cryptocurrency ecosystem
through a comprehensive analysis of the methodologies, techniques, and advancements
presented in relevant research papers. In addition to recognizing the potential similarities
and transferability of techniques, we also mention other notable research articles that have
explored the detection of P&D schemes in various financial markets beyond cryptocur-
rencies. Eventually, the findings of this survey hold the potential to enhance the security
and reliability of the cryptocurrency market, thereby instilling greater confidence among
cryptocurrency investors.
This paper is organized into six sections. Section 1 introduces the topic and the motiva-
tion behind this study. Section 2 presents background and related works with a comparison
of previous surveys on market manipulation and P&D detection and gives the theoretical
background on cryptocurrency market manipulation and P&D schemes. Section 3 describes
the methodology of the survey. Section 4 presents the various methodologies utilized and
summarizes the results of relevant research. Section 5 presents and discusses the findings
along with opportunities, challenges, and ideas for future research directions. Finally,
concluding remarks are presented in Section 6.
2.1. Background
To gain a better understanding of market manipulation, specifically P&D and its effect
on cryptocurrencies, this section provides some definitions of the common terms used in
this area.
2.1.3.2023,
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15, 267 4 of 17
(a) (b)
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
(c) (d)
Figure
Figure3.3.Screenshots
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Figure 3. Screenshots
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Announcement; (b) Countdown; (c)
Countdown;(d) (d)Coin
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(thetarget
targetcoin
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outline).
Countdown; (d) Coin Announcement (the target coin is shown by green outline).
Figure
Figure 4.4.
Figure 4. BAR/USDT
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2.2.
2.2. Related
Related Works
Works
2.2. Related Works
In this section, the related surveys and systematic literature
literature reviews
reviews regarding market
InIn this
this section,the
section, therelated
relatedsurveys
surveysand
andsystematic
systematic literature reviews regarding
regarding mar-
mar-
manipulation
ket manipulationdetection
detectionin stock
in markets
stock and
markets cryptocurrencies
and are
cryptocurrencies mentioned.
are mentioned. Khodaban-
Khod-
ket manipulation detection in stock markets and cryptocurrencies are mentioned. Khod-
dehlou and Golpayegani
abandehlou andGolpayegani
Golpayegani[20] conducted a thorough
[20]conducted
conducted evaluation of theofliterature on market
abandehlou and [20] aathorough
thorough evaluation
evaluation of the
the literature
literature on
on
Future Internet 2023, 15, 267 6 of 17
manipulation detection from 2010 to 2020. The authors examined 52 key papers and evalu-
ated definitions, taxonomies, objectives, techniques, strengths and weaknesses, proposed
solutions, data mining approaches, and types of manipulations and anomalies. They ex-
amined several types of market manipulation including P&D. The study provided several
significant outcomes, including realistic solutions for manipulation detection, mapping
manipulations with anomalies, identifying obstructions and open questions in the field,
and identifying taxonomy criteria for trade-based manipulation. They contributed greatly
to showing how electronic financial markets are manipulated and how to detect them.
However, they only focused on the manipulations in the stock market, while the crypto
market as an electronic financial market was neglected in their study. Furthermore, they
indicated an imbalance in focus across various manipulations, with certain manipulations
receiving significantly more attention in the studies compared to others. Additionally,
they stated that more substantial and in-depth research is needed to develop practical and
accurate methods for detecting manipulation. In the survey, it was mentioned that the
study’s shortcomings include a limited time span (2010–2020), which imply the need for
future extended assessments.
Manipulation cases are increasingly complex, making it impossible to observe them
manually. To detect them, intelligent systems have been developed. Zulkifley et al. [21]
conducted a review that focused on methods and algorithm approaches in conventional
machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL). In their report, they stressed the impor-
tance of well-managed financial markets and the role that regulators play in preventing
illegal trading. They also emphasized on the effectiveness of using artificial intelligence
in detecting manipulations, particularly the preference for tick data over daily trading
data when detecting manipulations. It turned out that support vector machine (SVM)
classifiers were the most popular, and the detection rates were often higher with simpler
classes. Furthermore, the paper outlined challenges facing researchers, such as regulatory
differences, a lack of publicly available datasets and manipulation case listings, and the
need for algorithm performance improvements. To enhance detection capabilities while ad-
dressing regulatory and data challenges, the authors suggested implementing DL analysis
networks as well as incorporating advanced attention mechanisms and stock data from
multiple countries. Nevertheless, this study also focused on detecting manipulations in
stock markets and neglected the crypto market.
