Capacity Planning Guidance Document HG Rev

CAPACITY PLANNING ASSESSMENT & GUIDANCE
1. SCOPE OF THE DOCUMENT...............................................................................................3
1.1. HISTORY AND EVOLUTION OF CAPACITY PLANNING............................................................................3
2. THE CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS.............................................................................4
2.1. A PERFORMANCE-DRIVEN PROCESS AT NETWORK LEVEL....................................................................4
3. NETWORK PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (AS USED IN ONE ICAO REGION......5
3.1. AVERAGE ATFM DELAY PER FLIGHT...................................................................................................5

3.2. EFFECTIVE CAPACITY............................................................................................................................5
4. CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS WORKFLOW............................................................6
5. METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS FUTURE CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS....................8
5.1 ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CAPACITY: THE CAPACITY BASELINE.........................................................9

5.1.1 Reverse CASA: for ACCs with a capacity shortfall (delay producing).....................................10
5.1.2 NEVAC & ACCESS: for all ACCs, including those not producing delay.................................11
5.2 EXPECTED DEMAND ON THE FUTURE ROUTE NETWORK....................................................................14
5.2.1 Forecast Traffic Growth............................................................................................................14
5.2.2 Flight Increase Process (FIPS) and Airport capacity constraints............................................15
5.2.3 Future Route Network Evolution and Traffic Distribution.......................................................16
5.3 COST DATA AND ECONOMIC MODELLING...........................................................................................16
5.3.1 Capacity / Delay / Demand interaction and the Cost model.....................................................18
5.3.2 Optimum Cost Model ACC Capacity.........................................................................................19
5.4 CALCULATION OF THE REQUIRED CAPACITY PROFILES......................................................................19
6 THE CAPACITY PLANNING WORK PROGRAMME...................................................21
6.1 ACTIONS, DEADLINES AND RESPONSIBILITIES....................................................................................21

6.1.1 Capacity Planning Meetings.....................................................................................................24
6.1.2 ATFM and Capacity Report......................................................................................................25
6.1.3 Capacity Profile Scenario Development & Agreement.............................................................25
6.1.4 STATFOR Medium-Term Traffic Forecast................................................................................25
6.1.5 Medium-Term Capacity Profile Calculation.............................................................................25
6.1.6 Delay Forecast..........................................................................................................................25
6.1.7 Capacity Planning Task Force..................................................................................................26
6.1.8 Network Operations Plan (NOP), Summer...............................................................................26
6.1.9 European Medium-Term ATM Network Capacity Plan............................................................26
6.1.10 Capacity Baseline Assessment...................................................................................................26
7 CAPACITY PLANNING – THE BROADER VIEW..........................................................28
7.1 ENROUTE..............................................................................................................................................28
7.1.1 Future Developments.................................................................................................................28
7.2 AIRPORTS.............................................................................................................................................29
7.2.1 Airside Capacity Planning.........................................................................................................29
7.2.2 Delay Reduction Initiative.........................................................................................................29
7.2.3 Capacity/Demand Ratio Planning.............................................................................................31
7.2.4 Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM)...................................................................31
ANNEX A. LIST OF ACRONYMS...........................................................................................................32
ANNEX B. COMMONLY UNDERSTOOD DEFINITIONS.................................................................34
ANNEX C. THE CAPACITY PLANNING CALENDAR......................................................................35
ANNEX D. EUROCONTROL SUPPORT FOR LOCAL CAPACITY PLANNING..........................36
1 SUPPORT SERVICES..............................................................................................................................36
2 SUPPORT TOOLS...................................................................................................................................37
ANNEX E. AIRSPACE GROUPINGS FOR CAPACITY ASSESSMENT..........................................41
ANNEX F. The Capacity Plan.....................................................................................................................43
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1. Scope of the Document

This document describes the Air Traffic Management (ATM) network capacity planning
process as it has been developed in European region. The process supports national ATC
capacity planning, for enroute, terminal airspace and for airports, and identifies the tools
and methodologies used.
1.1. History and Evolution of Capacity Planning

The most pressing problem facing Air Traffic Management (ATM) in some ICAO regions in
the past decade has been to provide sufficient capacity to meet air traffic demand, while
improving safety and containing costs. For instance, capacity provision in Europe lagged
behind demand, leading to capacity shortfalls and delays to flights. This accentuated the
need to improve capacity planning at European ATM network level.
The European ATM network capacity planning is a fully co-operative effort, with all
stakeholders working closely with the EUROCONTROL Agency to ensure the timely
delivery of ATM capacity. This is done through a comprehensive, transparent and
interactive process, using various tools and ensuring cost-effective benefits from
measures planned at network and local level.
Between 1999 and 2006, the European Summer ATM capacity increased by 45% for a
traffic increase of 20%. Summer enroute ATFM delay decreased from 5.5 minutes per
flight in 1999 to 1.4 minutes per flight in 2006.
This achievement was due to the measures put in place individually by ANSPs and
collectively at network level, under the coordination of the EUROCONTROL Agency. The
coordinated approach to European-wide capacity planning led to a widespread focus on
capacity enhancement across Europe, with active participation of all stakeholders within a
performance-driven approach towards ATM planning.
2. The European Capacity Planning Process

2.1. A Performance-driven Process at Network Level
The EUROCONTROL Air Traffic Management Strategy for the Years 2000+ (ATM 2000+)
required the development of a performance-driven planning process to ensure that
performance requirements would be met and operational improvements implemented.
A Capacity Enhancement Function (CEF) was created in 2000, responsible for ensuring a
cohesive planning methodology, taking into account the whole European ATM network.
Central to this function is the annual capacity planning process, a cyclical process that
identifies and quantifies the capacity requirements for the short and medium-term. These
are assessed on the basis of the high-level capacity objective, which is to:
“provide sufficient capacity to accommodate the demand in typical busy hour
periods without imposing significant operational, economic or environmental
penalties under normal circumstances.”
This European network capacity requirement is translated into capacity requirements for
Area Control Centres (ACCs).
To support ANSPs in their local capacity planning, EUROCONTROL makes an annual
assessment of the capacity delivered and of the capacity required in the medium term for
the European Civil Aviation Conference area (ECAC) enroute ATM system, taking into
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account the agreed target delay, the traffic forecast, the expected traffic distribution over
the route network and the cost of air navigation service provision.
Five-year enroute capacity requirement profiles for ACCs are published annually. The
profiles are used by ANSPs as a basis for cooperative planning and provision of capacity
into the medium-term.
A reference capacity requirement profile is established for each ACC. Alternative
scenarios, based on high and low traffic growth on shortest routes and medium traffic
growth distributed on the current route network, are provided to support ANSPs in a more
interactive and flexible planning of ATM capacity and to better reflect local conditions.
Indications are given, from a network perspective, to ANSPs as to which scenario would
best match their local conditions.
Local implementation plans describe the agreed common actions to be taken by various
stakeholders, in the context of European ATM (EATM) to apply the Operational
Improvements to the European ATM system, as set out in the strategy.
The inter-dependencies at network level are extremely high in Europe and the capacity
planning process helps to ensure that integrated plans are developed locally and at
network level, enhancing and making the best use of the European ATM capacity, in a
cost-effective manner.
3. European Network Performance Indicators

To effectively determine future capacity requirements, it is necessary to monitor current
network capacity performance. The following indicators are used:
3.1. Average ATFM Delay per flight
The average Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) delay per flight is the ratio between the
total ATFM delay and the number of flights in a defined area over a defined period of time.
The ATFM delay is described as the duration between the last take-off time requested by
the aircraft operator and the take-off slot allocated by the CFMU following a regulation
communicated by the FMP, in relation to an airport (airport delay) or sector (enroute
delay) location.
The average ATFM delay per flight is measured and monitored at network level over the
whole ECAC area, as well as for individual ACCs and airports.
3.2. Effective Capacity

“Effective capacity” is defined as the traffic volume that the ATM system could handle with
one minute per flight average enroute ATFM delay. This capacity indicator is derived
from a linear relationship between delay variation and traffic variation.
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4. Capacity Planning Process Workflow
Figure 1: The Annual Capacity Planning Process
Tra ffic & De la y

Se c to r c a p a c ity, sta tistic s (C FMU) Curre nt Annua l ATFM &
c o n fig u ra tio n
a n d o p e n in g Situa tio n Ca pa c ity Re p o rt
sc h e m e d a ta ACC Ca p a c ity Ba se line s Ana lysis C FMU/ C EF)
(ANSP/ C FMU) (C EF) (C EF)
PAST PERFORMANCE
FUTURE OUTLOOK
Ec o n o m ic Fo re c a st
Tra ffic Future Tra ffic
Use r De m a n d
Fo re c a st De m a nd a nd Fu tu re Ro u te Ne tw o rk (APN/ RNDSG )
Airp o rt C a p a c ity Pla n s
(STATFO R) Distrib utio n p e r Exp e c te d Ho u rly Airp o rt C a p a c itie s (AO E)
Sta te s’ Tra n sp o rt Po lic ie s
ACC (C EF)
Asse ssm e nt o f Future ACC

Po lic y o n De la y / Ca pa c ity Re q uire m e nt
C a p a c ity ta rg e ts (PC ) Pro file s (C EF)
LCIP Ca p a c ity Ne two rk

De m a n d Evo lu tio n d a ta se t (C EF) Ca pa c ity Pla nning Pla ns Op e ra tio ns Pla n
Me e ting s (ANSP/ C EF) (ANSP/ SIS/ C EF) (C FMU)
NEVAC Asse ssm e n t (ANSP/ C EF)
Im p le m e nta tio n Euro p e a n Me d ium Te rm

Ac tio ns (ANSP) Ca pa c ity Pla n
Asse ssm e nt(C EF)
5. Methodology to Assess Future Capacity Requirements
The objective of a medium term planning exercise is to provide predictions of the ATM
capacity requirement for the ATM system. To do this, the Future ATM Profile (FAP) was
developed by EUROCONTROL.
FAP is a set of modelling and analysis tools comprising ATFM simulation facilities as well
as spreadsheet and macro-based analysis and reporting tools, that assesses and
quantifies how much capacity is delivered by specific airspace volumes within the current
ATM system, and evaluates the current and future capacity requirements, at ACC and
sector group level.
Step 1: In order to provide an accurate prediction of the capacity requirements of the
European ATM system, it is necessary to know the current capacity offered. FAP
establishes a capacity baseline for each ACC and defined sector group.
Step 2: The next task is to provide a prediction of the future demand on each ACC (and
defined sector group) over the next 5 years, according to the expected traffic growth and
distribution over the future route network.
Step 3: FAP carries out an economic analysis, balancing the cost of capacity provision
and the cost of delay, on the assumption that each ACC is operating at or close to its
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economical optimum, and that the target level of delay has been achieved.
Step 4: FAP produces, for each ACC and defined sector group, a 5 year capacity
requirement profile. Percentage increases with respect to the measured capacity
baseline are provided.
Figure 2: Key FAP processes:
Assessment of current capacity: the Capacity Baseline

There are several methods to evaluate current ACC and sector group capacity, known as
the capacity baseline. These have been developed and improved over a number of years
and the suitability and effectiveness of each depends on whether or not the ACC being
measured generates a significant amount of ATFM delay. The most accurate for delay
producing ACCs is Reverse CASA, with NEVAC being the preferred option for non delay-
producing ACCs until ACCESS was developed in 2004. The ACCESS methodology was
developed to enable the baseline of all ACCs to be assessed using one methodology, and
to ensure a continuity for ACCs that move from one category into the other.
The use of all three baseline assessment methodologies will continue for a transition
period until the ACCESS process has been fully validated.
A comparison of the different methodologies is given in the table and fully described in the
paragraphs below.
Method Advantages Disadvantages Comment