Regarding the cryptocurrency markets, Eigelshoven et al. [3] conducted a systematic
literature review to provide a comprehensive overview of cryptocurrency market manip-
ulation methods. Seven manipulation methods in cryptocurrency markets are listed in
their study, while six of them were already known from traditional markets. However,
they stated that there is a gap between academic research and market activities; there may
still be current market manipulation techniques that have not yet received academic atten-
tion. Furthermore, they identified six factors that lead to successful market manipulation
schemes. In the absence of regulation and standard know-your-customer (KYC) procedures,
exchanges play an important role in market manipulation. In the study, the authors suggest
that using the identified market vulnerabilities to develop regulation approaches can be
beneficial. Nevertheless, the study has some limitations, including a possible omission of
important studies and subjective selection of results.
Lastly, Table 1 summarizes the main scopes of these three studies compared to this
survey. Accordingly, Khodabandehlou and Golpayegani [20] and Zulkifley et al. [21]
focused on detecting manipulations only in the stock markets. However, our survey aims
to focus on the studies that detected a unique type of market manipulation called P&D
in the cryptocurrency markets. Moreover, although Eigelshoven et al. [3] provided an
overview of market manipulations in cryptocurrency, including P&D, they did not focus
on the methods to detect these manipulations. On the other hand, our study focused on the
methods used to detect P&D.
Future Internet 2023, 15, 267 7 of 17
Market ML for
Paper Title P&D Cryptocurrency Summary
Manipulation Detection
Cryptocurrency Market A comprehensive survey on cryptocurrency
Manipulation: A manipulation papers that provides a complete definition
yes yes no yes
Systematic Literature of different manipulations in cryptocurrency and
Review [3] identifies market vulnerabilities.
Market manipulation A survey of the literature on market manipulation
detection: A systematic yes yes yes no detection from 2010 to 2020. It identifies different
literature review [20] manipulations and focuses on trade-based manipulation.
A Survey on Stock Market
A survey that aims to discuss state-of-the-art automated
Manipulation Detectors
yes yes yes no methods for detecting manipulations. It also defines a
Using Artificial
manipulation taxonomy.
Intelligence [21]
A comprehensive survey that examines the recent
This Survey yes yes yes yes progress in using ML to detect and predict P&D in the
cryptocurrency market.
3. Methodology
Information on our review technique is provided in this section, including our search
strategies and sources, data collection, and extraction strategy.
3.4. Data
3.4. Data Collection
Collection Procedure
Procedure
We conducted
We conducted thethe selection
selection process
process in
in May
May 2023.
2023. The
The process
process of
of selecting
selecting papers
papers is
is
shown in Figure
shown in Figure 5. 5.
Figure 5.
Figure 5. Collection
Collection procedure.
procedure.
We
We employed
employed a comprehensive
comprehensive two-step data collection procedure, including sys-
tematic
tematic searching
searching andand snowballing
snowballing which involves
involves expanding the collected papers by
searching
searching their
their references
references toto find
find more
more related
related papers
papers not
not originally
originally retrieved
retrieved [34].
[34]. As
As aa
result,
result, we
we ensured
ensured that
that aa wide
wide range
range of
of relevant
relevant papers
papers were
were reviewed.
reviewed. To To begin
begin with,
with, aa
systematic
systematic search
search was
was conducted
conducted to to retrieve
retrieve aa core
core set
set of
of papers.
papers. Utilizing
Utilizing aa technique
technique
called
called snowballing, additional related papers were found by examining the
snowballing, additional related papers were found by examining the references
references ofof
these
these papers.
papers.
The
The first
first phase
phase included
included aa systematic
systematic search
search on
on Scopus
Scopus andand Google
Google Scholar
Scholar using
using
predefined search queries. Through the search process, 43 papers were initially
predefined search queries. Through the search process, 43 papers were initially retrieved. retrieved.
We then screened these papers based on predefined inclusion criteria. As a result of
applying our inclusion criteria, eight papers met the requirements for our survey, while
35 papers were excluded. Our first phase selection consisted of eight papers.
For the second step, we reviewed all the selected papers’ reference titles. As a result
of this process, 14 additional papers were identified as relevant to our study. After that,
we applied our inclusion criteria to each of these newly identified papers, and those that
fell outside our inclusion criteria were excluded. Consequently, 5 additional papers were
included, bringing the total number of selected papers for our survey to 13.
Future Internet 2023, 15, 267 9 of 17
4. Findings
Based on the survey methodology and data collection, 13 papers on P&D detection
using ML in cryptocurrency were found. In this section, in the form of a complete literature
review, we go through selected papers and mention models that have been deployed to
detect P&D and their results. Moreover, a brief description of all the studies that were
mentioned in this survey is provided in Table 3. Each study used a different data collection
and labeling policy, which affected their training approaches. Considering the specific
training methodologies used in each study, we have categorized these studies into three
groups: supervised approach, semi-supervised approach, and unsupervised approach.