Reverse
CASA  Extremely accurate  Useful only for delay-  Analysis of ATFM delay
measurement of ATM producing ACCs
capacity offered during  Excludes delays caused
the measured period  Iterative simulation by weather and/or
takes time special events
 Takes network effect into
account
 No input from ANSPs
NEVAC
 Can be used for all  Does not take the  Uses CFMU data on
ACCs network effect into available sector
account configuration and
 Measures the potential declared capacities
capacity that could be  Results depend on the
offered during the period accuracy of CFMU data
 Quick and easy  Cannot measure offered
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capacity, only potential

ACCESS
 One method for all ACCs  Requires proactive input  ANSP must provide
from ANSPs to ensure detailed information on
 Continuity for ACCs that accurate data actual sector opening
change categories
schemes and sector
 Iterative simulation
 Measures capacity takes time
capacities (or confirm
offered during the period accuracy of CFMU
environment archive)
 Takes network effect into
account
5.1.1 Reverse CASA: for ACCs with a capacity shortfall (delay

producing)
The estimation of current ACC capacity is based on an analysis of the ATFM delays
observed during the analysis period. The days chosen for study correspond to a set
whose observed delay correlates well with the observed yearly delay distribution. A series
of Summer days are chosen, because in most ACCs this corresponds to the period of
peak demand and therefore represents the ideal benchmark for the definition of future
performance criteria.
The capacity measurement is made by Reverse CASA on a daily basis over 2 AIRAC
cycles during the Summer season, excluding delays for weather, special events etc.; the
result may not fully correspond to the maximum capacity, as it can be influenced by
restrictions associated with reduced configurations.
The initial objective within FAP is to determine the equivalent ACC ‘observed’ capacity i.e.
the number of aircraft which could pass through the ACC whilst generating the same
ATFM delay as was actually observed. In flow management terms it is as though the ACC
is regulated by a single regulation over the whole ACC.
Unfortunately, the CASA algorithm cannot simply be employed using an inverse function
i.e. given delay figures it cannot provide capacity values. Hence for each ACC it is
necessary to consider the delay which would have been observed for a hypothetical
estimate of capacity.
The calculated delay is then compared to that which was observed and an iterative
modification cycle commences until the CASA determined delay within a particular ACC
for an estimated value of capacity converges to that observed for the day in question. This
methodology is referred to within FAP as the “Reverse CASA”.
When performing this iterative analysis, it is necessary to consider the ATM system as a
network. This is the advantage of FAP, which recognises the interaction between the
capacity and demand for each ACC and the observed delay in other ACCs. If the correct
delay has been found for a given ACC, then the process of changing the estimated
capacity in another ACC may affect the newly observed delay in the previously correct
ACC – this is the so-called network effect. Hence the iteration is performed
simultaneously for all ACCs and only when each ACC gives the same calculated delay as
that observed in the CFMU, is the process considered to be terminated.
This iterative convergence process within the network is achieved by the GASEL (Generic
ATFM Simulator Engine and Library) ATFM modelling tool which is an integral part of FAP
and has an implemented copy of CASA. The convergence to the correct delays for each
ACC within the network can typically be the result of several hundred ATFM simulations.
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5.1.2 NEVAC & ACCESS: for all ACCs, including those not producing delay
5.1.2.1 NEVAC
The Network Estimation & Visualisation of ACC Capacity tool (NEVAC) is a software
application using data stored in the CFMU on sector opening schemes, capacities and
flight plans. As well as ACC capacity baselines, this tool is able to detect bottleneck
sectors and to evaluate how new configurations or changes to sector capacities will affect
capacity ACC and the entire ECAC network. It has been developed to be simple and
efficient to use. More information on its uses and availability can be found in Annex D
paragraph 2.1.1.
NEVAC uses the Fast ACC Capacity Evaluation Tool (FACET) methodology to measure
the baseline of ACCs that do not produce delay. NEVAC determines the potential
capacity of an ACC or sector group from the declared sector capacities and configurations
that are defined in the CFMU database.
The NEVAC capacity indicator is theoretical maximum, whereas the Reverse CASA
capacity indicator is calculated for a given delay (per ACC, or at ECAC level). The
standard NEVAC value is the maximum potential capacity i.e. the capacity of the optimum
configuration, measured over a selected period (normally P3H).
FACET methodology: The simulation homogeneously increases the traffic for each
traffic flow from its current level until one of the sectors becomes saturated (i.e. the
number of entries into this sector equals the declared sector capacity). At this point, the
traffic flow throughout the whole ACC is the maximum that can be handled without
causing ATFM delays (assuming the current traffic pattern is maintained).
The example below shows an ACC composed of 3 sectors, crossed by 3 traffic flows.
Sector EAST is crossed by 2 flows giving traffic of 5 +15 = 20 flights/hr. It reaches its
declared capacity (28 flights/hr) when the traffic increases by 40%. The point at which the
first sector reaches its declared capacity is considered to be the point at which the ACC
would begin to generate delay if any more traffic were added. The zero delay ACC
capacity is therefore equal to the traffic going through the ACC at this point (e.g. 30 + 40%
= 42 flights/hr).
Figure 4: NEVAC (FACET) methodology
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5.1.2.2 ACCESS
The ACCESS methodology was developed to enable the capacity baseline of non-delay-
producing ACCs to be measured using Reverse CASA.
The use of Reverse CASA means that a non delay-producing ACC must be placed in
traffic conditions where it produces delay. Therefore to determine the ACCESS capacity
indicator for each ACC on a daily basis, traffic is homogenously increased over the whole
ECAC area until the delay threshold is reached in the studied ACC.
At each step of the traffic increase, ACCESS creates a new regulation scheme for the
studied ACC. This is done using traffic volume capacities and configuration data (sector
opening schemes) provided by ANSPs.
The network effect outside the studied ACC will not change, provided that the capacity/
demand ratio remains constant in every sector outside the studied ACC. Therefore, each
time traffic changes in the studied ACC, sector capacities outside the studied ACC are
increased or decreased in line with the traffic change.
Note that the ACCESS delay threshold per ACC is arbitrary and changing it does not
greatly affect overall results; it has no connection to the PC enroute average ECAC delay
target of 1 minute per flight.
Figure 5: ACCESS Process
OPENING SCHEME + TV CAPA ORIGINAL DECLARED REGULATIONS
INSIDE STUDIED ACC GLOBAL TRAFFIC OUTSIDE STUDIED ACC
Demand for TVs in the studied ACC

Regulation Scheme Builder
Regulations for the studied ACC Modified Traffic Regulations outside the studied ACC
CASA
Average delay per flight in the studied ACC
NO
Delay > 0.5 mn Increase Global Traffic
YES Adjust capacities of outside regulations
Modified Traffic + Corresponding Total Delays in all the ACCs
REVERSE CASA
ACC capacity indicator
It is important to note that both ACCESS and NEVAC give good results only when
the input data (declared sector capacities and configuration opening schemes) are
accurate and complete.
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5.2 Expected Demand on the Future Route Network

Medium-term capacity requirements at ACC or sector group level can only be assessed
once we have a picture of the expected traffic volume and distribution over the future route
network.
The expected demand at ACC or sector group level is assessed by the FAP tool, from:
 the forecast traffic growth;
 the future route network evolution and traffic distribution, simulated by an airspace
modelling tool;
 airport capacity constraints, assessed from information gathered from various sources
on current and planned airport capacities.
Figure 6: Assessment of expected demand
5.2.1 Forecast Traffic Growth

In the western parts of the EUR Region, the EUROCONTROL Statistical Forecasting
service (STATFOR) processes air traffic statistics at European and regional level, and
produces traffic forecasts. These forecasts take into account different sets of assumptions,
e.g. economic growth, airline productivity, competition from other means of transport, as
well as the ‘maximum aircraft movements per year’ at congested airports.
The STATFOR medium term traffic forecasts are based on “traffic flows” between a
number of Origin/Destination Zones (ODZ). An ODZ corresponds to a major airport or
group of airports. STATFOR provides traffic growth forecasts for different ODZ pairs and
for the countries overflown. STATFOR models approximately 100 individual ODZ pairs
giving around 9000 individual flows.
STATFOR also provides a short term traffic forecast. This, combined with the alternative
capacity profiles based on the high and low traffic forecast, enables ANSPs to formulate
capacity plans according to local traffic requirements and variations.
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5.2.2 Flight Increase Process (FIPS) and Airport capacity constraints

The traffic increase is made within FAP according to the STATFOR forecast, by “cloning”
existing flights in such a way as to preserve the daily demand distribution. This is based
on the hypothesis that the existing demand distribution represents the desired exploitation
(in time) of the various markets served by the airspace users.
STATFOR takes into account the most congested airports in its forecast, through the
‘maximum aircraft movements per year’, but it is important that FAP, when performing the
traffic augmentation, has information on major airport hourly capacities.
Valid information on airport capacity, current and planned, is essential for planning the
development of the European air traffic system. Attempts to obtain accurate information
on airport capacities from local authorities have met limited success but there is an
ongoing initiative to improve the quality of airport capacity information used in the FAP
model and to fully integrate airports into the capacity planning process. This is being done
through wide consultation with ANSPs, airport operators and users.
When faced with demand which is likely to exceed the airport capacity constraints, the
FAP model will, through the FIPS process:
 spread peak traffic demand by shifting the creation of new flights, by up to one hour, to
a non-saturated period;
 ‘displace’ further new demand to the nearest non-saturated airport available in the
same ODZ, that has been identified by the ANSP as a suitable alternative;
 not accommodate further new demand when no alternative airport can be identified in
the same ODZ.
Full integration of major airports into the European capacity planning process will ensure
that capacity enhancement measures are implemented where and when they will provide
maximum benefit to the European ATM network as a whole; improved accuracy and
availability of airport capacity plans will ensure the timely development of airspace
capacity enhancement measures (see paragraph 5.2 for more information).
Current STATFOR Figure 7: FIPS process
Traffic Demand % increase per ODZ
Random Selection
of a Flight to clone
Clone the flight

within ± 15 min
time window
YES NO
Clone the flight

within ± 1 hour Airport Hourly
time window Capacity
YES
Constraints
NO
Clone another
flight on the
YES same city pair
NO
Clone another Unaccommodated

YES flight in the Demand
same ODZ NO
Current
Cloned Flights Traffic Demand
Future Traffic
Demand
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5.2.3 Future Route Network Evolution and Traffic Distribution

The capacity requirement for an ACC or sector group is clearly dependent on the
distribution of traffic over the European network, horizontally and vertically. The demand to
be accommodated in the future is determined, taking into account the desire of users to fly
the most direct routes and optimum vertical profiles, in the context of the anticipated
evolution of the route network.
Changes to the route network and traffic distribution can induce significant changes in
terms of the demand (and therefore the required capacity) at individual ACCs, even during
periods of reduced traffic growth.
It is assumed that aircraft will follow the shortest routes available on the network between
city pairs according to the future route network, on essentially unconstrained vertical
profiles. Nevertheless, some existing structural traffic distribution scenarios are retained.
There is no ‘dispersion’ of flights between equivalent routes between city pairs.
Traffic flows respecting these assumptions are simulated by the SAAM tool, and serve as
an input to the FAP simulations. The result of the SAAM simulation is a horizontal and
vertical traffic distribution over the future route network, allowing the determination of the
unconstrained demand in each ACC.
SAAM can also simulate the effect of aircraft operators choosing to fly the cheapest
available routes, but although this information is provided to ANSPs, it is not used in the
capacity profile calculation because of the unpredictability of service provision costs
beyond the short term. The transition of future demand towards shorter and cheaper
routes is likely to have a significant impact in several ACCs and increased interaction with
airspace users will allow a better reflection of the expected distribution of the traffic
demand on the network.
5.3 Cost Data and Economic Modelling

Capacity requirements for the short and medium-term are assessed on the basis of the
high-level capacity objective of the ATM2000+ “to provide sufficient capacity to
accommodate the demand in typical busy hour periods without imposing significant
operational, economic or environmental penalties under normal circumstances.”
The criteria for deciding the level of penalties to be considered ‘significant’ are set by the
EUROCONTROL PC, based on the recommendations of the Performance Review
Commission (PRC), the Stakeholders Consultative Group (SCG) and of the
EUROCONTROL Agency.
Capacity has a cost, but insufficient capacity, which in turn generates delay, has an even
larger cost. Both capacity and delay costs are borne by airspace users. It is therefore
necessary to determine the level of ATC capacity which can be justified from a cost point
of view i.e. the optimum trade-off between delay and cost of ATC capacity.
The delay cost used by FAP is an average of International Air Transport Association
(IATA) and PRC data, which FAP employs in conjunction with its knowledge of the traffic
mix in order to determine the cost for delay in each ACC. Changing the cost of delay has
minimal effect on future capacity requirements because of the stable delay target.
The capacity cost (i.e. the cost for provision of ANS) used by FAP is taken from data
provided by the CRCO. This cost is assumed by the FAP model to vary linearly – a fact
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supported by CRCO analysis and confirmed in the 7 th Performance Review Report

(PRR7).
While the cost data used is provided by the CRCO, it is essential that each ANSP
indicates how this cost is spread among the ACCs under its responsibility.
The cost of capacity and the cost of delay are regional parameters depending on:
 total capacity provided
 marginal capacity cost (ATC complexity, price index, equipment, etc)
 total delay generated
 delay sensitivity (network effects, hourly traffic distribution)
 cost per minute of delay (traffic mix)
Consequently, each ACC has its own capacity cost and delay cost curves. These curves
interrelate as network effects change according to changes in capacity offered at other
ACCs.
The total cost curve (the sum of the delay cost and the capacity cost) determines the
optimum cost model capacity for each ACC for the current traffic demand. However, to
assess capacity requirements for the future, it is necessary to incorporate the future
demand into the model in an updated total cost curve for each ACC. The following
paragraphs describe this process.
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5.3.1 Capacity / Delay / Demand interaction and the Cost model

The relationship between capacity and delay is not linear. More precisely, when the
demand is close to the maximum available capacity, there is a saturation of the ACC,
leading to a very sharp increase in delay.
A simple capacity/delay curve can represent how delay and capacity interact with each
other for a given ACC and for a given level of traffic demand.
Delay
(minutes
per flight)
Demand is constant (e.g. current demand)
Figure : The Capacity/Delay Curve
Capacity (flights per hour)
This capacity/delay curve is used to elaborate the cost model. For the best trade-off
between the cost of delay and the cost of capacity provision, and to ensure consistent
targets, economic data are introduced for each ACC, and a total cost curve is derived:
Figure 8: The Cost Model
All the graphs are valid for a given

demand (e.g. the current demand)
M€ a) The cost of delay is derived from

the delay capacity curve, using the
operating costs of aircraft
operations. Typically, each minute
Delay Cost (a) of delay is considered to generate a
certain cost.
M€
Capacity Cost (b)
M€
Total Cost (c)
b) The cost of Air Traffic Services, as

recorded by the CRCO, is assumed to be
a linear function of the capacity provided.
c) The total cost curve is the sum of the
delay cost and the capacity cost.
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5.3.2 Optimum Cost Model ACC Capacity

For a given demand, the total cost curve is used to determine the Current Operating Point
and the Optimum Operating Point, as represented in Figure 10.
The Optimum Operating Point, which gives the lowest total cost of operation, represents
the best trade-off between the cost of providing capacity and the cost of delay. This point
represents the Optimum Capacity and optimum delay level (from a total cost point of view)
for a particular ACC.
If each ACC were operating at its optimum point, it would correspond to the optimum level
of ATFM delay at overall ECAC level.
Figure : ACC Capacity: The Operating Point
Current operating point 2
Optimum operating point

Cost of
shortfall
M€
Capacity cost
Current operating point 1

Cost of
surplus
Delay cost
optimum Capacity (flights per hour)
shortfall
surplus
The Current Operating Point represents the cost of operating at current capacity.
Either the ACC capacity is above the optimum capacity (Operating Point 1), indicating a
capacity surplus, or the ACC capacity is lower than the optimum capacity (Operating Point
2), indicating a capacity shortfall.
The next step is to carry out the economic analysis or cost optimisation for the future
traffic demand.
5.4 Calculation of the Required Capacity Profiles

After the economic analysis or cost optimisation for the future traffic demand is carried out,
the final step in the process takes place. FAP carries out another iterative ATFM
simulation by increasing capacity at the ACC offering the best Return on Investment
(ROI), until the overall delay target of 1 minute per flight enroute is reached.
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Figure : Iterative ATFM network simulations with best ROI to achieve target delay
When the agreed target delay is reached, the capacity target for each ACC is expressed
in terms of the capacity increase that was necessary in order for the convergence to be
achieved. Simulations are carried out for the final year of the planning cycle and for any
year that there are changes to ACC or sector group configurations. Capacity levels are
interpolated for intermediate years.
The capacity target level corresponds to the cost optimum delay for the ACC, to meet the
overall 1 minute average enroute delay target adopted by the PC, and represents the ACC
capacity required to cover:
 the expected demand, and (if appropriate),
 the current capacity shortfall, i.e., the difference between the optimum capacity and the
current capacity (as described in the previous section).
Figure : Current v. Target capacity
Capacity
(flights per
hour)
Adjusted targets Target

Surplus Capacity capacity
Year N increases
Optimum targets year N + 5
Optimum Capacity
Year N
Sub-optimum
targets
Capacity Shortfall
Year N
time
Year N Year N + 5
Figure 12 shows an ACC with a capacity surplus (blue), an ACC with a capacity shortfall
(red) and an ACC with optimum capacity (green). For the ACC with optimum capacity,
the requirement is only to cover the forecast traffic increase. For the ACC with a capacity
shortfall, the requirement is to cover both the shortfall and the traffic increase, and for the
one with a surplus, the requirement is to achieve the optimum capacity in the medium
term, without costly over provision.
In addition to the capacity profile, each Air Navigation Service Provider receives from the
Agency the values corresponding to the optimum delay for their ACC/s from a network
perspective.
If the network delay is close to the target delay, the optimum delay at ACC level is an
effective tool to identify areas that still have a capacity gap.
- 16 -
6 The Capacity Planning Work Programme

This chapter describes the different phases of the annual work programme and lists the
required actions and responsibilities. Details of each event are provided after the table.
6.1 Actions, Deadlines and Responsibilities

EVENT ACTION EUROCONTROL ACTION ANSPS
Oct- Dec CEF to provide all relevant data to Prepare the draft capacity plan
enable the ANSP to prepare a first
Capacity Planning
draft of the local capacity plan  prior to the meeting with CEF
meetings for the short-
and medium-term  as data becomes available, &
Ensure the participation of both
 at least 2 weeks before the planning and operational staff at
meeting the meeting
Nov - Dec CEF to complete the capacity Finalise the capacity plan for the
chapter of the LCIP, in coordination LCIP
Completion of the
with the LCIP Contact Person
Capacity Plan for the  by the end of November
LCIP  by the end of December
Nov -Feb CEF to coordinate and agree with Review and agree the ACC
ANSPs the content with respect to performance analysis content
ATFM and Capacity
the analysis of ACC performance provided by CEF
Report for previous
year developed in  by end January  by end January
coordination with
ANSPs and the CFMU CEF and CFMU to finalise report
 by end February
January CEF to prepare the airspace Provide CEF with details of

scenario data for profile calculation configuration changes (planned or
Agreement and
following coordination with ANSPs proposed) during the 5 year
development of the
planning cycle for ACCs and
medium-term capacity  by end February requested sector groups
profile scenarios
 by the end of January
February STATFOR to convene meetings To attend the STATFOR user

and provide the forum for all group meetings if possible and if
Release of STATFOR
relevant information to be included not, to ensure that all information
Short- and Medium-
in the Spring forecast relevant to the traffic forecast is
Term Traffic Forecasts
 during the calendar year provided to STATFOR
 by the end of December
STATFOR to provide the new
Medium-Term traffic forecast
 by the end of February
STATFOR to merge the short- and

the medium-term traffic forecasts
 from 2008
- 17 -

March CEF to calculate the optimum delay To agree the capacity profiles and
for each ACC optimum delay per ACC for use
Calculation of medium-
 by mid March as a basis for the local capacity
term capacity profiles
plan
(including optimum
delay per ACC) CEF to calculate the capacity  by end April
requirement profiles for ACCs and
requested sector groups
 by mid March
March CEF to make the delay forecast for To ensure that the local capacity
the coming Summer season and plan is up-to-date and accurate
Calculation of the
the next 2 years and to communicate any changes
delay forecast for the
to CEF and the CFMU
coming Summer  by mid March
season and next 2  before mid February
years
March CEF to organise the CaPlan TF, To attend the CaPlan TF, with the
invite contributions, compile the appropriate planning &
The annual meeting of
agenda and write the report operational participation and be
the Capacity Planning
prepared to share best practice
Task Force
capacity planning
April CEF to provide a consolidated To ensure that up-to-date

version of all local capacity plans to capacity information for the
Publication of the
the CFMU coming Summer season is made
Network Operations
 by end February available, and that any changes
Plan for the coming
subsequent to the release of the
Summer Season
CFMU to incorporate the Summer LCIP are communicated to both
capacity plans into the NOP CEF and the CFMU for inclusion
in the NOP
 by mid March
 by end February
APN & AOE to provide to the CFMU
information relevant to the coming  as they occur, throughout the
Summer season Summer season
 by end February
CFMU to release the first version

 by mid March
May CEF to coordinate bilaterally with To inform their SCG/OCG

ANSPs and agree the profiles that member when the capacity
Coordination and
will be used as the basis for local profiles and optimum delay per
agreement of medium
capacity planning in the medium- ACC have been agreed for use as
term capacity profiles
term a basis for the local capacity plan
 by end March  prior to Spring meeting of
SCG/OCG
CEF to present the capacity profiles
to the Spring meeting of the
SCG/OCG for approval
 May meeting of SCG/OCG
- 18 -

June CEF to collect and consolidate all To ensure that the medium-term
the local medium-term capacity capacity plan is accurately
Publication of the
plans and complete an analysis of reflected in the LCIP and that any
European Medium-
the expected situation at network subsequent changes are
Term ATM Network
and local level communicated to CEF
Capacity Plan
 by end of April  by mid March
July EUROCONTROL to release

ECIP published document
(including ACC  by end of July
capacity requirement
profiles)
Jul - Aug CEF to inform ANSPs of the To confirm that fully accurate
reference dates and request sector capacity and opening
ACC/sector group
confirmation of data quality scheme data will either be directly
capacity baseline
 by the end of June provided to CEF or will be
assessment period
available from the CFMU archive
database
 1 week before the reference
period
CEF to calculate the ACCESS

baselines for ACCs and requested
sector groups, according to the
airspace structure scenarios
defined for the capacity profiles
 by end August
In addition to the ACCESS baseline To ensure that the sector capacity

assessment, CEF to calculate the and opening scheme data within
capacity baselines using NEVAC for the CFMU database is sufficiently
all ACCs and using Reverse CASA accurate for the NEVAC baseline
for those ACCs that generate ATFM assessment
delay  two AIRAC cycles before the
 by end August start of the AIRAC containing
the measurement period
Sep - Oct CEF to communicate the baseline To agree the capacity baselines
results to ANSPs on a bilateral for the next planning cycle and to
ACC capacity
basis for discussion and agreement inform the SCG/OCG
baselines coordinated
 By mid September representative
with the ANSPs
 prior to SCG/OCG Autumn
CEF to present the agreed ACC meeting
baselines to the Autumn meeting of
SCG/OCG
 October meeting of SCG/OCG
- 19 -
6.1.1 Capacity Planning Meetings