AvgPrice, which involves the moving average of the closing price; AvgPrice-Max, which
involves the moving average of the maximal price in each chunk; AvgPriceMin, which
involves the moving average of the minimal price in each chunk. They used RF and logistic
regression (LR) for the classification task. Each RF model consisted of 200 trees with a max
depth of four. In all the models that were trained for different chunk sizes, RF showed
slightly better performance than LR. The results showed that a chunk size of 25 s and a
window size of 7 h achieved the best F1-score, and a chunk size of 5 s and a window size of
50 min had the best speed. Furthermore, in another study [37], the authors used the features
from their previous study and several new features, such as HourSin, HourCos, MinuteCos,
and MinuteSin, where the hour and minute of the first transaction in each chunk is encoded
with sine and cosine functions. This study used an RF model with 200 trees and a max
depth of five for each tree. The RF model showed outstanding precision results, but after
decreasing the chunk size from 25 to 5, recall dropped significantly. To solve this problem,
they suggested utilizing the AdaBoost model; this model showed stable precision and recall
and an improved F1-score. Also, the results showed that increasing the chunk size causes
an improvement of the F1-score.
All the mentioned studies have used classic ML algorithms to detect P&D. However;
some studies employed modern approaches, such as DL models, to predict P&D schemes.
For instance, Chadalapaka et al. [38], used the same input features as [37] in addition
to two other features, namely pump index and symbol. They utilized CLSTM and an
anomaly transformer as novel approaches to detect P&D schemes in cryptocurrencies. The
CLSTM model is made of convolutional layers which find the spatial features; max-pooling
layers; LSTM layers which find the temporal features; and finally, fully connected layers for
final prediction. The anomaly transformer introduces two novelties: an anomaly attention
module and a minimax optimization strategy. The anomaly attention module computes
series association and prior association. Minimax optimization consists of two phases:
during the minimize phase, the series association moves toward the prior association, and
during the maximize phase, the series association moves toward the original input. The
results demonstrated that these DL models outperform classic ML models and statistical
methods for detecting such fraudulent activities, where the anomaly transformer with a
chunk size of 15 s and F1-score of 93.6 showed the best performance. In another study,
Nghiem et al. [16] used market data consisting of OHLCV data and social data, which were
collected from official Reddit accounts, Facebook pages, and Twitter accounts to train four
types of models that detect P&D. Training, validation, and test sets contained 197, 55, and
54 pump events, respectively. They trained the models in different training situations in
terms of the type of training data (social, financial, or both) and lookback time window.
These models consisted of baseline (LR), CNN, Bidirectional LSTM, and CLSTM. The CNN
model is a convolutional neural network that is widely used in DL and is powerful in
feature detection. Bidirectional LSTM finds sequential dependencies in both directions in
an input sequence. CLSTM demonstrated the most promising performance and consistency,
while BLSTM models exhibited inconsistent performance across configurations.
Besides DL models, there are other modern approaches, such as XGBoost, that can be
utilized in the literature. For instance, Victor and Hagemann [39] utilized BTC trading pairs
data from Binance and chat histories from Telegram P&D groups to label the data. They
examined the characteristics of pump announcements, the timing of pumps, simultaneous
announcements across channels, and the price action following a pump. Three types
of pump events were identified: sustained pumps, short-term P&D events, and failed
pumps. They developed an XGBoost model to detect P&D events automatically, and they
achieved a high AUC of 0.995, demonstrating good sensitivity and specificity on the test set.
They created a dataset with positive and negative ground truth samples and engineered
features, such as volume bars, price change rates, and time differences. Applying the model
to 172 coins, it identified 612 pump-like events, primarily in low-market capitalization
cryptocurrencies, confirming its effectiveness in detecting suspicious activity. The unique
Future Internet 2023, 15, 267 11 of 17
aspects of this study are high-resolution data analysis, focusing on Binance, to explore
profitability, medium-term impact, and the utilization of ground truth for detection.
CCXT library [44]. This study detected three kinds of anomalies to analyze the data: price
anomaly, volume anomaly, and pump anomaly, which is defined as a co-occurrence of
previous anomalies. They detected anomalies with three different sets of parameters. The
results indicated that there are signals in the trading data that can help detect these fraudu-
lent activities. This study suggested that more regulated exchanges are less vulnerable to
P&D schemes. Furthermore, Mansourifar et al. [45] proposed a hybrid anomaly detection
based on distance and density metrics to address the challenge of anomaly detection in
time series data. An automatic threshold-setting method was developed by the authors for
distance-based anomaly detection, as well as the introduction of a new metric called the
density score for density-based anomaly detection. In conclusion, the authors discussed the
challenges of contextual anomaly detection and outlined their approach to transforming the
problem into a point anomaly detection task. According to their experiments, the hybrid
approach outperformed both density-based and distance-based approaches at detecting
P&D in top-ranked exchange pairs.