Each Autumn, the EUROCONTROL Agency’s Capacity Enhancement Function visits the
majority of ANSPs to collect information on capacity plans for the next five years and the
coming Summer season. It is essential to the improvement of ATM capacity at overall
network level for each ACC to have a robust capacity planning process and a realistic
capacity plan.
ANSPs that are responsible for ACCs operating at or close to capacity limits are visited
each year, with others being visited on request, or when their capacity situation changes.
ANSP capacity plans for each ACC are published in the LCIP, together with other relevant
capacity information (e.g. capacity delivered during the previous Summer season, future
capacity requirements, expected performance in the medium term and the current and
expected capacity of major airports).
Prior to each meeting, CEF provides the ANSP with a set of data to enable them to
prepare the preliminary capacity plan, tailored to local conditions. The data set includes
the following:
 A report and analysis of capacity delivered during the previous Summer season
 The value of the (Summer) capacity baseline indicator for each ACC and requested
sector group
 The optimum delay for each ACC, to meet the network target delay
 A set of 5-year ACC capacity requirement profiles for high, low and medium traffic
growth (shortest available routes over the future route network) and for the current
route network
 Similar capacity requirement profiles for requested sector groups
 Detailed medium-term STATFOR traffic forecast
 The latest STATFOR short-term traffic forecast per State
 Short and medium-term delay forecast for each ACC
 Differences in demand between current routes and shortest routes and current routes
and cheapest routes scenarios
 Other relevant capacity information
ANSPs prepare a first draft of the capacity plan for the meeting, which is discussed and
updated in an interactive session, using the NEVAC and SAAM tools. To facilitate the
discussion and ensure a realistic capacity plan, ANSPs should ensure the presence of
both planning and operational staff.
The plan should detail the capacity enhancement actions planned each year of the
capacity planning cycle, together with a realistic assessment of the contribution of these
initiatives to the overall annual capacity increase. Full guidance for formulation of the plan
is given in Annex F: The Capacity Plan.
After the meeting, CEF completes the capacity chapter of the LCIP, in coordination with
the EUROCONTROL LCIP contact person. Once approved by the ANSP, this is
incorporated into the LCIP, which is then approved and signed at State level.
- 20 -
6.1.2 ATFM and Capacity Report

This annually released document provides information and analysis of the traffic in
Europe, the delays derived from Air Traffic Flow Management for ACCs and airports, and
the capacity offered by the ANSPs during the previous calendar year. It is jointly compiled
by CEF and the CFMU.
6.1.3 Capacity Profile Scenario Development & Agreement

The number of capacity profile simulations that have to be run is linked to the number of
changes to airspace structure planned during the 5 year period and to the overall network
target delay. In a totally stable environment, both would remain the same and it would be
necessary to evaluate only one scenario. However, this is rarely the case – either ACC
configurations are planned to change, or the delay target changes over the period.
CEF needs to complete a comprehensive data preparation before the end of February, so
that the simulation can be run as soon as the new STATFOR medium-term traffic forecast
is available. ANSPs must therefore provide to CEF, before the end of January, detailed
information concerning configuration changes that are planned or proposed within the next
5 years.
6.1.4 STATFOR Medium-Term Traffic Forecast

STATFOR publishes an updated Medium-Term traffic forecast each year at the end of
February. Prior to release, the STATFOR user group (comprising various EUROCONTROL
units, ANSPs, airport operators, users, user groups) meets to discuss and incorporate any
issues that may affect the forecast.
STATFOR will merge the short and medium-term forecasts from 2008, to avoid the
confusion of having two different growth values forecast in the same year. This will
provide a more stable planning environment.
6.1.5 Medium-Term Capacity Profile Calculation

The capacity profile calculation is made as soon as the STATFOR medium-term traffic
forecast is released. A range of capacity profiles are calculated for each ACC / sector
group and percentage increases are linked to the capacity baselines that were assessed
the previous Summer. The optimum delay per ACC is also calculated.
Note that if the capacity requirement profile is below the capacity baseline for the whole of
the planning cycle, there will never be a recommendation for an ACC to reduce capacity,
but rather to avoid further costly investment.
6.1.6 Delay Forecast

The delay forecast for the coming Summer season and for the next 2 years is calculated
by CEF as soon as the STATFOR forecast is released. It is based on the medium-term
traffic forecast and the ACC capacity plans (taken from the LCIP, as well as subsequent
updates brought to the attention of CEF).
- 21 -
6.1.7 Capacity Planning Task Force

The capacity planning task force (CaPlan TF) is chaired by the Capacity Enhancement
Manager and comprises ANSPs (planning & operational staff), aircraft operator user
groups and interested EUROCONTROL units (e.g. CFMU, APN, STATFOR, AOE, PRU).
The CaPlan TF meets once a year in the Spring to discuss the results of the previous
year’s baseline & profile calculation, proposed improvements to the capacity planning
process and to the capacity planning toolset, and to enable participants to share capacity
planning best practice.
6.1.8 Network Operations Plan (NOP), Summer

All available information relevant to the coming Summer season is provided in this one
document produced by the Agency. It is the result of a coordinated effort by several
EUROCONTROL units, ANSPs, airports, airspace users and the military. A living
document, it is released by the CFMU in March and updated on-line throughout the
season.
CEF consolidates all the local capacity plans for the coming Summer season and provides
this information to the CFMU in a format suitable for inclusion in the NOP. ANSPs should
notify all subsequent changes to Summer capacity plans to both CEF and to the CFMU for
incorporation into the NOP, which is a living document, amended throughout the Summer
season.
6.1.9 European Medium-Term ATM Network Capacity Plan
This document, developed in the context of DMEAN, provides a medium-term outlook of
the capacity situation, by comparing the capacity requirements with capacity enhancement
measures planned at network and ACC level. The plan identifies potential bottlenecks
and gives an early indication to States and ANSPs of the need to plan for additional
resources, of network interactions and of the need to implement improvements at network
level.
6.1.10 Capacity Baseline Assessment

 Derivation of ACCESS capacity baselines for the Summer
The reference period for the assessment of the capacity baselines takes place over 2
weeks during the period mid July to mid August. The actual dates are decided by CEF
each year and communicated to ANSPs by the end of June.
The achievement of reliable results using the ACCESS methodology requires high quality
input data on actual opening schemes and sector capacities during the stated period. It is
essential that at least 1 week before the assessment period, ANSPs:
 positively confirm that the data available at CFMU during the reference period will be
of the required standard, and may be extracted for ACCESS measurement, or, if this
is not the case,
 ensure that a process is in place at the ACC, to collect data of the required standard
for each day of the reference period, if possible using NEVAC.
In NEVAC it is possible to insert, as a scenario, the actual opening scheme and the
real capacities used during the measurement period. These scenarios can then be
exported in a Excel file and sent to CEF by email.
- 22 -
Alternatively, the information can be provided using Excel (see the example below).
Note that one spreadsheet should be provided for each ACC (or sector group)
assessed, for each day of the simulation period (e.g. for 1 ACC and 1 sector group,
there would be 28 sheets).
SECTOR NAME
(or COLLAPSED SECTOR NAME) TV NAME OPEN CLOSE CAPACITY
06:00 07:00 30
S1 TV1 10:00 11:00 35
16:00 17:00 30
06:00 07:00 32
10:00 11:00 36
S2 TV2
11:00 12:00 32
17:00 18:00 36
S3 TV3 06:00 16:00 38
S4 TV4 11:00 16:00 40
S5 TV5 16:00 17:00 39
S6 TV6 17:00 18:00 40
TV7 00:00 06:00 50
S7
18:00 23:59 51
Full sector names are required Full TV names are required

ex: LSAGINE instead of INE
S1, S2 & S3 are elementary sectors
S4 = S1+S2
S5 = S2+S3
S6 = S1+S3
S7 = S1+S2+S3
 Derivation of capacity baselines with NEVAC and Reverse CASA

The derivation of capacity baselines with NEVAC (previously PACT) and Reverse CASA
will continue until the ACCESS methodology has been fully validated. This monitoring
period will ensure that the ACCESS methodology is consistent and that results are
coherent and reliable, even when an ACC changes from one that does not generate
delay, to a delay-producing ACC. ANSPs should ensure that the sector configuration and
capacity data held in the CFMU database is accurate for NEVAC baseline assessment.
- 23 -
7 Capacity Planning – the broader view
A prime objective of the Dynamic Management of the European ATM Network (DMEAN)
programme is to reduce the network level of delay. The Summer delay target set by the
Provisional Council in 2000 is applicable only to enroute delay which had been increasing
year on year, whereas airport delay had remained more or less constant.
The structured capacity planning process in place for ACCs has shown benefit through a
reduction in enroute ATFM delay to close to target levels, and a year-on-year increase in
the effective capacity of the European network.
By Summer 2006, compared to Summer 2000, enroute ATFM delay had dropped by 54%
for a traffic increase of 15%.
Nevertheless, in 2005 and 2006, both enroute and airport delay again increased and it
became apparent that enroute capacity planning should be further strengthened and that
airports should be fully integrated into the capacity planning process.
7.1 Enroute
Following the consultation and approval process, the ACC capacity requirement profiles
are used by ANSPs as a basis for their local capacity plans. The range of profiles
provided by the Agency (high, medium & low traffic growth, using shortest routes on the
future route network and medium traffic growth using current routes), together with the
STATFOR short term traffic forecast, allows the ANSP to plan according to specific local
conditions and traffic growth.
The enroute capacity planning process is mature and fully accepted by ANSPs. The
Agency provides a sophisticated toolset and full support to ANSPs for the formulation of
the local capacity plan (see Annex D).
7.1.1 Future Developments

The enroute capacity planning process is continually being refined. Planned
improvements include the merging of the short and medium term traffic forecasts and the
further development and consolidation of the demand & airspace data repository. These
improvements will enable better analysis of the benefits of capacity enhancement
initiatives prior to implementation.
Demand / Airspace Data Repository

The database will allow users to select archive or future traffic samples for a particular
date and airspace, at State, ACC or sector level. Historical data will be CFMU archive
data and forecast traffic samples may be distributed over either the current or the future
(planned) route network and airspace structure, drawn from CFMU, STATFOR and SAAM
data. ANSPs will have the additional facility to make changes to sector boundaries and
configurations and to test proposed improvements prior to fast- or real-time simulation.
The data will be available for download in a format suitable for analysis using the tools
commonly used in the airspace development and capacity planning process (e.g. NEVAC,
SAAM).
- 24 -
7.2 Airports
Until recently, airport capacities were taken into account only with respect to the
constraints that congested airports place on the capacity of the enroute network. This was
in part due to the fact that airport delay had remained more or less constant and partly due
to the difficulty of coordinating with so many different stakeholders – airport operators
(usually independent, commercially driven), Air Traffic Control, and various aircraft
operators and user groups.
Nevertheless, an airport must engage in airside capacity planning to meet future demand
and sustain growth. Airports are being integrated into the capacity planning process,
requiring more visibility of future capacity planning. The primary objective of this process
is to provide a structure for identifying and targeting the constraints that limit current or
future capacity.
7.2.1 Airside Capacity Planning