Previous studies with unsupervised approaches used classic ML algorithms to detect
possible P&D cases. DL can also be used to detect these cases. Bello et al. [46] trained
an LSTM-based auto-encoder on Bitcoin valuations using a low latency detection (LLD)
framework based on DL. The auto-encoder was then used to predict valuations on altcoins.
Since this study uses an unsupervised approach, they did not need ground truth labels for
training the model, but for testing the model, they collected 55 confirmed pump events
from Telegram groups to make this data relevant. They also retrieved OHLCV data and
the number of trades as input features to the model. This model was trained on the data
obtained one day before each of the 55 pumps. They also trained this model on the data
from two and three days before the pumps, and the results showed that the model that was
trained with data from one day before the pumps had the best performance compared to
the other two models. Finally, they performed anomaly detection on the predicted and
actual prices to find the anomalous points. The study highlighted the advantages of LLD,
such as practical deployment, unsupervised training, and fast inference, while eliminating
the need for future data.
Table 3. Cont.
5.1. Discussion
The purpose of this section is to present an overview of the 13 studies that investigated
the use of ML techniques in order to predict P&D manipulations in cryptocurrencies.
Table 4 presents the strengths and weaknesses of these studies. Classical ML models were
initially adopted by researchers because of their ease of implementation and the ability to
achieve satisfactory performance on smaller datasets without overfitting. Subsequently,
various studies explored the application of unsupervised ML approaches [13,43,45], while
others employed supervised ML techniques, such as RF or LR [15,35,36,40]. Additionally,
more recent investigations have utilized contemporary machine learning models, like
XGBoost and AdaBoost [37,39]. As research in this domain progressed, it facilitated the
development of larger datasets and the training of DL models, which have become prevalent
in addressing modern problem-solving challenges [16,38,42,46]
Table 4. Cont.
- Defining hour and minute features - Limited scope: analysis just on one
Morgia et al. [37] encoded with cosine and sine for exchange; insufficient split size
input data for test-set
Many of these studies lack a reliable P&D database. It is difficult to identify P&D
instances without a dataset containing confirmed P&D events. There were limitations due
to limited data availability in several studies [13,15,16,35–40,42,43,45,46]. A large amount
of data are required for effective training of ML models. It is possible that insufficient
and imbalanced data result in training models that lead to errors when predicting new
data, which could potentially have a negative impact on the authors’ conclusions and
arguments. In addition, it is possible for models performing well with small datasets not to
replicate the same results when applied to larger and more representative samples. As a
result, the model’s performance should always be evaluated using a substantial, adequate,
and valid dataset. There is also a notable limitation in some studies for utilizing a limited
number of models to address the issue [15,36,37,39,46]. Using only one model to predict
P&D activities makes it difficult to rely on the results since there is no benchmark for
comparing the model’s performance. The use of multiple models for tackling a problem
is not only beneficial in comparing their performance but also enhances confidence in
their effectiveness.
In addition, the use of a limited number of performance analysis criteria represents
another limitation [43,45]. The performance of a model cannot be adequately assessed by
relying on a single metric. Using multiple criteria to evaluate the model’s performance
allows for more robust conclusions to be drawn. A further limitation is studying a limited
Future Internet 2023, 15, 267 15 of 17
number of cryptocurrencies or using only data from one cryptocurrency exchange [35,42,43],
which might result in training models that detect patterns specific to a single cryptocurrency.
Our survey reveals that various articles have utilized different approaches to detect
pump and dump events, incorporating factors such as candle prices, trading volume,
and social media data. To defend against pump and dump, one important step would
be to educate cryptocurrency traders about the taxonomy of pump and dump schemes.
By increasing their awareness, traders can be more cautious and less likely to fall into
these traps. Additionally, the approaches highlighted in our survey can be employed to
predict the likelihood of a coin being subjected to pump and dump, providing traders with
valuable insights to make more informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.
6. Conclusions
The survey provided a comprehensive overview of the academic literature on P&D
detection in cryptocurrency. Conducting this research was necessary due to the fact that
P&D manipulation has become a serious challenge for cryptocurrency market participants,
followed by the increasing popularity of cryptocurrency, the number of coins, types of
blockchains, and the complexity of manipulation methods. Therefore, several studies
have addressed the problem of P&D detection using different approaches. This study has
provided guidance for researchers to utilize and optimize these methods to enhance P&D
detection. Most of the studies that we mentioned deployed classic ML models to analyze
Future Internet 2023, 15, 267 16 of 17
the market and social data. Among these models, RF showed a better performance. Several
of the studies deployed DL models that performed even better than classic ML models.
However, as there is a large number of trainable variables, these models need more training
data to be reliable.
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