This dynamic (rolling five year) process starts by identifying the possible imbalance
between demand and capacity and then determining which constraints impact the airports
ability to remedy this situation. The process maps current and forecast traffic demand
against known constraints, and incorporates information on all areas associated with the
development of the airport's airside. To ensure that this information is accurate and
reliable, key stakeholders from all areas of the airport are involved, including as a
minimum airlines, apron control, ATS provider and airport operations.
The benefit to the ATM network of airside capacity planning in the medium term (5 to 7
years) is reduction of reactionary delays, due to airports’ improved capability to meet
future traffic demand.
Capacity at a number of airports is at a premium and action is needed to ensure that
intrinsic system capacity is not superseded by demand at a particular moment on the day
of operations.
Provided that airport stakeholders accept the capacity declaration process, based on an
accurate capacity assessment and have an efficient slot monitoring process in place, then
in normal conditions slot regulations should be a rare event. However, experience
indicates that regulations and delays are a daily reality, even in normal conditions.
Airport delay should not be considered in isolation nor disassociated from airside capacity
issues in general nor in particular from the runway capacity declaration process which is a
critical element. Providing sufficient airside capacity is a key element in any airport delay
reduction process.
7.2.2 Delay Reduction Initiative

The EUROCONTROL Airport Operations and Environment business division (AOE) has
developed a structured delay reduction initiative as the platform and rational link towards
capacity enhancement initiatives, as there is little point in trying to enhance capacity or
efficiency without analysing the real reasons for delay. Bringing former planned activities
into the context of delay reduction supports the DMEAN activities, because of the unique
relationship between delay and capacity.
- 25 -
Delay reduction and capacity enhancement measures focus initially on releasing airside
capacity in the short term, and should enable committed stakeholders to meet capacity
demand in the medium term.
The resulting Capacity Enhancement Action Plan for the respective stakeholders includes
short, medium and long term activities and aspects, and ensures continuity and a smooth
transition between short and medium term phases.
The most-constraining airports identified within the European Network are selected for
delay analysis, with respect to:
 the historic evolution of delays from 2000 onwards, and
 the actual reason(s) for delays.
The following specific issues are considered:
 What is meant by ATC/Aerodrome delays? (The capacity declaration should reflect
ATC/Aerodrome limits.)
 Who is involved in the capacity declaration process and is there buy-in from all
stakeholders?
 What are the reasons for excess traffic over and above the capacity declaration?
 How is extra traffic such as General Aviation accommodated?
 How many off-slot operations are there and how are these dealt with?
 Is there an efficient slot monitoring committee?

The DMEAN Airport Implementation Coordination Group coordinates the airport capacity
enhancement activities. This group includes:
 concerned EUROCONTROL units, including the CFMU, eCODA, Airspace, Network
Planning & Navigation business division (APN), the Capacity Enhancement Function
(CEF) and the Airport Operations and Environment business division (AOE),
 the Performance Review Unit (PRU),
 IATA,
 ACI, and
 EUACA
The DMEAN Airport Implementation Coordination Group has agreed on the following
coordinated activities planned for the short- and medium-term, for the most constraining
airports:
 Capacity Enhancement Exercises,
 Delay Analysis,
 Capacity/Demand Ratio Planning, and
 Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM) gap analysis and
implementation
- 26 -
7.2.3 Capacity/Demand Ratio Planning

Although annual airside capacity has no operational value, as with enroute ACC capacity,
it is very important for planning purposes. Some airports publish detailed analysis of
demand and capacity, taking into account hourly and seasonal variation. For others,
starting from the hourly declared capacity, it should be possible to identify and define
available practices1 to determine annual declared capacity.
The Agency collects and identifies the medium term annual demand forecast data from
selected airports. The capacity/demand ratio is computed on a yearly basis for the three
traffic growth scenarios (STATFOR baseline, high, low) and presented graphically to
visualise the trend and anticipate any lack of capacity in the medium term.
7.2.4 Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM)

The concept of Airport CDM brings together all the main airport partners (ATC, airport
operator, airlines, CFMU and ground handlers), to share operational data in a transparent
way and achieve common situational awareness. Enhanced decision making processes
lead to maximum operational efficiency and best use of the available airport infrastructure
and resource management.
Airport CDM is a low cost and efficient solution to many of the issues facing airports.
EUROCONTROL has produced a comprehensive implementation manual providing
guidance for understanding Airport CDM and initiating a local CDM implementation
project, covering project management and implementation as well as all elements of
Airport CDM,: information sharing, turn-round process, variable taxi-time calculations,
collaborative management of flight updates, pre-departure sequencing and CDM in
adverse conditions.
1
- Number of slots per unit of time
- Maximum hourly declared capacity x hours of strong activity per day
- Estimating Annual Capacity as 60% of an H24 operation at saturation capacity
- Applying coefficient for peak hours and seasons
- 27 -
ANNEX A. List of Acronyms
ACC: Area Control Centre

SCG: Stakeholder Consultation Group
AIRAC: Aeronautical Information Regulation And Control
ANS: Air Navigation Services
ANSP: Air Navigation Service Provider
ARN: ATS Route Network
ATC: Air Traffic Control
ATFCM: Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management
ATFM: Air Traffic Flow Management
ATM: Air Traffic Management
ATM 2000+: EUROCONTROL ATM Strategy for the Years 2000+
ATS: Air Traffic Services
CAMACA: Commonly Agreed Methodology for Airport Capacity Assessment
CAPAN: Capacity Analyser
CASA: Computer Assisted Slot Allocation
CEF: Capacity Enhancement Function
CEM: Capacity Enhancement Manager
CESC: Chief Executives Standing Conference
CFMU: Central Flow Management Unit
CP: Contact Person
CRCO: Central Route Charges Office
CTOT: Calculated Take Off Time
DMEAN Dynamic Management of the European Airspace Network
DOp: Directors of ATS Operations Meeting
EAG: EUROCONTROL ATFM Group
EATM: European ATM
ECAC: European Civil Aviation Conference
ECIP: European Convergence and Implementation Plan
EEC: EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre
EOBT: Estimated Off-Block Time
ETFMS: Enhanced Tactical Flow Management System (ETFMS)
FAP: Future ATM Profile (set of simulation tools for capacity evaluation)
FIPS Flight Increase ProcesS
FMD: Flow Management Division
FMP: Flow Management Position
- 28 -
GASEL: Generic ATFM Simulator Engine & Library (FAP component)

IATA: International Air Transport Association
ICO Improved Configuration Organiser
LoA Letter of Agreement
LCIP: Local Convergence and Implementation Plan
MECA: Model for Economical evaluation of Capacities in the ATM system (FAP)
NEVAC: Network Estimation & Visualisation of ACC Capacity
NORVASE: Tool to establish the criteria for determining sector capacities (NORmativa
VAlidacion SEctores (AENA)
ODZ: Origin /Destination Zone (STATFOR)
P1H Peak one Hour (demand)
P3H: Peak three Hour (demand)
PACT: Portable ACC Capacity evaluation Tool
PC: Provisional Council
PIATA: Performance Indicators Analysis Tool for Airports
PICAP Runway Capacity Research Programme (Programa de Investigacion de
Capacidad de Pista (AENA)
PRC: Performance Review Commission
PRU: Performance Review Unit
RAD Route Availability Document (published by CFMU)
RAMS: Reorganised ATC Mathematical Simulator
ROI: Return on Investment
SAAM: System for traffic Assignment and Analysis at Macroscopic Level
SIMMOD: Airport and Airspace Delay Simulation Model
SIS: Stakeholders Implementation Service
STATFOR: Statistics and Forecasting
TAAM Total Airspace and Airport Modeller
TACT: CFMU Tactical system
UAC: Upper Area Control centre
- 29 -
ANNEX B. Commonly Understood Definitions

Elementary Sector: Primary component of the airspace structure, one or more of
which may be combined to form a sector. In some cases the elementary sector can be
the same as the operational sector; in other cases, the elementary sector is never open
operationally without being combined with one or more other elementary sectors.
Sector: Primary operational component of the airspace structure that can be
considered as an elementary capacity reference of the ATM system. A sector is made up
of one or more elementary sectors.
Sector Group: Group of sectors that strongly interact with each other through close
and complex coordination, satisfying the DMEAN concept of operations.
Traffic Volume: Airspace component based on traffic flow, that serves as a reference
to design the ATC sectors.
Sector capacity: The maximum number of flights that may enter a sector per hour
averaged over a sustainable period of time (e.g. 3 hours), to ensure a safe, orderly
and efficient traffic flow. Some ANSPs manage sector capacities tactically over a
shorter period of time (e.g. 15 minutes). However, for global assessment purposes, the
hourly figure is used as standard.
Declared Sector Capacity or Monitoring Value: The value the ANSP declares to the
CFMU as the maximum number of flights per hour that can enter a sector before the
application of an ATFM regulation becomes necessary. Several values may exist -
depending on the ATC environment at the time (airspace, equipment, traffic pattern,
staffing, weather etc.). The FMP defines this information and advises the CFMU, so that it
can provide the ATFM service. The value can change according to the situation at the
ACC.
Declared Traffic Volume Capacity: The capacity for a given period of time for a
given traffic volume, as made known by the ANSP to the CFMU, so that it can
provide the ATFM service. As with Sector Capacity, the value can change depending on
the ATC environment at the time at the ACC.
ACC/ Sector Group Capacity: The theoretical maximum number of flights that may
enter an ACC or sector group per hour, over a period of time (e.g. 3 hours), without
causing excessive workload in any of the sectors. This capacity indicator is used for
capacity planning and monitoring purposes and has no operational value. The indicator is
calculated mathematically using a validated methodology.
Capacity Baseline: The value of the capacity indicator (see above) for the ACC and
defined sector groups
Capacity Profile: The evolution of required capacity over the five-year planning
cycle, considering certain assumptions, for a specified volume of airspace (ACC or
defined sector group), in terms of absolute demand (flights per hour) and annual
percentage increases. These values are published annually in the ECIP and are used
as a basis for local capacity planning by ANSPs.
Network Effect: The network effect is the phenomenon where regulations placed on parts
of the network affect the demand structure observed in other parts of the network.
Network effects range from simple interactions of cause and effect, to more complex
interactions between groups of sectors, where causes are repeatedly re-triggered by
effects, involving several oscillations before a stable equilibrium is reached. Affected
sectors could be adjacent, in the same region, or distant sectors located on the far side of
the ECAC zone.
- 30 -
ANNEX C. The Capacity Planning Calendar
DATE MAIN EVENTS
Oct- Dec Short- and Medium-Term Capacity Planning meetings with ANSPs
Nov -Jan ATFM and Capacity Report for previous year developed in coordination
with ANSPs and the CFMU
Jan Agreement and development on the medium-term capacity profile

scenarios
Jan - Mar European ATC Capacity Plan for coming Summer season finalised
Feb Publication of ATFM and Capacity Report developed jointly with the
CFMU
Feb Release of STATFOR Medium-Term Forecast
Mar Calculation of medium-term capacity profiles (including optimum delay

per ACC)
Mar Calculation of the delay forecast for the coming Summer season and
next 2 years
Mar The annual meeting of the Capacity Planning Task Force
Mar Publication of the Network Operations Plan for the coming Summer
Season
May Coordination and agreement of medium-term capacity profiles
Jun Publication of the European Medium-Term ATM Network Capacity Plan
Jul ECIP published (including ACC capacity profiles)
Jul-Aug ACC/sector group capacity baseline assessment period
Sep-Oct ACC capacity baselines coordinated with the ANSPs
Oct Capacity baselines agreed and presented to stakeholder consultative

groups
- 31 -
ANNEX D. EUROCONTROL Support for Local Capacity

Planning
European capacity planning is a fully cooperative process between EUROCONTROL,

States, ANSPs, airspace users and other stakeholders.
To facilitate coherent medium term planning, EUROCONTROL monitors capacity offered at
local and network level and provides support and assistance to ANSPs and airports for
capacity assessment and planning. A number of tools have been developed and are
available to ANSPs.
1 Support Services
The ECIP is published annually in two parts:
 The ATM Implementation Perspective, which sets out the operational, technical and
institutional improvements that have to be applied to the European ATM network to
meet clearly defined performance requirements in certain key ATM performance areas
– safety, capacity, cost-effectiveness and the environment.
 The Detailed Objective Descriptions part describes each of the pan-European, multi-
national and harmonisation implementation objectives and the associated stakeholder
lines of action. Each objective is linked to one or more of the operational
improvements contained in the ATM2000+ Strategy.
The range of 5-year ACC capacity profiles that serve as a basis for the local medium-
term capacity plan are published in the ECIP ATM Implementation Perspective.
The LCIP provides a mechanism to align national ATM planning with specific ECIP
objectives concerning safety, capacity and cost-effectiveness. With respect to capacity,
ANSPs indicate in the LCIP their planned capacity enhancement measures, and quantify
the expected annual capacity increase.
The Capacity Enhancement Function (CEF) initiates the consultation process by visiting
ANSPs and ATC units, to discuss capacity enhancement measures, best practice and
other means to optimise and/or increase capacity at local level. Comprehensive data on
past performance and future traffic growth and distribution is provided to ANSPs in
advance, and the capacity plan is finalised in a fully interactive session, using the capacity
planning and assessment tools available (NEVAC, SAAM).
In addition to the capacity planning meetings in the Autumn, CEF can provide fully
interactive NEVAC/ SAAM tutorials focussing on specific ACCs. ANSPs should request
such assistance directly with CEF through the Capacity Enhancement Manager, Mr
Razvan Bucuroiu [email protected] .
The Airport Operations and Environment (AOE) business division can provide assistance
with capacity assessment and enhancement for airports. This should be requested
directly with AOE through Mr Gregory de Clercq, [email protected]
Implementation support is available from the EUROCONTROL Stakeholder Implementation
Service (SIS), and should be requested through the designated LCIP Contact Person.
- 32 -
2 Support Tools
2.1 Computer Modelling

The EUROCONTROL Agency has tools to address the issues of route network and
airspace (including sectorisation) design, the distribution of traffic both in the air and at the
airport and the assessment of capacity.
2.1.1 NEVAC: Network Evaluation & Visualisation of ACC Capacity
NEVAC is a EUROCONTROL software application, using data from the CFMU and
STATFOR and integrating PACT, FIPS (Flight Increase Process) and ICO
(Improved Configuration Organiser). NEVAC is able to compute ACC capacity
indicators, to detect bottleneck sectors and to evaluate the effect of new
configurations or changes to sector capacities on the capacity of an ACC and on
the network.
NEVAC has been released for use by planners, capacity managers, flow
managers and operational staff responsible for managing ACC and Network
capacity. It can:
 Visualise ACC related data (demand, sector / TV capacities, configurations,
delay, routes etc.)
 Optimise configuration opening schemes using ICO
 Calculate future traffic samples with FIPS
 Measure protection and penalisation network interactions
 Create virtual ACCs and evaluate airspace reorganisation options between
groups of ACCs
 Calculate ACC baseline capacities for a given period
 Perform detailed analysis of demand structure, network interactions,
configuration suitability, saturation and ATFM delay all of which affect ACC
capacity
 Analyse ACC demand in terms of its structure, load distribution and constituent
flows
NEVAC has been extensively tested on the following operating systems: Windows
98, 2000 and XP. Microsoft Excel version 2000 or higher is required (included in
Office 2000). Minimum system requirements: Pentium 2, 128 MB RAM, 50 MB free
hard disk space. Required free hard disk space depends on how many databases
you wish to work with at any one time - 60 MB is sufficient for 2 to 3 AIRAC cycles.
A full description of NEVAC methodology is given in the Quick Start User Guide,
accessible via the website www.EUROCONTROL.int/nevac
Questions? Send an email to [email protected]
- 33 -
2.1.2 SAAM: System for traffic Assignment & Analysis at a Macroscopic level
SAAM is a European Airspace Design Evaluation tool developed by
EUROCONTROL. It is used to model, analyse and visualise route network and
airspace developments with current or future traffic data, at local, regional and
European-wide levels. SAAM is an integrated system for wide or local design,
evaluation, and 2, 3 or 4D presentation of air traffic airspace scenarios and traffic
distribution. SAAM is a quick strategic airspace modeller that can be used for
preliminary survey, for testing and analysing various options and for preparation
of scenarios to be exported to fast-time and/or real-time simulators.
2.1.3 CAMACA: Commonly Agreed Methodology for Airport airside Capacity

Assessment.
CAMACA is a model developed by EUROCONTROL, that enables measurement
and correlation of airport potential (runways, taxiways, aprons and stands) in
terms of capacity and demand.
2.1.4 PIATA Plus: Performance Indicators Analysis Tool for Airports.

PIATA Plus is a PC-based software model developed by EUROCONTROL that
provides a way of analysing efficiency indicators to aid management decisions,
improve runway throughput, and enhance airside capacity.
2.1.5 PICAP: Runway Capacity Research Programme (Programa de Investigacion de

Capacidad de Pista
PICAP is a system developed by AENA to determine the runway capacity at an
airport
2.2 Simulation Tools

While addressing the macroscopic needs, the above models raise issues requiring
answers from a different type of model; towards the microscopic end of the scale,
fast time models can be characterised as either Air Traffic Flow models or ATM
models. The distinction is subtle but significant.
The flow models have been developed specifically to assist the CFMU in its task and
future development. In this case the traffic is passing through well known and
defined airspace structures.
The ATM models have been designed to help ANSPs plan and develop the ATC
issues. Changes to airspace structure, ATC procedures and systems can be fully
assessed through fast-time simulation.
- 34 -
2.2.1 Generic ATM Simulator Engine & Library GASEL

GASEL is an arithmetical simulator adapted to strategic and pre-tactical studies
and simulations in the fields of airspace design, airspace management and
ATFM. It replaces the AMOC and COSAAC simulators, and is used:
 to undertake macroscopic studies on the enroute ATC and airport
infrastructure, demand patterns and capacity issues in order to assess the
overall performance of the air traffic management system;
 to conduct studies on the optimisation of the current flow management
system, define and evaluate new concepts for flow management and control;
 to undertake economic and institutional studies on the ATM system.
GASEL functionalities are:

 Traffic increase or decrease
 Capacity baseline computation
 ACC Capacity profiles evaluation
 Delay forecast
 Statistical computation
 Traffics comparison
 Traffic smoothing
 Data transformation
The following functionalities of COSAAC are included:

 Flow selection
 Rerouteing
 Profiling
 Operational disturbances
 Flow growth
2.2.2 CAPacity ANalyser (CAPAN) and Reorganised ATC Mathematical Simulator

(RAMS)
The ATM models have been designed to help assist ANSPs plan and develop
the ATC issues, i.e. refine the airspace design, build the sectors, describe the
procedures and explore the impact of new tools. Examples of these models are
the Capacity Analyser (CAPAN) and Reorganised ATC Mathematical Simulator
(RAMS), for en-route aspects. All of these help define the throughput of a given
piece of airspace or an airport and hence the capacity under given conditions.
Many of the analytical and Fast Time models are available in support of EATM
within the Capacity Enhancement Function, the Airport Throughput Programme,
the Airspace & Flow management and Navigation Business Division and the
EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre (EEC).
2.2.3 Total Airspace and Airport Modeller TAAM

TAAM is the only commercially available gate-to gate simulator of full-scale
airspace and airport operations. The Total Airspace and Airport Modeller can
simulate high volumes of air traffic in great detail. The simulator realistically
reproduces all ground movements until take-off. All phases of a flight then follow:
from take-off through large portions of controlled or uncontrolled airspace to
- 35 -
landing and ground movements after arrival.
2.2.4 Airport and Airspace Delay SIMulation MODel (SIMMOD™)

An industry standard analysis tool used by airport planners and operators, airlines,
airspace designers, and air traffic control authorities for conducting high-fidelity
simulations of current and proposed airport and airspace operations. SIMMOD™ is
designed to "play out" airport and airspace operations within the computer and
calculate the consequences of potential operating conditions. It has the capability
and flexibility to address a wide range of "what if" questions related to airport and
airspace capacity, delay, and efficiency.
2.2.5 NORVASE (NORmativa VAlidacion SEctores)

NORVASE is a tool developed by AENA that establishes criteria for the
determination of sector capacities using standardised procedures and specific
software to optimise the design and efficiency of the control sectors. NORVASE
records real data captured directly in the control position, including all the control
and communication actions between sectors carried out by the executive controller
and/or planner.
From the processing of the above information, the following data is obtained:
 Statistics of the control actions and
 Workload and capacity (movements/hour),
This information is analysed by a group of ATM experts (air traffic controllers and
aeronautical engineers).
2.2.6 STANLY The STatistic and ANaLYsis) programme

STANLY is a management information system developed by DFS to represent
operational processes. According to the DFS requirements for traffic analysis and
statistics, STANLY acts as a master system that gathers flight plan and radar data
and combines them logically with the current airspace and meteorological data. This
results in an up-to-date picture of the traffic situation over Germany and the
neighbouring regions and airports.
2.3 Real Time Simulation

Real time simulation offers an important opportunity for operational controllers to interact
with the ideas modelled and confirm the validity of the approach chosen. Usually 2 or 3
options from the fast-time simulation results are tested in a real-time simulation and it is
here that the clearest indication of the possibility to realise the forecast capacity increase
is seen.
- 36 -
ANNEX E. Airspace groupings for capacity assessment
When performing a performance prediction it is necessary to consider the evolution of

both the information quality and the reactionary power within the planning time horizon.
In the short term, the potential for modification to the ATM system is usually limited to a
better use of already existing resources using the current system configuration i.e. existing
sector configurations and traffic flows. (low reactionary power). Possible improvements
can normally be predicted with a high level of confidence (high information quality).
As the planning time horizon extends to the medium term (typically 5 years), it is possible
to consider more radical actions such as revised airspace structure, use of improved ATM
technology and additional controllers. In this case, there is more scope for change (high
reactionary power), although the information quality is necessarily lower, because of the
uncertainty associated with the timing of the availability of additional resources and
technology.
Short term Medium term Long term

Enabler
1-2 years 3-5 years 5-20 years
Information quality
Reactionary Power
Planning time horizon

Figure 3: Short v. Medium Term Planning
Therefore, in the medium term, it may no longer be pertinent to report performance

predictions at the level of the existing sector configuration.
It may also be the case that certain airspace structures currently in force may not be
appropriate for use in medium term. For example, the closure of the Kosovo airspace
means that the route structure in place does not provide a relevant baseline for future
performance prediction.
The granularity of the analysis is reduced as the planning time horizon increases, so it
becomes more logical to provide predictions at the level of the ACC or at sector group
level.
In the medium term it is necessary to explore a wider range of scenarios in terms of traffic
growth rates and evolution of the ATM infrastructure. These different levels of analysis
granularity have given rise to FAP concepts such as ACC capacity and the capacity
demand ratio.
- 37 -
The notion of ACC capacity is not an operational one, but was developed to:
 monitor ACC performance year on year (by comparing historical and current data);
 measure ACC plans against future capacity requirements (ACC capacity profiles are
assessed by FAP according to forecast demand and agreed parameters;
 support local capacity planning
 give a managerial review in terms of future expectations and associated resources.
The ACC capacity value is used by the Agency to monitor ACC plans against performance
in the short term and to forecast ACC delay for the next Summer season. It is also used
for the consolidation of the European Medium-Term ATM Network Capacity Plan and to
monitor local plans against the 5 year capacity requirement profiles.
Sector group capacity: The concept of monitoring ACC capacity was developed
because the volume of airspace at ACC level was considered to be more stable than at
sector level, but it is now increasingly evident that there is a need to provide increased
granularity and a more operational approach. The assessment of capacity at sector group
level will facilitate more focussed and operationally driven local capacity plans, and will
enable more dynamic capacity planning and management of the European ATM network
as a whole. It will also provide a certain level of stability in view of future ACC
reorganisation plans.
The concept of monitoring capacity at sector group level necessitates increased flexibility
and a dynamic (and hence more complex) set of scenarios for capacity baseline
assessment and profile calculation. The capacity assessment of the selected sector
groups provides the elementary building blocks that can be combined in various ways,
thus ensuring continuity, coupled with a dynamism not previously possible.
Sector groups need to be selected with care, but once this has been done, the advantage
is evident: the opportunity to compare similar airspace volumes year on year and the
possibility to assess the capacity of dynamic combinations of sector groups, that will
enable ANSPs to determine which grouping offers the optimum capacity for a particular
traffic flow.
The identification of specific sector groups allows an improved level of granularity

that enables ANSPs to plan more effectively to deliver capacity where it is needed,
and at the same time provides stability if airspace is to be reconfigured.
The boundaries of individual sectors and those of ACCs may change, but, if
carefully selected, the sector group boundary should be a constant.
- 38 -
ANNEX F. The Capacity Plan
1. SCOPE......................................................................................................................................40
AIRSPACE.......................................................................................................................................................40
PLANNING TIME HORIZON.............................................................................................................................40
2. OBJECTIVES..........................................................................................................................40
3. FORMULATION OF THE LOCAL CAPACITY PLAN...................................................41
3.1 ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CAPACITY.................................................................................................41

3.1.1 Identification and quantification of any capacity shortfall.......................................................41
3.1.2 Identification and quantification of capacity surplus................................................................41
3.1.3 Note the agreed capacity baseline indicator.............................................................................41
3.2 POTENTIAL TO MEET CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS.................................................................................42
3.2.1 Assess current capacity against the 5 year ECIP capacity profile............................................42
3.2.2 Describe planned capacity enhancement initiatives and quantify benefits...............................42
3.2.3 Determine optimum path to meet the profile.............................................................................42
4. CAPACITY DRIVERS...........................................................................................................43
4.1 OPTIMISE NETWORK UTILISATION........................................................................................................43

4.2 INCREASE SECTOR THROUGHPUT.........................................................................................................44
4.3 INCREASE NUMBER OF SECTORS OPEN.................................................................................................45
5. ENABLERS FOR CAPACITY DRIVERS...........................................................................46
5.1 IMPROVED CONTROLLER CONFIDENCE IN ATFCM..............................................................................46

5.2 DYNAMIC SECTORISATION & FLEXIBLE CONFIGURATION MANAGEMENT...........................................46
5.3 IMPROVED CIVIL MILITARY COORDINATION, FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF FUA...................................46
5.4 REDUCTION IN CONTROLLER WORKLOAD............................................................................................47
5.5 AIRSPACE STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT................................................................................................47
5.6 CONTROLLERS......................................................................................................................................48
5.7 OPERATIONAL PLANNING STAFF & RELEASE OF ACTIVE CONTROLLERS FOR MAJOR PROJECTS..........49
5.8 INFRASTRUCTURE AND SYSTEM SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SECTORS................................................49
5.9 AVAILABLE FREQUENCY WITH REQUIRED COVERAGE AND PROTECTION AREA..................................49
6. COST DATA............................................................................................................................49
7. CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS................................................................................................49
- 39 -
1. Scope
Airspace
The local capacity plan should cover the airspace of each ACC under the responsibility of
the ANSP, including delegated airspace. Terminal Airspace should be given the
appropriate importance, and major airports should be included, depending on the local
organisation.
The airspace covered by the local capacity plan should be consistent with that of the
capacity requirement profiles published in the ECIP.
Planning Time Horizon

 The current 5 year medium term planning cycle
The local capacity plan is updated annually, to include an additional year at the end of the
cycle, however, interim adjustment may be made if parameters change (a capacity plan is
a living document).
2. Objectives
The local capacity plan should enable the ANSP to plan measures to:
1. Cope with the foreseen traffic growth;
2. Reduce current capacity shortfalls and resulting ATFM delays;
3. Manage available capacity more efficiently;
All within a reasonable cost margin and whilst maintaining or improving the overall level of
safety.
The local capacity plan should:

 Interface with network requirements within the European ATM network capacity
planning process;
 Quantify regional traffic growth;
 Quantify current capacity shortfall, if any;
 Be coherent within the range of capacity profiles published in the ECIP;
 Identify, analyse and quantify capacity drivers;
 Identify, analyse and quantify capacity constraints;
 Evaluate capacity enhancing initiatives and quantify benefits;
 Assess the expected future capacity situation;
 Recommend complementary capacity enhancement actions.
- 40 -
3. Formulation of the Local Capacity Plan
Step 1: Assess the current capacity situation for each ACC and selected
sector group:
a) Identify and quantify capacity shortfall and/or bottlenecks in any sector;
b) Where there is no shortfall (i.e. the sector does not generate regular significant
delays), identify and quantify any spare capacity;
c) Note the agreed capacity baseline indicator.
Step 2: Plan to meet future capacity requirements

a) Identify the most appropriate 5 year ECIP capacity profile
b) The current capacity should be assessed against the appropriate 5 year ECIP
capacity profile;
c) Describe planned capacity enhancement initiatives, and quantify the resulting
annual capacity benefit;
d) Determine the optimum path (starting with lowest cost / highest benefit
initiatives) to further increase capacity to meet the profile.
3.1 Assessment of Current Capacity

3.1.1 Identification and quantification of any capacity shortfall.
A capacity shortfall within an ACC is evidenced by an imbalance in the capacity/demand
ratio, that may result in ATFM delays occurring in one or more sectors. The capacity plan
should identify any capacity shortfall at the ACC.
A distinction should be made between a capacity shortfall during peak hours when the
maximum configuration is open and one that exists outside the peak period.
EUROCONTROL provides data on the sectors causing most delay and makes an
assessment of bottleneck areas. The Network Evaluation & Visualisation of ACC
Capacity tool (NEVAC) can be used to identify the most saturated sector and quantify the
shortfall; NEVAC may also be used to assess the efficiency of the sector configurations
used at the ACC and test alternatives.
3.1.2 Identification and quantification of capacity surplus
Capacity surplus at any moment can be quantified by comparing the throughput and the
declared sector capacity or monitoring value over a defined period.
Some capacity surplus outside peak periods is inevitable, if peak hours are to be covered
efficiently. Again a distinction should be made between peak and off-peak times.
3.1.3 Note the agreed capacity baseline indicator
The value of this indicator for ACCs and selected sector groups will have been fully
coordinated with ANSPs. The capacity profiles published in the ECIP give the expected
capacity requirements for the future ATM system, independent of the measured baseline.
However, the required capacity increase is shown as a percentage of the agreed capacity
baseline.
- 41 -
3.2 Potential to meet capacity requirements

3.2.1 Assess current capacity against the 5 year ECIP capacity profile
If there is a current surplus, it may be that capacity will be sufficient to meet the profile for
some or all of the 5 years. With the emphasis on cost containment or reduction, it is
important that costly capacity enhancement initiatives are fully justified.
Any current shortfall, or one that becomes evident within the 5 year capacity planning
cycle, should be quantified and evaluated with respect to the appropriate ECIP capacity
profile.
3.2.2 Describe planned capacity enhancement initiatives and quantify benefits
In addition to local plans and projects expected to have a positive impact on capacity,
capacity enhancement initiatives can be selected from relevant ECIP Implementation
Objectives:
 Airspace structure and ATC procedures” are listed under the abbreviations “ATC”,
“AOM” and “FCM”,
 “Technology” are listed under the abbreviation “DPS”
 “Human factors” are listed under the abbreviation “HUM”.
If there is a current shortfall, particular effort should be made to include short term actions
(even of a temporary nature) to improve capacity of the bottleneck sectors, until longer
term solutions can be implemented.
The national capacity plan should quantify the overall capacity gain each year resulting
from the local capacity enhancement actions planned for the implementation of relevant
ECIP objectives and other national initiatives.
Benefits should be calculated over the project lifetime, and may not be realised until after
completion. The same capacity initiative may bring different benefits for different ANSPs,
depending on the extent of capacity pressure facing the ANSP and the relationship with
other capacity-enhancement projects.
ANSPs use various methodologies for quantification of benefits resulting from capacity
enhancement initiatives. The implementation of new airspace structures or changes in the
mode of operations requires an analysis of the controller’s workload. One method is an
operational estimate of capacity potential by experts; others require the use of analytical
and fast time simulation models. The results of this analysis could be increased sector
capacity values.
Real time simulation offers an important opportunity for operational controllers to interact
with the ideas modelled and confirm the validity of the approach chosen. Usually 2 or 3
options from the fast-time simulation are tested in a real-time simulation and it is here that
the clearest indication of the possibility to realise the expected capacity is seen.
3.2.3 Determine optimum path to meet the profile

Capacity drivers to meet the 5 year capacity requirement profile and their associated
enablers are described in the following chapters.
- 42 -
4. Capacity Drivers
Taking into account the enroute phases of flight, An increase in network capacity can be
achieved (en-route) by 3 initiatives:
1. Optimise network utilisation

2. Increase sector throughput
3. Increase number of sectors open
The enablers for the capacity drivers are listed in paragraphs 4.1 to 4.3. In chapter 5,
each of the enablers is discussed with respect to the associated ECIP objective and any
other means to ensure its implementation.
4.1 Optimise network utilisation

Optimisation of available capacity through management of traffic flows, to better fit
the sectorisation to the traffic flow at any moment in time, so that the capacity is
available where and when it is needed. Traffic flows can change very quickly, so a
flexible, dynamic system and a proactive flow manager are essential.
Enablers:
i. Improved traffic predictability (ETFMS, ATFCM)
ii. System support for dynamic sectorisation
iii. Flexible configuration management
iv. Improved FUA
v. Controller multi-sector validation
vi. Controller support and cooperation
- 43 -
4.2 Increase sector throughput
a) Increase sector productivity of congested sectors, by increasing the monitoring

value without additional changes, i.e. to allow more aircraft per hour into the same
airspace volume before application of ATFM regulation.
Enablers:
i. Improved civil military coordination and full implementation of FUA
ii. Improved controller confidence in ATF(C)M (through increased reliability),
allowing removal or reduction of declared sector capacity ‘buffer’
iii. Reduction in controller workload through:
 reduced complexity through airspace structure development (dualisation of
routes, move of conflict points, more balanced workload)
 implementation of best practice procedures (reduced coordination,
increased efficiency)
 enhanced system support (OLDI, vector prediction, air/ground data link,
ground based safety nets)
iv. Application of a structured contingency plan and controller training
programme (to allow increased sector throughput during contingency
situations). Simulation facility necessary.
b) Restructure congested sectors allowing higher sector throughput, by

reorganising an existing group of sectors to optimise the airspace structure; thus
retaining the same overall number of sectors, but with generally higher declared
sector capacities.
Enablers:
i. Airspace structure development (planning, design, computer modelling, fast-
and/or real time simulation)
ii. Dedicated operational planning staff
iii. Release of active controllers to participate in simulations
- 44 -
4.3 Increase number of sectors open

a) Extend sector opening times (when delays occur outside peak period).
Enablers:
Controllers
b) Create additional sectors (when delays occur during peak period). When
delays occur during maximum configuration because existing sectors or sector
groups become congested, the creation of additional sectors should be
considered.
Enablers:
i. Operational planning staff
ii. Airspace structure development (computer modelling, simulation)
iii. Controllers
iv. Infrastructure (sector suites, system hardware)
v. System capability and support (software)
vi. Available frequency with required coverage and protection
- 45 -
5. Enablers for capacity drivers

This section describes the enablers for the capacity drivers identified in chapter 4 and
suggests means to ensure implementation. The associated ECIP objectives are listed
below each item.
5.1 Improved controller confidence in ATFCM

The implementation of the Network Management Cell at the CFMU has already had a
significant impact, and improved predictability of traffic. The implementation of the
ATFCM strategy and ETFMS (among others) should accelerate progress.
A structured controller ATFM familiarisation training programme would ensure full
awareness of capacity shortfall and delay implications, and the effect of individual actions
downstream. There would be a negative impact on controller operational time.
ECIP Objectives:
FCM01: Implement enhanced tactical flow management services, e.g. through the supply
of correlated position data to the CFMU Enhanced Tactical Flow Management System
(ETFMS).
FCM02: Initial capacity management. Improve ATFCM pre-tactical planning to support
collaboration between the CFMU, Air Traffic Control (ATC) and Flow Management
Positions (FMP)
FCM03: Implement collaborative flight planning. Improve the collaboration between the
CFMU, ANS Providers airports and airspace users in flight plan filing, in particular to assist
airspace users in filing their flight plans and in re-routeings according to the airspace
availability and ATFM situation. Improve flight plan distribution to increase consistency of
flight plan data amongst all parties involved (CFMU, IFPS/ETFMS, ANSPs etc.).
5.2 Dynamic sectorisation & flexible configuration management

This requires considerable flexibility in the system. The flow manager at the ACC must
have a sound knowledge of the airspace and a reliable picture of the expected traffic.
Improvements to ATFCM in the context of the Dynamic Management of European
Airspace framework programme (DMEAN) will enable this. There must exist the flexibility
to reconfigure sectors within short periods, with the full support and cooperation of the
active controllers.
5.3 Improved civil military coordination, full implementation of FUA

Full and proper implementation of FUA would allow significantly increased capacity in
some sectors. The CFMU Network Management Cell has contributed to better use of
available airspace. The Dynamic Management of the European Airspace Network
(DMEAN) Programme will ensure optimum use of shared airspace.
ECIP Objectives:
AOM12: Extend FUA with dynamic airspace management
AOM13: Harmonise Operational Air Traffic (OAT) and General Air Traffic (GAT) handling
AOM16: Extend collaborative civil/military airspace planning with neighbours
AOM17: Implement collaborative civil-military airspace planning at European level
- 46 -
5.4 Reduction in controller workload

Reduction in controller workload can be achieved through:
 Implementation of new applications and/or concepts
 System support to reduce controller workload through automatic coordination
(OLDI/SYSCO), improved HMI and data processing and distribution.
 Full implementation of FUA and airspace structure development, see 5.3 and 5.5.
 Implementation of best practice procedures (silent handover, standing agreements
etc. to reduce coordination).
 Structured contingency plan and controller training programme
ECIP Objectives:
ATC03: Implement automated ground-ground coordination processes
ATC06: Implement ATC air-ground data link services (Phase 1)
ATC07: Implement arrival management tools
ATC122: Implement automated support for conflict detection and conformance monitoring
ATC133: Implement automated support for conflict resolution
ATC14: Implement automated support for departure management
HUM03: Fully integrate human factors into the lifecycle of ATM systems
SUR02: Implement Mode S elementary surveillance
SUR04: Implement Mode S enhanced surveillance
SUR05: Implement ground based surveillance using Automatic Dependent Surveillance
Broadcast (ADS-B) (tentative)
SUR06: Implement Automatic dependent surveillance Contract (ADS-C) to provide and/or
improve surveillance in low air traffic density/non-continental airspace (tentative)
5.5 Airspace Structure Development

The principles for airspace structure development are laid out in the “ECAC Airspace
Planning Manual – Common guidelines”.3 This comprehensive document provides expert
guidance on a wide range of subjects including airspace design, route network
development and sectorisation.
EUROCONTROL can provide expert guidance to ANSPs for airspace structure
development in the form of airspace modelling using the SAAM tool through to fast time
and real time simulation.
The success of major airspace structure development projects depends on:
- structured operational planning, from concept through validation to implementation
- effective coordination with the military and with adjacent ANSPs if necessary
- operational controller input from the early stages
- simulation
2
ECIP Objective Tentative at time of publication
3
Edition 1.0 released 15/05.02. Document Identifier ASM.ET1.ST03.4000.EAPM.01.02 (Contact A. Duchene DAP/APN)
- 47 -
ECIP Objectives:
AOM10: Implement ATS Route Network Version 5 (ARN V5)
AOM14: Implement reorganisation of ECAC airspace to ensure a uniform and simplified

application of ICAO Air Traffic Service classes Flight Level 195 and below.
AOM18: Implement ATS Route Network Version 6 (ARN V6)
AOM17: Implement collaborative civil-military airspace planning at European level
AOM19: Implement the reorganisation of ECAC airspace to reduce the number of ICAO
classifications (modified if necessary) applied in ECAC airspace to only three,
together with accompanying VFR access rules as appropriate.
INF03: Implement improved aeronautical information
5.6 Controllers
 Flexible staff rostering (more controllers in when needed, more productive time)
 Recruitment of ab initio controllers
 Recruitment of licensed (fast track) controllers
 Temporary use of single sector licence. (Enables quicker validation and thus earlier
productivity but should be considered as a temporary measure only. Negative impact
is reduced sector configuration management flexibility).
 Combination of civil and military positions (thereby releasing controllers)
 Improved controller selection and training (lower drop-out rate, less time spent on OJT
for trainees and mentors)
 Improved staff motivation (reduction in sickness rate)
 Cross-training of controllers (mobility between sectors)
 Sufficient operational staff to release active controllers to participate in major planning
projects and simulations.
ECIP Objectives:
HUM01: Timely availability of controllers. Plan, provide and retain timely availability of
controllers at all units and in all associated functions in order to match the changing
requirements of ATM operations, in particular in terms of safety and capacity.
HUM02: Implement the European Air Traffic Controller licensing scheme. Meeting
capacity targets through guaranteed standards of competence for Air Traffic Controllers.
HUM05: Enhance training of ATM staff
- 48 -
5.7 Operational planning staff & release of active controllers for

major projects
Operational planning staff are essential to the development and successful
implementation of any project. Ops planners are normally ex-controllers, but can also be
controllers acting as planners part-time, while continuing active duty. It is often difficult to
fill full-time posts, the acceptance of which normally means a loss of shift pay and
reduction in time-off. Every effort should be made to encourage application for vacant
positions.
In addition to full time planning staff, there should be extensive consultation and
participation of operational controllers at the earliest opportunity in all major projects. This
ensures heightened controller awareness, faster acceptance and a better end product,
and has a direct capacity benefit. The impact is reduced operational controller time.
ECIP Objectives:
HUM01: Timely availability of controllers.
5.8 Infrastructure and System Support for additional sectors
 For additional sectors, sector suites could be taken from existing spare suites, if any.
If not, the cost may be considerable, particularly if a system upgrade is required.
5.9 Available Frequency with required coverage and protection area
Frequency requests should be made to the ICAO EANPG FMG 4. The EUROCONTROL
programmes for implementation and extension of 8.33 kHz channel spacing in European
airspace were created to facilitate VHF spectrum release in the currently congested 8.33
kHz and 25 kHz bands.
ECIP Objectives:
COM03: Implement 8.33 kHz channel spacing above FL195
COM07: Improve the management and optimise the operational use of the aeronautical
frequency assignments in allocated radio bands
6. Cost Data
The cost of the planned resources for capacity enhancement initiatives and projects need
to be identified and the total cost broken down by ACC or sector group to enable
economic modelling.
Capacity drivers range from no cost (e.g. a direct increase to declared sector capacities
with no other changes being implemented), to the highest cost for the creation of
additional sectors, requiring additional controllers, infrastructure and systems.
Actual cost depends on what is currently available at the ACC in the way of available
system functionality, spare sector suites as opposed to purchase, and the possibility of
staff redeployment rather than recruitment.
7. Capacity Constraints
The local plan should mention specific local capacity constraints such as military airspace,
environmental and institutional limitations, congested airports, etc.
4
International Civil Aviation Organisation / European Air Navigation Planning Group / Frequency Management Group
- 49 -

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CAPACITY PLANNING ASSESSMENT & GUIDANCE

1. SCOPE OF THE DOCUMENT...............................................................................................3

1.1. HISTORY AND EVOLUTION OF CAPACITY PLANNING............................................................................3

2. THE CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS.............................................................................4

2.1. A PERFORMANCE-DRIVEN PROCESS AT NETWORK LEVEL....................................................................4

3. NETWORK PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (AS USED IN ONE ICAO REGION......5

3.1. AVERAGE ATFM DELAY PER FLIGHT...................................................................................................5

4. CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS WORKFLOW............................................................6

5. METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS FUTURE CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS....................8

5.1 ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CAPACITY: THE CAPACITY BASELINE.........................................................9

6 THE CAPACITY PLANNING WORK PROGRAMME...................................................21

6.1 ACTIONS, DEADLINES AND RESPONSIBILITIES....................................................................................21

7 CAPACITY PLANNING – THE BROADER VIEW..........................................................28

ANNEX A. LIST OF ACRONYMS...........................................................................................................32

ANNEX B. COMMONLY UNDERSTOOD DEFINITIONS.................................................................34

ANNEX C. THE CAPACITY PLANNING CALENDAR......................................................................35

ANNEX D. EUROCONTROL SUPPORT FOR LOCAL CAPACITY PLANNING..........................36

ANNEX E. AIRSPACE GROUPINGS FOR CAPACITY ASSESSMENT..........................................41

ANNEX F. The Capacity Plan.....................................................................................................................43

1. Scope of the Document

1.1. History and Evolution of Capacity Planning

2. The European Capacity Planning Process

3. European Network Performance Indicators

3.2. Effective Capacity

4. Capacity Planning Process Workflow

Figure 1: The Annual Capacity Planning Process

Tra ffic & De la y

Asse ssm e nt o f Future ACC

LCIP Ca p a c ity Ne two rk

Im p le m e nta tio n Euro p e a n Me d ium Te rm

5. Methodology to Assess Future Capacity Requirements

Figure 2: Key FAP processes:

Assessment of current capacity: the Capacity Baseline

Method Advantages Disadvantages Comment

capacity, only potential

5.1.1 Reverse CASA: for ACCs with a capacity shortfall (delay

Figure 4: NEVAC (FACET) methodology

Demand for TVs in the studied ACC

YES Adjust capacities of outside regulations

Modified Traffic + Corresponding Total Delays in all the ACCs

ACC capacity indicator

5.2 Expected Demand on the Future Route Network

5.2.1 Forecast Traffic Growth

5.2.2 Flight Increase Process (FIPS) and Airport capacity constraints

Clone the flight

Clone the flight

Clone another Unaccommodated

5.2.3 Future Route Network Evolution and Traffic Distribution

5.3 Cost Data and Economic Modelling

supported by CRCO analysis and confirmed in the 7 th Performance Review Report

5.3.1 Capacity / Delay / Demand interaction and the Cost model

Figure : The Capacity/Delay Curve

Capacity (flights per hour)

All the graphs are valid for a given

M€ a) The cost of delay is derived from

Capacity (flights per hour)

Capacity Cost (b)

Capacity (flights per hour)

b) The cost of Air Traffic Services, as